La Nina and Pacific Decadal Oscillation Cool the Pacific
Click here to view full image (228 kb)
“The shift in the PDO can have significant implications for global climate, affecting Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activity, droughts and flooding around the Pacific basin, the productivity of marine ecosystems, and global land temperature patterns. ” – NASA JPL
A cool-water anomaly known as La Niña occupied the tropical Pacific Ocean throughout 2007 and early 2008. In April 2008, scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory announced that while the La Niña was weakening, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation—a larger-scale, slower-cycling ocean pattern—had shifted to its cool phase.
This image shows the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Pacific Ocean from April 14–21, 2008. The anomaly compares the recent temperatures measured by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) on NASA’s Aqua satellite with an average of data collected by the NOAA Pathfinder satellites from 1985–1997. Places where the Pacific was cooler than normal are blue, places where temperatures were average are white, and places where the ocean was warmer than normal are red.
The cool water anomaly in the center of the image shows the lingering effect of the year-old La Niña. However, the much broader area of cooler-than-average water off the coast of North America from Alaska (top center) to the equator is a classic feature of the cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The cool waters wrap in a horseshoe shape around a core of warmer-than-average water. (In the warm phase, the pattern is reversed).
See the entire story here:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=18012
See the PRESS RELEASE from JPL here:
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2008-066
Look out California agriculture. The wine industry, fruits and nut growers will be hit with a shorter growing season and more threats of frost, among other things.
Recently in Nevada County, much of their grape crop was wiped out. From The Union in Nevada County (h/t Russ Steele)
Nevada County’s agricultural commissioner will seek disaster relief from the state after tens of thousands of dollars worth of crops were ruined from last week’s freezing temperatures.
Orchard trees, wine grapes and pastures were hardest hit, Pylman said. The commissioner is compiling a report of damages that he will send to the state Office of Emergency Services in coming weeks.
“Growers don’t have anything to harvest. That’s a disaster in my mind,” Pylman said.
In Paradise, CA, Noble Orchards reports damage to their Apple crop from recent colder weather, as well as reports of issue with vineyards in the Paradise ridge area suffering from frost damage recently.
Here is a short history of PDO phase shifts:
In 1905, PDO switched to a warm phase.
In 1946, PDO switched to a cool phase.
In 1977, PDO switched to a warm phase.
California agriculture has ridden a wave of success on that PDO warm phase since 1977, experiencing unprecedented growth. Now that PDO is shifting to a cooler phase, areas that supported crops during the warm phase may no longer be able to do so.
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I like this quote:
I notice they just Had to make a reference to ‘man-made’ global warming. The possibility that virtually ALL the warming is natural just doesn’t seem to make sense to them. I imagine when the Dalton Minimum kicks in full force, they’ll say it is just ‘masking man-made global warming’ then, too.
A PDO flip and a quiet sun, they have to mention AGW as they can sense careers ending as the world slowly cools.
New careers are in order … initially … careers dealing with millions of emaciated corpses … and eventually … the nasty jobs inherent to fighting a world war.
hmmm…this will hit the world’s food supply–hard. Combined with the genocidal juggernaut of biofuels we are headed for some serious tragedy in the coming years.
It really is looking like the moral issue of our age will be biofuels. I just don’t think there is a leader charismatic enough to tear through the levels of obfuscation caused by global warming mania to have a positive affect for at least five years–say a few hundred million dead.
There is real money at stake here, and turning this train around won’t be easy. What a surprise, it won’t be Exxon Mobile that murders, but the “alternative”, “green” fuel producers.
What will this mean for California’s illegals? Fewer crops = fewer jobs.
I read an article over the weekend where it noted that global warming was the direct cause of below normal temperatures. I kid you not.
It’s funny that ocean current oscillations only can cause cooling. If it’s warming, it’s manmade CO2. -sigh!
Anyway!
Monty Pyton – Dead hypotesis (ok dead parrot) but if you change the word “parrot” with “CO2 hypotesis” it becomes really funny and up to date.
I am a dunce; can anyone explain what causes these oscillations? Is it to do with the Sun getting cooler?
1905 warm, 1946 cool, 1977 warm. Is it just me, or does that look a lot like the warm/cool patterns of the last century? Offset by a few years, perhaps. So what drives what? Of course, humans are responsible for it. Can’t sue God, or even legislate against Him.
Trust an old geezer, Jeez. When folks starve, they will blame Exxon.
Sigh.
Hasse@Norway:
AGW’s not dead, it’s just pinnin’ for the fjords.
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation was discovered rather recently; nobody knows the cause yet
http://www.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/
– A. McIntire
The United States has about 1.2 Billion Acres of Arable Land. We use 246 Million of them for our 8 largest rowcrops. The Brazilian Minister of Agriculture states that they have 370 Million Acres Available for biofuel production.
We Pay farmers Not to raise crops on 34 Million Acres. We exported about 2.4 Billion Bushels (up from 2.1 in 06′) of Field Corn last year. Over 80% of of it went to feed livestock (mostly cattle.)
It’s figured that the higher cost of field corn has caused a $0.05 increase in your 18 oz box of corn flakes, and about $0.17 on that 16 oz T-Bone you had last night. Oh, and an extra $0.02 in that coca cola on your desk.
And, Gasoline is figured to be up to $0.50/gal cheaper as a result of the pressure being taken off of supply by ethanol.
Yeah, we might get lucky and survive biofuels. Survive Ignorance? I don’t know.
This PDO anomaly can imply both cooler AND wetter for So.Cal and Nevada, more so than the current 90 day forecasts for the region?
From one retired engineer to another;
Your comment ;”1905 warm, 1946 cool, 1977 warm. Is it just me, or does that look a lot like the warm/cool patterns of the last century? ”
That’s pretty much what I was thinking.
I wonder why the geniuses at the IPCC never figured that out. Speaking of geniuses; the legislative savants in Washington used our tax dollars to entice farmers to produce ethanol instead of food. So now we can be hungry as well as cold.
Anthony, great post. I hope more research $$$ are out into research of PDO cycle. I hope you back is better.
1905 – 1946 (41 years) warm
1946 – 1977 (31 years) cool
1977 – 2008 (31 years) warm
Are we sure these figures are not random?
Kum Dollison:
And, Gasoline is figured to be up to $0.50/gal cheaper as a result of the pressure being taken off of supply by ethanol.
I don’t buy that statement at all. What is your source for this figuring?
I am a dunce; can anyone explain what causes these oscillations? Is it to do with the Sun getting cooler?
I don’t think that correlates. The ocean cycles (AMO and PDO) seem to be just natural cycles. But we’ve only observed them for a couple of rounds, so there’s no being sure.
1905 warm, 1946 cool, 1977 warm. Is it just me, or does that look a lot like the warm/cool patterns of the last century? Offset by a few years, perhaps.
Like so totally. (I’ve been siding with the sea witches for quite a while.)
So what drives what?
Seems to be a bit of a spinning top. Ultimately the sun has to be a significant factor, but I don’t know how proximate those effects are.
Trust an old geezer, Jeez. When folks starve, they will blame Exxon.
Naturally. And if you point out that Big Oil profits are around 10% of investment (or less) you will get response indicating flat disbelief. (No wonder oil is a lousy investment. The government makes off with nearly all the investors’ profits.)
So now it’s begun.
REPLY: In COSTCO today, rice sales were restricted to one bag (10lb) per customer, and only if you’d purchased the bulk bag before. They have a sign that says this, I kid you not. The price went up 3.00 last week.
It’s effecting the SH as well. Widespread frosts across southeast Australia in recent days and it’s only the end of April.
It’s time to get out the 1920s and 1930s weather analogs -at least for now. In the 1930s, the AMO was positive, but the PDO transitioned to negative. If I am not mistaken, the transition from positive to negative PDO is longer than negative to positive. It took only one ENSO cycle in 1976 to transition from negative to positive. The transition from positive to negative PDO this time around took at least 2 years.
A positive AMO/cooling East Pacific historically translates into drought conditions for at least 1/2 of North America (parts of the Southeast into the Plains and Farwest). The Dustbowl years of the 1930s come to mind. When the AMO transitioned to negative and the PDO finished transitioning to negative, most of North America, Europe and East Asia went into a cold regime.
The fifty dollar question is solar activity. We are at the tail end of the DeVries Cycle. The Russians at the Russian Academy of Sciences have been warning about a solar minimum on the scale of the Dalton Minimum since 2005. They are predicting a decrease in general solar activity in 2012 and remaining low through most of this century. If that is the case, all bets are off.
The world will quickly forget about AGW. Instead of preparing contingencies for shorter growing seasons, drier cooler climates (at least for North America), we are chasing a fantasy called Global Warming.
You have to remember the AGW position was well set by the time the PDO, IPO, and AMO were identfied. Their roles in climate since the mid 70s have been downplayed to create a greater impact for AGW. Now that the PDO is negative, La Ninas will become more frequent, further lowering global temperature. Add to that: the AMO may have peaked two years ago, and a possible lower amplitude Solar Cycle 24.
Should be interesting.
All we need is a few explosive volcanic eruptions to throw aerosols into the stratosphere.
“and therefore never send to know for whom the bells
tolls; it tolls for thee.”…..Can you hear the bells Mssrs Gore and Hansen?
Let’s hope the media begin to sit up and take notice – if they smell AGW blood in the water perhaps even they might put two and two together!…I’m tempted to go on, “Emperor’s Clothes”, Y2k etc……but that would be a little nasty.
Perhaps now we can all put our rhetoric away and get back to scientific method.
I’m with you, Kum Dollison (16:01:59). You see the same type of idiocy in the “biofuels are evil” cant as you see in Al Gore’s “global warming is going to kill us all” scam. Both are based on ignorance of the underlying facts. But hey, if you get high on self-righteousness, don’t let lack of valid rationale stop you.