January 2008 was an exceptional month for our planet, with a significant cooling, especially since January 2007 started out well above normal.
January 2008 capped a 12 month period of global temperature drops on all of the major well respected indicators. I have reported in the past two weeks that HadCRUT, RSS, UAH, and GISS global temperature sets all show sharp drops in the last year.
Also see the recent post on what the last 10 years looks like with the same four metrics – 3 of four show a flat trendline.
Here are the 4 major temperature metrics compared top to bottom, with the most recently released at the top:
UK’s Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature anomaly (HadCRUT) Dr. Phil Jones:
Reference: above data is HadCRUT3 column 2 which can be found here
description of the HadCRUT3 data file columns is here
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Dr. James Hansen:
Reference: GISS dataset temperature index data
University of Alabama, Huntsville (UAH) Dr. John Christy:
Reference: UAH lower troposphere data
Remote Sensing Systems of Santa Rosa, CA (RSS):
Reference: RSS data here (RSS Data Version 3.1)
The purpose of this summary is to make it easy for everyone to compare the last 4 postings I’ve made on this subject.
I realize that not all the graphs are of the same scale, so my next task will be to run a combined graphic of all the data-sets on identical amplitude and time scales to show the agreements or differences such a graph would illustrate.
UPDATE: that comparison has been done here
Here is a quick comparison and average of ∆T for all metrics shown above:
| Source: | Global ∆T °C |
| HadCRUT |
– 0.595 |
| GISS | – 0.750 |
| UAH | – 0.588 |
| RSS | – 0.629 |
| Average: | – 0.6405°C |
For all four metrics the global average ∆T for January 2007 to January 2008 is: – 0.6405°C
This represents an average between the two lower troposphere satellite metrics (RSS and UAH) and the two land-ocean metrics (GISS and HadCRUT). While some may argue that they are not compatible data-sets, since they are derived by different methods (Satellite -Microwave Sounder Unit and direct surface temperature measurements) I would argue that the average of these four metrics is a measure of temperature, nearest where we live, the surface and near surface atmosphere.
UPDATE AND CAVEAT:
The website DailyTech has an article citing this blog entry as a reference, and their story got picked up by the Drudge report, resulting in a wide distribution. In the DailyTech article there is a paragraph:
“Anthony Watts compiled the results of all the sources. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C — a value large enough to erase nearly all the global warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year time. For all sources, it’s the single fastest temperature change ever recorded, either up or down.”
I wish to state for the record, that this statement is not mine: “–a value large enough to erase nearly all the global warming recorded over the past 100 years”
There has been no “erasure”. This is an anomaly with a large magnitude, and it coincides with other anecdotal weather evidence. It is curious, it is unusual, it is large, it is unexpected, but it does not “erase” anything. I suggested a correction to DailyTech and they have graciously complied.
UPDATE #2 see this post from Dr. John R. Christy on the issue.
UPDATE #3 see the post on what the last 10 years looks like with the same four metrics – 3 of four show a flat trendline.
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Re:
“You can actually follow daily temp UAH here
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/
by clicking on the graphs you could roughly calculate the temps for feb up to current but as Anthony says it wont be relaible as it’s going up and down ect but its still below (that’s the lower troposphere data)”
As Anthony mentioned the page is quirky and doesn’t seem to plot properly. However, you can select show data as text and get a nice data dump for the past 10 years and then play with it in Excel. I selected 3300 ft. altitude (lower toposphere) and performed a few quick calculations.
Dec 2007 average = 270.209 Kelvin
Jan 2008 average = 269.950 deg Kelvin
Feb 2008 average (through 2/18) = 270.007 Kelvin
February to date is roughly a 0.06 deg C increase from January. However, take it with a grain of salt and please check it out yourself as this was real quick and dirty calculation.
Take a look at NOAA’s breakdown of global temps. NH land is showing a negative anomaly and is a huge 2.4C cooler than last January (no mistake in that number).
Interestingly, Jan 2008 was the warmest Jan on record in Australia. February 2008 looks like being substantially cooler. So Feb 2008 will probably see the SH ‘catching up’ with the NH.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/jan/global.html#temp
Thanks for the average. Now somebody with time on their hands should average out the four time series over the whole satellite era.
Maybe there could be a consensus that, everybody should use this average of averages as a common reference base when talking about recent global temperature changes. Without an aggregate, the debate always becomes pointless as parties get to pick their favorite temperature series.
While differing baselines could displace one graph from another linearly it seems that three graphs are congruent, the other not.
I would say as a result that the work done on the fourth is not confirmed, and barring justification of the kind Raven and Steven M. are sorting out I might even call it invalid. Perhaps I’m anal, though.
Gary.
I Am toying with a statistical test.
Giss say that they know the global temp per year within +-.05C
Hadcru say the same. how close should they be? how far apart
I’ve started “Rurudyne’s Daily Global Cooling Watch” and would like any feedback or suggestion on the article I’ve assembled. The following link is to a nice, safe, non-political forum … yes, it’s a Transformers Fan Forum. –.^
http://tfarchive.com/community/showthread.php?t=43032
[…] online sources (e.g. Watts Up With That) point to other sources providing similar messages, including that the year-to-year change in […]
“February to date is roughly a 0.06 deg C increase from January. ”
But that’s an increase over Jan.’s temperature, not Feb.’s zero-anomaly, right?
REPLY: lets not speculate on future datasets please. Let them be released first then we can all squabble over the numbers. Don’t rush Science.
#Re Jeff C: February to date is roughly a 0.06 deg C increase from January. However, take it with a grain of salt and please check it out yourself as this was real quick and dirty calculation.
Thanks for that! great calculation…A re-check at the end of month should confirm whether we can use this for approximations at least.
The whole idea of man made global warming is so ridiculous. Will the liberal establsihment of pop-culture ideas admit their fault? That will be interesting to see! I think it will take some time. Whichever way earth’s current climate trend goes, there is little or nothing we can do about it. We can NOT PANIC and adapt as needed.
(Sigh)
A.) Okay, okay, I’ll send back my cattle prod.
B.) The IPCC followed me home. Can’t I keep it, huh?
C.) But Unca’ Rev, all the OTHER kids get to rush the science! THE’VE already GOT a hunderd years! I don’t get to have ANY fun!
[…] In fact, Watts Up has four such charts. […]
Let them be released first then we can all squabble over the numbers. Don’t rush Science.
But, but, but, Algore said we only have 10 years left, and that was nearly 2 years ago. Geez, if we can’t rush the science, we’re DOOMED!! Floods, earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes, forest fires, droughts, rising sea level, oh the horror of it.
Sorry, Anthony, that just seemed to fit this thread.
Sam Said: (20:34:11) :
“Why in the world should 2000 be used. we’re already almost a decade past that and inconveniently, showing, a dramatic decline in temps. This past 7 years has already given back all of the gain of the past 150 years. Shows how vulnerable the purported changes are to real results.”
And that’s the point. Why does GISS continue to use 51-80 for their reference period, almost 40 years in the past (and in a cooler period, before the “modern global warming” period.)
If you compare surface temps to a walk-in freezer, you WOULD get higher anomalies.
“Will the liberal establsihment of pop-culture ideas admit their fault?”
The jury is still out. (Consensus OFF. Debate ON.)
It seems probable to me that man has had some measurable effect on the temperature. However, there is preliminary evidence that temperature has been poorly measured and very badly adjusted by those responsible. Data is in the process of being gathered regarding this. Results still pending.
There is also evidence of stronger correlations to factors other than Greenhouse gasses, particularly the PDO/AMO cycle, which may well account for warming of the the 19-teens-’30s, cooling from the ’40s-70s, and warming since 1980. (The degree of warming since 1980 being particularly called into serious question). The temperature trend of the next five years may well provide (most of) the answer.
Mere correlation is not proof. It is a mere starting point for further empirical observation. Lack of correlation, however, may be considered likely to be disproof.
I think that puts it pretty fairly.
And what if those of the pop-culture establishment (which I do not consider to be “liberal” in any real sense of the definition) do, in the end, turn out to be wrong or mostly wrong, then will they admit their error?
As a liberal apostate (and continuing bleeding-heart liberal), I think I can answer that question by consultatiion of the the historical record:
Every bit as much as they admitted error on demographics.
Every bit as much as they admitted error on resource depletion.
Every bit as much as they admitted the “surge” was a success.
Every bit as much as they admitted that poverty has been reduced.
Every bit as much as they admitted that the W.H.O. is right about DDT.
Every bit as much as they have admitted Paul Ehrlich was wrong.
Every bit as much as they have admitted Dennis Meadows was wrong.
Every bit as much as they have admitted Herman Kahn was right.
Every bit as much as they have admitted tax cuts result in greater revenues.
Every bit as much as they have admitted that putting bad guys in jail reduces the crime rate.
Every bit as much as they have admitted that Reagan caused the fall of the Soviet Union.
I find your lack of faith disturbing.
Apology accepted. (*insert appropriate ghastly sound effects*)
“Will the liberal establishment of pop-culture ideas admit their fault?”
Evan … At the risk of citing a ‘liberal’ I must wonder at the notion that the luminaries of pop-culture have any ideas at all…. Well, good ideas.
Since the 1970s we have so many things in our popular culture that they just couldn’t have imagined and didn’t imagine. In their most cynical moment of mad brilliance all they could come up with, all they could place on the stage with Howard Beale ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NfGdbFh6cSI ), can’t hold a candle to the sheer mendacity and creative incompetence which these luminaries themselves have actually foisted on this nation.
They had Beale mourn the unreality of TV and yet their peers now give us “Reality TV.” Beale said “Go to God! Go to your gurus. … Go to yourselves!” but now they invite us to come to Oprah or any of the countless “People’s Court” clones.
It’s amazing to realize how unimaginative they were about themselves and their peers, what THEY were capably incapable of.
Could they make Network today? What would they say to us today? Not “Turn off your TVs!” because how would that play with the people paying for product placement ads in the movie? Maybe a Howard Beale in 2008 would be watered down to talk about the evils of … um … well …hmmmmmm?
Maybe I just lack the imagination to think of anything they might do that they haven’t already done. Go figure?
Wasn’t ’98 “the hotest year on record” due to a super El Nino? How come GISS missed it ?
The 30 day temp anomaly from the NCDC (Jan 20 to Feb 18) is here.
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/rnl/sfctmpmer_30a.rnl.html
The map shows the extreme cold conditions in southern Asia, north-west North America, parts of Arctic and Antarctica over the past 30 days. Europe and Russia are above average.
The 7 day anomaly shows there has been some moderation in all the anomalies.
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/rnl/sfctmpmer_07a.rnl.html
So, February to date might be showing some moderation in temps from January.
And thanks Anthony for a great report and great website (people should print this out and show it to their global warming friends).
But the biggest cause of the temperature decline this year is La Nina. The latest sea surface temperature map shows La Nina is still going strong but ther may be some weakening. Historically, global temperature lag the La Ninas / El Ninos by 3 to 6 months so there should not be any significant increase in temps for at least 6 months.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.2.18.2008.gif
I hate to say it but, any drop in temperature if and when recognized will be attributed to AGCC. C02 will still be the villain. It’s the whole “tipping point” thing, and because we’ve upset nature’s “delicate balance”. Global Warming is so Yesterday.
Just to make sure I understand this, you are comparing January 2007 with January 2008, and drawing your conclusions from those numbers alone?
REPLY: No, but you seem to be. This is a very large anomaly, largest seen in years, coming on the heels of predictions of increasing temperaturs, so worth pointing out. Besides the fact that 4 metrocs are in agreement, what is also worth noting is that this large anomaly coincides with a large La Nina, a PDO shift, and a deep solar minimum. See previous posts on the subject.
Roger: They’ve moved on to bigger and better things, no dwelling on their legacy of achievement–commendable in a way.
henry and others, changing the anomaly peroid just sifts the line vertically, it doesnt change the trend and the trend is the issue
Roger, technically 1934 was the hottest year on record.
It is impossible to tell which periods were warm relative to others by looking at the GISS chart of anomalies. For that, you need to look at a chart of the actual temperatures (preferably unadjusted). Frankly, I don’t have a clue what the GISS chart represents. There is no sign of cooling from the 1940’s to the 1970’s, and there are no significant anomalies during the 1930’s.
I don’t really have any opinion about global warming, but I do have a strong opinion about how the data is being collected and how it is being “adjusted.”
PS. If you want to read a defense of Hansen, check out Mark Bowen’s Censoring Science, which was published in December. There isn’t a single mention of any of Hansen’s critics, their reverse engineering of his mistakes or Hansen’s stonewalling of requests for information. When critics are mentioned, they are labeled “deniers.”
Question:
Does anyone have a handy link to one (or more) of the Big Four monthly anomalies? (I.e., the “average” for each month from 1979-1998 (or whatever time period .)
“and yet their peers now give us “Reality TV.” ”
Actually, I think FOX started that.
“Could they make Network today?”
Maybe as a South Park episode.
Never Mind!
For purposes of comparison, here are the NOAA global anomolies 1900-2000
(Celsius)
LAND
J: 2.8
F: 3.2
M: 5.0
A: 8.1
M: 11.1
J: 13.3
J: 14.3
A: 13.8
S: 12.0
O: 9.3
N: 5.9
D: 3.7
Mean: 8.5
LAND/SEA
J: 12.0
F: 12.1
M: 12.7
A: 13.7
M: 14.8
J: 15.5
J: 15.8
A: 15.6
S: 15.0
O: 14.0
N: 12.9
D: 12.2
Mean: 13.9
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/anomalies/anomalies.html
For those jumping the gun, note that Feb. is normally a warmer month that Jan.