Confirming what many of us have already noted from the anecdotal evidence coming in of a much cooler than normal May, such as late spring snows as far south as Arizona, extended skiing in Colorado, and delays in snow cover melting, (here and here), the University of Alabama, Huntsville (UAH) published their satellite derived Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit data set of the Lower Troposphere for May 2008.
It is significantly colder globally, colder even than the significant drop to -0.046°C seen in January 2008.
The global ∆T from April to May 2008 was -.195°C
UAH
2008 1 -0.046
2008 2 0.020
2008 3 0.094
2008 4 0.015
2008 5 -0.180
Compared to the May 2007 value of 0.199°C we find a 12 month ∆T is -.379°C.
But even more impressive is the change since the last big peak in global temperature in January 2007 at 0.594°C, giving a 16 month ∆T of -0.774°C which is equal in magnitude to the generally agreed upon “global warming signal” of the last 100 years.
Click for a larger image
Reference: UAH lower troposphere data
I’m betting that RSS (expected soon) will also be below the zero anomaly line, since it tends to agree well with UAH. HadCRUT will likely show a significant drop, I’m going to make a SWAG and say it will end up around 0.05 to -0.15°C. GISS; I’m not going to try a SWAG, as it could be anything. Of course anomalies can change to positive on the next El Nino, but this one seems to be deepening.
Update 06/05/08: Per MattN’s suggestion, changed link above for snow melt to news stories from previous link to National Snow and Ice Center
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It looks like Going-to-the-Sun Highway might open this week. Latest since 1943, which was due to the war. Sounds like they have a lot of snow and it is not leaving very fast. Still have some snow on the higher mts around Helena.
Interesting since La Nina was wanning snce March and ENSO went neutral in June. Could this just be a lingering of the last La Nina, or perhaps something we are not understanding?
All of you people are just silly. The chart itself shows an upward trend both for the high and lows. Yes, weather is variable. Yes, it gets colder and hotter at times.
Yes, the trend shown in the graph at the top shows it’s getting warmer.
Learn to read a graph before you use the data to show cooling.
Hawaii’s trade winds have inexplicably died down this year. Hilo HI has set record highs 5 times this summer. Global warming and climate change predicts that some areas will get warmer, others cooler, depending on how the winds and other conditions affect them.
Overall, though, as your “debunking graph” shows, it’s getting warmer, not cooler.
“Lennart,
You never explained why accepting one year’s cooling is faulty reasoning, but 19 years of minimal warming is perfectly acceptable.”
“accepting”? I have, multiple times, explained why one years cooling does not offset 19 years of warming as a trend.
“If all you want is someone to admit that warming has occurred over the last 20 year period, I’ll give it to you — it has.”
Good. Then we agree.
Pierre, too bad inflation has more than doubled under bush and unemployment has as well. But I applaud you.
And guys, using one month to discuss climate isn’t what climate is. If I were you I’d read up a bit on the definition of the work CLIMATE vs. WEATHER.
I’d also look into factors surrounding lows in certain months, you’d be surprised to find out that 1992 correlates with the eruption of mount pinutubo, which spread a pretty large ash plume into the sky… remember all the beautiful sunsets?
As others have said above, the uncertainty associated with it shows that the down spike actually isn’t that statistically significant and is at worst at baselevel. Regardless if you plot a trend line through the center of it there is still an upward trend.