Russian ship 'Akademik Shokalskiy' stuck in Antarctic Ice starts moving again, per my forecast – both ships have broken free of ice!

It seems my forecast worked out well. From RT news:

A Russian-built ship stranded in the Antarctic ice has started moving away from the ice fields after a change of wind cleared its path. A Chinese icebreaker, which was caught herself on the way to rescue the vessel, has already reached clear waters.

Luckily, as the weather changed the danger threatening the trapped vessels decreased.

“The situation is favorable now. First, the wind changed direction from an Easterly to a North-Westerly, which changed the direction of ice drift. A large crack formed in the ice, and the ship is now navigating it,” Yury Volgov, director of the Far-Eastern Hydrometeorology Research Institute, which owns the Academician Shokalsky, told media.

The ship may escape the clutches of the ice field quite soon, ship captain Igor Kiselyov said.

“We are sailing at low speed, changing courses. We’ve traveled 20 miles so far. It’s difficult so far, with dense fog and visibility no further than 500 meters. But the ice is thinner and broken here, so we’re moving,” he said.

WUWT readers may recall that when U.S. TV meteorologists, including yours truly, were asked to assist in weather forecasting for the stranded vessel, I made a prediction on December  31st:

“In a couple of minutes John Coleman was back on the phone to me, he wanted my assessment of the maps. I had looked at what was happening and saw what I thought might be an opening in 7-8 days based on the forecast graphics from WeatherBell, where the winds would shift to offshore in the area where Akademik Shokalskiy was stuck.”

Here is the story of that forecast:

WUWT and WeatherBell help KUSI-TV with a weather forecasting request from ice-trapped ship in Antarctica Akademik Shokalskiy

The Chinese ship Xue Long, which was caught in the ice pack herself on the way to rescue the Russian vessel, has already reached clear waters. From AMSA:

==============================================================

clip_image002_thumb.jpg

8:00am, Wednesday 8 January 2014

Both Antarctic vessels making progress through ice

The Australian Maritime Safety Authority’s (AMSA) Rescue Coordination Centre (RCC Australia) was informed early this morning that both the Akademik Shokalskiy and the Xue Long have managed to break free from heavy ice in Commonwealth Bay, Antarctica.

At about 730pm AEDT on Tuesday RCC Australia received a message from the Captain of the Akademik Shokalskiy stating that about three hours earlier cracks had started to open in the ice around the trapped vessel.

A short time later the Akademik Shokalskiy began to make slow movements in an attempt to break free from surrounding ice. The Captain reported that at approximately 8pm AEDT they had managed to successfully clear the area containing the heaviest ice and had begun making slow progress north through lighter ice conditions.

Shortly after midnight RCC Australia was advised by the Captain of the Xue Long that, at about 9pm AEDT, it too had managed to break free of the heavy ice and is now making slow progress through lighter ice conditions.

RCC Australia has advised the Captains of both vessels to attempt to reach open waters and advise the RCC once clear of the ice field. The Xue Long has advised RCC Australia it does not require any further assistance at this time. The Akademik Shokalskiy continues to move through the ice field and RCC Australia is awaiting confirmation that it does not require any further assistance.

The United States Coast Guard ice breaker Polar Star will continue to head towards the area until it is clear that both vessels are free of the ice field and no longer in danger.

Media Enquiries: 1300 624 633

Source: http://www.amsa.gov.au/media

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KNR
January 7, 2014 12:56 pm

News headline , Recent thinning of ice in Antarctic clear proof of AGW.

deepslope
January 7, 2014 1:04 pm

excellent forecast, Anthony and Weatherbell!

January 7, 2014 1:07 pm

Also announced from the Aurora Australis by an intrepid embedded journalist:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/antarctica-live/2014/jan/07/antarctica-live-thanks-rescuers-akademik-shokalskiy
He also thanks his rescuers.
I’m sure the thanks to you, Antony, for your assistance is being conveyed privately via Guardian HQ.

Leon0112
January 7, 2014 1:08 pm

Fossil fueled rescue of Turney causes Antarctic ice break-up. Guardian

OYD
January 7, 2014 1:09 pm

You were dead on. I hope they read more from this site

Rob Ricket
January 7, 2014 1:12 pm

Good call Anthony!

Carbomontanus
January 7, 2014 1:12 pm

Now, who shows really to be both religious and hysteric about it?

Beta Blocker
January 7, 2014 1:30 pm

Have these happy polar explorers announced their schedule for taking another stab at their ill-fated expedition?

January 7, 2014 1:32 pm

Good news. It looks like the Polar Star won’t be needed after all and can keep to her original schedule supporting resupply of McMurdo Station.
Latest position information I can get on the Polar Star is from 2014-01-05@11:59 [presumably UTC] heading due North at 14.8 knots.

artwest
January 7, 2014 1:32 pm

Possible attempt at history re-writing:
http://www.climate-resistance.org/2014/01/re-writing-mission-history.html
Lewnadowsky involved, much to no-one’s surprise..

January 7, 2014 1:38 pm

The Russian ship should go now to pick up its scientists again so they may
complete their mission in the Antarctic summer….Their scientific equipment
is still on board…Now comes round two.

Carbomontanus
Reply to  J.Seifert
January 7, 2014 2:37 pm

Ladies and gentlemen
Last time I really heard of politicians who came and stole the true science and set their severely biased lobby to find out what the politicians should be the scientific results,….
……..was under and shortly after the Glasnost and Perestrojka under the late Soviet Union.
I also am aware of something that is called “scientific socialism” that was quite compulsory in the DDR, that was later betrayed as “Dictatorship of the dilettants”, not even the “proletariat”
For further efficient research and digging into climate surrealism I do have Maos little red book at hand for standard reference. .
Believe it or not, 2 days ago I found for the first time in my life “Twent-one conditions” on Wikipedia, known as “moskvatesene” here in Norway. A really very interesting cathechism of Anno Dazumal to look into. On “democratic centralism” and all that, along with so called “Dialectic materialism”.
Quite funny, but perhaps not so PARA- DOX after all, rather really and deeply ORTO-DOX, I have a strong and very peculiar impression that very traditional and vulgar Marxist- leninism in 3rd and 4rth generation is simply equal to climate surrealism and denialism.
Remember that, what has really lived in religious and fanatic & militant opposition and conflict with nature and with reality, and within within strickty unnatural and artificial end- conditions and frames of referens fot true submission and worship now for generations, ……..
….. is so called “scientific” socialism and Dia- lectic materialism.
Thus, it really should not surprize us too much.
But maybe you haven`t had the opportunity to turn on DDR Deutschlandsender whenever you whish to check up their very constant and worshipful routines during several decades, and in a language that you can understand more or less.
Thus maybe you are hardly aware of where you have it from, because you only had it in vulgar translations for political and systematic “alternative” “Scientific” studies and homework.
But those twenty-one conditions are now translated officially and published on Wikipedia.
Maybe you recall something very deeply in your own heart and CREDO and Raisings?
Because I am rathe extra made immune both to that leninism and to climate surrealism, living so close to its national and bloody origins and sources.

John H
January 7, 2014 1:40 pm

Anthony are you going to organize a whip round to help pay for the counseling / therapy that the poor Russian crew will surely need?

bladeshearer
January 7, 2014 1:43 pm

Hmmm – Global resources are redirected and expended in response to alarms from self-selected “climate change scientists,” Guardian journalists and eco-tourists. World media clamor for immediate action. Genuine scientific research suffers consequences. Alarmists come home to heroes’ welcome. Public pays all bills. “Crisis” eventually resolved by natural variation.
Sound familiar?

tobias smit
January 7, 2014 1:46 pm

Very good news AW for those crews, thank God. This is for them at least back to normal, for the tourists not so much I hope!

john robertson
January 7, 2014 1:48 pm

Oh the irony, if the ship makes it back to Australia before the passtivists (passenger/activists?) who are currently freeloading on board the Auroa.

Mike
January 7, 2014 1:50 pm

So Turney et al may have actually gotten home faster if they stayed on the ship at this rate.

Reg. Blank
January 7, 2014 2:00 pm

Remind me again, what dire emergency was it that required the passengers to be “rescued” when their booked holiday duration came to an end?
Some sort of “If I don’t get back to work on time, my boss will kill me” life threatening event? Assuming any of them actually work in a proper job? Perhaps the journalists’ expenses were about to expire?
I was hoping this would have been some kind of Turney Point in public perception of the Climate Change scheme. Did I say Turney Point? I meant Turney Point. Sorry, Turning Point.

January 7, 2014 2:05 pm

Just out of curiosity, was there ever anything resembling a “thank you” for your and the other (to avoid autospam I won’t use the “D” word) efforts and willingness to help?
REPLY: No, and I didn’t expect any. Professional assistance is its own reward. – Anthony

January 7, 2014 2:11 pm

Excellent news for both crews, and at least they had no whinging greenies aboard.

RomanM
January 7, 2014 2:14 pm

Now, that the “adventure” seems to be coming to an end, it’s time to memorialize it for future generations (sorry, I couldn’t resist): 😉
An Aussie professor named Turney
Embarked on an Antarctic journey.
Following bad advice,
Mired the ship in the ice,
So now, he may need an attorney.

Aphan
January 7, 2014 2:17 pm

Isn’t it AMAZING, that a “mere meteorologist” could read charts and determine that a WEEK into the future the weather would change and free them from the ice in that area, but the “leading climate scientist” on that ship couldn’t read charts and determine what the ice in that area had been doing for the past almost 4 years since the Mertz Glacier tongue broke off, OR what it was going to do 24 hours before he had the captain set sail for that area?
Anthony, it goes without saying, but I’m going to anyway- You have more knowledge and talent in this area than Chris Turney could ever hope to have. Maybe someday he’ll smarten up enough to let you teach him a thing or two. But I won’t hold my breath…:)

Paul Coppin
January 7, 2014 2:18 pm

All of which demonstrates the “distress” was a panic, not a real emergency. All they needed to do was sit tight for a bit, which they were reluctant to do. As a result, millions of taxpayer dollars have been wasted molly-coddling a boatload of intellectual infants. I hope they all get there asses royally sued…

Aphan
January 7, 2014 2:23 pm

Roman! Love it!
That wind direction and knots,
Would change said Anthony Watts.
But they wouldn’t stay,
In the ice at Watt’s Bay
Unlike Mawson, they panicked…poor sots!

Admin
January 7, 2014 2:25 pm

If people who call themselves climate scientists bothered to learn how the weather works, they might not have gotten themselves into such a pickle.

Leon Brozyna
January 7, 2014 2:26 pm

What’s so surprising about this? This site and Anthony deal in reality while Professor Turkey conducts his science in his world of fantasy.
So who gets to port first … Akademik Shokalskiy or Professor Turkey (I sorta mean Turney)?

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