Russian ship ‘Akademik Shokalskiy’ stuck in Antarctic Ice starts moving again, per my forecast – both ships have broken free of ice!

It seems my forecast worked out well. From RT news:

A Russian-built ship stranded in the Antarctic ice has started moving away from the ice fields after a change of wind cleared its path. A Chinese icebreaker, which was caught herself on the way to rescue the vessel, has already reached clear waters.

Luckily, as the weather changed the danger threatening the trapped vessels decreased.

“The situation is favorable now. First, the wind changed direction from an Easterly to a North-Westerly, which changed the direction of ice drift. A large crack formed in the ice, and the ship is now navigating it,” Yury Volgov, director of the Far-Eastern Hydrometeorology Research Institute, which owns the Academician Shokalsky, told media.

The ship may escape the clutches of the ice field quite soon, ship captain Igor Kiselyov said.

“We are sailing at low speed, changing courses. We’ve traveled 20 miles so far. It’s difficult so far, with dense fog and visibility no further than 500 meters. But the ice is thinner and broken here, so we’re moving,” he said.

WUWT readers may recall that when U.S. TV meteorologists, including yours truly, were asked to assist in weather forecasting for the stranded vessel, I made a prediction on December  31st:

“In a couple of minutes John Coleman was back on the phone to me, he wanted my assessment of the maps. I had looked at what was happening and saw what I thought might be an opening in 7-8 days based on the forecast graphics from WeatherBell, where the winds would shift to offshore in the area where Akademik Shokalskiy was stuck.”

Here is the story of that forecast:

WUWT and WeatherBell help KUSI-TV with a weather forecasting request from ice-trapped ship in Antarctica Akademik Shokalskiy

The Chinese ship Xue Long, which was caught in the ice pack herself on the way to rescue the Russian vessel, has already reached clear waters. From AMSA:

==============================================================

clip_image002_thumb.jpg
8:00am, Wednesday 8 January 2014
Both Antarctic vessels making progress through ice

The Australian Maritime Safety Authority’s (AMSA) Rescue Coordination Centre (RCC Australia) was informed early this morning that both the Akademik Shokalskiy and the Xue Long have managed to break free from heavy ice in Commonwealth Bay, Antarctica.
At about 730pm AEDT on Tuesday RCC Australia received a message from the Captain of the Akademik Shokalskiy stating that about three hours earlier cracks had started to open in the ice around the trapped vessel.

A short time later the Akademik Shokalskiy began to make slow movements in an attempt to break free from surrounding ice. The Captain reported that at approximately 8pm AEDT they had managed to successfully clear the area containing the heaviest ice and had begun making slow progress north through lighter ice conditions.

Shortly after midnight RCC Australia was advised by the Captain of the Xue Long that, at about 9pm AEDT, it too had managed to break free of the heavy ice and is now making slow progress through lighter ice conditions.

RCC Australia has advised the Captains of both vessels to attempt to reach open waters and advise the RCC once clear of the ice field. The Xue Long has advised RCC Australia it does not require any further assistance at this time. The Akademik Shokalskiy continues to move through the ice field and RCC Australia is awaiting confirmation that it does not require any further assistance.

The United States Coast Guard ice breaker Polar Star will continue to head towards the area until it is clear that both vessels are free of the ice field and no longer in danger.
Media Enquiries: 1300 624 633

Source: http://www.amsa.gov.au/media

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85 Responses to Russian ship ‘Akademik Shokalskiy’ stuck in Antarctic Ice starts moving again, per my forecast – both ships have broken free of ice!

  1. KNR says:

    News headline , Recent thinning of ice in Antarctic clear proof of AGW.

  2. deepslope says:

    excellent forecast, Anthony and Weatherbell!

  3. M Courtney says:

    Also announced from the Aurora Australis by an intrepid embedded journalist:
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/antarctica-live/2014/jan/07/antarctica-live-thanks-rescuers-akademik-shokalskiy
    He also thanks his rescuers.
    I’m sure the thanks to you, Antony, for your assistance is being conveyed privately via Guardian HQ.

  4. Leon0112 says:

    Fossil fueled rescue of Turney causes Antarctic ice break-up. Guardian

  5. OYD says:

    You were dead on. I hope they read more from this site

  6. Rob Ricket says:

    Good call Anthony!

  7. Carbomontanus says:

    Now, who shows really to be both religious and hysteric about it?

  8. Beta Blocker says:

    Have these happy polar explorers announced their schedule for taking another stab at their ill-fated expedition?

  9. Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7 says:

    Good news. It looks like the Polar Star won’t be needed after all and can keep to her original schedule supporting resupply of McMurdo Station.

    Latest position information I can get on the Polar Star is from 2014-01-05@11:59 [presumably UTC] heading due North at 14.8 knots.

  10. artwest says:

    Possible attempt at history re-writing:
    http://www.climate-resistance.org/2014/01/re-writing-mission-history.html

    Lewnadowsky involved, much to no-one’s surprise..

  11. J.Seifert says:

    The Russian ship should go now to pick up its scientists again so they may
    complete their mission in the Antarctic summer….Their scientific equipment
    is still on board…Now comes round two.

  12. John H says:

    Anthony are you going to organize a whip round to help pay for the counseling / therapy that the poor Russian crew will surely need?

  13. bladeshearer says:

    Hmmm – Global resources are redirected and expended in response to alarms from self-selected “climate change scientists,” Guardian journalists and eco-tourists. World media clamor for immediate action. Genuine scientific research suffers consequences. Alarmists come home to heroes’ welcome. Public pays all bills. “Crisis” eventually resolved by natural variation.

    Sound familiar?

  14. tobias smit says:

    Very good news AW for those crews, thank God. This is for them at least back to normal, for the tourists not so much I hope!

  15. john robertson says:

    Oh the irony, if the ship makes it back to Australia before the passtivists (passenger/activists?) who are currently freeloading on board the Auroa.

  16. Mike says:

    So Turney et al may have actually gotten home faster if they stayed on the ship at this rate.

  17. Reg. Blank says:

    Remind me again, what dire emergency was it that required the passengers to be “rescued” when their booked holiday duration came to an end?

    Some sort of “If I don’t get back to work on time, my boss will kill me” life threatening event? Assuming any of them actually work in a proper job? Perhaps the journalists’ expenses were about to expire?

    I was hoping this would have been some kind of Turney Point in public perception of the Climate Change scheme. Did I say Turney Point? I meant Turney Point. Sorry, Turning Point.

  18. Gunga Din says:

    Just out of curiosity, was there ever anything resembling a “thank you” for your and the other (to avoid autospam I won’t use the “D” word) efforts and willingness to help?

    REPLY: No, and I didn’t expect any. Professional assistance is its own reward. – Anthony

  19. A.D. Everard says:

    Excellent news for both crews, and at least they had no whinging greenies aboard.

  20. RomanM says:

    Now, that the “adventure” seems to be coming to an end, it’s time to memorialize it for future generations (sorry, I couldn’t resist): ;)

    An Aussie professor named Turney
    Embarked on an Antarctic journey.
    Following bad advice,
    Mired the ship in the ice,
    So now, he may need an attorney.

  21. Aphan says:

    Isn’t it AMAZING, that a “mere meteorologist” could read charts and determine that a WEEK into the future the weather would change and free them from the ice in that area, but the “leading climate scientist” on that ship couldn’t read charts and determine what the ice in that area had been doing for the past almost 4 years since the Mertz Glacier tongue broke off, OR what it was going to do 24 hours before he had the captain set sail for that area?

    Anthony, it goes without saying, but I’m going to anyway- You have more knowledge and talent in this area than Chris Turney could ever hope to have. Maybe someday he’ll smarten up enough to let you teach him a thing or two. But I won’t hold my breath…:)

  22. Paul Coppin says:

    All of which demonstrates the “distress” was a panic, not a real emergency. All they needed to do was sit tight for a bit, which they were reluctant to do. As a result, millions of taxpayer dollars have been wasted molly-coddling a boatload of intellectual infants. I hope they all get there asses royally sued…

  23. Aphan says:

    Roman! Love it!

    That wind direction and knots,
    Would change said Anthony Watts.
    But they wouldn’t stay,
    In the ice at Watt’s Bay
    Unlike Mawson, they panicked…poor sots!

  24. Eric Worrall says:

    If people who call themselves climate scientists bothered to learn how the weather works, they might not have gotten themselves into such a pickle.

  25. Leon Brozyna says:

    What’s so surprising about this? This site and Anthony deal in reality while Professor Turkey conducts his science in his world of fantasy.

    So who gets to port first … Akademik Shokalskiy or Professor Turkey (I sorta mean Turney)?

  26. Carbomontanus says:

    Ladies and gentlemen

    Last time I really heard of politicians who came and stole the true science and set their severely biased lobby to find out what the politicians should be the scientific results,….

    ……..was under and shortly after the Glasnost and Perestrojka under the late Soviet Union.

    I also am aware of something that is called “scientific socialism” that was quite compulsory in the DDR, that was later betrayed as “Dictatorship of the dilettants”, not even the “proletariat”

    For further efficient research and digging into climate surrealism I do have Maos little red book at hand for standard reference. .

    Believe it or not, 2 days ago I found for the first time in my life “Twent-one conditions” on Wikipedia, known as “moskvatesene” here in Norway. A really very interesting cathechism of Anno Dazumal to look into. On “democratic centralism” and all that, along with so called “Dialectic materialism”.

    Quite funny, but perhaps not so PARA- DOX after all, rather really and deeply ORTO-DOX, I have a strong and very peculiar impression that very traditional and vulgar Marxist- leninism in 3rd and 4rth generation is simply equal to climate surrealism and denialism.

    Remember that, what has really lived in religious and fanatic & militant opposition and conflict with nature and with reality, and within within strickty unnatural and artificial end- conditions and frames of referens fot true submission and worship now for generations, ……..

    ….. is so called “scientific” socialism and Dia- lectic materialism.

    Thus, it really should not surprize us too much.

    But maybe you haven`t had the opportunity to turn on DDR Deutschlandsender whenever you whish to check up their very constant and worshipful routines during several decades, and in a language that you can understand more or less.

    Thus maybe you are hardly aware of where you have it from, because you only had it in vulgar translations for political and systematic “alternative” “Scientific” studies and homework.

    But those twenty-one conditions are now translated officially and published on Wikipedia.

    Maybe you recall something very deeply in your own heart and CREDO and Raisings?

    Because I am rathe extra made immune both to that leninism and to climate surrealism, living so close to its national and bloody origins and sources.

  27. Don says:

    Alan, Aphan, Gail and all the other commenters; many thanks. Highly informative and eye opening comments the past two weeks. Hope all the crews are well, and they can get on with their missions.

  28. DT says:

    So a ship of climate change scientists can’t predict when sea ice will trap them, but a “climate change denier” can predict when they will be freed.

    That tells you all you need to know about this debate.

    “But…but…weather is not climate!!!”

    Yeah…pound snow climate changers.

  29. Mike Ozanne says:

    So Anthony, do you have a forecast for 2100, If you’ve helped them out with one problem you might as well get stuck into the rest…….

  30. London247 says:

    Excellent work Mr Watts. I am glad that the crews of both ships are are safe.

    Not sure which jurstiction the charter was drawn up under but under English contract law, the charter by Prof Turney is now extinguished due to the contract being frustrated by an act of one of the parties. If that is the case there is no obligation for the Russians to pick up Prof Turney and his party. I hope the Russians make port before the greenies. Suggested title for the movie
    ” Ice Cold Milk Shake in Auckland”

  31. Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7 says:

    Reg. Blank says:
    January 7, 2014 at 2:00 pm

    Remind me again, what dire emergency was it that required the passengers to be “rescued” when their booked holiday duration came to an end?

    Paul Coppin says:
    January 7, 2014 at 2:18 pm

    All of which demonstrates the “distress” was a panic, not a real emergency. All they needed to do was sit tight for a bit, which they were reluctant to do.

    I think criticism of the evacuation decision is unwarranted. The Akademik Shokalskiy was stuck in ice; if the wind coming in off the ocean intensified there was a real danger the hull could be compromised. In that situation, the passengers contributed nothing to the essential operation of the ship and little if anything to the safety of themselves and other passengers. Getting them out of the way left the professional crew with only the ship to worry about. Even so, wind conditions prevented helicopter operations for several days. When a flight window opened up, they took it. IMHO that was the right decision; I’d bet their insurance company insisted on it.

  32. Alan Robertson says:

    Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7 says:
    January 7, 2014 at 2:49 pm

    I think criticism of the evacuation decision is unwarranted.
    __________________
    I think most of us would agree.
    Of course, there would be a few knotheads that would rather have seen the passengers plucking penguin feathers on YouTube.

  33. rogerknights says:

    Gone with the wind.

  34. negrum says:

    Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7 says:
    January 7, 2014 at 2:49 pm
    —-l
    Agreed. It could just as easily have gone the other way. A clear case of damned if you do and damned if you don’t by public opinion.

  35. Rob Ricket says:

    A climate alarmist named Turney.
    Lamented the burning Gaia.
    Set sail for the pole, but the ice took its toll.
    So he told the crew of the Shokalski I’ll see ya!

  36. Mario Lento says:

    Congratlations, An-th-ony! I proudly showed off to many that I am in contact with the owner of the most reknown skeptical blog site in the world, who was asked to help the situation with his knowledge of weather and climate. He provided the helpful information and weather report that the climate scientists on board the ship that got stranded in ice while looking for more global warming evidence. Evidently they don’t understand weather nor climate! I will try to call a talk show host and give them the news. This is big news and is worthy of interest due to the irony!

  37. Gail Combs says:

    Reg. Blank says:
    January 7, 2014 at 2:00 pm

    Remind me again, what dire emergency was it that required the passengers to be “rescued” when their booked holiday duration came to an end?…
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    It was to keep the Russian crew from tossing them one and all bodily on to the ice.

  38. Mario Lento says:

    Ugh – run on sentence: Reposted for cogent reasons.
    Congratlations, An-th-ony! I proudly showed off to many that I am in contact with the owner of the most reknown skeptical blog site in the world, who was asked to help the situation with his knowledge of weather and climate. He provided the helpful information and weather report (that the climate scientists on board the ship that got stranded in ice while looking for more global warming evidence) couldn’t conceive, even with their vast resources of climate scientists buddies. Evidently they don’t understand weather nor climate! His weather report manifested on time per his forecast! I will try to call a talk show host and give them the news about WUWT gets it right. This is big news and is worthy of interest due to the irony!

  39. Michael Moon says:

    The professional sailors on scene chose to stay, confident that the weather would soon release their ship. It did.

    The so-called “Climate Change Professor” on scene has made a fool of himself in so many ways! First, towing the Argo ATV was bizarrely risky and stupid. This vehicle goes about 3 mph in the water, nice smooth water. Second, clearly the captain demanded that the passengers return so the ship could depart, but they had not taken precautions to be able to do so. Third, now Turney the Turkey tries to downplay the actual motivation for the trip, which was to promote Global Warming to build the worth of his green-products company.

    He disrupted the schedule of four other ships, caused the research programs of three other groups to lose weeks of opportunity in the short Antarctic summer, and issued a Mayday under very dubious circumstances. Why does anyone defend him?

  40. kevin says:

    “It seems my forecast worked out well.”

    With all due respect, forecasting that a ship stuck in ice will become unstuck is not a difficult forecast to make. It’d be like forecasting that all of this cold weather in America right now will eventually end.

  41. Gary Pearse says:

    As I said on the original thread on the weather forecast for the ships, Anthony and Joe should have been a much bigger story in this. Is there no decency at all among these guys? Did the Stoat or even Gavin blog a congratulations to Anthony. You and Joe should at least write a paper on this should-be forecast of the decade for AMS – it is a beautiful piece of work. What a giant you truly are.

  42. David L says:

    Weather forecast:1 Climate forecast:0

    Great job Anthony!!!!

  43. Gino says:

    one meteorologist does what a an entire ship full of ‘climate scientists’ can’t.

  44. Caleb says:

    Congratulations, Anthony and WeatherBELL. Great call. I wouldn’t have wanted to make that call, a week into the future, with so many watching.

    You may not get a whole lot of cheering for your success, but if the forecast had been a bust I suspect we never would have heard the end of it.

  45. Mario Lento says:

    kevin says:
    January 7, 2014 at 3:28 pm
    “It seems my forecast worked out well.”

    With all due respect, forecasting that a ship stuck in ice will become unstuck is not a difficult forecast to make. It’d be like forecasting that all of this cold weather in America right now will eventually end.
    ++++++++++
    Kevin: Your lack of respect shows through your drivel. Do you know what “with all due respect means?” The forecast was specific in when the turn around would happen. Did you read the forecast?

  46. Brian McCool says:

    I might have missed something, but now it’s entirely possible that the Russian ship will make it back home before the “survivors” do because they’re now stuck on a ship that has to finish its original mission first.

  47. Steve from Rockwood says:

    Anthony should start a weather App for stranded turkeys – “it’s just weather”.

  48. It doesn't add up... says:

    With all due respect, forecasting that a ship stuck in ice will become unstuck is not a difficult forecast to make.

    Perhaps you’re an expert? The Russian forecast I reported a couple of days ago said there was a narrow window of opportunity for the vessels to free themselves 7th/8th – after which the winds would reverse back to Easterlies that would have kept the vessels trapped through the Antarctic winter if the Polar Star proved unable to reach them before the ice became too thick. Ice was reported as 3-4m thick – the Polar Star can just about break through when it’s 6m.

  49. Jimbo says:

    Good call. You will get no thanks though.

    Now that Mr. Turkey’s debacle is almost over, maybe he will view climate change a little differently. He has been thoroughly humiliated by ‘melting’ Antarctica and can now scurry off with his tale between his legs. He should never try this nonsense again and an investigation needs to be made into his disastrous misadventure based on voodoo climastrology.

  50. negrum says:

    kevin says:
    January 7, 2014 at 3:28 pm

    “It seems my forecast worked out well.”

    With all due respect, forecasting that a ship stuck in ice will become unstuck is not a difficult forecast to make.
    —-l
    Would you say, with or without respect, that accurately forecasting weather conditions that would enable a ship in the polar regions to break free from ice 7 to 8 days in the future is difficult? I await your reply with interest.

  51. Carbomontanus says:

    I have also asked at the very fameous institute of “psi Scientific International” who are the “Climate clowns?”

    and got a very long list.

    Can anyone here try and guess whether that list did contain anyone of themselves?

    Some minutes ago, I did make you all aware of where to find LENINs 21 rules of so called Democratic centralism. And of Scientific leadership. But I can repeat it.

    It is found under the keyeword “twenty-one conditions” on wikipedia, that is worth reading and comparing.

  52. jorgekafkazar says:

    From http://www.fleetmon.com/maritimenews/2014/2945/research-vessel-shokalskiy-may-become-antarctic-fl/

    January 3, 2014: “World media made such a fuss over the story one could think it was a Titanik tragedy turned into success. It was clear…that the passengers were in no real danger. They’ve been taken from Shokalskiy simply because they were…a nuisance…and eating away food supplies…required for the crew…. Passengers were mostly scientists, or so they say, who were trying to get yet more proofs of devastating global warming effects. Well, if getting trapped in ice is a result of global warming, they definitely found what they’ve been after. The public didn’t miss the irony of it…” –Mikhail Voytenko

  53. GeologyJim says:

    Hey Kevin (you twit) –

    Anthony’s prediction was for a specific result on a specific timeline. And he was correct.

    Your strawman (no timeline, no result) was like Gavin arguing a prediction of sunrise.

    Get a life. The Antarctic continues to grow ice (that would be frozen sea water) faster that melt losses. Warmists lose.

  54. James (Aus.) says:

    Mario Lento and Negrum have already said it but you have to wonder why a poster like Kevin attempts to belittle the forecast provided by Anthony W.

    The illustrious Kevin decided to omit any reference to Anthony’s critical and accurate time resolution. Instead Kevin decided to make an inane and stupid comment; we are now waiting for him to predict the likelihood of sunrise tomorrow. Or the fate of the Earth when a local red giant expands to full size.

    Kevin no doubt is a troll but at least he serves a function; if you want to find disingenuity and feeble intellect look no further than a Warmist parrot.

  55. Curious George says:

    I frequently ask alarmists: You produce 100-year climate forecasts, but where is a reliable 100-hour weather forecast? And then Anthony produces a reliable 200-hour weather forecast. Congratulations!

    Please don’t do that to me again.

  56. TRM says:

    See what happens when you follow the science? Accurate predictions! What a concept. Kudos to Mr Watts & Weatherbell.

  57. dp says:

    The pseudo scientists, friends, and family had to leave the Akedemic Disaster – the bar was depleted.

  58. anvilman says:

    It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salarydepends on his not understandeing it….Upton Sinclair

  59. Old Ranga says:

    Paul Coppin says:
    January 7, 2014 at 2:18 pm

    All of which demonstrates the “distress” was a panic, not a real emergency. All they needed to do was sit tight for a bit, which they were reluctant to do.
    ———————————-
    Simple reason for transferring the climate tourists – the Russian ship reported on the shipping industry website that the 52 tourists were eating them out of food. The ship only had limited supplies left x 74 people – food not a problem x 22 crew.

  60. RoHa says:

    “All of which demonstrates the “distress” was a panic, not a real emergency.”

    1. They ran out of peanut butter and banana milk shakes. For climate scientists, that counts as a real emergency.
    2. They were running out of booze. On a Russian ship, that counts as a real emergency.
    2. The crew seem to have been thoroughly fed up with the antics of the passengers. That counts as real distress.

  61. RoHa says:

    “Also announced from the Aurora Australis by an intrepid embedded journalist:… He also thanks his rescuers.”

    I’m glad somebody did.

  62. tmitsss says:

    You may notice that this morning someone took the time to give you credit in the comments at the RT site. You are welcome.

    REPLY: Thanks, with thousands a day here, I seldom read comments elsewhere, so didn’t notice. – Anthony

  63. Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7 says:

    kevin says:
    January 7, 2014 at 3:28 pm

    With all due respect, forecasting that a ship stuck in ice will become unstuck is not a difficult forecast to make.

    Well yes. It is inarguably true that a ship stuck in sea ice will not stay there forever. But you have apparently neglected to mention that becoming unstuck is only one of the possible outcomes; being crushed and sunk is the other. Leaving the crew with the ship was a gamble, albeit an apparently well-informed and very reasonable one. But the expected outcome was by no means assured — polar exploration is littered with corpses who all took well-informed and very reasonable gambles.

  64. Brad R says:

    You might enjoy my modest attempt at a musical parody about this whole saga:

    Ride, Doctor, ride, upon your frozen ship
    Party hard with the tourists you brought on your trip
    Ride, Doctor, ride, upon your frozen ship
    Pray that someone will save you from your planning slip

    http://www.wendymcelroy.com/news.php?extend.5747
    Feel free to repost as desired.

  65. Chuck Nolan says:

    kevin says:
    January 7, 2014 at 3:28 pm

    “It seems my forecast worked out well.”

    With all due respect, forecasting that a ship stuck in ice will become unstuck is not a difficult forecast to make. It’d be like forecasting that all of this cold weather in America right now will eventually end.
    ————————————————————————
    I’m not sure how difficult his forecast was although, I don’t recall him using the word “eventually”. He did just nail it to the day. I bet he could’ve kept them from getting stuck in the first place…if they’d asked him for a forecast in-route to the Antarctic.
    Maybe next time they’ll ask him, before they get stuck.
    cn

  66. Brian H says:

    Too bad the Fools weren’t still aboard the AS. Then you could have really rubbed it in: “Climatologists Saved From Own Folly by Meteorologist-Forecast Natural Wind Shift“.

    I hope the AS’ captain comes out spitting marlin spikes at Turkey.

  67. Brian H says:

    James (Aus.) says:
    January 7, 2014 at 4:35 pm

    Mario Lento and Negrum have already said it but you have to wonder why a poster poser like Kevin attempts to belittle the forecast provided by Anthony W.

    FIFY

  68. Carbomontanus says:

    How much bullshit?

    We read it again. If you cannot make forecast for 10 seconds… for 10 days,… for 10 weeks,… how can you possibly make forecast for 100 years? Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha….

    Eve Antony Watts will be able to confess that such arguments ar quite dubious and quite often silly. They simply hide ( Cfr. Haid the declain, do immoral tricks…) what is supposed to be made forecasts about.

    This is severely obvious by a lot of principles including Schrödingers uncertainty principle, that making forecasts on short term and of small things in detail may be rather dubious, tricky, and even impossible, but in the long run and on the large scale, forecasts of the same matter may become more and more safe and certain, simply by natural law and how things are, and in a most obvious way.

    And we can exel in examples.

    Further, it is most often a question also about what we want to find out and / or know, and for what purpose. And to what degree of accuracy or certainty.

    Being unaware of theese things or cofusing theese things in an acive way is quite often both silly and immoral.

    As for that ship, Mr Watts is a meteorologist. Here where I live at 60 deg North, certain things are very regular and simple. Christmas or rather St.Thomas 21 dec (formerly by the Julian calender it was Lucia) in light or sunshine minimum. Then end of February comes minimum temperature, and in Mars, Minimum precipitation.

    On the other side of the year it goes a bit faster, try and explain why.

    St.Hans is maximum light, July is the warmest month, and beginning of August is maximum rain, this being the normal climate in the so called West-European Monsune or Antipassat belt. With rather large deviations to it from year to year and rather unpredictable; that phaenomena we call “Weather”.

    Antony Watts will be able to explain this to you, provided that he is a qualified meteorologist.

    Thus, forecasting that it is not yet minimum summer ice in the Antarctic is severely easy. That it is also weather in the Antarctic waters , can be predicted with absolute certainty or “beyond any reasonable doubt”.

    The strange thing here is that I have to discuss this for you.

  69. Steve says:

    ABC now saying that the ships got free because of thawing ice. Article does not mention wind shifts at all. Typical.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-08/ships-freed-from-antarctic-ice/5189760?section=tas

  70. Ted Clayton says:

    kevin said January 7, 2014 at 3:28 pm;

    “It seems my forecast worked out well.”

    With all due respect, forecasting that a ship stuck in ice will become unstuck is not a difficult forecast to make. It’d be like forecasting that all of this cold weather in America right now will eventually end.

    In the card-game of Blackjack or 21, rudimentary probability will tell us the likelihood that various card-combinations (‘hands’) will be dealt. We can casually ‘predict’ that eventually various hands will appear, with a graded series of likelihoods.

    A weather forecast, though, is the equivalent of knowing what the likelihood is of changing an existing card-hand into a better (or worse!) one, with the unknown card in the upcoming deal. This is done by knowing what cards are still in the deck, and how they can affect & interact with the cards in the current hand.

    It’s a matter of playing the game ‘at a whole different level’. Yeah, we know that an “arctic outbreak” or so-called “polar vortex” will end (duh) … but Mr. Watts can assess the unseen cards in the weather deck, and anticipate a specific ‘hand’ or series of hands, or modifications of hands, as the meteorological cards come off the top of the deck, over the coming days and parts of days.

    It’s a darn good trick, and even though he won’t break the weather-Casino bank every time he plays, you can safely “forecast” that the house-managers and dealers will break out in a sweat, each time they see him come in the door. ;)

  71. Carbomontanus says:

    Dr. Steve
    That is very typical of very poor understanding of basic reality and physics.

    I did google that ship, it is originally Finnish and ice class A (They may have very tough ice in the Baltic sea) and it has got 2 decks and a bar and library and sauna for cruise passengers. It has been bought by the russians and made several tours through the northeast passage. Having tourists on board seems normal to that ship design and it may be a way to keep that ship afloat and paid for, for its ocean reseach purposes. Thus not to be bullied. That sort of behavious may rather make a fool of yourself, betraying that you rather are a political dilettant and a dialectic materialist on election campaighn..

    But what one should have grasped rather automatically just by thinking of the situation, is the Drama of the Antarctic ocean, the roaring fourties and the fierceful fifties. And those very huge and fameous icebergs.

    What was it? 3-4-5-6 meters of ice? Does tat “thaw” in a few days under fog and snowstorms? Conditions under which even a very large and strong chineese icebreaker runs tight?

    Elementary ideas of ice and water, of Nature I would say, should rather not be absent, even if you are a journalist at the ABC.

    I use the very ugly word “Dia- lectic materialism!” whenever I stuck on that kind of obviously industyrialized, quite arrogant and vulgar religious illusions.

  72. Ric Werme says:

    kevin says:
    January 7, 2014 at 3:28 pm

    With all due respect, forecasting that a ship stuck in ice will become unstuck is not a difficult forecast to make. It’d be like forecasting that all of this cold weather in America right now will eventually end.

    Oh, don’t be a troll. Anthony didn’t forecast “the ship will become unstuck,” he forecast “I had looked at what was happening and saw what I thought might be an opening in 7-8 days based on the forecast graphics from WeatherBell, where the winds would shift to offshore in the area where Akademik Shokalskiy was stuck.”

    You can go back and find the date of the forecast. Let’s see you do better. You might be able to point out that “offshore” is probably not “north-westerly” but I’d recommend you come up with a good case.

  73. woz says:

    Also moved by the muse!

    (Mod – apologies if there are words here that trigger autospam – I don’t post often enough to be familiar)

    THE HUNTING OF THE SPARK (of heat)
    With humble apologies to Lewis Carroll

    Brave Chris Turney often paced on the deck,
    Or would make hockey sticks in the bow:
    And had often (Chris said) saved the whole ship from wreck,
    Though none of the sailors knew how.

    The group was complete, with kids and a wife,
    Plus some warmingist scientists all experts –
    Each a drip under pressure – all headed for strife
    (These are better described as just “spurts”!)

    Of course no contingent so brave and undaunted
    Could venture too far without Press.
    So the Guardian sent and so proudly then flaunted
    Reporters to add to the mess.

    “We’ll show those deniers!” bold Chris Turney cried
    As he landed his party on ice;
    “We know without doubt that the ice has all fried
    So the beaches will all be quite nice.”

    “We’ll show those deniers!” he’s now said it twice
    That alone should encourage the crew.
    “We’ll show those deniers!” he’s now said it thrice:
    What he tells you three times must be true.

    The poor Russian crew shook their heads in dismay;
    Their care-filled advice all ignored.
    “The ice? You are wrong. It’s not melted away!
    Your theories are totally flawed!”

    Ignoring this wisdom and pressing on blindly
    The Turney contingent went boldly
    Into the ice field that proved not to be kindly
    And an ending that beckoned them coldly.

    At deniers Chris Turney continued to jeer
    As lots of “selfies” with penguins they took.
    But it soon became clear that no heat would appear.
    AGW was not looking good.

    They hunted till darkness came on, but they found
    Not a beach or a palm tree. Those asses
    Tried so hard to find things in the air or the ground.
    But no sign of those greenhouse gasses.

    In the midst of the search – trying hard not to play,
    In the midst of their laughter and glee,
    Climate Change had softly just vanished away—
    For CC was “just normal”, you see.

    And then the thick ice that was lurking around
    Surrounded the vessel and trapped it.
    There was just no way out. An escape must be found.
    We can’t sail through this ice so compacted!

    Saviours from Australia and China came fast
    And a Yank ship – a real show stopper.
    But the ice was so tough – the world looked on aghast
    As the group came so close to a cropper!

    But luck doesn’t mean that you need half a clue
    As this ship of fools demonstrates clearly.
    The bad weather eased – out the warmingists flew
    Leaving ship and the crew to pay dearly.

    There are lessons that thinkers can gain from this tale
    Lessons we ignore at our peril.
    Use the scientific method. It’s hearty and hale.
    All other approaches are feral!

    Just remember, “It’s warm!” was the sound in their ears,
    And they tried to believe they were hot.
    But it wasn’t too long before laughter and jeers:
    And the ominous words “No it’s not!”

  74. Anthony Watts says:

    @Ric Werme

    Here is a map showing wind data and the “offshore” winds today. The small green circle marks the approximate position of the ‘Akademik Shokalskiy’ when it was trapped up until this morning.

  75. Where in the world doesn’t the weather change if you wait long enough? :-)

    I thought that it was a complete waste of resources to “rescue” those not in danger. The worst that they were likely to experience was dry rations for a fortnight (if the master of the vessel could keep his crew seeing the funny side and keep coming up with scary rumours to “leak” to the passengers).

    Perhaps it’s just me who’d likes to see the warmists marinate in their own stupidity.

  76. John F. Hultquist says:

    at 10:01 pm

    beautiful

  77. Brian H says:

    A-thony nailed it, to the day. 8 days in the future! That’s pushing the limits, and warrants every bit of self-congratulation he feels like induging in, and all the kudos he receives.

  78. Lewis P Buckingham says:

    Steve says:
    January 7, 2014 at 6:27 pm

    ‘ABC now saying that the ships got free because of thawing ice. Article does not mention wind shifts at all. Typical.’
    If this scientific commentary continues it will become time to outsource scientific comment on the ABC to a more credible source.

  79. Admad says:

    I think we should all offer up a humble prayer of thanks for the safety of the mariners aboard both the Xue Long and AS. This could have ended so much worse. There are some serious questions to be answered now (I sincerely hope!)

  80. bushbunny says:

    So what? No pun intended. How embarrassing for the Russian and Chinese captains to be rescued by the ‘dreaded’ Americans? I can imagine their radio contacts. “Get out and pull the boat free yourselves, before the yanks come, or else don’t bother coming home!”

  81. Bob Koss says:

    This fiasco is like the Energizer Bunny it just keeps going and going.

    The Aurora Australis is now being prevented from unloading their cargo due to winds keeping them 20 miles away from Casey.
    http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=2627

    Looks like the Shokalskiy will make it back to NZ before their former passengers.

  82. Mario Lento says:

    The real danger in climate science starts when they actually believe their own BS, and then act on it.

  83. As they say in Brazilian Portuguese “quando a água bate na bunda” (translation: when water knocks on the butt) we seek to who really knows!

  84. Ted Clayton says:

    Notice that the Chinese light icebreaker Xue Long stayed where it was (supposedly) stuck, as the icepack loosened up. They waited for the (‘merely’) ice-strengthened Akademik Shokalskiy, the less-capable vessel, to slowly work it’s way out, first. Only then did the Chinese icebreaker make good its own escape. This is not only ‘classy’, it’s “proper operations protocol”.

    The great thing about the winds changing and allowing the AS to escape (That the XL itself was actually “trapped”, was questionable all along. They ‘inserted’ themselves as close as they could to the AS, and then remain in the best position they could achieve, ‘just in case’. Again, this is “proper operations”.) is that the Russian ice-hardened cruise/expedition vessel already has paying passengers ($18,000 to $28,000 apiece) waiting with fingers & toes all crossed, for a previously scheduled upcoming outing to the Ross Sea & environs.

    Yep. The Akademik Shokalshiy is going to make a flying resupply, refuel, and passenger-loading stop in New Zealand …. and head right straight back for Antarctica. That is the “best revenge” outcome, right there.

    Although we all ‘understood’ that the winds would probably change so as to release these two vessels from the ice (and a few have the chops to actually forecast that event) … it really would not have been a problem or embarrassment for anyone involved, had the American Polar Star heavy icebreaker arrived before the winds.

    Neither Captain Igor Kiselyov of the Akademik Shokalshiy, nor Captain Wang Jianzhong of the Xue Long did (or failed to do) anything that will reflect negatively on themselves, their Command, or their respective nations. Quite the contrary.

    And neither Moscow nor Beijing would grit their teeth and wince, to see the “polar-class” American heavy icebreaker show up and free their ships. All three national parties struggle to justify & fund icebreakers and the polar research which they enable. All will derive valuable ‘political mileage’ from this affair, in terms of illustrating & publicizing the importance of national investments in ice-challenged maritime and polar enterprises.

    I hesitate to commend the Mawson Expedition on their role here …. but ‘just sayin’. ;)

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