Climate Change, Heat Waves, and Adaptation

 

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51 Responses to Climate Change, Heat Waves, and Adaptation

  1. Eve says:

    I have been freezing in Canada since I returned from the Bahamas. I have not had the quilt off since I arrived, plus having to wear long pants, long sleeves, no heat wave, just cold. Where is Obama that he is so hot? Tell him to turn down the heat.

  2. Severian says:

    Where is Obama that he’s so hot? Undoubtedly on a sunny golfcourse somewhere.

  3. majormike1 says:

    The Greenland ice cores show that 9,100 of the past 10,000 years have been warmer than any of the past 100 years. How did we survive? Actually, abundant historical records summarized by climate giants like H. H. Lamb show that one of the biggest challenges to survival was found in the Little Ice Age 1350-1850AD when powerful storms, horrific crop failures and resultant starvation, and raging epidemics decimated poorly fed and sheltered populations. In over 50 years of traveling the world, I’ve found it quite easy to adapt to high heat and humidity, and that great cold causes great suffering. Look at where our population is growing most rapidly. We’re voting for global warming with our feet.

  4. John says:

    The first paragraph spells it out. It’s all BS.

  5. John says:

    The first paragraph spells it out. It’s all BS.

  6. DD More says:

    Eve says: June 20, 2014 at 7:36 pm
    Where is Obama that he is so hot? Tell him to turn down the heat.

    We did back in 2009, but do not know if he is listening.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/02/03/obama-getting-heat-turning-oval-office-thermostat/

    On the first day of his presidency, Obama allowed staffers to venture into the Oval Office without wearing coat and tie, which had been obligatory under President Bush. Fashion observers called it a new age of business casual at the White House.

    Obama’s aides had a simpler explanation. Though he’s spent more than 20 years in Chicago, the president was born in Hawaii. And so he “likes it warm” in the Oval Office, said Chief of Staff David Axelrod. “You could grow orchids in there,” he told the New York Times.

    But while it’s perpetual summer in the Oval Office, the rest of the country has been trudging through a tough winter. Ice storms have cut power to millions in the Midwest and South.”

    And that was his people reporting on the temp

  7. LearDog says:

    at least you got in……

  8. Tom Harley says:

    Majormike1 is right, here in the tropical north of Australia, thousands of climate refugees are towing their camper vans, trailers and wotnot all over the region, clogging up the roads, hotels, resorts and camping grounds, just to get away from ‘the cold’ in the ‘Southern Australian States’.
    Those of us who have lived here long enough, hate to leave here, even in the summer.
    If you want your cold, you can keep your cold. Stay away Mr President. Bring global warming back, now.

  9. Eric Worrall says:

    I’ve got good news – when it gets too hot, here in Sunny Hervey Bay, 25 degrees south of the Equator, we wear shorts and t-shirts.

    Hervey Bay has a lot of retired people, because of the year round pleasant climate, a lot like Florida. So far, heat related mortality does not seem to be an issue.

  10. Martin Clark says:

    Seconding Tom and Eric’s comments. As it happens, I think here at 19 south it has actually been colder since 2002 or thereabouts, than for some of the 90s years. The following link bears this out:

    http://jennifermarohasy.com/2014/06/cooling-temperature-trend-establishing-across-northeastern-australia/

    Unfortunately, like everywhere else we have had a nasty outbreak of upward “adjustments”.
    If the temperature exceeds 37C and RH is approaching 100%, then yes there is a problem. Those circumstances can be created in an enclosed environment and/or through inappropriate behaviour but they do not occur naturally.

  11. Pat says:

    It is extraordinary how people who think they are free thinkers are so quickly influenced by money grasping quacks and politicians. These ignorant fools are conformists. Lockstep conformists, who somehow believe they are avant garde .it is disgusting.

  12. bushbunny says:

    I visited my Hemo yesterday, and he and I have a good raporte, and discuss other things. He finally said to me ‘We should cut down greenhouse gases’ ‘When 95% is water vapor’ How do you do that, stop neutrinos from hitting the earth? I mentioned cosmic rays, and he corrected me they are neutrinos he told me. I may have spelt it wrong, sorry. Even with the B.Sc in Physics, they are vulnerable. ‘Humans cause most disasters?’ Oh, yeah, they told Mt.Vesuvius to erupt in 79 AD. I just don’t think many really think about the alarmist predictions. Oh by the way, my blood tests were encouraging and I’ve been told to cut out Panadol Osteo that I have taken 6 a day for years. No doctor told me they shouldn’t be taken for that long! They are irritating my liver.

    [But the "Experts" let you take them that long? What was their consensus at the time? 8<) .mod]

  13. Joel O'Bryan says:

    For the August swelter of DC, Obama heads to Martha Vineyard or Nantuckett.
    For Decembers wet freezing wx, the O’s head to Hawaii. His adaptation is financed by the US taxpayer.

  14. Joel O'Bryan says:

    bushbunny, pls dont stop taking your meds.

  15. pat says:

    Matt Ridley has a piece up at Financial Post:

    19 June: Financial Post: Matt Ridley: Junk Science Week: IPCC commissioned models to see if global warming would reach dangerous levels this century. Consensus is ‘no’
    Even if you pile crazy assumption upon crazy assumption, you cannot even manage to make climate change cause minor damage.
    The debate over climate change is horribly polarized. From the way it is conducted, you would think that only two positions are possible: that the whole thing is a hoax or that catastrophe is inevitable.
    In fact there is room for lots of intermediate positions, including the view I hold, which is that man-made climate change is real but not likely to do much harm, let alone prove to be the greatest crisis facing humankind this century…

    http://business.financialpost.com/2014/06/19/ipcc-climate-change-warming/

  16. richard verney says:

    Extreme heat rarely kills in Africa, so why should it do so in more temperate zones, especially since in those zones the countries tend to be more developed with better access to technologies such as aircon etc?

    My understanding is that global warming is not increasing the highs in the equitorial area; indeed there is very little warming seeen in this area; the warming is substantially seen in high latitudes. The problem in Africa is water, not heat. If they had proper access to water farming would flourish. It is interesting that the largest land animals (elephants, rhinos, hippos, giraffes) are to be found in Africa, and of course, when the dinosaurs ruled the Earth, the planet was far warmer than today.

    Further, my understanding is that to the extent that there is global warming, it is not the day time highs that are getting hotter, but rather the night time lows are not as low, ie., global warming (such as it be) is notably warming at night. If people can survive the highs of the day, and if that is not getting hotter, then the fact that the nights may be becoming warming is far less of a problem.

    But the real issue here is whether, there is any statistaically significant evidence that there are more frequent heatwaves and/or droughts and/or downpours, and if so, can these be linked to global warming. Only in 2012 the IPCC published a report on extreme weather and found no evidence that weather was more frequently becoming more extreme, or that it was linked to global warming.

    We are always being told that whilst it is not possible to link a particular event to global warming, the chances of more extreme events is increasing because of global warming. This is a logical fail until such time as it is possible to link a particular event to global warming. If every individual particular event cannot be linked to global warming, there is no observational evidence from which one can go the stage further ans suggest that the prospects of such events becoming more frequent as a consequennce of global warming is increasing.

  17. Patrick says:

    “richard verney says:

    June 21, 2014 at 1:06 am

    The problem in Africa is water, not heat.”

    Not at all! Problems in Africa spawns from politics and religion. All mostly introduced concepts.

  18. Mac the Knife says:

    Climate Change, Heat Waves, and Adaptation

    Yeah, right.
    I adapt to heat waves by taking my shirt off and maybe going ‘commando’ on the under wear under the shorts. That and a regular dip in the local lake to cool off has always been sufficient for ‘adaptation’.

    If you can’t manage that, you aren’t human.
    Mac

  19. Greig says:

    One of the biggest errors that we make as humans is that when we project into the future, we fail to recognise that technology changes and improves over time. Alarmist predictions of future impacts of climate change are but one issue. Another is new energy technology such as nuclear power, which is constantly improving, becoming safer and cheaper, and so offers an opportunity to transition painlessly away from coal and oil without the need for expensive and inefficient economic levers and crippling government regulations. There are numerous evolutionary vectors to “decarbonisation” of the economy, and whilst the actual path cannot be predicted, one thing that has always been true of technological development – necessity is the mother of invention. People in 2050 will look back on us in 2014, and laugh – in the same way that we laugh at Londoners in 1899 who were so concerned about the inevitable looming environmental disaster of excessive urban horse manure.

    This will not stop the climate alarmists and technological Luddites from banging on about future disasters as if technological development doesn’t happen. Let’s face it folks, they don’t have much imagination and are crippled by ideological prejudice, so only see the future as they want to see it.

  20. Dudley Horscroft says:

    Re the “environmental disaster of excessive urban horse manure” see:

    http://www.banhdc.org/archives/ch-hist-19711000.html

    But it grew good rhubarb.

  21. Mac the Knife says:

    bushbunny says:
    June 20, 2014 at 10:22 pm

    bushbunny,
    The docs here in the Seattle area first diagnosed me as having ‘allergies’, to explain my throat irritation. Eight months later they decided it was ‘acid reflux’. A year and a half later, after my initial consult with the docs about my irritated throat, an x-ray identified a 2 inch diameter tumor growing through the wall of my throat and into the intramuscular regions around it. Radical surgery, radiation treatments, eating liquid ‘food’ through a tube into my stomach for 12 months, and chemotherapy have given me a new lease on life….. and the simple pleasure of restoration of eating food in the conventional way. I have a raspy voice now (think Clint Eastwood “Do you feel lucky, punk? Do you?”) and eat/swallow with caution, but life is good!

    There are those here that will offer snarky crap about ‘taking your meds’ because they lack the insight to your contributions here. Those who have suffered the travails of life understand ‘short sleep and hard times’. I, and others, appreciate your contributions here! Don’t let the ‘bummers’ here put you down…. Keep asking for explanations and answers!
    Mac

  22. Pete in Cumbria says:

    Further to Martin Clark at 10pm…
    I’ve done a comparison of UK Met Office station data with as much data as I can get from any long established and nearby Wunderground stations – those with a record longer than 5 or 6 years. Stations in England only.
    The temperature in England is falling off a cliff, typically minus 1.5 deg C per decade.
    I find it ‘odd’ how the Met Office data always shows a lower trend than Wunderground. Hardened skeptix wouldn’t ;-)
    Also it kinda gives a lie to that Trenberthian deep ocean storage as you surely expect the Atlantic Conveyor to dredge some it up and dump it on the UK.
    PDF here… https://www.dropbox.com/s/0qsmg6o6v5zz5gb/Recent%20UK%20Temp%20Trend.pdf

  23. mandas says:

    This is a joke, right? Your solution to global warming is to turn up the air conditioning?
    Seriously, you can’t make this shit up.

  24. Stephen Skinner says:

    We used to have a dog that would sit in front of the fire. When it got too hot it would bark at the fire.

  25. richardscourtney says:

    mandas:

    Your post at June 21, 2014 at 3:59 am says in total

    This is a joke, right? Your solution to global warming is to turn up the air conditioning?
    Seriously, you can’t make this shit up.

    Global warming stopped over 17 years ago.
    There is no need for a “solution” to global warming because there is no global warming.

    Do try to keep up.

    Richard

  26. Eric Worrall says:

    mandas
    This is a joke, right? Your solution to global warming is to turn up the air conditioning?
    Seriously, you can’t make this shit up.

    Fair point, after you guys have finished f*cking up the electricity grid, nobody will be able to afford air conditioning.

  27. xyzzy11 says:

    I’m still waiting for someone to tell me what is so bad about warmer weather. Even if we believe that the hottest temperatures have been recorded in the last 15-20 years (I don’t – while I wasn’t around in the 30’s, records show that it was clearly as hot then as now), nothing obviously bad has happened. To the contrary, the have been fewer catastrophic weather events, sea levels are maintaining their steady climb as we continue to came out of the LIA., antarctic ice is increasing and thanks to the extra carbon dioxide, our crops have higher yields. I vote for warmer please!

  28. beng says:

    ***
    mandas says:
    June 21, 2014 at 3:59 am

    This is a joke, right? Your solution to global warming is to turn up the air conditioning?
    Seriously, you can’t make this shit up.

    ***

    Good joke yourself. If your house is too hot, which is more effective at cooling your house and family — turning on air-conditioning, or stop driving your car or using electricity?

    If you think it’s the latter, go for it.

  29. Steve from Rockwood says:

    Most people die of heart disease or cancer, both mostly preventable through diet and lifestyle changes. A graph of death by cause wouldn’t even register heat waves or cold spells.

    In 2003 over 52,000 Europeans died during an August heat wave. Many lived in France. Most commonly they were poor older women living alone in poorly vented apartments who died of dehydration. To prevent such a tragedy all you needed was a loving grandson bringing you some bottled water and a kiss and hug. Interesting that there are no estimates of people who die because they are abandoned by their children.

  30. Eric Worrall says:

    xyzzy11
    I’m still waiting for someone to tell me what is so bad about warmer weather. …

    You sweat a lot – and thats about it.

    Shortest day of the year here in the Southern Hemisphere, today I wore T-shirt and shorts because it was nice and warm.

  31. Stephen Skinner says:

    “…In this manner, climate change itself leads to adaptation.”
    And we have never adapted to various climates and conditions that exist on this planet before?

    Anyway, this from the Office of National Statidtics:

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_337459.pdf

    Excess Winter Mortality in England and Wales, 2012/13 (Provisional) and 2011/12 (Final)

    An estimated 31,100 excess winter deaths occurred in England and Wales in 2012/13 – a 29% increase compared with the previous winter.
    Key findings
    • An estimated 31,100 excess winter deaths occurred in England and Wales in 2012/13 – a 29%
    increase compared with the previous winter.
    • As in previous years, there were more excess winter deaths in females than in males in 2012/13.
    • Between 2011/12 and 2012/13 male excess winter deaths increased from 10,590 to 13,100, and
    female deaths from 13,610 to 18,000.
    • The majority of deaths occurred among those aged 75 and over; there were 25,600 excess
    winter deaths in this age group in 2012/13 compared with 5,500 in people aged under 75.
    • The excess winter mortality index was highest in the North West in 2012/13 and lowest in
    London. London had the highest level of excess winter mortality in 2011/12.
    Summary
    In common with other countries, in England and Wales more people die in the winter than in the
    summer….

    And this from the Met Office:

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/education/teens/case-studies/heatwave

    The heatwave of 2003 – Met Office Education
    Effects of the heatwave
    About 15,000 people died due to the heat in France, which led to a shortage of space to store dead bodies in mortuaries. Temporary mortuaries were set up in refrigeration lorries. There were also heat-related deaths in the UK (2,000), Portugal (2,100), Italy (3,100), Holland (1,500) and Germany (300).

    If we compare the UK years 2003 and 2010 (as above) it is clear that 31,000 cold related deaths are worse than 2000 heat related deaths?

  32. Judging from the above comments alone: we are discussing a non-problem.

  33. Don Bennett says:

    bushbunny says:

    June 20, 2014 at 10:22 pm

    Your “Hemo” might be pretty smart with your care but he’s not too sharp on what neutrinos are. I think you could have blown his mind by telling him that some 8-10 million neutrinos passed through his head while you were speaking your sentence. I believe I read once that a single neutrino could travel the thickness of a light year of lead with only ~ 50% chance of interacting with a lead nucleus. You are correct, cosmic rays are electrons, protons, etc., moving at up to relativistic speeds, which do interact with molecules in the upper atmosphere.

  34. Gary says:

    I read the article. I read some of the comments. My experience is that it’s no longer getting warmer where I live. Today is the first day of Summer and the high is expected to be 89. It was 67 when I woke up this morning. I live in the Southern U.S. I’m not saying it’s cold or anything, but it’s certainly not been as hot as it has been in times past. Just give it a few more years. I think this whole “global warming” thing is going to be world’s largest FAIL! Then the real tragedy will be that people worldwide will giggle and smirk at science and scientists for generations afterward, if not outright hate on them.

  35. Genghis says:

    The human body is already superbly adapted for a warmer climate. It is cold climates that we have had to artificially adapt to with clothing and heating etc.

    The Warmists as usual have everything backwards.

  36. Philip Peake says:

    Gary: unfortunately, you are right. Even more unfortunately, these are not even real scientists doing the damage. They are an offshoot of the soft sciences, which should never have been glorified with the title of “scientist” anyway. They haven’t the first clue about how real science works, mainly only being capable of applying inappropriate packaged statistical tests to data which gets changed if the results don’t meet expectations.

    Real scientists should be fighting to take back the name.

  37. kenw says:

    Steve from Rockwood says:
    June 21, 2014 at 5:13 am
    Most people die of heart disease or cancer, both mostly preventable through diet and lifestyle changes.”

    Nope, merely delay the inevitable

  38. john says:

    To Eve (first comment):

    Eve, I love Canada, have been there many times (often in late summer, when the black flies have gone). But despite my Canadian ancestry, and my enjoyment of the easy-going people who live up north, I cannot bring myself to move there. The two main reasons are the long cold winters, and the mosquitos and black flies.

    Eventually, global warming might shorten the winters, but it won’t put a dent in the number of mosquitos and black flies, and might actually increase their annual bothersome index!

  39. herkimer says:

    If anything, US should be more concerned about cold waves Annual Contiguous US temperatures have a declining trend at (-0.36 F/DECADE) since 1998. This is happening in 7 of the 9 climate regions in United States. Only the Northeast and the West both of which receive the moderating effect of the oceans, had slight warming trend of 0.2 and 0.3 F/decade respectively

    8 months of the year have a declining trend, 1 month is flat, and 3 months are rising

    WINTER ,SPRING and FALL have DECLINING TEMPERATURES
    SUMMER has RISING TEMPERATURES [only MARCH, JUNE and JULY have still rising temperatures]

    These declines are similar to past temperature declines in United States during 1895-1920 and again 1954 -1979. A similar cool period seems to have started during the current decade .

  40. rogerknights says:

    @ Pat: Did you misquote Ridley? Did he actually say, “… major damage”? It sounds more reasonable.

    Even if you pile crazy assumption upon crazy assumption, you cannot even manage to make climate change cause minor damage.

  41. rogerknights says:

    mandas says:
    June 21, 2014 at 3:59 am

    This is a joke, right? Your solution to global warming is to turn up the air conditioning?
    Seriously, you can’t make this shit up.

    Strawman. The claim was that rising temperatures will not cause as many deaths and ills from heat waves as alarmists have forecast. That’s all.

  42. herkimer says:

    John
    Even mosquitos will have tough time in Canada

    SINCE 1998
    Winter trend TEMPERATURES ARE DECLINING
    Spring trend TEMPERATURES ARE DECLINING
    Summer trend VERY SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES
    Fall trend TEMPERATURES ARE FLAT

    Annual trend TEMPERATURES ARE FLAT

    There is a colder winter temperature trend developing in most parts of Canada since 1998.
    Canadian winter temperature departures from 1961-1990 averages [as per Environment Canada data] have declined since 1998 when measured on the National level. Regionally. 8 of 11 major temperature regions have had winter temperatures declining since 1998. For the Atlantic region the winter temperatures have been flat since 1998 but declining after 2010 Only the Arctic Tundra, Mountains and Fiords, show winter warming since 1998 mostly due to the past warmer North Atlantic .However now the Canadian North has started to cool, the last 4 winters or post 2010 and winter temperature departures have already been 4.8 degrees cooler since 2010. AMO or the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation has gone negative or cool. Expect the climate along the Atlantic Coast provinces to cool further.

    How much have Canadian winters cooled very recently 2010-2014 ?.

    Atlantic Canada winter has cooled 4C since 2010 (7.2 F)
    Great Lakes and St Lawrence valley winter cooled 5.6 C since 2012 (10 F)
    Northern Ontario and Quebec winter has cooled 6.9 C since 2010 (12.4 F)
    Northern western forests winter cooled 6.8 C since 2012 (12.2 F)
    Prairies winter cooled 8.0 C since 2012 (14.4 F)
    Canada’s National winter temperature cooled 4.5 C since 2010 (8.1 F)

  43. Latitude says:

    in the face of rising heat…………….

    WHAT?……stop buying this bull S… and stop lying right from the get go

  44. claimsguy says:

    Asking for examples of bad things that happened in the past sort of misses the point, doesn’t it? The regs are to reduce future warming and future harm. That nothing bad has happened yet is akin to the man falling off the Empire State Building saying as he passes the fifth floor on the way down “so far, so good!”.

  45. richardscourtney says:

    claimsguy:

    Your post at June 21, 2014 at 8:55 am says in total

    Asking for examples of bad things that happened in the past sort of misses the point, doesn’t it? The regs are to reduce future warming and future harm. That nothing bad has happened yet is akin to the man falling off the Empire State Building saying as he passes the fifth floor on the way down “so far, so good!”.

    At issue is what may happen in future and not what has happened in the past.

    Global warming stopped over 17 years ago.

    Passing “regs” on the basis that something bad may happen if there were global warming is like demolishing the Empire State Building as a precaution against somebody falling off of it.

    In summation, don’t be silly.

    Richard

  46. Sleepalot says:

    Dr Pielke Jnr wrote: “There is no reason to think that such response measures (air-conditioning, better medical care, improved building design, etc.) won’t continue to exist and be improved upon into the future.”

    Imho, there is very good reason to think such things won’t be available in the future – government policy!

    We (UK) used to have a(n unspoken) tradition for the care of the elderly – “inheritance powders”.
    It solves the housing crisis, the pensions crisis, the hospital-bed shortage, boosts the economy
    (young people are spenders, the elderly are savers), and the gov.t takes a cut of the profits – inheritance tax.

    Short of actually poisoning grandma, the best (worst?) the gov.t can do is raise energy costs, raise medical care costs, raise food prices, and so on. Sure it’ll hurt the young and the poor,
    but it’ll kill the elderly – and that’s the aim.

  47. richard verney says:

    Steve from Rockwood says:
    June 21, 2014 at 5:13 am
    ////////////////////

    I question the 2003 figures. I spent much time in Spain that summer (having bought a villa there only a couple of years before), and Spain is hotter than France. My wife spent the entire summer in Spain that year. Yes it was hot, but neither of us noticed a substantial difference over previous, or later years. Warmer for sure, but not that much warmer. We have aircon in all rooms except bathrooms, and I doubt we switched the aircon on until about 9pm, at the earliest; nearly the entire year, it is more pleasant outside than inside, so we would not go inside until it was dark, and in the height of the summer,very often not before 2 or 3 am (then again we were not working)..

    There may have been a higher than average mortality rate that year, but I am sceptical that it was due to the heat. Given that there are always swings, I suspect that the mortality rates for that year were a bit of an outlier.

  48. Eve says:

    herkimer, good luck for me then that I bought our place in the Bahamas at the beginning of 2012. I have noticed each year returning to Canada that plant flowering is reduced. Every spring since my return in 2012, my friends tell me that is was a long winter and cold spring. It is a pity, in Ontario, that they cannot put together the increase in electricity cost and taxes with the political party they are voting for. You know, the one that will save them from global warming/climate change. I blame all of this global warming/climate change hysteria on the lack of intellect of the population. I cannot fix that anymore than Obama can fix climate change. But I can move and I did.

  49. Something I failed to see mentioned: The Arctic has warmed more than the other parts of the world – one thing that climate models managed to model correctly. So, in the northern hemisphere, especially north of 15-20 degrees north or so, which has most of the world’s population, cold areas have warmed more than warm areas. Among the areas more than 20 degrees north, especially where indoor heating is necessary, winters have mostly warmed more than summers.

    This sounds to me like a good thing. For one, this would probably reduce energy consumption for climate control. For another thing, reduced horizontal temperature gradient reduces the main fuel of significant extratropical-type windstorms, from most tornadoes F2/EF2/plus, to derechos and nor’easters and hybrid tropical/extratropical storms like Sandy, Hazel, and the Saxby Gale.

    Note that Agnes was a tropical/extratropical hybrid that was not so much a windstorm, but a 1972 rainstorm that set many flood records, many of which still stand. Also, Agnes took a path with great resemblance to that of Sandy once getting north of Florida or so. 1972 was a cool year in a cool period, as far as the past 70 years went.

  50. richardscourtney says in part, June 21, 2014 at 9:04 am, if I got this right:

    “At issue is what may happen in future and not what has happened in the past.
    Global warming stopped over 17 years ago.

    Passing “regs” on the basis that something bad may happen if there were global warming is like demolishing the Empire State Building as a precaution against somebody falling off of it.”

    I see a widely-repeated overstatement-of-the-case for how long global warming has been stopped. Only one of the major global temperature datasets supports the pause lasting that long. None of the others, including one of the two major satellite-measured datasets and a less-warming surface one superseded by a more-warming version, supports to extent of 50-plus %, complete lack of warming starting before 2001.

    One thing I see on both sides of the global warming debate is that overstatement by either side of this highly politically polarized debate results in loss of credibility.

  51. richardscourtney says:

    Donald L. Klipstein:

    I see that you are snowing WUWT threads with your untrue assertion that the halt to global warming (GW) is overstated at being more than 17 years ago. Your most recent example of your assertion is in this thread at June 21, 2014 at 8:56 pm where you dispute my mention of the truth when you write

    richardscourtney says in part, June 21, 2014 at 9:04 am, if I got this right:

    At issue is what may happen in future and not what has happened in the past.
    Global warming stopped over 17 years ago.

    Passing “regs” on the basis that something bad may happen if there were global warming is like demolishing the Empire State Building as a precaution against somebody falling off of it.

    I see a widely-repeated overstatement-of-the-case for how long global warming has been stopped. Only one of the major global temperature datasets supports the pause lasting that long. None of the others, including one of the two major satellite-measured datasets and a less-warming surface one superseded by a more-warming version, supports to extent of 50-plus %, complete lack of warming starting before 2001.

    You are wrong.

    Climastrology determines global warming or cooling as being linear trends with 95% confidence in global average surface temperature anomaly (GASTA). Therefore, at issue is whether a linear trend in GASTA can be discerned at 95% confidence. And the period of the determined discernible trend starts from now and is assessed back in time. There is no discernible global warming (or cooling) if the linear trend does not differ from zero with 95% confidence; i.e. discernible global warming has stopped if there is no global warming discernible at 95% confidence. This result may be an effect of the Earth, or of the data, or of the analysis (similarly, any observed discernible global warming may have any one or more of these causes).

    Each of the time series of GASTA indicates no trend discernible as being different from zero with 95% confidence for at least the last 17 years: RSS indicates more than 22 years. In other words, according to each of the GASTA data sets, the methods which indicate discernible global warming existed for the 17 years prior to 1997 also indicate that there is no discernible global warming since 1997.

    Global warming stopped more than 17 years ago.

    Richard

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