Guest Post by Bob Tisdale
This post provides an update of many of the ENSO-related variables we presented as part of the 2014-15 El Niño Series. The reference years for comparison graphs in this post are 1997 and 2014, which are the development years of the strongest recent El Niño and the last El Niño. I have not included animations in this post. In their place, I’ve compared present-day maps from the NOAA GODAS website to the same time in 2014.
Because this El Niño is now working at becoming a multiyear event, in an upcoming post, we’ll compare the current event to the 1986/87/88 El Niño, which was the only multiyear El Niño during the satellite and TAO project eras.
Note: In addition to the standard time-series presentations of global, NINO3.4, hemispheric and ocean basin sea surface temperature anomalies, I’ve also added an updated graph of the sea surface temperature anomalies for The Blob to the standard format of the monthly sea surface temperature updates at my website.
INTRODUCTION – NINO3.4 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE APPROACHING THE 1.5 DEG C THRESHOLD OF A STRONG EL NIÑO
NOAA defines a Strong El Niño as: “Episode when the peak Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is greater than or equal to 1.5°C.” (See the footnotes of the NOAA ENSO blog post here.) And NOAA’s Oceanic Niño Index is a three-month running average of NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies.
Weekly NINO3.4 sea surface temperatures for the week centered on June 17, 2015 are at 1.4 Deg C, the high end of a moderate El Niño.
Figure 0
Sea surfaces for the NINO regions east of the NINO3.4 region are warmer.
THE 2014/15 EL NIÑO HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE NOAA OCEANIC NINO INDEX
We discussed in the recent post here how NOAA added the 2014/15 El Niño to their ERSST.v3b-based Oceanic NINO Index (ONI) in April 2015, after the ONI values for 5 consecutive 3-month averages registered at or above the +0.5 deg C threshold. With NOAA’s recent switch to their ERSST.v4 data, the 2014/15 event no longer qualifies as an El Niño on the current Oceanic NINO Index.
We followed that post with another one here that showed the El Niño processes in 2014 resulted in what appears to be a relatively strong El Niño if we do not focus on the NINO3.4 region, but look at the sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific as a whole.
ENSO METRIC UPDATES
This post provides an update on the progress of the evolution of the 2015/16 El Niño (assuming one continues into next year) with data through the end of May 2015, and for the weekly data through Mid-June. The post is similar in layout to the updates that were part of the 2014/15 El Niño series of posts here. The post includes 17 illustrations so it might take a few moments to load on your browser. Please click on the illustrations to enlarge them.
Included are updates of the weekly sea surface temperature anomalies for the four most-often-used NINO regions. Also included are a couple of graphs of the monthly BOM Southern-Oscillation Index (SOI) and the NOAA Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI).
For the comparison graphs we’re using the El Niño evolution years of 1997 and 2014 (a very strong El Niño and the last El Niño) as references for 2015. The 1997/98 El Niño was extremely strong, while the 2014/15 event was extremely weak and intermittent.
And since there is another downwelling (warm) Kelvin wave making its way east along the equator in the Pacific, also included in this post are evolution comparisons using warm water volume anomalies and depth-averaged temperature anomalies from the NOAA TOA project website.
Then, we’ll take a look at a number of Hovmoller diagrams comparing the progress so far this year to what happened in both 1997 and 2014.
Last, we’ll compare maps and cross sections (2014 and 2015) from the GODAS website of a number of ENSO-related metrics.
NINO REGION TIME-SERIES GRAPHS
Note: The weekly NINO region sea surface temperature anomaly data for Figures 1 and 2 are from the NOAA/CPC Monthly Atmospheric & SST Indices webpage, specifically the data here. The base years for anomalies for the NOAA/CPC data are referenced to 1981-2010.
Figure 1 includes the weekly sea surface temperature anomalies of the 4 most-often-used NINO regions of the equatorial Pacific. From west to east they include:
- NINO4 (5S-5N, 160E-150W)
- NINO3.4 (5S-5N, 170W-120W)
- NINO3 (5S-5N, 150W-90W)
- NINO1+2 (10S-0, 90W-80W)
As of the week centered on June 17, 2015, the sea surface temperature anomalies for all NINO regions were at or above the 1.0 deg C threshold of moderate El Niño conditions. NINO1+2 region anomalies are about 2.7 deg C, the highest they’ve been since the 1997/98 El Niño. And NINO3 region anomalies are at 1.8 deg C. It looks like we might see an East Pacific El Niño this year. They’re typically stronger than Central Pacific El Niños, a.k.a. El Niño Modoki.
Figure 1
Note that the horizontal red lines in the graphs are the present readings, not the trends.
EL NIÑO EVOLUTION COMPARISONS FOR NINO REGION SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
Using weekly sea surface temperature anomalies for the four NINO regions, Figure 2 compares the goings on this year with the 1997/98 and 2014/15 events. All of the NINO regions this year are warmer than during the same times of the 2014/15 El Niño, and with the exception of the NINO1+2 region, they’re warmer than the 1997/98 El Niño. Then again, we started this year in weak El Niño conditions, while we didn’t during the two reference years.
Figure 2
THE MULTIVARIATE ENSO INDEX
The Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is another ENSO index published by NOAA. It was created and is maintained by NOAA’s Klaus Wolter. The Multivariate ENSO Index uses the sea surface temperatures of the NINO3 region of the equatorial Pacific, along with a slew of atmospheric variables…thus “multivariate”.
According to the most recent Multivariate ENSO Index update discussion, strong El Niño conditions exist:
The updated (April-May) MEI has risen by 0.61 standard deviations in one month to +1.57, for a high ranking above the ‘strong’ El Niño threshold (upper 10%ile). This is the highest MEI value in 17 years, surpassing the peak of the 2009-10 El Niño by a few 1/100.
There’s something else to consider about the MEI. El Niño and La Niña rankings according to the MEI aren’t based on fixed threshold values such as +0.5 for El Niño and -0.5 for La Niña. The MEI El Niño and La Niña rankings are based on percentiles, top 30% for the weak to strong El Niños and the bottom 30% for the weak to strong La Niñas. This is difficult to track, because, when using the percentile method, the thresholds of El Niño and La Niña conditions vary from one bimonthly period to the next, and they can change from year to year.
The Multivariate ENSO Index update discussion and data for April/May were posted back on June 6th. Figure 3 presents a graph of the MEI time series starting in Dec/Jan 1979. And Figure 4 compares the evolution this year to the reference El Niño-formation years of 1997 and 2014.
Figure 3
# # #
Figure 4
EL NIÑO EVOLUTION COMPARISONS WITH TAO PROJECT SUBSURFACE DATA
The NOAA Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean (TAO) Project website includes data for two temperature-related datasets for the waters below the equatorial Pacific. See their Upper Ocean Heat Content and ENSO webpage for descriptions of the datasets. The two datasets are Warm Water Volume (above the 20 deg C isotherm) and the Depth-Averaged Temperatures for the top 300 meters (aka T300). Both are available for the:
- Western Equatorial Pacific (5S-5N, 120E-155W)
- Eastern Equatorial Pacific (5S-5N, 155W-80W)
- Total Equatorial Pacific (5S-5N, 120E-80W)
Keep in mind that the longitudes of 120E-80W stretch 160 deg, almost halfway around the globe. For a reminder of width of the equatorial Pacific, see the protractor-based illustration here.
In the following three illustrations, we’re comparing data for the evolution of the 2015/16 “season” so far (through May 2015) with the data for the evolutions of the 1997/98 and 2014/15 El Niños. The Warm Water Volume data are the top graphs and the depth-averaged temperature data are the bottom graphs. As you’ll see, the curves of two datasets are similar, but not necessarily the same.
Let’s start with the Western Equatorial Pacific (5S-5N, 120E-155W), Figure 5. The warm water volume data show the Western Equatorial Pacific began 2015 with noticeably less warm water than during the opening months of 1997 and 2014. Depth-averaged temperature anomalies, though, are now comparable to 2014.
Figure 5
Because we started 2015 in El Niño conditions (or near to them), both warm water volume and depth-averaged temperature anomalies in the Eastern equatorial Pacific (5S-5N, 155W-80W) started and continue to be higher at the beginning of this year than in 2014. This year the eastern warm water volume has fallen behind the values of 1997, but are only slightly less with the 1997 eastern depth-averaged temperature anomalies. See Figure 6.
Figure 6
Across the entire equatorial Pacific, Figure 7, warm water volume and depth-averaged temperature anomalies in 2015 are higher than they were in 2014, but lower than they were in 1997.
Figure 7
SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX (SOI)
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology is another widely used reference for the strength, frequency and duration of El Niño and La Niña events. We discussed the Southern Oscillation Index in Part 8 of the 2014/15 El Niño series. It is derived from the sea level pressures of Tahiti and Darwin, Australia, and as such it reflects the wind patterns off the equator in the southern tropical Pacific. With the Southern Oscillation Index, El Niño events are strong negative values and La Niñas are strong positive values, which is the reverse of what we see with sea surface temperatures. The May 2015 Southern Oscillation Index value is -13.7, which is a greater negative value than the threshold of El Niño conditions. (The BOM threshold for El Niño conditions is an SOI value of -8.0.) Figure 8 presents a time-series graph of the SOI data. Note that the horizontal red line is the present monthly value, not a trend line.
Figure 8
The graphs in Figure 9 compare the evolution of the SOI values this year to those in 1997 and 2014…the development years of the 1997/98 and 2014/15 El Niños. The top graph shows the raw data. Because the SOI data are so volatile, I’ve smoothed them with 3-month filters in the bottom graph. Referring to the smoothed data, the Southern Oscillation Index this year is ahead of the values in 2014, but behind 1997.
Figure 9
Also see the BOM Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values webpage. For the past week (through June 26), SOI values have been very low, reaching into the -40s. But prior to that, they had worked their way positive. The current 30-day running average is no longer a greater negative value than the -8.0 threshold of an El Niño based on the Southern Oscillation Index, and the 90-day average is just at the threshold.
COMPARISONS OF HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS OF THIS YEAR (TO DATE) WITH 1997 AND 2014
NOTE: The NOAA GODAS website has not yet added 2015 to their drop-down menu for Hovmoller diagrams. For the following illustrations, I’ve used the Hovmolller diagrams available for the past 12 months, deleted the 2014 date and aligned the 2015 data with the other 2 years.
Hovmoller diagrams are a great way to display data. If they’re new to you, there’s no reason to be intimidated by them. Let’s take a look at Figure 10. It presents the Hovmoller diagrams of thermocline depth anomalies (the depth of the isotherm at 20 deg C. Water warmer than 20 deg C is above the 20 deg C isotherm and below it the water is cooler). 2015 is in the center, 1997 on the left and 2014 to the right. (Sorry about the different sizes of the Hovmollers, but somewhere along the line NOAA GODAS changed them, but they are scaled, color-coded, the same.)
The vertical (y) axis in all the Hovmollers shown in this post is time with the Januarys at the top and Decembers at the bottom. The horizontal (x) axis is longitude, so, moving from left to right in each of the three Hovmoller diagrams, we’re going from west to east…with the Indian Ocean in the left-hand portion, the Pacific in the center and the Atlantic in the right-hand portion. We’re interested in the Pacific. The data are color-coded according to the scales below the Hovmollers.
Figure 10
Figure 10 is presenting the depth of the 20 deg C isotherm along a band from 2S to 2N. The positive anomalies, working their way eastward early in 1997, 2014 and 2015, were caused by downwelling Kelvin waves, which push down on the thermocline (the 20 deg C isotherm). You’ll note how, early in 2014, the anomalies grew in strength as the Kelvin wave migrated east. (We should expect the same to happen this year.) That does not mean the Kelvin wave is getting stronger as it traveled east; that simply indicates that the thermocline is normally closer to the surface in the eastern equatorial Pacific than it is in the western portion.
The El Niño conditions were much stronger in 1997 than they were in 2014 and so far in 2015.
An upwelling (cool) Kelvin wave followed the initial downwelling (warm) Kelvin wave in 2014 and suppressed the development of the El Niño last year. So far that has not happened in 2015.
Figure 11 presents the 2015-to-date along with the 1997 and 2014 Hovmollers for wind stress (not anomalies) along the equator. The simplest way to explain them is that they’re presenting the impacts of the strengths and directions of the trade winds on the surfaces of the equatorial oceans. In this presentation, the effects of the east to west trade winds at various strengths are shown in blues, and the reversals of the trade winds into westerlies are shown in yellows, oranges and reds. To explain the color coding, the trade winds normally blow from east to west; thus the cooler colors for stronger than normal east to west trade winds. The reversals of the trade winds (the yellows, oranges and reds) are the true anomalies and they’re associated with El Niños, which are the anomalous state of the tropical Pacific. (A La Niña is simply an exaggerated normal state.)
Figure 11
The two westerly wind bursts shown in red in the western equatorial Pacific in 2014 are associated with the strong downwelling Kelvin wave that formed at the time. (See the post ENSO Basics: Westerly Wind Bursts Initiate an El Niño.) Same thing with the three westerly wind busts in 2015: they initiated the Kelvin wave this year. Throughout 1997, there was a series of westerly wind bursts in the western equatorial Pacific. We didn’t see the additional westerly wind bursts later in 2014, which suppressed the evolution of the 2014/15 El Niño. The most recent westerly wind burst happened in May of 2015 and helped to strengthen the El Niño this year.
We’ll need more westerly wind bursts this year, too, in order for this El Niño to continue to develop throughout the year.
Figure 12 presents the Hovmollers of wind stress anomalies…just a different perspective. But positive wind stress anomalies, at the low end of the color-coded scale, are actually a weakening of the trade winds, not necessarily a reversal.
Figure 12
NOTE: There are a number of wind stress-related images on meteorological websites. Always check to see if they’re presenting absolute values or anomalies.
And Figure 13 presents the Hovmollers of sea surface temperature anomalies. Unfortunately, the Hovmoller of sea surface temperature anomalies is delayed a few weeks at the GODAS website. But as we’ve seen in the comparison graphs in Figure 2, with the exception of the NINO1+2 region, the sea surface temperature anomalies of the NINO regions in 2015 are ahead of those in 1997 and 2014.
Figure 13
Notice how warm the eastern equatorial Pacific got during the evolution of the 1997/98 El Niño. While the sea surface temperatures this year may be on the verge of a strong El Niño, they’ve still got a lot of work to do to reach the strength of the 1997/98 El Niño.
GODAS MAPS AND CROSS SECTIONS – LATE MARCH 2014 AND 2015
As opposed to presenting animations from NOAA’s GODAS website of maps and cross sections of a number of metrics, I thought it would be better (more informative) to compare the most recent maps and cross sections from this year to those from the same time last year. So let’s start with the cross sections of temperature anomalies along the equator.
Figure 14 compares the subsurface temperature anomalies along the equator (2S-2N) for the pentads (5-day averages) centered on June 17, 2015 (left) and June 17, 2014 (right). The equatorial Indian Ocean is to the left in both Illustrations and the equatorial Atlantic is to the right. We’re interested in the equatorial Pacific in the center. The illustrations confirm what was shown in the depth-averaged temperature anomaly graphs in Figures 5 and 6. The subsurface temperature anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific are cooler this year than last, but in the eastern equatorial Pacific, they’re warmer this year.
Figure 14
Figure 15 presents global maps of the depth-averaged temperature anomalies to depths of 300 meters (a.k.a. T300 anomalies). Looking at the tropical Pacific as a whole, not just the equator, the downwelling Kelvin wave this year, which definitely appears stronger than last year, is traveling eastward into a warmer eastern tropical Pacific than last year. Keep in mind, though, that the downwelling (warm) Kelvin wave this year started later than in 2014 and that there was an upwelling (cool) Kelvin wave last year by this time that helped to suppress it. Also note that the western tropical Pacific is much cooler this year than last. Does this mean that the upwelling (cool) Kelvin wave that follows will be much stronger than the one last year? We’ll have to wait and watch.
Figure 15
Sea surface height anomalies, Figure 16, are often used as a proxy for temperature anomalies from the surface to the ocean floor. They are showing lower sea levels in the western tropical Pacific this year than last and showing that the downwelling Kelvin wave is moving into a warmer eastern tropical Pacific.
Figure 16
The sea surface temperature anomaly maps at the GODAS website lag by a few weeks. Figure 17 shows the sea surface temperature anomaly maps for 2014 and 2015 for the pentads centered on June 12th. The sea surface temperature anomalies along the equatorial Pacific are warmer this year than last, concentrated this year just east and west of the dateline. The eastern North Pacific is also warmer this year, with the remnants of the “blob” and the coastally trapped Kelvin wave(s) from last year.
Figure 17
Let’s hope a very strong La Niña follows the El Niño this year and finally overcomes the effects of the “blob” on the North Pacific. Even then, there may have been an upward shift in sea surface temperatures there, which would impact the entire east Pacific. We’ll have to keep an eye on it over the next few years.
EL NIÑO REFERENCE POSTS
For additional introductory discussions of El Niño processes see:
- An Illustrated Introduction to the Basic Processes that Drive El Niño and La Niña Events
- El Niño and La Niña Basics: Introduction to the Pacific Trade Winds
- La Niñas Do NOT Suck Heat from the Atmosphere
- ENSO Basics: Westerly Wind Bursts Initiate an El Niño
Also see the entire 2014-15 El Niño series. We discussed a wide-range of topics in those posts.
WANT TO LEARN MORE ABOUT EL NIÑO EVENTS AND THEIR AFTEREFFECTS?
Or, yay, a commercial!
My ebook Who Turned on the Heat? goes into a tremendous amount of detail to explain El Niño and La Niña processes and the long-term aftereffects of strong El Niño events. Who Turned on the Heat? weighs in at a whopping 550+ pages, about 110,000+ words. It contains somewhere in the neighborhood of 380 color illustrations. In pdf form, it’s about 23MB. It includes links to more than a dozen animations, which allow the reader to view ENSO processes and the interactions between variables.
Last year, I lowered the price of Who Turned on the Heat? from U.S.$8.00 to U.S.$5.00. And the book sold well.
A free preview in pdf format is here. The preview includes the Table of Contents, the Introduction, the first half of section 1 (which was provided complete in the post here), a discussion of the cover, and the Closing. Take a run through the Table of Contents. It is a very-detailed and well-illustrated book—using data from the real world, not models of a virtual world. Who Turned on the Heat? is only available in pdf format…and will only be available in that format. Click here to purchase a copy.
My sincerest thanks to everyone who has purchased a copy of Who Turned on the Heat? as a result of the 2014-15 and the recent El Nino series.
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Combined with the fact that the arctic sea ice looks quite precarious this year, the outlook clearly isn’t good.
Quite precarious in what way ? … and what outlook, and why isn’t it good ?
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current_new.png
NOAA Cfsv2 showing a very interesting projection for the coming Arctic melt:-
http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/sieMon.gif
Will it happen? Nobody knows, just a model projection:-)
That’s a huge model. Maybe not a huggable one; too cold.
===========
Well, I’ve given you a few days to answer Julien and you haven’t, so I’ll say yes, the Arctic sea ice does look precarious for the climate liars, parasites, charlatans and scientific morons and also a yes to the fact their outlook clearly isn’t good.
Yep you got the world is coming to an end!
or not
Combined with the fact that this is an article about ENSO, a tropical Pacific weather phenomenon, the outlook is that your comment about Polar sea ice is irrelevant.
FIFY
Gees, at some stage , IFFFF the pause actually turns to warming for a few decades, we may even get to the “seasonal” ice of most of the early to mid part of the Holocene, rather than the rather high levels of Arctic ice the world, an particularly the northern countries, has had to cope with since the cooling to the LIA.
Won’t that be SCARY !!!!!!
Dream on while you look at the situations in Greenland and Norway, countries that are still waiting for summer to start. In some areas of Norway, where you should see green pastures and sheep, there was four feet of snow on the ground a few days back.. You don’t see vistas on some roads normally fully open for the tall banks of snow on either side. The NAO has gone cold and that will have some influence on both warming and Arctic Ice.
I haven’t been to Norway this year, but in many parts of Norway even quite far south, the snow does not begin to melt until June.
I can remember one year driving from Bergen to Oslo in mid June. When I left Bergen it was about 32degC, I drove over Hardangervidda and the road was cut through walls of snow over 2 metres high. I stood on the roof of my car taking some photos because there were several cottages only the very top of the chimney was vissible. The entire cottages were buried under snow. You could hear the sound of running water, the snow was obviously melting.
That said, I do understand that it has been ‘cold’ so far this year in Norway.
Julien: “Combined with the fact that the arctic sea ice looks quite precarious this year, the outlook clearly isn’t good.”
Utter alarmist drivel.
Stop making stuff up.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current.png
Based on what metric? Sea ice volume and mean thickness are higher than they’ve been since 2006. Extent is headed towards an above-average summer melt season. And the Hovmoller maps show that as the “blob” along the Alaska/Canada/US coastline continues to migrate east and south, as well as a cooling of the North Atlantic, everything is in place for colder Arctic SST’s and an increase in extent during next winter’s growth.
Combined with the fact that the Antarctic sea ice is at record levels this year, the outlook is clearly good.
FIFY.
For global cooling maybe. I’ll take global warming any day of the week.
But I’m not so sure what is more dangerous, natural global cooling or world governments exerting total control over the global economy in the name of “saving us.”
I never understand about El Nino having anything to do with AGW. If the sea absorbs the heat energy frrom the air, why does it take an El Nino to cause AGW if the heat is in the air, why would it be absorbed by the oceans and not fust breeze over and warm stuff up anyway. Surely it is the sun warming the oceans and the ocean currents move the warm water around?
Yet, the radical extremists of Global Warming seem to claim that hot years are made by CO2 but do explain the cooler years and only a few seem to grudgingly accept that El Nino is a natural occurence and non man made.
You are talking about people who think a cold wind blowing over the sea causes deep water warming. With Orwell’s “doublethink”, anything is possible
Here in Orange County CA, we’ve had an invasion of red crabs on our shores. According to a news article I read on it, it said the last time this happened was at or around the beginning of the last El Nino in ’98.
This is bad. All it will take is for the first chart to show a spike anywhere above the line, and the cry from the Warmanistas will be instantaneous:
See!!!! NO PAUSE!!! We TOLD YOU SO!!!…WE ARE RIGHT, you deniers, you!
I can see them rubbing their hands in glee and preparing an onslaught of press releases now.
Indeed – that should apply to everything ENSO-oriented. Did you know the eastern pacific equatorial waters are in the process of *cooling* ?!?! Look at the Sea Surface Temperature animation at the link below…
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
You can see, across the whole Pacific basin, the warm water is shifting northward which is expects during the north hemi summer & the south hemi winter and the opposite occurs 6 months later.
Yes, they (Nino Regions 1,2 & 3) are still above normal, but the waters are just not cooling as fast…and this is important to remember – the atmosphere does not react to an ‘anomaly’, it reacts to the actual condition.
All of the ENSO ‘anomaly’ charts/displays make it appear the water is warming when, actually, it is just not cooling as fast as normal (at this time of year)
Bob — Do you think this mean that California will finally get some rain?
Kip, luckily I don’t have to predict weather. California precipitation normally increases during a strong El Nino, but that doesn’t mean it will. It’s just more likely to occur. The wild card for this event is, of course, The Blob.
Bob — Speaking of The Blob, how’s that going these days?
What about also weak polar vortex and wavy jet streams as well? I think that is another wild card. I can imaging weather scooping up heat and moisture and dumping it into the arctic, particularly with the blob up north. How do winds change over the pacific when we have the unusually wavy jet stream that produced the arctic blasts that have plagued us the past couple of years.
According to Murphy’s Law, a strong El Nino in conjunction with The Blob will result in a large hurricane hitting southern California, giving the CAGW cultists all the alarmism they need to pass sweeping economic regulations.
it will
if history is any guide, thank God, it will.
Kip Hansen, sorry for not getting back to you sooner. I was off playing with family.
Per the most recent sea surface temperature update…
https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2015/06/11/may-2015-sea-surface-temperature-sst-anomaly-update/
…the Blob appears contented and not ready to depart soon:
So, Predicted tipping point for political entrepreneurs of all sorts.
Should I stop driving my car now or.. ?
How wonderful… just in time for the Paris hysteria. GK
At the time, the BBC suggested El Niño might scupper England’s chances in the 2014 Football World Cup, as if they needed scuppering. Perhaps they might now like to suggest that El Niño will now affect England’s Cricket chances in the upcoming Ashes Series against Australia in 2015? (Of course, no result at all due to weather is probably England’s best hope.)
Having taken a hammering from the UK electorate in May, the BBC are certainly hoping it will ride to the rescue of some of their other political ambitions in Paris.
Hmmmm I wonder how many thousand of a degree C the global temperatures will rise so NASA and NOAA will be able to declare that 2015 was the warmest year ever in recorded history. It is pathetic that CAGW agencies have to depend upon completely natural events like the El Nino to produce global warming.
I don’t know if I completely buy it. Trades are picking back up in strength and the area of warm water in the equatorial Pacific is declining. And, there is a huge area of cold water sitting just south of the equator. It is as if the area of cool water than had been there a year ago simply drifted south a bit.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/tlon_heat.gif
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gif/sst_wind_anom_5day_jsd.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
The anomalies still indicate westerly wind bursts along the western Pacific edge are still in play. You are seeing Kelvin waves I think.
Joe Bastardi a few weeks ago noted that successive model runs have pulled back projections for a Strong El Nino. Like you observed, ENSO may be running out of fuel. If the El Nino does go Strong, it will be for a short period.
I did not say that, I said a Super Nino which is 5 months above 2.0, Weatherbell.com forecast was for this to be a blend of 57-58, and 65-66 which would give a top 5 month running value of 1.85. The models I referred too had pulled it back to 2.3 which is still a super nino from almost 3. Recent runs are warmer again. But our long standing forecast on this, and subscribers can back me up, as we based our summer forecast and first look at next winter on it, back in April, was for an enso event similar to the strong ones of the late 1950s and 65-66. I also stated that there should be a greater drop in global temps behind the coming spike than the drop in 2012.
From Eric Burdon and the Animals:
I’m just a boy who’s intentions are good.. O Lord please dont let me be misunderstood
Last week, it sucked to be in Yuma, AZ, because of this El Nino. I’m not surprised to see that it is probably going to get stronger. Humidity is at 60 percent this morning at my house with the temperature in the mid-80’s. We have had total cloud cover for the second day in a row. It feels good for a little while in the morning, but feels extra miserable by afternoon. We are getting rain showers not predicted in the forecast. Monsoon season isn’t supposed to hit until mid-July.
Here in NE Oregon we have a heat wave going. Happened before, but of course is “Hyste..er “Historic” (NWS seems to have backed off a bit on that..)
Now they are talking about monsoonal moisture moving north….
It will be a heavy drought in the Western United States. You must look at the stratosphere.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_z100_nh_f168.gif
Thanks, Bob. This is, as always, a very very supported post.
And yes, very inconveniently for the global warming proponents, this El Niño is warming Earth, and is all-natural.
I have completed the links to your Reference Posts from my pages.
The temperature of the eastern Pacific decreases.
http://oi57.tinypic.com/afcye0.jpg
ENSO only refines the temperature variance in a particular climatic regime , and it not capable of sending the climate of the earth into another climatic regime as is the case for all intrinsic earth changes.
Tell that to the fish.
Your wise cracks diminish you contributions Pamela.
In the meantime your thoughts as to why/how the climate may change do not have much merit because you are of the thought that it is random chaotic intrinsic earth changes that can account for the climatic changes which fail miserably on two fronts.
Front one -the climate has a semi cyclic beat to it of around 1500 years.
Front two- the climate sooner or later always reverts to it’s mean.
Those two facts go a long way in discrediting intrinsic earth changes as the reason for why the climate changes.
They go along way in backing up my thoughts as to why the climate changes which are due to Milankovitch Cycles, Solar Variability, Geo Magnetic Variability ,and Land/Ocean Arrangements, and how they phase in relation to one another and the degree of magnitude change that takes place with these factors which then give either a minor, moderate or major climate change but no matter which one the semi cyclic 1470 year cyclic climate beat is always present which eliminates your theories.
Chaotic random walks do not revert to the mean. You should know that.
You make the mistake of focusing on wriggle matching instead of mechanism. The mechanisms I bring forth are already well-researched in short-term variations. I am of the opinion that those same mechanisms, in random walk regimes, are still key.
Pamela is correct. Until academe starts including more research and teaching in the theory of chaos in their scientific computing and numerical analysis courses, we will be hampered in projections by only using least-squares and other curve fitting techniques.
A question:
Why is it that Environment Canada and the US NWS-CPC have been wrong for the past two years in their long-term (~6 month) forecasts for the next winter, and why have others like Joe A and Joe B at WeatherBell accurately nailed both winter forecasts?
When people and institutions make statements, my first question is “What is their predictive track record?”
I suggest that the best predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour.
On this basis, you can take every scary prediction by the IPCC and MULTIPLY IT BY MINUS ONE.
To extent that there has been increase in temperature during the satellite period, these have been in steps coincident upon El Nino events.
it appears that recent El Ninos have released ‘heat’ into the atmosphere which ‘heat’ has not been dissipated, thereby resulting in a step change in temperatures. Whether this will be the pattern long term, who knows.
This appears to be of natural origin, not manmade.
Just my thoughts:
Combining the thermocline indicator (total volume) and the Hovmoller charts, I contend that the Pacific is running out of stored heat, not gaining heat from the small human sourced addition to natural greenhouse gases being added to the atmosphere. Yes we will continue to be warm and maybe a bit warmer where we live, with our heads in the atmosphere and our feet on the ground. Thanks to the oceans for giving us that additional heat besides what is beaming down on our heads. But what happens when the next trade wind slow down comes along and there isn’t enough heat left to warm us up much?
I think we are near or at the peak of a warm period (IE we may have a few more El Nino’s but each one being pretty weak) and will begin a faster downward slide to colder weather variation patterns with a return of trade winds blowing sun blocking clouds out of the way and towards the west Pacific. Let us hope so. The equatorial Pacific stores heat best when the Sun is given unfettered access to its surface and below without pesky El Nino clouds in the way.
Why do I consider insolation pattern variations the main driver in a jagged temperature rise and fall and not human sourced CO2 or solar variation at the top of the atmosphere? Because insolation at Earth’s surface, varied by the Milankovitch cycle, is considered to be a key component of the Milankovitch warming and cooling cycle hypothesis. If it is part of that cycle, it may also explain the noise on time scales of 60 years or more, but in this case, varied by clouds present across the equatorial oceanic band or conversely shoved up against continental mountains. And it is an ENSO cycle that keeps clouds around, warming us but emptying the ocean of stored heat, or that shoves that clouds aside, making us a bit colder by allowing more solar energy to be mixed into and stored in the oceans. The worry is whether or not ENSO cycles sometimes get stuck in one or the other. My hunch is that ENSO gets stuck in cold regimes (powerful easterly trade winds) more often that warm regimes (slack easterly trade winds). And why that guess? Because neutral to super easterly trade winds are the norm. Slack trade winds are the exception. Which explains the fewer named warm periods compared to the more frequent named cold periods.
http://www.awi.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Research/Research_Divisions/Climate_Sciences/Paleoclimate_Dynamics/NewManuscripts/LaeppleSeasonalCycle.pdf
So called ‘greenhouse’ gases do not appear to ‘heat’ the oceans since any energy they backradiate only penetrates a few microns, and there appears to be no effective mechanism that would sequester that energy to depth (mix it to volume) at a rate faster than the energy being absorbed in the top few microns would drive evaporation.
It is the sun that heats the oceans, and changes in patterns of cloudiness being an important factor as to how much solar reaches the ocean surface and percisely where. Also bio activity close to the surface ciould play a role and alter the absorption characteristics.
Pamela what are the mechanisms behind this ,how do you reconcile this with the semi cyclic 1470 year climatic cycle, what causes these intrinsic earth climate random happenings not only to change in the direction they bring the climate to but also result in the climate of the earth having a semi cyclic climatic cycle?
What is the regulator Pam? What are the mechanisms Pam?
I have provided the answers to al these questions with my thoughts as to why the climate changes.
Again, you fail to appreciate the climate mechanisms intrinsic to Earth and appear to think all of them no longer than weather forecasting for the week. What we need from you is to show, for each one of these well-researched intrinsic mechanisms, with links, how your mechanisms trumps intrinsic ones. That is the way research is done. For you to propose an extrinsic system, you need to have a thorough background in intrinsic systems and be able to show, with calculations and physics involving thermo and fluid dynamic theory specific to Earth’s atmospheric and oceanic teleconnected systems, that your mechanisms are calculably stronger. Just saying yours are isn’t enough to get you published.
The recent sea level anomalies give the impression that the Pacific as a whole is losing heat, and fast.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/wksl_anm.gif
Negative anomalies are all over the place and have been strengthening. Considering the fact that water expands and contracts slightly depending on temperature, this suggests a sizable decline in its total heat content when measured from top to bottom.
And here comes the big spike in lower troposphere temperatures?
If heat is evaporating from the oceans, it has to go somewhere and that would be the atmosphere. So yes, I expect continued warmth consistent with El Nino conditions. The question is, will the heat energy being discharged from the oceans be replenished? And how much needs to be replenished to keep Earth comfortable?
What is the source of this graph of SST?
It isn’t SST, it’s sea level anomaly. I criticize it because it does not show long term trends. I haven’t had a chance to look for that metric. It likely is short.
“June 2015 ENSO Update – Tropical Pacific Approaching the Threshold of a Strong El Niño”
BOB, thanks for all your work . I think this 2016 El Nino will be closer to the 2009/2010 El Nino and it will remain more likely a moderate El Nino
Thank you again for the essay.
5. Conclusions
We propose a simple model for insolation-driven climate variability on astronomical time
scales. Under the assumption that the climate response to insolation is the same on
seasonal as well as on astronomical time scales we use the observed seasonal cycle of
temperature to derive the spatially resolved surface temperature variability of the last 750
ka.
The above from the feeble study Pamela sent which shows it is all assumption driven not data driven so they can further their wrong assumptions, and disregard the data which shows otherwise.
Again their thoughts on how the climate system works do not address the fact that the climate is semi cyclic in nature ,and always reverts to it’s mean state over time, or for that matter does not trend in the same direction one it starts moving toward a given direction.
They do not address the variability of solar activity, the geo magnetic field or Milankovitch Cycles other then to either brush then aside or assume the climate of the earth does not respond to them.
This is why these kind of studies which Pamela presents are not held in high regard and do not have the presence that studies related to solar/climate connections enjoy and have.
Solar/climate connections studies do not have high regard or presence. In fact studies such as those presented by Willie Soon do not garner praise from solar scientists. The degree of solar variation presented by Dr. Soon, especially in light of the reconstructed data set, do not match that required for regime shifts in Earth’s climate systems.
Sal, I may not have read your response correctly. Your response, “They do not address the variability of solar activity, the geo magnetic field or Milankovitch Cycles other then to either brush then aside or assume the climate of the earth does not respond to them.”
The premiss of the article stands on the research that affirms the Milankovitch Cycle, a well researched phenomenon, is responsible for extreme ice ages because (of course) solar insolation changes as Earth’s angle changes in its wobbly march towards another ice age in its path around the Sun. It goes on then to propose that changes in solar insolation can also explain interglacial warm and cold regimes. The issue is what would drive solar insolation changes.
Pamela , solar studies have visibility your thoughts do not because they do not have much merit, they are dead ends.
. There are 1000’s of papers and studies that have been wrote about solar/climate relationships because this is the best possible explanation that is out there. If you do not agree with it that is fine but until you can come up with something better which you have not, that is where many of us will stand.
Random walk variability does not always return to the mean. If it did it would not be a random walk. That Sal thinks climate variations, such as the recent warming, do return to the mean uncovers an investigative weakness in his insistence on solar variation drivers of Earth’s recent climate variation.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/05/mystery-climate-index-2-explanation/
Again, you fail to appreciate the climate mechanisms intrinsic to Earth and appear to think all of them no longer
Pamela ,they are dead ends and do not explain anything other then climate variability within a climatic regime.
I have already explained why in my previous post and that is why your explanation receives very little attention in contrast to AGW and Solar Climate relationships because the case can not be made for what you present to any degree of strength. It does not satisfy or reconcile with the historical climatic record.