Image Credit: NOAA – Storm Prediction Center
By WUWT Regular Just The Facts
US Tornadoes are currently on pace for a record low annual tornado count, which has penetrated deep into the legend in the graph above and is relevant globally, as the US represents about 75 percent of the world’s recorded tornadoes. Last week I pointed out that the Atlantic Hurricane Season was the Quietest in 45 Years and the week before that I showed that Antarctic Sea Ice Didn’t Get The Memo That It Was Supposed To Melt. It is amazing how easy alarmist scare forecasts/predictions can be falsified with readily available data, e.g. from TheHill.com:
“Former Vice President Al Gore lamented on Tuesday that scientists “won’t let us yet” link tornadoes to climate change.
Gore alluded to last month’s devastating twister in Moore, Okla., saying that shoddy historical statistics are preventing a connection between ‘these record-breaking tornadoes and the climate crisis.'”
“Gore said there’s a political interest in determining climate change causes extreme weather. He said lawmakers cannot address the root of disasters without first making a connection between emissions, climate change and extreme weather.
Failing to acknowledge that connection will imperil future relief efforts as disasters grow more frequent and expensive, Gore said.”
“Insurance agencies and climate activists contend the government will be increasingly on the hook for disaster cleanup as a result of climate change. They say storms are growing fiercer, subjecting more areas to disaster-related damage that private insurers are hesitant to cover.”
“Making a connection between emissions, climate change and extreme weather”? “Storms are growing fiercer”? Where? Perhaps buried in the rest of the Tornado data?:
US Tornadoes Daily Count and Running Annual Trend
US Strong to Violent Tornadoes (EF3-EF5*) – Annual Count 1950 to Present
US Tornadoes (EF1-EF5*) – Annual Count 1950 to Present
US Inflation Adjusted Annual Tornado Trend and Percentile Ranks
That doesn’t appear very “fierce”. In fact the Inflation Adjusted Annual Tornado count appears to be 100 tornadoes below the Minimum through Nov. 02. Of note tornado counts are Inflation Adjusted;
“because the increase in tornado reports over the last 54 years is almost entirely due to secular trends such as population increase, increased tornado awareness, and more robust and advanced reporting networks. NOAA – Storm Prediction Center“
However, even if there hasn’t been an increase in tornadoes due to “Global Warming”, “Climate Change”, Global Climate Disruption”, Global Weirding, or whatever it’s called today, there apparently is still reason to worry, at least according to USA Today:
“Deadly and destructive thunderstorms — and the violent tornadoes they produce — are forecast to see a “robust” increase across parts of the U.S. in upcoming decades because of climate change, says a new, first-of-its-kind study published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.”
“The study is one of the first that’s found such a link between climate change and severe storms. Most previous research has been inconclusive.”
“Diffenbaugh’s study co-authors were Martin Scherer of Stanford and Robert Trapp of Purdue University. The research team used a group of complex climate computer models to look at how the atmosphere will react to global warming.”
Here’s the Diffenbaugh paper “Robust increases in severe thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing“, the abstract states that:
Severe thunderstorms are one of the primary causes of catastrophic loss in the United States. However, the response of such storms to elevated greenhouse forcing has remained highly uncertain. We use an ensemble of global climate model experiments to probe the severe thunderstorm response. We find that this ensemble exhibits robust increases in the occurrence of severe thunderstorm environments over the eastern United States. In addition, the simulated changes in the atmospheric environment indicate an increase in the number of days supportive of the spectrum of convective hazards, with the suggestion of a possible increase in the number of days supportive of tornadic storms.
“Simulated changes in the atmospheric environment” provide “the suggestion of a possible increase in the number of days supportive of tornadic storms”? Translated, assuming that the atmosphere gets a lot warmer, which shows no signs of doing, then we guess that there will be more tornadoes, though the warming in the second half of the 20th century does not appear to have has this effect.
The data shows no increase in tornado counts or strength. Claims about increasing or more dangerous Tornadoes are unfounded.
There is not yet a WUWT Tornado Reference Page, but the WUWT “Extreme Weather” Page offers graphs and graphics on an array of “Extreme Weather” events including Tornadoes, and the WUWT Tornado Reference Page is under development. If you have any suggested graphs or graphics for inclusion in the WUWT Tornado Reference Page, please post them in comments below.