By Paul Homewood
The December floods in England have been a big story recently, and, of course, still remain a problem. The term “extreme weather” has been bandied about, along with the inevitable connotation of “climate change”. ( I may be wrong, but years ago we rarely seemed to hear this term – it was usually just called “bad weather”, or simply referred to as “wet”, “stormy”, “cold” etc).
Nobody, of course, actually quantifies any of this, but the inference is made nevertheless. A good example came in the Telegraph, in an otherwise sensible article by William Langley:
Earlier this year, the Government agreed a deal with insurers that would nominally protect 500,000 households in areas deemed to be at such high risk their owners are unable to get cover. The £180 million raised each year — which would be managed by a not-for-profit fund known as Flood Re — ensures properties remain insurable through a £10.50-a-year levy on all residential premiums due to be introduced in 2015.
But critics say the scheme allows for no increase in the likely numbers of flood victims as weather patterns become increasingly severe and new homes are built in areas previously considered off limits because of flood risk.
So what exactly are the facts? How unusual has the recent rainfall been, and is there a trend to heavier rainfall? 
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts
Scotland has certainly been very wet in December, but I want to concentrate on England, as this is where most of the media attention, and, it seems, damage has been.
First we’ll look at England as a whole, then concentrate on the South East, where the real problems have been.
England
Figure 1
Figure 1 shows December precipitation, using the Met Office data. For the country as a whole, last month was only the 20th wettest since 1910, certainly nothing out of the ordinary. The wettest month was in 1914, when 179mm fell, compared with 116mm this time. Bear in mind as well, that this is just one month of the year – there will be plenty of Januaries, Februaries and so on that were wetter.
Neither does there appear to be any evidence of wetter months becoming more common.
The flooding problems have been very much the result of a build up of water, rather than flash floods, with saturated ground and full rivers. So was December the culmination of months of wet weather. We can check this by going back to October. (November and September were both dry months, so we are taking the worst case scenario here).
Figure 2
For the three months as a whole, 2013 ranks as still only 14th wettest, again nothing remarkable, and 29% lower than the record total set in 1929.
Again, it must be borne in mind that there all sorts of other permutations of months, for instance November to January, that will give totals higher than this particular period.
South East
Now let’s focus on the South East. The Met Office keep regional data for “England South East & Central South”, which closely fits the area of heavy rainfall, on the map above.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/datasets
Figures 3 and 4 show the precipitation for this region.
Figure 3
Figure 4
For December, 2013 ranks as 7th wettest on record, although it is notable that all the other wetter years were prior to 1959. For the three months total, the rank is 6th.
So, there is no indication, even in this part of the country, that rainfall last month, or since October, has been anything not experienced regularly in the past.
Winter Precipitation Trends
Is there any trend towards higher winter rainfall in England. To check this we have the benefit of the long term England & Wales Precipitation Series, held by the Met Office, which dates back to 1766.
There is clear evidence that winter precipitation was consistently lower in the first part of the record, up to about 1860. But since then, and certainly over the last century, the long term trend is pretty flat, with, if anything, a trend to less rain over the last decade or so.
Figure 5
The Met Office figures for England only, (a different dataset to the one above), show a similar picture.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly
Figure 6
Final Thoughts
The wet weather has continued into January so far, and hopefully will abate soon. We will get a better picture when we can look at the full winter period.
Nevertheless, there is nothing in the data to provide the slightest bit of evidence that the floods have been the result of, or aggravated by, “climate change”. Nor is there any indication that such events are becoming more common, or more extreme.
Only today, Bishop Hill refers to two separate comments by Sirs John Beddington and David King, respectively current and former UK Govt Chief Scientists, both of which imply that recent events are examples of extreme weather, which is increasing because of “climate change”. Naturally, they offer not the slightest bit of evidence. This did not prevent the BBC and Guardian respectively from falling for it hook, line and sinker.
I will leave the last word to Mary Dhonau, of the Flood Protection Association, an industry body. In a another Telegraph article, she warns us that “flooding is being made worse by developers building on flood plains to cater for an expanding population. She says that more than 2,000 properties were approved on flood plains this year despite official objections, and added: “It is absolutely barking mad to build on a flood plain when there are so many other places that could be built on.”
Precisely!
References
1) Met Office regional data
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/datasets
2) England & Wales Precipitation series
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/
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The UK media including the BBC and Sky News always report extremes of weather as being caused by man made Global Warming. Trying to post any other opinion is impossible.
Anytime I hear climate change as an explanation of anything, I feel compelled to point out the logical absurdity of it all. If everyone agrees that there has been no climate cange for te past 17 years, then exactly how can anyone with half a brain claim that certainconditions that showed up in the past couple of years can have anything to do with cimate change? There are supposedly limits on how stupid people can be. Now I’m beginning to doubt that.
As well as continuing in building on “Flood Plains”, the very name gives a clue, there is also a great deal of criticism that the old routines for keeping rivers and streams clear of debris, silt and growth have not been adhered to, thus exacerbating the situation.
I thought the problems were worse in the South West; Dorset, Somerset and round here in Gloucestershire.
Just heard the stupidest thing ever on The Weather Channel.
The man who coined the term “weather whiplash” said rapid changes in temperature are caused by climate change and the people in Moscow were “upset” by the “warm” (0*C) temperatures and “longed” for the bitter chill we are experiencing.
A friend of mine has been keeping weather records for about 60 years on the south side of Loch Tay in Perthshire. December was the wettest month he has ever measured – 15 inches of rain. It broke the record set in February 1975.
I don’t think there is any trend over the last 60 years.
Where I live near the River Vilaine in Brittany we have had extensive flooding this year, but it is managed flooding. The Rivers Ille and Aff collect the water around the high plateau at Rennes and it is let down into the Oust and Vilaine as they drain through the Arzal barrage. When there is too much the sluices are closed and the flood plains are inundated until the tide is lower and the barrage opens again. Looks like the whole Country is flooded sometimes. The key to keeping this system working so that few people get their houses flooded? Don’t build on the ruddy flood plains.
Thats the fun of making your own rules.
Yes CO2 makes the world warmer and human make it runaway warming we call that global warming.
Ow wait its not getting warmer, oke yes CO2 cane make the world cooler lets call it climate change.
So now CO2 cane make the world warmer and colder. Rain will fall more and longer. Storms will be less and more. Wild fires will be less and more. Ow and warm air will make more ice. Have tried that one whit a hairdryer but down t now what I did wrong but it was end working.
Back to climate change, by changing the name they created an way to blame every thing on CO2 no sorry human admitted CO2. And yes most people believe that. Even so call d scientist believe that crap. Yes even scientist believe this non sens although t they know it against every law you cane think of.
Now the truth is that they are wright. Oke yes they are not totally wright but lets be serious. We all now climate changes and we now it will be colder. They don’t now and they have 2 problems.
1) they don’t now how warm or cold it is. Yes we don t no it as well because all the data adjustments.
2) Because of 1 they only see outcomes witch are warm and they only believe the warmer scenarios. The nicest one yet is Turkey Turney. Piers Corbyn had on twitter an photo whit the text “you might be a true climate denier if you get your ship stuck in ice that you denied was there.
Earth at this stage is not even close to what cane be consider t warm because that would be 16 degrees. We are at this point closer to 12 degrees or lower. Earth is not even close to being out of an ice age. Are we entering one or a rend we not even out of the lest one.
By hiding behind climate change they only go further away from reality and get stuck in an sort of Hollywood creation.
It’s simple. The record cold spell across much of North America is weather. The record rainfall in parts of Great Britain is climate change.
A C Osborne has it correct. In the old days people were sensible and didn’t build their houses on flood plains. Also landowners kept the rivers in good condition and culverts were regularly cleared. Nowadays we have a dumbed-down populace, most of whom don’t know what a flood plain is and buy houses regardless of the likelihood of flooding. Our Green Governments are now fully in charge of keeping water courses clear and are more concerned about wildlife than about people. Getting permission to do any maintenance work in the countryside is a big regulatory problem and dumbed-down civil servants are in charge of the permitting agencies.
I sat on the South West Flood Defence committee of the Environment Agency for 10 years.
In England we have a number of related problems as regards flooding.
Firstly, all the safest places for building on were probably already developed by 1900.
Secondly; The EA had no legal influence at all in trying to prevent building on flood plains. By its nature its green, flat, and likely to be close to a town and a river and is therefore ‘desirable’ both in developers terms and for the financial inducements the local council will get.
Thirdly. If the flood plain is built on the water has nowhere to go in order to be ‘stored.’.
fourthly there is far more tarmac these days including that of front gardens for parking. the water immediately runs off into the nearest watercourse.
Fifth; Watercourses are on the whole badly maintained with ditches frequently allowed to become overgrow. The EA positively do not want to dredge rivers because of possible harm to wildlife, especially the water vole. result, there is much less capacity in the rivers.
last but not least there is small scale development going on all the time. If you move into a new house in ‘flood lane’ or Waters edge’ or you should not expect anyone else to bail you out.
Extreme events concerning water are no worse than they have been over the last 50 years but there are many more people who now live in unsuitable places and who want to remain completely dry. Our ancestors often accepted that a bit of water might enter their homes at various times and brick floors and electricity points at waist height were commonplace.
tonyb
In a similar fashion here in the US, the polar vortex incursion into much of the country is being mentioned as possibly due to “climate change”, as reported on NPR, and I’m sure others.
“Only today, Bishop Hill refers to two separate comments by Sirs John Beddington and David King, respectively current and former UK Govt Chief Scientists, both of which imply that recent events are examples of extreme weather, which is increasing because of “climate change”. Naturally, they offer not the slightest bit of evidence.”
Because there is no evidence to offer. There is a very clear linkage between UK precipitation and the NAO and AO, they respond to immediate solar conditions and not to the average global temperature.
It’s them greedy developers I tell you!!
No it is not. Actually the phenomenon is being exacerbated by local planning authorities authorising development on any old bit of land they can get their hands on (and flood plain land is, naturally’ cheaper than other land) just so that they can make the developers pay the ‘development tax’ (I forget the technical name) or contribution towards the establishment and maintenance of local infrastructure that is now enshrined in UK planning law.
Then they expect DEFRA to come along and pay for flood defences out of general taxation. Absolutely barmy system.
As an engineer, & a former employee of Thames Water when in it was in public hands, I recall (& I have said this before) many “flood alleviation” schemes being carried out at public expense. These schemes were considered vital to protect housing & businesses. After privatisation, many schemes were dropped, because public funds were no longer available, & the UK Environment Agency became the left-overs whereas the newly privatised companies dealt with water supply & treatment! For over 20 years there has been a distinct lack of investment in public flood alleviations schemes, & works to sea defences. Catchment areas are poorly managed & inadequate funds put into place. The flooding we now see is the result. As Mr Homewood has adequately demonstrated, there has been no trend or increase. I also add that the UK rainfall charts are pretty flat for the last 100 years, there is indeed inter-year variability, but no real defined trend up or down, a subtle but rather poignant point the Met Office/Environment Agency/Greenalist NGOs seem to conveniently forget! AND yes we’re still building on wretched flood plains, the clue is indeed in the title. As I point out to aspiring housebuyers, do the research, the clue is in the name – peesdownregularly lane, or floodseveryfiveyears avenue!!!! There is always extreme weather somewhere in the world, but of course extreme is the norm to scare us all! The Wet Office is doing it’s usual tactic, plausible denyability, “no one weather event can be attributed to Climate Change, but yes this is the sort of event we expect to see more of !”
Interesting that current rainfall is only the twentieth highest on recent records. Two other points to add for the reasons for the current floods in the UK. First, The Spring Tides around our coastal regions are the highest for twenty years, which has exacerbated the flooding in coastal areas. and secondly, I wonder when it will be understood by river and local authorities that flood protection upstream simply means greater floods downstream: the water has to spread somewhere after a deluge. This adds to the problems caused by housing developments on flood plains.
I am always dismayed when I hear the two knights, John Beddington and David King commenting on the weather. Both appear to be committed to the IPCC agenda and swim with the warmist current. The flooding this year is nothing exceptional but has been aggravated by the fact that many rivers and dykes are no longer dredged for environmental reasons. There are areas in Somerset,Gloucestershire, the Severn valley, the Ouse in east Sussex, the Mole in Surrey and the Medway Valley in mid Kent that have always flooded in the wetter years. Many ancient Anglo-Saxon villages such as Yalding in mid-Kent where several rivers meet, were built on river banks because it was easier to put up with winter flooding for a few days than to dig a well or trek miles for water.Sadly our global warmists,led by the Guardian and BBC, have little interest in past events that do not suit their agenda.
Philip Aggrey says at January 7, 2014 at 7:28 am…
Not that barmy. It is effectively a way of building more housing stock on reclaimed land.
Of course, it would seem neater to reclaim the land before building the houses but then the land may not be used for housing.
And we do need more housing.
climatereason says: January 7, 2014 at 7:19 am
Well said. You covered everything I wanted to say, especially the lack of dredging.
” Is England’s Bad Weather A Sign Of Climate Change? ”
Noted climate scientist Al Sharpton (shown in the accompanying video wearing a white lab coat!) would think so:
http://www.truthrevolt.org/news/al-sharpton-demonstrates-hes-clueless-about-global-warming
The Tawana Brawley affair in which he was involved? Just a mere memory now that he has moved into cli sci (rhymes with: “sci fi”) …
AL Sharpton is a seriously committed man.
.
Paul,
Glad this got on WUWT.
Worst flooding locally I’ve seen but less than a decade of observations. Tim Channon over at TBs said he has seen worse. That’s the thing about living longer – you get a sense of perspective. I am thankful, though it took me time to remember when in my ‘alarmist phase’, the wise words of my older now departed relatives about weather cycles. They had really seen it all before and often much worse.
I link to a rather good piece here by someone who has seen it before and a couple of tweets showing the waves of climate/weather ignorance
https://craigm350.wordpress.com/2014/01/07/since-records-began/
Anyone ever watch Time Team? Well usually at some point in the programme they show a computer generated image of what the land looked like at that particular time. Quite often what is now dry land used to be rivers lakes and marshland. for example Glastonbury Thor was an island.
Seems that building on flood plains has been going on for a lot longer than we imagine.
The middle part of the River Medway, specifically the section above Tonbridge, has always tended to flood because of the numerous tributaries that enter it in this area. In fact, the town itself has seen extensive flooding over the centuries, causing the part that lies higher than the rest of the town to be named Dryhill. There have been constant efforts to put flood protection measures in place, and this led to the construction of a flood barrier near Leigh in 1981. This barrier was built to protect Tonbridge from the flooding River Medway, since it was severely affected by major floods in 1968.
http://rivermedway.com/
Since 1982 the population of Tonbridge and Malling Borough has increase 24%
The BBC is loving it, because they get to link it to climate change at every opportunity.
Here in Britain, we have to pay for the BBC with a television licence. It’s £140 a year – which the BBC then blows on absurdity. Well, this year, for the first time in our lives, we are not going to pay it anymore. In just three weeks our yearly contract comes to an end, and we’ve decided not to pay a licence fee and, of course, not watch live TV. I’m going to remove the aerial cable in the attic so that we cannot even watch it by accident. We are switching over to catch-up TV through the net. It will be so nice knowing that we’re not contributing to the BBC’s left-wing propaganda on everything from the EU to climate change. Bliss.