Super Typhoon Haiyan, ‘…as intense as a tropical cyclone can get. ‘

Haiyan_eye

Prepare yourselves for the second coming of Katrina, because you can bet that this storm will be hyped as an indicator of “global warming”.

As of this writing, the storm is in the process of making landfall in the Philippines and it is moving west at 20-25 knots and estimated winds of 170 knots (195mph).

Hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue has been monitoring the Super Typhoon for the past several days and remarked about the historic nature of Haiyan.  In this upper echelon of cyclone intensity, it is difficult to assign rankings or compare Typhoons due to inhomogeneous observing networks and tools.  But it’s fair to say that Super Typhoon Haiyan is as intense as a tropical cyclone can get

Presented at AMS Tropical in 2004, Hoarau et al. asked if there were any Typhoons stronger than Tip (1979).  Two likely candidates emerged including Super Typhoon Angela from 1995 which has been compared with today’s storm.  Satellite estimates through Dvorak technique yielded an intensity of 90 m/s or 175 knots which is greater than Tip’s maximum of 165 knots.  A quick comparison between Angela and Haiyan at maximum intensity suggests the latter is actually stronger.  Dvorak estimates are at the top of the scale — T = 8.0 and even touched 8.1, which according to this chart, means 170-knot maximum 1-minute sustained winds.  That is Category 5 with three pluses.

Dvorak BD imagery comparing Super Typhoon Angela (left) 1995 at 175-knots maximum estimated intensity vs. Super Typhoon Haiyan at 170-knots.

The actual best-tracks have Tip at 165-knots and there are many others that exceeded 155-knots.  Here’s a handy list of advisories that met or exceeded 155 since 1950.  The JTWC best tracks are increasingly uncertain prior to the satellite era (1979) but there is some confidence primarily due to routine aircraft recon from 1944-1987 in the Western Pacific.  Aside from field studies (e.g. TPARC) run by NASA in coordination with neighboring nations, routine hurricane hunting does not occur outside of the Western Hemisphere.

Global landfalls were discussed in a recent J. Climate paper by Weinkle, Maue and Pielke Jr. Weinkle_2012.04

vis0[1]
Haiyan_visible
Above: as morning breaks in the Philippines, one of the first two visible satellite images

TyphoonAnimation

Above: animation from IntelliWeather.com showing the last 12 hours of motion as of 1PM PST 11/7/13. – may take up to a minute to load and animate, depending on your connection speed.

With winds like that, expect to see complete devastation as it makes landfall. That of course will be hyped into an AGW caused storm, just like Katrina. Al Gore and Bill McKibben are already testing lies language on Twitter. Bear in mind that we have a very short historical record of Typhoon strength, and any claims that this is the strongest storm ever need to be qualified with that fact. Nobody has any credible record of typhoon strength back more than a few decades.

I’ll add updates and additional content to this article today – Anthony

===============================================================

UPDATE1:  NOAA image as Haiyan prepares to make landfall:

Haiyan_closeup

UPDATE2: Haiyan is expected to make it all the way to China. Maue on Twitter:

12z ECMWF model shows #Haiyan maintaining deep central pressure of 947 mb as it moves quickly west thru S. China Sea

Haiyan_post_phil_model

UPDATE3: Radar image from Cebu City shows the eye of Haiyan approaching, click image for animation:

haiyan_radar_cebucity

UPDATE4: Dr. Heidi Cullen of Climate Central wins the “First Haiyan BS award” with this missive.

As Bob Tisdale observes, there’s nothing to support this along the track of Haiyan:

Lots of the typical BS accumulating already about Typhoon Haiyan.  Let’s push some of it aside and present the sea surface temperature anomalies for the early portion of Haiyan’s storm track.

There was nothing unusually warm about the sea surface temperature anomalies for the early portion of Typhoon Haiyan’s storm track last week, the week of Wednesday October 30, 2013.  We’ll have to wait for Monday to see what the values were for this week.

Early Typhoon Haiyan SSTa Weekly

UPDATE5:  Jeff Masters, makes this claim:

Super Typhoon Haiyan has made landfall. According to PAGASA, Haiyan came ashore at 4 am local time (20 UTC) November 7, 2013 near Guiuan, on the Philippine island of Samar. At the time, Guiuan reported sustained 10-minute average winds of 96 mph, with a pressure of 977 mb. Contact has since been lost with the city. Two hours before landfall, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center assessed Haiyan’s sustained winds at 195 mph, gusting to 235 mph, making it the 4th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Satellite loops show that Haiyan weakened only slightly, if at all, in the two hours after JTWC’s advisory, so the super typhoon likely made landfall with winds near 195 mph. This makes Haiyan the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history. The previous record was held by the Atlantic’s Hurricane Camille of 1969, which made landfall in Mississippi with 190 mph winds.

Sorry, no. Super Typhoon Ida in 1958 is said to have central pressure of 877mb and 200 mph 1 minute sustained winds: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Ida_%281958%29

C. L. Jordan (September 1959). “A Reported Sea Level Pressure of 877 MB.” (PDF). Monthly Weather Review. Retrieved 2011-11-23.

FOOTNOTE: A milestone – this is story is number 10,000 of published posts on WUWT.

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138 thoughts on “Super Typhoon Haiyan, ‘…as intense as a tropical cyclone can get. ‘

  1. Was just going to pop something in Tips ‘n Notes about this doozie. Fortunately for much of the Philippines, the strong winds don’t extend anywhere near as far out as Katrina’s did. for instance, Manila won’t see anything other than heavy rain (but boy, it looks like heavy rain) as 50=knot winds are only stretching out about 70 miles to the north from the centre.

    However, those directly in its path need to be getting the heck out of Dodge. 200 mph AVERAGE wind speeds don’t bear thinking about. There won’t be much to return to…

  2. “Nobody has any credible record of typhoon strength back more than a few decades.”
    Wise words to keep in mind when weathering the upcoming hysteria.

  3. Typhoons of this strength are unprecedented before tens of thousands of wind turbines were been erected – ergo they must be related to and with 95% certainty caused by the number of wind turbines – or have I misunderstood how the reasoning behind most of warmist ‘climate science’ works ?

  4. Was not Tip around 1,300 miles in diameter or so with tropical storm force winds?

    I don’t see that with Haiyan……..

  5. It will not be the second coming of Katrina because it will be in Manilla, and not in some famous city in the US or Europe. Katrina was “the perfect storm” because it destroyed an iconic city (New Orleans), and thus it was ideal for filling up the disaster movie narrative pushed by AGW alarmists. After all, we don’t see disaster movies set in relatively obscure places like Lagos or Kabul, we see them destroying places that audiences all over the world will recognize, like New York and Paris…

  6. Bob Ramar: Praying is the correct immediate response to this.

    Secondly, check what we can give to the charities when the appeal comes out. The Philippine folk can’t take a direct hit from this if it stays so strong. We shouldn’t expect them to.

    But thirdly let’s hope we can study this and see how the world actually does work. This has happened before and will happen again.

  7. Bob Ramar says:
    November 7, 2013 at 1:47 pm
    I think that praying for these people in the Phillipines would be a very good idea right now.
    >>>>>>

    You got it Bob.

    Folks, people will be suffering, if not dying, in the areas impacted. AGW is a joke, but not everyone understands as we do. So we should restrict our sarcasm in respect for those in danger.

  8. Fascinating to watch from a weather perspective but the highly populated Philippines can only pray they make it through the next few hours (coast experiencing 15m high waves). What lies beyond that will be just as bad and compounded by earlier storms this year. Disease will be rife, hampering any attempt to return to something ‘normal’.
    Sadly already the glee of the ambulance chasing alarmists is palpable on twitter, as this is the event they have prayed for. Vultures circle corpses, I’ll just add my prayers to the many others here.
    Nature sure has a way of making us feel small and powerless.

  9. It’ll be horrific for anyone in the direct path, and what annoys me most is that people such as the odious Joe Romm will use these peoples’ suffering to advance his warmist agenda.

  10. Bob Ramar says:
    November 7, 2013 at 1:47 pm
    I think that praying for these people in the Phillipines would be a very good idea right now.
    ———————
    Yes indeed!
    Have prayed and will continue to do so. Thank you for your comment.

  11. If this is a sure sign of global warming (standstill) then the quietest tornado year on the record In the US is a sure sign of global cooling (standstill). We can all pick cherries. In earlier news from a nearby area I see increased frequency. It’s worse than I thought!

    Abstract – 2004
    Kam-biu Liu et. al.
    A 1,000-Year History of Typhoon Landfalls in Guangdong, Southern China, Reconstructed from Chinese Historical Documentary Records
    …….Remarkably, the two periods of most frequent typhoon strikes in Guangdong (AD 1660–1680, 1850–1880) coincide with two of the coldest and driest periods in northern and central China during the Little Ice Age…..

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/0004-5608.00253/abstract

  12. Bob Ramar says:
    November 7, 2013 at 1:47 pm

    I think that praying for these people in the Phillipines would be a very good idea right now.

    In addition to prayer I’d add preparation.

    Having lived through a cyclone, I’ve always found preparation to be more efficacious than prayer. In addition, preparation seems to serve both functions, under the old idea that “God helps those that help themselves” …

    w.

  13. I know people in the Philippines – this storm is a great concern to me. Yet just watch the alarmists rejoice at this. They will be thrilled and jumping for joy.

  14. It’s mostly just Coriolis force, isn’t it, the hurricanes, cyclones, typhoons, and for that matter much of the air-mass driven winds. The equatorial air masses have greater lateral speed than the temperate ones, and when air masses drift north or south, they get a vector torque from their inertia — boom, circular motion is the end result. It doesn’t matter what the air is made of, only its viscosity matters. This is just engineering — way outside of climateers’ competence, of course.

  15. Here is another sign of global warming – surface wind speeds slow down – blamed on afforestation or something.

    Nature News – 17 October 2010
    Increasing amounts of vegetation could be causing up to 60% of a slowing in wind speed across the Northern Hemisphere, according to researchers analysing three decades of wind-speed data in Nature Geoscience1 today………

    Another factor that has been suggested is thriving vegetation. More abundant and taller plants increase the ‘surface roughness’ of the ground, absorbing some of the wind’s energy and slowing it down…….

    Vegetation changes did not wholly explain wind-speed changes seen in eastern Europe and China. In central Asia the height of vegetation would have to have tripled to account for the stilling…..

    http://www.nature.com/news/2010/101017/full/news.2010.543.html

    Is this bad news? Is there anything co2 can’t do???

  16. Neil Jordan says:
    November 7, 2013 at 2:02 pm

    Halsey steamed into two typhoons, yet still made four stars, so that the Navy could have as many flag officers of that rank as the Army. He should have listened to this guy:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reid_Bryson

    And IPeCaC should have, too, when he said near the end of his life:

    “You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling carbon dioxide.”

  17. Along with its intensity, Haiyan is also very extreme in the latitude of its track. Eight degrees is about as close as typhoons, which rely upon Coriolis effects, ever get to the equator.

  18. ‘Prepare yourselves for the second coming of Katrina, because you can bet that this storm will be hyped as an indicator of “global warming”.’
    Its already happening, the ‘weather is not climate’ line as long been abandon by the alarmist , who now jump on ‘anything ‘ as proof of AGW .
    Hardly the sign of a ‘strong ‘ argument you have to say .

  19. Cyclone Cobra, 1944, was about 4-6 years after some warming
    over the 1930s. Perhaps it was a hiatus as now or perhaps the
    cooling up to 1974 had already started. Conditions then and now
    may be similar …

    I’ve often thought more severe weather hits during cooling times
    as storms feed on the latent heat they can extract from the water
    vapour. The warmer the surface, the more water vapour in the air
    and the cooler the upper air, the steeper the temperature gradient
    and hence the more latent heat which can be extracted, driving a
    bigger, stronger storm. Or am I somewhere way out of the ball park?

    There was a huge North Sea storm documented in the early 1300s(1)
    when the MWP had turned to cooling at the start of the Wolff Minimum
    and little Ice Age. Is this the start for the Eddy Minimum?

    (1) HAGAN, Brian: “The Little Ice Age”

  20. Willis…
    Was your cyclone experience on land or at sea? In ’68 I rode through the eye of Super Typhoon Elaine off the Philippines in a Heavy Cruiser (17k tons) and we came out with the bow pointed 7 degrees off from the rest of the ship. Exciting/terrifying – pick one.

  21. It looks as though the eye will pass between Mindanao and Luzon, the two islands that hold the bulk of the Philippine population. Since there is a mix of small islands and water between these two large islands, it may not end up being the catastrophe that the global warming alarmists are looking (hoping) for. Move along, move along.

  22. Filipinos are no strangers to calamities. The storm track closely follows the area where a devastating earthquake recently occurred. Your prayers are indeed highly appreciated.

  23. Will Al Gore call this the first category 6 or will he go for a category 7?

    (Please don’t take this as a lack of empathy for those in the path of a naturally occurring storm. The comment is aimed at the CAGW PR hype.)

  24. isn’t this storm stronger…because the eye has spun down and gotten tighter/smaller??

    …dunno, asking?

  25. I’m glad to see so many here concerned for the safety of Filipinos. Poverty is widespread and many people along the coasts live in tin shacks. A lot of people will die if emergency warnings and evacuations aren’t in place and being heeded. Even in the U.S. this would be a deadly storm; in the Philippines it will be a hundred times worse. There are many things we can do to help poor people prepare for these kinds of storms and clean up afterward. Tilting at the windmills of AGW and carbon dioxide emissions isn’t one of them. In fact it diverts resources away from productive solutions to real problems as Bjorn Lomborg points out.

  26. Meanwhile the total number of intense storms (4&5) has been declining globally since 1987.
    The numbers for any Typhoon before then in the WPAC cannot be compared to modern numbers since they stopped aircraft reconnaissance, and we no longer have that important constraint on the intensity estimates there. I doubt Haiyan is really more intense than Tip but even if it is a record is *not* the same thing as a trend.

  27. An unusually active typhoon season?

    While the Atlantic had a very quiet tropical season, the western Pacific has been on the active side. This year, 30 named storms have formed and 5 super typhoons, which is slightly above average, but nothing out of the ordinary. On average, the western Pacific gets 27 named storms.

    The most active season in terms of number of named storms in the western Pacific was 1964 (39 storms), but the largest number of super typhoons was in 1965 (there were 11).

    The season was quiet (like in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic) until about mid-September, and hasn’t taken a breather since then. On average, approximately 30 percent of all tropical cyclones in the western Pacific occur between mid-September and mid-November, but this year, about 45 percent of the season’s tropical cyclones occurred in that two-month window (since the season is still ongoing, that number could fluctuate a bit). So, it’s not that the season is unusually active, but it is getting active later than normal.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/11/07/super-typhoon-haiyan-closes-in-on-philippines-among-strongest-storms-ever/?hpid=z5

  28. Below is NOAA’s description of one of the hurricanes I experienced in Houston, Texas, September 11, 1961. Carla. This one appears to be even more powerful. We sheltered in place and were just fine, having made adequate preparations for living without running water, and no electricity for about ten days.

    Note the statement that the wind equipment blew away in the storm, and a storm surge of 22 feet.

    “Carla was an extremely large hurricane with devastating effects from the winds and storm surge for the Middle and Upper Texas coast. Hurricane force gusts were recorded along the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to Galveston. The highest sustained wind speeds reported were 115 mph at Matagorda, 110 mph at Victoria, and 88 mph at Galveston. Extreme peak wind gusts were estimated to be near 170 mph at Port Lavaca as the wind equipment blew away after reading 153 mph. Wind gusts were estimated to be around 150 mph at Victoria, Port Aransas, and Edna. Wind gusts of 80 to 90 mph were reported from Rockport to Corpus Christi.

    Carla’s storm surge devastated the Texas coast, rising to 10 feet above normal along a 300 mile swath from Port Aransas to Sabine Pass. The higher tides reached the Upper Texas coast by the 8th as the large hurricane approached with storm surge eventually reaching 10 to 15 feet around Galveston Bay. Tides of 15 to 17 feet above mean sea level inundated Port O’Connor, Indianola, Palacios and Matagorda. The extreme tides inundated downtown Port Lavaca with 2 feet of flood water and displaced fishing boats and tug boats on Highway 35. With the slow movement of Carla, the hurricane pushed a storm surge of 22 feet above mean seal level at the head of Lavaca Bay in Port Lavaca. This is the highest storm surge in Texas hurricane history. Total inundation of the Texas coastline was around 1.7 million acres with the storm surge reaching 10 miles inland in places.”

  29. Water temperatures in the tropical basins are warm enough every year to support super cyclones like Haiyan, but such storms rarely occur because the atmospheric conditions have to be perfect. A pocket of dry air or the slightest upper level wind shear usually prevents tropical cyclones from getting anywhere near as strong as Haiyan. Sometimes, however, everything happens just the way it needs to for a super cyclone to evolve.

    My heart goes out to the people of the Central Philippines, who are at this very moment, going through one of natures most terrifying creations and are fighting for their lives. The storm will be gone tomorrow, but their ordeal is only just beginning.

  30. Cebu should also get away [i]relatively[/i] unscathed, but the quarter of a million souls of Tacloban are in mortal danger. The city lies in San Pedro Bay and is on the right side, hence windier side, of the eye. Storm surge and wind speeds will be greatest here, with the topography exaggerating the effects.

    For those who think they recognise the name, Tacloban was the site of MacArthur’s HQ during the Second World War.

  31. I now pray for the Filipinos as I once prayed for myself. That was during Typhoon Hope in 1979. I was living in Hong Kong when she hit. The next day it looked like some giant had stalked the New Territories swinging a flail at about 15 feet above the ground, nothing above that height was there.
    During the night I cowered in the smallest room in the house (the toilet) with my cats and dogs. I could hear massive thumps against the house and tried to go outside to see if it was a tree or some other debris hitting the house. It wasn’t. It was what the Cantonese call “dai fung” or big winds, referring to the very small but highly destructive high-speed squalls which form within the walls of a typhoon. When I peered outside I thought that I’d been hit in the face by some flying gravel. When I went inside to my refuge and checked I discovered that I had a green leaf embedded edgeways in my face.
    A typhoon is terrifying; it is Nature at its most demonic. There is nothing you can do but cower and hope to survive.

  32. Wind speeds reported by aircraft and radar tend to overestimate storm intensity.
    Hurricanes are defined by sustained surface wind speeds.
    Sustained wind speeds at the surface still show Haiya to be a major hurricane that resembles Andrew for size and intensity.
    I drove through the storm path of Andrew 6 weeks after landfall. Basically entire towns were scrubbed off the face of the earth.
    Everything above the surface was gone, except for some commercial structures, reinforced concrete or metal. Anything wood, houses or trees, was gone. Much debris had been pushed into large piles on the sides of roads. Metal poles survived but not wood. Most metal structures were just skeletons.
    Drove by a residential area and all you could see was the concrete curbs and a few metal pipes. A very few people had built heavily reinforced houses, they looked to be still livable, with some roof damage. A few reinforced concrete sturctures looked ok, but with no windows.
    The philipines knows how to respond to hurricanes, but the lives of the people who can’t evactuate will be mostly gone.

  33. I believe that recent solar X-flares are responsible for this particular extreme weather event. Conversely, the ongoing lack of solar activity until recently explains the dearth of tornadoes and hurricanes in North America this season. Does anyone remember that a large X-flare preceded Katrina?

    Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction forecasted a month ahead the high solar activity for the end of last month, and he was right, and his resulting weather forecast for the USA was right on the money as well and for the eastern Atlantic storm. EVERYONE should want to know how Corbyn knows ahead of time so far and accurately what the solar activity is going to be and how that relates to Earth weather.

    I believe we are on the edge of a transformation in understanding the true source of power in our climate: the electric weather effect – protons en masse from solar emissions and cosmic sources, modulated by lunar motion. Like Piers says: it solar particles and magnetic linkages, not CO2!

  34. Oh no!

    My Filipino wife’s mother lives right in the area.

    I have been in Tacloban several times since 2003 and yes it is barely above sea level.The town could be wiped out.

  35. Karl W. Braun says:
    November 7, 2013 at 3:02 pm

    Filipinos are no strangers to calamities. The storm track closely follows the area where a devastating earthquake recently occurred. Your prayers are indeed highly appreciated.
    _____________________________
    The Phillippine Islands are one of those places where man is surrounded by profound beauty, as if in compensation for what the people must endure, both from nature and himself. The ancient rice terraces are as pleasing to the eye as any natural landscape, yet the history of the place is rife with accounts of the worst acts of both man and nature. It’s in places like the Phillippines, where man lives closest to the edge of existence, that the duality of the world is so evident.

  36. Willis Eschenbach says:

    November 7, 2013 at 2:36 pm

    In addition, preparation seems to serve both functions, under the old idea that “God helps those that help themselves” …

    w.
    ===============
    Of the old “mantras”, that is the only one I’ll repeat when asked to.

  37. Anthony,
    Thanks for covering this. The respect and thoughts commenters have for the impending human cost is nice to see. Kudos to WUWT. I echo those sentiments with a special mention for the people of the tiny island of Malapascua 100 miles ish north of Cebu City. I have been visiting there every year since I started diving and it is just an amazing place with wonderful, friendly locals. Unfortunately it is forecast to be in the direct path of Yolanda and stands little chance. If ever anyone is out Philippine way in the future consider including it in your trip, it’s fantastic! If you are a diver or love the underwater world and have the time here is taste of Malapascua as we filmed it this year and how it will no doubt recover to in the future.
    Good Luck Philippines.

  38. u.k.(us) says:
    November 7, 2013 at 4:32 pm

    Willis Eschenbach says:

    November 7, 2013 at 2:36 pm

    In addition, preparation seems to serve both functions, under the old idea that “God helps those that help themselves” …

    w.
    ===============
    Of the old “mantras”, that is the only one I’ll repeat when asked to.
    _________________________
    How about:
    “It’s a small world, but I wouldn’t want to paint it.”- Steven Wright, comedian

    Nevermind.

  39. “Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction forecasted a month ahead the high solar activity for the end of last month, and he was right, and his resulting weather forecast for the USA was right on the money as well and for the eastern Atlantic storm.”

    When did you receive the forecast and when was the event? What was the specific forecast and the specific event? Dates and exact wording would be appreciated. There are linkages from solar activity to weather but that doesn’t make weather predictable. There are two many other variables including chaotic effects, so I am skeptical that such forecasts can go beyond general tendencies (e.g. there will be more storms within a general area and period of time)

  40. Lots of unknown unknowns about Super Typhoons, and as noted really hard to compare. Dumb ships either avoid them or sink.

  41. Alan Robertson says:

    November 7, 2013 at 4:41 pm
    ============
    I don’t get it ?? ( I love Steven Wright).

    It sure looks like a nasty cyclone is gonna affect someone.
    They know what to do ??

  42. Dr. Omni says:
    November 7, 2013 at 1:58 pm

    Keep in mind that the hurricane did not destroy New Orleans. The failed levee destroyed the ninth ward. The Crescent City of historical fame did not suffer huge damage.

  43. It appears Heidi Cullen is culling (I couldn’t resist) her information from the National Obama Agenda Administration (otherwise known as the NOAA) website. At her twitter site she gave the link for which I copied the long address here along with a shortened statement from the NOAA:

    http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail2.php?MediaID=1452&MediaTypeID=1

    ‘The intensification of Super Typhoon Haiyan is being fueled by “ideal” environmental conditions – namely low wind shear and warm ocean temperatures. …Plotted here is the average Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential product for October 28 – November 3, 2013… This dataset, … shows the total amount of heat energy available for the storm to absorb, not just on the surface, but integrated through the water column. Deeper, warmer pools of water are colored purple, though any region colored from pink to purple has sufficient energy to fuel storm intensification. The dotted line represents the best-track and forecast data as of 16:00 UTC on November 7, 2013.’

    Now, there’s a cadaverous gray map at the site with a trailing pink cloud like image (it’s more like an unappealing rusty red – make it ominous) running East to West with a Halloweeny purple (proper ominous image, again) cloud like image wafting inside. Northwest of this is a barely detectable dotted (if you can see the dots you’re hired) line indicating the storm track. It’s almost as if all they wanted you to see was the pink and purple ocean hot, hot, hot.

    Below this inspirational graphic is a multicolor bar entitled, ‘Available energy’, starting at 0 which is colored in the cadaverous gray and ending at 225 where it’s colored in that Halloweeny purple color with shades of pink transitioning between the two. Now, what is this available energy you ask? Why it’s “(kJoules per cm cubed). So, the available energy which does not really appear to be in the Haida storm track (sign on the dotted line) runs from 0 kJoules per cm cubed to 225 kJoules per cm cubed. But don’t forget that the ‘deeper, warmer pools of water are colored purple’. So, apparently it’s not just the Joules that that multicolored horizontal bar represents but there may, possibly, perhaps be some depth hiding out in that bar there as well. You know, the heat hiding out in the deep. Who knows? But let’s return to a Joule which according to my information is equal to the heat required to raise the temperature of 1 g of water
    0.24 °C. Got that? Just how many Godzillion gallons of water in the West Pacific are there? And how much energy would it take to raise three hundred trillion Godzillion gallons of water 0.24 °C in relation to grams? A Brontosaurium Godzillion trillion or a Jupiterillium Godzillium?

    Now, at the bottom left of the linked NOAA website there’s a logo that says, in graceful serif type, USA, and then, .gov, indicating the website. Across and over the USA is a shooting star in reverse as if it’s aiming for the heavens. And then underneath the USA.gov is the reassuring statement (remove all sharp objects and don’t eat or have a mouthful of water) ‘Government Made Easy’.

  44. Loading exaggerated cAGW claims in 3, 2, 1

    The Philippines, like every south east Asian country, has endured Typhoons/Cyclones/Hurricanes since they where first settled. Yes this one is huge and it will no doubt cause umpteen millions of dollars damage and there will be loss of life but it isn’t like this has never happened before. One thing that us westerners don’t have is a resilience built from a history of having to endure natural disasters without outside help.

  45. Australia has a record and it was a Cat 4!

    Severe Tropical Cyclone Olivia was a powerful Category 4 cyclone that produced the highest non-tornadic winds on record, 408 km/h (253 mph).

    That was in 1996.

  46. I should’ve added, that rather then checking out the NOAA’s website, I should’ve spent my time seeing if there’s any carrier task forces relatively nearby that can be sent to the region for assistance. To my knowledge carrier groups are the only rapidly moving floating cities that can provide abundant fresh water, transport, search and rescue, evacuation, and able bodied gallant strength to those in need. God speed.

  47. An excellent source regarding Hurricane Camille is: http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/about_us/meet_us/roger_pielke/camille/index.html

    WUWT regulars will note the name in the url.

    I was in Biloxi at that time as my father was serving in the USAF: folks in base housing were evacuated onto Kessler AFB. Not to get into a p—–g contest about which storm is strongest, but unfortunately nothing survived on the ground near Camille’s center and, of course, satellite data was in infancy.

  48. clipe says:

    November 7, 2013 at 5:29 pm

    clipe says:
    November 7, 2013 at 4:59 pm

    I’ve been to Cebu City…

    Not recommended for the naive.
    =================
    Got tales ?

  49. There is a lot of mixing of ocean waters from this storm. What (if any) likely effect will this have on NH temperatures this winter?
    We were under a super typhoon in the early 70′s. 40 deg. rolls at 200 feet— man battle stations and go deep–still noticable at >600 feet–
    Thats a LOT of mixing….
    And the islanders don’t have the luxery of thick metal walls—-sorry for them.

  50. So what? The thing is it’s the strongest storm to ever landfall. Why so ignorant when you should pray.
    ———–

    “It will not be the second coming of Katrina because it will be in Manilla, and not in some famous city in the US or Europe. Katrina was “the perfect storm” because it destroyed an iconic city (New Orleans), and thus it was ideal for filling up the disaster movie narrative pushed by AGW alarmists. After all, we don’t see disaster movies set in relatively obscure places like Lagos or Kabul, we see them destroying places that audiences all over the world will recognize, like New York and Paris…”

  51. Here’s a graphic depicting the worst typhoons since 1970 to hit the Philippines. Note that four of the storms made their landfall at the same location.

  52. 1964 wasn’t a bad year either:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1964_Pacific_typhoon_season

    I can vouch for it. I was serving in Vietnam that year and me and my buddy pilot and load-master were operating a DHC-4 out of Nha Trang and had to evacuate to Danang when tropical storm Kate turned into a typhoon and hit the coast the next day.

    I can still recall we lost sight of the ground at 400 ft and 3 hours later saw it again on landing about the same height after having to lay off a frightening amount of drift most of the way in cloud.

    Luckily the weather warning provided by the USAF was a little better than that given to Admiral Halsey and we escaped the worst of it and I’m here to tell the tale.

  53. Engr Millard says:
    November 7, 2013 at 5:48 pm
    “So what? The thing is it’s the strongest storm to ever landfall.”

    Don’t know about “strongest” ever, since the TV has been reporting it is the strongest since 2010. Which means that the 2010 typhoon was stronger.

  54. Thanks Anthony. Metro Manila is rather far from central Philippines where the storm will make a landfall today, and yet it’s dark here, almost all classes have been suspended. In provinces where the storm will make a landfall, there are reports that even concrete fences are swaying, like being rocked by an earthquake.

  55. King of Cool says:

    November 7, 2013 at 6:41 pm

    ….”serving in Vietnam that year and me and my buddy pilot and load-master were operating a DHC-4….”
    ==========================
    “buddy pilot” is a new term for me.
    Never heard it before, what does it mean ??

  56. “Nobody has any credible record of most weather events back more than a few decades.”

    Little more accurate

  57. . We were under a super typhoon in the early 70′s. 40 deg. rolls at 200 feet— man battle stations and go deep–still noticable at >600 feet–

    That’s what we need to complement weather flights into the eyeball – weather patrols under the hurricanes to measure that deep heat. Shouldn’t cost much at all.

  58. Sweet Old Bob says:
    November 7, 2013 at 5:47 pm
    We were under a super typhoon in the early 70′s. 40 deg. rolls at 200 feet— man battle stations and go deep–still noticable at >600 feet–
    Thats a LOT of mixing….

    Sounds like you might have been in one of our boomers or fast attacks under Typhoon Amy (Etang) in 1971 just off Guam M.I.

    I was on the surface in a sub tender getting the crap beat out of us during that storm. I had bridge watch duty when winds were near 140 knots. Very interesting ride on the top too!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1971_Pacific_typhoon_season

  59. Anthony says: Sorry, no. Super Typhoon Ida in 1958 is said to have central pressure of 877mb and 200 mph 1 minute sustained winds:

    Masters was talking about strength at landfall. Wikipedia article states that Ida weakened before landfall.

  60. If my memory doesn’t play false, Hurricane Celia hit Corpus Christi, tx with winds of ~200mph back in the 1970s.

  61. u.k.(us) says:
    November 7, 2013 at 7:26 pm

    “buddy pilot” is a new term for me.
    Never heard it before, what does it mean ??

    Not a co-pilot, not the only captain. In our outfit we were all captains, albeit inexperienced boggies and we took it in turns who was in the LH seat and who was reading the map, hence my use of the term buddy.

    In actual fact he was more than a buddy (Now deceased, RIP Dave). He was there a month or so before me and was therefore my mentor and one of the smoothest, laid back pilots you could ever hope to meet.

    I also recall the pre-typhoon days at Nha Trang before we evacuated. There was about seven and three quarter eights of cloud and it was raining all over the place. But war goes on and we were given the task of re-supplying a little 1500 ft or so ploughed field they called an airstrip by the name of Boom EE Gha (couldn’t even begin to spell it correctly, in the log book it just says BMG). But I remember the day.

    Well, I was in the LHS with Dave mentoring and we arrived where BMG ought to be at about 4000 ft and when we looked down lo and behold there was a hole the size of a football pitch. I then looked at Dave and he didn’t say a word so I pulled back the throttles and started to spiral down tightly turning to keep in the hole, hoping we didn’t spear off into a rock filled cloud and somehow – thanks God – we got below the base and were able to spot the airfield.

    It was still raining so we had to do a tight circuit with the windscreen wipers going and my heart was beating about the same as Neil Armstrong’s when he landed on the moon, as I started thinking about the length of the strip and how it was going to be slimy. It was never ever going to be a smooth landing, although I’ve been in worse as a passenger in Airbus 380s, because as soon as we touched down, or a split second before, I slammed the throttles back into full reverse and they stayed there until we came to a slippery but safe stop with nothing to spare. First time, last time into Boom EE Gha and I never ever want to see it again.

    Throughout the whole episode Dave hadn’t flinched but later I thought that our little typhoon evacuation run up to Danang with the comforting voice of the American Ground Controlled Approach controller at the other end was a bit of a cake walk. And the beer from the PX that night was extra especially delicious and I knew from then on, thanks to Dave, I had the confidence to handle anything.

  62. anyone who thinks this is normal as to get a checkup mate this storm is not a simple event this is something we can expect from now on

  63. Those still in its path may be marginally comforted by what appears to be a rather rapid weakening over recent hours, to judge by the decrese in the depth of the central cloud base. As Haiyan has a relatively small circulation of strong winds (more like Wilma in Mexico than Katrina), it’s more susceptible to spinning up and down in short time scales than storms with a broader wind field. It’s also moving laterally at quite a lick – nearly 25 mph – so any one point on land is experiencing the effects for only half or a third as long as if the typhoon were travelling at a more ‘normal’ rate.

    No comfort to those who have been battered already. We can only hope loss of life has been minimal and that recovery can begin soon.

  64. Strongest wind gust every recorded off the Western Australian coast was at Barrow Island during Tropical Cyclone Olivia on 10 April 1996 reaching 408 km/hr (253.5 mph). This is believed to be a world record surpassing the Mt Washington gust. Lowest recorded pressure off the West Australian coast was recorded at the North Rankin Oil Platform during Tropical Cyclone Orson on April 22/23 1989 of 905 hPa.
    Kim Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/extremes.shtml

  65. “… this storm will be hyped as an indicator of “global warming” …”

    I only supplemented comments Jimbo:

    Thomas Knutson, 2012 (http://www.downtoearth.org.in/content/role-climate-change-tropical-cyclones-still-unclear) says:
    “Yes, but we cannot see a detectable effect of human activity on it. This is different from global rise in temperature, which is a direct consequence of human activity. Looking at projections, increase in intensity will be upto 10 per cent but that’s too small to be detectable now [...].” “…IT’S NOT showing any DRAMATIC effects at this point.”
    “We think atmosphere warms more than surface, which STABILISES the atmosphere, leading to fewer storms.”
    “A lot depends on the infrastructure in place, and the geography.”

    Vecchi et al., 2013. (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00503.1):
    “The UT [upper troposphere] and TTL [tropical tropopause layer] temperature trends in the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis are unlikely to be accurate and likely drive spuriously positive TC [tropical cyclone] and PI [potential intensity] trends and an INFLATED connection between absolute surface temperature warming and TC activity increases.”

  66. Excuse my ignorance, but, since the Philippines are north of the equator, and the storm in the video appears to be turning anti-clockwise, why is it a tropical cyclone and not a tropical anticyclone? (Genuine question.)

  67. the problem is caused by global cooling, exactly as predicted by me:
    quote
    As the temperature differential between the poles and equator grows larger due to the cooling from the top, very likely something will also change on earth. Predictably, there would be a small (?) shift of cloud formation and precipitation, more towards the equator, on average. At the equator insolation is 684 W/m2 whereas on average it is 342 W/m2. So, if there are more clouds in and around the equator, this will amplify the cooling effect due to less direct natural insolation of earth (clouds deflect a lot of radiation). Furthermore, in a cooling world there is more likely less moisture in the air, but even assuming equal amounts of water vapour available in the air, a lesser amount of clouds and precipitation will be available for spreading to higher latitudes. So, a natural consequence of global cooling is that at the higher latitudes it will become both cooler and drier.
    end quote

    http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/04/29/the-climate-is-changing/

  68. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303309504579185100022119712

    “Haiyan, with gusts of up to 275 kilometers an hour (168 miles an hour) when it hit land, is the strongest tropical cyclone to hit the Philippines since Typhoon Ruth pounded the main island of Luzon in 1991, causing floods and landslides and killing 12.”

    http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304448204579183691937657718

    “The typhoon landed at 4:40 a.m. local time, at the town of Guiuan. Haiyan — locally called Yolanda — is the strongest tropical cyclone to hit the Philippines since Typhoon Ruth hit the main island of Luzon in 1991.”
    “With the equivalent strength of a Category 5 hurricane, Haiyan hammered the coastal town of Guiuan in Eastern Samar province with winds of 146 miles an hour and gusts of 168 mph. The storm was moving west at a faster clip than estimated, and its diameter had shrunk to about 250 miles.”

  69. No disrespect to anyone however, I think you will find, so far, only 3 people are reported to have died in this storm. You will also find more people die every day in poverty or raking through rubbish tips where walls of rubbish bury those trying to eek out a living, especially in Manila.

    Either way, this is yet another weather event being blown, literally, blown out of all proportion in the MSM. Just like fires here in Australia.

  70. I am here Casiguran Sorsogon, 150-170km from the storm center. Wind was here maybe 30m/s.
    I have video, don’t know how to post.

  71. Whenever a tropical storm starts to develop and monitoring begins there are those people who take the position that 35 mph winds are nothing to worry about. These same people scoff at all the huss and fuss about such low wind speeds and tell their tales of how they experience wind speeds of 50- 60 mph as a common feature of where they live. It is always my response that the danger in tropical systems is their ability to rapidly increase in size and strength. That is the reason for early monitoring of even small storms. Below is the intensification history for this storm. Pay particular attention the the incredibly rapid intensification from Nov 5 to Nov 6. Being prepared and aware are the two best defenses.
    (I hope this cut and paste retains the proper format when I hit “post comment”)
    Date Time Wind speed (mph)
    Nov 03 06 GMT 30
    Nov 03 12 GMT 35
    Nov 03 18 GMT 35
    Nov 04 00 GMT 40
    Nov 04 06 GMT 45
    Nov 04 12 GMT 50
    Nov 04 18 GMT 65
    Nov 05 00 GMT 75
    Nov 05 06 GMT 75
    Nov 05 12 GMT 105
    Nov 05 18 GMT 120
    Nov 06 00 GMT 150
    Nov 06 06 GMT 155
    Nov 06 12 GMT 160
    Nov 06 18 GMT 175
    Nov 07 00 GMT 175
    Nov 07 06 GMT 175
    Nov 07 12 GMT 190
    Nov 07 18 GMT 195

  72. Patrick says
    no it just weather
    Henry says
    no,
    it is the changing weather due to natural climate change
    expect less rainfall at >[40] latitudes
    and more rainfall around the equator
    Like Willis said
    better be prepared and thank God for the wisdom that He gives to people to understand the natural forces at play.

  73. “HenryP says:

    November 8, 2013 at 4:57 am”

    Not sure how you managed to determine from my posts that this weather event was anything but natural.

  74. DaveF says:
    November 8, 2013 at 2:08 am
    Excuse my ignorance, but, since the Philippines are north of the equator, and the storm in the video appears to be turning anti-clockwise, why is it a tropical cyclone and not a tropical anticyclone? (Genuine question.)
    ——————————————————————————————————————–
    What you are looking at, Dave, are the upper level clouds of Haiyan(Yolanda). The upper-level circulation of a strong tropical cyclone are, indeed, anti-cyclonic. It is the lower-level winds of the storm which are cyclonic and those are the winds which affect people. See:

  75. “the hurricane pushed a storm surge of 22 feet above mean seal level ”

    Those poor seals! First polar bears, now seals…is there anything that global warming cant do?

  76. Technically, the sea surface temperatures in the region have cooled somewhat in the last few months beyond the normal seasonal peak in September. Close to average temps right now at 30C.

  77. @ Keith: “…..appears to be a rather rapid weakening over recent hours….”

    Fortunate for the Philippine islanders, unfortunate for the AGW alarmists.

  78. Bill Illis says
    Technically, the sea surface temperatures in the region have cooled somewhat in the last few months beyond the normal seasonal peak in September.
    henry says
    yes
    you are right
    it is globally cooling:

    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2014/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1987/to:2014/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/rss/from:1987/to:2014/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1987/to:2014/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/rss/from:1987/to:2002/trend

    hence, because of this, you will get more precipitation around the equator and less at the higher latitudes.
    Natural forces.

  79. “Haiyan had winds of 190 – 195 mph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history…” This has been reported all night long on CNN here in Baja which is the only TV news channel I get. They lead with “strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history”. They also say that there are no direct measurements of wind speed – no anemometers that can withstand that wind-speed without being destroyed. There are no planes which fly into the storms – the measurements are all done from space.

  80. I can imagine the quick email sent out to MSM reporters:

    “Re: Typhoon Haiyan. All jargon related to ‘recorded climate history’ will be officially changed to ‘world history’. If it bleeds it leads. Worse, if few people die in this storm, we have to make the headline bleed even if the people don’t. Now get back to your keyboards and make the headline look like a human-caused killing monster from hell!!!!”

  81. Presented at AMS Tropical in 2004, Hoarau et al. asked if there were any Typhoons stronger than Tip (1979). Two likely candidates emerged including Super Typhoon Angela from 1995 which has been compared with today’s storm.

    What about Super Duper Typhoon We-Didn’t-Know-You-Existed back in 10,000bc? We’ve been watching these things for an eyeblink in time, and we get all worked up about them as if they’ve only started happening now. It’s really amazing watching the scurrying ants.

  82. My heart goes out to the negritos hill people of the Philippines. They live a subsistence existence in the forests and hills, are the least likely to be prepared, and the most vulnerable. The heavy rains will wash out access ‘roads’ (that jeeps have difficulty navigating under normal conditions) and destroy their meager crops just as harvest season was approaching. They will be the last folks to receive any formal aid or assistance, except from Christian ministries that already have working relationships with some of these disparate and isolated villages.

  83. DaveF says:
    November 8, 2013 at 2:08 am

    Excuse my ignorance, but, since the Philippines are north of the equator, and the storm in the video appears to be turning anti-clockwise, why is it a tropical cyclone and not a tropical anticyclone? (Genuine question.)“”
    DaveF. I learned in meteorology:
    ” In the N Hemisphere, it’s clockwise around a high.”

  84. The typhoon reveals the current state of climate schizophrenia. The global average has not increased for the past 15+ years because advocates argue the heat has been stored at ocean depths below 700 meters. Somehow the global warming advocates still try to connect that hidden heat to every extreme event. The warmth can affect temperatures so how can cause extreme weather. Like the world hottest temperatures at Death Valley in 1913 when both solar activity and CO2 levels were low, natural dynamics cause the greatest extremes. The typhoon also shows how different methods of averaging can create different records extremes depending on whether or not 1 minute or 10 minute averages are used.

  85. Bob Weber says:
    November 7, 2013 at 4:12 pm
    I believe that recent solar X-flares are responsible for this particular extreme weather event. Conversely, the ongoing lack of solar activity until recently explains the dearth of tornadoes and hurricanes in North America this season. Does anyone remember that a large X-flare preceded Katrina?
    ========================================
    Yes, I remember that.

    It made quite an impression on me. I figured that whenever we got into a solar minimum, the number of big hurricanes would drop. It did. The authorities (esp. the Weather Channel) kept predicting high numbers of big named storms, but their predictions always came to naught as the seasons fizzled out.

  86. By the way, Bob Weber and Tom in Florida, did you notice that there was an X-class flare on Nov. 5, right before the wind speeds accelerated? ;-)

    P.S., Tom, thanks for the wind speed history.

  87. u.k.(us) says:
    November 7, 2013 at 4:32 pm

    Willis Eschenbach says:

    November 7, 2013 at 2:36 pm

    In addition, preparation seems to serve both functions, under the old idea that “God helps those that help themselves” …

    w.
    ===============
    Of the old “mantras”, that is the only one I’ll repeat when asked to.

    Though you might want to include its’ companion and corollary – “There are no atheists in foxholes.”

  88. this storm will make history if its track prediction is accurate…. it is shaping up to be Vietnams biggest natural disaster in its modern history. This is nothing proven to AGW/climate blah blah blah but this IS unusual and extremely violent.

  89. One thing I think most of us have missed (and if I missed a comment addressing this, my apologies).

    Haiyan is a pussy cat of a storm! How do we know? Climate Alarmists tell us this.

    They claim Sandy was a superstorm because of the billions in damages done! Haiyan’s damage total is going to come no where near that. So it cannot be a bad storm.

  90. I’d rather not say says:
    November 8, 2013 at 6:32 am
    “the hurricane pushed a storm surge of 22 feet above mean seal level ”
    Those poor seals! First polar bears, now seals…is there anything that global warming cant do?

    What did it do to the friendly seals?

  91. “a bloke says:
    November 8, 2013 at 12:13 am

    anyone who thinks this is normal as to get a checkup mate this storm is not a simple event this is something we can expect from now on”

    You’re just another bloke and this is just another tropical cyclone..
    Panic much?

  92. Ryan Maue firing on Twitter :
    - First of many garbage articles to come. http://t.co/Ll3n7TfQGW
    - Most Climate change & cyclone articles follow same flawed template that require a Bull**** button. Google search level of knowledge.
    - Over past 1,000 years, Philippines have been hit by 10-20 thousand tropical cyclones. Don’t be so arrogant to believe man caused Haiyan.

  93. This is nothing proven to AGW/climate blah blah blah but this IS unusual and extremely violent.

    There is a very big difference between “rarely happens” and “unusual” where unusual implies that the event is a symptom of a undesirable.

    Drawing a royal flush in poker is not at all unusual, it is in fact a certainty of statistical probability of the game if you are using a fair deck, but it is never the less, a rare event. Likewise “perfect storms” where everything comes together in just the right way for the storm to build rapidly to peak intensities we rarely see must be rare events but that does not make them symptomatic of some “unusual” or sinister change in the climate system.

    These big and powerful storms are a perfectly normal event, they have been happening for thousands of years, the fact we have not actively documented them due to our feeble ability to observe weather with precision does not make them special in any way. They are rare but not unusual.

    It is the height of human arrogance to presume we have seen the full range or “normal” weather in the very brief eyeblink of human history and even shorter period of effective observation tools like satellite observations. Given the probabilities of weather it is in fact highly unlikely that we even know what extreme weather is in the long view of climate and weather history.

  94. Update: Cebu must have its power back on. That’s fast! Heard from both parties an hour ago via Facebook.

  95. If one is familiar with Chaos theory, who is to say that the disturbance of air by windmills has not contributed to the typhoon? I would not but that statement is about as logical as any from AGW theory.

  96. Just heard news from San Remigio,northern Cebu. 90% of the town houses are damaged ,the roof ripped off the church,our beach house completely destroyed, nothing seen like it in living memory.Thankfully it hit at low tide otherwise the damage would have been even worse.

  97. Patrick says:
    November 8, 2013 at 4:04 am
    “No disrespect to anyone however, I think you will find, so far, only 3 people are reported to have died in this storm. You will also find more people die every day in poverty or raking through rubbish tips where walls of rubbish bury those trying to eek out a living, especially in Manila.
    Either way, this is yet another weather event being blown, literally, blown out of all proportion in the MSM. Just like fires here in Australia.”

    Ready to retract and apologize now?

  98. Early unconfirmed Red Cross reports are now saying the death toll in the Philippines could be over 1,000.

    As tragic as that number is, the media will obviously blame this storm and these deaths on CAGW, which is both absurd and immoral.

    This was a devastating storm but most of these deaths were caused by the Philippines’ awful infrastructure, nonexistent building codes, government corruption and extreme poverty. I’m sure most of the deaths were in the poorest islands of the Philippines, where houses are made of cheap wood held together by chicken wire and a few rusty nails in rusted corrugated roofs.

    I’m not making fun of the Philippine people, who are some of the kindest people on Earth, but live in one of the most impoverished countries in the world due to massive government corruption and cronyism.

    Making energy more expensive with CO2 taxes/regulations won’t save lives, it will ultimately lead to more poverty, less infrastructure, poorer built buildings and more deaths from storms in the future.

  99. craigm350 says:
    November 8, 2013 at 2:55 pm
    Ryan Maue firing on Twitter :
    - First of many garbage articles to come.

    a href=https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&gl=us&tbm=nws&authuser=0&q=typhoon+climate+change&oq=typhoon+climate+change&gs_l=news-cc.3..43j43i53.10074.19257.0.19433.22.6.0.16.16.0.77.435.6.6.0…0.0…1ac.1.Blf5O6XscZQ>As predicted. Some highlights from the articles:

    Climate change is loading the dice for extreme weather events like Haiyan. The storms strength and rapid development have been aided by unusually warm ocean waters and warm, moist air (warm air holds more water vapor than cold). Global warming also causes sea level rise, increasing the risk of flooding from storm surges, especially in low-lying areas like much of the Philippines. Carbon dioxide is the steroids that leads to grand-slam storms like Haiyan. Haiyan should be a five-alarm wake up call for negotiators in Warsaw and the capitals that sent them here.

    Hurricane researchers contacted by Climate Central said Haiyan is an example of the type of extreme storm that may become more frequent as the climate continues to warm.

    We don’t yet know the death toll or damage done, but we do know that the strength of tropical storms such as Haiyan or Bopha is linked to sea temperature. As the oceans warm with climate change, there is extra energy in the system. Storms may not be increasing in frequency but Pacific ocean waters are warming faster than expected, and there is a broad scientific consensus that typhoons are now increasing in strength.

    Super-Typhoon Haiyan is almost like Katrina and Sandy combined.

    The Philippines is battered by an average of 20 major storms or typhoons each year, many of them deadly, but scientists have said climate change may be increasing their ferocity and frequency.

    More to come. You can bank on it.

  100. Galileonardo…. you clearly have not studied storms in any detail whatsoever….. there is no trend-towards-now for more violent storms, anywhere on earth. Storm extreme stats are scattered evenly throughout history. “scientists have said climate change may be increasing their ferocity and frequency”… this is utter rubbish. There are NOT more frequent , nor are they more violent. There is not a single shred of evidence to suggest they are. So “scientists” who state that are idiots, not scientists.

  101. jonny old boy says:
    November 9, 2013 at 10:29 am
    Galileonardo…. you clearly have not studied storms in any detail whatsoever…

    Mr. Old Boy, you clearly have not studied my history here (click my name to get an idea of where I stand on AGW). When I said “more to come” I didn’t mean the super-duper intense extreme superstorms, I meant the “utter rubbish” that inevitably follows from the media and activist pseudoscientists in the wake of “extreme weather” as correctly predicted by Mr. Watts and Ryan in this post. Sorry if you misunderstood. There will undoubtedly be more rubbish to come, and for that matter, more extreme weather as has always been the case.

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