by Norm Buske
Although I am a long-time, casual skeptic of global warming, I agree that evidence of severe, largely anthropogenic warming of the Northern Thermal Hemisphere (NTH) is compelling. The warming of the NTH explains progressive loss of Arctic sea ice.
Meanwhile, the average temperature of the planet surface has evidently stabilized for the last dozen years or so:
[in: http://www.climate4you.com/Text/Climate4you_Year_2013.pdf ]
(Thick line is simple 3-year running average. Average of 1979-88 decade is set to zero.)
Therefore, global warming has evidently ceased, at least for now, because the Southern Thermal Hemisphere (STH) has entered a cooling phase, compensating for the anthropogenic warming of the NTH.
After an artifactual step change (in December 1991) in the NSIDC satellite record of the extent of Antarctic sea ice has been removed from the data, a recent increase in the extent Antarctic sea ice is evident:
[http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/adj_anom.jpeg]
[in: http://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/02/04/antarctic-sea-ice-increase/]
(Red curve is LOWESS smooth.)
William of Ockham might explain this increase of Antarctic sea ice extent as an effect of the STH having cooled, just as the loss of Arctic sea ice has been explained as an effect of the NTH having warmed.
Anthropogenic sources (of warming) are concentrated in the NTH, with fewer sources in the STH. So there is a prospect that the recent cooling of the STH is not anthropogenic. Or the thermal hemispheres might be coupled such that the warming of the NTH is becoming compensated by cooling of the STH.
–Here is a challenge for proponents of global warming: Show how anthropogenic warming of the NTH leads to cooling of the STH, or else allow that the cooling of the STH is practically independent.
What rubbish! “…compensating for the anthropogenic warming of the NTH.”
Where’s the evidence?
and where’s your DIRECT evidence that the “warming” in the latter part of the 20th and early 21st Century has been caused by by anthropogenic sources? No models please. No inferences, no coulds, shoulds, ifs or buts. Direct evidence.
Interesting article, it would be crazy to suggest that 7 billion people have not had some effect on the climate, but I’d like to suggest a partial reversal of cause and effect for Arctic sea ice:
Some of the 20th century warming in the NH may have been due to loss of Arctic sea ice, leading to increased heat absorption in NH summers.
OK, don’t want to trigger a firestorm here – is the implication from Mr Buske that maybe UHI heat propagation/leaching out into the environment is the cause of the NTH warming? That’s what I infer. Is this even feasible? I wouldn’t have thought that a UHI footprint could be big enough to cause any measurable hemispherical effect.
What do you mean by “anthropogenic warming” Norm? I though CO2 was meant to be a very well mixed gas, so the effect on the Southern Hemisphere and the Northern Hemisphere should be the same. Do you mean another source of anthropogenic warming, such as black carbon soot?
Stop the presses! Dr Trenberth’s missing heat attacks and eats 3m Great White shark!
http://youtu.be/Z_QyGANCUJI
“I agree that evidence of severe, largely anthropogenic warming of the Northern Thermal Hemisphere (NTH) is compelling.”
Fascinating.
By which physical mechanism do you propose that adding radiative gases to the atmosphere reduces the atmosphere’s radiative cooling ability?
(Note – a consensus of climastrologists is not a physical mechanism)
Maurice Ewing believed that the Arctic Ocean when frozen over lead to retention of heat in the oceans, conversely when sea ice is at a low during winter the oceans lose heat to the atmosphere and outwards to space through the darkness.
The Arctic ocean is a critical part of the planet’s thermostat. We are merely observing it in action.
“… evidence of severe, largely anthropogenic warming of the Northern Thermal Hemisphere (NTH) is compelling …”
Long term temperature records for the Arctic show nothing unprecedented happening, the apparent warming in the 30s (HadCRUT4) occurred when anthropogenic forcing was negligible.
http://www.climate4you.com/images/70-90N%20MonthlyAnomaly%20Since1920.gif
http://www.climate4you.com/images/ArcticTemperatures.gif
Streetcred says:
June 6, 2014 at 12:46 am
———————————-
But of course! Warmer waters are causing the frickin lasers on their noses to overheat…
Is anthropogenic global warming the only explanation you have for NH ice loss? If it is, then you have to think harder. NH ice loss is not unprecedent.
That is a hypothesis. Ockham’s razor deals with dilemmas. The best way to deal with this kind of problems is less handwaving and more honest empirical data.
“I agree that evidence of severe, largely anthropogenic warming of the Northern Thermal Hemisphere (NTH) is compelling.”
So the Northern Thermal Hemisphere never warmed before?
What about the warming in 1810’s, 1920’s or 1940’s?
Was that anthropogenic warming as well?
What evidence is there that it is anthropogenic warming this time?
Norm said: The warming of the NTH explains progressive loss of Arctic sea ice.
What happened to the notion that it was not so much “warming” that caused the decline of arctic sea ice but variations in ocean currents and weather patterns. Furthermore that this waxing and waning has happened time and again in the Holocene and even historically witnessed by heroic exploration of the Arctic in the past (see below). Why would it have to be anthropogenic this time? Why is the local NH warming anthropogenic?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/26/ice-at-the-north-pole-in-1958-not-so-thick/
http://www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm
Sorry mate, it doesn’t work for me.
Arctic ice volume increased last year by 60%. We are now seeing Arctic mean temperature swinging below average: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
By 2020, it will be frozen solid.
Streetcred says:June 6, 2014 at 12:46 am
Stop the presses! Dr Trenberth’s missing heat attacks and eats 3m Great White shark!
And the Smithsonian commentator said there’s no doubt that the Great White Shark had been eaten by a super predator of the deep.
Can I suggest a simpler explanation? That the tag had fallen off and been swallowed by a whale, and after 8 days had either been vomited up or excreted in the normal course of affairs?
interestingly, my latest results show that both the NH and the SH is currently cooling at the same pace of about -0.014 degree C/ year…
arctic melt is a left-over from the warming period (as the gulf stream retained some heat)
but it will be soon over:
http://oi40.tinypic.com/2ql5zq8.jpg
we are cooling from the top latitudes downward
so.. haha some people just cant handle the fact that the climate actually changed in the past WITHOUT human influence. just amazing!
let me get this logic right, because i have never quite understood it.
right- it is cooling in the SH masking the human cause warming of the globe (co2 being well mixed and all).. BUT when it is in a warm phase in the SH, it has nothing to do with ‘natural’ warming, just human induced warming. conclusion – this world never warmed naturally in the past! now that is some really cool logic.
OR maybe he means that the oceans play a bigger role than land mass, and the larger oceans of the SH are able to cool the atmosphere more which would be an admitting that the NH warming was caused by ‘natural’ forces during the SH warm phase. same thing.
what a load of rubbish.
of course, there is logic that dictates there must be some warming caused by co2, but how much and how much influence it has on the overall system has never been resolved. the empirical evidence shows that in the past, when co2 was MUCH lower, the temperature anomalies were higher than recent times (40s warming v 80s warming). logic dictates that the influence that co2 does have on the overall system is nil or minimal. if it were high, the 20% – 30% increase in co2 should show a marked acceleration in the temperature anomalies. there is NO acceleration.
What is the mechanism to “wall off the
effects” of CO2 from the SH. Until you demonstrate that, the rest is supposition.
Total contradictions in this statement “Althogh I am a long-time, casual skeptic of global warming, I agree that evidence of severe, largely anthropogenic warming of the Northern Thermal Hemisphere (NTH) is compelling.”
How can any type of skeptic believe that there has been “SEVERE largely anthropogenic warming of the (NTH), let alone compelling evidence.
0.7 to 0.8 degrees in a Century is now severe warming whereas a greater amount in the MWP wasn’t, give me strength.
Genuine question, does the Warm phase ENSO transport heat from the Southern Pacific Ocean to the Northern Pacific Ocean and from there to the Northern Thermal Hemisphere whereas the cold phase won’t do the reverse?
“I agree that evidence of severe, largely anthropogenic warming of the Northern Thermal Hemisphere (NTH) is compelling.”
Please demonstrate that the warming is anthrapogenic.
Dudley Horscroft
June 6, 2014 at 1:30 am
You’re wrong. It’s Godzilla.
And seriously, from all I can gather, NDCD actually STARTED the corruption of the global temperature data .
They were the first ones to show a MUCH REDUCED 1940 peak, and then Hansen and Jones took over.
That first graph is, A LOAD OF MALADJUSTED, MANIPULATED BOLLOCKS !!!!!!!
Uh. Did anyone ever consider that this post is total sarcasm?
Please demonstrate that the warming is anthrapogenic.
The President has concluded that the warming is anthraciteogenic. What more do you need to know?