More tabloid climatology: gloom and doom about the jet stream, winters, and global warming

tabloid_climatology_onlyyouFrom the University of Utah, an argument that makes you wonder “what started it 4000 years ago”? Looking at another similar study, Joltin Joe Romm called that study Bombshell: Study Ties Epic California Drought, ‘Frigid East’ To Manmade Climate Change

While they focus on the recent winter as being an example of this errant jet stream pattern and persistent ridges,  they completely ignore an almost identical pattern in the winters of 1977/78 before global warming was even a funding twinkle in James Hansen’s eye.

In 1977, a nearly identical pattern set up with warmth in Alaska, drought in California, and cold in Florida. Arctic sea ice was near a peak at the time. (h/t Steve Goddard)

ScreenHunter_227 Apr. 15 15.39

ScreenHunter_226 Apr. 15 15.38

The Lewiston Journal – Google News Archive Search

Warm US West, cold East: A 4,000-year pattern

Global warming may bring more curvy jet streams during winter

SALT LAKE CITY, April 16, 2014 – Last winter’s curvy jet stream pattern brought mild temperatures to western North America and harsh cold to the East. A University of Utah-led study shows that pattern became more pronounced 4,000 years ago, and suggests it may worsen as Earth’s climate warms.

“If this trend continues, it could contribute to more extreme winter weather events in North America, as experienced this year with warm conditions in California and Alaska and intrusion of cold Arctic air across the eastern USA,” says geochemist Gabe Bowen, senior author of the study.

The study was published online April 16 by the journal Nature Communications.

“A sinuous or curvy winter jet stream means unusual warmth in the West, drought conditions in part of the West, and abnormally cold winters in the East and Southeast,” adds Bowen, an associate professor of geology and geophysics at the University of Utah. “We saw a good example of extreme wintertime climate that largely fit that pattern this past winter,” although in the typical pattern California often is wetter.

It is not new for scientists to forecast that the current warming of Earth’s climate due to carbon dioxide, methane and other “greenhouse” gases already has led to increased weather extremes and will continue to do so.

The new study shows the jet stream pattern that brings North American wintertime weather extremes is millennia old – “a longstanding and persistent pattern of climate variability,” Bowen says. Yet it also suggests global warming may enhance the pattern so there will be more frequent or more severe winter weather extremes or both.

“This is one more reason why we may have more winter extremes in North America, as well as something of a model for what those extremes may look like,” Bowen says. Human-caused climate change is reducing equator-to-pole temperature differences; the atmosphere is warming more at the poles than at the equator. Based on what happened in past millennia, that could make a curvy jet stream even more frequent and-or intense than it is now, he says.

Bowen and his co-authors analyzed previously published data on oxygen isotope ratios in lake sediment cores and cave deposits from sites in the eastern and western United States and Canada. Those isotopes were deposited in ancient rainfall and incorporated into calcium carbonate. They reveal jet stream directions during the past 8,000 years, a geological time known as middle and late stages of the Holocene Epoch.

Next, the researchers did computer modeling or simulations of jet stream patterns – both curvy and more direct west to east – to show how changes in those patterns can explain changes in the isotope ratios left by rainfall in the old lake and cave deposits.

They found that the jet stream pattern – known technically as the Pacific North American teleconnection – shifted to a generally more “positive phase” – meaning a curvy jet stream – over a 500-year period starting about 4,000 years ago. In addition to this millennial-scale change in jet stream patterns, they also noted a cycle in which increases in the sun’s intensity every 200 years make the jet stream flatter.

Bowen conducted the study with Zhongfang Liu of Tianjin Normal University in China, Kei Yoshimura of the University of Tokyo, Nikolaus Buenning of the University of Southern California, Camille Risi of the French National Center for Scientific Research, Jeffrey Welker of the University of Alaska at Anchorage, and Fasong Yuan of Cleveland State University.

The study was funded by the National Science Foundation, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science and a joint program by the society and Japan’s Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology: the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change.

IMAGE: These maps show winter temperature patterns (top) and winter precipitation patterns (bottom) associated with a curvy jet stream (not shown) that moves north from the Pacific to the Yukon and…Click here for more information.

Sinuous Jet Stream Brings Winter Weather Extremes

The Pacific North American teleconnection, or PNA, “is a pattern of climate variability” with positive and negative phases, Bowen says.

“In periods of positive PNA, the jet stream is very sinuous. As it comes in from Hawaii and the Pacific, it tends to rocket up past British Columbia to the Yukon and Alaska, and then it plunges down over the Canadian plains and into the eastern United States. The main effect in terms of weather is that we tend to have cold winter weather throughout most of the eastern U.S. You have a freight car of arctic air that pushes down there.”

Bowen says that when the jet stream is curvy, “the West tends to have mild, relatively warm winters, and Pacific storms tend to occur farther north. So in Northern California, the Pacific Northwest and parts of western interior, it tends to be relatively dry, but tends to be quite wet and unusually warm in northwest Canada and Alaska.”

This past winter, there were times of a strongly curving jet stream, and times when the Pacific North American teleconnection was in its negative phase, which means “the jet stream is flat, mostly west-to-east oriented,” and sometimes split, Bowen says. In years when the jet stream pattern is more flat than curvy, “we tend to have strong storms in Northern California and Oregon. That moisture makes it into the western interior. The eastern U.S. is not affected by arctic air, so it tends to have milder winter temperatures.”

The jet stream pattern – whether curvy or flat – has its greatest effects in winter and less impact on summer weather, Bowen says. The curvy pattern is enhanced by another climate phenomenon, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, which sends a pool of warm water eastward to the eastern Pacific and affects climate worldwide.

Traces of Ancient Rains Reveal Which Way the Wind Blew

Over the millennia, oxygen in ancient rain water was incorporated into calcium carbonate deposited in cave and lake sediments. The ratio of rare, heavy oxygen-18 to the common isotope oxygen-16 in the calcium carbonate tells geochemists whether clouds that carried the rain were moving generally north or south during a given time.

Previous research determined the dates and oxygen isotope ratios for sediments in the new study, allowing Bowen and colleagues to use the ratios to tell if the jet stream was curvy or flat at various times during the past 8,000 years.

Bowen says air flowing over the Pacific picks up water from the ocean. As a curvy jet stream carries clouds north toward Alaska, the air cools and some of the water falls out as rain, with greater proportions of heavier oxygen-18 falling, thus raising the oxygen-18-to-16 ratio in rain and certain sediments in western North America. Then the jet stream curves south over the middle of the continent, and the water vapor, already depleted in oxygen-18, falls in the East as rain with lower oxygen-18-to-16 ratios.

When the jet stream is flat and moving east-to-west, oxygen-18 in rain is still elevated in the West and depleted in the East, but the difference is much less than when the jet stream is curvy.

By examining oxygen isotope ratios in lake and cave sediments in the West and East, Bowen and colleagues showed that a flatter jet stream pattern prevailed from about 8,000 to 4,000 years ago in North America, but then, over only 500 years, the pattern shifted so that curvy jet streams became more frequent or severe or both. The method can’t distinguish frequency from severity.

The new study is based mainly on isotope ratios at Buckeye Creek Cave, W. Va.; Lake Grinell, N.J.; Oregon Caves National Monument; and Lake Jellybean, Yukon.

Additional data supporting increasing curviness of the jet stream over recent millennia came from seven other sites: Crawford Lake, Ontario; Castor Lake, Wash.; Little Salt Spring, Fla.; Estancia Lake, N.M.; Crevice Lake, Mont.; and Dog and Felker lakes, British Columbia. Some sites provided oxygen isotope data; others showed changes in weather patterns based on tree ring growth or spring deposits.

Simulating the Jet Stream

As a test of what the cave and lake sediments revealed, Bowen’s team did computer simulations of climate using software that takes isotopes into account.

Simulations of climate and oxygen isotope changes in the Middle Holocene and today resemble, respectively, today’s flat and curvy jet stream patterns, supporting the switch toward increasing jet stream sinuosity 4,000 years ago.

Why did the trend start then?

“It was a when seasonality becomes weaker,” Bowen says. The Northern Hemisphere was closer to the sun during the summer 8,000 years ago than it was 4,000 years ago or is now due to a 20,000-year cycle in Earth’s orbit. He envisions a tipping point 4,000 years ago when weakening summer sunlight reduced the equator-to-pole temperature difference and, along with an intensifying El Nino climate pattern, pushed the jet stream toward greater curviness.

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64 thoughts on “More tabloid climatology: gloom and doom about the jet stream, winters, and global warming

  1. As climate warms there will be more severe winters?

    “If this trend continues, it could contribute to more extreme winter weather events in North America, as experienced this year with warm conditions in California and Alaska and intrusion of cold Arctic air across the eastern USA,” says geochemist Gabe Bowen, senior author of the study.”

    Are you sure this article wasn’t printed in “The Onion?”

  2. Curvy ‘meridional’ jets are inevitably associated with longer lines of air mass mixing, greater global cloudiness, less solar energy into the oceans and COOLING.

    All past such periods were during colder epochs such as the LIA.

  3. “It is not new for scientists to forecast that the current warming of Earth’s climate due to carbon dioxide, methane and other “greenhouse” gases already has led to increased weather extremes and will continue to do so.”

    That sounds like a hindcast to me. It also sounds like a bunch of scientists are using a flawed consensus to assert an unprovable link. But who am I to notice.

  4. The curvy jet stream pattern is what we would expect in a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation plus La NIna situation. The cool eastern Pacific intensifies the high pressure system blocking westerlies and creating the warm and dry American southwest. El Ninos and a positive PDO weaken that High. They need to test natural cycles and the frequency of “curvy jet streams before they can connect any CO2 contribution

  5. “the atmosphere is warming more at the poles than at the equator. Based on what happened in past millennia, that could make a curvy jet stream even more frequent and-or intense than it is now, he says.”

    That is because more curvy jet stream tracks carry more warm air closer to the poles.

    It is well established that fast zonal flows around the poles allow the poles to get colder because less warm air can flow in.

    As usual they reverse cause and effect to try and prop up a failed theory.

    More curvy jets arise as a result of a change in the gradient of tropopause height between equator and poles.

    A quiet sun results in more stratospheric ozone above the poles which warms the stratosphere, pushes the tropopause down at the poles and forces surges of cold air equatorward.

    It is no coincidence that the polar ozone holes are no longer growing and may be shrinking and that ozone amounts above 45km INCREASED from 2004 to 2007 despite (more likely because of) the quiet sun

  6. Global warming may bring more curvy jet streams during winter

    It’s always may or could.

    Global warming may bring more hemorrhoids and constipation

  7. “suggests”…. “may”….. “if”…… “could”……

    IOW, they don’t have a freakin’ clue about anything other than how to generate headlines.

  8. “A sinuous or curvy winter jet stream means unusual warmth in the West, drought conditions in part of the West, and abnormally cold winters in the East and Southeast,” adds Bowen, an associate professor of geology and geophysics at the University of Utah. “We saw a good example of extreme wintertime climate that largely fit that pattern this past winter,” although in the typical pattern California often is wetter.

    Ouch, it hurts my brain; I couldn’t read past this paragraph for the fear of being infected with stupidity.

  9. So, they’ve gone from attempting to explain “The Pause” to completely side-stepping it. Global Warming is so yesterday. Magical manmade CO2 can do anything except cause “normal” weather, and even that I’m not sure of. Perhaps “abnormally normal” weather is in the climate cards.

  10. As a retired Canadian semi-truck driver, my 70-year-old husband remembers having to help start trucks and forklifts in the southwestern U.S. during the various cold periods over the years. He keeps saying “Look at the jet stream” to figure out the weather patterns.

    He dropped out of school at fifteen to go to work, but that doesn’t mean he stopped learning and paying attention.

  11. It is the compulsive need of the AGW believers to write post hoc ‘science’ papers attributing any given weather event to CO2 that is most entertaining. When an academic writes this sort of scholck, it is even more entertaining when a member of the academic community writes these faux papers because the mixture of historical illiteracy and ignorant credulity contrasts so sharply with the educational achievements of the author or authors.
    This pattern raises the logical question: If the authors are so bright and enlightened, why do they demonstrate no ability to fact check or corroborate their work before publishing it? I htink it is for the same reason Lew and pals publish their dreck with such confidence: they believe their community is very likely to circle the wagons and defend them than to call them out.

  12. Sudden increases in temperature in winter above the Arctic Circle occur in the stratosphere due to changes in solar activity. This results  inhibition of the polar vortex. Jetstream 250 hPa can not access the polar circle when the vortex is strong. Only weakening of the polar vortex allows the inflow of warm air over the Arctic Circle.
    You can see it perfectly on animation at the South Pole.
    Startosphere about 20 km.

    Can be seen the weakening of the vortex in the region of South America.

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=28.89,-89.16,419

  13. I wish to call your attention to another study released today by NASA Science News “Unexpected Teleconnections in Noctilucent Clouds.”
    science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/16apr_teleconnections/ in which it was reported “New data from NASA’s AIM spacecraft have revealed “teleconnections” in Earth’s atmosphere that stretch all the way from the North Pole to the South Pole and back again, linking weather and climate more closely than simple geography would suggest.
    For example, says Cora Randall, AIM science team member and Chair of the Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of Colorado, “we have found that the winter air temperature in Indianapolis, Indiana, is well correlated with the frequency of noctilucent clouds over Antarctica.”

    Noctilucent clouds, or “NLCs,” are Earth’s highest clouds. They form at the edge of space 83 km above our planet’s polar regions in a layer of the atmosphere called the mesosphere. Seeded by “meteor smoke,” NLCs are made of tiny ice crystals that glow electric blue when sunlight lances through their cloud-tops. ”
    This January, a time of year when southern NLCs are usually abundant, the AIM spacecraft observed a sudden and unexpected decline in the clouds. Interestingly, about two weeks earlier, winds in the Arctic stratosphere were strongly perturbed, leading to a distorted polar vortex. ”
    They present a plot over a period of one and a half months showing this correlation.
    Note: Polar vortex & cold snap before decline in NLCs.
    Will be interesting to see if this pattern repeats next year.

  14. In reply to:
    DR says:
    April 15, 2014 at 6:38 pm
    Did they ever figure out the cloud problem? How about why the surface warming faster than the mid-troposphere (the ubiquitous “hot spot”)?
    William:
    The answer to your two questions is no: 1) the IPCC still ignores the fact that cloud cover in the tropics increases or decreases to resist forcing (negative feedback, confirmed by Lindzen and Choi by top of the atmosphere radiation measurements vs ocean temperature change for three month periods) rather amplifies forcing and 2) the IPCC still ignores the fact that the predicted tropical troposphere hot spot is not observed.

    The oceans’ evaporation problem needs to be added to your list. The IPCC’s general circulation models have assumed ocean evaporation increases 2.5%/C of ocean warming compared to 10.2%/C measured by satellite or 6%/C of ocean warming based on theoretical calculations (See links for details). Table 1 shows how an increase in the rate of evaporation affects the expected planetary temperature rise for a doubling of atmospheric CO2, based on the calculation of the guest contributor. The nominal IPCC estimate of 3.2C drops to 0.73C with neutral cloud feedback.

    http://climateclash.com/improved-simple-climate-sensitivity-model/

    Table 1 – Surface Temperature Increases for 2xCO2 with feedbacks (Min/Nominal/Max)
    1) IPCC(2007) with constant evaporation and Ts =3010_______ 2.00/3.20/4.5 C
    2) IPCC(2007) with constant evaporation and Ts =2645_______ 1.60/2.29/2.89 C
    3) Same as above with 2.5%/C evaporation change rate______ 1.25/1.33/1.58 C
    4) Same as above with 6%/C evaporation change rate________ 0.69/0.84/0.97 C
    5) Same as above with no (William: Neutral) cloud feedback __0.61/0.73/0.82 C
    6) Same as above with negative cloud feedback____________0.55/0.64/0.71 C

    Oceans Evaporation Problem

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/15/major-errors-apparent-in-climate-model-evaporation-estimates/

    “The physics of evaporation has complications related to what happens at the water / air interface such as wind speed and wave action. However if these factors remain constant, how evaporation changes with temperature and humidity can be estimated with well-known equations based on how water vapor pressure varies with temperature. For example, at a typical ocean temperature of 17 C, it should increase about 6.5% / C if the water vapor increases to maintain relative humidity, that the climate models indicate. If the surface air tracks the water within  2 C, the rate varies from 6.2% to 6.9% / C. Data over oceans by Wentz et, al (2007) report values of about 6% / C.

    But the complex computer climate models (William: used by the IPCC to make scary claims, general circulation models, GCMs) show averages of only about 2.5% / C. There are no claims of reduced wind speeds (William: The IPCC assumes wind speeds are reduced when the planet warms in the tropics however wind speeds have been shown to increase when the tropics warms due to differential temperatures between cloudy and non-cloudy regions) or wave action or increased relative humidity to explain this. However many papers on the subject claim that the available energy is limiting evaporation in these models.”

    Satellite data shows evaporation of the tropical ocean increases 10.5%/C of ocean warming which is higher than the calculated 6.5%/C of ocean warming as the wind speed over the ocean increases when it warms.

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/04/ssmi-global-ocean-product-update-increasing-clouds-with-a-chance-of-cooling/

    “SSM/I Global Ocean Product Update: Increasing clouds with a chance of cooling
    The water vapor variations lag the SST variations by an average of one month. A regression relationship reveals an average 10.2% increase in vapor per deg. C increase in SST. This is larger than the theoretically-expected value of 6.5% to 7% increase, a discrepancy which can be interpreted in different ways (more evaporative cooling of the ocean stabilizing the climate, or more water vapor feedback destabilizing the climate — take your pick).”

    P.S. Idso uses 10 different natural phenomena where a known forcing change caused by different natural phenomenon is used to calculate the planet’s sensitivity to a change in forcing. Idso’s best estimate for the warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 from that calculation is 0.4C.

    http://www.mitosyfraudes.org/idso98.pdf

  15. There is no way that the viscosity or density of air could be sufficiently affected by a few hundred parts per million of CO₂ to cause the jet stream to move southward, northward, upward or downward. This pseudoscience is just more of WHAT LYSENKO SPAWNED.

  16. Phenomena that occur in winter in the stratosphere in the polar vortex has nothing to do with global warming because warm in the zone of the ozone moves from the top to bottom.

  17. I was unable to cut and paste a paragraph from the article. Is anyone else having similar difficulties?

    [Note that the “image graphic” does contain words, but they are not text. They are pixels just like any other graphic scanned from the original cartoon of the winds. Is that what you are trying to cut-and-paste? Mod]

  18. I am experiencing difficulties in cutting and pasting a paragraph from the article. Is anyone else experiencing problems?

  19. The Lewiston Journal’s and other medias “report” on the so called “freak weather” was a blatant attempt by denialisticismists to sabotage the real truth reported by present day climate scientologists who deserve better than to be bombarded with so called facts

    (do i really need to add a sarc tag?)

  20. “The study was funded by the National Science Foundation, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science and a joint program by the society and Japan’s Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology: the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change.”

    Seems like their questionable research was a nice little earner from six funding bodies.

  21. Ever notice how no one even considers the possibility that the Holocene might be nearing its end?

    Virtually every one of these “studies” rambles on and on about millennial or shorter patterns without one single word about the already half-precession cycle old Holocene. It’s like climate would just continue on and on like the present if it were not for us.

    Fascinatingly, if they are right about CO2, would it not be the single most important atmospheric ingredient for fighting off glacial inception? Ever consider that?

  22. William McClenney says:
    April 16, 2014 at 9:55 am
    Ever notice how no one even considers the possibility that the Holocene might be nearing its end?
    =====

  23. Another banal study that adds the politically correct, obligatory references to future warming “may” make more for more severe weather intrusions into the US.

    “…a longstanding and persistent pattern of climate variability,” Bowen says. Yet it also suggests global warming may enhance the pattern so there will be more frequent or more severe winter weather extremes or both.”

    The simple use of “may enhance,” belies the truth that it “may” also reduce weather extremes (a less frequent curvy jetstream) if the Global warmists are to be believed. But then would that lead to the catastrophes they need to keep the public willing to fork over money for more of this “half-truth science”?”

    Gabe Bowen is ready now to queue up the grant application submission for more anthropogenic climate change studies.

  24. Have we re-defined the meaning of ‘jet stream’ at the expense of Rossby Waves?

    Would not the phenom we see, in lieu of invoking ‘changes in the jet stream’ be termed rather: ‘an increase in the amplitude of Rossby Waves’, thereby resulting in more meridional (latitudinal) flow vs zonal (or longitude-inal) flow in the atmosphere?

    Rossby waves – http://www.geogonline.org.uk/g3a_ki4.1.htm
    Zonal vs Meridional – http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/159/

  25. Instead of using proxies, why don’t they use something like the 20th Century Reanalysis product. This includes datasets of zonal and meriodonal winds over a 100+ year period. From this you can calculate the wind headings. I’ve done this and while there were some interesting results, nothing looked out of the ordinary.

  26. William McClenney says:
    April 16, 2014 at 9:55 am

    Ever notice how no one even considers the possibility that the Holocene might be nearing its end?

    Virtually every one of these “studies” rambles on and on about millennial or shorter patterns without one single word about the already half-precession cycle old Holocene. It’s like climate would just continue on and on like the present if it were not for us.

    Fascinatingly, if they are right about CO2, would it not be the single most important atmospheric ingredient for fighting off glacial inception? Ever consider that?

    If you compare the coldest weather patterns of these cycles with the distribution of ice during the LGM, the two appear rather remarkably similar. All it would require is a slight, extended persistence of the pattern over several years to trigger glacial and then ice sheet formation in northeastern Canada. Then, the question becomes, “what would a persistent cold air mass over eastern Canada have on weather patterns to the west?” I don’t think Las Vegas is in a Pluvial Lake basin, but Reno and Salt Lake city both are, and both lakes Lahontan and Bonneville was several hundred feet deep. The idea that CO2 might mitigate or prevent the onset of a glacial epoch was advanced at the end of the 19th or early 20th centuries. I don’t recall whether Arrhenius himself suggested it or not.

  27. they also noted a cycle in which increases in the sun’s intensity every 200 years make the jet stream flatter.

    More support for the proposition that an active sun flattens the jet stream and a quiet sun makes it more circuitous which, as Stephen Wilde has been pointing out, should have a global warming and a global cooling effect respectively. I just find it hard to believe that they can get sufficient time resolution on lake sediments and stalagmite accretions to detect jet stream effects. Wouldn’t they have to identify individual sediment-years for comparison between the eastern and western U.S.? These are weather events, and as recent climate history shows, even if there is a tendency for these weather events to happen under certain conditions there will still be a lot of years where they are not happening. 1977 was a big “polar outbreak” year. This was a big year. But if the individual years are not detectable then the signal of temperature difference between east and west quickly becomes highly diluted.

  28. We still had ice receding and forming the Great Lakes during the period referenced in the study. Ya think that having a large portion of the North American Continent covered with ice might have an impact on weather patterns? Talk about pulling a rabbit out of a hat. Where is my BS Button!

  29. Noticed the term “teleconnection” in the article and ironically saw this article from NASA:

    Unexpected Teleconnections in Noctilucent Clouds
    “New data from NASA’s AIM spacecraft have revealed “teleconnections” in Earth’s atmosphere that stretch all the way from the North Pole to the South Pole and back again, linking weather and climate more closely than simple geography would suggest.
    For example, says Cora Randall, AIM science team member and Chair of the Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of Colorado, “we have found that the winter air temperature in Indianapolis, Indiana, is well correlated with the frequency of noctilucent clouds over Antarctica.”

    http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/16apr_teleconnections/

    More evidence that no one has a clue as to what’s going on out there…

  30. “In addition to this millennial-scale change in jet stream patterns, they also noted a cycle in which increases in the sun’s intensity every 200 years make the jet stream flatter.”

    Wait – they are saying there is a solar influence ??? Heresy !
    And there was “climate change” 4000 years ago without the help of manmade CO2 ???? Double heresy !

    … but now it is all due to CO2 & AGW ???? …… seems like a there just might be a big logic flaw in here to me.

    And Oh, BTW, my favorite “Joes” at Weatherbell forecasted this winter almost perfectly without any need to call on an mechanism related to CO2.

    …. sounds like the science isn’t settled to me.

  31. Let me see if I have this straight, and please let me knoe if I am understanding it improperly

    “They found that the jet stream pattern – known technically as the Pacific North American teleconnection – shifted to a generally more “positive phase” – meaning a curvy jet stream – over a 500-year period starting about 4,000 years ago. In addition to this millennial-scale change in jet stream patterns, they also noted a cycle in which increases in the sun’s intensity every 200 years make the jet stream flatter.”

    About 4000 years ago, the jet stream became Wavey but it must have been caused by ?Low Solar Activity? since the 200 year Cycles with increased activity make the jet stream flatter. So now the stream becomes wavey but it is warmng induced CO2 and not Low Solar Activity. Or was the prior wavey stream 4000 years ago induced by global warming?

  32. The GCR/low-altitude-cloud connection was discovered by Svensmark, corroborated by Marsden & Lingenfelter and again by the CLOUD experiment at CERN.

    The sensitivity of average global temperature (AGT) to low altitude clouds is calculated at http://lowaltitudeclouds.blogspot.com/ .

    Application of the energy equation leads to the time-integral of sunspot numbers as a proxy for the above.

    When combined with the surface temperature oscillation caused by the average of ocean oscillations, this calculates AGT since before 1900 with R^2>0.9 as demonstrated at http://agwunveiled.blogspot.com/

  33. Bryan A says:
    So now the stream becomes wavey but it is warmng induced CO2 and not Low Solar Activity. Or was the prior wavey stream 4000 years ago induced by global warming?
    Changes in geomagnetic activity. Can you see the differences?

  34. I remember that winter well. We were on the cusp. It seemed like we got an ice storm every weekend. I have not seen one like it since (we get ice, but not just as many). Even this winter was a little better in that we got mostly snow (albeit not a lot each time).

    I think they added too many zeros to their study. Maybe just wishful thinking as they were hoping for a few more zeros on their grant?

  35. The gospel according to Gabe. I guess when he gave up Christianity he gave up his trumpet.

  36. Yet it also suggests global warming may enhance the pattern so there will be more frequent or more severe winter weather extremes or both.

    All bases covered with speculative drivel I see. Bollocks to this!

    Not long ago they told us in no uncertain terms that global warming would lead to warmer winters not coldwarm winters.

  37. Human-caused climate change is reducing equator-to-pole temperature differences; the atmosphere is warming more at the poles than at the equator.

    I was lead to understand that this would lead to less extreme weather. Also consider the Great storms of the Little Ice Age in which climatologists, such as Lamb, blamed the enhanced temperature gradient.

  38. In my job, if I “suggested” that my data “may” represent the target area or “may not” I would be out on my can.

    Must be nice to get paid with my money even if your results don’t matter.

    Anger.

  39. I think Latitude said it best on another thread:

    Latitude says:
    April 12, 2014 at 3:07 pm

    “It rain’d all night the day I left,
    The weather it was dry,
    The sun so hot I froze to death;
    Susanna, don’t you cry.”
    The Global Warming Musical

    Stephen Foster (sadly) ended up where we’ll all be if we don’t stop this madness soon….

  40. People who know their aft from their elbow refer to a jet stream that circles along lines of latitude as “zonal,” and the jet streams (caused by “blocks”) which curve north and south as “meridianal.”

    If you insist upon talking a sort of baby-talk to ignorant civilians, you might as well invent vocabulary that children would appreciate, and children wouldn’t appreciate calling a meridianal jet-stream “curvy.” (Kids know when you are talking down to them.) “Loopy”, on the other hand, would get grins, for that sort of jet stream sure does cause loopy weather.

    The most bizarre event I know of caused by a loopy jet stream occurred when things were thrown out-of-balance by the eruption of Tamboro in 1815. Dr. Tim Ball likely would know more, but apparently a large amount of the Arctic ice was flushed south into the North Atlantic, even coming ashore in Ireland. With the Atlantic so chilled, this may have contributed to the Year Without A Summer in Europe. However if Alarmists had been around back then, they would have insisted the world was warming, because there was less ice in the Arctic Ocean. (I got a fairly good discussion going on this topic with this post: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/08/1815-1816-and-1817-a-polar-puzzle/ )

    A zonal jet stream creates a situation where it is relatively calm at the Pole. Ice may get a little thicker, but the water beneath is never exposed. Air temperatures in the calm get colder as well, but the air never charges south as arctic outbreaks to Chicago.

    This past winter a loopy jet had strong winds over the arctic. The ice was shoved about and great cracks appeared. Ice got thicker where it was heaped up as pressure ridges, but was thinner where it had to freeze over several times because water was exposed by “leads” that could be miles across. The air was warmed by the exposure to sea-water, but the sea-water was likely chilled more than normal.

    I heard a terrific example of the tabloid mentality today when reading the Facebook comments under a friend’s post from Chicago. The friend was cursing about the plunging temperatures and swirling snow that Chicago experienced yesterday, and a person stated it proved Global Warming was happening. This person noted the warmer temperatures at the Pole, and stated the “hidden heat in the ocean” was arising there, and “the cold air had to go someplace.” (IE: Chicago.) (I assume that when this fellow cooks and his kitchen warms up, he opens his fridge, because the “cold has to go someplace” and it might as well enter his refrigerator. Maybe he unplugs his fridge, when he cooks a lot.)

    I get the sense the tabloid mentality talks through its hat a lot. On one hand they express the politically-correct concern about an ice-free Pole, but on the other hand they go jet-setting up there and land on an airstrip the Russian’s have constructed on the thin ice, to do a bit of cross-country-skiing in a landscape where the sun never sets:

    http://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2014/04/13/%EF%BB%BFjets-landing-on-north-pole-ice/

    The hypocrisy of Alarmists astounds me. Al Gore is not alone. They talk the talk but never walk the walk. The worst part is that, though they praise taxes, quite often they find a way around paying any. (I just paid mine, and am broke and bitter, in case you didn’t sense it already.)

  41. Violent weather is SO Little Ice Age. We must act now!

    Abstract
    The little ice age and Scotland’s weather
    Some 10,000 years ago with the disappearance of the last Devensian ice, the climate of the British Isles began a slow but general warming. This continued until the middle of the fifteenth century when the Little Ice Age developed, ushering in several centuries of colder weather and violent fluctuations in weather associated with the expansion of the circumpolar vortex……

    http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00369228518736634#.U08NrZx9CHQ

    ————————————————-
    Abstract – 1984
    Some Studies of the Little Ice Age of Recent Centuries and its Great Storms
    ……..The enhanced thermal gradient between latitudes about 50° and 60–65°N in this part of the world is thought to have provided a basis for the development of some greater wind storms in these latitudes than have occurred in most of the last 100 years, though there are signs that in about the last decade or two storminess has been increasing again…….

    http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-015-7692-5_34

    I can’t recount the times I have been told that the Little Ice Age was just a northern hemisphere affair.

    Abstract
    “The “Little Ice Age” was the most recent period during which glaciers extended globally…..”

    http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-017-3352-6_2

  42. “It is not new for scientists to forecast that the current warming of Earth’s climate due to carbon dioxide, methane and other “greenhouse” gases already has led to increased weather extremes and will continue to do so.”

    If this is so obvious then there has to be at least FIVE papers showing this. They would need to clearly show that such “increased weather extremes” are not driven mainly by natural climate variations. I keep asking Warmists for this evidence and they continue to fail to do so. Why????

    I call BS on this claim until I am shown to be mistaken.

  43. Global warming may bring more curvy jet streams during winter

    To put it another way

    Global warming may bring more curvy jet streams flying out of my arse
    Global warming may bring more curves to my hips.
    Global warming may bring more curvy jet streams during summer

    This is simply speculative drivel, driven by models and guess work. Einstein would be spinning in his grave.

    [The mods will not tolerate any additional descriptive comments about Jimbo’s newly hippy curves. 8<) Mod]

  44. William McClenney says:
    April 16, 2014 at 9:55 am
    Ever notice how no one even considers the possibility that the Holocene might be nearing its end?

    Sorry to inform you that even if a new glaciation started they would still blame global warming climate change caused by man. They will not allow themselves to be won over no matter what happens. You are dealing with a New Age religion. They used to blame warm winters on global warming. Now they blame cold winters on global warming. Next they will blame average winters on…………………………………………………global warming.

  45. Given the benefit of the doubt, if it (the “polar vortex”) would have centered itself over the northern pacific ocean, instead of the central U.S., would we even be having this discussion.
    Yep, the U.S. is only 3% of the earths surface.

    Now tell me, the (world) percentage of science grants its citizens pay for.

    We have to fight for the data of the research ?
    When the children’s lives hang in the balance ?

  46. [The mods will not tolerate any additional descriptive comments about Jimbo’s newly hippy curves. 8<) Mod]

    ==================
    Define "descriptive comments".
    On second thought, don't :)

  47. Yet it also suggests global warming may enhance the pattern so there will be more frequent or more severe winter weather extremes or both. UGH………

    Madame Zenda’s Astrology, Phrenology, Tarot Card and Crystal Ball Readings may provide more accurate predictions than this ‘suggestive’ pile of AGW speculation. This non-science speculation, offered for its fear mongering and rent seeking value, is revolting to a rational mind. A decent body of field work, detailed lab analyses, and compiled results are substantially discounted as a result of that stupid, baseless speculation.

    We have little idea how the weather patterns over the North American continent vary across the span of an interglacial period or why. We have little idea if this interglacial period will ‘last’ 100 more years…. or 6000 more years before glaciation begins anew. We have little idea why an interglacial ends and a glaciation period restarts, other than ‘it became colder again’. We have little idea of how violent or quiescent the weather patterns may be as we approach the glacial re-entry point. Add in some seemingly random events, such as major vulcanism or a significant meteor strike on the planet, to our incredible lack of interglacial/glacial period knowledge and any and all such ‘suggestive predictions’ become just talking rancid fear mongering from your nether orifice.

  48. ‘Yet it also suggests global warming may enhance the pattern ‘

    The jet stream is getting old and needs such enhancements.

  49. Well at least they have curvy models. This one less so:

    California Drought/Polar Vortex Jet Stream Pattern Linked to Global Warmin

    Summarized very nicely here:

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2665

    Here is the original paper (paywalled)

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059748/abstract

    The 2013-14 California drought was accompanied by an anomalous high-amplitude ridge system. The anomalous ridge was investigated using reanalysis data and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). It was found that the ridge emerged from continual sources of Rossby wave energy in the western North Pacific starting in late summer, and subsequently intensified into winter. The ridge generated a surge of wave energy downwind and deepened further the trough over the northeast U.S., forming a dipole. The dipole and associated circulation pattern is not linked directly with either ENSO or Pacific Decadal Oscillation; instead it is correlated with a type of ENSO precursor. The connection between the dipole and ENSO precursor has become stronger since the 1970s, and this is attributed to increased GHG loading as simulated by the CESM. Therefore, there is a traceable anthropogenic warming footprint in the enormous intensity of the anomalous ridge during winter 2013-14, the associated drought and its intensity.

    Copied from a comment on Zerohedge here:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-16/103-mentions-weather-it-time-rename-beige-book-weather-book

  50. This image shows the well the importance of growth of cosmic rays in the situation of weakening the magnetic field of the Sun.

  51. From

    Galway’s drowned forest shows climate change is nothing new
    by Lorna Siggins
    April 17 2004

    http://www.irishtimes.com/news/science/galway-s-drowned-forest-shows-climate-change-is-nothing-new-1.1764077?page=1

    “Prof Michael Williams of NUI Galway discovered evidence of a 7,500-year-old drowned forest on the northern shores of Galway Bay,..he says” if we examine past climates which have existed on Earth, we see that at present the Earth is cooler, sea levels are lower and atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide are less than they have been for most of Earth history, …“

    “So we can expect sea levels to rise another 10m-20m, over the next few tens of thousands of years… ..”

    “the isotopic composition of carbon-dioxide relates to volcanic emissions and fossil fuels, he notes, and one is “indistinguishable” from the other.”

    “Rapid climate changes occurred, some by as much as 16 degrees, in time frames as short as decades,” he says, and we are living in one such interglacial stage now. “Even if industrial development had not occurred, the Earth would still have warmed since the last ice retreat 11,000 years ago.” .

    .

  52. Is there a correlation between rising temperatures and curvy models? IF so, we could have some important decisions to make. Paracetamol or Viagra?

  53. Mac the Knife says: @ April 16, 2014 at 5:35 pm
    …Madame Zenda’s Astrology, Phrenology, Tarot Card and Crystal Ball Readings may provide more accurate predictions than this ‘suggestive’ pile of AGW speculation.
    >>>>>>>>>>
    Since Madame Zenda has to be a very good observer, her livelihood depends on it, her predictions ARE going to hit more often then the Climastrologists who are paid to ignore the observable evidence.

    I bet there is a scientific paper in that….

  54. Not a comment on the blog, but on a common misconception, here regarding Jim Hansen.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Hansen

    Hansen worked for the Goddard Institute for Space studies from the late 60’s until last year. He is a PhD physicist at a governmental agency, he did not first have to make up a myth to justify his position. If you follow the process, his background was in remote sensing, planetary studies, atmospheric physics, especially Venus and its runaway greenhouse. It follows that he would connect the dots when increased global temperatures were seen in the 90’s and 2000’s. No conspiracy is required. None is even required to explain the global consensus, because the temperatures did go up. Nothing, even science, takes place without some personal, inadvertent bias. But, try not to be disingenuous.

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