Eric Worrall writes: The Guardian has published an unusually interesting article about the danger to our civilisation, of a new Tambora scale volcanic eruption.
![Tambora_volc[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/03/tambora_volc1.jpg?quality=83)
According to Bill McGuire, professor emeritus of geophysical and climate hazards at UCL;
“In April 1815, the biggest known eruption of the historical period blew apart the Tambora volcano, on the Indonesian island of Sumbawa, 12,000km from the UK. What happened next testifies to the enormous reach of the biggest volcanic blasts.
The Tambora volcano had shown no signs of life for 1,000 years; a single eruption in the previous five millennia provided the only indication that magma was still churning far beneath. It is very likely that the residents of the island considered the volcano extinct, and possible even that they did not know the impressive 4,300m (14,107ft) mountain – at the time, probably the highest in the East Indies – was a volcano at all. This all changed, however, with the rumblings and earthquakes of 1812, a full three years before the climactic blast. Over time, the seismic shocks were superseded by steam blasts and small ash explosions, engendering increasing trepidation on the island and signalling that something bigger might be imminent. It was. On 5 April 1815, a titanic explosion hurled a cloud of ash to a height of more than 30km.”
…
The consequences for the developed societies of the northern hemisphere were dire. A dry, sulphurous, fog draped itself across the landscape of eastern North America, causing temperatures to plunge and bringing unprecedented summer cold. In New York State, snow fell in June, while the bitter cold and killing frosts wiped out crops and halved the length of the growing season across much of the region. On the other side of the Atlantic, Europe saw summer temperatures down by 2C compared to the average for the decade; the unseasonal cold accompanied by incessant rains and – into the following winter – by unusually powerful storms. Analysis of climate records reveals that 1816, the so-called “year without a summer”, was the second coldest in the northern hemisphere of the past six centuries.”
McGuire adds a minor obligatory genuflection towards climate change, this is after all The Guardian – but unusually for a Guardian story about the environment, the focus of the article is not on the alleged dangers of our industrial output of CO2. And what McGuire says is entirely pertinent – a Tambora style eruption could kill millions of people from starvation, as massive crop failures caused food prices to skyrocket. And Tambora is not the worst which could happen – The Toba eruption, which occurred 74,000 years ago, blackened the sky, causing massive die backs across the world – and may even have almost ended the human race. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory#Genetic_bottleneck_theory
McGuire then goes on to list a few of the world’s most dangerous volcanoes – though interestingly the Indonesian volcano Merapi, an unstable giant slumbering adjacent to a city of 3 million people, doesn’t make his list. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Merapi
These colossal global catastrophes of the past, and the certainty that similar catastrophes will occur again in the future, maybe even in our lifetime, really puts the feeble temperature wobbles which are ascribed to humans into perspective.
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Even the Grudgian can present ernest natural science,- there may still be some hope, then…?
Yes, THERE IS HOPE, as Boeing just patented the plasma shield that can repel the muons that stimulate magma (Ebisuzaki et al 2011): http://www.engadget.com/2015/03/23/boeing-plasma-shield/
The Washington Post asks for a man-made PLASMA SHIELD too, so the critical number to decide is rising! http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/innovations/wp/2014/07/31/extreme-solar-storms-spark-a-need-for-innovation/
I doubt it.
Guardian’s note: Bill McGuire is professor emeritus of geophysical and climate hazards at UCL. His latest book is Waking the Giant: how a Changing Climate Triggers Earthquakes, Tsunamis and Volcanoes, £11.99.) Guardian sells the book with £2.40 discount!
No, Changing climate does not trigger earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanoes.
If anything, it is the other way around.
How can a professor of science produce such unscientific suggestions? There’s no way a hypothesised 2C temperature change in the atmosphere can trigger a volcanic eruption or an earthquake. But then may people believe in astrology and Al Gore’s prophecies.
It is on the book cover
http://d935jy3y59lth.cloudfront.net/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/363x/040ec09b1e35df139433887a97daa66f/media2/a20a0a17bdc010370ca6bbe23622fa1e.jpg
No reasonable person with basic knowledge of geophysics would accept such hypothesis.
It’s like these people use reverse, compounded Occam’s Razor.
Bill McGuire wrote the book
Seven Years to Save the Planet: published October 7, 2008.
Things are not working to the schedule, but he still has just over 4 months to save the planet.
Thank you… Indeed a perfect Grauniad writer…
Bill McGuire. The go to renta-academic geological disaster commentator. Pops up in many doco’s such as Karakatau doom, Yellowstone doom, Tsunami doom. etc etc.
I saw him once years ago in Telok Betung at the bottom of Sumatera dawdling around with his little bag and camera crew in tow looking for opportune selfie spots. Meanwhile real Vulcanologists such as Mike Rampino were out with the Indonesia Volcano Institute (V.S.I.) staff doing meaningful studies into Krakatau..
Some interesting book reviews: 🙂
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Seven-Years-Save-The-Planet/dp/0297853368
You are so right. However, it is amazing how uninformed some people (who should know better) appear to be. I strongly believe this is for some hidden agendas, like money to be made through solar panels or wind turbines. Why would they want to deliberately mislead people? It makes one wonder how much governments and agencies deliberately mislead people too?
It’s simply policy based “science” to promote socialism nationally and globally. Or as they call it Progressive Elightened Liberalism?
Answer to the title’s question: No we aren’t. Much of it due to the fact that almost all cities in the world gone from using tree to hold warm inside flats when cold to different types of heating systems needing energy from sun and wind…. we will have an energy crise within a year or two.
Very large Volcanic eruptions tend to have an effect for a season or two according to the amount of sun cloaking dust it erupts and its location.
Tambora occurred in the middle of an exceptionally cold period that had started around 1807 and became the formative impression for the works of Charles Dickens novels such as ‘A Christmas Carol.’ Temperatures returned to ‘normal’ the year after the eruption.
In CET 1816 was not as cold overall as 1814.
Here is the record for CET with blue indicating the coldest years. Volcanoes are often blamed for climate change as with Dr Mann and the mid 13th century eruption. However, contemporary accounts often show the cold spell had already commenced prior to the eruption.
Let’s not minimise the short term effect however on an interconnected modern world. Excessive cold would put great strain on our power generation and crop growing amongst other factors. Whether that effect would be worse than in past eras where people tended to be more self sufficient would be an interesting and worthwhile paper.
tonyb
Not as cold in England anyway. FWIW, the last Frost Fair on the frozen Thames was held in 1814 — two years before Tambora. And the Thames apparently has not frozen completely in London since 1814. The entire decade was cold in the Northern Hemisphere and it’s hard to believe that Tambora didn’t make things worse. However, my sense is that the effects of Tambora are substantially overstated. It is well to keep in mind that farming in Northern New England and Canada’s St Lawrence Valley is an iffy proposition even today and that in the 19th century, land was cleared and farmed at higher (colder) elevations than today. In fact, the late 1810s purportedly saw a lot of farmers give up on trying to eeck out a living in Vermont and head West.
ISTR that Willis wrote an article on the Year Without a Summer, but Google isn’t getting me to it. And in any case, Willis used the data he had available from New Haven. Unfortunately, New Haven is pretty far South and is near the Gulf Stream warmed Atlantic. It’s not clear that cold Summer irmasses affecting Vermont and New Hampshire would necessarily reach New Haven without major modification or indeed at all.
Krakatoa — about a third the size of Tambora — in 1883 resulted in a few degrees cooling in the Northern Hemisphere, but nothing like the effects attributed to Tambora which I personally think are probably cherry picked/overstated.
As far as the larger question. Is the world prepared for a large volcanic event. No, not really. But yes, it’ll survive and some (albeit probably inadequate) assistance will find its way to those affected. Some of it in a timely manner.
However, contemporary accounts often show the cold spell had already commenced prior to the eruption.
============
Willis had an article on volcanoes showing the temps start to drop before the eruption.
My piece was called Missing the Missing Summer.
w.
Dickens was born in 1812.
He published A Christmas Carol in 1843
Good comments by all – especially that 1814 (pre-Tambora) was very slightly cooler than 1816 (post Tambora).
So back to my main concern, (my 2002 prediction of) imminent global cooling.
Hope to be wrong, but I’ve been correct about all my predictions to date.
In science, perhaps the only objective measure of one’s competence is one’s predictive track record.
Note that the predictive track record of the global warming alarmists (aka warmists) and the IPCC is 100% incorrect –they have no scientific credibility, imo).
Question: Do we still store significant quantities of grain?
Regards, Allan
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/11/quantifying-the-solar-cycle-24-temperature-decline/#more-56382
I predicted global cooling in a 2002 article, excerpted below – see the last sentence. Timing was based on my (then) ~17 years of research, the Gleissberg Cycle and a phone conversation with paleoclimatologist Tim Patterson. If the PDO cycle is a better timing indicator, then cooling could happen sooner.
I do not know if cooling will be moderate or severe, but i believe there is a ~40% probability of severe cooling, sufficient to harm the grain harvest.
I am a professional engineer, and we, as a profession, really hate to be wrong. When we are seriously wrong, bad thing happen to good people, When I write a prediction in an article, it is because I believe it has a high probability of being correct (imnsho). I don’t do this for money, and I don’t do it for fun.
“It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future”
( attributed to many )
Prediction is also hard on the ego, when one is wrong. That is why so many people are reluctant to do it.
Regards, Allan
Excerpt:
Kyoto Hot Air Can’t Replace Fossil Fuels
Allan M.R. MacRae
Calgary Herald
September 1, 2002
If solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.
Somehow Tambora was linked with a huge amount of ice flushing from the arctic ocean into the Atlantic, resulting in an Arctic Sea with so little ice that, had “Death Spiral” fanatics been alive back then, they would have been going wild. However the the North Atlantic was chilled by such a flood of icebergs that Europe was much colder. We discussed it a little here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/08/1815-1816-and-1817-a-polar-puzzle/
The fact of the matter is that we are just starting to understand the actions and reactions between the sun, atmosphere and seas, even during quiet times. A huge eruption gives all the cycles a jolt, and would utterly screw up carefully crafted models. (Of course it doesn’t help matters that fabulous amounts of time and money are wasted on funding what amounts to balderdash, and messing about with public records with “adjustments.”)
Caleb said:
“(Of course it doesn’t help matters that fabulous amounts of time and money are wasted on funding what amounts to balderdash, and messing about with public records with “adjustments.”)”
Agreed Caleb. The climate models are nonsense. Their proponents justified ridiculously high climate sensitivities to CO2 by fabricating aerosol data to force their models to hindcast the global cooling from ~1940-1975. Then they were able to predict dire false consequences due to severe global warming.
I suggest that these warming alarmists knew exactly what they were doing. This was a scam from Day 1. Why do I believe this was not innocent error? Because nobody in their positions is that stupid.
Regards, Allan
Below is some correspondence with DV Hoyt from 2006 that is worthwhile, imo:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/12/blue-sky-research-reveals-trends-in-air-pollution-clears-way-for-new-climate-change-studies/#comments
Allan M R MacRae (17:53:04) :
Please see Douglas Hoyt’s post below. He is the same D.V. Hoyt who authored/co-authored the four papers referenced below.
Please note there is historic data available that could be of considerable use.
BUT: “There is no funding to do complete checks.”
Anyone want to take on this challenge?
Suggest tapping into the millions that Obama has allocated for climate modelling to get these modelers some real data on aerosols.
I understand they’ve been inventing aerosol data to get their models to history-match the cooling period from ~1945-1975. Hoyt says so such evidence exists in his data.
Regards, Allan
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=755
Douglas Hoyt:
July 22nd, 2006 at 5:37 am
Measurements of aerosols did not begin in the 1970s. There were measurements before then, but not so well organized. However, there were a number of pyrheliometric measurements made and it is possible to extract aerosol information from them by the method described in:
Hoyt, D. V., 1979. The apparent atmospheric transmission using the pyrheliometric ratioing techniques. Appl. Optics, 18, 2530-2531.
The pyrheliometric ratioing technique is very insensitive to any changes in calibration of the instruments and very sensitive to aerosol changes.
Here are three papers using the technique:
Hoyt, D. V. and C. Frohlich, 1983. Atmospheric transmission at Davos, Switzerland, 1909-1979. Climatic Change, 5, 61-72.
Hoyt, D. V., C. P. Turner, and R. D. Evans, 1980. Trends in atmospheric transmission at three locations in the United States from 1940 to 1977. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 1430-1439.
Hoyt, D. V., 1979. Pyrheliometric and circumsolar sky radiation measurements by the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory from 1923 to 1954. Tellus, 31, 217-229.
In none of these studies were any long-term trends found in aerosols, although volcanic events show up quite clearly. There are other studies from Belgium, Ireland, and Hawaii that reach the same conclusions. It is significant that Davos shows no trend whereas the IPCC models show it in the area where the greatest changes in aerosols were occurring.
There are earlier aerosol studies by Hand and in other in Monthly Weather Review going back to the 1880s and these studies also show no trends.
So when MacRae (#321) says: “I suspect that both the climate computer models and the input assumptions are not only inadequate, but in some cases key data is completely fabricated – for example, the alleged aerosol data that forces models to show cooling from ~1940 to ~1975. Isn’t it true that there was little or no quality aerosol data collected during 1940-1975, and the modelers simply invented data to force their models to history-match; then they claimed that their models actually reproduced past climate change quite well; and then they claimed they could therefore understand climate systems well enough to confidently predict future catastrophic warming?”, he close to the truth.
_____________________________________________________________________
Douglas Hoyt:
July 22nd, 2006 at 10:37 am
Re #328
“Are you the same D.V. Hoyt who wrote the three referenced papers?” Yes.
“Can you please briefly describe the pyrheliometric technique, and how the historic data samples are obtained?”
The technique uses pyrheliometers to look at the sun on clear days. Measurements are made at air mass 5, 4, 3, and 2. The ratios 4/5, 3/4, and 2/3 are found and averaged. The number gives a relative measure of atmospheric transmission and is insensitive to water vapor amount, ozone, solar extraterrestrial irradiance changes, etc. It is also insensitive to any changes in the calibration of the instruments. The ratioing minimizes the spurious responses leaving only the responses to aerosols.
I have data for about 30 locations worldwide going back to the turn of the century.
Preliminary analysis shows no trend anywhere, except maybe Japan.
There is no funding to do complete checks.
I think tonyb, people are confused and governments wondering what would happen if temperatures dropped dramatically. Solar and wind would not be good enough, look at poor Venuatu. Cyclone knocked down (no mean feat either) all their wind turbines. But some monster volcanic eruptions like Thera are so large they can cool the planet for up to 7 years and cause famines. In certain areas. Plus our orbit. Australia has several hot spots you know, last one erupted only 5 000 years ago, remember in Aboriginal dreamtime.
Tonyb
I agree with you – and with Willis’ article – that the climate/weather effects of volcanos are exaggerated. This is linked to an obsessive and blinkered atmosphere-centric view of climate which ignores the oceans. This approach focuses on atmosphere radiation balance and nothing else. It is wrong; the weather comes from the atmosphere, climate is from the ocean.
Before big volcanic eruptions, several smaller precede (not well recorded), rising clouding-cooling. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_large_volcanic_eruptions_of_the_20th_century
typo corrected:
I understand they’ve been inventing aerosol data to get their models to history-match the cooling period from ~1945-1975. Hoyt says NO such evidence exists in his data.
So it is the climate (cold onset) that causes volcanic eruptions. So in the next 20 years or so of cooling…….
No the other way round. Those who haven’t a slightest idea of what Techtonical plates is and why volcanic eruptions occurs, they have better go to nearest University Liberary look in Geologic dept.
Norah,
I think BFL omitted the /Sarc tag.
BFL – if my error, apologies, just I could have written that – and, yeah, for sure the /Sarc tag would be needed . . . . .
Auto
Before the end of the last ice age say around 10,000 years, the islands of Japan had no permanent settlement, it was highly tectonic, seismic and volcanic. More than it is today. Maybe gravity has something to do with it too.
Can you explain that more clearly. Possibly they don’t believe sun and wind are the answer.
In fact if we are not 100% dependent on these sources of energy then our stations can not just switch up and off when required and it can cause outages.
We should stock up on all the latent heat we can get.
It baffles me why some groups don’t want a warm green planet.
Because they’re all about power and creating an Orwellian Hunger games world government whereby their old money offspring can revel in luxury while the rest of the serfs do what they’re told in a tight control grid.
It’s nothing to do with preventing any supposed climate catastrophe.
I believe it’s because they can’t think for themselves and feel compelled to believe what the “experts” tell them.
The possibility of an event in my lifetime that could cause “temperatures to plunge” makes me worry even less about a degree or two of global warming.
Oh, good. We’re still doomed.
I was beginnig to get worried for a bit.
Now that was funny!
Create a hypothetical and make sure fear is the theme. A sure seller.
RoHa
Nice one.
Eugene WR Gallun
Fire and ice…. it’s the only world we have.
Best learn to adapt…..
So weird… I watched a musical about Bobby Darin (Mac the Knife fame) tonight, followed by a documentary about Krakatoa 1883. Coincidences.
I don’t care much about musicals but the documentary I would have liked to have been able to see ( I surf but I do not surf Sat TV ( what channel? There might be a repeat, thanks).
asybot
here:
Krakatoa
Yellowstone worse again.
Siberian Traps at the end of the Permian worse again.
I like the “12,000km from the UK”.
Its also about 200km from Waingapu, Sumba. And a million km from the moon. Big deal.
The article is merely stating the large distance from the UK (being as it is a UK newspaper). Guardian readers aren’t very bright, so they have to be reminded just where in the world these locations are, or rather how far away they are. By the way, it’s 384,000 km from the Moon.
TGOBJCooley: 384,000 km centre to centre or face to face? I have always wondered,
Oh never mind. I looked it up – average of 384,500 km centre to centre, and of interest, the moon’s orbit is close to the ecliptic of the orbit of the earth around the sun, it does not orbit about the equator of the earth. The moon affects the orbit of the earth, and I imagine the moon’s ecliptic and elliptic orbit creates all sorts of interesting forces on the earth bringing large tides and geotechnical stresses to the northern hemisphere for part of its orbit, and the southern hemisphere. for part.
Thanks for the comment as I went searching and re-learned some things I was taught in school 50 years ago but had long forgotten.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orbit_of_the_Moon
http://www.timeanddate.com/astronomy/moon/lunar-perigee-apogee.html
“On average, the Moon is about 238,800 miles (384,500 km) from the Earth. However, because of the elliptical shape of the Moon’s orbit, the actual distance varies throughout the year, between 225,804 miles (363,396 km) at the perigee and 251,968 miles (405,504 km) at the apogee.”
Now just wait till “Mars” runs into us: http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2006/aug/03/moons-bulge-linked-to-early-orbit
Thanks for the little excursion.
I think I will blame the moon, especially the blue moon, the harvest moon, the new moon and the full moon 😉
Another doomsday story.
In History channel and Discovery they have these almost on a daily basis .
The chances of seeing something like this in our lifetime is minuscule, so again, the compulsory scare stories since the AGW is losing it tracks.
Except that there may be a common denominator between then and now. Tambora erupted during the Dalton GM. The Laki Fires happened just prior to the onset of the Dalton. The New Madrid fault had multiple large events between 1811/12 during the Dalton. The four known older large quakes on the New Madrid were in 1699, the end of the Maunder. Then 1450, the beginning of the Sporer, and then 900 which is during the MWP., but the JG/U graph clearly shows a sharp drop which could be a gm. That one was a quick moderate drop that looks like it only lasts around 15 years before returning to warming. Then there is a quake listed as approximately around 300 AD. On the JG/U 2K graph at around 290 AD and lasting a full 60 years into the mid 300s there is a deep plunge which looks similar to the Maunder. Also, several of the big Mexican volcanoes had large eruptions during the Dalton as did some other well known volcanoes. And here we are close to the next grand minimum. The next 20 years could be a period of above normal activity.
Eyal, you are most definitely incorrect! I find this type of ignorance astounding. Your ‘lifetime’ is likely 80 years, and you stand a very good chance of living through a large volcanic eruption. You even stand a good chance of a decent-sized impact from space – since they happen around 100 years apart or so. Your chance of living during a large eruption is rated as “High” by McGuire:
http://www.theguardian.com/science/2005/apr/14/research.science2
Ghost, I am referring to “super volcanoes” and such.
I am old enough to have lived during 92’s Pinatubo eruption which resulted in the most extreme winter ever recorded in Israel.
Again, I am referring to these “End of the World” scenarios like an eruption of the Yellowstone caldera and such.
Eyal Porat March 29, 2015 at 10:36 pm
Let me offer this up as a wonderful example of why data talks and anecdote walks. It is just this kind of story that keeps the “volcanoes affect global climate” meme alive. Here’s the Berkeley Earth data for Israel.
(NOTE: Incorrect graphic was supplied, text updated to match the corrected graphic above. I also had omitted the link to the Berkeley Earth data.)
The winter of that year was a cold winter, but it was by no means a record. It was easily beaten by 1988-89 among other years, and was only the fourth coldest year since 1920.
Sadly, the volcano claims all seem to evaporate in just the same way when they are examined closely. Here is my best estimate of volcanoes:
Eruptions DO affect the weather, but the effects are limited in both time and space. In general, they do not leave a detectable temperature signature in areas removed from the volcano, or on the global temperature.
As an example of the lack of a detectable signature, take a look at the Israel temperatures in the figure. There were several eruptions during that time. Could you pick them out without knowing their dates?
My best to you,
w.
FURTHER: Here’s my research into the question:
Overshoot and Undershoot
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Prediction is hard, especially of the future.
[UPDATE]: I have added a discussion of the size of the model error at the end of this post. Over at Judith Curry’s climate blog, the NASA climate scientist Dr. Andrew Lacis has been providing some comments. He was asked: Please provide 5- 10 recent ‘proof points’ which you would…
Volcanic Disruptions
The claim is often made that volcanoes support the theory that forcing rules temperature. The aerosols from the eruptions are injected into the stratosphere. This reflects additional sunlight, and cuts the amount of sunshine that strikes the surface. As a result of this reduction in forcing, the biggest volcanic eruptions…
Dronning Maud Meets the Little Ice Age
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Missing the Missing Summer
Since I was a kid I’ve been reading stories about “The Year Without A Summer”. This was the summer of 1816, one year after the great eruption of the Tambora volcano in Indonesia. The Tambora eruption, in April of 1815, was so huge it could be heard from 2,600 km…
New Data, Old Claims About Volcanoes
Richard Muller and the good folks over at the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) project have released their temperature analysis back to 1750, and are making their usual unsupportable claims. I don’t mean his risible statements that the temperature changes are due to CO2 because the curves look alike—that joke has…
BEST, Volcanoes and Climate Sensitivity
I’ve argued in a variety of posts that the usual canonical estimate of climate sensitivity, which is 3°C of warming for a doubling of CO2, is an order of magnitude too large. Today, at the urging of Steven Mosher in a thread on Lucia Liljegren’s excellent blog “The Blackboard”, I’ve…
Volcanic Corroboration
Back in 2010, I wrote a post called “Prediction is hard, especially of the future“. It turned out to be the first of a series of posts that I ended up writing on the inability of climate models to successfully replicate the effects of volcanoes. It was an investigation occasioned…
Volcanoes: Active, Inactive, and Retroactive
Anthony put up a post titled “Why the new Otto et al climate sensitivity paper is important – it’s a sea change for some IPCC authors” The paper in question is “Energy budget constraints on climate response” (free registration required), supplementary online information (SOI) here, by Otto et alia, sixteen…
Stacked Volcanoes Falsify Models
Well, this has been a circuitous journey. I started out to research volcanoes. First I got distracted by the question of model sensitivity, as I described in Model Climate Sensitivity Calculated Directly From Model Results. Then I was diverted by the question of smoothing of the Otto data, as I reported…
The Eruption Over the IPCC AR5
In the leaked version of the upcoming United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UN IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Chapter 1, we find the following claims regarding volcanoes. The forcing from stratospheric volcanic aerosols can have a large impact on the climate for some years after volcanic eruptions. Several…
Volcanoes Erupt Again
I see that Susan Solomon and her climate police have rounded up the usual suspects, which in this case are volcanic eruptions, in their desperation to explain the so-called “pause” in global warming that’s stretching towards two decades now. Their problem is that for a long while the climate alarmists…
Eruptions and Ocean Heat Content
I was out trolling for science the other day at the AGW Observer site. It’s a great place, they list lots and lots of science including the good, the bad, and the ugly, like for example all the references from the UN IPCC AR5. The beauty part is that the…
I recently watched a documentary on the History Channel (UK) about what would have happened if aliens would have joined the first World War. The schedule on Discovery Science is increasingly taken up with programmes on ghosts and UFOs. Obviously with such scientific rigour, their audiences should impeccably trust their pronouncements on ‘climate change’ and ‘extreme weather’..
There’s a lot of crackpot “science” around. Just have a listen to the extremely popular overnight radio program ‘Coast to Coast’, which is hosted by a highly credulous individual (either highly credulous or willing to believe anything in exchange for money and fame).
jjB MKI,
With respect, I’ve been watching those shows too, with my two kids. I don’t know how old you are, but I’m old enough to remember Leonard Nimoy’s “In search of…” series that looked at UFOs, Big Foot, and a lot of other stuff almost 40 years ago. I even read “Chariots of the Gods” in elementary school, but still somehow managed enjoy it without believing it was 100 per cent accurate or true. They’re just rehashing a lot of the same “mysteries” for the newest generation that have always got people’s attention. It was mindless entertainment then, and mindless entertainment now, but that’s all it is (or should be).
I enjoy watching these shows with my kids and pointing out the weasel words, caveats, unfounded assumptions, etc. and how afterwards the only way they can build the story is to assume the wild assumptions are true (and not look at any other possible explanations). Hopefully, I’m doing my small part to produce the next generation of skeptics. Then again, both my parents grew up during the depression and lived through WWII and the Korean War and maybe my upbringing was a little more reality-based than a lot of kids of today.
“Man caused disaster” is more likely. The Iranian leadership is rather apocalyptic…
Doom and gloom no matter what the “Guardian” writes. Yes an eruption of that magnitude is terrifying but in 2015 I would hope the availability of that good old oil and gas would surely help us survive. It is not as if every pipeline, oil tanker and refinery would be affected by this. Existing food stores and the ability to grow them in greenhouses under lights would not stop either. Yes again it would adversely affect and possibly kill millions but then, is that already not happening these days? By not giving them that opportunity today? Give those people that chance and help them prepare, improve and make them better at the same level as us!
Actually we have had a remarkably long period without a major volcanic eruption – 24 years since Mt Pinatubo. “The many small eruptions” that has supposedly caused “the Pause” being invisible to all except true believers.
Iwo Jima is a prettty good candidate for a “big one.”
Mt Suribachi is only a little over 500 feet so not so much to worry aobut.
“Mt Suribachi is only a little over 500 teet so not so much to worry about.”
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MT Suribachi is the top of a quote: “dormant vent of a still active volcano.” It’s height of 163m (500feet) is it’s height above sea level. Iwo Jima is a huge submarine volcano, the peak of which reached the surface some time ago. It’s part of the Izu-Marianas arc of volcanic islands.. The volcano itself is probably 3 or more thousand metres high from the sea floor. 163 metres above the surface of the ocean at one of the deepest places in the Pacific—the Mariana Trench—doesn’t exactly instil confidence that “there’s nothing to worry about.”.
The island has shown 10m of uplift since 1952 (just over 15cm of uplift per year) which is attributed to “resurgent doming.”—magma rising pushing the caldera up.
The summit of the island has been rising for the past 700 years. The rate of uplift has ranged from 10cm per year to 80cm per year with an average rate of 25cm per year. Mt Suribachi is a small peak poking out of a 9km ( 5.5mile) wide caldera mostly just sub surface.
It’s had 10 minor eruptions in the last century (effectively sneezes). These have been described as “phreatic” meaning water reaching magma. Water and magma getting together suddenly and in quantity create enormous pyroclastic explosions. Like Krakatau, Tambora, Thera, Taupo and many others. These are the biggies.
The summit of the island has been rising for the past 700 years. The rate of uplift has ranged from 10cm per year to 80cm per year with an average rate of 25cm per year. Mt Suribachi is a small peak poking out of a 9km ( 5.5mile) wide caldera mostly just sub surface.
FWIW, McGuire rates Laguna del Maule (Chile) as his Number 1 risk. It’s
“currently inflating at the astonishing rate of 25cm a year,”
“Not much to worry about” says Tom in Florida. We can hope.
“Mt Suribachi is only a little over 500 feet so not so much to worry about.”
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I’m curious about that conclusion. 500 feet above the waves is not so much to worry about?
Why?
That 500 feet is the height above the surface of the Pacific Ociean IJ’s highest point wich is thought to be a dormant vent.
IJ is a volcano in the Izu Marianas group of volcanic islands on the edge of the Marianas Trench. The island is probably over 3000metres high from the floor of the Pacific Ocean. The Trench itself is over 4000m deep.
IJ’s caldera has been rising for over 700 years at a variable rate from about 10cm per year to 80 cm per year with an average rate of 25cm per year. The current rate is about 15cm per year ( = 10m since 1952) A beach Captain Cook’s surveying expedition (1776-1779) rlanded on, is now 40m above sealevel. The rise is attributed to resurgent doming (magma rising in a magma chamber).
it’s active with a history of minor activity. Most of these eruptions are described as “phreatic” meaning water is reaching magma.
That could be signs of a build up to a biggie. If the cone is faulted and water can reach the magma, then should those faults cause a side of the cone to collapse, then it’s another Krakatau or Tambora, or Thera, or Taupo etc —a huge pyroclastic explosion.
But that’s not so much to worry about. Japan’s only 1200kms away.
Some excitement about Chile’s Villarrica Volcano. Picture in the link.
http://www.euronews.com/2015/03/28/chile-volcano-villarrica-forecast-to-erupt/
It seems that in these modern times that a good “scientific” scare story is a real seller. People love to be frightened and those old vampire scare stories are so old time. Now we can dream of starving in the dark! But it is now scientific!
Clean air act has taken a lot of sulphur out of the air-thus risen the temperature. How much of the 0,5 degrees (C) global rise since -50 is due to the clean air act?
True, billions even. That’s why a prudent government is oblidged to keep food stockpiles for seven years, for there shall arise after them seven years of famine. That’s the word of God.
On the other hand, currently the entire world is run on 3 months worth of food reserves, like there’s no tomorrow.
In this respect the situation was better during the Cold War, but after that reserves were sold off and the system was turned to JIT.
Should scarcity arise, there’s no cap on food prices, people would sell everything to buy food and keep themselves alive just a little bit longer. Also, with most other goods, as soon as the scarcity is over, economy recovers fast. However, it is not so after an extended famine. No immediate recovery is possible with a deceased workforce.
Famine is the perfect breeding ground for the other three Horsemen of Apocalypse, plague, war &. death.
Most of the food is stored along the river front at almost sea level. 3M sea rise will wipe out most refrigeration warehouses, have a nice day.
10 feet of sea rise in less than a year comes from where Jim? Your fervent brainwashed imagination no doubt. Go back to SKS where your kind of stupidity is welcome.
The ice ages and the frequency of volcanic eruptions may be related. The pressure pulse caused when sea level falls and rises seems to influence the pressure regime in magma chambers.
The tides would seem to account for most of he UK’s volcanism, then, it would appear.
{Mod – sorry – left the /Sarc off the relevant line.]
Whilst the fall and rise of sea level, and concomitant pressure changes, may have an effect, it would be good to know how to quantify that, to even an order of magnitude.
And, as asybot March 28, 2015 at 11:52 pm prognosticates, whilst we have coal, oil, gas, nuclear, peat, etc., in the mix, many – maybe most – might muddle through. I’d probably be a lot slimmer . . . .
Dependence on solar – if there is a bad diminution of sunlight – and wind, if there is a general stilling of the pressure systems, will rather make fatalities increase.
Are there any surviving pressure charts from the Tamboran fogs? I guess none of any real use; just, maybe, isolated pressure readings. Nothing to support or otherwise ‘a general stilling of the pressure systems’.
Does anyone still have Asimov’s ‘A Choice of Catastrophes’ (I t h i n k )?; an interesting canter through the various possible [if not likely!] ways humanity could get pushed towards extinction. Worth a whizz through on a wet Wednesday.
Auto – not cowering in a corner with a flash light and a dozen cans of beans.
They forgot to add Krakatoa to the list. It was known to be the loudest explosion, heard over 3000 miles away. There were also claims of 5 years of colder than normal weather around the globe. I remember hearing about this explosion when I was a child. There were “four enormous explosions” on August 27, 1883.
“Barographic recordings show that the shock wave from the final explosion reverberated around the globe seven times in total.[3] Ash was propelled to an estimated height of 80 km (50 mi).”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1883_eruption_of_Krakatoa
It is an interesting article from historical perspective. To sell the book ‘scare story’ aspect is greatly exaggerated. Volcano that has not erupted previously for more than 1000 years, it is not going to erupt again with the same force and energy 150 years later. Since there is no mention if the Mt Tambora is monitored with seismic instruments, keeping an eye on the mountain’s heartbeat, the ‘scare’ aspect is not based on the current reality.
(Guardian’s note: Bill McGuire is professor emeritus of geophysical and climate hazards at UCL. His latest book is Waking the Giant: how a Changing Climate Triggers Earthquakes, Tsunamis and Volcanoes, £11.99.) Guardian sells the book with £2.40 discount!
No Changing Climate does not trigger earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanoes.
If anything it is the other way around.
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A changing climate sells disaster books.
Large volcanic eruptions correlate with deep solar magnetic cycle minimums. There is an increase in volcanic eruptions when the solar magnetic cycle slows down. The very large volcanic eruptions occur when the solar magnetic tries to restart. We have already experience the increase in volcanic activityand earthquake activity that is associated with the slowdown of the solar cycle (2010 for example there was a threefold increase in volcanic activity in Indonesia.)
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/39934297/ns/world_news-asiapacific/#.VRe6PGctGUl
The period of initial heighten activity (earthquakes and volcanic activity) is over. There has very recently been a significant reduction in earthquake activity. We are going to have a chance to watch the mechanisms live. We are going to first experience Dansgaard-Oeschger cooling and then when the solar magnetic cycle attempts to restart Heinrich event type cooling. Very, very large volcanic eruption correlate with the restart of the solar magnetic cycle and with geomagnetic excursions.
P.S. Salby has quantified based on a detailed analysis of recent changes in planetary temperature which directly correlates with atmospheric CO2 levels (CO2 levels changes follow, rather than lead planetary temperature changes which supports the assertion that significant portion of the recent rise in atmospheric CO2 is due to the increase in temperature rather than anthropogenic CO2 emissions) that 0 to 30% of the recent increase in atmospheric CO2 is due to anthropogenic emissions. We are also going to have a chance to watch observations/mechanisms unfold to disprove the entire set of IPCC assertions.
“Volcanic eruptions and solar activity” by Richard Stothers
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1989JGR….9417371S
This paper is not asking the correct questions. Volcanic eruptions only result in cooling for a couple of years. The question they should have asked to determine the mechanisms is: What physical change causes there to be suddenly an increase in volcanic activity all over the earth (i.e. both hemisphere)? Magma chambers change due to local conditions, based on the current assumed mechanisms. There is no current mechanism that would suddenly cause there to be an increase in volcanic activity all over the planet.
The abrupt cooling events are followed by sustained cold periods of hundreds of years. Volcanic eruptions cannot and do not cause the planet to cool and stay cold for hundreds of years.
The restart of the solar magnetic cycle causes geomagnetic excursions which is the reason for the hundreds of years of cooling. It is the mechanism that causes there to a geomagnetic excursion (massive movement of electrical charge for the ionosphere to the earth’s surface that both cause geomagnetic excursions and large volcanic eruptions.
http://www.pnas.org/content/101/17/6341.full#otherarticles
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002AGUFMPP61A0298A
I wonder if this recent paper is relevant to the discussion: :
“Glacial cycles drive variations in the production of oceanic crust
Glacial cycles redistribute water between oceans and continents, causing pressure changes in the upper mantle, with consequences for the melting of Earth’s interior. Using Plio-Pleistocene sea-level variations as a forcing function, theoretical models of mid-ocean ridge dynamics that include melt transport predict temporal variations in crustal thickness of hundreds of meters. New bathymetry from the Australian-Antarctic ridge shows statistically significant spectral energy near the Milankovitch periods of 23, 41, and 100 thousand years, which is consistent with model predictions. These results suggest that abyssal hills, one of the most common bathymetric features on Earth, record the magmatic response to changes in sea level. The models and data support a link between glacial cycles at the surface and mantle melting at depth, recorded in the bathymetric fabric of the sea floor.”
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/347/6227/1237?utm_src=email
mikewaite
March 29, 2015 at 2:29 am
“I wonder if this recent paper is relevant to the discussion: :
“Glacial cycles drive variations in the production of oceanic crust.””
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According to the abstract it seems to be relevant, indeed.
I would have liked to have access to the full text,,,,,,seems very interesting.
It may just show the connection of earths geothermal energy and its variation with the climate atmosphere variation (change).
It will be very interesting indeed to as a discussion topic.
Especially in connection with M. cycles and the length of the glacial periods…
cheers
“Explosive volcanic eruptions triggered by cosmic rays: Volcano as a bubble chamber” – Ebisuzaki et al http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1342937X10001966
Bill McGuire is the worst kind of global warming fanatic. By chance, several years ago I came across a youtube in which this man compared sceptics to holocaust deniers. Her should be ashamed.
Apart from anything else, he insulted the only scientist to walk on the moon, and the engineer who built the first aircraft to fly non-stop around the world.
Still, having to rely on poisonous insults is a sure sign that he has no valid scientific arguments to prove his case.
Chris
Doom and Gloom sells! It would be odd for any news (sic) outlet, especially the Guardian, to have a headline like “Chance of devastating globally geophysical event in the next 50 years is minimal”
Let’s see, a Warmunist rag asks the question “are we ready”? And what is the one thing mankind would most certainly need even more of during such a disaster? Why, I do believe that would be cheap, readily-available energy and the vibrant economies that accompanies it. But, Warmunism opposes that very thing which mankind would need most.
Irony.
Vilfredo Pareto, Italian polymath of the turn of the previous century, and his power law probability distribution of geophysical phenomena, see Pareto Distribution, continues to protect and inform.
Coincidentally, I recently noticed Pareto frequently cited in Karl Popper’s The Open Society and Its Enemies. Popper, the father of falsification-ism.
Taupo (Toe Pour) in New Zealand, now a lake, was bigger than any of these erruptions by several orders of magnitude.
Doesn’t manmade CO2 cause volcanic mega eruptions?
Sarc mode to standby.