This story from the Hockey Schtick is a verification of an analysis on WUWT from Bob Tisdale: No Consensus among Three Global Precipitation Datasets
According to a paper published today in Atmospheric Science Letters, global precipitation has either decreased, increased, or not changed over the past 30 years, depending upon which of 3 global datasets are examined:
“Decadal trends of global precipitation are examined using the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis data. The decadal trends of global precipitation average diverge a decreasing trend for the CMAP data, a flat trend for the GPCP data, and an increasing trend for the reanalysis data.”
Thus, the actual trend of global precipitation, if any, remains a mystery. Several peer-reviewed papers have shown climate models are unable to simulate decadal trends in precipitation, unable to simulate regional trends in precipitation, and that the claim “wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” is without basis.
The paper:
Decadal trends of global precipitation in the recent 30 years
Xiaofan Li et al
Abstract:
Decadal trends of global precipitation are examined using the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis data. The decadal trends of global precipitation average diverge a decreasing trend for the CMAP data, a flat trend for the GPCP data, and an increasing trend for the reanalysis data. The decreasing trend for the CMAP data is associated with the reduction in high precipitation. The flat trend for the GPCP data is related to the offset between the increase in high precipitation and the decrease in low precipitation. The increasing trend for the reanalysis data corresponds to the increase in high precipitation.
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Inconsequential… All three are signs of AGW!
CO2 – It’s a hell of a gas.
Sounds a lot like the conclusions an honest appraisal of the temperature records might reach.
Might be warming,cooling or standing still.
Given the duration and quality of historical records we cannot say.
And there appears to be very little interest in finding out, or establishing a better measuring system for the future ,on the part of our politicians and bureaucrats.
Decadal Trends (DT) of Global Precipitation (GP) are examined (E) using the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Reanalysis Data (RD). The DT of Global Precipitation Average (GPA) Diverge a Decreasing Trend (DDT!) for the CMAP data, a Flat Trend (FT) for the GPCP data, and an Increasing Trend (IT*) for the RD. The Center for Replicable Atmospheric Precipitation (CRAP) has devised an Over Land Analysis (CRAPOLA) as a Water Assessment Standardized Trending Element (WASTE) of Mean Outlying Nonlinear Environmental Yoyos (MONEY).
Just having a little fun.
*At no point is IT to get anywhere near IRS.
update on the EU Brussels energy meeting…paying mere lip service to CAGW:
28 June: Bloomberg: Ewa Krukowska: EU Pledges Focus on Cheaper Energy With Secure Supply
The European Union must make security of energy supply, reduction of costs and the fight against climate change a priority for the next five years, the 28-nation bloc’s leaders agreed…
“We must avoid Europe relying to such a high extent on fuel and gas imports,” leaders said in the document. “To ensure our energy future is under full control, we want to build an energy union aiming at affordable, secure and sustainable energy.” …
The commission is considering proposing an energy efficiency goal of 27 percent to 30 percent next month, according to two people with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be identified, citing policy…
The EU must also continue to lead the fight against global warming by agreeing setting ambitious 2030 climate targets, according to the document…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-27/eu-leaders-to-pledge-focus-on-cheaper-energy-with-secure-supply.html
reality:
27 June: Deutsche Welle: Germany amends renewables legislation
Germany’s parliament has voted to revise the country’s green power subsidies and surcharges system, ostensibly to rein in costs. Critics say households will foot the bill for 45 percent renewables in Germany by 2025.
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition mustered a 78 percent majority vote in parliament on Friday to modify Germany’s 14-year-old Renewable Energy Act. Objectors said households and not industry will end up paying more.
In a ballot, 454 parliamentarians voted for the package, six abstained, and 123 voted against the package of amendments decried by the opposition Greens and Left party…
Parliament’s renewables package would gradually trim subsidies paid in recent years to householders and firms which feed electricity from their own solar, wind, hydro-power and biogas installations into the public power grid.
Currently, one kilowatt-hour of such power draws a 17 euro cent subsidy. Next year, this will sink to 12 cents…
Greens parliamentarian Oliver Krischer criticized Gabriel for extending surcharges to householders, especially those who generated power from their own solar panels or wind turbines. An estimated 1.4 million residential buildings have solar power…
NABU also said the legislative amendments also failed to further reduce Germany’s extraction at brown coal mines which are blamed widely for climate warming…
http://www.dw.de/germany-amends-renewables-legislation/a-17741733
***classic!
27 June: AfricanManager.com: Niger launches coal-fired power plant
Niger has launched a new coal power plant in the Tahoua region.
PANA reported that the new power plant will contribute to efforts to combat desertification by reducing wild logging for domestic purposes and helping to achieve energy self-sufficiency.
Niger loses 100,000 hectares of woodlands, particularly because of the use of firewood for domestic cooking.
Faced with this situation, the government decided to exploit its reserves of coal.
Niger’s President Mohamadou Issoufou launched the construction of the new 600MW coal power plant in Salkadamna, 80km northwest of Tahoua, Thursday.
***Fully funded by the US company California Energy Services (SAP), the project covers an area of 30 square kms.
At a total cost of US$1.475 billion, the project involves the construction of an open pit mine, the 600-megawatt power plant and electricity lines to take power to the main consumption centres of the country.
Once self sufficiency is achieved, Niger will also export electricity to neighboring countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso and Benin…
http://www.africanmanager.com/site_eng/detail_article.php?art_id=22190
If the weather doesn’t change, it will remain the same!
An impeccable statement for use in last resort weather forecasting.
Cheers
Roger
http://www.rogerfromnewzealand.wordpress.com
ANDYZ You are kidding right?
VIDEO: 26 June: Fox News – “Your World: Neil Cavuto: Murray Energy CEO: The president is grossly wrong
TRANSCRIPT:
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: Folks will tell you climate change is a hoax or a fad or a plot. It’s a liberal plot…
(LAUGHTER)
ROBERT MURRAY, CEO, MURRAY ENERGY: I am scared to death for our country. What he is doing is destroying the most reliable, lowest-cost power grid that the world has ever seen…
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: People don’t like gas prices going up. They don’t like electricity prices going up. And we ignore those very real and legitimate concerns at our peril…
MURRAY: The president, Neil, is grossly wrong.
It’s incompetence. It’s evil. It’s a power grab of America’s electric power grid is what he is doing. And electric rates are going to double between now and 2017. The PJM interconnection that represents 61 million Americans in 16 states had their auction this month, and the utilities themselves bid the price of electricity up double in ’17 and ’18 over what Americans are already paying for their electricity…
MURRAY: They’re shutting down 411 coal-fired power plants in America, Neil. That’s about 100,000 megawatts of 4-cent-a-kilowatt-hour electricity.
The wind and solar that President Obama and the Democrats in the Senate espouse is 22-cents-a-kilowatt-hour, five times more costly, and it wouldn’t even exist, except it gets a subsidy from the taxpayer. He is driving this country from a reliable, low-cost power grid to enormous electric power costs for absolutely no environmental benefit whatsoever…
MURRAY: He’s appeasing the radicals who got him elected, liberal elitists such as Bloomberg, the mayor of New York, who gave him $50 million to get rid of coal, Tom Steyer, $100 million in California, most all the Hollywood characters, radical environmentalists, radical unionists in some cases…
CAVUTO: Does it bother you, then, Bob, that George Shultz, a former top Nixon, Reagan, Ford Cabinet member has no problem with it? Hank Paulson, the former treasury secretary, has no problem with it. They’re worried about climate change. They’re worried that if we don’t do something now to take out an insurance policy, we will regret it.
The president has included them in a task force to look at this and the problems that are mounting, including Michael Bloomberg, who you just mentioned. Do you feel like in that company you’re an odd man out?
MURRAY: No, I’m not an odd man out.
I’m in the mainstream of the scientific facts. If he shut down every coal- fired power plant in America, it would affect the amount of carbon dioxide one-twentieth of 1 percent. China is going to burn 4,300,000,000 tons of coal this year. He has knocked the United States coal industry down from 1.2 billion to 800,000.
They’re going to burn five times as much. Which way does the wind blow, which way does the Earth spin? It has nothing to do with the environment, sir. It has to do with power. It has to do with getting power over the grid.
When he says sky — electric rates would skyrocket, he meant it. He’s carrying it out. How would you want to get control of America the most? Do it through the electric power availability, rationing it and the cost of electricity. That is what is happening.
I’m afraid to death for America. And the people in this country had better be, because the people on fixed incomes — and I grew up poor — are going to be hurt the worst…
CAVUTO: OK, but, Bob, what do say then? It’s not just Democrats, Bob, as you know. A number of Republicans are on board with this as well and big believers that climate change is a worry. I mentioned George Shultz. I mentioned Hank Paulson. There are a number of others who similarly fear. What do you say about them?
MURRAY: There are very few Republicans — I’m an engineer.
CAVUTO: Yes.
MURRAY: I have studied the climate change science for decades.
I don’t profess to be an expert. But I know who they are. This global warming is a hoax. Twenty years ago, it was acid rain. Today, it’s a hoax to try to get control over the economy, to try to get control over this country. And the easiest way to do it is the electric power grid and the cost of it…
That’s their agenda…
CAVUTO: Bob Murray, you always speak your mind. I appreciate that.
And you’re quite right. It was 40 years ago there were TIME and Newsweek covers bemoaning a global freeze. We were all going to be shivering. That was then. This is now.
http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/your-world-cavuto/2014/06/27/murray-energy-ceo-president-grossly-wrong
27 June: Mining Weekly: Ajoy K Das: India’s Coal Ministry identifies coal blocks for power sector
India’s Coal Ministry has identified eight coal blocks for allocation to thermal power companies that are facing a shortage of feedstock…
The blocks have been explored regionally by the provincial government and reserves estimated at around 8.3-billion tonnes.
In July 2013, the Indian government had allocated 14 coal blocks for captive use by steel, cement and power producers, including the country’s largest electricity generator, NTPC Limited.
However, Coal Ministry officials said that the eight blocks identified in eastern India would be allocated specifically to power companies given the shortage of coal and the risk of power shortages across the country…
According to the Independent Power Producers’ Association, thermal power plants were facing a fuel shortage of about 120-million tonnes…
According to Coal Ministry estimates, peak coal supply shortage was forecast at 200-million tonnes by 2016/17, compared with 120-million tonnes in 2013/14. The shortfall would have been higher, at 150-million tonnes, during the last fiscal but for the fact that several new thermal power plant did not go into production having failed to secure coal supplies.
Nearly 208 coal blocks have been allocated since 1993 with a reserve capacity of 50-million tonnes to 60-billion tonnes. At an average annual production of 400-million to 500-million tonnes these mines had the potential to last 50 years
http://www.miningweekly.com/article/indias-coal-ministry-identifies-coal-blocks-for-power-sector-2014-06-27
No one has asked me if global precipitation is increasing, decreasing, or not changing, but if they did, I’d say that’s a definite yes.
Maybe.
Pat, the moderator in your transcript evidently means nothing ironic by…
CAVUTO: Does it bother you, then, Bob, that George Shultz, a former top Nixon, Reagan, Ford Cabinet member has no problem with it? Hank Paulson, the former treasury secretary, has no problem with it. They’re worried about climate change. They’re worried that if we don’t do something now to take out an insurance policy, we will regret it.
Paulson retired as CEO of Goldman-Sachs, after dissolving some 600 million in stock. How much of his estimated 700 million-dollar worth is tied up in the sub-prime mortgage scandal is anybody’s guess. I find it more than a little strange that this man, who energetically headed up the U.S. treasury bailout of overextended banks (G-S chief among them) as overseer of the TARP program, now finds the time and energy in his retirement to bang the drum for cap-and-trade. It is also more than a little unsettling to those of us who see global warming as a government scam no less venal than the collateralized debt obligations created during Paulson’s tenure at GS, which he saw fit to so fully remunerate as treasury boss. That President Obama would proudly place this name in the “yea” column as support for his cap-and-trade policy… priceless.
The Rolling Stone characterization of GS and its minions as a “giant vampire squid” is apt. It (and they) just keep on sucking.
So why re Republicians on a Green platform. Its the big salaries stuped, Michael Elliott,
If anyone thinks that the decline in sea temperatures around Antarctica will not cause climate effects in the large error.
Off topic, sorry Anthony. asking re 1.827 sea ice extent Antarctic currently . Is this the largest recorded Antarctic anomaly since the records began?
Can anyone help with this? It looks like it might touch 2,000,000 in the next few days which would be exceptional.
“On this blog and others, most comments about my previous post “Yet another trick of cosmic rays” have been friendly. Thank you. But some people still want to dismiss all the meticulous experimental, observational and theoretical work of Henrik Svensmark and his colleagues in the Danish National Space Institute by saying there is simply no link between cosmic rays and the climate.”
http://calderup.wordpress.com/
In experiments where ultraviolet light produces aerosols from trace amounts of ozone, sulphur dioxide, and water vapour, the number of additional small particles produced by ionization by gamma sources all grow up to diameters larger than 50 nm, appropriate for cloud condensation nuclei. This result contradicts both ion-free control experiments and also theoretical models that predict a decline in the response of larger particles due to an insufficiency of condensable gases (which leads to slower growth) and to larger losses by coagulation between the particles. This unpredicted experimental finding points to a process not included in current theoretical models, possibly an ion-induced formation of sulphuric acid in small clusters.
http://calderup.wordpress.com/
New Scientist reports from University of Hawaii
Huge ‘whirlpools’ in the ocean are driving the weather
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25801-huge-whirlpools-in-the-ocean-are-driving-the-weather.html?cmpid=RSS|NSNS|2012-GLOBAL|online-news#.U65y5L1gDni
Well. This one will be something for the historians. The first black president irreversibly destroys the country. How about that. I mean irreversibly. I feel so sorry not only for the american people but for the world because who is there to take over (and believe me, somebody will take over) as world leader. China? Maybe. Russia? Hope not. Europe? Yeah, right. Perhaps if we are lucky, Germany :-). That’s what it has come down to. If they could just kick that stupid b..ch who started the Energiewende nightmare I wouldn’t have hesitated one second that Germany would emerge as the world leader. The world benefitted so much have USA at the lead. Now, I’m afraid we are entering the dark ages of the modern era. The left is eventually fulfilling their dream of making everybody equally poor to the applause of mega rich Hollywood liberals. It’s a joke really. You couldn’t make dark satire like that if you tried. Anybody remembers the film Brazil? When it came out, satire. Today, documentary.
The missing rain is in the deep ocean.
Jimmy Haigh says:
June 27, 2014 at 8:55 pm
CO2 – It’s a hell of a gas.
*************************************************************************************************************88
Yup and the guys putting the datasets together are probably on the CO2 and getting high.
There are three kinds of lies: small lies, big lies and statistics.
Bob, over the past few days I have witnessed many of the ‘big hitters’ here at WUWT justify significant adjustments made by nasa in US surface temperatures.
The papers you mention are discussing climate data sets as though they were gospel, factual and accurate…surely we all know now that any such data is open to ‘re-interpretation’?
Colleagues here in Australia are working on a correlation between rainfall at a site and its maximum daily temperature. At sites so far examined in detail, the conclusion seems to be that “water cools”.
The correlation is not shown yet to be causation, but it is strong and large.
It is plausible that temperatures might need adjustment for rainfall before they are to be used for certain purposes. If it is not already catered for, one example of a need for rainfall-corrected data sets would be estimation of climate sensitivity. Another would be the calibration of tree ring proxies, which might be better done after removal of a known growth agent, namely rainfall, from the temperature data used for calibration.
However, the matter of getting the rainfall right is a problem unforeseen. I’ll tell my mates to adjust their rainfall before they use it to adjust their temperature for the purpose of quantification of ECS.
Who first used ‘adjusted data’ in climate work?
Which one of these “Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)”. actually uses real data, as opposed to models and predictions?
Sounds like weather to me!