![sdata20141-f5[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/sdata20141-f51.jpg?w=150&resize=150%2C60)
Unless my eyes deceive me, it looks like there is no net change in global drought area for 30 years.
The graph shows the proportion of the planet in drought, by intensity, 1982-2012. The graph comes from a paper in a new Nature publication called Scientific Data and is open access.
![sdata20141-f5[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/sdata20141-f51.jpg?quality=83)
Color scheme: D0 (yellow) = abnormally dry; D1 (orange) = moderate drought, D4 (red) is extreme drought.
h/t to Marc Morano and source: http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2014/05/fraction-of-globe-in-drought-1982-2012.html
The open access drought graph paper: http://www.nature.com/articles/sdata20141
Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system
- Scientific Data (2014) doi:10.1038/sdata.2014.1
Abstract
Drought is by far the most costly natural disaster that can lead to widespread impacts, including water and food crises. Here we present data sets available from the Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system (GIDMaPS), which provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators. The system provides meteorological and agricultural drought information based on multiple satellite-, and model-based precipitation and soil moisture data sets. GIDMaPS includes a near real-time monitoring component and a seasonal probabilistic prediction module. The data sets include historical drought severity data from the monitoring component, and probabilistic seasonal forecasts from the prediction module. The probabilistic forecasts provide essential information for early warning, taking preventive measures, and planning mitigation strategies. GIDMaPS data sets are a significant extension to current capabilities and data sets for global drought assessment and early warning. The presented data sets would be instrumental in reducing drought impacts especially in developing countries. Our results indicate that GIDMaPS data sets reliably captured several major droughts from across the globe.
noaaprogrammer says: The El Nino of 1997 stands out.
Also a peak matching Mt Pinatubo eruption. Volcanoes cause drought , that’s a new one.
Do these data have the NASA seal of approval? If the graph didn’t come from modeled data or hasn’t been properly adjusted to correct for inconsistencies with model forecasts, then it is not to be trusted. Please disregard! /sarc
Steve Keohane says:
I added some Horizontal lines to the graph:
http://i62.tinypic.com/24x04fa.jpg
Good idea. Definitely looks like 90’s was a dry decade.
Periods of slightly higher drought seem to run for about 18mo each time.
What’s the archiving policy of this new journal? It’s called “Science data” it’s open access, I don’t see any data.
Quick, someone spill the beans to Pres. Obama and Sen. Boxer that the gig is up!
Pamela Gray says:
May 22, 2014 at 7:23 pm
If the planet gets cold from lack of adequate oceanic recharge, those droughts will come back.
++++++
I’m with you Pamela: And I think the data correlates well… in the drought follows the temperature… which makes sense.
The 1982 start date may be the best for a “planet” wide presentation. There are many regional studies that reach back further. For example, near Charlottesville:
http://www.cvillepedia.org/mediawiki/index.php/Worst_drought_of_record
Mention is made at the above of a drought in 1976-77. The drought impacted the northwest part of the US also. The Washington State North Cascade Highway – usually closed in winter – did not close that winter. Lack of snow was blamed on the drought.
http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/Traffic/Passes/NorthCascades/closurehistory.htm
The link’s FAQ page – see Q.#5 – mentions the drought.
Everybody know that they hide deep in the sea. But they’ll come out with a vengeance \sarc
Good Point above:
Louis says:
May 22, 2014 at 8:40 pm
……
Well, people have died of thirst while lost at sea…
Nature is complicated enough for humans not to understand that we only are humans and not God
Prepare to “fight” the “non-changing” climate?
The trend is small but distinct: a declining trend for global drought overall, from ’82 to present.
At the same time, atmospheric CO2 (plant food) has increased about 50 – 60 ppm, aiding the greening of desert, arid high plains, and all flora world wide. More CO2 helps plants grow, even if available moisture doesn’t increase.
It is additional anecdotal evidence that more atmospheric CO2 is a good thing for planet earth and all its denizens!
Greg says:
May 22, 2014 at 9:04 pm
philincalifornia says:
Wouldn’t that be the 1998 La Nina that’s standing out, not the 1997 El Nino ??
Otherwise what happened to the theory of La Nina’s causing less rainfall ??
It depends where you live,Phil. It may surprise you to find out that what applies to californian weather does not automatically apply to the wholes world’s climate.
===========================
No, I’m a real scientist. I wasn’t going by the “looking out of my window” method. I was thinking globally – as is generally thought to be the case with El Ninos and La Ninas, as I understand it.
Holy hydration Batman!!!
No trend for the U.S. from 1900-2014 either: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/drought/wetdry/bar-mod-110-00/190001-201404.gif
Yes but drought is hidding in the deep ocean! It will bubble up causing the Earth to dry. We need to spend a few billion to model it now!
Your eyes do deceive you. The trend is clearly downwards. Small …. but definitely downwards.
Basic Clausius–Clapeyron equation for water vapor in a typical atmospheric condition:
warmer is wetter, colder is drier.
Thus one on the whole, it’s better warm, than cold. Things grow better with water and warmth.
I love my malt and barley products: Ale Smith IPA (San Diego), and Deschutes Black Butte Porter(Bend, OR). That is all a man needs. (besides a warm, non-nagging woman.)
Clearly a very significant downtrend. By eyeometry(no numeric data available) there will be zero drought in about 180 years. This is huge.
Quick, hide the decline!!!
But, But, But …
When it rains, it comes in deluges and does not soak into the ground. Even though it is raining, it just runs off and the Earth is actually getting dryer. Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming will not be denied. Skeptics just do not understand THE SCIENCE.
/sarc
Jer0me says: May 22, 2014 at 7:27 pm
So, no increase in droughts, floods, hurricanes, cyclones, famines, plagues, etc, etc, etc…
Isn’t it revealing that we are getting so much real (ie not simulated) data that shows there is basically no discernible trend in our climate whatsoever, and yet the alarmists are squealing like stuck pigs that we’re all going to die by 2050, or sometime in the indeterminate future?
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Indeed! A simple but overwhelming fact.
Also, If there was (and there is not) a reduction in precipitation, it would have to be substantial to be noticed as the world’s vegetation at 400 ppm CO2 is just as robust and green with about 12 to 15% less water, then it would be at 280ppm.
Once again the basic observation is that CO2 is net beneficial, by a large margin.
@Mario Lento
Less worse? Sounds like more better. If nothing else, Climate science has given us all sorts of new expressions. 😉
I think your eyes are fine.
The fact is that the period covered by the above paper almost exactly matches the recent global warming and the “HOTTEST DECADE EVAAAAAH”. Is this not real experimentation V observations? Our co2 out, global droughts not getting worse? If this is correct then is this not a fail (so far)?
Here are some more results.
The abnormally dry and moderate drought appear slight downward trend: this is good. These areas are likely to produce food . Areas of extreme drought probably produce little or no food , so any increase or decrease is probably irrelevant. Increase in Co2 and decrease in abnormally dry and moderate drought is likely to increase food production in poor areas where poor nutrition is a problem and is likely to produce massive benefits.
Greg says:
May 22, 2014 at 8:59 pm
“Children in future generations just won’t know what a desert is.”
——————————————-
Think of the rattle-snakes, and the little baby scorpions….
Hey, there’s no hockey stick. This is unprecedented!
/sarc