X class solar flare ejection may hit Earth with solar storm

From the WUWT Solar Reference page, an X 1.2 event has occurred:

Xray[1]

From NASA Spaceweather:

Giant sunspot AR1944 erupted on Jan 7th at approximately 1832 UT, producing a powerful X1-class solar flare. First-look coronagraph images from the STEREO-Ahead spacecraft appear to show a coronal mass ejection (CME) emerging from the blast site. If so, the CME is almost certainly heading for Earth. Stay tuned for updates as more data arrive from the NASA-ESA Heliophysics Fleet.

One of the biggest sunspots in years is crossing the center of the solar disk, putting Earth in the way of potential eruptions. Rocky Raybell photographed the active region named “AR1944″ yesterday from his backyard in Keller, Washington:

The sprawling sunspot contains dozens of dark cores, the largest big enough to swallow Earth three times over.

Here is the latest SDO image:

latest_512_4500[1]

This graphic from Tamitha Skov

Solar_flare_X12_01-7-14

More at the WUWT Solar Reference page

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104 thoughts on “X class solar flare ejection may hit Earth with solar storm

  1. “However, the extreme event in 1859 is theorised to have been well over X40 so a Z class designation is possible.” – Wikipedia on the Carrington event.

    So X class is a linear scale. In 1859, it set telegraph systems on fire. That’s impressive. Does a solar minimum affect the probability of X class flares, or are they random?

  2. It is fortunate that the probability of an Aurora Borealis display coincides with clear skies! My outdoor heated eyeball observatory is ready, the hottub is at 104°F. Goodie.

  3. In the interests of enlightening the lay person, are there likely to be any effects noticeable to the average Earthling?

  4. Any estimates on arrival time? Looking at CMEs, they appear to have a wide range in velocity.

  5. Doug Huffman says:
    January 7, 2014 at 2:19 pm

    It is fortunate that the probability of an Aurora Borealis display coincides with clear skies! My outdoor heated eyeball observatory is ready, the hottub is at 104°F. Goodie.
    ___________________________
    I remember two such instances as a boy in Northern Oklahoma. My Grandmother took us outside and pointed out the Northern Lights and when we went home a few days later, the minister next door showed them to us and gave us some more info about “Aurora Borealis”. I’m a city boy, now and the prospect of seeing the lights from the greater Oklahoma metropolis is slim.

  6. You’re quite welcome Janice, I love the northern lights and have been keeping an eye on that rather large black spot on the SUN in recent days…wondering if it would give us a show.

  7. ldd says:January 7, 2014 at 3:31 pm
    Thanks for the link for aurora forecasts. I remember seeing them in N. Indiana and Massachusetts in the 50s and 60s. Since moving slightly south to central Colorado in 1972, I’ve not seen them.

  8. artwest says: January 7, 2014 at 3:06 pm “In the interests of enlightening the lay person, are there likely to be any effects noticeable to the average Earthling?” Can’t yet be told precisely. Watch for the Wing Kp Index to update. Kp≥5 is about minimum for a visible aurora (not just the glow) in the contiguous US.

  9. From http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/30/msm-finally-gets-that-the-suns-magnetic-field-has-flipped/

    lsvalgaard says:

    January 6, 2014 at 9:58 am

    Bob Weber says:
    January 6, 2014 at 9:40 am
    AR1944, when it rolls into position and if it fires off a flare towards us

    [lsvalgaard]
    I don’t think AR1944 will be flaring a lot…
    It is in the wrong position with respect to the large-scale magnetic flux, e.g.http://www.leif.org/research/Hale-Flares.pdf

    What made you change your mind?

  10. MrX says:

    In 1859, it set telegraph systems on fire. That’s impressive.

    I’m open to having my mind changed, but I’m skeptical about the telegraph fires being caused by this event. I have no doubt that there was correlation, but….

  11. Artwest – from yesterday, where I said
    Bob Weber says:

    January 6, 2014 at 9:40 am

    “Electric space weather: “FLARES LIKELY TODAY: Giant sunspot AR1944 has a ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic field that harbors energy for potent Earth-directed eruptions.” – http://www.spaceweather.com/ “A minor S1 level radiation storm remains in progress following an increase in Earth directed proton levels. Unfortunately for us sky watchers, the bright coronal mass ejection (CME) it generated is likely directed away from our planet.” SSN=225, SFI=218 – http://www.solarham.net/ ["FORTUNATELY" would have been a better choice of words considering...] Further, the largest and quickest spikes I have ever seen in ACE LE Electrons (a double spike) and ACE HE Protons – http://solarimg.org/artis/ – AR1944, when it rolls into position and if it fires off a flare towards us, look for atmospheric brightening, a delayed warm blast from the tropics, an another planetary wave induced SSW, and the polar vortex to deliver another wave of bone-chilling killer cold – all Electric/Magnetic Weather Effects.”

    Today, photons, protons, and electrons are arriving. You may feel bad in some way today, headache, stomach ache, tired, cranky, all recurring symptoms from electric space weather as it filters down to you. I call it all the “electric weather effect”. Don’t let it get you down. There’s nothing new under the sun.

  12. Can someone clarify why Aurora Borealis is mentioned but not Aurora Australis as well. Are those of us Down Under unlikely to see anything interesting?

  13. I’ve been living in North Pole, AK for a little over 3 years, and photographing the Northern Lights is a hobby of mine. At midnight last night there were no Northern Lights visible. As I left for work this morning at 7:30 (Alaska Standard Time), more than 3 hours before sunrise, there was an unusual amount of Northern Lights visible. That’s a nice way to start the day.

    My “go-to” source for information on the Northern Lights is the Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks website; http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast/NorthAmerica/2014/01/07 which has forecasted the greatest aurora activity this Thursday and Friday. Our weather forecast doesn’t look good for viewing this, but I’ll have my camera’s batteries charged and my fingers crossed.

  14. EW3 says:
    January 7, 2014 at 5:09 pm
    That happens with or without any flares from the SUN, more often it’s those winter winds coupled with heavy snow and/or ice that’s usually the cause.

    Old Ranga says:
    January 7, 2014 at 5:04 pm
    If you check the link I left, there’s a red “view” line that indicates where you most likely will see them. I’ve never seen them reach the continent of Australia yet.

    From northern Ontario originally although living very close to the St. Lawrence River now, I have seen the northern lights often. Once they were very visible in the summer, early 70’s and we were camping way up north – quite the sight to see them reflecting off the water. I’ve seen the small green circles in the night sky and the red/orange hues at dusk on the northern horizon, in winters. Other than that one camping trip, usually don’t get to see them as strong as the lucky Norwegians/Scandinavians get to see them. Search for their pictures – amazing stuff.

  15. Bob Weber says:
    January 7, 2014 at 4:26 pm
    What made you change your mind?
    In my initial judgement I took a too hasty look at the LMSAL polarity chart [ http://www.leif.org/research/2014-01-07.png from http://www.lmsal.com/forecast/ ], but the chart is wildly misleading:
    1) the open flux regions have borders that are the opposite of the enclosed coronal holes: black holes [negative] have a white boundary
    2) the poles do not have the correct polarity: south is now negative, north is positive, but the neutral line shows a positive south and a negative north. This is because LMSAL uses an annual [smoothed] value of the polarity
    3) the HMF has been positive the past 16 days and a sector boundary (+,-) is expected in three days or so:
    2013 10 22 2459 XXXXX.X**XXX….XX*….*XXX
    2013 11 18 2460 XXXX*X*XX……….*…..*X
    2013 12 15 2461 *XXXXXXX….*……….*
    56789-123456789-1123456789-

    So, AR1944 is actually on a Hale boundary after all.

  16. Bob Weber says:
    January 7, 2014 at 4:37 pm
    all Electric/Magnetic Weather Effects
    That is just your unfounded opinion. Careful analyses by many people [well-trodden path that we have been down many times before] do not support your claim.

  17. EW3 says: January 7, 2014 at 5:09 pm “Not a good time of the year to lose power in the north.”

    Prayerfully, anyone liable has made preparations. My only household service dependent on mains power is the deep well. I’d scoop and melt snow if needed. Primary heat is subsidized electric baseboards, with a propane gas-log, on a 500 gallon tank, that works fine as a convection heater, though it has a blower.

    All glass is old double pane. The bedroom double casement window is covered by a fancy insulating blackout drape against the full Moon reflecting off the snowfield – it is like daylight, it will wake us. The drape is so effective that there is a centimeter of ice on the bottom of the casement, and the room is toasty.

  18. Thank you for your clarification. Things never stop moving out there, do they? Just been looking at a number of your Hale boundary articles, still reading in fact. If that arctic vortex cranks up again in 4.5 days or less, and behaves like this episode, that would be some validation, eh? We’ll see. Bz is negative right now. I happen to think there are (were) people in high places who learned all about this a long time ago, but it was masked for CAGW agenda purposes. Just sayin’. Do you have any idea what happened here? http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/solar/solarradio.html
    Solar Radio Spectral Event Data 1967-present, ——No Data Found—— SolarGate?

    Do you know where I can find it? I’ll be calling NOAA tomorrow.

  19. Bob Weber says:
    January 7, 2014 at 6:30 pm
    If that arctic vortex cranks up again in 4.5 days or less, and behaves like this episode, that would be some validation, eh?
    No it would not. One swallow does not a summer make. And are you prepared to completely disown your ideas if the vortex does not ‘crank up’? If you are not, then verification goes out the window.

    I happen to think there are (were) people in high places who learned all about this a long time ago, but it was masked for CAGW agenda purposes
    I happen to think that is plain nonsense.

    Do you know where I can find it? I’ll be calling NOAA tomorrow.
    Dataset disappears for many reasons: sloppy reorg. of web sites, too little interest, ‘in with the new, out with the old’, etc.

  20. Will this cause more polar vortices and global warming? Hopefully the shadow government can shield us with HAARP emissions and chemtrails,..well that is IF the reptilian overlords don’t stop them.

  21. Bob Weber says January 7, 2014 at 4:37 pm

    Today, photons, protons, and electrons are arriving. You may feel bad in some way today, headache, stomach ache, tired, cranky, all recurring symptoms from electric space weather as it filters down to you.

    Gee, do you figure any of this will be detectable at the surface using an electrometer (glorified Leyden jar)? Or will our atmosphere, in particular, the ionosphere, shield us?

    /rhetorical

    .

  22. Several science papers I found just the other discuss the effects of solar wind interactions with the GEC and the creation of planetary waves, waves that can produce sudden stratospheric warming. events. This isn’t the venue for a detailed discussion. The solar wind interaction with the GEC produces ion diffusion into the atmosphere that many papers have produced evidence for, including Svensmark. You guys might help yourselves to the free and open internet and spend some time learning what a great many scientists worldwide have learned about solar wind and atmospheric ions.

    Dr. Svalgaard – in your paper http://www.leif.org/research/Hale-Flares.pdf, the link here isn’t working: ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SOLAR_FLARES/

    Nonsense – I’ve been looking for a while, can’t find it. There is vital information in those datasets.

  23. Dr. Svalgaard I noticed you didn’t mention in that article on the Hale boundaries how the flares are created – what causes solar flares?

  24. Bob Weber says:
    January 7, 2014 at 7:27 pm
    Several science papers I found just the other discuss the effects of solar wind interactions with the GEC and the creation of planetary waves, waves that can produce sudden stratospheric warming. events. This isn’t the venue for a detailed discussion.
    You are right, one should not try to hijack the thread with this.

    great many scientists worldwide have learned about solar wind and atmospheric ions.
    I may be behind the times, but to my knowledge there are not a ‘great many scientists’ who peddle such.

    Dr. Svalgaard – in your paper http://www.leif.org/research/Hale-Flares.pdf, the link here isn’t working: ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SOLAR_FLARES/
    Such is the internet: you can never count on any permanence of anything.

    There is vital information in those datasets.
    And with some effort that data can surely be retrieved somehow. I don’t consider it vital enough to keep chasing after it. It was there when I needed it. Good enough for me.

    Dr. Svalgaard I noticed you didn’t mention in that article on the Hale boundaries how the flares are created – what causes solar flares?
    A flare is a conversion of magnetic energy into electric currents, and heat. A potential magnetic field [e.g. that from a simple dipole] has no free energy and cannot lead to a flare, but because the magnetic field is effectively frozen into the solar plasma, movements of the plasma [below the surface] can twist and writhe the magnetic field, increasing the energy stored in the field. This process can proceed until plasma instabilities and magnetic reconnection make the structure ‘blow up’, dumping the energy down [and up] heating the plasma to millions of degrees: a flare.

    Walter Dnes says:
    January 7, 2014 at 7:43 pm
    Just our luck that the NRC (Penticton) 10 cm observations at ftp://ftp.geolab.nrcan.gc.ca/data/solar_flux/daily_flux_values/fluxtable.txt appear to be down. Is that co-incidental instrument failure. Or did something get fried by the flare?
    It is coincidental: the site stopped producing data two days ago. Probably some instrumental problem.

  25. lsvalgaard says:
    January 7, 2014 at 6:45 pm
    Bob Weber says:
    January 7, 2014 at 6:30 pm
    “I happen to think there are (were) people in high places who learned all about this a long time ago, but it was masked for CAGW agenda purposes”
    I happen to think that is plain nonsense.
    Dataset disappears for many reasons: sloppy reorg. of web sites, too little interest, ‘in with the new, out with the old’, etc.

    As I thought, a bit of reorganization has taken place:
    ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/space-weather/solar-data/solar-features/solar-flares/

  26. lsvalgaard says:
    January 7, 2014 at 6:14 pm
    In my initial judgement I took a too hasty look at the LMSAL polarity chart [ http://www.leif.org/research/2014-01-07.png from http://www.lmsal.com/forecast/ ], but the chart is wildly misleading:

    2) the poles do not have the correct polarity: south is now negative, north is positive, but the neutral line shows a positive south and a negative north. This is because LMSAL uses an annual [smoothed] value of the polarity

    Hi Leif,
    There are of course the usual caveats about this phase of the cycle being more difficult to model [weak polar fields plus relatively strong activity belts make the current sheet more sensitive to unassimilated activity and flow parameterizations built in to the model, etc etc], but I note that overlays of modeled open-flux boundaries on EUV images indicate that the model is picking up much of the coronal hole(s) presently on disk, and these coronal holes are apparently overlying negative polarity, even in the northern hemisphere. See http://www.lmsal.com/forecast/modelEUV/VSLeuv_00211_fd_20140107_1958.gif in comparison with http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/SunInTime/2014/01/07/l_HMImag.jpg

  27. Marc DeRosa says:
    January 7, 2014 at 8:16 pm
    There are of course the usual caveats about this phase of the cycle being more difficult to model [weak polar fields plus relatively strong activity belts make the current sheet more sensitive to unassimilated activity and flow parameterizations built in to the model, etc etc]
    Yes, this is difficult and we must take what we have and not forget the caveats. To make the model a bit more useful could I get you to fix the contour problem: that white contours surround black holes and vice versa. Please make the contour matchs the polarity of the holes.

  28. Bob Weber said on January 7, 2014 at 4:37 pm
    “…Today, photons, protons, and electrons are arriving. You may feel bad in some way today, … cranky,… .”

    Yeah! Come to think of it. Around 4:38pm, today, … !! In FACT…., it made me so irritated I had to go out for a run with my German Shepherd and not return here for over 4 hours to avoid saying something I might regret. Whew! Am I glad to know that it wasn’t me.

    Mr. Weber, I think you may have discovered something important.

  29. Janice Moore says:
    January 7, 2014 at 8:44 pm
    “…Today, photons, protons, and electrons are arriving. You may feel bad in some way today, … cranky,… .”
    Yeah! Come to think of it. Around 4:38pm, today, … !! In FACT…., it made me so irritated

    Strangely enough, I have felt fine all day…

  30. Dear Dr. Svalgaard,

    And, of course, so did I. You are a much more gracious and loving person toward people like Mr. Weber than I am. I am ashamed. Given his utter sincerity, I should not have mocked him. That was unkind of me. I am glad that you commented on this so that it got me to admit my wrong.

    With high admiration for your patience,

    Janice

    P.S. And I am glad that you have felt fine, today! #(:))
    *******************************************************************

    @ Mr. Weber — while I cannot say that I agree with you in the slightest, given your utter sincerity, it was wrong of me to make fun of you. I hope you can, at least, realize what a great gift you are being given to have your hypotheses answered by as fine a scholar as Dr. Svalgaard.

  31. lsvalgaard says:
    January 7, 2014 at 8:29 pm
    To make the model a bit more useful could I get you to fix the contour problem: that white contours surround black holes and vice versa. Please make the contour matchs the polarity of the holes.

    That was tried, but we found that the open-flux contours stand out better in grayscale images if their color were opposite to the polarity, especially in the activity belts. I can see how this is confusing at the poles, however.

  32. Janice Moore says:
    January 7, 2014 at 9:00 pm
    Given his utter sincerity, I should not have mocked him.
    It is best just to stick with the science [if possible...]

    Marc DeRosa says:
    January 7, 2014 at 9:12 pm
    I can see how this is confusing at the poles, however.
    I would strongly opt for less confusion, please…

  33. Isn’t it great that Dr. Svalgaard has time for everyone. The first new link you gave has data ending a few years ago. The second link has very old data. Did I look for the right dataset? I’m looking for the best dataset available that will allow me to integrate the energy of photons across all wavelengths minute by minute if possible, for each day of SC23 & SC24. What dataset is most appropriate for this?

    For all you who live in the southern states that were unaffected by the winter weather, yea, lucky you, you don’t have the same experience as the people in the northern states who live, work, and feel the weather day in day out. So many people report sensitivity to the weather in the manner I spoke of, and you comments reflect more than just insensitivity – more like callousness. It would take you brainiac doubters less than fifteen minutes to find dozens of solid papers on weather-related health issues.

    Not every human reacts the same to the same bad weather stimuli, but after living here in N. Mich, for 50+ years, there’s a widespread awareness of those “bad” weather-related feelings. At this point I feel sorry for a few recent commenters whose lack of compassion for their fellow man is so unjustified. In balmy California, or anywhere in fair weather, the human body feels no ill effects from atmospheric ions or other metrics. Janice your wisecracks are pathetic, I am sorry to have to say that, but that’s what they are.

  34. Dear Mr. Weber,

    Whether or not my wisecracks were pathetic or witty, they were wrong. Believe me, I have far more compassion for you than you will likely ever realize. Please forgive me for offending you. My wicked desire to be humorous overrode my better (yes, I really have a good side) nature.

    And I live at about latitude 48 in NW Wash. St.. Keep warm and

    Take care out there,

    Janice

  35. Bob Weber says:
    January 7, 2014 at 9:47 pm
    I’m looking for the best dataset available that will allow me to integrate the energy of photons across all wavelengths minute by minute if possible, for each day of SC23 & SC24. What dataset is most appropriate for this?
    That dataset is called TSI, but does not have minute-by-minute resolution [unless you go to the raw data - which you don't want to do, as then you will have to deal with calibration problems and low-level stuff]. Also you don’t need minute-by-minute resolution, six hours should be good enough; the polar vortex doesn’t react on a minute-by-minute basis :-)

    you don’t have the same experience as the people in the northern states who live, work, and feel the weather day in day out.
    I grew up in Denmark and have lived and worked in Northern Greenland at 10,000 feet altitude…

    find dozens of solid papers on weather-related health issues
    But not electric-magnetic issues…

  36. This is a link that’s providing a video with enough clues to dig in information that’s contradicting the electro-magnetic health issues. Of course, heart palpitations can be interpreted as neutral, but interpretation is just before evaluation and conclusion. As a behavioural therapist I know what I’m talking about.

  37. Leif

    Several years ago we discussed the potentially devastating effect on modern society of another Carrington event.

    The UK Govt seems to have become aware of the problem and asked the Met Office to monitor such things as solar flares.

    In case you didn’t catch the item here it is;

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2013/space-weather-forecasts

    Monitoring is one thing and providing actual protection to vulnerable installations is another, however its a start.

    In my opinion I would be far more concerned at the sudden devastation potential of another Carrington event than of hard to discern global warming.

    tonyb

  38. By coincidence, last night’s Stargazing Live on BBC2 (hosted by Brian Cox) had a lot to say about the dangers of solar flares, and they also showed beautiful live aurora images. This event was probably occurring roughly at the same time. They’ll probably have more to say about solar flares on tonight’s program!
    Chris

  39. Janice- apology accepted. Sylvia – the electric weather happens high in the atmosphere as a result of soalr wind interactions that trigger ions diffusion into the atmosphere. A long chain of events of various kinds occur here that are easily discoverable by the intrepid investigator. Today I’m preparing for something else, but later, asap, I’ll return with supportive “backup”. Have a nice day.

    From http://www.solarham.net/ “Radiation Storm Continues: Proton levels streaming past Earth continue to slowly rise. We are now above the Moderate (S2) level radiation storm threshold in the wake the the X1.2/CME event.”

  40. Additionally, the S1 radiation caused by Dec 31/Jan 1 flares M6.4 and M9.9 provided the energy for the now subsiding arctic vortex. Yesterday’s X-flare is more powerful, delivering big spikes in hard xrays (photons), protons, and electrons. The interaction here will be more potent, especially if Bz is significantly negative. Favorable conditions for another solar wind caused planetary wave induced SSW could be in the works resulting in another arctic vortex… Look out. The S1 storm was mediated by the new moon. This first quarter moon interaction will be somewhat different perhaps, something we can all learn from if we’re open to observing the universe in all it’s glory.

    The potency of the CME blast from a flare can be partially seen in the amount of time it takes for it to get here. We’ll be watching, waiting, and learning together. If we think AR1944 is impressive, take a look at the farside watch on Solarham, and see how much more intense regions 1934, 1936, 1937 are than 1944.

  41. Bob Weber says:
    January 8, 2014 at 5:32 am
    Additionally, the S1 radiation caused by Dec 31/Jan 1 flares M6.4 and M9.9 provided the energy for the now subsiding arctic vortex.
    No, the total energy in those particle is too minute to have any effect on the weather.

  42. For those who haven’t, please click on the solar image on the right sidebar of WUWT — it brings up a wealth of solar images, graphs & data. Even shows coronal mass ejections streaming out from the sun & how it impacts the planets.

  43. Leif,

    – In a NASA article of August 5: According to measurements from NASA-supported observatories, the sun’s vast magnetic field is about to flip. “It looks like we’re no more than 3 to 4 months away from a complete field reversal,” says solar physicist Todd Hoeksema of Stanford University. (http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/05aug_fieldflip/)
    – This was repeated (with same periode of “3 to 4 months away”!) on December 9. ( http://www.clarksvilleonline.com/2013/12/09/nasa-reports-magnetic-field-sun-reverse/)
    – On December 17, the title was “Sun will ‘flip upside down’ within weeks – scientists”: Scientist won’t know for around another three weeks whether the flip is complete. (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11173939)
    – On December 30: “Sun has ‘flipped upside down’ – Nasa”. The sun has fully “flipped upside down”, with its north and south poles reversed to reach the midpoint of Solar Cycle 24, Nasa has said. (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11179370)
    My questions:
    – Do you agree that a solar “flip” has two phases (i.e. a “flip” in the northern and southern polar fields) and that what happened during the last months concerned only the southern polar fields?
    – Which event did the scientists conclude that the “flip” was complete around December 30? Has it something to do with the 7 degree tilt of the sun’s axis? You even quoted from an e-mail of Todd Hoeksema: We can now confirm that the south pole of the Sun as measured by WSO has reversed polarity. We’ve just updated the analysis for the last month or so as Earth approached the solar equator from the north.
    If this is (part of) the explanation, why is the direct surrounding area around the poles so important. I thought that Sun’s Polar Field strength is measured at WSO each day between about 55 degrees and the poles. Why had the scientist to wait until 30 December to take firm conclusions?

  44. At this point Dr. Svalgaard, I will ask you to suspend judgment until the S2+ storm reaches full intensity. Here’s what I think happened, unless you have proof positive that it didn’t:

    The electron vortex created above the north pole by the magnetotail’s interaction with the S1 radiation storm the Earth encountered during the new moon as a result of two solar flares (high-energy photon bursts), dragged the cold of space with it into the pole, until the electrons in the magnetosphere reached equilibrium with the earth.

    Auroras are classified as either electron or proton driven. ALL electric/magnetic weather effects are solar driven. It’s photons, protons, and electrons from short-term solar bursts that drive extreme weather events and natural disasters. It takes days for all those effects to play out, in ways that vary with many variable factors. THERE IS NOTHING NEW UNDER THE SUN.

    By the end of this winter, it will be obvious who is right here.

  45. Janice Moore says:
    January 7, 2014 at 10:02 pm

    And I live at about latitude 48 in NW Wash. St.. Keep warm and

    Apparently that’s about where I am, too. No extreme cold here on Whidbey Island. The Pacific Ocean sees to that, for the most part.

  46. After bit of a wait polar magnetic field is updated by Stanford-WSOhttp://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/PF.htm
    My sympathy to all N. Americans in this cold spel, i shouln’t say ‘told you so’ but since number of things are converging, low solar activity, solar and the Earth’s magneting field going out of phase, sudden drop in the N. Atlantic tectonics, I took a gamble on this ‘pseudoscience’, put my money where my mouth is, bought a place at south of France and enjoyng pleasant +16C.

  47. Just wanted to comment, I’m usually pretty even keel, yesterday I was so out of sorts, and had extreme anxiety for a few hours…it was very uncomfortable, and I could not understand it. Today I checked to see if there was a solar flare, and lo and behold….yes. It may be that people that are
    more empathic and sensitive to energies have differing experiences than people that are not.
    Open mindedness is knowing that our experiences of events are not all alike.

  48. For those that asked about “when this flare will reach us,” it takes about 30 to 72 hours for plasma and charged particles released from the sun to reach earth.

    I would also invite you to view these events as something positive. Every time a large solar flare occurs I go outside [barefoot on grass] about 48 hours afterwards, face the sun, and form an electrical/energetic connection with the sun. The last two times I interacted with the sun in this manner I received information and loving frequencies that brought tears to my eyes. Try it!

  49. (this is not to put anyone down, just to consider the thread as it has gone for the past 18 hours or so from Dr. Svalgaard’s point of view)

  50. Okay, Dr. Svalgaard, you won’t do it, but I WILL:

    Aaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrgh!!!!!!!!!

  51. And, thank you, Bob Weber, for your forgiveness. I hope that today is going well for you. Take care.

  52. rikgheysens says:
    January 8, 2014 at 7:06 am
    - Do you agree that a solar “flip” has two phases (i.e. a “flip” in the northern and southern polar fields) and that what happened during the last months concerned only the southern polar fields?
    The North and the South usually [at least every time we have observed it] change polarity at different times.

    I thought that Sun’s Polar Field strength is measured at WSO each day between about 55 degrees and the poles. Why had the scientist to wait until 30 December to take firm conclusions?
    Read the discussion of Section 2 of http://www.leif.org/research/Cycle%2024%20Smallest%20100%20years.pdf
    The time when the last tiny bit of the old polarity finally reverses at the very pole is later than when the average above 55 degrees reverses. In fact, our high-resolution SDO/HMI data shows that there still is some old polarity remnants at the South pole even today.

    Perhaps some confusion comes from the dumbing down that NASA [always] does. The Sun’s dipole component does not ‘flip’ in any sense of the word. The polar fields get weaker [independently in N and S] and ‘flicker’ on-off [possibly with counter mini-reversals] for a time near maximum until finally [a couple of years after maximum] settling down with a stable new polarity.

  53. Bob Weber says: January 8, 2014 at 7:28 am

    At this point Dr. Svalgaard, I will ask you to suspend judgment until the S2+ storm reaches full intensity. Here’s what I think happened, unless you have proof positive that it didn’t:

    The electron vortex created above the north pole by the magnetotail’s interaction with the S1 radiation storm the Earth encountered during the new moon as a result of two solar flares (high-energy photon bursts), dragged the cold of space with it into the pole, until the electrons in the magnetosphere reached equilibrium with the earth.

    Considering the heat capacity of ‘space’, I can’t imagine much cooling.

  54. Keep your eyes open people. I don’t claim to have all the answers. I hope Dr. Svalgaard feels the same about himself. Life continues to teach lessons. We can’t be afraid to challenge our assumptions, no matter our station in life. Are all things understood? If they were, Dr. Svalgaard would have stood up and proclaimed there’s nothing to see here, this isn’t unusual, I know how it happened, and this is the explanation… and a straightforward understandable answer would have been given that we’d all have accepted by now. But that’s not what happened, is it?

    Thank you [juaves says: January 8, 2014 at 8:46 am] for being honest and open about your experience. You just had a bout of “electric weather” – it’ll pass eventually. When, I don’t know, because that big old ball of plasma up there decides when that’s gonna happen, and when it ends. From the looks of the double-spike GOES and ACE protons and electrons charts, I’d say we’re in for a real ride again – but it depends on Bz, right Dr. Svalgaard?

    One thing we all can relate to is hard feelings. What I learned through the past decade after recognizing what happens during “electric weather” episodes is: Hard feelings generated from these experiences “stick” with people, and they hang on to those emotions, rationalizing their anger and behavour, attributing it to “what they think” rather than what they “feel” caused by these outside causal events. If the human race can understand these reactions when they happen, a lot of conflict and misery in the world could be avoided. Something to be “conscience” about.

    Flush your toilet – what happens? A water vortex. What does it do? It sucks air into the middle of the vortex, doesn’t it?

    Of all the given explanations for this arctic vortex, which makes the most sense? If this weather feature is part of the arctic winter every year as we’ve heard it explained, then why don’t we always have such potent cold blasts? Why is it people are saying they can’t remember it ever being like this in their lifetime? I promise you the evidence is rich, deep, and wide for what I’ve said, and I’m working towards proving that to all of you.

  55. ” Why is it people are saying they can’t remember it ever being like this in their lifetime?”

    Because memories are notoriously unreliable.

  56. Bob Weber says:
    January 8, 2014 at 3:34 pm
    this isn’t unusual, I know how it happened, and this is the explanation… and a straightforward understandable answer would have been given that we’d all have accepted by now. But that’s not what happened, is it?
    With the exception of you not learning anything, that is indeed what happened. The polar vortex and stratospheric warmings [break down of the vortex] are well understood. Of course, in a few lines I can’t give you that understanding, but you can build on what I said and use Google to find out a lot more.

    If this weather feature is part of the arctic winter every year as we’ve heard it explained, then why don’t we always have such potent cold blasts?
    For the same reason that although it is always warm in the summer, sometimes it is much warmer than usual: weather is variable.

    I’d say we’re in for a real ride again – but it depends on Bz, right Dr. Svalgaard?
    Actually not that simple. It depends on the product of Bz and the square of the solar wind speed. Bz changes sign every few hours [sometimes every few minutes]. But, none of this has anything thing to do with the amount of ions in the lower atmosphere where you live

  57. re: “I’m working towards proving that to all of you.” (Bob Weber today at 3:34pm)

    Dear Mr. Weber,

    When I read that I sighed. You will, I have no doubt, try your hardest. If after another week or so, you realize that we are too attached to the physics which we (actually, I should not say, “we,” I am not even a scientist, much less a solar physicist), rather, the scientists responding to you here have learned over many, many decades of study, to accept your message, do give it up.

    Direct your earnest efforts toward minds that have not already gone far down the path of the math, physics, and related studies which are taught in the major universities of the world. Otherwise, you will only expose yourself to more ridicule or, at least, to persistently firm disagreement and to sharp refutations of what you are trying to tell us.

    Discernment is called for, here. You are now one day closer to your last sunrise. Pick your battles wisely. Believe me, this one is a losing one. You have such a sweet spirit; spend your time making yourself HAPPY.

    Take care,

    Janice

  58. It’s just anecdotal but my husband and I were very out of sorts for most of yesterday. It has to be said that we had good reasons for this. We are settling back in Australia and feel as though we are wading through glue trying to sort out all the admin! We feel a lot better today but a smidge of ‘cask white’ helps!!!

  59. Bob Weber says:
    January 8, 2014 at 3:34 pm
    “Flush your toilet – what happens? A water vortex. What does it do? It sucks air into the middle of the vortex, doesn’t it? ”

    It also produces a nasty outflow of air into the room. That is why one should never keep their toothbrush at the sink near the toilet.

  60. I should say yesterday was the 8th in Australia…I didn’t make allowance for large time differences from here (Victoria in Aus) to the West coast of the US…not such an obvious difference when we still in the UK!

  61. vukcevic says:

    January 8, 2014 at 8:10 am

    After bit of a wait polar magnetic field is updated by Stanford-WSOhttp://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/PF.htm
    My sympathy to all N. Americans in this cold spel, i shouln’t say ‘told you so’ but since number of things are converging, low solar activity, solar and the Earth’s magneting field going out of phase, sudden drop in the N. Atlantic tectonics, I took a gamble on this ‘pseudoscience’, put my money where my mouth is, bought a place at south of France and enjoyng pleasant +16C.
    —————————————–
    Vuks would you take a look at this., do you see LOD following the solar dipole on a downward trend?

    Page 19 figure S1

    http://www.liv.ac.uk/~holme/nature_sub.pdf

    lsvalgaard says:

    January 7, 2014 at 6:14 pm
    —————-
    Thanks Dr. Svalgaard, for that and most other replies here.

    Bob Weber says:
    January 8, 2014 at 3:34 pm
    ———————————–
    Just the Facts has some good info on polar vortex,

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/07/a-sober-look-at-the-northern-polar-vortex/#more-100709

    I’m looking too, at polar vortex, as MSM hasn’t really said much..Seems pretty strong that polar vortex the past several months.

    Good night

  62. Annie forgiven. Latest Green news is that we won’t get much rain after hot weather. Well if there is a solar storm it would deflect galactic sub atomic particles from forming clouds. However, they are now saying we are returning to an El Nino episode. I am not that certain. They jump the gun always in bad predictions but I hope it pours here in NSW soon.

  63. Those photons from the xray blasts I spoke of provided additional heating above baseline at the tropics, sending a rapid warm blast northward, creating a planetary wave induced SSW. The timing of the wave and SSW relative to the arctic vortex ramp-up should be determined for clarity.

    The entire global warming fiasco boils down to one major misconception in my view: TSI cannot possibly register the entire the solar flux impulse from Earth-directed flares. Your lame insults mean nothing. I’ve been reading all about Dr. Svalgaard’s insistent view that TSI varies little with the solar cycle, and that it’s not a player in day-to-day anything. That’s about the quality of thinking Al Gore has when he says: “Sunspots – Bullshit.”

    Well, it is sunspots, it is xray flares from sunspots that deliver that extra IR heat from photons at the tropics, it is the resultant CME fluence of protons and electrons from those flares that interact with our near-space environment electrically and magnetically, forcing wild swings in the jet stream. So it is the sun, even during the “small peak” of SC24, that forces weather patterns, and changes the climate from periods of days and beyond. Climate change does not cause climate change, the sun causes extreme weather events and climate change.

    There is no CO2 downwelling IR (heat). That missing heat in climate models comes from xflare photon energy that is not picked up by GOES satellites or figured into TSI. No amount of browbeating on your part will ever change that.

    It will always be solar and cosmic photons, protons, and electrons that provide the power, not CO2.

  64. Bob Weber says:
    January 8, 2014 at 10:13 pm
    That missing heat in climate models comes from xflare photon energy that is not picked up by GOES satellites or figured into TSI.
    No, the photon energy of even the largest flares is minute compared to the regular output of the non-flaring sun.

  65. Dr. Svalgaard, would you care to prove your point? I am prepared to prove mine. Deal? Janice are you being affected by that “electric weather effect”?

  66. If the Earth rotates faster doesn’t that Vary the Strength of the Polar Vortex? Would minute changes be realized in the strength of the outer vortex rings?
    Length of Day LOD from 1960 to 2011
    Page 19 figure S1

    http://www.liv.ac.uk/~holme/nature_sub.pdf

    Still looks like a major effect on LOD at the same time the solar dipole began its declining phase.
    The 1990’s may be that change in Interstellar wind that scientists are looking for. Or not………….

  67. The Heliospheric Current Sheet Sector Boundary which AR9144 straddles is about to sweep over the Earth in the next day or so. At that time the solar wind speed will dip, but then in the days ahead reach a maximum. The density will peak at the boundary, and the magnetic field will increase for a couple of days or so just after the boundary. This is the standard signature of a sector boundary crossing. Here is what the average response [over a thousand boundaries] looks like: http://www.leif.org/research/Solar-Wind-Sector-Boundaries.png

  68. @lsvalgaard and @bob weber
    “Experts from the Institute of Space Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), Institute of Physics of the Earth (RAS), and the Sechenov Moscow Medical Academy have established that the biggest danger emanates from the micro variations of the geomagnetic field, which coincide with the heartbeat. They occur in about half of all magnetic storms, and are most typical for a prelude to a storm with insignificant changes in the geomagnetic field (mostly affecting high altitudes), and for the recovery phase, when the geomagnetic field is coming back to normal.

    Medical statistics for Moscow show that 70% of all micro variations, caused by geomagnetic disturbances, are accompanied by an abnormally high incidence of heart attacks (a growth of about 13%), and blood-strokes (7.5% growth). The low and extremely low frequency electromagnetic fields destabilize the heartbeat, leading to a sudden death or infarction. Medical experts have finally explained why heart attacks take a heavy toll before a magnetic storm – because micro variations begin 24 hours before the storm.”

    http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Magnetic_Storms_Affect_Humans_As_Well_As_Telecommunications.html

  69. Thank you for that LAH. You describe a “magnetic weather effect”, which complements the electric weather effect – they go together hand-in-glove for physical reasons that boil down to Maxwell’s equations for light – electromagnetic radiation [photons] and particle physics [protons and electrons].

    Hang on to your hats people – this S3 storm is a biggie, and I and the only two people I’ve seen today, my lady and her son, are both clearly under its influence, as am I. I am aware, conscious and in control of my outward behavour, is spite of my inner feelings. This will pass. I told my lady last night my heart was beating exceptional hard – and I have a good solid heart with stable, good blood pressure.

    I have simplified it down to “electric weather” because without forward motion of charge, no magnetism occurs. I’m grateful for your input LAH.

  70. L.A.H says:
    January 9, 2014 at 9:23 am
    Medical experts have finally explained why heart attacks take a heavy toll before a magnetic storm – because micro variations begin 24 hours before the storm.”
    There are normally no indication in the solar wind that a magnetic storm is coming, so you may have cause and effect reversed: heart attacks cause magnetic storms if the micro variations begin a day before the storm.

    Bob Weber says:
    January 9, 2014 at 10:33 am
    Hang on to your hats people – this S3 storm is a biggie
    There are 10 such per cycle, 25 S2 storms and 50 S1 storms per cycle, so the past 50 years
    there has been 50 S3s, 125 S2s, and 250 S1s, so this storm is not exceptional and the extreme weather it might cause wouldn’t be either.

  71. “heart attacks cause magnetic storms if the micro variations begin a day before the storm” – are you serious? I didn’t say that – you did. As far as the seriousness of this storm, well, as compared to background it is, as well as compared to storms of lesser severity – all relative.

    Whether it’s considered by you as not exceptional wouldn’t be to anyone under it’s influence who might die from a heart attack or do something or say something rash because of it. That doesn’t even include whatever misery this storm’s interaction with our weather might cause to any number of people until it’s over.

    There is no distinctly different or seperate “magnetic” energy. “Magnetic” storms are caused by the dramatic UPTICKS in “electric and magnetic” solar wind density & speed that get registered by proton and electron measurements by GOES and ACE satellites, among many others measurements. There is no confusion as to cause and effect here. Solar flares kick it out, and we receive it.

  72. Bob Weber says:
    January 9, 2014 at 11:33 am
    “heart attacks cause magnetic storms if the micro variations begin a day before the storm” – are you serious? I didn’t say that – you did.
    LAH did.
    As far as the seriousness of this storm, well, as compared to background it is, as well as compared to storms of lesser severity – all relative.
    It is a relatively benign storm of which we have about 10 every solar cycle…

    Whether it’s considered by you as not exceptional wouldn’t be to anyone under it’s influence who might die from a heart attack or do something or say something rash because of it.
    Nobody would do that because of ‘it’. To blame somebody’s rash behavior on solar flares seems a very convenient, but lame excuse. But perhaps it is your excuse for the nonsense you peddle.

    There is no confusion as to cause and effect here. Solar flares kick it out, and we receive it.
    Absolutely, as we receive all the other flares, hundreds of them.

  73. I looked but didn’t see that quote in LAH’s comment, or the article itself. That might’ve been a rash of yours, eh? It’s Ok – we all do it. I understand. What about the people that die from these storms? Don’t they matter? Are their deaths unimportant, insignificant statistics?

  74. Bob Weber says:
    January 9, 2014 at 12:35 pm
    I looked but didn’t see that quote in LAH’s comment, or the article itself.
    “Medical experts have finally explained why heart attacks take a heavy toll before a magnetic storm – because micro variations begin 24 hours before the storm”
    Causes usually precedes effects.

    What about the people that die from these storms?
    Nobody dies from these storms.

  75. Geez Leif, that’s really stretching it. The article clearly describes heart attacks caused by space weather – what’s your problem – are you saying people don’t die from heart attacks? The micro-variations in the magnetic field preceding the storm 24 hours ahead can trigger heart attacks. That’s the message, not what you said.

    LKMiller: don’t know who you’re refering to, and it doesn’t matter. We’re all unique.

    Found today from http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/23/evidence-of-a-lunisolar-influence-on-decadal-and-bidecadal-oscillations-in-globally-averaged-temperature-trends/ that WUWT has done a lot of work I wasn’t aware of. Also, I’ve got 53 pages and counting of abstracts related to subjects I’ve discussed, and well, is the price of knowledge more than the price of ignorance? Is it worth it? Yes to both. Those papers are going to cost me a small fortune.

    You might not realize it, but I’m a student of life like everyone else here, and maybe my initial efforts have gotten off to a rough start, but that’s life.

  76. Bob Weber says:
    January 9, 2014 at 2:44 pm
    The micro-variations in the magnetic field preceding the storm 24 hours ahead can trigger heart attacks. That’s the message, not what you said.
    Except that there are no such variations [in spite of the claim]. A colleague of mine looked into those kinds of claims long ago: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v259/n5541/abs/259302a0.html
    “A number of Russian scientists8–10 have claimed that there is a real association between geomagnetic storms and the incidence of various human diseases. Within this general area, one of the most active areas of current research seems to be the correlation of solar activity and myocardial infarction and stroke. We have searched for a similar correlation in the USA but have failed to find one.”

  77. Found this site today http://phcal.com/paranormalhelp/emf/index.html (paranormal means phenomena understood to be outside of science’s current ability to explain or measure), where the notes say referring to Geomagnetic & EMF Hypersensitivity

    1. The ACE satellite is in a locked orbit between the Earth and Sun. You can think of this as a “Early Warning System” for inbound space weather. Whereas the GOES satellites are in geosynchronous orbit around the Earth. Magnetic levels seen by the ACE satellite are roughly 40 to 50 minutes in advance of what will be seen by the Earth. Levels seen by the GOES satellites are the Earth’s resulting field in real time.

    2. EMF Hypersensitivity is a medically proven fact, though not fully understood. For those who feel it’s effect, developing an understanding of it will help. Monitoring this page and reading http://phcal.com/paranormalhelp/emf/emf_sensitive.html may help you in this effort.

    3. Magnetic waves travel from the Sun towards the Earth like waves in the ocean. These waves have a directional amplitude (Bx, By, Bz & Bt) and angle (Phi & Theta). A strong shift in either will effect the Earth’s field and result in an EMF Hypersensitive person feeling the effect. Different types of shifts cause different effects on a sensitive person. With time you will learn what your pattern is.

    My lady & I know our patterns, so we watch several indices including Kp. FYI – hope it helps someone somewhere sometime.

  78. lsvalgaard says:

    January 9, 2014 at 7:41 am

    The Heliospheric Current Sheet Sector Boundary which AR9144 straddles is about to sweep over the Earth in the next day or so. At that time the solar wind speed will dip, but then in the days ahead reach a maximum. The density will peak at the boundary, and the magnetic field will increase for a couple of days or so just after the boundary. This is the standard signature of a sector boundary crossing. Here is what the average response [over a thousand boundaries] looks like: http://www.leif.org/research/Solar-Wind-Sector-Boundaries.png
    ————

    Good job explaining Dr. S. Thank you for the info..
    What about cosmic rays? During this episode? Been seeing way too much low thin dark cloud cover but thin layers..

    @Bob Weber
    Just the Facts on his, sober look at the northern polar vortex, has added some more and newer articles.
    Your particles continue on, once injected into the Earth system. Gotta know how it all moves around too, ya know? How that night jet, anticyclone forms and from where..

    justthefactswuwt says:

    January 8, 2014 at 7:00 pm
    Daniel Vogler says: January 8, 2014 at 12:21 am

    It is technically not a true SSW, rather a USLM disturbance that usually precedes a SSW. The warming initiated at the 1hPa and downwelled to 10hPa, http://i.imgur.com/zK7IB6l.gif
    Interesting. Per a paper you cited here;

    http://forum.netweather.tv/user/18727-daniel-vogler/?tab=reputation

  79. Thanx for the tips Carla. You know, the more I learn, the more I learn how much I need to learn.

  80. Bob Weber says:
    January 9, 2014 at 5:42 pm
    will effect the Earth’s field and result in an EMF Hypersensitive person feeling the effect. Different types of shifts cause different effects on a sensitive person. With time you will learn what your pattern is.
    So only hypersensitve persons die from this. BTW, modern studies show that the mortality is highest on geomagnetically very quiet days where you should not feel a thing, e.g. http://www.leif.org/EOS/Deaths-on-Quiet-Days.pdf This is typical of spurious ‘results': different papers draw opposite conclusions.

    Carla says:
    January 9, 2014 at 6:50 pm
    What about cosmic rays? During this episode? Been seeing way too much low thin dark cloud cover but thin layers..
    One swallow does not a summer make. But in general cosmic rays are at a maximum at a sector boundary [for well-understood reasons - e.g. solar wind speed is low], e.g. http://www.leif.org/research/Cosmic-Rays-Thule-SB.png
    The rapid daily variation is real and is caused by the Earth rotating into the cosmic rays in the morning and away from them in the evening [driving on a road you see more cars coming towards you than overtaking you]. The sector boundaries are all nominally sweeping by at 0h Greenwich Time [my sector polarity list has 1-day resolution].

  81. Can’t disagree with the oft-repeated coincidence of different papers that end up on opposite sides of issues/causes/effects. “One swallow does not a summer make.” – Carrington? Discerning the truth is an ongoing battle, isn’t it?

    Thankfully this X-flare episode occured during Bz north conditions. I beleive it is responsible for the warm-up we are seeing across the southern US moving northward.

  82. @ Bob Weber

    Sorry for the delay…it is the time zone difference..

    You may be interested in the following:

    http://www.salzburg.gv.at/cherry_schumann_resonances.pdf

    http://chronobiology.ru/wp-content/uploads/BiologistFH.pdf

    and another quotation:
    “Halberg’s research on the body’s rhythms documented that cycles characterizing solar wind, sunspots, and geomagnetic storms could have a more important effect on our bodies than the alternation of the seasons. For example, fatal heart attacks follow about a 10.5- year cycle in Minnesota in keeping with the solar activity.”

    http://www.msi.umn.edu/~halberg/FaTime.pdf

    Best regards,

    Linda

  83. Leif,

    I was looking for an example of a picture of the sun in a quadrupole constellation. This should, I thought, be found in the period between June 2012 and July 2013, after the reversal of the magnetic fields at the North Pole in 2012. According to me, I had to look for magnetic field lines of the same color at the North Pole and the South Pole. However, I could not find such pictures, neither in the NASA video, presented in http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/30/msm-finally-gets-that-the-suns-magnetic-field-has-flipped/, nor using the interesting tool you mentioned (http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/SunInTime/webgl_tool/solar_viewer/?date=20140106).
    Could you indicate a day when the quadrupole is rather clearly visible in the tool?

  84. rikgheysens says:
    January 12, 2014 at 2:25 am
    Could you indicate a day when the quadrupole is rather clearly visible in the tool?
    As the polar fields are very weak right now and almost impossible to measure with precision as they are transverse to the line-of-sight it will be very difficult [impossible?] to find clear-cut examples.

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