Arctic blast coming to Eastern US – likely to be the coldest opening to calendar spring in at least 50 years

Another massive cold wave headed for Eastern US next week to put temperature 20 degrees below normal

Senior WeatherBell Meteorologist Joe Bastardi commented:

I am 58.. never seen anything close to this for late March.

and

[The] pattern next week has as much extreme potential for the time of the year as I can find. Coldest opening to calender spring in 50 yrs at least.

Weather forecast models such as the ECMWF and NCEP, both of which have had good track records this year in identifying polar vortex outbreaks in advance, are now forecasting a massive cold blast for the beginning of spring. See maps:

NCEP_GFS_ensMean_Mar24

Dr. Ryan Maue commented on this forecast from ECMWF:

ECMWF 12z (WMO-Essential) 850-hPa temperature + wind streams. Final 10-day outcome after 2nd Arctic blast. Brutal.

ECMWF_temp_anomaly_Mar27

He added:

Canadian ensemble system looks like other guidance at 7-days as well. This cake is baked. Arctic blast to end March

If Lake Michigan can open up a bit, then this cold could drop enormous amounts of Lake Effect snow on Lower Peninsula of Michigan.

Canadian_model_mar24

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198 thoughts on “Arctic blast coming to Eastern US – likely to be the coldest opening to calendar spring in at least 50 years

  1. Question for Aanyone at Weatherbell: Because tornadoes are intensified by the clash of cold and dry vs warm and moist, could we expect a more active tornado season?

  2. Um … trying to say this nicely .. having an interesting title day …

    [So, what title is more clear? … “Likely to be the Coldest Spring Equinox in the Past 50 Years” … instead? Mod]

  3. Well, Kerry did say Global Warming was the most important weapon of mass destruction a week or so ago. Meanwhile, the Malaysian jet and Putin kinda showed amateur hour very nicely. Now here comes the next Arctic front as if slapping Kerry upside the head all over again. Karma brother, karma.

  4. Can I vote for the one that’s furthest from where I live?
    (Maybe if I burn a couple of tree rings….?8-)

  5. News like this leaves me conflicted. On the one hand I like to see the cold prove that CO2 does not drive climate and that the “we will all burn” scare is just a scam — but on the other hand I like warm and would love to see about 4C of warming over then next few decades.

    Mankind’s tiny, meager yearly addition to a tiny trace gas has nothing to do with the climate. But the climate will cause increases in CO2 as it warms. What I am not conflicted on is that I would love to see the CO2 levels hit 1500 ppm and help green the planet.

    I guess I am one of those that the philosophy professor in the news wants to round up and execute. :-(

  6. Jim Steele
    “Question for anyone at Weatherbell: Because tornadoes are intensified by the clash of cold and dry vs warm and moist, could we expect a more active tornado season?”

    This requires warm air from somewhere!

  7. I dunno, weather report tor the next 10 days is in the low to high 40’s (F) in my area (New Jersey). Two days will tap the 30’s. Weatherbell map says (if I read correctly) about -17C, or about -1.4F. How is the 850 hPa related to surface temps?

  8. I use oil to heat my house.

    This year has been %#@&*1!!! expensive.

    I finished insulating my basement this fall. $1600.00. Based on what my neighbors have spent on energy, as a percentage over last year, I saved no money. The energy demand for my house was up about $1600.00 this year.

    Some neighbors have energy increases of 20-40% this year. I am at about 0% having insulated 163 feet of basement wall.

  9. The roads here in SE Michigan are just shredded after this winter, I need some warm weather!!

  10. Gerry and Mod,

    Gerry says:
    March 17, 2014 at 2:40 pm

    Um … trying to say this nicely .. having an interesting title day …

    [So, what title is more clear? … “Likely to be the Coldest Spring Equinox in the Past 50 Years” … instead? Mod]
    __________________________

    How about… Beware the Ides of March.

  11. D.J. Hawkins says:
    March 17, 2014 at 3:08 pm

    “How is the 850 hPa related to surface temps?”

    —————————————

    850 hPa is on average about ~ 5000 ft a.s.l.

    Average lapse rate ~ 3.5 deg F per 1000 ft.

    NJ elevation – 500 ft (for the puposes of this exercise

    Surface temp ~ 16 F warmer than 850 hPa

    So, about -1.4 F + 16 = ~~ + 15 F

    …. lots of assumptions in this little calculation, but that will get you in the range

  12. D.J. Hawkins says:
    March 17, 2014 at 3:08 pm

    This is a really good site :

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/

    Type in your location, and go to the 16-day forecast. It prints out a table showing predicted temperatures at different levels in the atmosphere. That should answer your question.

  13. “If Lake Michigan can open up a bit, then this cold could drop enormous amounts of Lake Effect snow on Lower Peninsula of Michigan.”

    1. You don’t need open water for lake effect. It’s just a little better with 32 degree water than 32 degree ice.
    2. Lake Mich lake effect in the fingers of the LP is pretty wimpy compared to the lk erie and — even worse — lk ontario lk effects, both going the long ways of the lakes.

  14. You people have it all wrong. Global warming is still with us. This has been the 50th warmest opening of Spring in the past 50 years.

  15. D.J. Hawkins says:
    March 17, 2014 at 3:08 pm
    I dunno, . . .

    Anomaly in Celsius; 1 C. degree = 1.8 F. degree [ 9/5 ]
    Charts show the departure from “normal” temperature. So, what’s “normal” or “climatology” for your local site?

  16. @Anything is possible says:
    March 17, 2014 at 3:19 pm

    Way cool, thanks! I have no idea what I might need it for, but that one is getting bookmarked! They’re showing slightly lower temps than AccuWeather, so I guess it’s wait and see.

  17. John F. Hultquist says:
    March 17, 2014 at 3:28 pm
    D.J. Hawkins says:
    March 17, 2014 at 3:08 pm
    I dunno, . . . ”

    Anomaly in Celsius; 1 C. degree = 1.8 F. degree [ 9/5 ]
    Charts show the departure from “normal” temperature. So, what’s “normal” or “climatology” for your local site?

    Temperature & Anomoly” if I read the chart heading correctly. It appears the colors are the temperature, the iso-lines are the anomaly.

  18. Magma:

    What if we measured the area affected in terms of Manhattans? Would you be interested then?

  19. The world is down 2.3F in the last two decades. I wonder how much more of the global warming we can take?

  20. Look how warm the Arctic is, though. A quick look at your Sea Ice Page shows it has been unusually warm all winter. That’s not surprising, I guess – some sort of “conservation of anomaly” law at work.

  21. D.J. Hawkins says:
    March 17, 2014 at 3:36 pm

    > “Temperature & Anomoly” if I read the chart heading correctly. It appears the colors are the temperature, the iso-lines are the anomaly.

    Nope, in all three the color is the anomaly in C° and the lines are either temperature (see how it gets warmer to the south) or wind streamlines.

    Me, I’m hoping for another subzero night, like tonight? That will be the latest subzero reading of the season. :-) I’ll have more about local temps after dinner.

  22. Aren’t we a little overdue for another year without a summer , like 1816? Wide spread famine , skyrocketing food prices, damaged crops deaths in the thousands? All we really need is a bigger story than CAGW to put it to bed.

  23. Just a quick question….will this projected Polar Vortex incursion into eastern/ northen states produce the never ending train of atlantic storms crashing into the UK again…particularily my part of south west Wales. If the answer is Yes then please stop the world as I want to get off….been there, experienced that…didnt like it.

  24. Michael D

    Look how warm the Arctic is, though. A quick look at your Sea Ice Page shows it has been unusually warm all winter. That’s not surprising, I guess – some sort of “conservation of anomaly” law at work.

    It’s very simple.

    The circulation that brings Arctic air south, also sends warm air north.

    Because of the kinetic energy involved, Arctic temps tend to rise by much more than they fall at lower latitudes. On a simple averaging system, this means that global temps would rise, but in reality the energy has not changed.

  25. On Lucia’s thread about DC’s comments, Neil J. King (a Skeptical Science team member) made a laughable mistake.

    He dug out his old physics book and used a few equations about energy distribution among molecules, but they were equations that did not take into account the force of gravity. That was the very thing we were talking about, namely how gravity brings about an autonomous thermal gradient (aka lapse rate) in any planet’s troposphere.

    The relevance of all this to climate change is that, firstly, Skeptical Science is stumped, and of course the greenhouse is smashed.

  26. This is also been picked up on the jet stream forecast charts as well.
    It looks like this Arctic blast will be mostly confined to the NE of the USA. As there is a jet stream forming in the eastern Pacific and will flow across the middle of the USA, so is likely to keep the cold air in the NE. But it likely that there will more heavy snow and rain, as this jet draws moist air off the Pacific.

  27. The worst snowstorms in my area of Michigan comes when it warms from a deep cold spell. So far this year, we’ve had no big storms, but a whole lot of very cold air, and those maps puts us right smack dab in the middle of another big freeze. Gee, I can’t wait. No sight of Robins, and the ducks that dive for food in lakes are dying in large numbers. Strange how global warming works.

    Right now the river near us is like glass; almost makes me want to dig out the ice skates but they won’t fit me anyway. There are quite a few out there skating, reminds me of Hans Brinker :)

    In 1994/1995 we had lots of ice into April, then a very hot summer (104 in the U.P.). I wonder if that will repeat this year.

  28. There’s quite a bit of warmer air rotating into the arctic, behind each wave of polar cold that slides down across Canada and skates into the US. As a result, Arctic ice coverage is rather ‘low’ this spring….

    Is this how a glaciation age starts? With a warmer arctic allowing more water evaporation and transport onto a cold North American continent? Could the Bering Sea, Arctic ocean, Hudson Bay, et.al be the ultimate ‘lake effect snow’ machine, that feeds the continent engulfing glacier?

  29. Michael D says: @ March 17, 2014 at 4:00 pm

    Look how warm the Arctic is, though…..
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    And all that ‘Warm’ just got tossed into outer space.

    Of more interest was the entire 2013 summer was below ‘Normal’ in temp.

  30. WelshSkeptic@
    Looking at the jet stream forecast chart.
    It looks at there will be high pressure sitting very near to the UK, when this is forecast to happen.
    So hopefully it will shied us from the worst of the bad weather.

  31. P.S. Going geo-thermal in 2010 has really paid off for us. Our highest heating (includes hot water) was $90.31.

  32. Mac the Knife says: @ March 17, 2014 at 4:33 pm
    ….Is this how a glaciation age starts? …
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>
    The Laurentide Ice Sheet was the same ‘shape’ as the polar express….

  33. Could it be possible that topical warm air rushing towards the poles bring moisture and warmth to these regions as part of a self regulating system for the planet? So cold air gets shoved towards the tropics and there in lies the rub… weather! Storms, rains, snows etc, and all the while solar radiance is warming on the day side and radiant cooling occurs on the night side of the planet. So why would warm intrusions to the poles be anomolous? Seems perfectly normal. What is interesting to me is the idea of feedback loops where say more heat gerts radiated out to space than is trapped in the oceans or atmosphere, for this to occur we need lots of clear night time skys over vast areas of earth. Counter to this idea is vast warm low level cloud cover and sluggish trade winds and I bet surface temps spike. The winter here in the Catskills of NY has been brutal. Many old timers don’t recall quite as relentless a winter with sustained cold. Snow yes. We get lots of snow here historically. My maple trees are just getting going with sap and by this time I am usually done with sugaring. And another polar vortex , yikes! Many folks here ran out of firewood, wood cutters like me couldn’t get out and cut untill just a few days ago. My body is tired from just trying to keep warm. I am impressed with this winter. WOW

  34. I’m thinking of suing Al Gore et al for False Advertising and Fraud.

    We were promised Global Warming and I was looking forward to living life a bit tropical instead of polar. I could’ve moved to Florida but NOOOOOO, I believed them when they said the Earth was getting warmer and would keep on getting warmer. More fool I.

    Who do I apply to or where do I go to complain?

  35. BUT DID THEY LISTEN IN 2002 WHEN I PREDICTED GLOBAL COOLING?

    NOOOOOOO !!!

    :-)

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/03/07/jli-final-forecasts-for-2014/#comment-1585141

    I cannot make short term predictions of weather / temperature.

    I can only make long term predictions – about 15- 20 years or more. :-)

    I wrote in an article in the Calgary Herald published on September 1, 2002:

    On global cooling:
    “If (as I believe) solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”

    When I wrote this in 2002, SC 24 was predicted to be strong, and we now know it is quite weak.

    I still think my 2002 global cooling prediction will materialize, although I wonder if this cooling will start a bit sooner than 2020.

    ********

  36. Tim says regards possible greater tornado season?
    “This requires warm air from somewhere!”

    As the sun marches northward and warms the land in creates low that draws warm moist air from the gulf. In the southern states tornado season typically is the greatest starting in March, as the season progress warm air can migrate further north. Cold air provides the lift for the warm air masses, (not Trenberth’s warmer and wetter world.) Cold air migrates faster when the ground is cold and snow covered, and that intensifies the clash. I would suspect that the colder and snowier ground from this late winter could induce more tornadoes, similar to last year and the Moore OK tornado. In contrast the warm dry winter during the drought 2010-11 witnessed a dearth of tornados. The seasonal drivers of warm air moving northward should be similar each year, but I suspect intensity of the clash of air masses will be driven by how easily cold air moves southward. I am not a meteorologist, but based on observations and my limited knowledge, that is what I am suspecting.

  37. Allan M.R. MacRae says:” I still think my 2002 global cooling prediction will materialize, although I wonder if this cooling will start a bit sooner than 2020.”

    I too think the sun is the main driver but it is coupled to ocean oscillations that alternately absorb heat and then ventilate it two decades or more later. I too predicted we will see colder winters over the next 2 decades as the sun’s activity declines, but I think the real natural definitive experiment will be when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation reverts back to its warm, heat ventilating cycle with more El Ninos. If The sun is the driver of global temps, then during that warm PDO cycle will should temperatures that remain below the plateau of the current hiatus. If CO2 is the driver then we will need to see even greater temperatures. Nature is providing the requisite experiment to test the competing hypotheses.

  38. Note how the center of the cold blast is right over New Hampshire! We’re probably going to break another low temperature record tonight (-11 F is the forecast low). Time to turn up the pellet stove…

  39. Anthony, please refrain from “normal” regarding weather variables and say average. What ever the weather is for a given day is normal.

  40. Is this peer reviewed?

    Real science says Greenland is melting and that means global warming is going on faster everywhere else.

    /sarc

  41. Crap, that means our Northern visitors who invade us in Florida are not going to leave anytime soon. I can see it now. Global Warming “Cold” makes tourists extend vacations in the sunshine state………… Oh my!

  42. “I am 58.. never seen anything close to this for late March.”
    You were born 10 years too late. Go talk to a 70 year old construction worker or farmer.

  43. It’s colder than a witch’s tit here in NE Oregon. Yet the farmers are doing their best to belch out CO2 from produce storages. See, when veggies like potatoes sit in storage warehouses, they build up CO2, which isn’t good for keeping those things fresh, so the automatic systems purge that CO2 by ventilating it out into the air. That’s a lot of CO2 given the number of storage warehouses around here. Yet, we are all nipply out here on the frontier! Wouldn’t it be ironic if potato storage systems belching CO2 out into the air around here demonstrate that CO2 does NOT measurably warm the climate, thus “nipping CO2 global warming in the bud” so to speak.

  44. Dave Tolerisk of Weather Risk was talking about that this past weekend. And the coastal low that is supposed to form with it as well.

    ANother snow storm! So far, 18 this season (that is a record), but the total snow is average (see Mid Atlantic Dry slot).

  45. Gail Combs says:
    March 17, 2014 at 4:44 pm

    Great link !

    This observation has not gone un-noticed in the past. Back in the late 70’s when the alarming claim was “the ice age is coming” , I recall a similar map & similar thought process being rolled out.
    Funny how the alarmists aren’t rolling that one out this time around …

  46. Pamela Gray says:
    March 17, 2014 at 6:15 pm

    ————–

    You may be on to something. I wonder how many rotting potatoes it takes to equal an F150 in CO2 output, insert time scale here.

    How many potatoes does the globe use daily anyhow, let alone the polluting potatoes.

    Willis?

  47. Okay. I have found the reason why we are so damn cold! If reducing greenhouse gases will keep Oregon cool, we need to tell this Oregon commission that if they are going to advertise that they have a handle on the thermostat, all they need to do is to tell these same industries they are monitoring to start pumping out CO2 instead of reducing it! That way they can keep Oregon’s temperature right where we like it best.

    As for what we like best, majority rules, so we should pass a referendum to demand that this commission regulate these industries in such a way as to keep our thermostat at just the right temperature (if they can keep it cool, they can damn well keep it warm). In Winter I want it snowy and cold in the mountains and warm in the valleys. Spring, Summer and Fall should also be perfect.

    http://www.keeporegoncool.org/content/tracking-emissions

    Logic. She is such a bitch, but she is my bitch.

  48. ossqss says:
    March 17, 2014 at 5:56 pm

    Crap, that means our Northern visitors who invade us in Florida are not going to leave anytime soon. I can see it now. Global Warming “Cold” makes tourists extend vacations in the sunshine state………… Oh my!
    ==========================================================================
    As long as they keep spending their money who cares.

  49. JeffL@
    Its been a interest of mine to understand what was going on weather wise during the ice age.
    And for me this winter has filled in some of the pieces of the puzzle.
    Am as certain as you can be, that the winter America has had was just of a type that would of been happening during the ice. But the key difference between then and now l think is the fact that we now have a strong Azores high pressure pattern over the Atlantic. Which blocks the jet stream from going zonal across the Atlantic when it take’s a dive to the south over the USA.
    This suggests to me that the Azores high was weaker and less stable over the north Atlantic during the ice age then it is now.

  50. I live in Tucson Arizona for a reason. This is it. I plan on riding my bike, and/or running some trails every day for the next 3 months. When the temps get too high I’ll just swim in my 82F pool.

    I suffered through 9 years in Boston getting PhD and Postdoc and 2 years in England 85-87 ( no summers). Never again. Polar vortex? Ha! Drought? I already live in a desert adapted climate.

    And the GIGO climate models say a warmer earth is a wetter earth. Bring it on.

  51. Loosely related to matters of cold and heat in the USA:

    if, as is proposed by some, the US responds to the Russian annexation of Crimea by removing restrictions on the export of US gas, this will eventually raise US domestic energy prices (one LNG receiving facilities are developed in Europe).

    That would permanently remove a significant strategic advantage that Russia currently wields in its dealings with Europe, and in particular remove some of the leverage that their supply of gas to Germany gives them. However, it would be at some potential cost to the US consumer either shivering through winter in the north or sweating through summer.

    I wonder how people in the US feel about this trade off, and how politically sensitive it would be?

    There may of course be a further advantage to the US from freeing up energy exports:

    The theoretical US energy independence that some hope may come from the exploitation of shale oil and shale gas resources is actually illusory at the moment. That is because these resources are extremely costly to explore, develop and exploit (their EROEI – ‘Energy Return on Energy Invested’- is absolutely minimal in comparison to that of the traditional conventional oil and gas production that has driven US economic growth for most of the past 100 years). And importantly, the production decline curves of the very costly and specialised wells hat must be drilled to exploit these ‘tight’ shale reservoirs are far steeper than those of traditional wells drilled into traditional reservoirs, so you have to keep on drilling more and more costly ‘fracked, horizontal’ wells just to keep the production rate up. This new technology therefore has some way to go before the dream of energy independence actually becomes a reality, if it ever does.

    What is urgently needed then, to encourage companies to improve the tight-reservoir exploitation technology and progress towards genuine US energy independence, is an increase in in the US domestic gas price.

    So there would seem to be some fairly compelling reasons to lift the US export ban, though possibly at some cost to the economic recovery and some pain to domestic and industrial consumers.

    The sight of another gigantic mass of freezing air heading south does rather focus the mind on the domestic political realities involved!

    (Speaking as a West Australian, who has just sat out another endless 40C+ summer, of recurring $1,000 bills to put desalinated water on the lawn and air-condition the house using electric power generated from what gas we get after most of it has gone into LNG for export to Asia)

  52. ossqss wrote in reply to Pamela Grey:
    March 17, 2014 at 6:27 pm:

    You may be on to something. I wonder how many rotting potatoes it takes to equal an F150 in CO2 output, insert time scale here.

    How many potatoes does the globe use daily anyhow, let alone the polluting potatoes.
    —————–

    Aw come on, ossqss! First off, what type of potatoes? Russets? Golden? Reds? Yellows? Blues? Ya gots to be a bit more specific. And what type of Ford F150? Which engine? With or without AC? With or without towing package? Which rims and tires?

    And as for how many potatoes a day, do you want a yearly average or daily? Ever try to get into a Waffle House on a Sunday? A truck load of hash browns on Sundays. Mondays are pick your favorite seat and they won’t do a bushel worth of hash browns all day.

    The “polluting” from the storage of spuds ain’t anywhere near the methane putter gases from all them hash browns, either.

  53. @Larry Kirk –

    The prerequisite to exporting natural gas to Europe is to get rid of impediments to drilling on public lands and against fracking. If these are done there would be enough natgas to export without raising domestic prices significantly. New York has paid for its fracking ban with short supplies and high prices during this particularly cruel winter.

    The sad part of all this is that to restore sanity to climate science, we need the alarmists to get their butts kicked by continued cold and continued failure of their models and their prognostications – but the price for that is suffering, especially by lower-income people. Damned if we do, damned if we don’t.

    Of course this administration will do what it can to block energy development of all kinds, except the net energy loss varieties (“renewables”). I’m going to stop writing before I go off on too long of an obscene tirade against those people.

  54. My Grandfathers diary for April 17th 1930, “a foot of snow and drifts today”, he was a farmer in southwestern Ontario Canada. It was the beginning of the dirty thirties and drought, although southwestern Ontario had very little drought compared to many other parts of this continent.

  55. Brrrr, indeed Bob T!….
    anyway, just so we’re clear that all this Cold has nothing, repeat nothing at all to do with us now going through what appears as the weakest, most pathetic (in terms of flare strength, earth-facing flare occurrence) Solar Maximum in the last….ummm…400 years…ummm…since the Maunder Minimum onset. Or phrased differently, a Grand Minimum Cometh….

    Nothing to see here, move along, pay your carbon taxes.

    Seriously, we (maybe just maybe) should be on a civilizational global push for building out equatorial food production, both land and sea-based. There’s nothing to say this ISN’T the Big One – rather than just a very deadly couple of decades of well below normal temps world-wide. Fortune favours the prepared, and were it not for the CAGW trashing of, y’know, data, that is to say evidence, … we might be in a position to scientifically convince the general population to park our weaponry for a little while and get down to a bit of society spanning survivalist activity.
    Makes one (well, me) wonder about the IPCC being one of the ‘sub-plots’ in the UN Agenda 21 to destroy all confidence in science (aka: – evidence) via the Great Warming Fiasco.

    This guy’s (Rolfe Witzsche) maybe been ahead of the curve for quite a while: – [say what you will it’s worth at least a quick read – automated thin-wall basalt fiber platforms holding fresh water for food production)]

    http://www.ice-age-ahead-iaa.ca/world_development.html

  56. From just north of Concord NH, and consider winter a waste if it doesn’t go below zero Fahrenheit at least once each winter. (-18° C.) This year is more than a bit ridiculous, it’s a record setting in my rather short record:

    Past seasons and number of subzero days:

    03/04: 14 (11! in a frigid January, 3 in mid February.)
    04/05: 12
    05/06: 2
    06/07: 8 (year 2006 had no subzero low, 2007 had 4 in March)
    07/08: 3 (2 in January, 1 in February, normalcy)
    08/09: 9 (-17.5F on January 16th, brr.)
    09/10: 1 (and that was -0.8F on January 30th)
    10/11: 9
    11/12: 3 (all in January)
    12/13: 3 (all in January)
    13/14: 15 (1 in December, 6 in January, 4 in February, 4 in March (so far!))

    The forecast tonight is for -2° F, but I doubt we’ll make it. Would be nice, it would be the latest sub-zero temp I’ve recorded. Hey, if it’s going to be extreme, it might as well set a record.

  57. Gail Combs says:
    March 17, 2014 at 4:44 pm
    The Laurentide Ice Sheet was the same ‘shape’ as the polar express….

    Gail,
    Thanks for the link! I have recollections of similar information presented during the mid/late 70’s “ice age is coming” period. I lived in central Wisconsin then… and the winter of 78-79 was epic! This winter (so my relatives that still live there tell me) was a real close second….
    Mac

  58. meanwhile, Down Under:

    18 March: Qld Country Life: Kate Stark: Meat and greet: carbon bus tour
    THE words ‘bus tour’ don’t usually seem to inspire much of a reaction from me but shove the word ‘carbon’ in the sentence and curiosity starts to build.
    Before I know it I’ve been very willingly wrangled into joining the Future Farmers Network northern ‘carbon bus’ tour – travelling the back roads west of Townsville on a mission – a mission that could potentially save the world…
    As part of the tour, I have also been given the opportunity to document the Young Carbon Farmers ‘maiden voyage’ in a series of blogs. But where to begin when we haven’t actually begun?
    Sitting in the foyer, tapping away, I start to think about all the fun (dear boss, when I say ‘fun’ I mean ‘educational experiences’) things the group are going to get to do today.
    First up we’ll be heading to Lansdown Research Station where Snow Barlow, professor at the University of Melbourne, will give us a run-down on carbon farming. This guy is all kinds of smart and I’m just waiting for the perfect opportunity to chat with him and figure out how we can save the planet, together.
    Oh geez, he just sat down next to me, he’s super excited too! He reckons we need to decrease methane emissions not only because it will be great for the environment but methane in itself is actually energy for the animal and if we can reduce the output, we can increase the energy. Mind. Blown…

    http://www.queenslandcountrylife.com.au/news/agriculture/general/opinion/meat-and-greet-carbon-bus-tour/2691978.aspx

  59. I’ve nothing to add, other than I was hoping that tonight’s -5 was going to be the last sub-zero temps we got this year in Northernmost Vermont…

    Hope in one hand and poop in the other. Guess which fills up faster?

    It has been a long and very cold winter.

  60. Gawd, I hope those anti-Keystone idiots are still protesting and it gets down to -20C with wind gusts up to 50kph. Better yet, they’ve tied themselves to the WH fence and in that intense global warming, the cops fingers are so frozen they can’t them loose for several days.

  61. Not sure where you get this warm arctic nonsense, Arctic bay is -34 and the north pole is -40 right now. Am I missing something?

  62. Mick -24 F is very cold. Rug up and eat plenty of carbohydrates, and put coats on your doggies, and cats. All you need is a dam good electricity fail, and it is serious.

  63. No deg C . Still seasonal for mid March? I am on the south west coast of BC it was cold here today . About 8 deg C . Usually we would have had spring conditions by now. Still too cold at night to put my palms outside. We may get more frost yet.

  64. Well we are going low at night, about 10 C, and we are in early autumn. But it goes up to 25-26 C in the daytime. Yes I am watching my outside plants and bonsai as some are succulents. I have a palm too, it was a $10 pot plant, 13 years ago. Put it out in the front garden, now it is a giant of a thing, with really hard stems with sharp almost like razor wire on them. A cotton palm. It does manage the cold. Oh- I live in Armidale, North Western NSW, on the Northern Tablelands, 3500 ft absl. We occasionally get snow. But regular hoar frost. You know if there is cloud cover, frost doesn’t settle.

  65. Mick says:
    March 17, 2014 at 9:05 pm
    “Not sure where you get this warm arctic nonsense, Arctic bay is -34 and the north pole is -40 right now. Am I missing something?

    Have a look at this graph:

    If you start at the main page you can look at previous years:

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.php

    Years are listed on the left. The blue horizontal line is 0° C. or 32° F.

  66. Bruiser, minus 92C, this must be a record low. It’s not even winter there yet? Poor little King Penquins.

  67. So, Pamela Gray, how can it be so darn chilly up in Wallowa County, while it’s so balmy 200 miles away in Frenchglen in Harney County? We could use some rain and snow!

  68. “Is this how a glaciation age starts?”

    Yes. Does this mean we are entering one? No. We are getting a taste of the pattern. There have been many tastes before as evidenced by historic pictures of Niagara Falls. My suspicion is that the polar warming has more to do with the displacement of the “vortex” than the opening up of lake effect off the Arctic Ocean and Hudson Bay, and that the moisture source for North American glaciation is the Gulf. But that is just my suspicion and yours may wind up being correct. Keep thinking. It’s a beautiful thing.

  69. A massive cold wave?

    After this interminable winter, what’s another bit of cold; though, at this stage, I wouldn’t call it massive … just call it another outbreak of polar air.

    The real question so far is … how late in May will it snow in Buffalo? Do I hear a bid for June?

  70. All the global warming heat is still there, it’s now hiding in outer space.

    It formed this great big giant fireball that’s really really hot, like an atom bomb or something.

    You cannot see it at night because it hides and collects more CO2 and waits until morning and then it comes out and makes EVERYTHING hot. I’ve noticed that it’s staying out a little later each day.

    I think we should build a space ship and go investigate this fireball, but we’ll have to go at night when it’s sleeping.

  71. Any farmers out there?

    What will this do to the Canadian/north-USA grain growing season? I imagine the ground will remain frozen/un-plantable for another month. Can you still grow a grain crop when the season is a month shorter than normal?

    Thanks.

  72. the co2 debate will be won by those who have an edge in long range forecasting which the co2ers say is impossible but which people are having success at. If the co2ers cannot long range forecast but others can then what does that say about the co2ers level of knowledge of weather processes?

  73. For any of you who do not know, the National Weather Service now recalculates weather “normals” the first year of each decade by averaging the readings from the previous 30 years. So “normals” are in fact nothing more than fairly short term averages. I agree with the posters who urge us to not use the term “normal” but always write of the average.

  74. We are in a cycle of weak polar vortex, which will last until 2040. Low solar activity strengthens the braking effect of the polar vortex.

  75. With all these weather records being broken the [suspicion] will arise that the climate is on some sort of performance enhancing substance…

  76. bushbunny says:
    March 17, 2014 at 10:25 pm
    Bruiser, minus 92C, this must be a record low. It’s not even winter there yet? Poor little King Penquins.

    I doubt whether many penguins climb the 4,000m to get there though!

  77. Hans Erren
    Just checked Amsterdam temps for NOV, DEC 2013 and JAN 2014…out of 90 days one was above 10C. You guys must be tough because that sure looks like winter to me!

  78. Friday March 30th is obviously time to hold an early spring Senate debate with the windows open and the heating off, to discuss the perils of global warming. This could be followed by a lunch outside in shirt sleeves for those that remain unconvinced of the runaway warming.

  79. John Coleman says:
    March 18, 2014 at 1:16 am

    For any of you who do not know, the National Weather Service now recalculates weather “normals” the first year of each decade by averaging the readings from the previous 30 years. So “normals” are in fact nothing more than fairly short term averages. I agree with the posters who urge us to not use the term “normal” but always write of the average.

    Not only all that, but it is extremely rare (i.e. abnormal) for the high and low of a temperate continental site to exactly match that average. In many cases during the winter it’s more likely for one of those to be 5 degrees below average if we’re in a NW air flow or 5 degrees below average if we’re in a SW air flow.

    BTW, no subzero day today. It only got down to 6F, bummer.

  80. Due to this winters’ extreme cold, with many snowstorms traveling much further south than usual, which looks to continue into Spring, outbreaks of severe cognitive dissonance from the True Believers is very likely. Chanting their Warmist mantras over and over, and repeated visits to “science” sites like SkS and RC may help keep their heads from going off like mini-hiroshimas, but only temporarily.
    It will be a travesty.

  81. WE had similar in England in 2013. March, April and May were way colder than average. I didn’t plant main crop potatoes until June 9th, which is ridiculous for SE England.

    No sign yet that this year will be similar: all the fruit trees, vegetables and flowers are weeks ahead.

    An arctic blast could kill a lot of them very effectively, of course…….

  82. Winter’s icy grip is threatening our (U.S.) national pastime!

    White Sox: No easy task preparing U.S. Cellular for opener http://www.csnchicago.com/white-sox/white-sox-no-easy-task-preparing-us-cellular-opener

    The grounds crew is busily trying to thaw out the field in time for the March 31 Opening Day game between the White Sox and the Twins. (Why in the world Major League Baseball insists on having cold-weather teams play home games so early in the season is beyond me. Though they did schedule my beloved Yankees to open up in Houston . . . thanks, MLB!)

  83. Ric Werme says:
    March 18, 2014 at 4:36 am
    John Coleman says:
    March 18, 2014 at 1:16 am

    Most people will take “average” to be “mean.” Or something more fuzzy. When the NWS reports a temperature relative to “normal” it is clear what is meant, or should be. If you tell me a temperature is above or below average I will not know if you have given me an anecdotal report or if you have used a station record of 22 years, or 65 years, or . . .
    Your “average” is not defined.
    So every time you write “average” you will have to define it.
    No thanks.

  84. Maue needs to climb down out of his ivory tower and present his data in a more comprehensible fashion. He could start by using the F scale rather then the C scale for temperature. If he won’t, …. on him.

  85. ***
    jim Steele says:
    March 17, 2014 at 5:21 pm
    ***

    Jim, seems like last year (IIRC). Lots of cold air, but little moist, humid air in the Gulf coastal areas to spawn violent weather.

  86. The Gore effect is taking place. The more the leftist democratic commies promote their AGW/CO2 scam the colder it gets. And that’s the truth.

  87. From article, “Senior WeatherBell Meteorologist Joe Bastardi commented:

    I am 58.. never seen anything close to this for late March.”

    So, is what this senior meteorologist saying is that this whole weather perspective is to be started at his date of birth?

    I’d be curious to know how many climate changes the Earth HAS gone through already over the course of the Earth’s existence and how man and his technology contributed to those as well.

    http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html

  88. I’m 50 and at least here in Western NY this winter is very much the same as when I was growing up. My family would go to Florida every Easter vacation, it was nice leaving the snow and 30 degree temps for a couple weeks but it was just as nice to return and catch the last of the April skiing.

  89. To Gerry’s post from yesterday: The term “calendar spring” refers to the actual calendar day that spring begins (i.e. spring equinox). Meteorologists have been using the term “meterological spring” to refer to the psychological beginning (or climactic change of season) of spring (usually March 1). Hence, the specific usage in the title. FYI.

  90. what I have to say about this never-ending nightmare of a winter consists mainly of four-letter words…

  91. Clearly due to global warming, climate change and the carbon dioxide emitting evils including all breathing mammals on the planet… don’t bring up the fact that plant life needs carbon dioxide to live. The debate is over.

  92. If all coal, oil and natural gas on the planet is burned, it will only be putting CO2 back to where it was originally. It is just starting over. The earth plant life will be happy. Let’s work to making the earth happy.

  93. Okay shouldn’t we start calling this “global cooling” and not “global warming”? Yeah, yeah, “climate change” is the new term – but we all know there’s really nothing new here since climate change is essential and cyclical and natural. So what happened to the dying polar bears and the other critters? What bunk!

  94. Meanwhile over here in my corner of Europe: warmest winter since weather has been recorded. First known winter without a day averaging below freezing. March has broken as series of high temperature records. Climate skeptics are silent on the matter.
    Y’all were saying?

  95. Can’t wait to see the global-warming people’s response to this. Their twisted logic tends to be hilarious–i.e. it’s freezing cold because it’s warm (Note to self: during this summer’s inevitable heat wave, turn the heat up as high as it’ll go so the house will cool off . . .)

  96. Yup it has to be global warming causing all this cold. I have just paid the biggest heating bill I have ever paid. I shudder to think how much more it would be if we actually had global cooling!

  97. What is Joe Bastardi talking about. On March 25 2013 in Philadelphia the high was 38 degrees. Temps are very similar to last year at this time.

  98. I feel a need to drive my SUV around the block a few times– we obviously need more CO2 than we have at present. The Earth Liberation Front should be burning down Prius dealerships, not Hummers.

  99. Spring is arriving earlier and earlier. Snowfalls are just a thing of the past. The climate is certainly changing and this is why the debate is stretching out for such a long time, climate is generally accepted as 30 years or more of weather data. The world is cooling (slightly), but then that’s climate change, slowly but surely.

  100. You don’t hear much from Al Gore and his band of pseudo-scientist much anymore, do ya’???

  101. Erwin Blonk says:
    March 18, 2014 at 2:37 pm
    Meanwhile over here in my corner of Europe: warmest winter since weather has been recorded. First known winter without a day averaging below freezing. March has broken as series of high temperature records. Climate skeptics are silent on the matter.
    Y’all were saying?

    For introspective white-man-fortress Europe, Europe warming = global warming. So let the Germans Europeans go on happily believing in global warming, along with genetically modified food and nuclear power being deadly, fracking causing supervolcanoes, all materials apart from grass, mud and spit being artificial and dangerous and all their other comforting medieval superstitious beliefs.

  102. If the temperatures were in Fahrenheit, the charts would make more sense to the average Person.

  103. The only “deniers” are the Manmade Global Warming alarmists who deny that the Earth is COOLING.

  104. Why is chemical spraying that goes on daily across the US from rural to metro, never ever mentioned as a possible culprit? It’s hard for the land to warm up if clouds are artificially made and block out the sun every day. And for those that don’t seem to notice the constant daily spraying overhead and think this is some sort of normal occurrence, please visit Weather Modification Inc at their website, or check them out on youtube. And tesla was working on weather mod 100 years ago, you think it has never been figured out then I have some land in the pacific for sale.

    [This isn’t a chemtrails post, is it? ~mod.]

  105. Nothing screams Weather Manipulation quite like this horrifying winter!! I don’t know about the rest of you but I for one am getting more than fed-up with being treated like a lab rat for the sick, twisted, mentally unstable idiots who think, for some strange reason, they control us! Maybe in their disgusting planning they forgot to count how many there is of us versus them! If they think they’re safe from Karma they didn’t think to far ahead!

  106. Weather is a tricky thing, what used to be called microclimates should be called brokenclimates. We’re not headed into the ice ages we’re headed into the dark ages. The politicians downfall. When people remember they don’t believe any of the political climate crap. I’d love a warmer climate, bring it on.

  107. the weatherman has never saw nothing like this because they are manipulating the weather now like they did with the super bowl. In the middle of an artic blast it warmed to 50 degrees for the game and started snowing 3 hours after the game

  108. Oh, Al? Al? Hey, where’s Al? I guess he flew off to some warm place in his fuel-guzzling private jet… to count the quarter of a Billion dollars he’s made off his scam so far.

  109. Meanwhile the Whitehouse insist the problem is warming. They don’t believe because they don’t pay the heating bill-WE DO! I JUST HAD THE HIGHEST HEATING BILL IN MY LIFE!

  110. Where were you in ’77 or ’93 or ’95 Joe? I can remember negative temps and blizzards from each of those years. Drama queen…

  111. (C)hocoholic – It’s still there just as it has been for as long as we’ve been able to detect it. And all indications are that it’s a long term natural phenomenon which explains why the weather Nazis have neglected it in their diatribes, they don’t like facts that dispute their fantasies.

  112. Has anyone checked out HAARP lately?
    See what THAT is capable of.
    Real scary stuff indeed. One more secretive government site.

    REPLY: Why yes, we HAVE checked it out lately. Normally, by site policy, I don’t allow discussion of HAARP conspiracy theory, (because, you know, insane) but let me take this opportunity to point out to you and your fellow nutters that HAARP is CLOSED:

    Extreme irony – EPA rules shut down the mother of all weather conspiracy theories

    So no, HAARP has no effect on the current weather, and never could have since the amounts of energy it emits into the atmosphere is several orders of magnitude lower than a single common summer thunderstorm.

    Do try to keep up. – Anthony

    (now we wait for the inevitable: “closed? that’s what they WANT you to think)

  113. According to a scientific article from Stanford University, “GLOBAL WARMING: A Boon to Humans and Other Animals”, http://www.stanford.edu/~moore/Boon_To_Man.html, Thomas Gale Moore, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, (the complete version was published later in 1995 in the Hoover Institution Working Paper series), around 6,000 years ago the earth sustained temperatures that were probably more than four degrees Fahrenheit hotter than those of the twentieth century, yet mankind flourished. The Sahara desert bloomed with plants, and water loving animals such as hippopotamuses wallowed in rivers and lakes. Dense forests carpeted Europe from the Alps to Scandinavia. The Midwest of the United States was somewhat drier than it is today, similar to contemporary western Kansas or eastern Colorado; but Canada enjoyed a warmer climate and more rainfall.

    From around 800 A.D. to 1200 or 1300, the globe warmed considerably and civilization prospered. This Little Climate Optimum generally displays, although less distinctly, many of the same characteristics as the first climate optimum.[100] Virtually all of northern Europe, the British Isles, Scandinavia, Greenland, and Iceland were considerably warmer than at present. The Mediterranean, the Near East, and North Africa, including the Sahara, received more rainfall than they do today.[101] North America enjoyed better weather during most of this period. China during the early part of this epoch experienced higher temperatures and a more clement climate. From Western Europe to China, East Asia, India, and the Americas, mankind flourished as never before.

    Evidence for the medieval warming comes from contemporaneous reports on weather conditions, from oxygen isotope measurements taken from the Greenland ice, from upper tree lines in Europe, and from sea level changes. These all point to a more benign, warmer, climate with more rainfall but because of more evaporation less standing water. Not only did northern Europe enjoy more rainfall but the Mediterranean littoral was wetter. An early twelfth century bridge with twelve arches which still exists over the river Oreto at Palermo exceeds the needs of the small trickle of water that flows there now.[102] According to Arab geographers two rivers in Sicily that are too small for boats were navigable during this period.[103] In England at the same time, medieval water mills on streams that today carry too little water to turn them attest to greater rainfall. Although England apparently received more rainfall than in modern times, the warm weather led to more drying out of the land. Support for a more temperate climate in central Europe comes from the period in which German colonists founded villages. As average temperatures rose people established towns at higher elevations. Early settlements were under 650 feet in altitude; those from a later period were between 1,000 and 1,300 feet high; and those built after 1,100 were located above 1,300 feet.[104]

    H. H. Lamb counted manuscript reports of flooding and wet years in Italy.[105] He discovered that starting in the latter part of the tenth century, the number of wet years climbed steadily, reaching a peak around 1300. Over the same period northern Europe was enjoying warmer and more clement weather. Not only was the temperature higher than now in Europe during the twelfth and thirteenth century but the population enjoyed mild wet winters. In the Mediterranean it was moist as well with summer thunderstorms frequently reported.[106]

    Studies have shown that some areas became drier during these centuries. In particular, the Caspian Sea was apparently four meters — over 13 feet — lower from the ninth through the eleventh century than currently.[107] After 1200 A.D. the elevation of the lake rose sharply for the next two or three hundred years.[108] In the Asian steppes, warm periods with fine summers and often little snow in the winter produced lake levels that were low by modern standards.[109] A recent study of tree rings in California’s Sierra Nevada and Patagonia concluded that the “Golden State” suffered from extreme droughts from around 900 to 1100 and again from 1210 to 1350 while the tip of South America during the first 200 years also enjoyed little precipitation.[110]

    The timing of the medieval warm spell, which lasted no more than 300 years, was not synchronous around the globe. For much of North America, for Greenland and in Russia, the climate was warmer between 950 and 1200.[111] The warmest period in Europe appears to have been later, roughly between 1150 and 1300, although parts of the tenth century were quite warm. Evidence from New Zealand indicates peak temperatures from 1200 to 1400. Data on the Far East is meager but mixed. Judging from the number of severe winters reported by century in China, the climate was somewhat warmer than normal in the ninth, tenth, and eleventh centuries, cold in the twelfth and thirteenth and very cold in the fourteenth. Chinese scholar Chu Ko-chen reports that the eighth and ninth centuries were warmer and received more rainfall, but that the climate deteriorated significantly in the twelfth century.[112] He found records, however, that show that the first half of the thirteenth century was quite clement and very cold weather returned in the fourteenth century.[113] Another historian found on the basis of records of major floods and droughts that between the ninth and eleventh century China suffered much fewer of these calamities than during the fourteenth through the seventeenth.[114] The evidence for Japan is based on records of the average April day on which the cherry trees bloomed in the royal gardens in Kyoto. From this record, the tenth century springs were warmer than normal; in the eleventh century they were cooler; the twelfth century experienced the latest springs; the thirteenth century was average and then the fourteenth was again colder than normal.[115] This record suggests that the Little Climate Optimum began in Asia in the eighth or ninth centuries and continued into the eleventh. The warm climate moved west, reaching Russia and central Asia in the tenth through the eleventh, and Europe from the twelfth to the fourteenth. Some climatologists have theorized that the Mini Ice Age also started in the Far East in the twelfth century and spread westward reaching Europe in the fourteenth.[116]

  114. Are you people seriously advancing the idea of climate manipulation? Really? And I did not realize there were still people out there who don’t understand that “global warming” is an average and it causes extreme weather, both hot and cold, wet and dry. This comments section reads like an Onion article making fun of Americans.

  115. I wonder how much of this cold can be attributed to the EPA reduction of coal burning power plants in the middle of the country???

  116. Jason is correct. Nobody here commenting has any qualifications, and 97% of climate scientists, you know, the people who study the climate as their ENTIRE CAREER are saying that it’s real, and man-made.

    If you went to the doctor, and he said there’s a 97% chance that dark spot on your x-ray is cancer, wouldn’t you take him seriously? Or would you tell him that he’s part of a global conspiracy to get you on cancer drugs?

    Also to whoever said climate change is the religion of the stupid, I feel sorry for you that you have no idea how stupid that statement reads. Religion is the religion of the stupid. Pretending there’s a magic man in the clouds watching over your every move, reading your thoughts and such, THAT’S stupid. Also you have no evidence to back your claim, unlike climate scientists.

    Everyone here denying global warming should realize they’re just stooges for the fossil fuel industry. Even if you don’t believe in man-made climate change, don’t you want cleaner air and water? Isn’t that something you can support?

    • @Christopher hitchens – how someone can be wrong with every word they write.

      #1 – Everyone here has qualifications. Some may be more impressive than others, but everyone here has a brain and the powers of observation (with the possible exception of yourself).
      #2 – 97% of no one has said anything. Again, you use a figure pulled out of a nether region and quote it like a fact. It is not a fact. The ONLY thing you can say about the Doran Zimmerman study is that 75 of 77 people polled (there is no guarantee they are scientists in climate or any other area) – out of over 10,000 – agreed with a statement that supports the AGW meme. It is not scientific, nor is it “qualified” to be used for anything more than a bird cage liner.

      • Science is not a popularity contest. There have been many major breakthroughs when the conscious of scientist was against it, most recently was the causes of ulcers. When a scientific law is proven then I will believe. Scientific law has proven that water freezes at 32 so if some scientist says it melts below 32, then he was probably smoking something illegal except Colorado and his degree should be revolked!

  117. Reply to Christopher Hitchens: Whether or not anyone commenting here has qualifications, laypersons with understanding and knowledge know the history of climate change and realize when they are being defrauded and bamboozled by pseudo-scientists. You sound like one of the members of the Catholic Church who discredited Galileo for stating the sun was the center of the solar system (heliocentrism). You must think everyone is stupid if they don’t have a certain degree or certain level of education.

    A reading of the historical nature of Earth’s climate is all that is needed to show that climate scientists are wrong. I took science in high school and college and I was always taught to question everything. So, now you believe scientists who tell you that global warming is caused by man without even challenging their analysis. There is also a large body of climate scientists who do not believe global warming is a man-made problem.

    That Scientific Global Warming Consensus…Not! – Forbes

    By Larry Bell

    So where did that famous “consensus” claim that “98% of all scientists believe in global warming” come from? It originated from an endlessly reported 2009 American Geophysical Union (AGU) survey consisting of an intentionally brief two-minute, two question online survey sent to 10,257 earth scientists by two researchers at the University of Illinois. Of the about 3.000 who responded, 82% answered “yes” to the second question, which like the first, most people I know would also have agreed with.

    Then of those, only a small subset, just 77 who had been successful in getting more than half of their papers recently accepted by peer-reviewed climate science journals, were considered in their survey statistic. That “98% all scientists” referred to a laughably puny number of 75 of those 77 who answered “yes”.

    That anything-but-scientific survey asked two questions. The first: “When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?” Few would be expected to dispute this…the planet began thawing out of the “Little Ice Age” in the middle 19th century, predating the Industrial Revolution. (That was the coldest period since the last real Ice Age ended roughly 10,000 years ago.)

    The second question asked: “Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?” So what constitutes “significant”? Does “changing” include both cooling and warming… and for both “better” and “worse”? And which contributions…does this include land use changes, such as agriculture and deforestation?

  118. The Latest Meteorologist Survey Destroys The Global Warming Climate ‘Consensus’
    by James M. Taylor November 25, 2013

    Barely half of American Meteorological Society meteorologists believe global warming is occurring and humans are the primary cause, a newly released study reveals. The survey results comprise the latest in a long line of evidence indicating the often asserted global warming consensus does not exist.

    The American Meteorological Society, working with experts at George Mason University and Yale University, emailed all AMS members for whom the AMS had a mailing address (excluding associate members and student members) and asked them to fill out an online survey on global warming. More than 1,800 AMS meteorologists filled out the survey, providing a highly representative view of scientists with meteorological, climatological, and atmospheric science expertise.

    The central question in the survey consisted of two parts: “Is global warminghappening? If so, what is its cause?” Answer options were:

    Yes: Mostly human

    Yes: Equally human and natural

    Yes: Mostly natural

    Yes: Insufficient evidence [to determine cause]

    Yes: Don’t know cause

    Don’t know if global warming is happening

    Global warming is not happening

    Just 52 percent of survey respondents answered Yes: Mostly human. The other 48 percent either questioned whether global warming is happening or would not ascribe human activity as the primary cause.

    Importantly, the survey addressed merely one of the necessary components of a human-induced global warming crisis. The survey did not ask whether temperatures are warmer than those of the Medieval Warm Period or other recent warm periods, did not ask whether temperatures are warming at a rapid pace, did not ask whether recent warming has been harmful or beneficial and did not ask whether transforming our energy economy would stop global warming or pass a cost/benefit test. Certainly, many of the 52 percent of meteorologists who believe humans are primarily responsible for some warming would nevertheless question some of these other necessary components of a human-induced global warming crisis.

    In short, the news for global warming activists is far worse than the survey results showing barely half of meteorologists believe humans are primarily responsible for some global warming. The reality is when you factor in the other necessary components of a global warming crisis, clearly less than half of American Meteorological Society meteorologists believe in the frequently asserted global warming crisis.

    Mind you, this is a survey of scientists with targeted atmospheric science expertise and who have demonstrated the skills and experience to qualify for AMS membership. This isn’t a poll of chemists or engineers, nor is it a position statement put together by a dozen or so members of a scientific group’s bureaucracy; it is a poll of more than 1,800 atmospheric scientists.

    While these survey results should have a seismic impact in the global warming debate, they shouldn’t come as a surprise. The evidence of a sharp scientific disagreement in the global warming debate has been building for years.

    Chinese Academy of Sciences Vice President Ding Zhongli explained human activity is not the only factor causing global warming and we don’t know how to assign relative weight to human and natural warming factors. “Up to now not a single scientist has figured out the weight ratio of each factor on global temperature change,” he wrote., “The phenomenon observed today, in particular the temporary rise of global temperature, is the result of the natural rhythm of climate change.”)

    According to the American Physical Society, “There is a considerable presence within the scientific community of people who do not agree with the IPCC conclusion” of a global warming crisis.

    According to the Director of the Center for Sun-Climate Research at the Danish Space Research Institute at the Danish National Space Center, we have recently experienced “the highest solar activity we have had in at least 1,000 years.”

    This led to the Voice of Russia reporting, “Global warming is coming to an end: In the coming years the temperature over the entire planet will fall and the cooling will provide a character of relief. This is the conclusion reached by Russian scientists from the Physics University of the Russian Academy of Science.”

    Scientific truth is determined by facts, evidence and observations – not a show of hands. If a show of hands determined scientific truth, medical doctors would still be bleeding people with leeches and we would still believe the sun revolves around the earth. Nevertheless, there may be times when political leaders feel compelled to give special consideration to an overwhelming scientific majority when that overwhelming majority reaches strong agreement on a matter of serious public concern.

    Global warming activists claim a serious public concern presently exists and the overwhelming majority of scientists agrees humans are creating a global warming crisis. The survey of AMS meteorologists, however, shows no such overwhelming majority exists. Indeed, to the extent we can assign a majority scientific opinion to whether all the necessary components of a global warming crisis exist, the AMS survey shows the majority does not agree humans are creating a global warming crisis.

    The results of this new survey may not come as a surprise to those following the global warming debate, but it is a piece of evidence with seismic importance in the ongoing political debate.

    [Originally published on Forbes]

    Tags:American Meteorological SocietyAmerican Physical SocietyAMSatmosphereCenter for Sun-climate ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesClimateclimate changeDin Zhonglienvironmental scienceGeorge Mason Universityglobal warmingIPCCMedieval Warm PeriodRussian Academy of ScienceYale University
    James M. Taylor
    — James M. Taylor
    James M. Taylor is a senior fellow for environmental policy at The Heartland Institute and managing editor of Environment & Climate News, a national monthly publication devoted to sound science and free-market environmentalism with a circulation of approximately 75,000 readers. He is also senior fellow for The Heartland Institute focusing on environmental issues. He is author of What Climate Scientists Think about Global Warming (Heartland Institute, 2007) and coauthor of State Greenhouse Gas Programs: An Economic and Scientific Analysis (Heartland Institute, 2003) and New Source Review: An Evaluation of EPA’s Reform Recommendations (Heartland Institute, 2002). He has presented environmental analysis on the CBS Evening News, CNN, and Fox News Channel; on numerous national radio programs; and in virtually every major newspaper in the country. Taylor received his bachelor’s degree from Dartmouth College and his law degree from the Syracuse University College of Law, where he was president of the local chapter of the Federalist Society and founder and editor-in-chief of the Federalist Voice.

  119. I am always amazed at how much the shape of these Vortexs resemble the Laurentide Ice Sheet.

  120. No global warming…more like God warning! It is all in the Bible, Enoch 1 and others what was to come! Winter would last 3 more months, drought would dry up cities while others would get some rain. Earthquakes, tsunamis, signs in the Moon (4 Blood Moon Te trad on Jewish Festival for 2014 – 2015) and so………………………..much……………..more!!!!!!!! Read it is the only book that foretold everything and 100% is and will come to pass. No other religious book can match it. Not even close!

  121. [Regardless of their locations, the HAARP’s new locations are not discussed here on WUWT. Mod]

  122. Bumbotsays says:
    March 18, 2014 at 8:42 pm

    > If the temperatures were in Fahrenheit, the charts would make more sense to the average Person.

    This is an international blog. While most of the readers here are American, I would hope that we have more familiarity with Celcius reports than most non-American readers have with Fahrenheit. In my comments I’ll often supply both.

    Spend more time reading weather model output, you’ll get up to speed with Celcius without much effort.

  123. In 1990 it snowed on Derby Day, the first Sat in May. I remember because I was there & freezing! Just that time of year…

  124. Maybe the author, Mr. Watts, could obtain a comment from [snip – a bit extreme -mod] party fool and colossal fraud, algore.

  125. [snip – you are welcome to rephrase and resubmit that comment without the hate and labeling – mod]

  126. Pamela Gray says:
    March 17, 2014 at 7:07 pm

    “Logic…..”

    I now have a name for for my next female bull terrier. Thank you.

    • Olde English saying. “Never cast a cloat (clothes) till May is out”. All the weather is doing is reverting back 50 years, when we never had any summers in England to boast about. “I remember it well…. school holidays ended in early September when the weather got sunnier, just normal really. It is cooling in my part of Australia, the Northern Tablelands of NSW, night temps are dropping to 10 C, and I am bringing in some of my plants and bonsais that don’t tolerate temps this low.

  127. ***
    Christopher Hitchens says:
    March 19, 2014 at 9:33 am
    ***

    Brainless appeals to authority don’t work here — regulars have seen thousands of ‘em. Yawn…..

  128. Jimbo says:
    March 18, 2014 at 5:17 pm

    Spring is arriving earlier and earlier.
    —————————————————–
    Spring was arriving earlier and earlier for quite a few years. The reset button appears to have been pushed several years ago.

  129. Who are these 97% of climate scientist? Have we got a real list of them? What happened to the other 3%? It is easy to pick percentages out to prove a dodgy point.

      • I see who they are about 1x a year. My latest info of who they are was about a year ago and it is secret, so I saw it by accident.

    • Consensus is not science. Several important discoveries have been discovered without consensus, instead they proved a scientific canon. Most recently was the true cause of ulcers.

  130. Meterological explanation. The annual cold air moving south moved more intensely this year, “ there was a sharp dip in the jet stream (“trough”) over Canada and the U.S. that could be considered a portion of the tropospheric polar vortex circulation, but such a trough is not uncommon; this one was just particularly strong”, supporting global warming premise of weather extremes increasing.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/stuostro/comment.html?entrynum=30

  131. rcshore says:
    March 20, 2014 at 8:43 am
    I don’t want to brag, but I kind of saw this coming.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Well, those f*ckwits have been doing it since medieval times to make a living, possibly well before.

    Great link though. I’ll be pasting it on more sites.

  132. The UNIPCC obviously used as text, Colleen McCollouchs ‘Creed of the Third Millennium,’ fiction novel. She describes a zero pollution growth, displacement of North American populations, no power only a few hours of the day, and death penalties for those who cut down trees for fuel. And a one world government? Do you reckon there as some similarities. Actually her descriptive writing of what it was like to live in New York was great. Had me turning on the electric blanket in our summer.

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