Anecdotal Climate & Weather Roundup

Seattle has coldest first week of June since 1891

Seattle just experienced the coldest first week of June, according to climate records dating to 1891, said Cliff Mass, University of Washington metrologist. Both 1999 and 2008 share the record, with 1917 falling in second place, he said. “Just wait until tomorrow,” he said, when temperatures are going to be even colder.

Story here:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2004466972_webweather09m.html

Missoula water park closing due to cold weather ‘to protect children from hypothermia’

Missoula water park closing for week due to cold weather

Associated Press – June 9, 2008 8:24 PM ET MISSOULA, Mont. (AP) – The Missoula Parks and Recreation Department has decided to close the Splash Montana Waterpark this week, because cold weather is forecast.

Story here:

http://www.montanasnewsstation.com/Global/story.asp?S=8454678&nav=menu227_7

Lobsterman: ““Global warming is having the opposite effect for us”

Costs up, prices down

Water temperature played a big part in the last minute scramble that closed the season with temperatures falling so low the lobsters were not crawling.

In order for the lobsters to crawl into a trap the water has to be at least over the 40-degree mark and Crouse said the spring season has hardly any times when the conditions are right.

“Our spring is just not viable,” he said. “Global warming is having the opposite effect for us and we are seeing the temperatures of the water stay lower for longer.”

Story here:

http://www.novanewsnow.com/article-220834-Costs-up-prices-down.html

Aspen to reopen this June for Skiing

Story here:

http://www.9news.com/news/article.aspx?storyid=93380&catid=188

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Jeff Alberts
June 10, 2008 8:20 am

“Seattle has coldest first week of June since 1891”
And it doesn’t look like the second week will be any different. Still raining and still under 50f.
My wife and I are supposed to go camping from the 20th to the 23rd out on the Olympic peninsula, if it’s this cold we’ll be huddling in the tent the whole time.
Hmm, maybe the cold is a good thing 😉

BarryW
June 10, 2008 8:54 am

Please send some of that east! D.C. is about ready to melt. Too bad there’s air-conditioning or Congress would be long gone which would be some compensation.

June 10, 2008 8:54 am

Last year at this time on the front range of Colorado, it was really, really hot for at least a month. This year, we are running our furnaces at night. That’s not a trend, that’s just the way it is.
However, it occurs to me that if the current cooling continues, and with the politically manufactured energy crisis we are having to endure, we are in big trouble.

Diatribical Idiot
June 10, 2008 9:33 am

As I was driving home yesterday I heard a radio report from the East Coast. I am paraphrasing, but I’ll try to get the report as accurate as possible from memory:
Reporter: “The sweltering temperatures in New York has some experts suggesting that this is a strong indication of global climate change”
Supposed expert: “This is raising some eyebrows, because these temperatures are so elevated at such an early point in the season, that this is a strong indicator of the effects of climate change.”
I thought my head was going to explode. I can’t tell you how many anecdotal stories I shared with AGW proponents this winter from all over the world, and then the NOAA maps, and then the actual declining temperature results, and here’s what I hear: “Anecdoatal evidence isn’t science…” “One month doesn’t mean anything…” “One year doesn’t mean anything…” “Ten years doesn’t mean anything…”
But, by God, we get a sweltering weekend out East, and it’s indicative of “climate change.” Pay no attention to the West Coast or the last 6 months. Nothing to see there. Move along…

Diatribical Idiot
June 10, 2008 9:36 am

Oh, and sorry about the double-comment, but I had intended to add that, since I know Anthony has better things to do than spend a lot of time looking at the GISS temps, I do have updated charts and observations of the data here: http://digitaldiatribes.wordpress.com/2008/06/09/june-2008-update-on-global-temperature-giss/ for anyone interested.

Pierre Gosselin
June 10, 2008 9:44 am

Okay, these stories are little more than unaverage events and anecdotes. After all, according to AGW believers, these things weren’t supposed to happen.
I think keeping an eye on what the arctic ice cap does this summer (trend) may provide clues if these anomalies are part of a bigger northern cooling trend.
I still hate anecdotes.

JP
June 10, 2008 10:25 am

Classic La Nina/Cold PDO

Andrew Upson
June 10, 2008 10:26 am

I miss Arizona. By early March I was wearing short sleeves to work and by May the pool about the right temperature.
Now that I’m in Seattle I’m having to run the heat at night in the third floor apartment I’m temporarially staying in. And wear PJ’s and use the blanket. It’s freaking COLD! And it’s freaking JUNE! I should be questioning my sanity for moving to this town on account of almost no homes having air conditioning while trying to figure out how to be comfortable sleeping in a hot house. Now I’m only left with questioning my sanity for moving here on account of the politics of the town. And the rain.
Darn you Al Gore! I want my global warming, and I want it now.
Something tells me I won’t be hunting elk in short sleeves this year (I actually would occasionally strip down to the short sleeves in the afternoon while elk hunting in AZ, even at 7000′ elevation).

Pierre Gosselin
June 10, 2008 11:15 am

If I’m not mistaken, Seattle /Washington state is huge nest for green wackos and Birkenstock-wearing granola earters. Hopefully this chill will cool their AGW fever a couple of degrees.
How is the local media coping with this inconvenient situation?

Pierre Gosselin
June 10, 2008 11:17 am

Arctic sea ice is at about the same level as last year.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg
Shouldn’t sea ice be increasing as the PDO gets cool?

vauss
June 10, 2008 11:24 am

In Valdez Alaska things are looking decidedly chilly and unseasonal. Lots of snow on the mountains around town down to levels I have not seen in the past 18 years of living here. At least it has melted in the valley. Mostly. In the Thompson pass not only is there lots of snow still, but so much that it actually looks like not all of it will melt this season.
I can’t help remembering what I tell my geology students when we go up on the high school roof to look around…”15,000 years ago where you are standing was buried under 3,000 feet of ice.”
It will be interesting to see how the Arctic ice pack is this summer compared to last year. So far it is 200,000 square kilometers more than 2007.

Leon Brozyna
June 10, 2008 11:25 am

October 12/13, 2006 – Buffalo and environs, in a band stretching to Rochester, NY, experienced 2 feet of heavy wet snow. It is still referred to as the October surprise storm. Brought down tens of thousands of trees, most still having their leaves which gave more surface area for the wet snow to cling to. This is the type of event that prompts most people to seek an explanation for why the weather was so extreme. The simplest explanation of it just being something that happened, though true, is never satisfying. And of course the AGW converts were pointing to this as an example of how AGW causes extreme weather events. Must be nice to have a theory which allows for every event to serve as proof of the theory’s validity.

Bill
June 10, 2008 11:33 am

BarryW,
Agreed, I actually wimped out and did not run last night, but then, I’m old now so …
It has been REALLY hot this week, supposed to break tonight, then temps return to normal.

austin
June 10, 2008 12:01 pm

“Lobster Season Has Slowed to a Crawl”

austin
June 10, 2008 12:02 pm

Today’s GFS/MRF has a winter-type trough setting up over the Pacific in day 9/10.

JP
June 10, 2008 12:03 pm

“Shouldn’t sea ice be increasing as the PDO gets cool?”
Not necessairily, or at least not all at once. If the PDO remains fixed in a negative mode for 20-30 years, then yes it is likely that over time sea will increase. But currently, very warm North Atlantic Waters are keeping the Greenland coast and some of the artic circle ice free. It is rare to see all of our oceans all cooling at the same time (not a nice thought).
It could turn out that the current PDO will flip back to warm in a few years. We will just have to wait and see.

June 10, 2008 1:12 pm

Here in Norway it has been much warmer and drier than usual for almost 3 weeks now, after a cold mid-May. It isn’t cold everywhere, but the development is indeed interesting.

papertiger
June 10, 2008 1:31 pm

It’s the soot landing on the snow causing the Arctic sea ice melts. If/when the Chinese and Euros install scrubbers on their factories the Arctic will rebound within a year. The only question is do we want the Arctic ice back?
Negative feedback over the vast area mitigated by black carbon, when the Sun is in remission, might lead to more climate change then the econazi have bargained for.

AW
June 10, 2008 3:17 pm

The other day in BC, Canada we tied a record low temperature of 11.1 C not seen since June 6th 1954. It’s been unseasonably cold and rainy here.
http://www.canada.com/theprovince/news/story.html?id=c9138be9-b23b-41c4-bfea-97a6f45fda02

Jared
June 10, 2008 3:47 pm

Carston…
It looks like Norway and most of Europe is headed into a cooler spell now, though.

Don B
June 10, 2008 4:13 pm

More cold anecdotes (snow photos) from eastern Washington’s WSU this morning:
http://www.wsutoday.wsu.edu/pages/Publications.asp?Action=Detail&PublicationID=12357&PageID=

Howard From Austin
June 10, 2008 4:59 pm

OTOH, Texas is having a heat wave….
Looking at just the first 9 days of June, the average monthly temperature is running between 5 and 9 degrees above normal! At Austin Camp Mabry, the average temperature so far is 88.4 degrees, which is 9.1 degrees above normal. This is running well above the hottest June on record that occurred in 1998, when the average temperature was 86.4 degrees. This is quite remarkable! The temperature has already reached or exceeded 100 degrees 8 times this year. Going back to 1897, this ties for the 4th most 100+ degree readings for May and all of June.
Full article here:
http://www.statesman.com/sitelife/content/sitelife/persona.html?plckPersonaPage=PersonaBlog&plckUserId=1920536&newspaperUserId=1920536&sid=sitelife.statesman.com

swampie
June 10, 2008 5:06 pm

Currently on the northeast coast of Florida, it is 68 degrees.

swampie
June 10, 2008 5:06 pm

Last year, though, we were pretty warm when the Okefenokee swamp burned in May.

Ken
June 10, 2008 5:29 pm

Spokane, WA just saw it’s coldest record low ever for June 10th, 36*F.
And the first time in records (going back to 1881)…that snow has ever fallen in June!
Wow! And it’s 11 days from summer?!!
May be for the East Coast….this evidence is OVERPOWERING.

Editor
June 10, 2008 5:48 pm

Hey, a thread where we can talk about Pierre behind his back. 🙂 Oh, uh, “Hi Pierre!”
Adding to the anecdotal evidence du jour:
Today’s high here, 98.7F (the official high 8 miles away in Concord NH will be 98.1F) is the highest temperature in my 4.6 year record. The other >= 95.0F temperatures were one each in 2005, 2006, and 2007.
I hate hot weather, but fortunately a cold front comes through tonight, so today is the fourth and last day of the heat wave. As with all anecdotal evidence, take it with a grain of salt. And iced tea. And air conditioning.
I didn’t move to New England until around the time of the PDO flip in the 1970s, so I don’t have a good living memory of climate then.

June 10, 2008 7:13 pm

Pierre: Where’d you hear that the PDO drives Arctic sea ice area? Here’s a graph that illustrates Inverted Arctic Sea Ice Concentration and Arctic surface temperature (land and ocean) from 1870 to 2006. Sure does look like the upward trend in Arctic temperature that starts in 1965 agrees with the decline in sea ice. While there are other influences, it still looks like Arctic temperature helps drive it. Note that I didn’t have to scale that graph. It lined up all on its own. http://i27.tinypic.com/259ydt3.jpg Taking a second look at the graph, the Arctic sea ice may start to decrease as early as 1950. I’d have to smooth that data, maybe tomorrow.
JP: The AMO appears to have peaked in 2005, which would mean North Atlantic temperatures should also be decreasing. This decrease would be very slight on an annual basis. If the smoothed peak-to-trough AMO temperature change is on the order of 0.4 deg C and it takes 30 years to get there, that’s only 0.013 deg C per year.

Brian D
June 10, 2008 7:33 pm

Check out this SST anomaly loop.(90 days)
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom_loop.gif
SST loop
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_loop.gif
Notice the northward drift of warmer water.

austin
June 10, 2008 9:54 pm

Texas (North) here as well.
March and April were very cold. I had to replant my Sudan and corn did not emerge until late April. Almost all the Sudan is way behind schedule and is still not more than 1 inch tall. Usually we’d have our first cutting.
June has been warm, but we have yet to hit 100 degrees here and its been wet – we are at twice our normal rainfall for the entire month already
In 1998, it was very bad – 100+ every day in may and june with heavy smoke from Mexico.
It looks like it will be a Mast Year at least in North Texas. All my Oak trees are carrying heavy loads of acorn buds.

Pamela Gray
June 10, 2008 10:39 pm

The passes into Wallowa County, Oregon are still clogged with snow. So far, the month of June has been colder than May and much colder than this time last year. It is now clear that we will not be getting three cuttings on hay. Two at the most. The old timers are comparing these temps to trends in the past and are predicting a few years at least of hard winters and short summers. Farmers and ranchers have learned not to wait on scientists and years of data. They play the risks and rise or fall with the outcome. They “read” their crop and just know. The lushness, height, color, smell, etc, all say something about the sun this year and next. They look at the coat on their animals and “read” the signs. They count the number of birds coming in and prepare for the winter to come when they see and read the signs from the first robin. They even count bats. Bats tell us what to do to prepare for the next winter. The old timers are telling me that it will be colder this winter.

sandy winder
June 11, 2008 12:13 am

Pierre Gosselin (09:44:15) :
“Okay, these stories are little more than unaverage events and anecdotes. After all, according to AGW believers, these things weren’t supposed to happen.”
Where did you hear that? I understood that the AGW believers suggested that there would be far more freaky weather as a result of climate change. More extremes in temperatures. More floods and more droughts.
The way I see it, this is being borne out by the facts

Ken
June 11, 2008 12:41 am

A colder climate almost sounds like romanticism…like in art and expression of the Little Ice Age.
Almost like we want the earth to change (not…actually it’s pretty damn nice right now relatively speaking)…
So that we can edure life’s many varieties (i.e. weather…tendencies of weather)…and to feel the grasp of earth’s control over us.
We, the global climate skeptics…may not wish for cold but all of us disagree with the null hypothesis that is global warming because of a bias in data accumulation, political interests, and the fearful tactics used. We really want sensible discussion to make our voices be heard…about something we find fascinating and important.
Saying that AGW is over – definitely pulls at the strings of belief and trust in the earth/sun’s own abilities: to never stay constant, and being unpredictable. It’s the way we’ve always liked it. Of course some in the path of a huriccane might say otherwise. It’s about survival. It’s about man vs. nature. It’s the thrill of being human….fighting against that which you have no control. Or…at least wondering about it.

June 11, 2008 1:07 am

Brian D,
latest SST charts looking very interesting and puts the anecdotal comments into perspective, the Indian Ocean is now out of its short cooling spell and warming rapidly, the Atlanic Ocean is much warmer than it should be and the tropical Pacific is out of La Nina. The only noteworthy anomoly is the PDO cool phase wich explains the poor weather in the pacific north west (I thought this was normal for Seattle, on Frasier it is always raining!!). During this extremely quiet period of solar activity shouldnt we be expecting a global cooling rather than a localised area?

Pamela Gray
June 11, 2008 5:54 am

If the theory of cycle coalescence holds true (sun, PDO, etc), global cooling will occur here and there, depending on the landscape, and the timing of these various cycles occurring together.

Editor
June 11, 2008 6:01 am

Mike K (01:07:39) :
“During this extremely quiet period of solar activity shouldnt we be expecting a global cooling rather than a localised area?”
We are – the four main sources of global temperature summaries have been reporting a cooling trend for the last year or two. Anecdotal evidence is good for two things:
1) Alerting people to the possibility that something interesting is going on.
2) Providing examples of what a new trend might be bringing.
The current use for anecdotal evidence is primarily for amusement and discussion around the water cooler.

swampie
June 11, 2008 6:53 am

It’s early days yet, but the farmers in the grainbelt are really getting hammered. In places where replanting is necessary, grain yields are predicted to be halved. For those of us that have livestock to feed, it appears that the price of feed will be going up further.

Jeff Alberts
June 11, 2008 8:20 am

Ken said:

Saying that AGW is over – definitely pulls at the strings of belief and trust in the earth/sun’s own abilities:

I’m saying AGW has never really started, much less over.

David S
June 11, 2008 9:28 am

“By DONNA GORDON BLANKINSHIP, Associated Press Writer
Wed Jun 11, 8:03 AM ET
LONGMIRE, Wash. – One hiker died on Mount Rainier and two others awaited rescue Wednesday after a freak June blizzard caught them high on the volcano’s flank.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080611/ap_on_re_us/mount_rainier_fatal_8

David S
June 11, 2008 9:32 am

It seems that if I include a link to this story the spam filter kicks it out. So I’ll just post the story. Google it for the source.
“By DONNA GORDON BLANKINSHIP, Associated Press Writer
Wed Jun 11, 8:03 AM ET
LONGMIRE, Wash. – One hiker died on Mount Rainier and two others awaited rescue Wednesday after a freak June blizzard caught them high on the volcano’s flank.”

Stan Needham
June 11, 2008 9:46 am

I still hate anecdotes.
Yeah, Pierre, anecdotes, by themselves, are worth about as much as a bucket of warm spit. The problem is they just keep coming.

JP
June 11, 2008 12:16 pm

Bob.
Thanks for the post. The Atlantic AMO did peak a few years ago, but I do believe the AMO is still in a positive phase. I think it should remain positive for maybe another decade. Correct me if I’m wrong.
Also, it should be very interesting to watch ENSO the next 12 months. It looks like it is transitioning to ENSO neutral, and we should see another EL Nino within another 12 months or so. If the next El Nino is as weak and short lived as the last one, the negative PDO could turn out to be a 2 or 3 decade event. During the transition from La Nina to El Nino it will be interesting to see if Joe Bastardi’s theory concerning “teleconnection signaling” will occur. Joe B. believes there are some cases where teleconnections can signal each other (how? I have no clue). In this case, a warming Pacific could “signal” the Atlantic, and the Atlantic would correspondingly cool to offset rising Pacific SSTs. Sounds far-feteched.

SteveSadlov
June 11, 2008 1:13 pm

RE: Pamela Gray (22:39:19) :
Here in NoCal, while we’ve had a reprieve from the cold the past few days (it’s almost, strangely, Indian Summer like), the squirrels are extremely active, as if it were fall. Except, there are only immature acorns. Meanwhile, the raccoons savaged one of my apple trees recently – again, something far more typical of fall. Last year, along the entire West Coast, climatic Fall was ushered in by an extremely early Yukon cold front on July 30th. Could it be that climatic Fall will start this year in June?

June 11, 2008 2:36 pm

Climate change
First they said we’d freeze
in the nineteen seventies.
Then they said we’d burn
from the nineteen nineties on.
Oops, I’m starting to sneeze;
I guess it’s back to freeze.
Reply:
There once a poet name Sam
His posts not regarded as spam
He posts as he please
But he started to sneeze
‘Cuz the Sun’s hiding out on the lam.
~jeez

June 11, 2008 2:53 pm

poetSam, befuddled and blushing from the attention, reconsiders his hobby.

Admin
June 11, 2008 3:06 pm

I was about to write another limerick response, after all jeez does rhyme with sneeze, but I actually have to do some “work” so you and everyone else are spared.
…for now

June 11, 2008 3:12 pm

Since you leave the field to the idle, I will take advantage:
Anthony’s the man;
Smart, kind, and well-reasoned.
He’s a man, a weatherman,
for each and every season.

Admin
June 11, 2008 3:20 pm

Idle schmidle.
There once was an admin named jeez
who commented on poet Sam’s sneeze.
We know when Watt is away
the admins will play
bringing the site to its knees.

June 11, 2008 3:49 pm

Please jeeze,
you make me wheeze.
Since you have more wit
I quit!

James
June 11, 2008 10:23 pm

Getting cold in New Zealand too (not that GISS will know as they don’t acknowledge the New Zealand North Island’s existance!
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/4/story.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=10515979

Editor
June 12, 2008 5:49 am

That solar science conference with the “Sun is dead” quote was held at Montana State Univ. in Bozeman on June 1-6. Temps then were seasonable, yesterday was 17 degrees below average with a low of 32F. Too bad the conference wasn’t this week. 🙂
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBZN/2008/6/11/DailyHistory.html

David S
June 12, 2008 12:17 pm

Interesting speech in congress on CFL light bulbs.
http://youtube.com:80/watch?v=e-LOtKIIKcg

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