![sdata20141-f5[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/sdata20141-f51.jpg?w=150&resize=150%2C60)
Unless my eyes deceive me, it looks like there is no net change in global drought area for 30 years.
The graph shows the proportion of the planet in drought, by intensity, 1982-2012. The graph comes from a paper in a new Nature publication called Scientific Data and is open access.
![sdata20141-f5[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/sdata20141-f51.jpg?quality=83)
Color scheme: D0 (yellow) = abnormally dry; D1 (orange) = moderate drought, D4 (red) is extreme drought.
h/t to Marc Morano and source: http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2014/05/fraction-of-globe-in-drought-1982-2012.html
The open access drought graph paper: http://www.nature.com/articles/sdata20141
Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system
- Scientific Data (2014) doi:10.1038/sdata.2014.1
Abstract
Drought is by far the most costly natural disaster that can lead to widespread impacts, including water and food crises. Here we present data sets available from the Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system (GIDMaPS), which provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators. The system provides meteorological and agricultural drought information based on multiple satellite-, and model-based precipitation and soil moisture data sets. GIDMaPS includes a near real-time monitoring component and a seasonal probabilistic prediction module. The data sets include historical drought severity data from the monitoring component, and probabilistic seasonal forecasts from the prediction module. The probabilistic forecasts provide essential information for early warning, taking preventive measures, and planning mitigation strategies. GIDMaPS data sets are a significant extension to current capabilities and data sets for global drought assessment and early warning. The presented data sets would be instrumental in reducing drought impacts especially in developing countries. Our results indicate that GIDMaPS data sets reliably captured several major droughts from across the globe.
It’s less worse than we thought!
Nice graphic.
El Nino fingerprint? Looks to be a bit downhill as well; I Wonder what the previous 30 years shows?
Well, this agrees with AR5. There you have it, I guess. There’s been no increase in global drought.
The El Nino of 1997 stands out.
“Piltdown” Mann will shortly begin savagely attacking these researchers.
The droughts are in the pipeline. They’ve been pining for the fjords, but are ready to bust out any time.
The downward trend seems to be mainly visible in the two least severe categories with the most severe being fairly steady.
In other words, it seems like the total area between regions that are drought free and regions in exceptional drought are tightening up. There’s been some ideas about CO2 being a major driver in the trend by enhancing rainfall (and the biosphere), though we would need data that goes further back than this.
If the planet gets cold from lack of adequate oceanic recharge, those droughts will come back.
So, no increase in droughts, floods, hurricanes, cyclones, famines, plagues, etc, etc, etc…
Isn’t it revealing that we are getting so much real (ie not simulated) data that shows there is basically no discernible trend in our climate whatsoever, and yet the alarmists are squealing like stuck pigs that we’re all going to die by 2050, or sometime in the indeterminate future?
Observation trumps models at every juncture.
Looks like a trifecta is brewing over at MarketWatch:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/climate-science-is-a-hoax-big-oil-gop-god-say-so-2014-05-22?link=MW_popular
“Double, double toil and trouble …” 😀
(y)
I wonder if Pinatubo in 1991, even though it cooled the Earth, also caused an increase in drought.
Hey nice graph … BUT sorry Anthony Bob [Tisdale] has surely [one up edyou] with his find, this is an absolute gem!!
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2014/05/13/how-the-earths-temperature-looks-on-an-alcoholthermometer/
A report from the Cal Dept. Of Water Resources on the 87-92 drought published in 1993.
http://www.water.ca.gov/waterconditions/docs/2_drought-1987-92.pdf
Interesting read. A table shows California suffers a multi-year drought ever 20-30 year.
So skeptics are right: Drought rates are trendless.
Anthony, a correction: D0 (yellow) = abnormally dry; D1 (orange) = moderate drought
[fixed mod]
My guess is they would say, the droughts are hidden in the deep oceans.
I see a steady downwards trend.
Question:
Wouldn’t that be the 1998 La Nina that’s standing out, not the 1997 El Nino ??
Otherwise what happened to the theory of La Nina’s causing less rainfall ??
Go HOme says:
“My guess is they would say, the droughts are hidden in the deep oceans.”
—
Well, people have died of thirst while lost at sea…
Well nothing new there. The incidence of droughts of all intensities is going down, which is exactly what one would expect in a warming world.
Nothing to see here (but this new information) so move along now.
“Unless my eyes deceive me, it looks like there is no net change in global drought area for 30 years.”
Actually, It looks to me like there is a very slight decline.
“Unless my eyes deceive me, it looks like there is no net change in global drought area for 30 years.”
Hey, you have not been paying attention. You just don’t know how to correctly interpret the “science”. Let’s try :
Even extreme drought areas are experiencing increasing precipitation. This is consistent with projections of future climate as the world warms. It’s the new normal.
Children in future generations just won’t know what a desert is.
If the current trend continues there will be no drought areas left by the end of the 21st century.
Certain species that are adapted to dry and drought conditions will be pushed to extinction. Biodiversity will suffer.
We must act NOW.
@ur momisugly SIGINT EX says:
May 22, 2014 at 7:40 pm
Interesting & depressing link but a great insight into the psyche of the alarmist
Also so ironic… the people who refuse to look at data calling those who do look at data anti-science. What could be more anti-science than that? Their ability for introspection is zero.
philincalifornia says:
Wouldn’t that be the 1998 La Nina that’s standing out, not the 1997 El Nino ??
Otherwise what happened to the theory of La Nina’s causing less rainfall ??
It depends where you live,Phil. It may surprise you to find out that what applies to californian weather does not automatically apply to the wholes world’s climate.
I added some Horizontal lines to the graph:
http://i62.tinypic.com/24x04fa.jpg
I’d guess the D0 and D1 rankings have diminished 25% over the thirty years. The D2 and D3 diminished to a smaller degree, but appear to certainly be less.