La Nina and Pacific Decadal Oscillation Cool the Pacific
Click here to view full image (228 kb)
“The shift in the PDO can have significant implications for global climate, affecting Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activity, droughts and flooding around the Pacific basin, the productivity of marine ecosystems, and global land temperature patterns. ” – NASA JPL
A cool-water anomaly known as La Niña occupied the tropical Pacific Ocean throughout 2007 and early 2008. In April 2008, scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory announced that while the La Niña was weakening, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation—a larger-scale, slower-cycling ocean pattern—had shifted to its cool phase.
This image shows the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Pacific Ocean from April 14–21, 2008. The anomaly compares the recent temperatures measured by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) on NASA’s Aqua satellite with an average of data collected by the NOAA Pathfinder satellites from 1985–1997. Places where the Pacific was cooler than normal are blue, places where temperatures were average are white, and places where the ocean was warmer than normal are red.
The cool water anomaly in the center of the image shows the lingering effect of the year-old La Niña. However, the much broader area of cooler-than-average water off the coast of North America from Alaska (top center) to the equator is a classic feature of the cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The cool waters wrap in a horseshoe shape around a core of warmer-than-average water. (In the warm phase, the pattern is reversed).
See the entire story here:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=18012
See the PRESS RELEASE from JPL here:
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2008-066
Look out California agriculture. The wine industry, fruits and nut growers will be hit with a shorter growing season and more threats of frost, among other things.
Recently in Nevada County, much of their grape crop was wiped out. From The Union in Nevada County (h/t Russ Steele)
Nevada County’s agricultural commissioner will seek disaster relief from the state after tens of thousands of dollars worth of crops were ruined from last week’s freezing temperatures.
Orchard trees, wine grapes and pastures were hardest hit, Pylman said. The commissioner is compiling a report of damages that he will send to the state Office of Emergency Services in coming weeks.
“Growers don’t have anything to harvest. That’s a disaster in my mind,” Pylman said.
In Paradise, CA, Noble Orchards reports damage to their Apple crop from recent colder weather, as well as reports of issue with vineyards in the Paradise ridge area suffering from frost damage recently.
Here is a short history of PDO phase shifts:
In 1905, PDO switched to a warm phase.
In 1946, PDO switched to a cool phase.
In 1977, PDO switched to a warm phase.
California agriculture has ridden a wave of success on that PDO warm phase since 1977, experiencing unprecedented growth. Now that PDO is shifting to a cooler phase, areas that supported crops during the warm phase may no longer be able to do so.
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[…] NASA confirms that the Pacific Ocean has entered the negative phase of its multi-decadal oscillation. The whole NE Pacific Basin has been persistently cold for a year. At the same time, La Nina has cooled the equatorial waters. It has been obvious for many months that the anomaly pattern had stabilized in this configuration. Still, it is disquieting to get confirmation from people who are reluctant to acknowledge any climate change that fails to fit global warming theory. […]
Just something to keep in mind … who benefits if the US chases global warming while the climate is really cooling?
The global warm-mongers will not miss a beat and will roll with the flow to cooling by blaming humans. They will never, ever admit to having been wrong. They will still be standing, and screaming, on their soapbox long after the crowds have walked away.
And there will be no pleasure in our being able to say “I told you so.” The problems on the way will be far too serious to bask in any faint self-satisfaction.
And, unfortunately, I’m afraid I agree with Steve Sadlov that the die has already been cast, too many stupid things have already been placed into motion by government and the ecofascists, and that a dreadful world war will have to be fought due to the instability they have brought to the global energy and food markets. I sincerely pray we are both wrong, but I don’t think we are.
Kum Dollison,
the only way the price of oil will go down is for GLOBAL DEMAND TO GO DOWN!!!!!
Pray tell how our ethanol is going to reduce the demand in India and China?
My god. I just noticed. A guy from Wales got “explained to” by Evan Jones That’s just not right . . .
It’s figured that the higher cost of field corn has caused a $0.05 increase in your 18 oz box of corn flakes, and about $0.17 on that 16 oz T-Bone you had last night. Oh, and an extra $0.02 in that coca cola on your desk.
Oh, it doesn’t affect Americans much (yet) in percentage terms. That’s because nearly everything that goes into the price of bread is either labor or overhead. The wheat part hardly even shows up in the equation.
It’s the fourth-world countries that are seeing their food prices quadruple. That “dollar a day” that many of the poor of the world earn goes straight into the food itself. Where we get nudged, they get murdered. Literally.
Can you hear the bells Mssrs Gore and Hansen?
They have, um, brass bells.
Hear the loud alarum bells – Brazen bells!
What a tale of terror, now, their turbulency tells!
The deaths have already started to increase. A year from now the use of the “f” word will be common.
kum dollison: “It’s figured that the higher cost of field corn has caused a $0.05 increase in your 18 oz box of corn flakes, and about $0.17 on that 16 oz T-Bone you had last night. Oh, and an extra $0.02 in that coca cola on your desk. And, Gasoline is figured to be up to $0.50/gal cheaper as a result of the pressure being taken off of supply by ethanol. ”
What is the real drive behind higher prices for grains and oil? Commodities investors. These are the people who buy grain and oil contracts for future delivery without ever wanting or needing that delivery. They speculate that those that need the grain and oil will find the price of the contract that the investor owns to be lower than the market place at the time the contracts mature and they, the end users, will buy up those delivery contracts at the lower price. It is all speculation fueled by our dumbass Congress and President who signed off on the latest enery bill that requires 30% renewal energy sources. It must have been like a shark feeding frenzy on the exchange floor as news of the signing of that bill was released. I just wonder how many of those future contracts legislators and their relatives had in their pocket when that bill was passed. The solution is to create an atmosphere where the investors start to get scared that they are over extended long and will then see more profit/safety in going short thus creating falling prices. If the less gutsy investors start to panic, prices should tumble rather quickly. Not being an economist, I don’t know what has to be done to create that mind set.
[…] 29, 2008 · Filed under Climate crap Thanks to Watts Up With That? for reminding me of this news item regarding the […]
I have planted about 40% of my garden this spring. It is important because due to the drought here in N E Alabama there were no gardens and the average commercial crop was less than 30% of normal last year. I am going to plant in 3 phases so that everything doesnt come in at the same time. I have more than doubled the amount of corn I normally plant and will increase other veggies as well. We intend to can the excess above daily use. I have been listening to the “new” data and have tried to prepare for cooler winters. I have cut extra fire wood and will cut more. The price of heating fuel will vastly increase. I have been accused of being negative for nearly two years, but what I have been reading seemed to not support warming at all and the unbiased figures were showing stable to cooler temps. I believe that Steve S is correct. I also believe our monies would be much better invested in adapting to cooler times. I think that the victory gardens of the l940’s will return and that our economies will be badly damaged. There will be food wars.
There may be enough arable lands now to support food and bio-fuel but what happens when 30% or more become unsuitable for production at today’s level. Here in Alabama we can get a winter wheat crop and a soy bean or corn crop in one season but you shorten the season just a very few weeks and only one crop is possible.
I hate being pessimistic but we are looking hard times in the face IMHO.
Bill Derryberry
By definition, the PDO cannot contribute to global warming. Nor can it contribute to global cooling.
Kum Dollison, Al Fin, and Robert Wood:
I’m with Robert on this, Ethanol is barely profitable with cheap corn and subsidies. I also find the gas price reduction absurd.
This years corn planting (already decided) is down 6% (soy and wheat up) and is late going in the ground. Harvest will be off >10%.
There is no net gain in energy burning Ethanol w/respect to that used in production.
Virgin soils are a vast store of ‘sequestered’ CO2.
Evaporating and unburnt Ethanol leads to significant aldehyde pollution.
We can go on.
The AGW’ers will simply change their tune to “cimate change”, and the “crazy weather” will just be more proof to them of mankind’s evil destruction of Gaia’a climate.
I love the name the “Gore Minimum”. Very nice
Perhaps now we can all put our rhetoric away
I don’t THINK so!
I’ve been saving up spit for over a decade just waiting for this moment.
and get back to scientific method.
Plenty of room for both. It’s a biggish world.
In fact a bit of well placed rhetoric might be just the thing to prime the pump! Just what the Doctor ordered . . .
the only way the price of oil will go down is for GLOBAL DEMAND TO GO DOWN!!!!!
Or the supply to go up. Older than the AGW panic is the running-out-of-oil panic, the latter of which will be marking its 150th birthday next year. (And equally ill informed.)
Not counting the whale-oil crisis, that is. (But that’s a different story: the War on Terror Mark I, a/k/a/ the Royal Navy’s War on Piracy.)
But yes, there is a current demand crunch. (That’s the GOOD news: The end of the worst age-old misery of China and India.) Feat not. If what happens is what we think is going to happen, they’ll dig their coal and, by God, we won’t stand in their way–for a change.
They will never, ever admit to having been wrong. They will still be standing, and screaming, on their soapbox long after the crowds have walked away.
Mmm. No, they won’t. But, as you say, there they’ll be, standing on their soap boxes. Alone. (They won’t be liking THAT, will they?)
Great group of comments folks. Confirmed much of my own thinking. Still hoping we’re wrong or at least exaggerating the effects.
Events of the past decade have the believers’ heads spinning. Another decade will put them over the edge.
My garden is in and taking off. Know how to hunt/fish/farm. The rest of y’all better learn or find friend(s) who already know how to do some of those things.
CoRev, editor
globalwarmingclearinghouse.blogspot.com
If food is going to be even more scarce, it is definitely time to fund my idea:
http://depriest-mpu.blogspot.com/2008/04/let-them-eat-coal.html
I am still looking for investors. 😉
Robert, there are several sources that estimate the savings in this range. Iowa State Univ. came up with this:
http://www.foodandfuelamerica.com/2008/04/new-report-shows-ethanol-saves-up-to-40.html
Merril Lynch analyst, Francisco Blanch put the savings at 15%
http://campaign-archive.com/archive.phtml?cid=SkPPB33esK
The main giveaway is the difference in the growth of refinery profit margins between Diesel (with which ethanol Can Not be blended,) and Gasoline.
“Oh, it doesn’t affect Americans much (yet) in percentage terms. That’s because nearly everything that goes into the price of bread is either labor or overhead. The wheat part hardly even shows up in the equation.”
Once it shows up in the cost of beer, people will take notice.
Almost all trends are a cooling one now.
Ocean,
Solar,
PDO,
AO,
Tropics,
S. Hemisphere.
The Atlantic oscillation is one that is still in a warm phase.
What other warming phase do we have?
Atmoz:
“By definition, the PDO cannot contribute to global warming. Nor can it contribute to global cooling.” Can you explain further?
Serious question as I respect what you have to say.
Thanks in advance.
It just struck me. The NOAA must have known this in advance. Surely this cannot come as a surprise to them. Probably knew before you visited, them, Rev?
REPLY: Maybe, but it’s irrelevant to my visit. I was there to discuss surfacestations, USHCN, CRN, and USHCN2 algorithms. SST’s and PDO was never part of the agenda. So in fairness I can’t fault anyone even if they did know.
Gary, this statement: “There is no net gain in energy burning Ethanol w/respect to that used in production,” just isn’t correct.
You will notice that some refineries use as little as 16,000 btus of energy to produce a gallon of ethanol. If you add in another 6,500, or so, of btus of nat gas for manufacturing the fertilizer, and 1,000 btus of diesel to grow, and harvest the corn you’re coming in at 23,500 btus of energy to produce 76,000 btus of ethanol (which in a midlevel blend in a modern engine can replace a gallon of gasoline – 116,000 btus, one for one.
http://www.ethanolrfa.org/objects/documents/1652/2007_analysis_of_the_efficiency_of_the_us_ethanol_industry.pdf
Also, THIS
http://www.rhapsodyingreen.com/rhapsody_in_green/2008/04/using-renewable.html
is happening all over the country.
Evan Jones (20:07:15) :
Older than the AGW panic is the running-out-of-oil panic, the latter of which will be marking its 150th birthday next year. (And equally ill informed.)
* “Hurry, before this wonderful product is depleted from Nature’s laboratory!”
–advertisement for “Kier’s Rock Oil,” 1855
* “. . . the United States [has] enough petroleum to keep its kerosene lamps burning for only four years . . . ”
–Pennsylvania State Geologist Wrigley, 1874
* “. . . although an estimated two-thirds of our reserve is still in the ground, . . . the peak of [U.S.] production will soon be passed–possibly within three years.”
–David White, Chief Geologist, USGS, 1919
* ” . . . it is unsafe to rest in the assurance that plenty of petroleum will be found in the future merely because it has been in the past.”
–L. Snider and B. Brooks, AAPG Bulletin, 1936
What other warming phase do we have?
Spring and Summer in northern hemisphere???
THIS
http://ethanolproducer.com/article.jsp?article_id=4062
is the type of place we’re going. Corn was just the necessary first step to get there.