Josh writes: As visitors here know there’s a video titled “How reliable are satellite temperatures?” with the usual suspects giving their expert opinions. You can watch the video here and read the post on WUWT here.
H/t @GroenMNG for the idea.
[Typo fixed]
NOTE/update: To be clear, this most influential tree, YAD06, was used in Briffa 2000, not MBH98 and the original hockey stick
See: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/01/mirror-posting-yad06-the-most-influential-tree-in-the-world/
Josh has simply taken artistic license on the claims of accuracy that swirl around dendro reconstructions, and the difficulty in extracting accurate centennial scale reproductions. He writes:
The reference was to Mann (the pose taken from the recent video) talking about satellites while not being an expert in that field while happily using duff data to pronounce on global temperatures.
Anthony
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Nice hockey stick tree!
Is it me, or did Mr Mann’s nose just grow a bit?
More than a bit. He needed Geppetto to conduct plastic surgery.
Woodn’t that be painful?
It wood. So, no.
Knot painful at all, as he’s a-board the consensus train 🙂
Planed the nose on his face? S2S, surfaced two sides?
Mann, ‘this tree here tells me the temperature history of the last 1000 years for the whole globe, year round, I can get this from the 3 months of growing season. Satellites do not do as good of a job since they take 12 months of data for a year and not 3. How can we trust satellites? Yeah we can use satellites to infer Mars’ temperature, Saturns’ temperature and planets light years away, but for Earth they are not accurate at all. Tree rings are the best for temperatures on Earth, you use the portions you want and you use my trick of cutting of recent data you do not like. Trust me I am Mike ‘hide the decline trick’ Mann”
You mean The-Pinocchio-effect?
You will have to analyse the ring count in Geppeto-Mann’s nose to see just how fast it did grow.
“The growth rings in my nose are getting wider and wider; this proves absolutely that things are warming up; even as I speak the growth rings are increasing in size.”
The blue fairy needs to grant him his wish; “Look at me … I’m a real scientist.”
As McIntyre points out: “YAD061 reaches 8 sigma and is the most influential tree in the world.” WUWT, October 1st, 2009.
Was YAD061 Briffa’s favourite tree as well, or was it only Mann’s favourite? I am a little confused on this point.
Josh …” You can watch the video here and read the post on WUWT is here.” ….drop the ” is ” or the ” read ” !! ( I know, too early on the A.M. ) !!
in….DOH !!
LOL…..coffee infustion stat
Need coffee, more coffee …LOL
Fixed, thanks!
The tree seems to be an “adjusted model”.
Size matters, so I agree.
{This is SO often cited by so many decent, generous-spirited, loving, men, that I am on a bit of a campaign to correct this misimpression to boost their self-esteem!}
Size does NOT matter (see below: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/01/18/monday-mirth-old-reliable/comment-page-1/#comment-2122587 )
to the people who count!
I must apologize, after all this time, and he has passed away, my dawg did it, it was his favorite tree
Since Michael Mann claimed to be a Nobel Laureate for years, and he was duly spanked for doing so because he wasn’t, how can you trust anything coming out of this man’s mouth?
Trenberth still does.
Yes.
Here’s Trenberth and Mann, momentarily devastated by the fact that their mountain never materialized, juuust flat-as-a-pancake for …… over 18 years…..
Dumb and Dumber — An AGW Allegory
(youtube)
…….. but, not for long! Nucitelli (and his moped) to the rescue! With his motormouth pumping out 97 l1es per minute, they have a full tank and are ON the ROAD — AGAIN!
But, but…
it is a very smart tree!
Like most men tell women … ” It’s bigger than it looks, honest ” !!
Marcus. To the ONLY woman (“the one”, I mean) whose opinion should matter on that topic, it is the size of the HEART alone that matters. If the size of a man’s muscles or any other part of his anatomy matters, then, he should call for the check, pay it, help her into her coat …. and call her a taxi. And NEVER call her again!!
Janice, I agree. The problem is getting it out of their chest for measuring without killing him. Siiigh The saying goes “The quickest way to a man’s heart, is through his stomach”. I always respond with “No it’s not. It’s through his sternum”.
YAD061!!
…Talk about cherry picking !!
Astounding. Josh has called Mann’s magical powers correctly. ‘Expert’ indeed.
One Tree to trick them all, One Tree to fool them, One Tree to convince them all, and in the darkness blind them
“One Tree to trick them all, One Tree to fool them, One Tree to convince them all, and in the darkness blind them”
Thanks Tom. I think JRRT would have approved.
has all the ice melted yet?, they promised that it would all be gone…..
Checking martini … nope
Well…aren’t there a myriad of other factors that govern growth besides ambient temperature?
Snowfall is the main driver !
We have 4 long needle pine shrub plants on the NE side of our house, planted in 1996. Due to the arrangement 1 gets direct sunlight early morning till about 10 AM. 2dn is slightly shaded by the 1st and direct sunlight till 9 am & in summer after 5pm . 3 & 4 get no morning direct sun and summer sun after 4:30 pm. Planted about 6 feet appart.
Same temperature and water being with in 20 feet. Same basic soil and feed.
Plant 1 is 5 ft high and 9 feet dia. (gets trimmed at least 5 inch for the last 5 years.
Plant 2 is 4 ft high and 6 feet dia. (gets trimmed a couple inchs for the last 5 years.
Plants 3 & 4 are 3 ft high and 3 feet dia. (get light shape trimming)
It is the amount of sunlight controlling, not snowfall, or water or temperature. Same goes for our tomato plants, size depends on morning sun.
Worse:
1) It would only apply to the ambient temperature during the growing season.
2) As temperatures increase, there is a point at which increases in temperature retard growth.
I understand that the Alarmists use 1973 as the start (when I was being taught about man made nuclear winter) and it has been made clear that the starting date for the pause was picked deliberately. However, what is the answer to the satellite slowing and loosing altitude claim?
Corrected long ago…
Thanks Marcus. I was looking for the basic answer. I am a skeptic but not a scientist.
Yes.
It is now. And then we count backwards until the trend in temperatures is significant.
Now is special. We live here.
The way you phrased your understanding almost makes it sound as if “now” was cherry-picked like a Yamal tree.
But that is not the case.
The pause is not cherry picked. It starts now and the trend is calculated back in time until the trend starts to be statistically significant
It’s projection. The Climate Faithful assume Skeptics cherry pick because they do, just like how they assume Skeptics must be getting huge amounts of money from special interests and believe in huge conspiracies.
……What !! You didn’t get your ” Big Oil Check ” yet ?? I bought an extra beer with mine !! LOL
Marcus
Me too – with my great-Big Oil Cheque, and an extra beer’s worth of filthy lucre . . . .
Auto
Whatever happened to the global dimming caused by mankind? I thought by now it was predicted there would only be about 10% of sunlight left. Wasn’t that the story? Linear extrapolation of someone’s measurements? We are killing off all plants and animals with our filthy emissions? That is how I remember the alarmist calls.
I guess we can cross that catastrophe off our list of anthropogenic death-cults. Oh well. What’s up next?
Mann should probably seek a doctor’s advice. A bent tree is not a good thing.
In medical terminology, would that be Peyronie’s disease?
DD More- In the description of the four trees in your yard. First, I hope they are only 9, 6, 3, and 3 inches in diameter.
I find this observation very interesting. My study of the morning sun shows that it is the brightest between sunup and 9:30 am local time. This brightness can only be seen during the summer months when the sun swings overhead rather than to the south. I have an upstairs apartment which faces east and west. The paint on the outside wall of the east side has been destroyed by the sun while the west side has held up fairly well. There are other observations around my place that confirms that the morning sun is harsh compared to the afternoon.
I set photo cells around the place to see if they could see the difference and wala, there is a definate peak of radiance at about 9am every morning. The pattern (which I have captured several times in the last two years) seems to begin when the solar cells first detect daylight (earlier than sunup) and has a rounded shape that peaks at 9am (10 for daylight savings) and ends around 10:30.
This pattern is correlated with the increase of temperature. It also is correlated to the increase of barometric pressure that ends when the noon diurnal takes effect.
I have asked the experts about this curious increase of brightness but it seems to be an unknown.
I suggest DD that you put up a solar panel on your roof and start recording the voltage that it puts out when it is tied directly into a voltmeter. My readings peak at 17.5v at 9am. I would suggest mounting them at the peak of the roof looking straight up and not facing the normal sun path tilt.
I also have a photo cell with the voltmeter set on the lowest scale to measure the reflected light from the moon. (used to determine when this pattern begins).
And if there are others reading this blog that are doing this test, feedback would be appreciated.
I thought he was talking about the diameter of the foliage.
Mark W – He probably was but my mind was on the way we size trees..
He has a certain far-away look. Perhaps he is searching for the forest, but that damn hockey tree is in the way.
Run, forest, run… (sorry)…
Ode to the Bristlecone Pine-from Mike Mann
“Oh Bristlecone Pine, from tree rings define
The temperatures known by the past,
And of them I’ll make, a hockey stick fake,
And declare that it’s warming too fast!
But Bristlecone Pine, when you showed a decline,
I knew I’d be viewed as a clown,
So I did all I could, as all egotists would,
And I factored them in upside down!”
🙂
You don’t need Satellite Data to debunk the Hockeystick. Google Maps pretty much maps out the MWP. A Monkey could type War and Peace before a set of independent researchers would ever reconstruct the Hockeystick. The Government should take a group a statiscians, mathmaticians and economatricians, put them in a dark room, give them raw data, and have them create a reconstruction given only limited data about what they are reconstructing and only the raw data. No way would they ever recreate the Hockeystick. Government reserach also needs to be compartmentalied so that no one can control the process from start to finish in order to reach a predetermined outcome.
Study Group #1) Define the problem, and identify the data and techniques that need to be used.
Study Group #2) Assigned data sets to gather, with no knowledge of what they are gathering data for.
Study Group #3) Data adjusting techniques defined by Group #1 would be applied to the raw data to prepare it for analysis.
Study Group #4) The Scientific Method and other predetermined analysis and statistical processes would be applied to the data, and conclusions would be reached.
Study Group #5) Would be assigned to reporduce the conclusions reached by Group #4 to validate their conclusions.
Concentration of power is the enemy of science, just ask Gallileo. No one should be granted as much power as Michael Mann has in the scientific process. Michael Mann is to science today what the Catholic Church was to Gallileo, and science in the past.
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=zvwgQ0tAjx_k.keO5eR4ueHXE
Study Group #6) would be assigned the task to prove it’s all a load of bollocks.
Stupid
John
OMG!!! I’ve never seen this data series before, but how isn’t this considered outright fraud? What happens if you use the other trees? That would be an interesting result. Anyway, this proves my point that a monkey would type War and Peace before any independent honest researcher would ever reconstruct the Hockeystick. This whole AGW theory is based upon a chart that is unreproducable if the researchers are given only the raw data and no knowledge of the made up statistical techniques intended to hide the decline.
It’s not fraud. The data is real enough. And clearly, all but one or two trees actually do show an upward inclination in the last 50 years and all do so over the last century. YAD071 simply shows the very best correlation to the CO2 increase over the same time. What Mann did was to assume the consequent and then grab what best reflected his assumptions. As statistics goes it is pathetic, which McIntyre and McItrick showed.
Choosing to show the results of a single tree from hundreds (thousands?) and concealing the data from all the others is still fraud.
Fraud is the use of deception to gain advantage, or cause harm.
Fraud is precisely what you defined it and demands motive. While anyone with access to the DSM might diagnose Mann as having a serious problem, you need to show that the “gain” or “harm” is more than simple socio-psychological behaviour. A perusal of the climategate emails shows that Mann was neither liked nor trusted by his colleagues. All we “have” on Mann is evidence of massive ego and more or less sociopathic confidence in his own correctness. He is not seeking advantage, he actually believes he has it. So, no, the hockey stick is simply the worst side of science. Mann should have retracted it, but, he really is a “believer,” confident of his own ideas, and it will be a very cold day for the devil before he retracts anything.
co2islife January 18, 2016 at 8:08 am
OMG!!! I’ve never seen this data series before, but how isn’t this considered outright fraud?
Sadly, for those of us who have been watching this debate for a long time, this particular but of insantiy (along with quite a few others) has long drifted into distant memory. For those new to the debate, it is an OMG! moment.
Perhaps WUWT should start re-running the earth shattering threads from the past to help the newest crop of skeptics get up to speed? The headlines of the last couple of years don’t tell the story very well about just how bad the science has been corrupted. (For those who are wondering, yes, it is worse than you thought).
“Perhaps WUWT should start re-running the earth shattering threads from the past to help the newest crop of skeptics get up to speed?”
Blasts from the past–a good idea. Or maybe go through past threads and purt stars on the top 10%, for those who look at the titles in the archives.
Well, the raw data is not fraudulent, it was what followed that was “misrepresentative of the information contained in the data”.
The technique used is not to drop all the other data sets, it is to weight them so that ones that are ‘correct’ are weighted more and ones that ‘fail to reproduce temperatures’ are weighted less. If, for example, you weight YAD061 by 400 fold because it is “right” and the ones that are “wrong” once, then the combination, with weighting, looks a lot like the one weighted 400 times the others.
That of course, is where the misrepresentation lies because it drives a conclusion that is completely at variance with the data set as a whole.
Old Reliable – cheerleader for Unreliable Energy.
Congress should take a look at these findings, identify the cherry picked outliers that Michael Manny used, provide him the data on the MWP Google Map and force him to reconstruct his Hockeystick without any of the Cherry Picked Outliers. The “Guilty Flee when No One Pursues.” The way Michael Mann reacted to Steve McIntyre’s challenges is what would be expected from a Mann trying to hide something.
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=zvwgQ0tAjx_k.keO5eR4ueHXE
Even Pro Hockey Players have stopped using sticks made from trees!!
I would love to see Congress ask these questions highlighted in this documentary.
https://youtu.be/QowL2BiGK7o?t=30m38s
Remind me how trees can tell the average temperature of the lower troposphere. I seemed to have missed something. The surface of an orange is not the orange nor the peel of an apple the apple. A hundred or two years ago, the surface temperatures were a better indication of climate than our currently asphalt covered heat generating urban heat islands. These days much less so.
Bravo!!! I would love Congress to ask Michael Mann about the adjustments he made to his tree ring data to adjust for those issues. This science is simply pathetic. It is so clear all they are doing is looking for data to support a conclusion.
BTW, CO2 isn’t the only thing that has increased since 1950s that influence the temperature. Temperature and miles of highways added also correlate nicely, and the highways can explain the pause and the differential between the N and S Hemisphere, which CO2 can’t.
This is Las Vegas, I’m pretty sure that the heat profile of Las Vegas is wildly different from the surrounding desert. Mile and miles and miles of asphalt will change the temperature far more than CO2. IMHO, the development of the I-State Highway System and urban flight has done far more for altering temperatures than CO2, and this explains the N S Hemi differential.
So, if we can’t trust satellites, is it safe to fly commercially? We trust our lives to them? Do they suffer from atomospheric drag too? Hmm…don’t they compensate for that? Didn’t I read that they have adjusted for atmospheric drag, some time back? Isn’t it inconvenient that their excuses get weaker and weaker? If you believe them – don’t fly! Save yourself! We can’t trust satellite positioning systems either because they suffer from atmospheric drag too – don’t they?
The climatastrophists are the type of people that will pull the fire alarm in a large office if someone breaks wind.