NASA: PDO flip to cool phase confirmed – cooler times ahead for the West Coast?

La Nina and Pacific Decadal Oscillation Cool the Pacific

Click here to view full image (228 kb)

 “The shift in the PDO can have significant implications for global climate, affecting Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activity, droughts and flooding around the Pacific basin, the productivity of marine ecosystems, and global land temperature patterns. ” – NASA JPL

       

A cool-water anomaly known as La Niña occupied the tropical Pacific Ocean throughout 2007 and early 2008. In April 2008, scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory announced that while the La Niña was weakening, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation—a larger-scale, slower-cycling ocean pattern—had shifted to its cool phase.

This image shows the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Pacific Ocean from April 14–21, 2008. The anomaly compares the recent temperatures measured by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) on NASA’s Aqua satellite with an average of data collected by the NOAA Pathfinder satellites from 1985–1997. Places where the Pacific was cooler than normal are blue, places where temperatures were average are white, and places where the ocean was warmer than normal are red.

The cool water anomaly in the center of the image shows the lingering effect of the year-old La Niña. However, the much broader area of cooler-than-average water off the coast of North America from Alaska (top center) to the equator is a classic feature of the cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The cool waters wrap in a horseshoe shape around a core of warmer-than-average water. (In the warm phase, the pattern is reversed).

See the entire story here:

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=18012

See the PRESS RELEASE from JPL here:

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2008-066

Look out California agriculture. The wine industry, fruits and nut growers will be hit with a shorter growing season and more threats of frost, among other things.

Recently in Nevada County, much of their grape crop was wiped out. From The Union in Nevada County (h/t Russ Steele)

Nevada County’s agricultural commissioner will seek disaster relief from the state after tens of thousands of dollars worth of crops were ruined from last week’s freezing temperatures.

Orchard trees, wine grapes and pastures were hardest hit, Pylman said. The commissioner is compiling a report of damages that he will send to the state Office of Emergency Services in coming weeks.

“Growers don’t have anything to harvest. That’s a disaster in my mind,” Pylman said.

 

In Paradise, CA, Noble Orchards reports damage to their Apple crop from recent colder weather, as well as reports of issue with vineyards in the Paradise ridge area suffering from frost damage recently.

Here is a short history of PDO phase shifts:

In 1905, PDO switched to a warm phase.

In 1946, PDO switched to a cool phase.

In 1977, PDO switched to a warm phase.

California agriculture has ridden a wave of success on that PDO warm phase since 1977, experiencing unprecedented growth. Now that PDO is shifting to a cooler phase, areas that supported crops during the warm phase may no longer be able to do so.

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Francois

I like this quote:

Sea level rise and global warming due to increases in greenhouse gases can be strongly affected by large natural climate phenomenon such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. “In fact,” said Willis, “these natural climate phenomena can sometimes hide global warming caused by human activities. Or they can have the opposite effect of accentuating it.”

(Gary G) Otter

I notice they just Had to make a reference to ‘man-made’ global warming. The possibility that virtually ALL the warming is natural just doesn’t seem to make sense to them. I imagine when the Dalton Minimum kicks in full force, they’ll say it is just ‘masking man-made global warming’ then, too.

Daryl Ritchison

A PDO flip and a quiet sun, they have to mention AGW as they can sense careers ending as the world slowly cools.

SteveSadlov

New careers are in order … initially … careers dealing with millions of emaciated corpses … and eventually … the nasty jobs inherent to fighting a world war.

jeez

hmmm…this will hit the world’s food supply–hard. Combined with the genocidal juggernaut of biofuels we are headed for some serious tragedy in the coming years.
It really is looking like the moral issue of our age will be biofuels. I just don’t think there is a leader charismatic enough to tear through the levels of obfuscation caused by global warming mania to have a positive affect for at least five years–say a few hundred million dead.
There is real money at stake here, and turning this train around won’t be easy. What a surprise, it won’t be Exxon Mobile that murders, but the “alternative”, “green” fuel producers.

Craig

What will this mean for California’s illegals? Fewer crops = fewer jobs.

crosspatch

I read an article over the weekend where it noted that global warming was the direct cause of below normal temperatures. I kid you not.

Hasse@Norway

It’s funny that ocean current oscillations only can cause cooling. If it’s warming, it’s manmade CO2. -sigh!
Anyway!
Monty Pyton – Dead hypotesis (ok dead parrot) but if you change the word “parrot” with “CO2 hypotesis” it becomes really funny and up to date.

I am a dunce; can anyone explain what causes these oscillations? Is it to do with the Sun getting cooler?

Retired Engineer

1905 warm, 1946 cool, 1977 warm. Is it just me, or does that look a lot like the warm/cool patterns of the last century? Offset by a few years, perhaps. So what drives what? Of course, humans are responsible for it. Can’t sue God, or even legislate against Him.
Trust an old geezer, Jeez. When folks starve, they will blame Exxon.
Sigh.

Eric Gamberg

Hasse@Norway:
AGW’s not dead, it’s just pinnin’ for the fjords.

Alan McIntire

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation was discovered rather recently; nobody knows the cause yet
http://www.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/
– A. McIntire

kum dollison

The United States has about 1.2 Billion Acres of Arable Land. We use 246 Million of them for our 8 largest rowcrops. The Brazilian Minister of Agriculture states that they have 370 Million Acres Available for biofuel production.
We Pay farmers Not to raise crops on 34 Million Acres. We exported about 2.4 Billion Bushels (up from 2.1 in 06′) of Field Corn last year. Over 80% of of it went to feed livestock (mostly cattle.)
It’s figured that the higher cost of field corn has caused a $0.05 increase in your 18 oz box of corn flakes, and about $0.17 on that 16 oz T-Bone you had last night. Oh, and an extra $0.02 in that coca cola on your desk.
And, Gasoline is figured to be up to $0.50/gal cheaper as a result of the pressure being taken off of supply by ethanol.
Yeah, we might get lucky and survive biofuels. Survive Ignorance? I don’t know.

Walt

This PDO anomaly can imply both cooler AND wetter for So.Cal and Nevada, more so than the current 90 day forecasts for the region?

David S

From one retired engineer to another;
Your comment ;”1905 warm, 1946 cool, 1977 warm. Is it just me, or does that look a lot like the warm/cool patterns of the last century? ”
That’s pretty much what I was thinking.
I wonder why the geniuses at the IPCC never figured that out. Speaking of geniuses; the legislative savants in Washington used our tax dollars to entice farmers to produce ethanol instead of food. So now we can be hungry as well as cold.

Bob B

Anthony, great post. I hope more research $$$ are out into research of PDO cycle. I hope you back is better.

1905 – 1946 (41 years) warm
1946 – 1977 (31 years) cool
1977 – 2008 (31 years) warm
Are we sure these figures are not random?

Robert Wood

Kum Dollison:
And, Gasoline is figured to be up to $0.50/gal cheaper as a result of the pressure being taken off of supply by ethanol.
I don’t buy that statement at all. What is your source for this figuring?

evanjones

I am a dunce; can anyone explain what causes these oscillations? Is it to do with the Sun getting cooler?
I don’t think that correlates. The ocean cycles (AMO and PDO) seem to be just natural cycles. But we’ve only observed them for a couple of rounds, so there’s no being sure.
1905 warm, 1946 cool, 1977 warm. Is it just me, or does that look a lot like the warm/cool patterns of the last century? Offset by a few years, perhaps.
Like so totally. (I’ve been siding with the sea witches for quite a while.)
So what drives what?
Seems to be a bit of a spinning top. Ultimately the sun has to be a significant factor, but I don’t know how proximate those effects are.
Trust an old geezer, Jeez. When folks starve, they will blame Exxon.
Naturally. And if you point out that Big Oil profits are around 10% of investment (or less) you will get response indicating flat disbelief. (No wonder oil is a lousy investment. The government makes off with nearly all the investors’ profits.)

evanjones

So now it’s begun.
REPLY: In COSTCO today, rice sales were restricted to one bag (10lb) per customer, and only if you’d purchased the bulk bag before. They have a sign that says this, I kid you not. The price went up 3.00 last week.

Philip_B

It’s effecting the SH as well. Widespread frosts across southeast Australia in recent days and it’s only the end of April.

JP

It’s time to get out the 1920s and 1930s weather analogs -at least for now. In the 1930s, the AMO was positive, but the PDO transitioned to negative. If I am not mistaken, the transition from positive to negative PDO is longer than negative to positive. It took only one ENSO cycle in 1976 to transition from negative to positive. The transition from positive to negative PDO this time around took at least 2 years.
A positive AMO/cooling East Pacific historically translates into drought conditions for at least 1/2 of North America (parts of the Southeast into the Plains and Farwest). The Dustbowl years of the 1930s come to mind. When the AMO transitioned to negative and the PDO finished transitioning to negative, most of North America, Europe and East Asia went into a cold regime.
The fifty dollar question is solar activity. We are at the tail end of the DeVries Cycle. The Russians at the Russian Academy of Sciences have been warning about a solar minimum on the scale of the Dalton Minimum since 2005. They are predicting a decrease in general solar activity in 2012 and remaining low through most of this century. If that is the case, all bets are off.
The world will quickly forget about AGW. Instead of preparing contingencies for shorter growing seasons, drier cooler climates (at least for North America), we are chasing a fantasy called Global Warming.

You have to remember the AGW position was well set by the time the PDO, IPO, and AMO were identfied. Their roles in climate since the mid 70s have been downplayed to create a greater impact for AGW. Now that the PDO is negative, La Ninas will become more frequent, further lowering global temperature. Add to that: the AMO may have peaked two years ago, and a possible lower amplitude Solar Cycle 24.
Should be interesting.
All we need is a few explosive volcanic eruptions to throw aerosols into the stratosphere.

saaad

“and therefore never send to know for whom the bells
tolls; it tolls for thee.”…..Can you hear the bells Mssrs Gore and Hansen?
Let’s hope the media begin to sit up and take notice – if they smell AGW blood in the water perhaps even they might put two and two together!…I’m tempted to go on, “Emperor’s Clothes”, Y2k etc……but that would be a little nasty.
Perhaps now we can all put our rhetoric away and get back to scientific method.

I’m with you, Kum Dollison (16:01:59). You see the same type of idiocy in the “biofuels are evil” cant as you see in Al Gore’s “global warming is going to kill us all” scam. Both are based on ignorance of the underlying facts. But hey, if you get high on self-righteousness, don’t let lack of valid rationale stop you.

[…] NASA confirms that the Pacific Ocean has entered the negative phase of its multi-decadal oscillation. The whole NE Pacific Basin has been persistently cold for a year. At the same time, La Nina has cooled the equatorial waters. It has been obvious for many months that the anomaly pattern had stabilized in this configuration. Still, it is disquieting to get confirmation from people who are reluctant to acknowledge any climate change that fails to fit global warming theory. […]

crosspatch

Just something to keep in mind … who benefits if the US chases global warming while the climate is really cooling?

Sam

The global warm-mongers will not miss a beat and will roll with the flow to cooling by blaming humans. They will never, ever admit to having been wrong. They will still be standing, and screaming, on their soapbox long after the crowds have walked away.
And there will be no pleasure in our being able to say “I told you so.” The problems on the way will be far too serious to bask in any faint self-satisfaction.
And, unfortunately, I’m afraid I agree with Steve Sadlov that the die has already been cast, too many stupid things have already been placed into motion by government and the ecofascists, and that a dreadful world war will have to be fought due to the instability they have brought to the global energy and food markets. I sincerely pray we are both wrong, but I don’t think we are.

KuhnKat

Kum Dollison,
the only way the price of oil will go down is for GLOBAL DEMAND TO GO DOWN!!!!!
Pray tell how our ethanol is going to reduce the demand in India and China?

evanjones

My god. I just noticed. A guy from Wales got “explained to” by Evan Jones That’s just not right . . .
It’s figured that the higher cost of field corn has caused a $0.05 increase in your 18 oz box of corn flakes, and about $0.17 on that 16 oz T-Bone you had last night. Oh, and an extra $0.02 in that coca cola on your desk.
Oh, it doesn’t affect Americans much (yet) in percentage terms. That’s because nearly everything that goes into the price of bread is either labor or overhead. The wheat part hardly even shows up in the equation.
It’s the fourth-world countries that are seeing their food prices quadruple. That “dollar a day” that many of the poor of the world earn goes straight into the food itself. Where we get nudged, they get murdered. Literally.

evanjones

Can you hear the bells Mssrs Gore and Hansen?
They have, um, brass bells.
Hear the loud alarum bells – Brazen bells!
What a tale of terror, now, their turbulency tells!

SteveSadlov

The deaths have already started to increase. A year from now the use of the “f” word will be common.

Tom in Florida

kum dollison: “It’s figured that the higher cost of field corn has caused a $0.05 increase in your 18 oz box of corn flakes, and about $0.17 on that 16 oz T-Bone you had last night. Oh, and an extra $0.02 in that coca cola on your desk. And, Gasoline is figured to be up to $0.50/gal cheaper as a result of the pressure being taken off of supply by ethanol. ”
What is the real drive behind higher prices for grains and oil? Commodities investors. These are the people who buy grain and oil contracts for future delivery without ever wanting or needing that delivery. They speculate that those that need the grain and oil will find the price of the contract that the investor owns to be lower than the market place at the time the contracts mature and they, the end users, will buy up those delivery contracts at the lower price. It is all speculation fueled by our dumbass Congress and President who signed off on the latest enery bill that requires 30% renewal energy sources. It must have been like a shark feeding frenzy on the exchange floor as news of the signing of that bill was released. I just wonder how many of those future contracts legislators and their relatives had in their pocket when that bill was passed. The solution is to create an atmosphere where the investors start to get scared that they are over extended long and will then see more profit/safety in going short thus creating falling prices. If the less gutsy investors start to panic, prices should tumble rather quickly. Not being an economist, I don’t know what has to be done to create that mind set.

[…] 29, 2008 · Filed under Climate crap Thanks to Watts Up With That? for reminding me of this news item regarding the […]

Bill in Vigo

I have planted about 40% of my garden this spring. It is important because due to the drought here in N E Alabama there were no gardens and the average commercial crop was less than 30% of normal last year. I am going to plant in 3 phases so that everything doesnt come in at the same time. I have more than doubled the amount of corn I normally plant and will increase other veggies as well. We intend to can the excess above daily use. I have been listening to the “new” data and have tried to prepare for cooler winters. I have cut extra fire wood and will cut more. The price of heating fuel will vastly increase. I have been accused of being negative for nearly two years, but what I have been reading seemed to not support warming at all and the unbiased figures were showing stable to cooler temps. I believe that Steve S is correct. I also believe our monies would be much better invested in adapting to cooler times. I think that the victory gardens of the l940’s will return and that our economies will be badly damaged. There will be food wars.
There may be enough arable lands now to support food and bio-fuel but what happens when 30% or more become unsuitable for production at today’s level. Here in Alabama we can get a winter wheat crop and a soy bean or corn crop in one season but you shorten the season just a very few weeks and only one crop is possible.
I hate being pessimistic but we are looking hard times in the face IMHO.
Bill Derryberry

By definition, the PDO cannot contribute to global warming. Nor can it contribute to global cooling.

Gary Gulrud

Kum Dollison, Al Fin, and Robert Wood:
I’m with Robert on this, Ethanol is barely profitable with cheap corn and subsidies. I also find the gas price reduction absurd.
This years corn planting (already decided) is down 6% (soy and wheat up) and is late going in the ground. Harvest will be off >10%.
There is no net gain in energy burning Ethanol w/respect to that used in production.
Virgin soils are a vast store of ‘sequestered’ CO2.
Evaporating and unburnt Ethanol leads to significant aldehyde pollution.
We can go on.

GK

The AGW’ers will simply change their tune to “cimate change”, and the “crazy weather” will just be more proof to them of mankind’s evil destruction of Gaia’a climate.
I love the name the “Gore Minimum”. Very nice

evanjones

Perhaps now we can all put our rhetoric away
I don’t THINK so!
I’ve been saving up spit for over a decade just waiting for this moment.
and get back to scientific method.
Plenty of room for both. It’s a biggish world.
In fact a bit of well placed rhetoric might be just the thing to prime the pump! Just what the Doctor ordered . . .
the only way the price of oil will go down is for GLOBAL DEMAND TO GO DOWN!!!!!
Or the supply to go up. Older than the AGW panic is the running-out-of-oil panic, the latter of which will be marking its 150th birthday next year. (And equally ill informed.)
Not counting the whale-oil crisis, that is. (But that’s a different story: the War on Terror Mark I, a/k/a/ the Royal Navy’s War on Piracy.)
But yes, there is a current demand crunch. (That’s the GOOD news: The end of the worst age-old misery of China and India.) Feat not. If what happens is what we think is going to happen, they’ll dig their coal and, by God, we won’t stand in their way–for a change.
They will never, ever admit to having been wrong. They will still be standing, and screaming, on their soapbox long after the crowds have walked away.
Mmm. No, they won’t. But, as you say, there they’ll be, standing on their soap boxes. Alone. (They won’t be liking THAT, will they?)

Great group of comments folks. Confirmed much of my own thinking. Still hoping we’re wrong or at least exaggerating the effects.
Events of the past decade have the believers’ heads spinning. Another decade will put them over the edge.
My garden is in and taking off. Know how to hunt/fish/farm. The rest of y’all better learn or find friend(s) who already know how to do some of those things.
CoRev, editor
globalwarmingclearinghouse.blogspot.com

If food is going to be even more scarce, it is definitely time to fund my idea:
http://depriest-mpu.blogspot.com/2008/04/let-them-eat-coal.html
I am still looking for investors. 😉

kum dollison

Robert, there are several sources that estimate the savings in this range. Iowa State Univ. came up with this:
http://www.foodandfuelamerica.com/2008/04/new-report-shows-ethanol-saves-up-to-40.html
Merril Lynch analyst, Francisco Blanch put the savings at 15%
http://campaign-archive.com/archive.phtml?cid=SkPPB33esK
The main giveaway is the difference in the growth of refinery profit margins between Diesel (with which ethanol Can Not be blended,) and Gasoline.

crosspatch

“Oh, it doesn’t affect Americans much (yet) in percentage terms. That’s because nearly everything that goes into the price of bread is either labor or overhead. The wheat part hardly even shows up in the equation.”
Once it shows up in the cost of beer, people will take notice.

Almost all trends are a cooling one now.
Ocean,
Solar,
PDO,
AO,
Tropics,
S. Hemisphere.
The Atlantic oscillation is one that is still in a warm phase.
What other warming phase do we have?

Mike from Canmore

Atmoz:
“By definition, the PDO cannot contribute to global warming. Nor can it contribute to global cooling.” Can you explain further?
Serious question as I respect what you have to say.
Thanks in advance.

evanjones

It just struck me. The NOAA must have known this in advance. Surely this cannot come as a surprise to them. Probably knew before you visited, them, Rev?
REPLY: Maybe, but it’s irrelevant to my visit. I was there to discuss surfacestations, USHCN, CRN, and USHCN2 algorithms. SST’s and PDO was never part of the agenda. So in fairness I can’t fault anyone even if they did know.

kum dollison

Gary, this statement: “There is no net gain in energy burning Ethanol w/respect to that used in production,” just isn’t correct.
You will notice that some refineries use as little as 16,000 btus of energy to produce a gallon of ethanol. If you add in another 6,500, or so, of btus of nat gas for manufacturing the fertilizer, and 1,000 btus of diesel to grow, and harvest the corn you’re coming in at 23,500 btus of energy to produce 76,000 btus of ethanol (which in a midlevel blend in a modern engine can replace a gallon of gasoline – 116,000 btus, one for one.
http://www.ethanolrfa.org/objects/documents/1652/2007_analysis_of_the_efficiency_of_the_us_ethanol_industry.pdf
Also, THIS
http://www.rhapsodyingreen.com/rhapsody_in_green/2008/04/using-renewable.html
is happening all over the country.

Evan Jones (20:07:15) :
Older than the AGW panic is the running-out-of-oil panic, the latter of which will be marking its 150th birthday next year. (And equally ill informed.)

* “Hurry, before this wonderful product is depleted from Nature’s laboratory!”
–advertisement for “Kier’s Rock Oil,” 1855
* “. . . the United States [has] enough petroleum to keep its kerosene lamps burning for only four years . . . ”
–Pennsylvania State Geologist Wrigley, 1874
* “. . . although an estimated two-thirds of our reserve is still in the ground, . . . the peak of [U.S.] production will soon be passed–possibly within three years.”
–David White, Chief Geologist, USGS, 1919
* ” . . . it is unsafe to rest in the assurance that plenty of petroleum will be found in the future merely because it has been in the past.”
–L. Snider and B. Brooks, AAPG Bulletin, 1936

Mike Bryant

What other warming phase do we have?
Spring and Summer in northern hemisphere???

kum dollison

THIS
http://ethanolproducer.com/article.jsp?article_id=4062
is the type of place we’re going. Corn was just the necessary first step to get there.