While the forecast for the Atlantic Hurricane season is active and for 12-16 named storms, the Pacific forecast is just in time to coincide with recent pronouncements of no link between global warming and hurricane frequency, this just in:
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE – May 22, 2008
*** NEWS FROM NOAA ***
NATIONAL OCEANIC & ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
WASHINGTON, DC
Contact: Carmeyia Gillis 301-763-8000, ext. 7163
NOAA Predicts a Below-Normal Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center today
announced that projected climate conditions point
to a below-normal hurricane season in the eastern Pacific this year.
“Living in a coastal state means having a
plan for each and every hurricane season. Review
or complete emergency plans now – before a storm
threatens,” said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C.
Lautenbacher, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce
for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.
“Planning and preparation is the key to storm survival and recovery.”
The Climate Prediction Center outlook
calls for a 70 percent probability of a below
normal season, a 25 percent probability of a near
normal season, and a 5 percent probably of an above normal season.
Allowing for forecast uncertainties,
seasonal hurricane forecasters estimate a 60 to
70 percent chance of 11 to 16 named storms,
including five to eight hurricanes and one to
three major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5 on
the Saffir-Simpson scale).
An average eastern Pacific hurricane
season produces 15 to 16 named storms, with nine
becoming hurricanes and four to five becoming major hurricanes.
Among the factors influencing this year’s
eastern Pacific outlook are the multi decadal
signal – the atmospheric conditions that have
decreased hurricane activity over the eastern
Pacific Ocean since 1995 – and the expected
lingering effects of La Niña.
“La Nin?a conditions have weakened since
February and may become neutral by summer’s end,”
said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane
forecaster at the center. “We typically see less
hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific when La Nin?a is active or neutral.”
“The outlook is a general guide to the
overall seasonal hurricane activity,”
Lautenbacher said. “It does not predict whether,
where or when any of these storms may hit land.
That is the job of the National Hurricane Center after a storm forms.”
Bill Read, director of NOAA’s National
Hurricane Center, said, “Our forecasters are
ready to track any tropical cyclone, from a
depression to a hurricane, which forms in the
eastern Pacific. We urge coastal residents to
have a hurricane plan in place before the season
begins and NHC will continue to provide the best possible forecast.”
Eastern Pacific tropical storms most
often track westward over open waters, sometimes
reaching Hawaii and beyond. However, some
occasionally head toward the northeast, and may
bring rainfall to the arid southwestern United
States during the summer months. Also, during any
given season, one or two tropical storms can
affect western Mexico or Central America.
Residents, businesses, and government agencies of
coastal and near-coastal regions should always
prepare prior to each and every hurricane season
regardless of the seasonal hurricane outlook.
The eastern Pacific hurricane season runs
from May 15 through November 30, with peak
activity from July through September.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, an agency of the U.S. Commerce
Department, is dedicated to enhancing economic
security and national safety through the
prediction and research of weather and
climate-related events and information service
delivery for transportation, and by providing
environmental stewardship of our nation’s coastal
and marine resources. Through the emerging Global
Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA
is working with its federal partners, more than
70 countries and the European Commission to
develop a global monitoring network that is as
integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.
On the Web:
NOAA Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/Epac_hurricane.html
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center: http://www.hurricanes.gov/
– 30 –
Uh, I’ll take the over.
D’Aleo on the subject if focussed more on Atlantic:
http://www.intellicast.com/Community/Content.aspx?a=129
Not sure it is good news considering that they over estimated the last 2 years.
I’m with Gary
Based on the recent success rate of these predictions I think people should evacuate coastal areas at once.
Why don’t they just stop issuing the forecasts? Does anyone listen to them anymore?
The just ended SH cyclone season around Australia was the quietest in at least 20 years, after model predictions of a well above average season. Prediction was for 6+ landfalls. We got one, barely cat 1, storm.
The models were completely wrong, and we may well be seeing a cyclical decline in hurricane/cyclone frequency due to PDO, AMO, etc.
Note, hurricanes are called cyclones or tropical cyclones in the SH and tropics.
In contrast to NOAA’s prediction, Colorado State’s Klotzbach and Gray forecast an above average hurricane season for the East Coast. Dr. Gray has been a leading hurricane expert for years, but has deferred to his associate as he spends more time on the global warming issue.
http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2008/april2008/apr2008.pdf
While it would make me very happy to have the same kind of hurricane season as last year, we Floridians do need to have the tropical rains that the storms bring. I’m hoping for depressions. I’m sure Georgia would be right happy to see a nice tropical depression as well.
Predicting the hurricane season is like predicting the earth’s general climate in 50 years. Keep guessing and eventually you’ll get lucky and get it right.
Don B (14:14:06) :
“In contrast to NOAA’s prediction, Colorado State’s Klotzbach and Gray forecast an above average hurricane season for the East Coast.”
NOAA’s prediction, at least in the context of this post was for the Pacific East Coast, not the Atlantic.
I don’t know beans about the Pacific, but I’d assume that a negative PDO with its cold current along the coast would make life challenging for eastern Pacific storms. The main connecton between the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Hurricanes is that La Nina is associated with less vertical shear, and TCs can’t handle shear. El Ninos bring shear, and a developing El Nino can clobber a hurricane season.
The Klotzbach/Gray forecast in April used a new forecasting scheme they say worked much better in hindcasting. Their next update will be on June 3rd. It will be interesting to see if the negative PDO has impacts beyond the prevalence of fewer El Ninos and more La Ninas.
One thing I like about their forecasts and season review is their openness when things go wrong.
Given the record over the past several years, I’ld be worried this year.
Good news for the West coast is bad news for the East. It’s pretty well known that the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic and Pacific basins is usual close to the same number each year. Active Pacific=InActive Atlantic. And vice-versa…
Here is NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane season forecast issued on May 22. I’m not real fond of theirs as they have a marvelously vague patina. E.g. the report says “The Climate Prediction Center’s 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls a 90% probability of a near-normal or above-normal hurricane season.” If they only added below normal, they could claim 100%. The Klotzbach/Gray forecasts emphsize the expected numbers, not the error bars, and are more interesting reading to boot. NOAA seems to want to take some of the wind from the sails and posts their forecasts a few days earlier than Kotzbach/Gray.