January 2008 was an exceptional month for our planet, with a significant cooling, especially since January 2007 started out well above normal.
January 2008 capped a 12 month period of global temperature drops on all of the major well respected indicators. I have reported in the past two weeks that HadCRUT, RSS, UAH, and GISS global temperature sets all show sharp drops in the last year.
Also see the recent post on what the last 10 years looks like with the same four metrics – 3 of four show a flat trendline.
Here are the 4 major temperature metrics compared top to bottom, with the most recently released at the top:
UK’s Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature anomaly (HadCRUT) Dr. Phil Jones:
Reference: above data is HadCRUT3 column 2 which can be found here
description of the HadCRUT3 data file columns is here
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Dr. James Hansen:
Reference: GISS dataset temperature index data
University of Alabama, Huntsville (UAH) Dr. John Christy:
Reference: UAH lower troposphere data
Remote Sensing Systems of Santa Rosa, CA (RSS):
Reference: RSS data here (RSS Data Version 3.1)
The purpose of this summary is to make it easy for everyone to compare the last 4 postings I’ve made on this subject.
I realize that not all the graphs are of the same scale, so my next task will be to run a combined graphic of all the data-sets on identical amplitude and time scales to show the agreements or differences such a graph would illustrate.
UPDATE: that comparison has been done here
Here is a quick comparison and average of ∆T for all metrics shown above:
| Source: | Global ∆T °C |
| HadCRUT |
– 0.595 |
| GISS | – 0.750 |
| UAH | – 0.588 |
| RSS | – 0.629 |
| Average: | – 0.6405°C |
For all four metrics the global average ∆T for January 2007 to January 2008 is: – 0.6405°C
This represents an average between the two lower troposphere satellite metrics (RSS and UAH) and the two land-ocean metrics (GISS and HadCRUT). While some may argue that they are not compatible data-sets, since they are derived by different methods (Satellite -Microwave Sounder Unit and direct surface temperature measurements) I would argue that the average of these four metrics is a measure of temperature, nearest where we live, the surface and near surface atmosphere.
UPDATE AND CAVEAT:
The website DailyTech has an article citing this blog entry as a reference, and their story got picked up by the Drudge report, resulting in a wide distribution. In the DailyTech article there is a paragraph:
“Anthony Watts compiled the results of all the sources. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C — a value large enough to erase nearly all the global warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year time. For all sources, it’s the single fastest temperature change ever recorded, either up or down.”
I wish to state for the record, that this statement is not mine: “–a value large enough to erase nearly all the global warming recorded over the past 100 years”
There has been no “erasure”. This is an anomaly with a large magnitude, and it coincides with other anecdotal weather evidence. It is curious, it is unusual, it is large, it is unexpected, but it does not “erase” anything. I suggested a correction to DailyTech and they have graciously complied.
UPDATE #2 see this post from Dr. John R. Christy on the issue.
UPDATE #3 see the post on what the last 10 years looks like with the same four metrics – 3 of four show a flat trendline.
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Fuel goes in with x carbon. It comes out with v CO2, w CO, y C particulates, and z HC. Is there more to it than that? Looking forward to your paper… If all the tons of C particulates are being misattributed to CO2 that would be an issue… (rampant speculation…) but you’ve got me interested and thinking
have been working since 2003 on actual emissions calculations of internal combustion engines. I believe the that I can prove that calculations of carbon of specific fuels to co2 is grossly exaggerated. I will be publishing end of 08. This may help the debate of co2 to heat retention.
thankyou..
have been working since 2003 on actual emissions calculations of internal combustion engines. I believe the that I can prove that calculations of carbon of specific fuels to co2 is grossly exaggerated. I will be publishing end of 08. This may help the debate of co2 to heat retention.
hi
[…] but the cooling trend is abundantly clear to everyone this year. The recent cooling in both 2007 and 2008 correlates with decreased solar activity, bolstering the solar theory and contradicting […]
Please read more than just the headlines dig a little deeper and see that the warming of the 90s and no warming since 1998 was tied to the solar activity, which was the lowest since 1900 this past year. Man made CO2 is less than 2% of all the CO2 in the atmosphere, so changing it by any amount would mean nothing and the fact that man made CO2 only accounts for about .117% of the green house effect. Also that historically increases in CO2 follow warming and don’t precede it, and that there is no true correlation to increase of CO2 and increase in temperatures. The global warming climate models have proved themselves totally flawed!
I also find that it is funny that they start the data they want to use, following the last cooling period. In the 70’s there was a global cooling scare. We have actually been having global warming for about 18,000 years. The warmest years were about 1,000 years ago. CO2 is a very weak green house gas and our part in it is so unimportant that it is in the margin of error, so doesnt matter at all in the big picture.
Nature is in control get used to it, and hope we dont have another mini ice age, i vote for warmer not cooler.
[…] EU’s new figurehead believes climate change is a myth January 2008 – 4 sources say “globally cooler” in the past 12 months Watts Up With That? And a "global" increase of 0.06 celsius is no match for an increase of 0.6 in […]
[…] science-related website notes “January 2008 capped a 12 month period of global temperature drops on all of the major […]
[…] science-related website notes “January 2008 capped a 12 month period of global temperature drops on all of the major […]
Do not get caught up in numbers and graphs. This is about graft not graphs. In effect the act of taking advantage of one’ position as trusted or believable in order to make economic gain, profit or gain a power advantage over competition. Of course the trend I show on thermcoat dot com is typical of a house with the same furnace which is lived in by the same people with no structural alterations. It was originally intended to show deterioration of insulation but since 2008 was a dry year and the house was built in 1965, old enough to already have had its degradation you would think, the graph does show that since that so called reference period used by international experts has expired, the opposite trend has prevaild. We are solidly in global coolng.
What we do not realize is that the global cooling is the result of Greenhouse gasses. C02 causes the heat from the sun to be reflected leaving a Global heat deficit. We have not adjusted the historical numbers yet. But when we go back and raise the numbers from years back we will be able to show a longer trend downward proving that indeed we have massive man made global cooling. You must understand that we need to reduce the C02 emmisions using the most effective means possible. So we still recommend that we sell carbon credits. You see we have been buying them up and need to still sell these credits. Additionally we want to impose a ban on lawn watering as humidity has a much greater affect on global temperatures. Just because we now have a cooling trend does not mean we were wrong! We are still affecting the environment and we need to do something about it and we know exactly what to do. The price of my credits should be doubled because the double trend first positive then now negative (after we adjust historical figures back up) shows that humans are having twice the affect on the numbers.
Can’t we all agree that this is a crisis.
[…] It is predicted that this year will shatter all cooling records. HadCRUT GISS UAH and RSS January 2008 – 4 sources say globally cooler in the past 12 months Dr. John Christy (Professor of Atmospheric Science and Director, Earth System Science Center, The […]
It’s cold. Then it’s warm. Then it’s cold. This is the history of the Earth over the past week, month, year, decade, century, millennium, or billion years.
Cold has always been worse for Humanity than warm. Cold wipes out entire civilizations, crushes 40%-50% of the arable land under glaciers, gives whole continents the flu. Warm causes comparatively few deaths, makes more land arable than is lost to desertification, and activates a few viruses that have lain dormant.
Darwin had the reason that the Norse, Gaels, Picts and Germanic tribes grew taller and stronger than other Europeans. These folk were bred to survive in the cold; but so many of them died in that cold, they rarely had sufficient numbers to conquer. The Norse’s biggest moment in the Sun (pun intended) was in the 800s to 1000s A.D. — when Greenland was Green, the world warmer — and the Norse had the numbers to lay waste to Western Europe.
Warm is better. So pray that our planet gets more warm, and less cold (unless you fear a return of Norsemen, say)…
Warmest Regards,
I am just wondering, what happens to the water vapor? We can only cram so much into the atmosphere before it falls back down again or does it have to reach a certain altitude to create precipitation?
I believe it is the latter, only because cooler temps would condense it back into water, yes? Does warming that has to happen to create increases in water vapor have to reduce precipitation?
This, as I understand it (admittedly not all that much) would suggest a warming in the upper levels of the atmosphere that goes down. How would CO2 facilitation of increases in water vapor affect precipitation? Also, if GW has nothing to do with hurricane cycles, how would we expect it to cause desertification?
“Warm is better. So pray that our planet gets more warm, and less cold (unless you fear a return of Norsemen, say)…”
Don’t you know that by going warmer, the iceberg melting will block the oceanic conveyance belt, which would freeze the north hemisphere, which was the cause of the ice ages?
Learn your sciences well before come here and waste everybody’s time!
Ohioholic, you need an adiabatic chart, which will show you at exactly what atmospheric conditions precipitation will occur.
Leo Z.
Um… I don’t know where you got that information, or if you just invented it, but it’s all wrong.
So, time for some well-intended education:
Most polar and Greenland ice is far, far below zero degrees C. Total global warming over the past century has been about 0.6 degrees C [and that slight warming has been almost entirely reversed].
Therefore, even a couple of degrees of warming would not be nearly enough to raise the temperature of the polar ice sheets, or of Greenland, enough to begin melting the ice on a massive scale. Besides, the globe is currently cooling, not warming, so there’s nothing to get alarmed about.
Finally, the ‘oceanic conveyance belt’ as you call it, will not stop, because it can not stop. It exists as a direct result of the Second Law of Thermodynamics, similar to the jet stream; it is a heat transfer mechanism between warmer and cooler latitudes.
Don’t be frightened, Leo. That’s what Al Gore wants. He makes his $millions by trying to scare people. Only the rubes fall for it. Don’t be a rube.
Sure it can stop, if the sun stops shining, or the Earth stops rotating on its axis. Of course if the continents suddenly shifted thousands of miles the current would change dramatically. Essentially the current configuration of continents keeps the THC the way it is.
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