Peru says El Niño threat over, waters cooling and fish returning
LIMA (Reuters) – The worst of the potentially disastrous weather pattern El Nino is now behind Peru and cooling sea temperatures are luring back schools of anchovy, the key ingredient in fishmeal, authorities said on Friday.
Temperatures in Peru’s Pacific peaked in June, rising 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit) above average levels, but have since retreated and will likely return to normal by August, the state committee that studies El Nino said.
“The possibility of us seeing an extraordinary Nino is ruled out,” said German Vasquez, the head of the committee.
Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/peru-says-el-nino-threat-over-waters-cooling-232314417.html
h/t to Dennis Wingo
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A look at SST for the region shows cooler to neutral water in the majority, and no sign of the typical strong El Niño pattern:
![anomp.7.3.2014[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/anomp-7-3-20141.gif)
And another:
More at the WUWT ENSO Page
Looks like more warmish la nada. No trade wind anomaly except in the far western Pacific. No trade wind anomaly, no el nino, pretty much that simply. El Nino as a manifestation of slack or reversed trades.
That typhoon east of the Phils certainly is taking a lot of heat out of the Western pacific.
“The possibility of us seeing an extraordinary Nino is ruled out,” said German Vasquez, the head of the committee.
He then returned to his room to cry.
The first time I read about El Nino was as a 14 year old in the sixties in a little book about curious phenomena on Earth, written in the late fifties. One thing has stayed with me: the writer reported that scientists were eager to studied it urgently because, apparently, the El Nino cycles were dying out; little did they know. It probably shows that the strength from one to the next is as variable as can be and that a damp squib El Nino this time is nothing special.
I guess the alarmists are back to volcanoes for dog ate my homework excuses… 🙂
El Nino, La Nina and all conditions in between are all normal and to be expected.
The problem with anomalies is that people think that any deviation away from the centre point is abnormal.
Welp, Trenberth and co. will have to look for their missing heat elsewhere…
No chance of a resurgence over the next few months? I have a few people who’s faces I’d like to shove this into.
So will the lack of warming from an El Nino make this a terminal hiatus?
Yes, one Kelvin wave never makes a strong Nino. This one has already peaked.
http://virakkraft.com/Equ-upper-300-pac.png
I wonder if the temperature anomaly will remain elevated long enough to be an official El Niño. It has to stay above 0.5 for three months, right?
Here in Australia, all the alarmists were hoping that this would be a “mega” El Nino driving temperatures, drough and bush fire risk higher. Seems like it will be a fizzer! How does this correlate with low and sliding solar activity?
Don’t worry, Big Climate Change will just fiddle with the data to make it the biggest El Nino of all time.
In reply to:
Patrick says:
July 6, 2014 at 1:25 am
Here in Australia, all the alarmists were hoping that this would be a “mega” El Nino driving temperatures, drough and bush fire risk higher. Seems like it will be a fizzer! How does this correlate with low and sliding solar activity?
William:
Solar electromagnetic cycle changes could be responsible for the sudden inhibiting of El Nino events. The peculiar solar cycle 24 could be inhibiting El Nino events by a reduction in solar wind bursts. The solar wind bursts create a space charge differential in the ionosphere which removes ions from 40 to 60 N and S and the tropical region. In the high latitudes the removal of ions causes there to be less clouds.
In the tropics the removal of ions affects cloud droplet size which in turns affects how long wave radiation passes through the tropical clouds. More ions results in more and small droplet size in the cloud which according to Tinsley increases the amount of long wave radiation that passes through the cloud.
There is now observation evidence of cooling at 40 to 60N and S.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.7.3.2014.gif
Solar electromagnetic cycle affects appear to be reason for the increase in Antarctic sea ice post 2012. The solar heliosphere blocks galactic cosmic rays (GCR mostly high speed protons) which create ions in the atmosphere. Due the configuration of the geomagnetic field the GCR that modulation by the solar heliosphere is above 40 N and S. An increase in ions causes there to be an increase in low level clouds and it is believed a reduction of high altitude cirrus clouds. Both changes cause cooling.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png
This is poetry in motion. On Thursday evening BBC radio was reporting on the upcoming big El Nino.
A few days earlier we were treated to the BBC upholding a complaint about them interviewing the (skeptical) Nigel Lawson.
The BBC cited “evidence” from computer models as being sufficient reason to exclude views they consider to be wrong from the getgo.
Always a good idea to check the anchovies, they are a reliable indicator of the most important component of ENSO – the Peruvian upwelling.
With el Nino over the question now is how strong will the following La Nina be. Since the peak has been June-July this suggests that the La Nina will not be very strong either – unless something exceptional is happening.
phlogiston
double-Nina
That is very sad news for Warmist Believers and those in the Warmist Industry, so here are comforting thoughts from Nelson:
All it means is that the Atlantic Hurricane season will be the rallying cry instead of flooding in California.
http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=487&type=home
Snow storage on NZ skifields typically accompanies El Ninos with southwesterlies and clearer skies, without low pressures that result in cloud, warmth and snow melt. It has started snowing in NZ in a so-far mostly mild winter. The rest of winter should overall be cloudier than average for both islands, This correlates with solar peaking. In 2015 we could be past the #24 peak and greeting a colder NZ winter accompanied by El Nino.
I don’t want to say it:
but I told you so
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/04/29/the-climate-is-changing/
Hansen’s predicted Super El Nino is still around the corner then? ;-P
Patrick says:
July 6, 2014 at 1:25 am
Here in Australia, all the alarmists were hoping that this would be a “mega” El Nino driving temperatures, drough and bush fire risk higher. Seems like it will be a fizzer! How does this correlate with low and sliding solar activity?
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yeah but will we hear flim flam and the BoM speak up n admit they screwed up AGAIN
nope
meanwhile many farmers held off or didnt plant..and the break was lat but is been good since,
pastures doing very well with the lack of real cold earlier on, following the rains we did get.
dairy n cattle in my area are doing very well:-) SE aus
crops are looking pretty good /Canolas buggy.
My favourite pizza is the Napoli pizza with anchovies, black olives, mozzarella cheese etc … mmmm O yes! – maybe it should be called the “La Nina” pizza.
Watch out for embedded interests and assumptions. These Peruvian committee members are probably interested in continuing investments in the fishing industry. As usual, watch all indicators independently, since all government-related sources are biased.