The Week That Was: 2015-03-28 (March 28, 2015) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
THE JACKSON
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:
· The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.
· The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.
· The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.
· The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.
The three past recipients, Lisa Jackson, Barrack Obama, and John Kerry, are not candidates. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on May 1. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. Thank you.
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Quote of the Week: “Here comes the [Green] orator with his flood of words and his drop of reason.”― Apologies to Benjamin Franklin
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Number of the Week: 6.2%
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THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Intellectual Freedom and Censorship: On her web site, Donna Laframboise, discusses an open letter to museums signed by 54 individuals who described themselves as “members of the scientific community. “ The letter objects to museums receiving funds from “those who profit from fossil fuels or fund lobby groups that misrepresent climate science.” The letter specifically discusses David Koch, who “is a major donor, exhibit sponsor and trustee on the Board of Directors at the Smithsonian’s National Museum of Natural History, and the American Museum of Natural History.” The letter asserts that “Mr. Koch also funds a large network of climate-change-denying organizations, spending over $67 million since 1997 to fund groups denying climate change science.”
Of course, who denies climate change that has been occurring for over a billion years and the $67 million is peanuts compared with the over $35 billion the US government has spent on climate science since 1993, which focuses only on the human influence, largely ignoring the natural influences on climate. By this spending, the US government has created biased science. Some of those who signed the letter, including James Hansen, Kevin Trenberth, and Michael Mann, have benefited from this biased science.
Rather than a point-by-point rebuttal of the many questionable claims presented on the web site “The Natural History Museum.org”, Ms. Laframboise brings up the concept of Intellectual Freedom as defined on the web site of the American Library Association. The section on Intellection Freedom and Censorship merits quoting:
“What Is Intellectual Freedom?
Intellectual freedom is the right of every individual to both seek and receive information from all points of view without restriction. It provides for free access to all expressions of ideas through which any and all sides of a question, cause or movement may be explored.
“Why Is Intellectual Freedom Important?
Intellectual freedom is the basis for our democratic system. We expect our people to be self-governors. But to do so responsibly, our citizenry must be well-informed. Libraries provide the ideas and information, in a variety of formats, to allow people to inform themselves.
“Intellectual freedom encompasses the freedom to hold, receive and disseminate ideas.
“What Is Censorship?
Censorship is the suppression of ideas and information that certain persons—individuals, groups or government officials—find objectionable or dangerous. It is no more complicated than someone saying, “Don’t let anyone read this book, or buy that magazine, or view that film, because I object to it!” Censors try to use the power of the state to impose their view of what is truthful and appropriate, or offensive and objectionable, on everyone else. Censors pressure public institutions, like libraries, to suppress and remove from public access information they judge inappropriate or dangerous, so that no one else has the chance to read or view the material and make up their own minds about it. The censor wants to prejudge materials for everyone.
“How Does Censorship Happen?
Censorship occurs when expressive materials, like books, magazines, films and videos, or works of art, are removed or kept from public access. Individuals and pressure groups identify materials to which they object. Sometimes they succeed in pressuring schools not to use them, libraries not to shelve them, book and video stores not to carry them, publishers not to publish them, or art galleries not to display them. Censorship also occurs when materials are restricted to particular audiences, based on their age or other characteristics.
“Who Attempts Censorship?
In most instances, a censor is a sincerely concerned individual who believes that censorship can improve society, protect children, and restore what the censor sees as lost moral values. But under the First Amendment to the United States Constitution, each of us has the right to read, view, listen to, and disseminate constitutionally protected ideas, even if a censor finds those ideas offensive.
“What Is The Relationship Between Censorship And Intellectual Freedom?
In expressing their opinions and concerns, would-be censors are exercising the same rights librarians seek to protect when they confront censorship. In making their criticisms known, people who object to certain ideas are exercising the same rights as those who created and disseminated the material to which they object. Their rights to voice opinions and try to persuade others to adopt those opinions is protected only if the rights of persons to express ideas they despise are also protected. The rights of both sides must be protected, or neither will survive.”
Under the guise of concern for natural history, the members of “The Natural History Museum.org” are promoting censorship, the suppression of ideas and information that they find objectionable or dangerous.
The tactics by members of Congress to demand information on private funding of certain researchers is also a form of censorship. See links under Suppressing Scientific Inquiry.
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Nature Mann-Handled Again? Mr. Mann, who is engaged in the effort of censorship discussed above, is a co-author with Stefan Rahmstorf, of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, of a paper claiming that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is slowing down, perhaps due to the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The paper was published in Nature Climate Change. As discussed by William Gray, and other skeptics of the concept that human emissions of carbon dioxide are the principal cause of global warming, now called climate change, the AMOC is a critical part of “The Great Ocean Conveyor Belt.” A slow down would have a significant global climate impact, such as a cooling of the northern Atlantic. The well-known Gulf Stream is, in effect, the beginning of the conveyor belt.
The issue is discussed by Anthony Watts, on WUWT, who also presents a NASA animation of the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt. The new paper is contradicted by a paper published last year by oceanographer H. Thomas Rossby, who states his team found no evidence that suggests that the Gulf Stream is slowing down. Perhaps prompted by the new claim, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) issued a press release stating that it found no significant slowing of the AMOC over the past 15 years.
The most devastating critique came from Steve McIntire, a co-author of the research that exposed Mann’s “Nature Trick” in the discredited “hockey-stick”, which depended on truncating (removing) data that refuted the hypothesis. McIntire points out that the new claim is based on proxy data, not measurements. These proxies include stripbark bristlecone chronologies, featured in the “hockey-stick.” [Stripbark trees are partially dead, the bark on part of the tree is gone exposing wood extending from a dead branch to a dead root.] McIntyre was amazed the study was published and concluded: “using ‘Mannian RegEM’ with the Mann et al 2008-9 network of 1209 “proxies”, one can probably “reconstruct” almost anything. Are you interested in “reconstructing” the medieval Dow Jones Index? Or medieval NFL attendance?” See links under Climategate Continued, Changing Seas, and Un-Science or Non-Science?
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Eliminating Tall Tales from Fat Tails: On her web site, Climate Etc., Judith Curry discusses the issue of climate sensitivity, the temperature response of the climate to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. The fat tails are the significant error ranges on the high-end of possible temperature increases from enhanced CO2, usually from a doubling. These error ranges are not empirically derived, but are estimated, guessed, usually by the modelers. They may have little relation to the earth’s climate history.
It is these fat tails that give rise to claims of great damage from CO2, such as dramatic sea level rise, species extinction, and the government’s concept of the Social Cost of Carbon. Government agencies are busily putting a dollar value on this concept, with no empirical basis, no effort to validate the model used, and no regard for the value of enhanced CO2 for agriculture and for feeding humanity.
Curry observes that Russian CMIP-5 model is performing the best with HADCRUT 4 and Berkeley Earth surface temperature data and it “has high inertia from ocean heat capacities, low forcing from CO2 and less water for feedback.” Curry suggests that the justification for fat tails is being reduced. However, with a bureaucratic industry dependent on these tails, actual reduction is doubtful as long as governments continue to fund the human influences on climate and ignore the natural influences. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Atmospheric Temperatures: SEPP favors the atmospheric temperature record compiled by the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH), which is directed by John Christy. Based on satellite measurements, of which Christy was a co-developer, the record is published monthly and is 1) the most comprehensive available, 2) transparent 3) independently verified by radiosonde data from weather balloons, 4) not subject to local human influence, and 5) not manipulated frequently.
In the past, the record was criticized for failing to take into account orbital decay of satellites. Once this error became clear, the record was promptly, and publicly, corrected. Public acknowledgement and correction of errors is how science progresses.
This week, The Guardian newspaper accused UAH of underestimating global warming. As all too frequently, the newspaper was off-base. The scientific paper used to make the claim was focused on a possible under-estimate of the “hot-spot.” A warming over the tropics that is more intense than surface warming, whatever the cause, and which is falsely claimed to be the “human fingerprint.” The new paper claimed that if a certain correction is made to the UAH data, it is more in line with satellite data published by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), NOAA (?), and more in line with the climate models. [NOAA is a funding agency of UAH.] TWTW will leave it to John Christy and / or Roy Spencer to respond to the technical criticism.
However, there are several important points here. First, unless there is some compelling reason to do so, there is no reason to bring observations in line with climate models, particularly since none of the models have been independently verified and validated. Of the many climate models, which one? The entire exercise is similar to a corporate financial officer preparing the annual corporate financial report to conform with the projections made by the chief executive officer a year or two earlier. Second, it may be that the surface temperature data at the tropics overestimates the actual warming of the tropics. If so, then adjusting the atmospheric observations covers up this failure. See links under Un-Science or Non-Science?
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More on Cooking the Books: On his web site, Richard Tol has an effective critique on the Cook et al. paper falsely claiming that 97% of climate scientists agree that humans are responsible for global warming/climate change. This claim is used by members of Congress to justify investigations of private individuals and by the President for his expansion of control over energy and the economy.
Among the many points that Tol makes are that “the sample was padded with irrelevant papers. An article about TV coverage on global warming was taken as evidence for global warming. In fact, about three-quarters of the papers counted as endorsements had nothing to say about the subject matter.”
An abbreviated version of the critique was published in “The Australian”, prompting Jo Nova to write: “Don’t ask how bad a paper has to be to get retracted. Ask how bad it has to be to get published.”
An economist, Richard Tol was a lead author of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR-5), Working Group II, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. He withdrew, stating the AR-5 was too alarmist and did not provide for adaption. He also questions current calculations on the Social Costs of Carbon. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy
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Changing Waters: Patrick Moore, one of the founders of Greenpeace, who has since left, gives four succinct reasons why we should not fear that enhanced CO2 will cause the so-called ocean acidification and it is not a threat to creatures in the oceans: 1) higher concentrations of CO2 in the past; 2) buffering from elements such as calcium and magnesium; 3) biology of mollusks allow them to survive in freshwater that is quite acidic and 4) adding CO2 to saltwater aquariums promotes plant and coral growth. See links under Acidic Waters.
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Number of the Week: 6.2%. Based on 2013 data, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates the world total crude oil supply to be 90.1 million barrels per day (bbl/d). Of this, 56.5 million barrels per day (63%) traveled via seaborne trade. Of this maritime oil trade, 17.0 million bbl/d, 30%, traveled through the narrow Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran, listed as the world’s most important chokepoint. EIA estimated that 85% of this oil went to Asia, including Japan, India, South Korea, and China.
In addition, the EIA estimates the next three major chokepoints are the Strait of Malacca (15.2 million bbl/d, 27% of total seaborne trade, also to Asia), the Suez Canal with the nearby SUMED pipeline (4.6 million bbl/d, 8% of total seaborne trade) and Bab el-Mandeb Strait between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula, and Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa (3.5 million bbl/d, 6.2%).
Some oil and military analysts fear that the seizure of Yemen by the Houthis, Islamists hostile to developed countries, will directly disrupt the flow of oil through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and may also lead to a general disruption of the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez. The current surge in oil prices reflects this fear. See links under Energy Issues – Non-US.
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ARTICLES:
Please note that articles not linked or summarized here are reproduced in the Articles Section of the full TWTW that can be found on the web site under the date of the TWTW.
1. Europe’s Cargo Ships Diverted to Sea Rescues
Commercial vessels on busy Mediterranean routes asked to assist with waves of migrants
By Liam Moloney and Costas Paris, WSJ, Mar 26, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Not exactly the climate refugees the U.S. Department of Defense claims.]
[SUMMARY: European cargo ships are being diverted to pick-up “waves of African and Middle Eastern seaborne migrants attempting to reach Europe—218,000 tried to get to Greece and Italy last year—are causing a little-noticed but serious problem for the mercantile ships that ply the Mediterranean.” One shipping line estimated that the effort adds about €100,000 ($109,473) in extra costs, such as fuel and personnel. These refugees are fleeing conflict.
“Last year, Italian authorities called on 700 mercantile vessels to help rescue about 40,000 migrants. One ship supplying the oil platforms off the Libyan coast participated in 62 operations. Many of the ships are Italian, but Greek vessels, as well as ships of other nationalities, are also involved in rescues of migrants trying to reach the Greek coast.”
“As a result, the rescue operations have placed a heavy burden on private vessels, which typically have crews of fewer than 20 and lack the training, medical support and life jackets to help several hundred migrants at a time. Crews often ransack their own food and clothing supplies to help the migrants once they get on board.”
“The ships—which must, according to maritime law, come to the aid of a boat in distress—have also been drawn into dangerous situations. In February, the Italian coast guard ordered one ship to act as a barrier to help pull scores of migrants from an inflatable dinghy in gale-force winds. Coast guard officials from the command center in Rome often have to guide crews on very large vessels to assist flimsy boats and dozens of migrants who often don’t know how to swim.”
“The diverted ships lose as much as a week disembarking the migrants, cleaning the vessel and resupplying, at an extra cost of up to $500,000. Insurance covers only part of the extra costs, and appeals from owners for government compensation have had little impact.”
The ship owners are calling on governments to pay for the costs and assist in the operations]
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2. Obama’s Iran Policy Is Lost at Sea
How can the U.S. hope to keep tabs on Tehran’s nuclear program when we can’t even track its oil tankers?
By Claudia Rosett, WSJ, Mar 26, 2015
http://www.wsj.com/articles/claudia-rosett-obamas-iran-policy-is-lost-at-sea-1427410998
[SUMMARY: “Currently, there are at least 55 of these tankers the Treasury Department says are under U.S. sanctions. These are large ships, major links in the oil chain that sustains the Tehran regime, many of them calling at ports from Turkey to China. They are easier to spot and track than, say, smuggled nuclear parts (which, in a pinch, they could potentially squeeze on board).
“But Iran has engaged for years in what Treasury called “deceptive practices” to dodge sanctions. These include trying to mask the identities, and sometimes the smuggling activities, of its blacklisted ships by renaming them, reflagging them to other countries, veiling their ownership behind front companies, presenting false documents, and engaging in illicit ship-to-ship oil transfers.”
After going through various deceptions by Iran, the author asks: “Under the emerging Iran nuclear deal, especially if sanctions are lifted, how exactly do the U.S. and its partners propose to keep a tighter leash on Iran’s nuclear program than they are now keeping on its shipping traffic?”
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3. Obama’s Alaska Wilderness Head Fake
All Americans should worry about the president’s recent illegal land grab.
By Dan Sullivan, WSJ, Mar 22, 2015
http://www.wsj.com/articles/dan-sullivan-obamas-alaska-wilderness-head-fake-1427063920
[SUMMARY: “President Obama’s plan to designate 12 million acres as wilderness in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge did not fool Alaskans. The announcement in January revealed his goal of starving the trans-Alaska pipeline by stranding tens of billions of barrels of American oil permanently under the Arctic tundra, and turning the state into a giant national park.
“Given the huge importance the oil industry plays in employing Alaskans and funding state services, the president’s plan will wreak havoc on the state and especially its middle class. Gov. Bill Walker and nearly every member of the state legislature are united with the majority of Alaskans and Alaska Native leaders in opposition.
“Mr. Obama’s recent announcement to put the coastal plain of Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) into wilderness status was a similar but more devious ploy. Under the 1964 Wilderness Act only Congress can designate the ANWR coastal plain as wilderness, which would forever lock up this region for energy development. With potentially billions of barrels of oil under the plain, there is no chance that Congress would do so. Nevertheless, the White House has said that it will soon introduce ANWR wilderness legislation and meanwhile “manage” the ANWR plain as wilderness anyway.
“Sound familiar? This is the “Obama two step.” The president makes a head fake toward respecting the Constitution, then turns around and directs agency action that flouts the very law that he couldn’t get through Congress.”]
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Climategate Continued
Reductio ad mannium
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Mar 15, 2015
http://climateaudit.org/2015/03/25/reductio-ad-mannium/
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
What Is Intellectual Freedom?
By Staff Writers: American Library Association, Accessed March 27, 2015
http://www.ala.org/advocacy/intfreedom/censorshipfirstamendmentissues/ifcensorshipqanda
Scientists Object to Intellectual Freedom
By Donna Laframboise, NFC, Mar 27, 2015
http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2015/03/27/scientists-object-to-intellectual-freedom/
Link to letter: An Open Letter to Museums from Members of the Scientific Community
By “Members of the Scientific Community” “The Natural History Museum.org”, Mar 24, 2015
http://thenaturalhistorymuseum.org/open-letter-to-museums-from-scientists/
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry – The Witch Hunt
German Climate Witch-Hunting Under New Management…Wanted: “Explosive Material” On Climate Skeptics
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 21, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Climate Rescuers in need to rescue?]
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry – The Witch Hunt – Push-Back
Climate Science Doubts: Not Because of Payment, But Because the Science Is Bad
By Christopher Essex, Breitbart, Mar 25, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Excellent essay on issues arising from the witch-hunt.]
David Legates Makes Sense to Me (climate ‘contrarian’ on the firing line)
By Robert Bradley, Master Resource, Mar 26, 2015
https://www.masterresource.org/ad-hominem-against-skeptics/david-legates-firing-line/
Missing the mark on climate change skepticism
It’s not about the money, it’s about the science
By J. Scott Armstrong, Washington Times, Mar 24, 2105
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/mar/24/j-scott-armstrong-missing-the-mark-on-climate-chan/
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Atmospheric physicist Dr. Murry Salby: Man-made CO2 could only cause warming of ‘a few tenths of a degree, if at all’
By Staff Writer, The Hockey Schtick, Mar 24, 2015
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2015/03/a-recent-seminar-presentation-by.html
Link to presentation in German: New study on CO2 concentration: Anthropogenic share somewhere between 0 and a maximum of 30%
By Michael Limburg, EIKE, Mar 20, 2015
Climate sensitivity: lopping off the fat tail
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Mar 23, 2015
http://judithcurry.com/2015/03/23/climate-sensitivity-lopping-off-the-fat-tail/
Global warming consensus claim does not stand up (author’s cut)
By Richard Tol, His Blog, Mar 15, 2015 [H/t WUWT]
http://richardtol.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/now-almost-two-years-old-john-cooks-97.html
The 97% Cook Consensus – when will Environ Res Letters retract it?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 25, 2015
New Paper: Climate Consensus and ‘Misinformation’
By William Briggs, His Blog, Mar 21, 2015
http://wmbriggs.com/post/15576/
Relative Homogeneity of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and The Little Ice Age (LIA)
By Tim Ball, WUWT, Mar 22, 2015 [H/t Roger Carlquist]
[SEPP Comment: We cannot expect warming and cooling will be simultaneous throughout the world.]
Defending the Orthodoxy
Obama Advisor: Climate Change One of ‘Top Strategic Risks’ to U.S.
By Ali Meyer, CNS News, Mar 20, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Guardian Demonstrates That The 19 Year Pause Is Real
By Steven Goddard, Real Climate, Mar 27, 2015
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/03/27/guardian-announces-that-the-19-year-pause-is-real/
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Differences between Real Science and Man Made Global Warming Science
By Mike Herman, Australian Climate Sceptics, Mar 26, 2015
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/differences-between-real-science-and.html
Dramatic and Misleading Fear Tactics
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Mar 20, 2015
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2015/03/20/dramatic-and-misleading-fear-tactics/
How About Protecting Today’s Real People, And Not An Impossible Climate Of The Future?
By P Gosselin with comment by Frederick Colbourne, No Tricks Zone, Mar 24, 2015
Hypocrisy of Arctic biologists: fossil fuels for me but not for thee
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Mar 24, 2015
Ooops! Posited pine beetle to increased wildfire risk debunked by UC study
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 24, 2015
“These results refute the assumption that increased bark beetle activity has increased area burned,” wrote the researchers in PNAS. “Therefore, policy discussions should focus on societal adaptation to the effect of the underlying drivers: warmer temperatures and increased drought.”
[SEPP Comment: Of course, there is no credible evidence that increasing CO2 is causing warmer temperatures and increasing drought.]
Reporters Explain Why Balance Isn’t Needed On Global Warming
Elite journalists explain why they have no need for ‘balance’ on the global warming issue. So much for scientific and reportorial inquiry.
By Rachelle Peterson, The Federalist, Mar 24, 2015 [H/t Climate Etc.]
http://thefederalist.com/2015/03/24/reporters-explain-why-balance-isnt-needed-on-global-warming/
[SEPP Comment: Exposing those who believe they are morally superior?]
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Alarmism cools: Only 32 percent of Americans still worry about global warming, Gallup says
By Jennifer Harper – The Washington Times, Mar 25, 2015
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/mar/25/global-warming-climate-change-less-third-americans/
Global Warming: A Flop at the Box Office
By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Mar 22, 2015
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/03/global_warming_a_flop_at_the_box_office.html
The Campaign To Make You Care About Climate Change Is Failing Miserably
The number of Democrats who ‘worry greatly’ has increased by four percentage points in 25 years.
By David Harsanyi, The Federalist, Mar 26, 2015
Biggest polluters set to miss deadline for action on climate change
By Alex Nussbaum and Alex Morales, Bloomberg, Mar 15, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: Story leads with a typical propaganda photo of steam from chimneys blacking the sky under special lighting or using special lenses.]
India to Rich World: Give us Cash and We’ll Cut Emissions Faster
By Natalie Obiko,Pearson and Unni Krishnan, Bloomberg, Mar 26, 2015 [H/t Climate Etc.
“You have occupied the carbon space,” [Environmental Minister Prakash] Javadekar said. “Vacate it, we are coming.”
You Ought to Have a Look: Climate Sensitivity and Environmental Worries Are Trending Downward
By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger, CATO, Mar 27, 2015
Seeking a Common Ground
Report Shows Campus Sustainability Movement Restricts Debate, Harms College Finances
By Rachelle Peterson and Peter Wood, National Association of Scholars, Mar 25, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Link to report: Sustainability: Higher Education’s New Fundamentalism
By Peter Wood and Rachelle Peterson, National Association of Scholars, Mar 25, 2015
http://www.nas.org/articles/executive_summary_sustainability_higher_educations_new_fundamentalism
“While we take no position in the climate change debate, we focus in this study on how the sustainability movement has distorted higher education. We examine the harm it has done to college curricula and the limits it has imposed on the freedom of students to inquire and to make their own decisions. Our report also offers an anatomy of the campus sustainability movement in the United States. We explain how it came to prominence and how it is organized.”
[SEPP Comment: Ten practical recommendations under three categories: 1) Respect Intellectual Freedom; 2) Uphold Institutional Integrity; 3) Be Even Handed.
Peter Foster: Climate Change As A Moral Issue
By Peter Foster, Talk in House of Lords, Via GWPF, Mar 24, 2015
http://www.thegwpf.com/peter-foster-climate-change-as-a-moral-issue/
Polar bear visiting Hibernia oil platform off Newfoundland was not far from sea ice
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Mar 24, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Counters excited newspaper reports implying something unusual. Cites a prior NIPCC report showing nothing new here.]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa: Is It Driven by Climate Change?
O’Loughlin, J., Linke, A.M. and Witmer, F.D.W. 2014. Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on the risk of violence in sub-Saharan Africa, 1980-2012. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 111: 16,712-16,717. Mar 25, 2015
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V18/mar/a25.php
“the location and timing of violence are influenced less by climate anomalies than by key political, economic and geographic factors,” such that “overall, the temperature effect is statistically significant, but important inconsistencies in the relationship between temperature extremes and conflict are evident in more nuanced relationships than have been previously identified.”
The Effect of Ocean Acidification on the Growth Rates of Diatoms
Wu, Y., Campbell, D.A., Irwin, A.J., Suggett, D.J. and Finkel, Z.V. 2014. Ocean acidification enhances the growth rate of larger diatoms. Limnology and Oceanography 59: 1027-1034. Mar 25, 2015
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V18/mar/a24.php
[SEPP Comment: Diatoms are responsible for about 40% of all marine primary production and, according to experiments, grow faster under enhanced CO2.]
CMIP5 Modelling of Precipitation in Arid and Semiarid Regions
Zhao, T., Chen, L. and Ma, Z. 2014. Simulation of historical and projected climate change in arid and semiarid areas by CMIP5 models. Chinese Science Bulletin 59: 412-429. Mar 24, 2015
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V18/mar/a21.php
Measurement Issues
BoM forum been, gone. Rejoice! Invisible problems being solved behind closed doors
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 27, 2015
Taking Melbourne’s temperature
By Tom Quirke, Climate Etc. Mar 22, 2015
http://judithcurry.com/2015/03/22/taking-melbournes-temperature/#more-18167
Changing Weather
Insured losses from disasters below average in 2014 despite record number of natural catastrophe events, says Swiss Re sigma study
By Staff Writers, Swiss Re, Mar 25, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
“The Swiss Re Group is a leading wholesale provider of reinsurance, insurance and other insurance-based forms of risk transfer.”
Climate change does not cause extreme winters, new study shows
By Staff Writers, Phys.Org, Mar 27, 2015 [H/t Climate Etc.]
http://phys.org/news/2015-03-climate-extreme-winters.html
[SEPP Comment: Unless it is pronounced cooling.]
CO2 is not making storms worse near Japan either
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 23, 2015
http://joannenova.com.au/2015/03/co2-is-not-making-storms-worse-near-japan-either/#more-41663
Great Lakes Ice Cover Third Highest On Record
By Steven Goddard, Real Science, Mar 27, 2015
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/03/27/great-lakes-ice-cover-third-highest-on-record/
Changing Climate
Celebrate the warmth
By Viv Forbes, American Thinker, Mar 26, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2015/03/celebrate_the_warmth.html
Changing Seas
NASA Study Finds Atlantic ‘Conveyor Belt’ Not Slowing
By Alan Buis, NASA – JPL, Mar 25, 2015
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/atlantic20100325.html
What’s up with the Atlantic?
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Mar 25, 2015
http://judithcurry.com/2015/03/25/whats-up-with-the-atlantic/
Truth Sinks Into The Mud: How German N24 Public Television Grossly Misled Viewers On Sea Level
River delta in India and Bangladesh sinking away: N24 forgets to mention sediment compaction as an important reason for rising waters
By Sebastian Lüning, Fritz Vahrenholt, Translated by P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 23, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Another example of where land subsidence is more important for measured local level rise than global (eustatic) sea level rise.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Rapid Recovery In Arctic Sea Ice Volume Back To 2006 Levels
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 23, 2015
The Truth Behind The Totten Glacier
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 22, 2015
International study raises questions about cause of global ice ages
By Staff Writers, Hanover NH (SPX), Mar 26, 2015
Link to paper: Mismatch of glacier extent and summer insolation in Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes
By Doughty, et al, Geology, Mar 19, 2015
http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/early/2015/03/19/G36477.1.abstract
Past warming increased snowfall on Antarctica, affecting global sea level
By Staff Writers, Corvallis OR (SPX), Mar 20, 2015
Polar bear habitat update – even more ice this week in the Barents Sea
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Mar 26, 2015
Acidic Waters
Ocean Acidification Will not Kill Coral Reefs and Shellfish
By Patrick Moore, Frontier Center for Public Policy, Mar 24, 2015 [H/t Australian Climate Sceptics.]
https://fcpp.org/posts/ocean-acidification-will-not-kill-coral-reefs-and-shellfish
Ocean Acidification: Natural Cycles and Ubiquitous Uncertainties
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Mar 25, 2015
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Pesticides and health
By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Mar 27, 2015
http://scientific-alliance.org/node/921
[SEPP Comment: Is Roundup (glyphosate) the new DDT that causes cancer even though no evidence of cause is established?)
IARC’s ruling on glyphosate ignores the science
By Staff Writers, ACSH, Mar 23, 2015
http://acsh.org/2015/03/iarcs-ruling-on-glyphosate-ignores-the-science/
Cropping Africa’s wet savannas would bring high environmental costs
By Staff Writers, Princeton NJ (SPX), Mar 20, 2015
Un-Science or Non-Science?
One satellite data set is underestimating global warming
A new study suggests that the University of Alabama at Huntsville is lowballing the warming of the atmosphere
By John Abraham, Guardian, UK, Mar 25, 2015 [H/t Real Science]
Link to paper: Removing Diurnal Cycle Contamination in Satellite-Derived Tropospheric Temperatures: Understanding Tropical Tropospheric Trend Discrepancies
By Stephen Po-Chedley, Tyler J. Thorsen, and Qiang Fu, Journal of Climate, March 2015
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00767.1
Michael Mann and Stefan Rahmstorf claim the Gulf Stream is slowing due to Greenland ice melt, except reality says otherwise
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 24, 2015
Link to paper: Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation
By Stefan Rahmstorf, Jason E. Box, Georg Feulner, Michael E. Mann, Alexander Robinson, Scott Rutherford, & Erik J. Schaffernicht, Nature Climate Change, Mar 23, 2015
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2554.html
Summer storm weakening leads to more persistent heat extremes
By Staff Writers, Potsdam, Germany (SPX) ,Mar 20, 2015
Link to paper: The weakening summer circulation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes
By Caurnou, Lehmann, and Beckmann, Science, Mar 12, 2015
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2015/03/13/science.1261768
Lowering Standards
This is Your President’s Science Advisor
By Roy Spencer, Global Warming, Mar 21, 2015
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/03/this-is-your-presidents-science-advisor/
No false balance at the BBC
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Mar 27, 2015
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/3/27/no-false-balance-at-the-bbc.html
[SEPP Comment: Now Penn State U. has experts on gender and climate change. What a comprehensive University!]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
As lakes become deserts, drought is Iran’s new problem
By Cyril Julien, Zabol, Iran (AFP), March 21, 2015
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/As_lakes_become_deserts_drought_is_Irans_new_problem_999.html
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Jones and Dixon Refute Conspiracy Theorist Lewandowsky
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Mar 27, 2015
http://climateaudit.org/2015/03/27/jones-and-dixon-refute-conspiracy-theorist-lewandowsky/
[SEPP Comment: One of many theories that became popular without real evidence.]
Atlantic circulation weaker than in last thousand years
By John Upton, Sun Herald.com, Biloxi-Gulfport, Mar 24, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://www.sunherald.com/2015/03/24/6140176_atlantic-circulation-weaker-than.html?rh=1
Implausibly Deniable Propaganda At NSIDC
By Steven Goddard, Real Science, Mar 27, 2015
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/03/27/implausibly-deniable-propaganda-at-nsidc/
[SEPP Comment: There is a discrepancy between the premature announcement maximum extent of Arctic ice by the NASA funded National Snow and Ice Data Center and the continued tracking by the Danish Meteorological Institute. The discrepancy is increasing.]
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
Laughable AGU Claim: 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami ‘spurred global warming’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 26, 2015
No wonder they call him ‘moonbeam’ – California Governor Jerry Brown claims Global Warming causes extreme cold
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 23, 2015
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
In U.S., Worries About Terrorism, Race Relations Up Sharply
By Justin McCarthy, Gallup, Poll taken March 5-8 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.gallup.com/poll/182018/worries-terrorism-race-relations-sharply.aspx
[SEPP Comment: Of the 15 categories, Climate Change ranks last.]
One quarter of the US are now implacable skeptics of “climate change” fears
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 26, 2015
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Biology Teacher Sends Letter To Ernst Klett Verlag Concerning ‘Manipulative And Unserious’ German School Textbooks
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 22, 2015
Expanding the Orthodoxy
“Sustainability”: an Agenda That Threatens Private Medicine, according to the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons
By Staff Writers, PR Newswire, Mar 9, 2015
Sustainability: Higher Education’s New Fundamentalism
By William Briggs, His Blog, Mar 26, 2015
http://wmbriggs.com/post/15605/
Peter Wood is also President of the NAS and was master of ceremonies. Woods forte is the joke most subtle. He said the fight against rising ocean levels was foreseen by Hamlet (“…to take arms against a sea of troubles…”).
Questioning European Green
Bloodbath! Four Of Germany’s Top 12 “Capital Destroyers” Of 2014 Are Solar Tech Companies…Solarworld No.1!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 26, 2015
Green taxes double under Coalition
Green levies to reach £4.6 billion this year
By Matthew Holehouse, The Telegraph, UK, Mar 26, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/energy/11496018/Green-taxes-double-under-Coalition.html
Funding Issues
Head Of African Development Bank Attacks Hypocritical Westerners
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 24, 2015
[SEPP Comment: By promoting the banning of DDT, actions by Western NGO’s and governments contributed to the preventable deaths of millions in Africa from malaria. Why should African nations do their bidding now?]
Switzerland, Luxembourg plan to join China-led development bank
By Staff Writers, Shanghai (AFP), March 21, 2015
According to US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew Washington’s main concern was whether the bank would “adhere to the kind of high standards that the international financial institutions have developed”.
[SEPP Comment: High standards from Washington include no funding for needed and viable coal-fired power plants.]
Japan Uses Climate Cash for Coal Plants in India, Bangladesh
By Karl Ritter and Aijaz Rahi, AP, Mar 25, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
The Political Games Continue
Climate Change or Debt? SecDef Reluctant to Name Biggest Threat to U.S. Security
By Susan Jones, CNS News, Mar 19, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Ted Cruz says satellite data show the globe isn’t warming. This satellite scientist feels otherwise
By Chris Mooney, Washington Post, Mar 24, 2015
[SEPP Comment: NOAA and NASA claims of “2014 hottest year ever” are highly questionable. Using the data supplied by Carl Mears at the Remote Sensing Systems, there has been no warming for 18 years. Mears labels who state this as “denialists.”]
Litigation Issues
Harvard Law professors fight over EPA’s climate rule
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Mar 23, 2015
[SEPP Comment: To some Harvard Law Professors, EPA giving states the choice of which industries to cripple or destroy is giving them flexibility.]
Constitutional scholar Laurence Tribe sells his soul to Big Coal, makes terrible arguments
By David Roberts, Grist, Mar 20, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Now that his soul is black as coal, are liberals giving Tribe the coal shoulder?]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
DOE Wind Fantasies (same assumptions, same results)
By Lisa Linowes, Master Resource, Mar 24, 2015
https://www.masterresource.org/department-of-energymoniz/doe-wind-fantasies/
[SEPP Comment: FY 2013 Subsidy and Support: Coal $ 0.57 per mwh; Natural gas, $0.60 per mwh; Nuclear $2.10 per mwh; and Wind $35.33 per mwh. The most unreliable form of electrical generation receives the most subsides, by far!]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA Administrator Insults Property Owners in Pushing New Water Rule
By Daren Bakst, Daily Signal, Mar 19, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
FEMA Tells Oklahoma to Do the Impossible … Or Else
By Patrick J. Michaels, CATO, Mar 27, 2015
http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/fema-tells-oklahoma-do-impossible-or-else
New environmental rules would punish local economies
Editorial, Washington Examiner, Mar 17, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Energy Issues – Non-US
Fossil fuels are not finished, not obsolete, not a bad thing
Their energy makes the difference between misery and prosperity
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Mar 22, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Full essay briefly presented in last week’s TWTW.]
Why Bombing This Tiny Oil Producer Is Roiling the Energy Market
By Sharon Cho and Ben Sharples, Bloomberg, Mar 26, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Crude oil prices are surging as Yemen descends into chaos
By Mike Bird, Business Insider, Mar 26, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
http://uk.businessinsider.com/crude-oil-prices-are-surging-as-yemen-descends-into-chaos-2015-3
World Oil Transit Chokepoints
By Staff Writers, EIA, Nov 10, 2014
http://www.eia.gov/countries/regions-topics.cfm?fips=wotc&trk=p3
Earth Hour: Turn On the Lights, Celebrate Electricity
By Bjorn Lomborg, Copenhagen Consensus, Mar 27, 2015
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/earth-hour-turn-lights-celebrate-electricity-bjorn-lomborg
The Quest for Storing Electricity
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Mar 17, 2015
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2015/03/17/the-quest-for-storing-electricity/
Fracking costs outweigh benefits for Germany and Europe, study says
By Nicole Sagener, Euractiv, Mar 20, 2015 [H/t Anne and Lars Debeil]
“We should not compare the conditions in Germany with those in the United States,” said Werner Zittel, the author of the study released by the NGO Energy Watch Group.
[SEPP Comment: Not impressed by the lack of geological information in the study. Statements include: “Turning the areas used into industrial landscapes, maintaining streets as well as storage and transport of the special sand required for fracking, are some of the investments the country would have to make.” These complaints in a country installing industrial wind power that has a far more pronounced footprint! The economics is way off! “World is badly prepared for growing shortage of fossil fuel-based energy.”]
“Grid Overload” Blacks Out Northern Holland! Reports ‘Der Spiegel’ And Dutch Daily ‘AD’
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 27, 2015
Huge Natural Gas Hydrate Reserves In Cold Storage — For Now
By Carolyn Davis, NG Daily, Mar 20, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: Extensive reserves in gas hydrates, extraction is a major issue.]
Washington’s Control of Energy
New fracking rules draw industry lawsuit, congressional ire
By Jennifer A. Dlouhy, San Antonio Express-News, Via GWPF, Mar 21, 2015
http://www.thegwpf.com/obamas-green-regulations-trigger-u-s-shale-war/
Obama administration issues fracking regulations for federal land
By Staff Writer, ACSH, Mar 14, 2015
http://acsh.org/2015/03/obama-administration-issues-fracking-regulations-for-federal-land/
Link to: Hydraulic Fracturing in the Marcellus Shale: water and health, facts vs fiction
http://acsh.org/2014/06/hydraulic-fracturing-marcellus-shale-water-health-facts-vs-fiction/
Link to: Fracking and Health: facts vs. fiction
By Dr Theodore Them, Chief of the Section of Occupational and Environmental Medicine with Guthrie Medical Group in Sayre, Pennsylvania, ACSH, Jun 12, 2014
http://acsh.org/2014/06/fracking-health-facts-vs-fiction/
Greens: Obama caved on fracking
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Mar 24, 2015
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/236700-environmentalists-obama-caved-on-fracking
[SEPP Comment: Greens had hoped to use intense federal regulations to force states to adopt similar regulations with the goal of stopping fracking.]
If It Works, Kill It
By Jeffrey Folks, American Thinker, Mar 25, 2015
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/03/if_it_works_kill_it.html
Obama Administration’s New Fracking Rules Hurt The Poor
Editorial, IBD, Mar 23, 2015
Link to study: Welfare and distributional implications of shale gas
By Catherine Hausman and Ryan Kellogg, Brookings, Mar 19, 2015
What’s Wrong with Obama’s Energy, Emissions Executive Order
By Katie Tubb, Daily Signal, Mar 20, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://dailysignal.com/2015/03/20/whats-wrong-with-obamas-energy-emissions-executive-order/
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Hundreds of Frac Restrictions Quietly Sweep Across America
By Santiago Bello, NCPA, Mar 18, 2015
http://environmentblog.ncpa.org/hundreds-of-frac-restrictions-quietly-sweep-across-america/
Return of King Coal?
Industry in Turmoil: Coal Plants Shutting Down Around the World
By Aaron Larson, Power Mag, Mar 24, 2015
http://www.powermag.com/industry-in-turmoil-coal-plants-shutting-down-around-the-world/
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Fukushima reactor test offers detailed look inside
By Shingo ITO, Tokyo (AFP), March 20, 2015
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Fukushima_reactor_test_offers_detailed_look_inside_999.html
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Can Wind and Solar be Useful?
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Mar 24, 2015
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2015/03/24/can-wind-and-solar-be-useful/
[SEPP Comment: In certain circumstances.]
Solar: Government, Business Waste (four GA case studies)
By James Rust, Master Resource, Mar 23, 2015
https://www.masterresource.org/solar-power-issues/government-business-waste-with-solar/
White House Claims About Wind Power Are Implausible and Dangerous
By Julian Morris, Reason Foundation, Mar 18, 2015
Link to DOE report: Wind Vision: A New Ear for Wind Power in the United States
By Staff Writers, DOE, No date (2015?)
http://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/WindVision_Report_final.pdf
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Government Agencies Continue Partnership to Advance Hydropower Technology
By Aaron Larson, Power Mag, Mar 250, 2015
http://www.powermag.com/government-agencies-continue-partnership-to-advance-hydropower-technology/
[SEPP Comment: Where in the country is advance hydropower being built?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Electric Cars Leave Behind A Cloud Of Carbon Dioxide
By Kerry Jackson, IBD, Mar 25, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Is Tesla Gigafactory a Bad Investment?
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Mar 27, 2015
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2015/03/27/is-tesla-gigafactory-a-bad-investment/
Environmental Industry
Pareto Speaks to Us About Environmentalism
By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Mar 27, 2015
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/03/pareto_speaks_to_us_about_environmentalism.html
Radical Environmentalism’s Death Campaigns
By Paul Driessen, Townhall, Mar 21, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
The green blob and its double standards
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Mar 26, 2015
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/3/26/the-green-blob-and-its-double-standards.html
Other Scientific News
Albert Einstein, in his own words
By Rob Margetta, NSF, Mar 22, 2015
http://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?cntn_id=134537&WT.mc_id=USNSF_51&WT.mc_ev=click
Big Bang theory could be debunked by Large Hadron Collider
Scientists at Cern could prove the controversial theory of ‘rainbow gravity’ which suggests that the universe stretches back into time infinitely, with no Big Bang
By Sarah Knapton, Science Editor, The Telegraph, UK, Mar 23, 2015
Submarine discharges adds as much nutrients as rivers to the sea
By Staff Writers, Barcelona, Spain (SPX), Mar 23, 2015
Other News that May Be of Interest
NASA Running Out of Nuclear Fuel For Batteries
By Staff Writers, Moscow (Sputnik), Mar 23, 2015
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/NASA_Running_Out_of_Nuclear_Fuel_For_Batteries_999.html
Pesticides not the sole culprit in honey bee colony declines
By Staff Writers, College Park MD (SPX), Mar 23, 2015
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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Radiation, climate force Bikini Islanders to seek US refuge
By Staff Writers, Majuro (AFP) Marshall Islands (AFP), March 22, 2015
Your Allergies Getting Worse? Blame Your Car
By Katharine Gammon, Takepart.com, Mar 25, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://news.yahoo.com/allergies-getting-worse-blame-car-172332350.html
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“McIntire” … McIntyre
The Social Costs Of Capitalism Are Destroying Earth’s Ability To Support Life — Paul Craig Roberts
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/03/27/social-costs-capitalism-destroying-earths-ability-support-life-paul-craig-roberts/
Pretty powerful, I really appreciate and support these seasoned professional writers and researchers. Many of us have asked questions, so he surprised us.
Also, I cannot wait to see this new film about Martin Armstrong. This dude is just interesting.
http://www.laweekly.com/movies/the-forecaster-5448821
The story of espionage and duplicity that financial adviser Martin Armstrong relates in Marcus Vetter’s documentary The Forecaster is as serpentine and fascinating as a John le Carré novel. Its narrative thread convincingly weaves multiple financial collapses, the ouster of Boris Yeltsin and the rise of the Putin oligarchy around Armstrong’s life’s work — a mathematical model that predicts market peaks and collapses and, allegedly, the wars that accompany both.
Martin’s Economic Confidence Model tracks 26 market panics over 224 years, applies some arithmetic and extrudes a market cycle based on pi. Apparently! His published work from the 1980s to the present is uncanny in its accurate predictions of the market crash of 1987, the Soviet collapse, the first Gulf War and the housing collapse of 2007.
Director Vetter’s film, which includes Armstrong’s preposterous 11-year incarceration on contempt charges for refusing to turn over his source code, includes a lot of Ken Burns–style pans across scary-looking graphs of money apocalypses past and future, as well as interviews with Armstrong’s many supporters, all set to a pensive soundtrack of ominous tones.
With his interpretation of global events, Armstrong tells one hell of a good story. Is any of it true? All of it, including his computer model, is built on the tectonically immovable bedrock of human corruption, so it’s certainly plausible. Spoiler: The world economy is going to experience a “sovereign-debt big bang” sometime in October 2015, according to Armstrong’s model, so this will provide another validating data point if it happens.
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2009/10/12/the-secret-cycle
Oh here’s the trailer and his blog.
http://youtu.be/byGEOiBz1RM
http://armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_economics_blog/
isn’t upside down text a bit old ?
[snip off-topic -mod]
“Why Is Intellectual Freedom Important?”
A decent question that we should all consider in those times when we meditate on the way things are. Knowledge and brainpower is what separates us from our close relative the Bonobo (Pan paniscus). For our species to survive and to prosper we need to be able to seek and share the truth. Often advancements come from those the majority or those in power wrongly perceive as kooks or lunatics. Great breakthroughs come from those outside the “consensus”. We must fight those we think are wrong in the realm of ideas and debate and not by force, violence, censorship, intimidation, or ad hominem.
Any site that censors comments based on the scientific position of the writer is diminishing human progress — even if only by a tiny bit. Any group or organization that shouts down or otherwise uses emotion or rhetoric to “win” over an opponent rather than use reason also retards human progress.
Intellectual freedom is a topic that we should keep in mind as we debate climate issues. (any important issues for that matter)
~ Mark
@ up side down,
WOW? “Martin’s Economic Confidence Model tracks 26 market panics over 224 years”, (your words)
Was there a New York stock exchange 226 years ago ? They had a hard time starting “Earth Day” with candles in those days, let alone a stock exchange But am I to close to April Fools here?
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/stock-exchange-history.asp
Venetian slates, to the British coffeehouses
In the 1300s, the Venetians were the leaders in the field and the first to start trading the securities from other governments.
Belgium boasted a stock exchange as far back as 1531, in Antwerp.
All Those East India Companies
In the 1600s, the Dutch, British, and French governments all gave charters to companies with East India in their names.
The New York Stock Exchange
The first stock exchange in London was officially formed in 1773, a scant 19 years before the New York Stock Exchange.
“Scientists at Cern could prove the controversial theory of ‘rainbow gravity’ which suggests that the universe stretches back into time infinitely, with no Big Bang”
Good luck. I hope they find the mini black holes. I find rainbow gravity to be sensible. The current theory on black hole and Big Bang is more controversial and paradoxical.
it is difficult to visualize.
if there is no big bang then there must be something wrong with the perceived expansion ?
What we call “big bang” is the after-effect of the Big Bang. Nobody was there to witness the real thing. The controversial issue is the hypothesized singularity. It is predicted by general relativity but inconsistent with quantum mechanics as the laws of physics break down in a singularity.
The implicit assumption in a singularity is spacetime is continuous down to infinite smallness. Why should spacetime be continuous? Everything else in the universe is discrete. Matter, energy, electric charge, strong and weak nuclear forces. They are all discrete. Rainbow gravity proposes that spacetime is also discrete down to the Planck length and time. This resolves the paradoxes and makes general relativity compatible with quantum mechanics. I find it sensible.
“” The letter asserts that “Mr. Koch also funds a large network of climate-change-denying organizations, spending over $67 million since 1997 to fund groups denying climate change science.””
That’s the common alarmist mendacity of implying that “groups denying climate change science” do nothing but that, instead of devoting only about 10% of their efforts to that field, which is what’s actually the case. Amazingly brazen and shameless, after the deception has been exposed many times by our side. I guess it still makes a big impression on their flock, so that’s why they stick with it.
The logic is that we can assume that, because we don’t know exactly what will happen, we can assume that anything might happen.
My favourite Statistics text is “Probability and It’s Engineering Uses” by Fry. In it the author demonstrates the following misuse of statistics: (bear in mind that he was writing in the 1920s)
Using fat tails as an excuse to believe that CAGW might happen, is truly crap. (Messrs. Monckton and Briggs could probably supply a more erudite description.)
That’s basically the methodology of the Drake Equation.
My nominees?
Baruq and John F’n Kerry of course. Again.
–Bad News
The American Library Association does not fight censorship — it fights simply for the right of LIBRARIANS to decide what does or does not appear in libraries. It is a self-serving pressure group that hides is self-empowering agenda behind the fake flag of preventing censorship.
School Boards, and specifically parents, are the ones that should decide what books appear in what sections of school libraries, and whether or not certain books should appear at all.
The Public, local citizens, should decide what books and materials appear in what sections of public libraries and to whom the materials should be made available.
Librarians, specifically the American Library Assoc. deny these rights and insist that only they — “The Librarians” — have the right to decide.
99% of so-called “acts of attempted censorship” occurring within the realm of school libraries or the children’s section of public libraries and involve citizens raising objections to books they feel have been improperly included in various age-group collections.
Contrary to the stand of the ALA — this is what parents are supposed to be doing — taking an active role in the education of their children and preventing exposure to harmful materials.
“Why Is Intellectual Freedom Important?”
========================
Off topic, snip, snip! Sorry!
Apparently it’s not. We have to swill the kool aid instead.
Mother nature, combined with crazy weather, strikes at Elgin, Oregon. So what will we experience? Who the hell knows. Apparently, there is a slight chance of…..everything.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Elgin&state=OR&site=PDT&textField1=45.565&textField2=-117.916&e=0#.VRn6jOl0yM9