Guest Posting by Ira Glickstein
My granddaughter just sent me a link to a video that claims: “One Guy With A Marker Just Made The Global Warming Debate Completely Obsolete.”
I watched the video with interest. He starts off saying he has: “… An argument that leads to a conclusion even the most ardent skeptic and most panicked activist can agree on. No one I’ve shown it to so far has been able to poke a hole in it. …”
As the image from the video indicates, he divides the Global Warming debate into two dichotomies:
- Global Climate Change (GCC) is “False” (Top Row) or “True” (Bottom Row), and
- We take Action “Yes” (Column A) or “No” (Column B)
Here are the results he gives for his four boxes:
- GCC is False but we unnecessarily take Action. The result is a high “Cost” that results in a “Global Depression”.
- GCC is False and we take No Action. The result is a happy face.
- GCC is True and we take Action that stops GCC dead in its tracks. The result is a happy face.
- GCC is True and we take No Action. The result is “CATASTROPHES [in the] ECONOMIC, POLITICAL, SOCIETAL, ENVIRONMENTAL, [and] and HEALTH” areas.
He ends with the inevitable: “The only choice is Column A” – we must take Action!
“All or nothing”, “Camelot or Catastrophe” arguments have great emotional power in political discourse, where the (usually hidden) assumption is that some things are perfectly TRUE and others are perfectly FALSE. But the real world is mostly in shades of grey. He studiously avoids that complication, because, when shades of grey are considered, his argument, IMHO, falls apart.
Let us take a closer, more realistic look at his four boxes:
- GLOBAL DEPRESSION: This box is included to make it appear he is being “fair” to Skeptics. He assumes that taking Action to stop GCC will be so costly that, if it turns out to have been unnecessary, the result will be a “Global Depression”. Certainly, maximum environmental spending will damage the world-wide economy, but I doubt that type of spending, alone, will trigger a “Global Depression”. When we get to box #3 we will see that he doesn’t really think so either!
- HAPPY FACE: GCC is “False”, we take No Action, so all is well! But, is it? Does his “GCC” include NATURAL PROCESSES and CYCLES that have caused Global Warming (and Cooling), Floods (and Droughts), and Violent Storms (and Blessed Rain) prior to the advent of Humans on Earth, and before we Humans had the capability to affect the climate? Apparently not, else “GCC” could not be totally “False”. Therefore, by “GCC” he is referring ONLY to the HUMAN-CAUSED variety, totally ignoring the evidence from the geological, ice-core, and historical records of NATURAL Global Climate Change and some Catastrophes.
- HAPPY FACE: This box is totally inconsistent with box #1! If Action to stop Human-Caused Global Warming is so costly as to cause a Global Depression in the first box, would it not also cause such a Global Depression in this box? So, why the Happy Face? Realistically, even if we in the US and other nations in the Developed World take maximum Action to reduce our CO2 emissions, it is totally unrealistic to expect those in the Developing World to do the same. Indeed, China, India, and other countries will continue to build power plants, nearly all of them coal-fired. CO2 levels are bound to continue their rapid increase for at least the coming several decades, no matter what we do.
- TOTAL CATASTROPHE: This box is filled with terrible consequences and is intended to scare us into taking maximum Action. He assumes the worst-case Global Warming of several degrees predicted by Climate Models despite the failure of those Climate Models to predict the past 17 years of absolutely no net Global Warming. (The most realistic prediction is continued moderate change in Global Temperatures, mostly NATURAL but some small part HUMAN-CAUSED. As standards of living continue to improve world-wide, populations will stabilize which will allow reasonable action to be taken to moderate CO2 emissions, and Human Civilization will ADAPT to inevitable Natural and Human-Caused Climate Change as we have throughout history.)
Bottom Line: This “One Guy With A Marker” DID NOT MAKE “The Global Warming Debate Completely Obsolete.” His failures of logic:
- He assumes HUMAN-CAUSED Climate Change is the only kind we need to worry about, which flies in the face of the fact that most Global Climate Change has been and continues to be NATURAL, and not under Human control or influence.
- He assumes costly Action to prevent GCC will cause a GLOBAL DEPRESSION (box #1) if GCC is “False”, but the same costly Action will cause a HAPPY FACE (box #3) if GCC is “True”. Box #3 contradicts box #1.
- He ignores the fact that GCC models have way over-predicted Global Warming. For example, taking 1979 (when worldwide Satellite temperature data came available) as a starting point, the average of 102 Global Climate Models predicted warming of 0.9°C (1.5°F) by 2013. Actual warming from 1979 to 2013 has been less than a quarter of that, and there has been no net Global Warming since 1997. During this time period, CO2 levels have continued their rapid rise. (See http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/12/global-warming-is-real-but-not-a-big-deal-2/)
- He assumes “All or Nothing at all” and “Camelot or Catastrophe” which is the characteristic of irresponsible EMOTIONAL argument. He ignores the shades of grey in-between. He brings POLITICAL rhetoric to what should be a rational SCIENTIFIC discussion.
Ira Glickstein
[UPDATE 18 May 2014. In a comment:
John Coleman says May 15, 2014 at 12:52 pm)
Ira, please make a video that presents the counter argument so I can put the two videos together for a You Tube “gotcha”. This guy is getting lots of hits and needs to be answered on You Tube.
Thanks for the suggestion John! I’ve done a video Titled: “One Guy With a Marker – DECONSTRUCTED”. It is on You Tube at http://youtu.be/pSmV_QhDmc4 Comments are welcome. Ira]
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Related: See Craven Attention, where Steve Mosher reports on Greg Craven making a buffoon of himself at AGU.
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How peculiar then, that I disagree.
Waste of time even watching it
I have little patience for people who think everyone else is stupid.
My conclusion is that either: A) He has not shown it to many people
or B) The people he has shown it to are thick.
This presentation with all the happy faces probably works perfectly with first graders.
It’s an example of Bertrand Russell’s ‘Excluded Middle’ theory which doesn’t allow for uncertain inference but treats everything as a dichotomy. If you start with a false premise then expect garbage out no matter how well you argue it.
Ira, please make a video that presents the counter argument so I can put the two videos together for a You Tube “gotcha”. This guy is getting lots of hits and needs to be answered on You Tube.
[John Coleman: Thanks, I am not really set up to do videos but will consider it. Meanwhile, you or anyone else is welcome to use my text above as a rough draft for a video script. Ira]
[UPDATE 18 May 2014 – John Coleman: THANKS for the suggestion. I’ve done a video and uploaded it to You Tube at http://youtu.be/pSmV_QhDmc4 Comments are welcome. Ira]
Why is nicer weather and more abundant crops a catastrophe again? I keep forgetting. Thanks.
I have seen this argument before. His attire in the photo is most appropriate.
this is about control …the climate hoax is the club we are beaten with.
it is AGENDA 21 and the reduction of the human population.
This is just a variation of the ancient logical fallacy of the false dilemma with a little jazz to try to confuse.
He’s got as good a shot as any to be the American public relations “face” of the AGW money. James Hansen was for years until he was curtly pushed aside for his anti-cap and trade comments. Michael Mann was being prepped and tested, but became mired in legal claims. Bill Nye the Science Guy looked good, but was destroyed in every debate. His end was marked in that recent HBO skit about with the 97 “scientists” making noise, while Nye sat quietly. He looked like he was ordered to remain quiet, and knew this meant his handlers had no more confidence in him. Defeat was written all over his face. So mass comm now has a place for a new fake face for the banks and energy companies, so why not this guy?
I believe this video has actually been around for a few years now. There is also a piece of comic satire that is floating around which some like to use in public comment threads and forums to prove their point. Here it is:
http://climatesanity.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/cartoon-from-trenberth-ams-paper.jpg
This one really bugs me because it paints a picture that just because you believe the “science isn’t settled” that you can’t be eco-friendly or a true conservationist.
This video was posted years ago. It’ll work on people with little or no critical thinking skills. Not surprised it’s a hit on Upworthy.
His game theory analysis is incredibly sophomoric – even if it had been done correctly. Most of us already, intuitively, understand the simple matrix.
And it’s 50x more expensive to prevent CAGW than to adapt to it – according to the IPCC’s own numbers. His matrix doesn’t align with that fact.
This is a sort of inversion of Pascal’s Wager, where you have one box representing an infinite negative instead of an infinite positive.
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal's_Wager
Diagram about 1/3 down the page.
That was not even wrong.
If you’re unwilling to check your assumptions, don’t waste your time challenging others’.
“For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.” ~ H. L. Mencken
This is very much like leftist arguments for government intervention in the economy. Full of false assertions and fallacies.
Meh. Too clever by half. The major flaw I see in this type of “we might as well do something since the worst that could happen is we reduce economic activity a little bit, and we might just save the world and all of humanity” argument is that the actions that are “required” will necessitate that citizens of developed countries accept reduced standards of living. Worse than that, arguably, is that the citizens of developing countries will be expected to abandon their aspirations of ever achieving the living standards we currently take for granted in developed countries. The poorest people of the world will be the most affected, and they will suffer and die because of it. These “necessary actions” will exact a huge cost in real human lives, right now, today, if they are enacted. The brainiac (so he thinks) with the whiteboard might have a different take if he were to view the pile of bodies that his actions had condemned.
The impact of a large asteroid would be even more catastrophic, ending human life on earth, so by his logic we must commit to spend all our money creating the means to identify and destroy any such asteroid, This, of course, would not leave any funds available to combat CAGW, but the number 1 priority has to come first!!!!!
“Global Climate Change ”
In politics, people instantly identify themselves by word choices.
By the way, he’s using the exact argument CS Lewis proposed: The consequences of not joining the religion are too high to risk, and the benefits are socially good. I wonder if this guy goes to church on Sundays?
This is the clown that did the meltdown at the AGW a couple of years ago. He has been peddling this naive version of Pascal’s fallacy for years.
He is literally a climate clown, if you watch his videos (his is very tedious and dereivative work, by the way). At the end, after he talks himself out (long winded) he falls back to the appeal to authority- if you don’t agree with me, get out of my because we climnate obsessed are morally superior.
I propose someone makes the same grid but instead of using “global climate change” use “huge meteor impact” as the relevant question. then proclaim the “inescapable conclusion” that we should begin preparing for a huge meteor impact.
Welcome to the intellectual (largely) wasteland that is Facebook. These types of videos get posted followed by users posting their “2 minutes of hate.” It’s helping create an uber-emotional, anti-logical and scientifically illiterate society.