La Nina and Pacific Decadal Oscillation Cool the Pacific
Click here to view full image (228 kb)
“The shift in the PDO can have significant implications for global climate, affecting Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activity, droughts and flooding around the Pacific basin, the productivity of marine ecosystems, and global land temperature patterns. ” – NASA JPL
A cool-water anomaly known as La Niña occupied the tropical Pacific Ocean throughout 2007 and early 2008. In April 2008, scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory announced that while the La Niña was weakening, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation—a larger-scale, slower-cycling ocean pattern—had shifted to its cool phase.
This image shows the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Pacific Ocean from April 14–21, 2008. The anomaly compares the recent temperatures measured by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) on NASA’s Aqua satellite with an average of data collected by the NOAA Pathfinder satellites from 1985–1997. Places where the Pacific was cooler than normal are blue, places where temperatures were average are white, and places where the ocean was warmer than normal are red.
The cool water anomaly in the center of the image shows the lingering effect of the year-old La Niña. However, the much broader area of cooler-than-average water off the coast of North America from Alaska (top center) to the equator is a classic feature of the cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The cool waters wrap in a horseshoe shape around a core of warmer-than-average water. (In the warm phase, the pattern is reversed).
See the entire story here:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=18012
See the PRESS RELEASE from JPL here:
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2008-066
Look out California agriculture. The wine industry, fruits and nut growers will be hit with a shorter growing season and more threats of frost, among other things.
Recently in Nevada County, much of their grape crop was wiped out. From The Union in Nevada County (h/t Russ Steele)
Nevada County’s agricultural commissioner will seek disaster relief from the state after tens of thousands of dollars worth of crops were ruined from last week’s freezing temperatures.
Orchard trees, wine grapes and pastures were hardest hit, Pylman said. The commissioner is compiling a report of damages that he will send to the state Office of Emergency Services in coming weeks.
“Growers don’t have anything to harvest. That’s a disaster in my mind,” Pylman said.
In Paradise, CA, Noble Orchards reports damage to their Apple crop from recent colder weather, as well as reports of issue with vineyards in the Paradise ridge area suffering from frost damage recently.
Here is a short history of PDO phase shifts:
In 1905, PDO switched to a warm phase.
In 1946, PDO switched to a cool phase.
In 1977, PDO switched to a warm phase.
California agriculture has ridden a wave of success on that PDO warm phase since 1977, experiencing unprecedented growth. Now that PDO is shifting to a cooler phase, areas that supported crops during the warm phase may no longer be able to do so.
Newsweek’s Sharon Begley is a true believer in AGW (May 5, 2008 http://www.newsweek.com/id/134313 ), because she does not bother with facts, saying “In the United States, diminishing snowpack, particularly in the Northwest, means less water is stored for the growing season.”
But the Department of Agriculture snowpack map shows strongly above average levels. ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/support/snow/snowpack_maps/columbia_river/wy2008/cusnow0804.gif
There is no point in telling her of the the PDO cool phase or the current and predicted quiet energy levels of the sun; she has made up her mind.
Re: kum dollison (13:33:46):
The $1.90 per gallon subsidy in The Economist article quoted by Gary Gulrud may have come from Kudlow, 2006:
http://www.globalsubsidies.org/IMG/pdf/biofuels_subsidies_us.pdf
Kudlow estimated all 2006 federal and state “subsidies”, both direct and indirect, at $1.44 – $1.96 for a gasoline gallon equivalent of ethanol. No doubt experts could argue endlessly over his methodology.
BTW, with oil well over $100 a barrel, does ethanol still need subsidies?
[…] “green” business, a great excuse comes along; global warming is currently being “masked ” by global cooling and global warming by CO2 will be negated by natural global cooling. […]
Yeah, Gary, Globalsubsidies.org is a Swiss-based outfit (funded by, I don’t know who) that has taken a huge interest in American ethanol. Their numbers are pretty much nonsensical (e.g. Taking the tax credit, then adding in the tariff that was passed to nullify the tax credit, adding in corn subsidies (that are no longer paid,) etc.
No, Gary, the U.S. “Corn” ethanol industry doesn’t really need the tax credit, anymore; but, the American people do. There’s no way we could get the investment to move to the next step, Cellulosic, without it. Congress lowered the Tax Credit on corn ethanol by $0.06 in the last farm bill, and will probably slowly do away with it over the next several years. And, the E85 folks need it. They are a good insurance policy in case we really are getting close to the “peak” in oil.
I find the decline of the AGW ‘myth’ the best news in years. Once and for all, Gore and his ilk will be muzzled by their own silliness of the past. They will be too embarassed to speak ever again.
As far as bio-fuels go, there is plenty of research needed before grand pronouncements are made to subsidize and fund large-scale quotas. There is emerging technologies that will make ANY organic matter into ethanol or methanol. lawn clippings or leaves in the fall could be the source of our needed fuel. No extra land or food production has to be directed to growing bio fuel.
All people need food and water… both are in current short supply. Those two things need to be protected from speculation and greed. We all think we need fuel, myself included, to live our daily lives. We do to an extent, but we must not create a situation where growing food-crops becomes less important to the need for fuel for our Hummers and wasteful travel desires.
I actually NEED a truck….. a 4X4 to boot…. but I bought a small one instead of a big one. I wanted a big one…but reality and high gas prices made to chose a better option. I think a lot of larger cars could be substituted for smaller ones. I think it needs to be optional tho.. your need for a H2 is not for me to argue, nor is your Pirus-loving, green-eating, tree-hugging self in any position to question my need for a Toyota Tacoma. If I could get by with a Yaris, I would. (I’d never own a hybrid until they find a way to make one that used less energy in its life-cycle than an H2.. regardless of the fuel being burned)
All domestic electricity should be from Nuclear, all fuel should be from north american oil… the rest of the world can fight with the arabs for what is left. Chasing bio-fuel rainbows has to wait until PRIVATE industry, free of subsidies, matures the technology to a point where it is truly viable. There are plenty of other alternate energy sources to be investigated as well. Tidal and geo-thermal seem to me to be the best options. Solar power has had decades to develop something useful but has so far fallen far short. subsidies just breed cash-cow milking. Farmers, oil companies and alternate energy developers all like to milk the tax-payer. A real engineer with a brilliant idea can research and develop his idea with pvt funding, or it can’t really be very good. A smart investor can see the promise of riches if the idea is fundamentally sound. Once Government gets involved, ‘progress’ slows to the rate of tax-payer investment. Venture capital, anyone? Better yet, figure out a way to make ‘green’ energy and kill people at the same time as a weapon…. then the Military will invest in it.( sarcasm)
honestly, bio-fuel are way too young in the development cycle to be seriously considered yet. 10 years from now.. maybe. Geo-thermal and Nuke is a mature technology and quite capable. Geo-thermal can work anywhere on earth… it just takes money to drill the hole. After that…. endless FREE energy. You can use it to make steam, and use that steam to make ice… best of both…heating or cooling. Google: Cheena hotsprings, alaska if you don’t believe me. They have a summer Ice Museum…. made from geo-thermal. They make electricity, ice and heat. pretty amazing technology. It is all made from a unit that is about the size of a walk-in cooler at a restaurant.
The Greens can harp about alternate fuels all they want… but the earth provides limitless sources of cheap clean energy.
First of all for most of my teenage years if we ate corn it was field corn, that is what we grew on the farm. It was good, it was healthy, and we froze it for later use. It is the same as today’s sweet corn except that the picking times for human consumption as fresh corn on the cob was much shorter. (only a few days) And we made the most of those few days. that was in the 50’s and 60’s. Today I usually grow sweet corn for my consumption and get 2 crops a year. The picking time for human consumption is in weeks instead of days. Also if you leave it on the stalk to dry like field corn guess what it is just like field corn unfit for consumption like field corn. Except when ground in to meal for use as corn meal.
Now your nice E20 and higher blends are very good for you rich folks (your efforts appear to force change to new technology currently unaffordable to John Q public. the E 10 that most get today in what we call high compression engines isn’t so bad but to change to the higher bio fuels at this time is not economically feasible for lots of folks.
I think that I still prefer to eat my corn rather than burn it.
Bill Derryberry
PS. Corn does make a very good whiskey if one desires.
But that U of M study isn’t about fuel economy, how can you even quote an incindental …
“a properly tuned (compressed) ICE can extract 40% of this energy potential.”
All right, I’ve been pwnd. Riotous fun, that.
Minnesota is rife with Turkey farms. A British firm is piloting a biodiesel plant using their excrement. Now that scata has promise.
Crosspatch and Robert Wood,
Concerning current melt rates in Arctic Ice:
Perhaps I could have been clearer; the rate of melting Arctic ice has been much faster in the last several days in comparison to the rate of past years. In mid-April, 2008 Arctic ice was well over 500,000 sq km above the 2007 level. Now, the 2008 is close to the 2007 level. Earlier in April, Arctic ice was approaching the 1979-2000 average; now, it the anomaly is 1,000,000 sq km below the average. I would expect skeptics to understand that references are to multi-year trends and anomalies 🙂 — not to the coming of spring, but I apologize if I was not clear.
Anthony, I know this is off topic but I know you would be interested. The recent news on Lake Baikal’s warming is being trumpeted as global warming, so I looked it up on Wikipedia and found this:
“Lake Baikal is in a rift valley created by the Baikal Rift Zone, where the crust of the earth is pulling apart… In geological terms, the rift is young and active, it widens about two centimeters per year. The fault zone is also seismically active: there are hot springs in the area and notable earthquakes every few years.”
Doesn’t this explain the warming better than the article does?
REPLY: Well the can’t seem to see the relevance of the Ross Ice Shelf sitting astride the same sort of active geologic zone either.
Solid investment hint:
Buy and store Oregon, Washington, and Idaho wines. We won’t see new wines from these states for a loooonnnngggg time, which means you could re-sell for a handsome profit later on. Buy before they begin limiting purchases.
KD & GH:
As I was saying, Ethanol returns no more energy than that required in its production.
http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/environment/will-biofuel-scam-derail-environmentalism?-200804291301/
Please do not send us on more pointless efforts to vet your silly claims to the contrary. An ideal world is not available for residence.
“In mid-April, 2008 Arctic ice was well over 500,000 sq km above the 2007 level. Now, the 2008 is close to the 2007 level. Earlier in April, Arctic ice was approaching the 1979-2000 average; now, it the anomaly is 1,000,000 sq km below the average. ”
I will not claim to be any kind of expert on this, but In March, I had 1000% more snow in my yard than I did a year ago. Now, I have the same amount of snow in my yard – zero – as I did a year ago.
Perhaps this is apples and oranges, perhaps not. It only seems logical to me that when you have a lot more of something that can melt, and then things start to melt, a lot more stuff will melt.
But I’m admittedly engaging in conjecture.
” Earlier in April, Arctic ice was approaching the 1979-2000 average; now, the anomaly is 1,000,000 sq km below the average. ”
Will someone please explain to me why we do not use the years 2001 -2007 in the average? The total period from 1979 – 2007 inclusive is 27 years. Why are they using only the first 22 years of that period for the average and not including the last 5 years? Would that drop the average down so that the anomalies in 2001- 2007 show to be lower?
Gary, you didn’t click on the “State of Minnesota” link. It’s not the same line as the Mn State link. Section 15 (you need to magnify) does give the fuel mileage results over the entire 1 year period.
No, you haven’t be “p’wned.” Here’s the EPA test that found ethanol can deliver 40% efficiency.
http://www.methanol.org/pdf/ISAF-XV-EPA.pdf
An Inquirer, Look more closely at the crysophere web-site data. It seems that the big jump in slope at the end of April is primarily an artifact. (There are many artifacts and discontinuities in the cyrosphere at Illinois data, I do not know why.) If you look at each sea, there is a wierd discontinuity towards the end of april in most of the northern hemisphere data, primarily in the Berring Sea.
I think that we have to look a little longer to see a legitimate slope trend.
I have to put my two cents into this ethanol efficiency debate.
About 30 years ago I co-owned a company called “Research Unlimited” based in Crete Illinois. Our mission statement was to investigate and capitalize on new technologies in the chemical and electronics industries. To this end we designed special purpose computers for many in the fast food industry (including Mickey D) as well in the aerospace industry (including Goodyear and others).
We also worked on developing specialty chemicals to enhance the mining of coal, increasing tool life in machining shop operations, and for increasing gasoline engine life. In the course of doing the latter, we came across a small company in New Jersey who had developed an ingredient claimed to increase gas mileage by up to 30%! After testing the product over a six month period, we bought the company’s trade secrets.
Having said all that, it’s the testing I wish to focus on.
“kum dollison” (don’t know why he can’t capitalize his name) has been alluding to tests performed by the likes of Iowa State University, Merril Lynch, University of N. Dakota, and Mn State at Mankatow as his sources for impeccable information.
To that I say nonsense!
When we first came to know of this special additive, we ran preliminary tests at Standard Oil’s research labs and had incredible results. This led us to purchase five Pontiac Grandvilles, which we stripped bare (except for the driver’s seat) and baselined for the next three months over a measured portion of I-57 in Illinois. During the baselining period and subsequent road tests with the additive in the tanks, we switched drivers between vehicles to establish each driver’s peculiarities. We even went so far as to measure wind speed and direction, humidity, and temperature during each test, as well as each driver’s biorhythm’s. The drivers did not know whether the additive was in their tank of gas or not. Otherwise, we attempted to make these tests as “blind” as possible.
After eight months of recording each vehicle’s results, we then took one of the cars to the a WELL known, EPA endorsed lab where they had so graciously agreed to run the standard EPA tests with and without the additive.
Folks, the REAL world and dynamometer testing are two entirely different animals! After questioning some of the results, one of the technicians told me privately that each test can be profoundly different from another just based on the test driver’s attitude. If a test driver runs the test as though he has an egg under his foot, he’ll accomplish completely different results than if he doesn’t… and it’s not even noticeable to the average eye. He also said he can give me any result I want (and no, he wasn’t looking for a bribe).
The bottom line is simply this: the sources cited by “kum dollison” all have a “dog in the fight” in the sense each of those States, as well as Merril Lynch, stand to profit from the ethanol debacle. Any poll or report based on information provided by those with a vested interest should be looked upon with a great deal of suspicion! Having said that, I wouldn’t give a tinkers damn for any of “kum dollison’s sources!
Jack Koenig, Editor
The Mysterious Climate Project
http://www.climateclinic.com
Tom in Florida said: “Will someone please explain to me why we do not use the years 2001 -2007 in the average?”
I suspect they use that base period because it will give them the numbers they’re looking for!
Jack Koenig, Editor
The Mysterious Climate Project
http://www.climateclinic.com
[…] wait…I thought that ocean temperatures are falling…woopsy […]
James Chamberlain,
Yes, you have a good point — because 15 days does not a trend make. Nevertheless, the April record does give credence to this alarmist story from Rutgers University:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080502/ap_on_sc/on_thin_ice
Lots’a babblin McG,
BUT, you didn’t read the links, did you?
One (the State of Minnesota Test) was a “Real World” BLIND Test with a combination of professional drivers, and State Employees. No one knew which fuel they were using. I guess the EPA Research was rigged, too.
Is that how you do Climate “Research?” Ignore all evidence; and go with your preconceived notions?
McGrats
The information that kum dollison posted is indeed correct. – much more so than your attempt to equate your experiences from 30 years ago.
I’d say it’s time for you to step away from the dark ages.
http://www.epa.gov/otaq/presentations/sae-2002-01-2743-v2.pdf
http://www.epa.gov/otaq/presentations/epa-fev-isaf-no55.pdf
“The Flex-Fuel Vehicles (FFVs) produced today, use fairly typical gasoline engines, which, because they must retain dual-fuel capability, are not able to take full advantage of the favorable combustion characteristics of alcohols.
“Engines optimized for alcohol fuel use, on the other hand, may yield efficiencies that exceed that of state-of-the-art diesel engines—or, about one third higher than that of FFV engines. In earlier engine research at EPA with neat [100%] methanol and ethanol, for example, over 40% brake thermal efficiency was achieved over a relatively broad range of loads and speeds, with peak levels reaching over 42%. Similar work has also been performed with E85, yielding up to 20% fuel economy improvement over baseline gasoline engines.”
And for some factual information on food prices:
http://agadvocate.wordpress.com/2008/04/27/the-food-vs-fuel-debate/
http://agadvocate.wordpress.com/2008/04/28/why-are-food-prices-going-up/
[…] The waters off California have been consistently colder than normal for a year with the onset of PDO negative conditions in the world’s largest ocean. Water temperatures around Florida have been normal this winter. […]
[…] evidence? Things like this and this or this or this or this or……well, you get the […]
[…] 04/29/08…….PDO flip could mean cooler times for the West Coast. link. […]
kinda funny how mother earth likes to prove man’s theories about global warming wrong… go, mother earth! :-p