People send me stuff.
Below is a letter I received today that has a number of follow up questions answered by Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. after his blockbuster testimony last month.
Pielke’s responses are all about questions on extreme weather. Note Senator Whitehouse’s first question which basically reads: “look, I’ve been wrong and making up nonsense for a long period of time, but isn’t it OK because this other guy is wrong as well?”
For the record: “The effects of climate change, driven by carbon pollution, hit Americans harder each year. Extreme weather events like hurricanes, wildfires and droughts are growing ever more frequent and severe.” – Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, Reuters June 19, 2013
It is a good read.
20 August 2013
Senator Barbara Boxer, Chairman Senator David Vitter, Ranking Member
US Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works
Washington, DC 20510-6175
Dear Senators Boxer and Vitter:
The accompanying two pages contain my responses to the questions posed by Senators Whitehouse and Vitter. I have reproduced the questions in italics and my replies are offset immediately following each question.
I am grateful for the opportunity to share some of our research before the committee and to provide some replies to questions from members.
Sincerely,
Roger Pielke, Jr.
Professor and Director (as of Sept 1 2013)
Center for Science and Technology Policy Research University of Colorado/CIRES
Boulder, CO
===============================================================
Replies of Professor Roger Pielke, Jr. to Questions from Senate EPW 21 August 2013
Questions from Senator Sheldon Whitehouse:
1) In your written testimony, you stated:
“It is misleading, and just plain incorrect, to claim that disasters associated with hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, or droughts have increased on climate timescales either in the United States or globally. It is further incorrect to associate the increasing costs of disasters with the emission of greenhouse gases.”
In your opinion as a science-policy expert, is it also misleading, and just plain incorrect, to claim that man-made global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people?
PIELKE REPLY: Yes. Both such claims are misleading and incorrect.
2) Who funds your research currently? Please supply a full list for the record.
PIELKE REPLY: I currently have one active grant. It is a small grant from the Nathan Cummings Foundation for a project looking at the role of philanthropy in policy and politics (it has nothing to do with climate or extreme events), drawing on an engagement model I proposed in my book, The Honest Broker (Cambridge University Press, 2007). Also, at the University of Colorado, I am a Fellow of CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences) which is a NOAA Joint Institute.
Questions from Senator David Vitter
1) Dr. Pielke, as I read Mr. Nutter’s testimony, he appeared to be trying to tell us that businesses face a disaster that is happening now. But according to a recent Lloyd’s of London survey of almost 600 corporate executives about the risks faced by their business, they ranked climate change #32 behind “piracy” but ahead of “space weather.” High taxation was ranked #1. Regulation was ranked #5. Why do you think they placed climate change at #32?
PIELKE REPLY: Human-caused climate change likely ranks low in the Lloyd’s 2013 Risk Index1 because the vast majority of impacts associated with such changes that would be of direct concern to global businesses in 2013 are presently small or even undetectable at present in the context of historical climate variability, as discussed in my testimony.
1 http://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insight/risk-insight/lloyds-risk-index
2) Dr. Pielke, do you agree with comments made during the hearing that the weather here in the U.S. has fundamentally changed as is evidenced by an increase in hurricanes, droughts, floods, and tornadoes? Do you agree there is “strong evidence” that extreme weather events in the U.S. have become more frequent and intense?
PIELKE REPLY: A range of evidence summarized in my prepared testimony indicates that, on climate time scales in the US or globally, there has not been an increase in hurricanes, droughts, floods or tornadoes. The evidence for this claim is strong and is well-supported in the peer-reviewed literature, data collected by the U.S. government’s research agencies and the recent report on extreme events by Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change.
3) Dr. Pielke, to reiterate your points debunking claims that weather events in the United States are “extreme” in that they are increasing and more intense I would like to ask you a series of questions and provide you the opportunity to answer each.
a) Have United States landfalling hurricanes increased in frequency or intensity since 1900? Have they increased globally? Has damage, adjusted for more people and property, increased in the US or elsewhere?
PIELKE REPLY: As presented in my testimony, the US has not seen an increase in hurricane landfall frequency or intensity since at least 1900, nor in measures of damage, normalized for societal change. In fact, the US is presently in the longest stretch without a Category 3+ hurricane landfall since at least 1900.
b) Has United States flooding increased on climate timescales? Globally? Have United States tornadoes increased? Has United States drought overall increased?
PIELKE REPLY: As presented in my testimony, the US has not seen an overall increase in flooding, nor has such an increase been documented globally. The same holds also for tornadoes and drought.
c) Has the cost of disasters increased globally as a fraction of GDP?
PIELKE REPLY: As presented in my testimony, the cost of disasters as a fraction of global GDP has actually decreased since 1990.
4) Has anyone taken you up on your June 27th twitter invitation to defend President Obama’s claim? (“Open invitation: Does anyone wish to defend the Obama claim that worse extreme weather is increasing disaster costs?”)
PIELKE REPLY: No one took up the challenge.
===================================================================
The original letter in PDF form is here: Senate.Response.20Aug2013 (1)
h/t to Bryan Zumwalt
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That says it all.
I see Senator Sheldon Whitehouse only asks two questions:
One about whether man-made global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetratedand another on Roger Pielke’s funding
Nothing like technical questions but then why would the Senator ask such questions since he is not interested in the answers!
Yep, that’s about right…
I vaguely recall that it’s been 8 years since a major hurricane struck the U.S. Therefore global warming means fewer major hurricanes for the US. :-p
Soooooo, now we should never see another claim from a US senator that extreme weather events are increasing. They have been informed that claim is not supported by any science. They wouldn’t lie, would they?
I vaguely recall that so far the U.S. is having its quietest tornado season on record. Therefore global warming means fewer tornadoes. :-p
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/19/2013-is-a-record-low-year-for-u-s-tornadoes/
Richard M says:
August 21, 2013 at 12:07 pm
Soooooo, now we should never see another claim from a US senator that extreme weather events are increasing. They have been informed that claim is not supported by any science. They wouldn’t lie, would they?
=
Your senators seem to be a bit like our MPs in the UK – and indeed MEPs; if their mouth is open, they’re probably lying (but possibly brown-tonguing – or both). It seems to have worsened since the arrival of the ‘political’ candidate; graduate researcher, assistant, councillor, MP, minister – without ever doing a day’s work. All three ‘major’ parties here; the UKIP folk, mostly, have had jobs – even real wealth-creating ones.
But who is going to tell President Obama that accelerated global warming has not occurred in the last 10 years, but instead, global warming has ceased in the last 15 years? Who is going to tell him that he should issue a public statement to that effect?
“In fact, the US is presently in the longest stretch without a Category 3+ hurricane landfall since at least 1900.”
Is that true? I’m thinking of:
Hazel (1954), Audrey (1957), Flora (1963), Cleo (1964), Frederic (1979), Joan (1988), Iniki (1992), Luis (1995), Charley (2004), Dennis (2005).Camille (1969), Anita (1977), David (1979), Gilbert (1988), Andrew (1992), Dean and Felix (both in 2007).
PIELKE REPLY: No one took up the challenge.
John Holdren should be asked to resign.
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse talks of extreme weather events observed to be increasing when they are not. Mr. Whitehouse needs to read THIS
, extreme climate during lower co2. He also talks of nasty hurricanes. I thought hurricanes were worse during the Little Ice Age.
Here is some further reading for Senator Sheldon should he pass by.
Dr. P., Jr., congrats for your Directorship! May your research continue to be productive and noteworthy.
J. Philip Peterson says:
August 21, 2013 at 12:23 pm
“Is that true? I’m thinking of:…”
The claim is that it is the longest absence of cat 3 hurricanes land-falling US since 1900. Not that there have been none since 1900.
1. Not only the longest period without a major huuricane(cat 3 or higher) to strike the US but
2. Tornadoes near record lows the past 2 years
3. Last years widespread US drought in the Midwest broke the longest streak for most years without a drought, going back to 1988. 24 years of the best growing seasons in the Cornbelt since records started.
Do no hurricanes make the news? nope. The cat 1 hurricane, climate change induced Super Storm Sandy did( there were 3 cat. 3’s effecting the US in 3 months of 1954)
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/01/hurricane-season-begins-with-a-new-record-hurricane-drought-for-the-usa/
Do no tornadoes make the news? Nope, the Moore OK and Joplin MO, climate change induced tornadoes did. 7 out of the 8 years with the most amount of strong to violent tornadoes occurred between 1954-1974(during global cooling) The other top 8 year was 2011………from climate change.
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/tornado/clim/EF3-EF5.png
Do good growing conditions in the Cornbelt make the news. Nope. The one year with the climate change induced drought, 2012 did. Corn yields have been soaring. Yes, technology and genetics get most of the credit but weather has been a huge plus too.
http://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/timeless/YieldTrends.html
Clearly, isolated events like this in the midst of overwhelming beneficial and non extreme weather for decades would make a case, that if this is the climate change that is happening, we sure as heck should nurture it and try to keep it going as long as possible!
The question from Sen. Whitehouse to Pielke on the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people is certainly a loaded question. The correct answer is of course No, because one has to consider the others as in a) Vietnam victory surge by Pres. Johnson, b) Pres. Johnson’s Great Society spending program, c) Obama stimulus and shovel ready, d) Jimmy Carter energy policy solutions and the start of Yucca Mountain storage program, and e) Sen. John Edwards was worthy of high elected office.
Sheldon Whitehouse is a typical career lawyer with no science training. His Yale degree was Architecture. He is married to a marine biologist, so he can refer science questions to her.
His questions reveal he has no clue about “Science” in any way. Pielke should have asked him to describe the scientific method in his own words.
Wait, maybe he stayed in a Holiday Inn last night.
Please, Dr Pielke, tell the world you’re a skeptic now.
You just made the perfect case against CAGW.
On the strong to violent tornadoes, that should be 5 out of the top 6 years were between 1954-1974, not 7 out of 8. Sorry about that.
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/tornado/clim/EF3-EF5.png
I would bet Boxers face looked like it just had another facelift after reading that letter.
Nice job !
J. Philip Peterson says:
August 21, 2013 at 12:23 pm
“In fact, the US is presently in the longest stretch without a Category 3+ hurricane landfall since at least 1900.”
Is that true? I’m thinking of:
Hazel (1954), Audrey (1957), Flora (1963), Cleo (1964), Frederic (1979), Joan (1988), Iniki (1992), Luis (1995), Charley (2004), Dennis (2005).Camille (1969), Anita (1977), David (1979), Gilbert (1988), Andrew (1992), Dean and Felix (both in 2007).
——————————————————————————————————————-
Yes, it’s true. The last cat 3+ hurricanes to hit the United States were Charley, Ivan and Jeanne, all in 2004 (last seen Mexico, Nicaragua and Honduras – where Dean and Felix made landfall – aren’t part of the United States).
That gives 9 years since a cat 3 or greater hurricane has landed in the US, which is actually the longest gap since the 11 years between 1860 and 1871 according to NOAA data here http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastint.shtml . The next lngest gap since 1900 is the 6 years between 1909 and 1915, so the current pause is a substantial 50% longer than anything in the last 100+ years!
It’s worth bearing in mind, of course, that back in the 1860s there could well have been even major hurricanes landing in remote areas without anyone noticing!
While I agree to a point with Dr. Pielke that the exact phrase: ”man-made global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people” is incorrect and misleading, I think he missed a golden opportunity to provide more context and describe the common mischaracterization of AGW as being undoubtedly catastrophic and scientifically “proven” to require immediate action in order to deceive the electorate into supporting various programs more likely to line the pockets of politicians and their friends or have unfavorable results on the economy and especially the poor than to have any effect on climate (i.e.: a hoax of unprecedented scale).
“The claim is that it is the longest absence of cat 3 hurricanes land-falling US since 1900. Not that there have been none since 1900.”
OK, I get it, I remember the graph now. It was the wording that tripped me up.
Our governmental system of representation almost guarantees that the representatives are put into office based on funding, not on scientific intelligence or the ability to learn. The representatives will go with the “flow” [of money]. Look at the education levels. How many Bachelor of Science, Master of Science, PhD s are there??? Don’t you need a math/science background to even understand our “scientific new world”?
Does a Law Degree help you to understand the complex computer models that are used in science today?
The entire system is based on money, money flows, grants and future funding.
Try to talk to a representative about any technical issue [I have]: “They know nothing”.
I just checked again .
at 1:58. Dr. Cullen actually suggests that we cannot look at the global level to see the “signal” for Global Warming. instead we need to “think regionally”
serously, watch this. I predict this will be the next itteration of the CAGW warmists screed. Global Warming is visible ONLY at the regional level.
I didnt go thru the whole thing, but I am certain that she makes this very same statement later in the presentation.