English Winters Back To Normal–Julia Blames Global Warming!

By Paul Homewood

Julia Slingo – head of the Met Office.

According to the Sun,

Britain’s winters are getting colder because of melting Arctic ice, the Government’s forecaster said yesterday.

Met Office chief scientist Julia Slingo said climate change was “loading the dice” towards freezing, drier weather — and called publicly for the first time for an urgent investigation.

Prof Slingo said: “If you look at the way our weather patterns have behaved over the past four or five years, we’re beginning to think that there is something happening.

“Our climate is being disrupted by the warming of the Arctic that we have observed very dramatically since 2007.

“We should pull together the best scientists to see how we can detect the influence of the Arctic on the jet stream, and on weather around the world.”

So just how cold have Britain’s winters become? Well, according to the Central England Temperature series, not very! The winter just gone ranks an unremarkable 187th coldest in the 354 years since the index started in 1660. Figure 1 shows just how unremarkable it has been. The 2012/13 winter finished at 3.83C, a fraction above the mean over the whole record of 3.72C.

image

Figure 1

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

Slingo also talks about the 5 year trend, so let’s look at that as well.

image

Figure 2

There has certainly been a sharp drop away from the abnormally mild winters between 1998 and 2008, but this only takes us back to the sort of winters that were prevalent during most of the last century, and still much warmer than the 19thC. The current 5-year average is 3.6C, exactly the same as the average temperature from 1980-89. And from 1960-69, the average was, you’ve guessed it, also exactly 3.6C.

Previous Predictions For Milder Winters

So why is Slingo so concerned? To understand this, we need to look back at all of the predictions, made in recent years by the Met Office and others, of warmer, wetter winters.

These, of course, were based on the handful of milder winters around the turn of the century. There are too many to list, but here’s a few examples:-

1) In 2006, Met Office meteorologist Wayne Elliott told the BBC

It is consistent with the climate change message. It is exactly what we expect winters to be like – warmer and wetter”

2) In 2011, Slingo signed off the Met’s “Climate: observations, projections and impacts” Report that had this to say about the extreme cold in December 2010

It is considerably warmer than the winter of 1962/63, which is the coldest since 1900 in the CRUTEM3 dataset. In the absence of human influences, the season lies near the central sector of the temperature distribution and would therefore be an average season.

3) Myles Allen told the Telegraph in 2009

Even though this is quite a cold winter by recent standards it is still perfectly consistent with predictions for global warming. If it wasn’t for global warming this cold snap would happen much more regularly. What is interesting is that we are now surprised by this kind of weather. I doubt we would have been in the 1950s because it was much more common. “

4) DEFRA’s Climate Change Risk Assessment Report, issued last year, states

In the UK, we currently expect a shift towards generally wetter winters…..and an increase in winter rainfall volumes of between 3% and 70%.

5) In December 2010, Slingo , talking about the cold weather, told the Independent,

 “Global warming is continuing and we know that from the global trends. There will, of course, be large local and regional variations from year to year. So this event that we’re currently experiencing is not unprecedented.”, adding “A final complication is that a regular pattern of natural climate change over the North Atlantic, called the multi-decadal oscillation, may be about to enter a cooler phase, just as it did in the 1960s, when Britain also experienced colder-than-normal winters.”

6) And the Met’s own private briefing for the Environment Agency last summer admitted

If low levels of Arctic sea ice were found to be affecting the track of the jet stream, for example, this could be seen as linked to the warming of our climate – but this is currently an unknown.

7) And in 2010, Slingo presented a “Briefing on the likelihood of severe winter weather over the next 20-30 years “to Sir John Beddington, which concluded

a) Prolonged snowfall and low temperatures, comparable with conditions seen during November and December 2010 are within the range of natural climate variability observed over the past 50 years.

b) The latest available regional climate projections for the UK (UKCP09) indicate a reducing likelihood of severe winters in future, due to the long-term warming climate. Natural climate variability implies that severe events remain possible but with reduced likelihood.

And we won’t even have to mention David Viner’s famous “Snow is a thing of the past”.

Backtracking

It is understandably embarrassing for the Met Office to see so many of their predictions blowing up in their faces. But, instead of simply accepting that they were wrong in misinterpreting a few years of data in the way they did, they are desperately searching for a way to pin the blame for a return to normal winters on global warming.

It is hard to see just how much credibility they have left when it comes to predicting climate, or even understanding past climate. As their Chief Scientist, Julia Slingo must surely accept overall responsibility for this sorry state of affairs.

According to the Met Office Accounts for 2011/12, Slingo was paid a salary of £135000 – £140000, with an additional bonus of £25000 – £30000. This is a cost that can no longer be justified.

She should go now.

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193 thoughts on “English Winters Back To Normal–Julia Blames Global Warming!

  1. Seriously how often must a public sector employee fail in their job before being penalised?, as for the bonus this is a terrible indictment on the outrageous misuse of taxpayer money so beloved by the UK state.

  2. Facts are stubborn things. The facts are the models failed to predict the cooling. The facts are there is no evidence for CAGW. So go ahead and continue to assign causality to spurious correlations (warmer arctic?/colder European winters) sea ice and a warmer arctic aren’t the same thing. Met has no credibility with thinking people; .

  3. I feel sorry for people that have to put up with ramblings from monolithic organizations of govt. or other varieties. Who could have predicted that the peoples that forced through the signing of the Magna Carta to confront the whims of dictators were in turn subjected to the whims of protected bureaucrats.

  4. So now global warming causes abnormally normal weather.

    And no one is firing these idiots, or laughing them off the planet.

    Screw it. I give up. I’m old enough that I won’t see the worst results of their insanity anyway. Let ‘em drag the human race back into the Stone Age, and then extinction.

  5. The good old “loading the dice” metaphor. Do they all get their “science communications” training at the same propaganda school? A quick googling reveals amongst previous users of the metaphor: Krugman, Hansen, Mann; then of course the sycophants NYT, SKS, Forbes, and it even arrived just a few days ago at The World’s Best Thinkers On This And That, http://theenergycollective.com/jim-baird/205191/loading-climate-dice-stacking-odds-against-canada-s-long-term-interests
    (I love their understatement)

  6. The glorious Met Office actually believe that UK peak power demand will shift to summer? Is there more than one UK on this planet? Or are they talking about a “virtual” UK?

    “Impacts on the UK energy industry”

    “Using our climate models to assess future temperature increases, we looked at how this could effect all aspects of the energy industry. This included factoring in issues such as the affect of heat on the efficiency of thermal power stations. We also studied the potential changes in demand as our seasons are altered under climate change – such as an expected shift in peak power demand to the summer as people rely more on air conditioning.”

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/climate-services/uk/ukcp/impacts/energy

  7. Talk to any local farmer in our neck of the woods and he’ll have more idea and paint a better picture of the seasonal variations and weather patterns of recent years.

    Ah yes – observation, just when did the Met Office throw observation under a bus?

    Observation, gone out of their shiny new super computer facility. Yep, the answer is when the Met office stopped being an objective forecasting agency and filled its ranks with common purpose apparats who know little or next to nothing about meteorology but lots about ‘fixing’ T data and ‘creative’ statistical methodology.

    Time to go Mrs. Slingo – your flatulent rambling; incoherent oratory, schoolgirl-like dire excuses, pseudo science and boneheaded adherence to a political fiction [CAGW] are becoming a tad tiresome, just bu88er off to somewhere where your bogus delphic climate divinations can inflict less damage to the British economy and what remains of our industrial base.

  8. Same old story. If it is warm it’s global warming.If it’s cold it’s cold it’s global warming. dry…global warming,wet…..global warming,sunny global warming,cloudy….. Maybe we should ask them instead what would not represent global warming! Just sayin don’t ya know?

  9. What an ignorant rationalization for the recent weather and for their utter failure in predicting it.

  10. Ask the Met Office or Prof Slingo for her accurate predictions for the next 1,2,3,4,& 5 years. When she calls them correctly – as she surely must having now completely rumbled ‘how it works’, then we can all worship at the alter of St Julia, can’t we?

    But here’s a prediction that WILL come true: they haven’t got a clue. Their CO2-dominated models aren’t working. They know it, but refuse to admit it, as that would mean the end of AGW theory and the eye-wateringly generous perks that go with ‘tackling climate change’.

    If they know their models are flawed but don’t acknowledge as such, they stray extremely close to fraud. Just sayin’.

  11. She totally ignores the solar link published in dozens if not hundreds of peer reviewed papers for decades. Just a few recent examples:

    Nature Geoscience 2010
    Solar activity may be to blame for unusually cold winters
    “There is a lot of different factors that affect our winter climate. However, the solar cycle would probably have been acting in a way that gave us those cold winters,” said Sarah Ineson, a climate scientist at the Met Office Hadley Centre near Exeter.”

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/solar-activity-may-be-to-blame-for-unusually-cold-winters-2368117.html

    Environmental Research Letters 2011
    “Over the next 50 years, the researchers show that the probability of the Sun returning to Maunder minimum conditions is about 10 per cent, raising the chances that the average winter temperature will fall below 2.5 oC to around 1 in 7, assuming all other factors, including man-made effects and El Niño, remain constant.”

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/05/study-solar-activity-lull-increases-chances-of-cold-uk-winters/

    AGU.org 2012
    Link found between cold European winters and solar activity
    “The freezing of the Rhine is very important on historical timescales.
    By comparing these freezing records to the eleven year cycle of solar activity, it was found that ten of the fourteen freezes occurred during solar minimum, i.e. when there were the least amount of sunspots for that cycle. Sirocko and colleagues found that there is a 99 per cent chance that the freezing is connected to the solar cycle.”

    http://www.sen.com/news/link-found-between-cold-winters-and-solar-activity.html

  12. Julia Slingo knows that Tarot cards are much better than science. Why use science when it does not give you the answer you want.
    Why do a real PhD when the university will just give you an honorary one anyway.

  13. this threatened to be a cold winter but wasn’t. However the last 6 weeks .. in Spring .. have been exceptionally cold throughout Britain . Here in Ireland we are dependent on food imports .. the last 12 months would have seen famine if reliant on home produce .

  14. More interesting is that there is no substantial evidence of any little ice age or modern warming in these winter data.
    Are these ‘climate fluctuations’ entirely due to differences in summer temperature?

  15. “Britain’s winters are getting colder because of melting Arctic ice, the Government’s forecaster said yesterday.”

    But there hasn’t been much of a change in the Arctic ice coverage during the NH winter. The biggest change in Arctic Ice coverage is during the NH summer.
    Is she saying that colder winters in the NH are caused by of melting ice in the NH summer?
    How does that work?
    As the ice cover in Antarctica is growing, can we expect warmer winters in the SH?
    Less ice causes cooling, more ice causes warming?
    It’s like that latest ‘study’ that blames global warming (which is according to all major datasets not happening) for record ice cover in Antarctica.
    What is the science behind this?

  16. Is there any wonder why the UK had become irrelevant since Maggie Thacher? They no longer believe in excellence, like their European counterparts, the results of zombies like this dead beat speak for themselves.

  17. My god; and this halfwit is their senior scientist. No wonder they are such a shambles. For crying out loud someone close that b”é””dy nest of vipers.

  18. Manfred says:

    April 12, 2013 at 1:09 pm

    None of those links is real science. Just speculation. Read carefully

  19. So no matter what happens, it’s global warming. Is there any way to falsify this God damn ‘theory’? Back in high school science we learned that a theory which predicts everything is useless because it can’t be frigging tested. What the hell wouldn’t be the fault of global warming in the eyes of these fruit loops?

    Worse yet, why are we horrible ‘skeptics’ the only ones with, frankly, the balls to ask these nimrods questions like that?

  20. Gareth Phillips says:

    April 12, 2013 at 1:02 pm

    That link is to a cet made from chosen station data. The site says that the temp it gives does not relate well to HadCET and it doesn’t. It is a good site but not good data.

  21. Let me get this straight : Having been told that if it gets warmer then that’s global warming and if it get’s colder then that’s also global warming we’re now expected to believe that if things stay the same it’s still global warming?

    We should nickname Julia the ‘Red Queen’.

    Mike.

  22. Green Sand says:

    April 12, 2013 at 12:42 pm

    This is the famous R Betts work. Say no more.

  23. @Daves “Is her bonus linked to her BS quotient?”

    In the final analysis, isn’t everyone’s?

    Mike.

  24. Unfortunate side effects of the Met Office failure to predict accurately include massive increases in energy (gas) due to the power companies not ordering enough for the winter season and having to purchase high-cost extra supplies to cover the shortfall.

  25. Stephen Richards says:
    April 12, 2013 at 1:25 pm
    “Manfred says:
    April 12, 2013 at 1:09 pm
    None of those links is real science. Just speculation. Read carefully”

    So you are saying that the guys who computed the correlation between the solar cycle and the freezings of the Rhine didn’t do real science. That’s interesting. Are you a kind of science umpire?

    You might want to tell the Uni Mainz about your findings.

    http://www.uni-mainz.de/presse/52970.php

  26. Met has no credibility with thinking people; .

    There are very few left in the UK. So no problem for dingo, cameron and cleggy.

  27. They should feel soooo embarrassed now whenever they say “Using our climate models…” – What a joke!

    Please tell me nobody take Slingo seriously.

    It’s time to hollow out these institutions and start over with people with no afflitiation and no bias. Sad to say, it should also be filled with a low paid bracket of scientists (sorry to all scientists), as low pay might actually keep the greens and the other egotists out of it.

    The world over, we need dedication to the truth and the presentation of evidence, not starlets waving a graph they just made up. And yes, let’s not be sexist, Michael Mann and the rest are starlets, too.

  28. 170,000 pounds per year + provision for retirement in keeping with the manner of her professional life + general overhead for her supercomputer, + secretaries, + personal travel to Bali, + a team of statisticians who really, really know how to run Excel and understand the word ‘significant’. This climate change parasite is costing the saps in the UK millions…and her only achievement is the death of a few thousand saps a year who cannot afford to heat their homes properly. But that is better than the alternative – no free money and conferences in warm places for Julia.

  29. So when the winters weren’t cold and snowy, it was because of Climate Change(TM).
    Now that they are cold and snowy, it’s because of Climate Change(TM).
    Yeah, clear as mud.

  30. So when it suits Julia it’s ok to use 5 years to identify a climate trend? And I thought us sceptics had been told we had to wait 15 years, or maybe longer if the trends don’t support the AGW hypothesis.

  31. She she be now known as JuLiar Slingo from now on, the utter crap she spews is sickening.Old people are dying in these cold winter spells, has she no shame

  32. Just another one of those responsible for the world’s most insane energy policies, that of the UK.

    A heavyweight bureaucrat, but obviously one much loved by the greenies.

    So, despite being utterly incompetent and irresponsible, her job is safe.

  33. Prof Slingo said: “If you look at the way our weather patterns have behaved over the past four or five years, we’re beginning to think that there is something happening.”

    Our models didn’t predict the weather patterns we are currently having, so we’ll adjust the models to fit the current pattern. In the meantime, we’ll stick our finger in the air and predict the future based on what is happening now. Long-term weather forecasting sure has come a long way since the days of reading animal entrails, hasn’t it?

  34. Unfortunately we can’t test this as the previous winter is now historical record. But does anybody on the planet doubt that had this winter been abnormally warm in jolly ole England that it also would have been the fault of shrinking ice caps?

  35. Joseph,

    “Seriously how often must a public sector employee fail in their job before being penalised?”

    No man has ever lived long enough to type enough digits to express such a number. :)

  36. “It is hard to see just how much credibility they have left when it comes to predicting climate, or even understanding past climate.”
    —————————————————————
    Credibility = Zero

    Understanding = Zero

    The basic implication in her statementa is that the near term changes are driven by CO2 but past analogous changes, which we can all clearly see with our own eyes with plots provided in this post, were not driven by CO2.

    Could you be any more illogical or unscientific ?

    Or do you think we are so uneducated & unintelligent that we can’t see the obvious?

    In either case, this is just plain pathetic !

  37. For that salary, I’d be happy to replace Julia and say, “Global warming caused the cold winter”. I believe I could keep myself from laughing as I said it–maybe not.

  38. What does a “chief scientist” get a 30k bonus for? Showing up on time, counting on both hands? Perhaps it is based on some Wall Streetesque logarithm of performance based on how many suckers you can bamboozle.

  39. There is so much money involved in this scam that Im very doubtful that the North Pole information is even true.. Their little playground where the only witnesses are the Inuit (promised huge sums of money to help them deal with the warming)..

    Everybody involved has their hand in the cookie jar..

  40. albertalad says:
    Is there any wonder why the UK had become irrelevant since Maggie Thacher?

    Well since you can’t even spell here name I guess you were not following UK politics that closely at the time. Let be bring you up to speed.

    She sold off all our national assets to foreign investors. Massive assets like British Telecom were sold off at half price. Gas was sold. The mines were shut, Making our biggest natural resource unexploitable in the future. (Once the galleries are no longer maintained they can never be reopened).

    She shut down the country’s manufacturing base and instead made the economy reliant on the financial services sector that she deregulated. Unemployment rose from 1 million when she came to power to 4 million when we (belatedly) threw her out.

    The deregulation of the banks resulted in the current mess where we just about doubled our national debt in ONE year with bank bail outs.

    The current round of “austerity” that is destroying public services and creating even more unemployment and putting the economy in an ever deepening spiral, is now apparently necessary to reduce the huge debt we incurred underwriting irresponsible , deregulated banks.

    Britain now imports most of its energy including coal and gas from abroad, with little manufacturing base to pay for any of it.

    So it is no wonder that Britain is becoming irrelevant since Thatcher . She ripped the arse out of the country and sowed the seeds of the decay that now characterises a once great country.

    BTW, she also was instrumental in starting the CO2 scam as one of her top ministers: Leon Britten stated in the “The Great Global Warming Swindle” . She opened the Met Office Hadley Climate Research Centre, where the above mentioned Ms Sling-ya-hook is currently chief climate propagandist.

    But of course , no one likes to speak ill of the dead , so instead calling her a bitch like we did when she was alive, we’ll laud her a great patriot and bury her at St Paul’s with full honours.

  41. The winter of 62/63, we lived in a new house, and with a roaring fire in the living room there was 1/2 of ice on the windows…was that global warming?

  42. The winter of 62/63, we lived in a new house, and with a roaring fire in the living room there was 1/2 of ice on the windows…was that global warming?

  43. She’s a twit.

    There are a lot of good people in the Met Office whose work is being undermined by idiotic comments from people like her which have just undermined the Met office and turned it into a laughing stock.

  44. Jay says: There is so much money involved in this scam that Im very doubtful that the North Pole information is even true.

    Well actually it may well be. It was just as relevant in the 80s and 90s when it prevented the cold whether from coming down as far and caused warmer conditions. Except that when it warms, it’s (implicitly human) “global warming” and when it cools you just have to realise it’s the jet stream.

    Like when it warms, it’s absolutely NOTHING to do with the sun because the variations are so minuscule it’s irrelevant. But when it cools (oops, I meant pauses) it because of unusually quiet sun.

  45. Indeed, how is it possible that a meteorologist discusses this issue without even mentioning NAO. If there is one thing you always need to make clients or the public aware of is that multidecadal fluctuations are a normal phenomenon which you need to be prepared for.

  46. Stephen Richards says:
    April 12, 2013 at 1:25 pm
    Manfred says:

    April 12, 2013 at 1:09 pm

    None of those links is real science. Just speculation. Read carefully
    —————————————————–

    No, that is peer reviewed science. I linked to press publications, because they are paywalled.

    You will find dozens of additional links from Alex Rawls at wattsupwitthtat. And dozens more at http://www.diekaltesonne.de/.

    My favorite is still Bond et al 2001, a classic, with perfect correlation of solar influence with ALL up and down moves in temperature over 11000 years.

  47. The Met Office is only able to “now cast” . Even Slingo has alluded to theit ability to forecast is based on probabilities, suggesting inadvertently maybe that one would do better going to one’ s local bookmaker. UK politicians need to wake up to the fact the Met Office is less than useless and using taxpayers money to fund them is simply an utter waste of money.

  48. Mike Haseler

    There are a lot of good people in the Met Office whose work is being undermined by idiotic comments from people like her which have just undermined the Met office and turned it into a laughing stock.

    That’s a good point, Mike.

    I have had personal experience of the same situation with NOAA. Many true scientists there are totally upfront and give you real data. Yet the upper echelons seem to be more preoccupied with spin and distortion.

  49. “Joe Public says:
    April 12, 2013 at 12:50 pm
    Maybe she’s just angling for an even-bigger computer.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1185629/Met-office-unveils-UKs-powerful-supercomputer-admits-weather-forecasts-WRONG.html

    I say give Slingo and the Met a Trash-80 (TRS-80) complete with tape unit
    (and a couple of audio cassettes….see if they can tell the difference [the data say....oops])
    and give the supercomputer(s) to folks who can actually do something useful with them!

    The only thing coming out of their models is trash, anyway…wait, maybe the
    TRS-80’s too good for them…

  50. Wasn’t it the Massachusetts Rep. Barney Frank who said we “want to load the dice a little bit more in this situation towards subsidized housing .” And, by the way, it was his Massachusetts colleague who was cosponsor of the Waxman/Markey carbon cap & trade scheme.

    Now we’ve got this:
    ‘Met Office chief scientist Julia Slingo said climate change was “loading the dice” towards freezing, drier weather — and called publicly for the first time for an urgent investigation’

    I dunno. But anytime I hear anybody affiliated with government use the term, ‘load the dice’ I think of them gambling with our money. And, at that roulette table they don’t have to win, break-even, or even so much as be practical or stay sober. And, remember, it’s not their’s, it’s our money. And, then, in public they use gambling terms referring to cheating. Now think about that and have a good night’s sleep.

  51. The Met Office morphed from being a weather forecasting bureau into being a propaganda generator for CAGW. Its success in this was shown by the passage of the UK’s Climate Change Act.

    The “science” (essentially unvalidated computer models, so far as I can see) is there to impress and give authority to its pronouncements (“It was produced by one of the world’s most powerful supercomputers and correctly predicts the past weather so we can have confidence it it”).

  52. First of all Margaret Thatcher did not rip the arse out of Britain…she rebuilt it and we had an amazing recovery that lasted until Laour took over a budget surplus in 1997and plunged us into debt. As regards our winter climate Ms Sligo should consult a solar physicist…you might get a few clues Julia…what a muppet.

  53. The MET Office needs to change its name to: “Massive Fail Office.” These people are beyond the pale. Don’t they realize that they lost ALL credibility years ago? The only people who believe their dribble are the hard core Alarmists, Warmists and bloodsuckers on the payroll. So when the earth cools naturally it is Global Warming causing Global Cooling. It goes like this, Global Cooling, Global Warming, Climate Change, Global Weirding. All caused by a tiny percentage of man released CO2. Whats next? “Global Cooling” of course. Idiots, do they really believe that we are going to forget Global Warming. I NEVER let other people talk about Climate Change, I remind them all the time that is it called AGW. Better still CAGW. All hell freezes over when I mention the beneficial effects of CO2.

  54. Here are some previous predictions of milder winters from the Met Office, the IPCC, scientists and the Warmist media. Here is a sample from the 60 quotes.

    “In the UK wetter winters are expected which will lead to more extreme rainfall, whereas summers are expected to get drier. However, it is possible under climate change that there could be an increase of extreme rainfall even under general drying.”
    Telegraph, Dr. Peter Stott, Met Office, 24 July 2007

    “The past is no longer a guide to the future. We no longer have a stationary climate,”…
    Independent, Dr. Peter Stott, Met Office, 27 Jul 2007

    Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms but could cause an increase in freezing rain if average daily temperatures fluctuate about the freezing point.”
    IPCC Climate Change, 2001

    “The lowest winter temperatures are likely to increase more than average winter temperature in northern Europe. …The duration of the snow season is very likely to shorten in all of Europe, and snow depth is likely to decrease in at least most of Europe.”
    IPCC Climate Change, 2007

    Climate fail. What I want to know is what would they say if we returned to milder, less snowy winters??? i am becoming dazed and confused. :-(

  55. My conlsusion is the benefits of a slightly warmer world through natural variation, that has occurred since the Little Ice Age, coupled with a small amount of warming from greenhouse gases, has been of a net overall benefit, when compared with the psychological and social damage that this warming has caused to the bureacracy who want to blame it all on human activtities, and their misguided social policies.

    Even though the bureaucrats fret, we are still ahead on the overall human benefit scale, so it’s not too bad.

  56. I think I have it figured out. Entirely from news clippings, not models or data. We’re caught in a cyclical phenomenon:

    1970’s; Catastrophic Ice Age coming! We’re all gonna die!
    1990’s; Catastrophic Warming coming! We’re all gonna die!
    2010’s; Catastrophic Normal coming! We’re all gonna die!

    Now there’s a couple of odd things about these cyclical predictions. First, they are 50% correct. We’re all gonna die (eventually). Second, the order seems messed up. I would have thought cold/normal/hot rather than cold/hot/normal. But many a climate scientist has made a fool of themselves by attaching a linear trend to cyclical phenomenon, so I’m not going to make that mistake. I’ll not predict the next phase of the cycle until more data has been gathered. I’ve no idea if the next phase will be warm or cold. We could have two normals in succession I suppose, but that seems remote.

  57. Love the photo of Julia Slingo above. Looks cold to me. She should have had a photo done with her sweating profusely with a caption underneath: “It is not the heat you know, its just that I sweat heaps when I lie.”

  58. And since Overland and Wang are at it again with Arctic Sea Ice, it’s going to get colder… sarc/

  59. I’m curious about the attitudes of average people in Britian towards global warming and specifically toward the MET. From what I hear on this blog, it sounds like you’ve had the worst forecasting, bouts of nasty cold weather, and the most damaging policies of any country. Does the common man still believe in this nonsense? (I live in Boulder, CO so hard for me to assess reality in US much less UK.)

  60. I live in the UK and when people tell me this winter has been cold I can’t believe them.

    When I was a lad in the fifties we used to go sledging nearly every year. That meant days of lying snow every year for days on end. We had one significant splodge this year (OK it was lateish) and that was it. I think we do get more White Easters than White Christmasses – in spite of Bing.

    1979, I think it was, had deep ruts on the main roads for weeks. 1963 had unbelievable amounts of snow for the UK midlands. My father told me that 1947 was similar. They used pneumatic drills to clear the roads locally then. The ice was solid and immovable.

    Incidentally, those years 1947, 1963 and 1979 were all separated by 16 years. We were told that this 16 year cycle would continue to get colder and colder until we were plunged into the next ice age. Then it got warmer.

    I can see no evidence that natural variability has been exceeded because it is not the warmest winter I can remember either.

  61. Prof Slingo said: “If you look at the way our weather patterns have behaved over the past four or five years, we’re beginning to think that there is something happening.” The explanation is simple. What is happening is that the whole CAGW Theory is falling apart and failing. The source of funding is faltering. It is time for Professor Julia Slingo to go.

  62. Here is another Dr. Viner moment.

    Unfortunately, it’s just getting too hot for the Scottish ski industry.”
    David Viner, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, 14 Feb 2004

    Recently we had:

    Earlier today, it was announced that the Cairngorms ski area would be closed due to blizzard conditions and severe drifting.
    Daily Record – 22 March 2013

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/wintry-snap-bites-snowfall-winds-1778553

    and

    Scottish ski resorts eye summer season
    FORGET the beach barbecues. Scots could be heading to the slopes this June, with two of the country’s ski resorts predicting there will still be snow on the ground at the height of summer.
    The Scotsman – 7 April 2013

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/environment/scottish-ski-resorts-eye-summer-season-1-2881471

    and

    The snowstorms in the UK have brought a huge boost to Scotland’s mountain ski areas. All report unprecedented conditions for the time of year. Easter is set to be one of the best. It has been quite a winter for the UK ski slopes.

    There are good winters in Scotland and there are bad ones.

    The weather is unreliable, changeable and can not be relied upon for snowsports.

    This winter we are happy to report on PlanetSKI that it is currently epic. Perhaps too epic.

    The current weather means some resorts were closed because of too much snow and wind.
    Planet Ski – March 29, 2013

    http://www.planetski.eu/news/4784

    Viner and others were wrong, again, but this is a sure sign of global warming. I don’t know ‘weather’ to laugh or cry. Yet they call us deniers, doubters, contrarians. Sheeeesh!!!

  63. Ms Julia Slingo needs to a have look at this graph, which is from the site linked to below, needs to have the sun-climate connection 101 brief, and needs to have a look at a comparison of solar cycle 24 to other solar cycles. It appears due the sun is moving rapidly to a Maunder like minimum and we are observing the start of global cooling do to the solar magnetic cycle change. It will be interesting to hear the public reaction to global cooling, after 20 years of stating there is a dangerous problem with AGW and anyone how points observations and analyze does not the extreme AGW hypothesis is a denier. Based on what has happened before the most amount of cooling will occur in the regions that had the most amount of warming which makes sense based on the mechanisms.

    Greenland ice temperature, last 11,000 years determined from ice core analysis, Richard Alley’s paper.

    http://www.climate4you.com/

    At the above site, the following graph, a comparison of the past solar cycles 21, 22, and 23 to the new cycle 24 is provided. That graph is update every six months or so.

    This is a graph, that is also located at the above site, that compares solar cycle 24 to the weakest solar magnetic cycles in the last 150 years.

    There are cycles or warming followed by cooling in the paleoclimatic record in the Northern Hemisphere and to a lesser degree in the Southern Hemisphere. The cycles are called Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles (named after the paleoclimate scientists that discovered the cycles) cycles and have a periodicity of 1450 years plus or minus 500 years. Each of the nine cycles of warming followed by cooling, in the last 11,000 years, correlate with cosmogenic isotopes changes. (Cosmogenic isotope changes indicate the sun was very active when the warm period occurred and that the sun went into a Maunder minimum after the warm period. Paleoclimatologist have been able to track 23 D-O cycles in the paleo record.)

    Cosmogenic isotope changes are caused by changes to the solar magnetic cycle. The sun produces what is called the solar heliosphere, pieces of the solar magnetic flux that are carried off into space by the solar wind. When the sun is very activity as it was in the last part of the 20th century (highest activity and longest time at high activity in 8,000 years) there is a very strong solar wind and a large amount of magnetic flux that is carried off into space.
    The magnetic flux in the solar heliosphere deflect high speed cosmic particles, mostly protons, so that they do not strike the earth (the high speed protons are called galactic cosmic rays (GCR), as the first discovers thought what they observed might be a new type of radiation). The high speed protons (GCR) strike the earth’s atmosphere and produce cloud forming ions. So when the solar magnetic activity is very high the solar heliosphere is more affective at deflecting GCR and there is hence less cloud cover on the planet. As clouds reflect radiation into space when there are less low level clouds the planet is gets warmer. (The sun modulates clouds in other ways. Clouds also warm the planet do to the greenhouse effect of the water or ice in the clouds. The net affect (reflection of radiation into space Vs water/ice GW) for low level clouds is cooling and for high level wispy cirrus clouds warming.)

    The regions where the GCR create the most amounts of clouds is over the ocean which is ion poor (there are more ions created over the continents as the continental rock is slightly radioactive which produces ions) and in the latitudes of 40 to 70.

    https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/74103.pdf

    The Sun-Climate Connection by John A. Eddy, National Solar Observatory
    Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate during the Holocene
    A more recent oceanographic study, based on reconstructions of the North Atlantic climate during the Holocene epoch, has found what may be the most compelling link between climate and the changing Sun: in this case an apparent regional climatic response to a series of prolonged episodes of suppressed solar activity, like the Maunder Minimum, each lasting from 50 to 150 years8. The paleoclimatic data, covering the full span of the present interglacial epoch, are a record of the concentration of identifiable mineral tracers in layered sediments on the sea floor of the northern North Atlantic Ocean. The tracers originate on the land and are carried out to sea in drift ice. Their presence in seafloor samples at different locations in the surrounding ocean reflects the
    southward expansion of cooler, ice-bearing water: thus serving as indicators of changing climatic conditions at high Northern latitudes. The study demonstrates that the sub-polar North Atlantic Ocean has experienced nine distinctive expansions of cooler water in the past 11,000 years, occurring roughly every 1000 to 2000 years, with a mean spacing of about 1350 years.
    Each of these cooling events coincides in time with strong, distinctive minima in solar activity, based on contemporaneous records of the production of 14C from tree-ring records and 10Be from deep-sea cores. For reasons cited above, these features, found in both 14C and 10Be records, are of likely solar origin, since the two records are subject to quite different non-solar internal sources of variability. The North Atlantic finding suggests that solar variability exerts a strong effect on climate on centennial to millennial time scales, perhaps through changes in ocean thermohaline circulation that in turn amplify the direct effects of smaller variations in solar irradiance. (William: The cause of warming and cooling is not changes to the total radiation of the sun. The sun does not get significantly warmer or colder. The cause of the warming is solar cycle changes that modulate the amount of planetary cloud cover.)

    Comments
    If you are interested in watching the anomalous solar cycle 24 unfold real time, this site provides an interesting summary.

    http://www.solen.info/solar/

    As noted in this paper the magnetic field strength of newly formed sunspots is decaying linearly for some unknown reason.

    http://www.solarspots.net/Documenti/teoria_LP.pdf

  64. Joseph says:
    April 12, 2013 at 12:14 pm
    Seriously how often must a public sector employee fail in their job before being penalised?
    ——————————
    Don’t ask us…….we had Hansen, Lisa Jackson and Obama all at once.
    No penalty just extra money for them to spend.
    cn

  65. The root cause of this humongous mistake has been ‘back radiation’. It does not exist. It is mistaken radiative physics [most scientist fail to understand the S-B equation] and a miserable failure, originating in Meteorology, to understand how a pyrgeometer works.

    Take this out and correct the physics and these models exaggerate GHG energy absorption by 6.85x and none of the IR absorbed is CO2 – Yup – there can be no CO2-AGW.

  66. P. Solar says:
    April 12, 2013 at 2:22 pm
    ——————————

    Your review about Thatcher is wrong wrong wrong.

    Unemployent was about 1.4 million in 1979 but alreay sharply rising, and 2 million when she let in 1990.
    Inflation was at about 10% in 1979 sharply rising to 22% in 1980, then going down to 3% and up to 9% in 1990.
    Coal production was contnuing in 1990 with a reduction of only about 25% versus 1979 levels.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22070491

    The current problems have little to do with deregulation of the financial sector.

    The opposite is true. The main reason is state interference. After all, we experience a government debt crisis allover Europe, the US and Canada.

    The main reason for the desaster are far too low interest rates since the 1990s until today, and those reponsible are Greenspan, Krugman, Clinton and their counterparts in Europe.

    Too low interest rates means a transfer of wealth from savers to speculators and debt makers.

    The financial sector grew to its monstrous dimensions in the 1990s. Hedge fonds emerged like mushrooms and individuals with connections and access to credits got unbelievably rich by pure speculation.

    The first malfunctions in the 1990s (Asia Crisis, Mexico, Crisis, Long Term Capital Hedgefond collaps) were “repaired” by even lower interest rates and bailouts. This was the emergence of the “Greenspan put” – speculators will eventually bailed out at taxpayers expense and lead inadvertedly to the stock market bubble in 2000.

    Though the stock market bubble collpase would have already requied a 1930s style depression to clean up the system and return the size of the financial sector back to Thatcher/Reagan times, it did not happen, because soon after, the housing bubble took over, also initiated in the 1990s with innovations like NINJA credits – housing for everyone, even without job, income or assets – and the subprime credit bundles.

    That eventially blew up in 2008. And the response was … government intervention at taxpayers expense and creation of massive addtional debt.

    Money printing has continued since then and is accelerating. In the West the cheap money is still flowing into speculation and assets price inflation and still taken out of the pockets of ordinary people, savers, pensioners and working midlle class, while in emerging market, the ultracheap money is creating overproduction which in some sectors already resembles the US 1929 economy.

    This has absolutely nothing to do with Thatcher and Reagan’s reign, the economy then was characterized by very high interest rates, which gave savers a decent return, avoided speculation and new industrial capacity was only financable with very sound fundamentals.

  67. Soon to be former Met Office chief scientist Julia Slingo says: “I look forward to my forced retirement when UKIP is elected, as it will free up my days to research the most optimal placement for tinfoil around my cranium.”

    Yes indeed Julia, your life will be well spent on that pursuit. Carry on…

  68. In the past some of us speculated that it wouldn’t be long before Warmists declared normal weather a sign of global warming. That moment has arrived with Julia Slingbat. Trenberth has also recently explained how in fact the world is still warming………..it’s just hiding in the oceans somewhere. Let me speculate here, right now: If we entered a globally synchronous Little Ice Age Warmists would still say that global warming is happening. Think pension funds, retirement, lavish funding, shame of name calling people deniers, [Ig]Nobel prizes, scientific superstar status, jaunts to tropical located conferences, government policy influence, etc.

  69. As someone who is paying taxes to pay for this crap, I would like to point out the latest trends in long term temperature records from around the globe – not just in England. It should be noted that many of these records were started by the British back when we had serious meteorologists.

    All of these show that we are well on our way back to 1960s temperatures around the world. Nothing to do with the spurious and unfounded claims of our redundant (but still employed) chief alarmist.

    Hong Kong:

    http://www.hko.gov.hk/climate_change/obs_hk_temp_e.htm

    Australia:

    http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=tmean&area=aus&season=0112&ave_yr=5

    Germany:

    http://www.dwd.de/bvbw/appmanager/bvbw/dwdwwwDesktop?_nfpb=true&_pageLabel=P28800190621308654463391&T3200049671164966387518gsbDocumentPath=BEA__Navigation%2FKlima__Umwelt%2FKlimaatlas.html%3F__nnn%3Dtrue&lastPageLabel=dwdwww_start

    Sweden:

    United States:

    And of course, England:

    The only reasonable conclusion from examining these is that overall, the world is now getting colder, having reached a peak about 5 years ago. Ms Slingo: you are wrong.

  70. Jeff says:
    April 12, 2013 at 3:02 pm
    …I say give Slingo and the Met a Trash-80 (TRS-80) complete with tape unit
    (and a couple of audio cassettes….see if they can tell the difference [the data say....oops])
    —————————————-
    Get one for Phil so he can lose non-reproducible historical data even easier.
    It doesn’t come loaded with Excel, does it?
    cn

  71. In two months time, we will see temperatures as high as 30C in Southern Alberta. In records going as far back as 6 months, this is unprecedented. Following this trend, we should see temperatures approaching 8 million degrees centigrade by the following summer, …….

    Do I get my supercomputer now?

  72. The warmists are the only group that trys to argue both sides of the coin (warming and cooling) and blame global warming. I said to my friends many years ago that they would try and do it.

  73. Greenland ice core shows Arctic was warmer than today during the MWP.
    That Arctic warming never caused cooling in Europe.

  74. Manfred says:

    April 12, 2013 at 3:45 pm
    ###
    Very well put…. Been saying similar for years but no one listens

  75. Met Office chief scientist Julia Slingo said climate change was “loading the dice” towards freezing, drier weather — and called publicly for the first time for an urgent investigation.
    No the call was for more money. Julia Slingo,you do not have a clue what is happening with either the weather or the climate, since you seem to mix up the two totally different natural phenomena.
    P.solar, you seem to have the same traits as Julia Slingo! You cannot remember the UK with the trade unions in control, inflation running at 25%, Britain being the “Sick man of Europe” , income tax top rate at 97.5% ensuring that anyone with any brains left the country!
    Margaret Thatcher brought the UK from it’s knees back to being a country to be proud of. Unfortunately, since then, we have had Major, then Blair and finally the worst of the Stygian witches, Brown! Now we have a Coalition and Slingo:

    It’s worse than we thought!!

  76. Since 1910 there have been three separate periods of warmer winters namely 1910-1938, 1971-1976 and 1987 2008. , a total of about 55 years out of 102 years. The rest of the time the winters fluctuated but were mostly below norm. So it is quite normal for UK to have cold winters at least half the time and sometime even longer . Prior to about 1860, the winters were cold for at least a hundred years in a row. The cold winters are returning because, the solar cycle has been declining since 2000, the global SST is declining .and AO is mostly negative. We are experiencing the pattern of 1880-1910 when we had similar situation with three low solar cycles and cooling oceans. That is why many of the winter records of this year are comparable to those about a100 years ago. The future trend of UK winters will most likely be colder winters like the pattern of 1880-1910. The problem is with the Met Office who seems to be unable to read or interpret their own climate data because they seem to have their global warming glasses on which distorts all their thinking in the wrong direction .Meanwhile their whole nation suffers as a result of wrong advice as the nation wrongly prepares for global warming only. .

  77. The more I see people like Slingo blame everything on Global Warming the more I am convinced that there is some sort of mental illness at play, or ar least some sort of phobia.

    Not too long ago AGW was going to cause warm dry winters, now it’s causing cold wet winters. Seriously???

  78. andrewmharding:

    I remember the 70s and 80s in our country. Your memory seems to be of a different land than the UK.

    It is a matter of opinion as to whether what Maggie Thatcher did as PM was good or bad. Decades after she left office she has died. Opinions are polarised about her, and there are many who mourn while many others celebrate her passing.

    Many people will attend her funeral and many will have great sadness. Many others are organising street parties to celebrate her passing, and ‘Ding, Dong, The Witch Is Dead’ by Judy Garland is topping the Hit Parade.

    This division is because some did well under Maggie but many suffered terribly. As a matter of deliberate policy she destroyed 20% of the UK economy during her premiership, and she switched from productive industry to what she called “service industry”; i.e. banking and related financial services. About 40% of our economy became banking and financial services. “All eggs in one basket” eventually loses the eggs when the basket gets a hole. A generation passed before the inevitable crisis, and then the US had a banking crisis which hit the UK with devastating effect so we have had a triple-dip recession from which we have yet to have any recovery.

    Importantly, in the context of this thread, Maggie was personally responsible for starting the AGW-scare.

    I appreciate your mourning and you have my genuine sympathy. However, using this thread to express those feelings is not appropriate. It threatens to create the same divisions on WUWT as are apparent in the UK.

    Richard

  79. I think this post has not only broken a record for most ad Hominim attacks per hour, but also the record for highest ratio of ad Hom’s to scientific information.

    A person can often learn a lot from WUWT comments. Unfortunately, this is not one of those cases. JP

  80. Bob Tisdale says:

    April 12, 2013 at 2:13 pm

    For that salary, I’d be happy to replace Julia and say, “Global warming caused the cold winter”. I believe I could keep myself from laughing as I said it–maybe not.
    ===========
    I know it was a joke.
    Is it possible to sell your soul more than once, or is there a limit ?

  81. Just two points, for conversation, not controversy: Julia? Obama’s campaign poster girl and Eric Blair’s heroine in 1984. Hmmmm
    Next, study two essential elements of the human condition: the growing of wine grapes and war. The first chronicles the sweeping effects of the climate changes that have occurred in just the last three hundred years; the second, the human suffering of brutal winters in 1918-19 and 1945-46, both not entirely freee of the effects of industrialization, particularly in Europe.

  82. John Parsons says:
    April 12, 2013 at 5:57 pm

    I think this post has not only broken a record for most ad Hominim attacks per hour, but also the record for highest ratio of ad Hom’s to scientific information.

    A person can often learn a lot from WUWT comments. Unfortunately, this is not one of those cases. JP

    ==============================================

    When the empirical evidence is overwhelming and you fail to admit your mistake, how do you get your point across? With mules a 2X4 was needed to first get their attention. With Climate warmists they frown on this practice.. So all we can do is point and laugh at the sheer stupidity..

    Do people like her know just how silly they look?

  83. John Parsons says:

    April 12, 2013 at 5:57 pm

    I think this post has not only broken a record for most ad Hominim attacks per hour, but also the record for highest ratio of ad Hom’s to scientific information.

    A person can often learn a lot from WUWT comments. Unfortunately, this is not one of those cases. JP
    =============
    You don’t have to like it.
    In fact, you don’t have to read it.
    Your call.

  84. Julia is the worst kind of denier – she is steeped in self-denial and is likely the only person left with an interest in climate who doesn’t think she’s profoundly incompetent.

  85. So why in the wordl would you blame cooling on warming and instead look back at the record and blame the sun or some patttern present last time it cooled? It’s called science, try it Slingo.

  86. “According to the Met Office Accounts for 2011/12, Slingo was paid a salary of £135000 – £140000, with an additional bonus of £25000 – £30000. This is a cost that can no longer be justified.”

    All that support and to my knowledge she has contributed nothing to our understanding of natural variability. It’s concerning and even painful to see money being wasted at that rate. This money could be efficiently divided over a number of frugal investigators productively exploring natural climate variability, still leaving Julia with more than enough to comfortably avoid poverty.

  87. Joseph says:
    April 12, 2013 at 12:14 pm

    Seriously how often must a public sector employee fail in their job before being penalised?

    I always thought failure was a requirement for job retention. Apparently they think so too.

  88. John Parsons says:
    April 12, 2013 at 5:57 pm

    I think this post has not only broken a record for most ad Hominim attacks per hour, but also the record for highest ratio of ad Hom’s to scientific information.

    A person can often learn a lot from WUWT comments. Unfortunately, this is not one of those cases. JP

    I’d wager that the number of people who have died from Slingo’s brand of “CO2 conservation” exceedes the number of ad hom attacks per hour, John. By an order of magnitude or two.

    What’s happening is a real catastrophe (now and not in 100 years) and it is man-made, hence anthropogenic. Unprecedented numbers of people are dying world-wide–a genocide!

    That’s why I label people like Slingo, Mann, and other “climate scientists” Catastrophic Anthropogenic Genocidal Warmistas.

    Obviously, you’re one of them, too.

    Does your comment not demonstrate hypocricy on an unparalleled scale? I’d suggest you think about it, but you’re so steeped in “climate science” propaganda that you’re beyond hope, unfortunately. Admitting you are wrong is as far beyond your capability as admitting Slingo is also wrong, but both are glarringly obvious.

  89. She says these dumb things to the public because she knows full well that the AGW conjecture does not support her belief that some open water AROUND the margins of a large ice cap in the WINTER (yes, it is well covered in the winter time) does not really make it colder a thousand or two miles to the south colder.

  90. Me thinks that the good Prof Slingo should join with the FFF (story preceding this) and enjoy analog cluster multi-variate simulations of the ‘climate system.’ :D

  91. AlecM says:
    April 12, 2013 at 3:45 pm

    Dangerous to spout such heresy here at WUWT where lukewarmers predominate, AlecM, but I unreservedly side with you.
    No need to torture a false confession out of mathematics, physics and temperature records – Nature has already performed the experiment and it’s there staring at us. I’ve said all this before, many times.
    If back radiation exists for carbon dioxide then it must also exist for, and be exceeded by, methane – most agree with this hypothesis. Now consider Titan and Ganymede, two giant gas planet moons of comparable size and mass.
    Ganymede has effectively no atmosphere and is much further from the Sun than Titan (Jupiter is farther away than Saturn, obviously). You would reasonably think it was much, much colder than Titan. Fair enough. Ganymede’s average surface temperature is -174.3C
    Titan has an appreciable atmosphere, about 1.5% of which is the dread greenhouse gas methane (most of the rest is nitrogen). So you would reasonably expect it’s average surface temperature to be much more than that of Ganymede. In fact it is -179.2C.
    So: in spite of being much closer to the Sun, and being blessed with a greenhouse gas rich atmosphere, Titan is if anything marginally colder than Ganymede.
    Oops, embarrassing.
    This is why I agree with you, AlecM. Such empirical evidence as there is seems to demolish the greenhouse theory.
    I really do wish that more people knew this, then we could all get back to a normal life. But some fat chance.

    LG

  92. I fully agree with Sligo…

    “Met Office chief scientist Julia Slingo said climate change was “loading the dice” towards freezing, drier weather — and called publicly for the first time for an urgent investigation.”

    So who is doing this investigation and who is paying for it and why do we need it when the Met Office and especially Sligo are so certain that global warming causes all this cold weather which is occurring all across the Northern Latitudes and not just in the UK. Surely they must have forecast this decades ago.

    It looks to me like Sligo is suggesting that somebody else should be doing her job.

    I fully agree with Sligo.

  93. As Karl Popper explained in “Conjectures and Refutations”, a theory that explains everything cannot be tested and is therefore “psuedoscience”. One wonders if people like Julia realize the harm that she is causing to real science. She worries about a warming world when she should be much more concerned about her destructiion of science.

  94. Pat Michaels says:
    April 12, 2013 at 9:10 pm
    As Karl Popper explained in “Conjectures and Refutations”, a theory that explains everything cannot be tested and is therefore “psuedoscience”. One wonders if people like Julia realize the harm that she is causing to real science. She worries about a warming world when she should be much more concerned about her destructiion of science.
    —————————————-

    John Parsons – do you not understand that this post and Anthony’s evisceration of the points this person makes are not ad hominem attacks. They are a sound destruction of her science. Commenters have moved on from this and questioned her abilities, ethics and motives.

    For example, if I question her motives and call her a climate science whore, that’s because I believe her to be a climate science whore, with her “fee” being paid for, most likely unwittingly, by the British taxpayer, via the pimp government. The science is already destroyed based on Popperian principles. No one is saying her pronouncements are wrong because she’s an idiot and climate science whore. They’re wrong because they’re shit science. The fact that she appears to be an idiot and climate science whore is perhaps what makes this so, but not necessarily.

    On the other hand, of course, this is all deliberate shit science, and many of the voting sheeple will believe the sound bytes, so she’s probably not an idiot. In fact, I would hazard a guess that she’s a very intelligent climate science whore.

  95. Pat Michaels says:
    April 12, 2013 at 9:10 pm
    As Karl Popper explained in “Conjectures and Refutations”, a theory that explains everything cannot be tested and is therefore “psuedoscience”. One wonders if people like Julia realize the harm that she is causing to real science. She worries about a warming world when she should be much more concerned about her destructiion of science
    ——————————
    I believe there are many out there that would be fine if science stopped right where it is or may be even went back a few centuries. They think technology has gone too far, already.
    cn

  96. LevelGaze says:
    April 12, 2013 at 8:31 pm

    > Ganymede has effectively no atmosphere and is much further from the Sun than Titan (Jupiter is farther away than Saturn, obviously).

    Care to try that one again?

    Mother very easily makes jelly sandwiches under no protest – Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune, and [need a new mnemonic] Pluto. My Very Easy Method: Just Set Up Nine Planets.

  97. It’s ironic that she is using the “loading the dice” metaphor, since that is exactly what she is trying to do, rather than come up with a plausible explanation for the cooling that is going on. The hystericalists have been loading the dice for at least two decades now and it doesn’t look like they are going to quit any time soon. Feeding the public silly unscientific theories that have no empircial basis should be anathema to a true scientist.

    Has any peer-reviewed paper been written yet that persuasively argues that warming in the Arctic causes cooling in Western Europe? There may be, but I am not aware of it.

  98. From what I could see of the newspaper article, somehow global warming at the north pole is pushing the colder air south. This does not make any sense. Why is it warming preferentially at the pole compared to lower latitudes? Warm air is lighter than cold air. Why would not the denser cold air come in underneath the warm air causing the warm air to rise drawing the colder air further north? How does warmer arctic air make it colder elsewhere?

    At least some sort of causal relationship should be given that would stand up in an introduction to meteorology , other than warmer air is pushing the colder air south.

  99. Slingo must be fired without a pension for all the damage she has done to the UK and world.

  100. @LevelGaze April 12, 2013 at 8:31 pm
    Yes, correct, there is no empirical evidence of ‘back radiation’. What’s more, it’s easy for this grizzled old metallurgical engineer turned applied scientist to prove that there is near zero net CO2 surface IR emission, subject to thermal incoherency. The same goes for all major GHG bands. If this did not happen, we could never get radiative thermal equilibrium. In order to understand this, I devised three rate equations to explain coupled convection and radiation to the dim climate alchemists, and they truly are dim to believe the guff they spout.

    Here’s something I wrote to Roy Spencer:

    It’s time someone nailed back radiation by linking to the basic physics [Goody and Yung is the source].

    Basically, climate alchemy adds 134.5 W/m^2 radiative warming out of thin air by assuming the energy leaving the Earth’s surface is 3.1 times greater than that which arrives.

    This is justified by 333 ‘back radiation’, which does not exist except as a potential energy flux to a sink at absolute zero. They claim they measure this by a pyrometer which internally converts the ‘temperature’ of the lower atmosphere via the S-B equation to its potential energy flux – pyrgeometers. This is a 50+ year old mistake from meteorology.

    Exaggerated warming of sunlit oceans is offset by exaggerated cloud albedo so they get the ‘right temperature’ in hind-casting. Because of the exponential evaporation kinetics there is vastly increased evaporation in sunlit oceans yet average temperature seems OK. This gives the imaginary positive feedback.

    They then give themselves Nobel prizes for being very good a cheating.

  101. Recently, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele himself, the vice-president of the IPCC, said on a Belgian television that the recent abnornal cold winter in Belgium was due to global warming, and that we must expect more “extreme weather” in the future.
    Idiot!

  102. Re the Margaret Thatcher debate I can’t help but notice the irony of the socialist/greenie brigade demonising fossil fuel use whilst at the same time villifying her for closing the coal mines!

  103. What a silly woman. Has she forgotten her colleagues equally crazy statement of 2000 when he proclaimed that our children would not have the pleasure of seeing snow in the years to come.

  104. richardscourtney says

    I appreciate what you said in your post and we must agree to disagree but with regard to what you said below:
    “I appreciate your mourning and you have my genuine sympathy. However, using this thread to express those feelings is not appropriate. It threatens to create the same divisions on WUWT as are apparent in the UK.”

    The people who want to “celebrate” the death of Margaret Thatcher, a frail, ill, old lady are of the left wing. They are a particularly nasty, unpleasant breed of people who resemble very strongly the extreme warmists. They are both politically very left of centre, they are not Socialist in the context of wanting the best for their fellow man, which is a view I strongly respect (although I don’t always agree with the means, by which they try to attain this ideal). What these left wingers want is control, they are not interested in how many people suffer or die (in fuel poverty?) in the process. As long as they can control society including thought (deniers?) that is their aim.
    Margaret Thatcher reduced the power of the trade unions to what they should be, representatives of workers, not organisations dictating government policy and threatening to bring the country to it’s knees if the incumbent government does not comply with their demands. She also supported Ronald Reagan to restore democracy in Eastern Europe and break up the USSR making nuclear armageddon a lot less likely. Had she been in power now, I am convinced that she would have realised that the advice she was given about AGW was wrong and people like Julia Slingo would not have jobs.
    This is why she is so hated twenty three years after she left office and no doubt her funeral will be turned into a violent, undignified occasion by the extreme left, who will once again demonstrate their unsuitability to govern a country or to dictate energy policies.

  105. As a Brit, I’d love to comment, but the WUWT snip filter would send it straight to the bit bucket. On Slingo and Thatcher both.

    Meanwhile, the sun’s out here. Probably that d#mn Arctic ice.

  106. Paul, I think your thread title should refer to Britain’s winters, or the UK’s winters. Regarding England as being the same of the UK is a bane for for the people of Scotland, Wales and Ireland. After all we don’t refer to the US as a substitute for North America, or do we? As you know we have devolved governments in the UK making us to an extent a federal state, and as such different countries have different policies. Labelling to all countries as England can cause confusion in who’s policies you a referring to.

  107. mojomojo says:
    April 12, 2013 at 5:13 pm
    Greenland ice core shows Arctic was warmer than today during the MWP.
    That Arctic warming never caused cooling in Europe.

    Er….. was not the MWP followed by the little ice age?

  108. Since CAGW has effectively been invalidated by empirical evidence by the fact there’s been no global warming trend into its 17th year (despite the most manmade CO2 being emitted in human history during that time) the CAGW grant whores have renamed their hoax to Climate Change, which is an IMPOSSIBLE “theory” to invalidate because that’s precisely what climate does; change….

    If global temperatures go up, it’s ClImate Change, if they go down, it’s Climate Change and if they’re static, that’s Climate change, too, because prior to stasis, temps were either warmer or colder…

    As this insanity continues, governments around they world continue with their various Cliamte Change rules, regulations, subsidies, mandates and taxes that make the world: less efficient, provides less energy, further impoverishes the poor, lowers standards of living, misallocates resources, destroys the industrial sectors of countries foolish enough to believe this tripe, makes what products and services remain uncompetitive and runs up debt and money printing to pay for it all.

    Future generations will look back at this era as a time when the world collectively lost its mind and will be flabbergasted how it lasted…

    It feels like this hoax is losing momentum, but it’s like a zombie that’s dead, yet continues to terrorize the neighborhood…

  109. P Solar,

    I cannot sit back an allow this nonsense to be spouted about Thatcher. Since the mods allowed this comment, off topic as it is, I feel I have the right to respond.

    You write “She sold off all our national assets to foreign investors.”

    No she didn’t. She sold them to the British people, at a discount. The government made an effort to prevent falling into foreign ownership by retaining a “golden share” which effectively meant veto right. Unfortunately, some of these golden shares were sold by later governments, and finally ruled illegal by the EU in 2003.

    Manufacturing output actually fell from 25% to 23% of gdp during Thatchers term – much less than people think. It subsequently fell to 11%, mostly under Blair’s watcher.

    You then write “The deregulation of the banks resulted in the current mess where we just about doubled our national debt in ONE year with bank bail outs.”

    The deregulation was known as the “big bang” and was sorely needed. At the time the financial centre was an archaic system, with brokers forced to go through “jobbers” to process transactions, while itself being almost a closed shop. Without dwelling on detail, it was a backwater in world finance that had changed little since the 19th century. What Thatcher did was throw it open to international competition, and it was a great success.

    You interpret this as the cause of the recent financial crisis, but this is a grave misunderstanding. It was not “free” markets that caused the crisis. Free markets do not have governments and central banks inflating asset bubbles, underwriting financial institutions with guarantees of taxpayers money. The roots of the crisis began under the Bush/Greenspan administration, partly by taxpayer funded mortgage guarantees and the bottom put under the stock market, known as the Greenspan put. The removal of moral hazard was one of the things that lead to excessive risk taking, and the eventually banking crisis.

    If you know anything about Thatcher, you would know she was a follower of the Austrian school of economics, which abhors the kind of central bank interventions seen over the last decade, as being highly distortive of free market functioning. Thatcher thought so too.

  110. AlecM says: April 12, 2013 at 3:45 pm

    The root cause of this humongous mistake has been ‘back radiation’…

    LevelGaze says: April 12, 2013 at 8:31 pm

    … I unreservedly side with you…

    Me too. I checked out the mathematical equations used by IPCC for the radiative flux and realized that the IPCC equations were totally flawed and postulated an “atmosphere-less” temperature for Earth that was far too high. “33 degrees useful warming due to GHG” is transparent rubbish. I realized that evidence for this mistake was staring us in the face, both from temperatures at high altitudes on Earth and from temperatures on the Moon’s surface. Why in Heaven’s name had others not spotted this and spoken up?

    That was one bridge too far for most at WUWT. Then I went even further, in connecting this mistake with another mistake made by a scientist for whom I have otherwise huge respect both as a scientist and as a man… James Clerk Maxwell.

    After realizing all that, and even writing it up nice and clearly here for people to understand, I stood back from Science. It was too big a burden for me to carry alone even though I know that the science I found is correct… and that Graeff deserves the Nobel Prize for his almost-completely-unknown work…

    All this “discovery” awaits a younger generation.

  111. “Met Office chief scientist Julia Slingo said climate change was “loading the dice” towards freezing, drier weather — and called publicly for the first time for an urgent investigation.”

    Translation:
    Send more money now, we need a bigger computer as well. ;)

    What we really need is for Julia Sligbat to be urgently fired from her job.

  112. Met Office chief scientist Julia Slingo said climate change was “loading the dice” towards freezing, drier weather — and called publicly for the first time for an urgent investigation.

    Prof Slingo said: “If you look at the way our weather patterns have behaved over the past four or five years, we’re beginning to think that there is something happening.

    ===========================================================================

    Snowless winters forecast for Wales as world warms up
    30 Jun 2007 By Darren Devine

    Former head of the Met Office Sir John Houghton, who is one of the UK’s leading authorities on climate change, said all the indicators suggest snowy winters will become increasingly rare.

    He said, “Snowlines are going up in altitude all over the world. The idea that we will get less snow is absolutely in line with what we expect from global warming.”

    Piers Corbyn, director of London-based forecasters WeatherAction, said the idea that snowfall would drop in Wales by 80% was “complete nonsense”.

    He said that although between 1910 and 1998 global temperatures were rising, they had fallen for the last nine years.

    “It’s complete nonsense and is not based on any scientific method or evidence. Since 1998 world temperatures have gone down and WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE while carbon dioxide release has been accelerating during that period.”
    SEEMS PIERS CORBYN GOT IT RIGHT IN 2007.

    http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/snowless-winters-forecast-wales-world-2247457

  113. Anthony, who complains of being harshly treated by his critics has a “moderation” policy that allows these through:

    Seriously how often must a public sector employee fail in their job before being penalised?

    And no one is firing these idiots, or laughing them off the planet.

    Screw it. I give up. I’m old enough that I won’t see the worst results of their insanity anyway. Let ‘em drag the human race back into the Stone Age, and then extinction.

    This is just speculation from somebody with a credibility of zero

    Time to go Mrs. Slingo – your flatulent rambling; incoherent oratory, schoolgirl-like dire excuses, pseudo science and boneheaded adherence to a political fiction [CAGW] are becoming a tad tiresome, just bu88er off to somewhere where your bogus delphic climate divinations can inflict less damage to the British economy and what remains of our industrial base.

    Maybe she’s just angling for an even-bigger computer.

    Is her bonus linked to her BS quotient?

    Julia Slingo knows that Tarot cards are much better than science. Why use science when it does not give you the answer you want. Why do a real PhD when the university will just give you an honorary one anyway.

    the results of zombies like this dead beat speak for themselves.

    My god; and this halfwit is their senior scientist. No wonder they are such a shambles. For crying out loud someone close that b”é””dy nest of vipers.

    What the hell wouldn’t be the fault of global warming in the eyes of these fruit loops?

    We should nickname Julia the ‘Red Queen’.

    The world over, we need dedication to the truth and the presentation of evidence, not starlets waving a graph they just made up.

    170,000 pounds per year + provision for retirement in keeping with the manner of her professional life + general overhead for her supercomputer, + secretaries, + personal travel to Bali, + a team of statisticians who really, really know how to run Excel and understand the word ‘significant’. This climate change parasite is costing the saps in the UK millions…and her only achievement is the death of a few thousand saps a year who cannot afford to heat their homes properly. But that is better than the alternative – no free money and conferences in warm places for Julia.

    Slingo called for an urgent investigation. I think we know who should be investigated.

    She she be now known as JuLiar Slingo from now on, the utter crap she spews is sickening.

    So, despite being utterly incompetent and irresponsible, her job is safe.

    Could you be any more illogical or unscientific ?

    What does a “chief scientist” get a 30k bonus for? Showing up on time, counting on both hands? Perhaps it is based on some Wall Streetesque logarithm of performance based on how many suckers you can bamboozle.

    There is so much money involved in this scam that Im very doubtful that the North Pole information is even true.. Their little playground where the only witnesses are the Inuit (promised huge sums of money to help them deal with the warming)..

    BTW, she also was instrumental in starting the CO2 scam as one of her top ministers: Leon Britten stated in the “The Great Global Warming Swindle” . She opened the Met Office Hadley Climate Research Centre, where the above mentioned Ms Sling-ya-hook is currently chief climate propagandist.

    She’s a twit.

    Julia…what a muppet.

    its just that I sweat heaps when I lie.”

    Soon to be former Met Office chief scientist Julia Slingo says: “I look forward to my forced retirement when UKIP is elected, as it will free up my days to research the most optimal placement for tinfoil around my cranium.”

    Yes indeed Julia, your life will be well spent on that pursuit. Carry on…

    Go now, Julia. (That’s two Julia’s who should go now)

    The more I see people like Slingo blame everything on Global Warming the more I am convinced that there is some sort of mental illness at play, or ar least some sort of phobia.

    Is it possible to sell your soul more than once, or is there a limit ?
    So all we can do is point and laugh at the sheer stupidity..

    Do people like her know just how silly they look?

    Julia is the worst kind of denier – she is steeped in self-denial and is likely the only person left with an interest in climate who doesn’t think she’s profoundly incompetent.

    I always thought failure was a requirement for job retention. Apparently they think so too.

    That’s why I label people like Slingo, Mann, and other “climate scientists” Catastrophic Anthropogenic Genocidal Warmistas.

    It looks to me like Sligo is suggesting that somebody else should be doing her job.

    One wonders if people like Julia realize the harm that she is causing to real science. She worries about a warming world when she should be much more concerned about her destructiion of science.

    Feeding the public silly unscientific theories that have no empircial basis should be anathema to a true scientist.

    Are these people for real, just desperate, or delusional?

    Slingo must be fired without a pension for all the damage she has done to the UK and world.

    They then give themselves Nobel prizes for being very good a cheating.

    Idiot!

    What a silly woman.

    Slingo need to invest in an Ouija board.

    What we really need is for Julia Sligbat to be urgently fired from her job.

  114. Off topic?

    Rubbish. How can commenting on the comments made and addressing the topic be off topic?

    And yet Anthony has the gall to say he doesn’t censor comments. A lie.

    [you stated that the position of this weblog was anti women, you based this on the comments of some posters here . . you have listed these comments without attribution in another comment . . I used OT in the hopes that you would moderate yourself and reduce your hyperbole regarding the whole blog . . why not do so instead of simply trying to smear the blog and Anthony? . . I have no intention to get into a debate with you, however saying Anthony has a censorship policy is incorrect however insulting all of the participants is unacceptable . . mod]

  115. pottereaton says:
    April 12, 2013 at 10:19 pm
    ………………..
    Has any peer-reviewed paper been written yet that persuasively argues that warming in the Arctic causes cooling in Western Europe? There may be, but I am not aware of it.

    I think that paper is here.

    Another theory is here

    I do wonder what caused the past severe winters such as those of 1946–1947 and 1962–1963 when co2 was at the ‘safe’ limit? The UK winter of 1979 was also another bad one when Arctic seas ice extent was at its record level on the satellite record. WUWT?

  116. Vince Causey says:
    April 13, 2013 at 2:24 am (Edit)

    I know it is fashionable to blame everything on GW Bush but I am afraid I have to disagree with you here. The deregulation of the banks, particularly with regard to mortgages was the brain child of W J Clinton. It was a scheme that would drive ever expanding economic activity using home equity. Blair and many others adopted the model and G W Bush certainly saw no problem with it. But problems there were and so 2008 happened.

    The Bunker Hunt twins encountered the same problem while trying to corner the silver market. Eventually it costs more and more to get less and less. With the Bunker Hunts it was money for silver, with WJ Clinton and his acolytes and successors it was more and more risk for reducing returns. The rest, as they say, is history.

  117. John Parsons says:

    April 12, 2013 at 5:57 pm

    I think this post has not only broken a record for most ad Hominim attacks per hour, but also the record for highest ratio of ad Hom’s to scientific information.

    John, it is frustration, we have a woman in charge of the Met Office gatting paid over £270,000 to do the job badly. Incompetence is not a strong enough term to describe all these freeloading warmists, who attribute warmth, cold, drought, floods to global warming. I am paying £1.38 a litre for unleaded, my energy bills for heating our home, have gone through the roof (forgive the pun) but we are lucky, because we have not died due to fuel poverty as many others have. I am paying a fortune to fly anywhere and we are threatened with power cuts, because our wonderful EU has told us that all fossil fuels have to be taxed and unreliable “green” energy is to be subsidised.

    The science of AGW is not ony woeful, it cannot be debated because it’s proponents resort to insults and tell us it is settled, when it clearly isn’t. Even the basic science to combat it’s alleged effects is dodgy. telling us that electric cars are clean? What is clean about using a vehicle that takes electricity from the mains to charge the vehicle using a power source which is 97% fossil fuel based. Energy from chemical to heat to motion to electric to chemical to electric to motion. A petrol car uses chemical to heat to motion. A lot fewer stages of energy loss than for the green vehicle.

    Where is the logic in shutting down a coal power station that provdes 10% of our electricity to turn it green by taking tons of wood, turning into sawdust, moulding it into pellets, transporting it to cargo ships and then sailing it across the Atlantic to be transported overland to be burned, to produce less power?
    Wind turbines need to be in remote areas so roads have to be built to erect them and they each require 800 cubic metres of concrete to stop them toppling over. They only work wind the wind is blowing, but not too fast! The CO2 released in the building, erection and maintenance of these monstrosoties is not factored into the CO2 saved?
    I am heartily sick of the whole scam, the idiots who perpetuate it and the politicians wno tax us because of it!

  118. You did not allow my comment but allowed all those, which provide strong evidence of my assertion. Are you seriously going to claim that isn’t censorship? And how are those comments relevant to the scientific topic?

    I don’t want or need to debate you. You are wrong.

  119. The MET’s failings . which have lead to them longer making long or mid term forcasts public , can be laid at Slingo’s door. Addictited to fixed view point over AGW they proved unable to allow the date to speak for its self in the way real sceincetists should .

  120. Yes but this is about her solution to the mystery, have the government fork over huge piles of cash to her office to line the pockets of scientists that believe in CAGW to explain it with poor science hidden from auditing.

  121. Last gasp extremist nonsense attempt at talking up the effects of co2 from a woman who knows her days in her overpaid job are numbered as the sun shows every sign of going into a minimum of some sort.

    Met Office chief scientist Julia Slingo said climate change was “loading the dice” towards freezing, drier weather — and called publicly for the first time for an urgent investigation.

    She pronounces this despite the fact that no climate change model, ie co2 based model predicted the current 16 year temperature standstill, and certainly none predict a decrease in temperatures which is looking ever more likely.

    The Met Office projection for the next few years is a decline in temperatures, based on a model which includes a greater proportion of solar effects and less co2, yet despite this Slingo refuses to acknowledge the solar aspect and sticks to her religious global warming co2 mantra.

    Slingo is here attempting to mislead the general public by incorrectly attributing the expected trend towards colder European temperatures by blaming it on climate change (global warming) and hence co2 increase when in fact even her own scientists now attribute this to the apparent decline in solar activity / magnetism.

    She should follow Hanson’s example and go now.

  122. Paul Homewood should clearly give up these pieces as he is being misleading as no one at the Met Office is responsible like evah! Clearly the good people at the Met Office are not to blame and as a probalistic forecast is probably wrong.

    Clearly if the tax payers of the UK were milked a little more vigorously then the Met Office would have a new improved computer thingy which they can get wrong answers much quicker. l

    That Paul Homewood is trying to deny extra level special funding for the Met Office is not important. What is important is that Paul Homewood would deny them a new computer which will work out their World Leading Wrong Solutions much faster (and need further upgrades, or so the salivating IT guy told me) as well as telling us it`s worse than we thought

    Can we afford to take such a risk when Computer says No?

    /sarc

  123. Going to the site and reading the article it says:

    Met Office chief scientist Julia Slingo said climate change was “loading the dice” towards freezing, drier weather — and called publicly for the first time for an urgent investigation.

    The only part in quotation there is the “loading the dice”. Looks like a case of her being verbaled.

    And, if you look at actual quotes attributed to her…

    “If you look at the way our weather patterns have behaved over the past four or five years, we’re beginning to think that there is something happening.”

    “Our climate is being disrupted by the warming of the Arctic that we have observed very dramatically since 2007.”

    “We should pull together the best scientists to see how we can detect the influence of the Arctic on the jet stream, and on weather around the world.”

    …it’s clear she appears not even to have mentioned global warming or making statements of panic. Her comments seem very measured. Something happening…worth investigating. Goodness gracious, how outlandish of her!

    Hardly worthy of the vitriolic, hate-filled and abusive attacks made on her here.

    She is owed an apology.

  124. TheInquirer, I, and the rest of the British public are owed an apology for all the money that has been conned out of us in taxes, to pay to fill the troughs of the warmists, who still are not being honest with us and treat us as if we are stupid!

  125. TheInquirer:

    I am writing to ask a sincere and genuine question.

    Are you in any way related to, associated with, or known to Ms Slingo and/or UK Met Office?

    The reason I ask is because I am at a loss to understand why you choose to defend that which needs to be attacked.

    People have died as a result of policies promoted by Ms Slingo and UK Met Office.
    UK energy policy is severely distorted with resulting costs imposed on British Subjects. And those distortions threaten failure of energy supply – especially adequate electricity generation – for the UK.

    Those policies are based on demonstrable falsehoods which are proclaimed by Ms Slingo and UK Met Office.

    From behind the shield of anonymity, you are complaining at expressions of contempt, disdain and dislike of Ms Slingo and UK Met Office.
    Why?

    Richard

  126. LevelGaze (April 12, 2013 at 8:31 pm)

    I’m surprised to see only one other post calling you out on this. You may well be right about back radiation (I can’t say) but your supporting argument is a howler:

    Jupiter is farther away than Saturn, obviously…So: in spite of being much closer to the Sun, and being blessed with a greenhouse gas rich atmosphere, Titan is if anything marginally colder than Ganymede.
    Oops, embarrassing.

    Indeed. (My emphasis).

  127. @ TheInquirer.

    Slingo talks of climate change. This phrase was brought into being by the Met Office as a replacement for the phrase ‘global warming’.

    When used by the Met Office and other co2 protagonists, ‘global warming’ and ‘climate change’ are one and the same.

    By the way, it would appear that there aren’t many German Scientists who agree with the view that a warmer Arctic causes a colder European winter.

    http://notrickszone.com/2013/04/12/hans-von-storch-fact-that-the-explanation-came-afterwards-is-just-more-reason-for-doubt/

    No defence of Slingo is possible. She should ‘sling her hook’ or go find a broom stick and see if she can make that fly, as that would need the same sort of magic that it would take for a warmer Arctic to produce a colder, drier, snowier Europe.

    And yes there is something happening, the Sun is entering an unusual state never before witnessed by modern science and one not seen since the 1800s and perhaps even going back to the 1600s.

  128. We really do need an urgent investigation into how these people still have a job given their near zero accuracy work. The real problem is their work is only peer reviewed but it really needs to have to be tested against a wider information base. The works of literature of the earlier periods tell us this era is no different to many before the industrial revolution and also engineers trained in pattern recognition have always maintained that Fourier analysis shows no significant deviation of the basic structure of the temperature signature. The met office and UEA do not seem also to have to justify the fact their theories violate the principles of thermodynamics with large deviations over a small area being caused by small ones that are global. We still do not get mainstream coverage that the science is so flaky it has been proven it needed to corrupt the BBC to present it as credible.

  129. The decline in Arctic ice extent did not start in any significant way until about 1980. UK winters started to get colder about 2007 , some 27 years later . The winters actually warmed from 1980 to about 2007 . There were at least 10 comparable cold periods before 1980 similar to the recent 5 cold winters that Prof. Slingo claims are due to lack of Arctic Ice . The logic just is not there. They are falsely trying every conceivable way to tie all weather events back to global warming and the logic is now approaching the ridiculous level especially coming from a chief climate advisor . The people of Uk deserve better .

  130. @ TheInquirer
    you missed the other relevent part of my post
    “Old people are dying in these cold winter spells, has she no shame”
    As has been pointed out how can the summer melt of the Arctic influence the winters in the UK.
    In winter the ice grows back to its extended range ,there is no lack of sea ice area in winter!!
    you sure you still want to call her a scientist??

  131. Keitho,

    “The deregulation of the banks, particularly with regard to mortgages was the brain child of W J Clinton.”

    Good point. I left Clinton out lest it seems like I am writing from a partisan bias.

  132. Dear Mr Homewood great article as I was typing one of the auto suggests for your name was homework which of course you clearly have done:-)
    The MET office is institutionally alarmist and not fit for purpose and their Chief Scientific Officer should sling her hook.

  133. If you look at the DEC/JAN/ FEB/MARCH Arctic ice extent http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/ you will note that the latest 2012/2013, the Arctic ice extent is up where it was about 9 years ago. Look at all the charts . Yet the winter/ spring in UK was much colder .The colder weather was due to a combination of sudden warming of the stratosphere [ SSW], a steady negative AO and some blocking of the jet stream . Nothing to do with global warming. The long term cooling will be due to cooling global SST and low solar activity which affects our oceans and then our oceans in lagged timing affect our atmosphere.

  134. Some of the commenters here have said things like “why doesn’t someone bring these people to task?” or “how long are they going to get away with their lies before something is done?”. Well I recently found out about this English law, and if some of the more knowledgable people who frequent this site got together and compiled real evidence for their case, then they could make a formal complaint to the police. The law applies to public servants and can be read here – http://www.cps.gov.uk/legal/l_to_o/misconduct_in_public_office/

    I would think “misconduct” could be proved against some of those promoting warmist/ climate change propaganda (CG1, CG2?). Public servants seem to have this attitude that they are personally untouchable, and even if an action was unsuccessful it would certainly give them a scare.

    I am at present preparing evidence for such an action against local government officers who knew that someone had supplied them with false information (which carried a crminal penalty) but ignored this and carried on processing as though nothing was wrong. A separate complaint is being submitted against the actual wrongdoer. It is actually a politician who is submitting these formal complaints, so they are not all bad people!

    Take note of that website and publicise it when appropriate. Don’t let public servants treat us with contempt!

  135. Lucy Skywalker,

    “… and that Graeff deserves the Nobel Prize for his almost-completely-unknown work… ”

    Graeff’s results are intriguing, although temperature differences were pretty small. This would be directly due to the small magnitude of Earth’s gravity.

    It got me thinking to a way of getting larger temperature gradientss – higher gravity. According to Einsteins GR, the effects of gravity and acceleration are interchangeable – it would be impossible to carry out any experiment that would give different results for physical laws in an accelerating system as opposed to in a gravitational field.

    Therefore, why not put the apparatus in a low speed centrifuge, something that would generate maybe 20 to 50g. If the effect is real, relativity predicts that the temperature gradient would still be observed, and, thanks to the higher g values, much larger and easier to measure.

  136. “Inquirer” is right. Senility seems to be setting in, for which she can’t be blamed. Honestly, can one get any less scientific in saying “something is happening”?

  137. Vince Causey says: April 13, 2013 at 7:43 am
    …why not put the apparatus in a low speed centrifuge…

    If you are really interested, you need to contact Graeff or at least read up my articles at Tallbloke’s blog. I’ve directed you to the last instalment which is the only one with back links to all instalments.

    Short answer is, the Ranque-Hilsch vortex tube makes use of Graeff’s principle applied to rotation quite usably, but not at all measurably. Graeff’s experiments measure very tiny quantities that only become clearly visible above “noise” by using longterm static experiments and very nifty statistics. He’s a lifetime engineer and knows how to milk evidence for what it’s worth, and design appropriate experiments on a shoestring. Introducing movement is a whole new ballgame of difficulties. That doesn’t mean he is blind to this dimension. Indeed, a Chinese professor tried to validate Graeff’s theory this way… but forgot some serious practical difficulties I forget what exactly.

  138. As one ages, one becomes more sensitive to cold. As I have aged, I find that warmer clothing just suits me better. It appears Ms. Slingo may be aging as well, and rather than attribute feeling chilled to her age, she has determined instead that it is climate. As a warmists, she must somehow reconcile this feeling of chill with her warmist convictions.
    This is the type of myopia that afflicts many people. They remember that 40 years ago, it was not cold enough or hot enough to bother them much, but now it is, so the climate must have changed. And on this misperception, they advocate we return to the stone age.

  139. She ain’t getting an apology from me for calling her a climate science whore, because that’s what she is. She makes the choice.

    To help TheInquirer with his most recent comment, I too also noticed the lack of any reference to “anthropogenic” and/or “CO2″ (did I miss it?). Perhaps their lawyers have weighed in on this so they will have an out and be able to say they were talking about natural climate change. The difference between readers of this blog and the general taxpaying dupes, is that we understand the subtleties of this Goebbels-speak.

  140. Surely this idea is easily falsifiable by superimposing a chart of Feb/Mar temperatures with a chart of Arctic ice extent. Is there any correlation? I doubt it.

    And what of the winters of ’62 and ’63, which were the coldest Feb/Mar periods this century. Did they have low Arctic ice levels??

    Talk about grasping at straws. The Met Office would do better if they ditched their new supercomputer** and bought a few fronds of seaweed.

    .

    ** This supercomputer was bought with Global Warming Scam funds. You see – fraud does pay, when you are in government departments……

    .

  141. Prof Slingo said:”……. we’re beginning to think that there is something happening.

    “Our climate is being disrupted ……….

    “We should pull together the best scientists to see how we can detect the influence of the Arctic on the jet stream, and on weather around the world.”

    This looks like another scientific study with predetemined conclusions . This is wrong

    I think if Prof. Slingo were to say instead and these are my words, she might get some support.
    ” We have detected that the global climate is not behaving as we predicted for the last 10 years and is actaully cooling. As a result, serious harm is being caused to the general public ., We should pull together all scientists with key climate knowlege and review the wrong scientific assumptions that were made about global warming and its causes and predict more realistically future global climate not what it might be at the end of next century but during the next decade so as to be helpful to our fellow citizens in the immediate future .

  142. Uh, LevelGaze –
    Saturn and Titan are twice as far from the Sun as Jupiter and Ganymede, not closer. This would seem to contradict your statements here.

  143. TheInquirer says:

    April 13, 2013 at 4:44 am

    I think everyone has answered your comment but just so I can feel so much better, don’t be so stupid. A scientist says ‘something is happening’. WUWT ? The arctic is melting ‘ where , Has she looked at the data recently or in the past. Thearctic freezes over in winter, evry winter since god knows when. With reports of huge amounts of lost ice in the ’30, ’40s did we have 4 bitter / record winters in 5 NO!!! idiot. Like her you have lost the ability to reason.

    Tha’s better. I feel alright now. I can remove the straightjacket.

  144. I think most commenters here have missed the point behind Slingo’s remarks. She is simply banging the drum. She really doesn’t care one jot about being shown to be inaccurate, or inconsistent, or any of the other criticisms levelled at her. She really doesn’t give a damn. That’s not what she’s there for. She is pulling an obscene amount of money to spout. That’s all. Spout. Doesn’t matter what she spouts. She is The Head Weather Person, and therefore her words carry an almost ex cathedra-like weight. Don’t forget we are still very much a feudal society here, and authority figures are granted a truly disturbing amount of deference for their utterances, howsoever inane. And she knows this, and those who put her there know this.

    She couldn’t give a stuff about how other people’s lives are ruined by the onerous charges placed upon them as a direct consequence of the guff she spouts. She’s well off, and will stay that way as long as she does as she is told. So she does. Credibility is for little people.

    That’s all.

  145. All GCMs project decreases of sea level pressure for the twenty-first century over essentially the entire Arctic, attributing very negative Arctic Oscillator conditions to reductions in ice extent is in full contradiction of that.
    It is not hard to see that daily UK temperatures:

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html

    and the jet latitude:

    http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/nhemjet_archloop.html

    change *before* ice extent does, like the late March 2010 increase in ice extent and the earlier (~7days) increase in UK temperatures.

    or the drop in ice extent in April 2008, that’s about a week after UK temperatures dropped.
    The warming from mid Feb 2010 UK+Europe is again ahead of the ice extent recovery.

  146. Ulric Lyons says:
    April 13, 2013 at 12:47 pm
    Typo.. The warming from mid Feb *2012* UK+Europe is again ahead of the ice extent recovery.

  147. Uric Lyons

    Your comments could be right and interesting. It is my belief that regardless of who makes these misleading comments about what is behind our current climate , it is important that these questionable comments should be challenged each and every time that they are spoken by these individuals , other wise if they remain unchallenged, they may be perceived as the truth. I think it was Confucius who said that a lie told a thousand times can become the truth soon. There are people who read this blog who will soon realize, that if they accept these untruths and do nothing about them, they have no one to blame but themselves for not speaking up when the debate was taking place. As more and more people in UK speak up, change will happen sooner or later.

  148. Mrs Thatcher closed coal mines because they were draining the country and producing poor quality coal – the same reasons given by the previous Labour government for closing some 300 coal mines. There is a lot of hypocracy around.

  149. If lack of arctic ice caused the cold, then, as the arctic ice reformed during the winter, the effect would weaken. In actual fact, the winter got worse as the ice reformed.

    Of course, Julia Slingo can just make up some new excuse. In a way it is like being hauled before the headmaster, and asked to come up with explanation for being somewhere you were not suppose to be. (In my own case I was suppose to explain why, when I was suppose to walk from an all-boy school to a store to buy pens and paper, I was seen far from my official route, at an all-girl school.)

    It is amazing the bull the mind can come up with, in the stress of such situations.

    (In my own case the headmaster knew what I was up to, however I assumed he was a complete fool. I cringe slightly, thinking how stupid I must have looked, avoiding truth and instead coming up with the most ingenious reasons for “just happening” to be passing the all-girl school.)

    In the same way, Julia will someday cringe. However right now she assumes we are complete fools.

  150. Margaret Smith:

    Your post at April 13, 2013 at 4:54 pm says

    Mrs Thatcher closed coal mines because they were draining the country and producing poor quality coal – the same reasons given by the previous Labour government for closing some 300 coal mines. There is a lot of hypocracy around.”
    That is plain wrong in each of its assertions.

    The progressive closure of coal mines by successive governments – both Conservative and Labour – following the Second World War was a process of streamlining, modernisation and mechanisation of the UK coal industry. The closure of the UK coal industry by the Thatcher government was part of the switch from “production” to “service” industries which also closed other industries (i.e. steel, shipbuilding, etc.).

    For the facts of the closure of the UK coal industry please see my post at

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/04/13/weekend-open-thread-6/#comment-1274534

    Richard

  151. Pål Brekke says:
    April 12, 2013 at 12:15 pm

    So aks them what caused the cold winters in the 60s and 80s???
    ——————–
    That was when the weather was normal, now it is not normal. You see, CO2 goes into the atmosphere and really messes the weather up. In the 60’s and 80’s there wasn’t much CO2 about so that weather was normal. Now there is a lot of CO2 up there it not normal so it is global warming what else could it be ?

    Got it ?

    /sarc

  152. Just a thought here – on BBC’s propoganda show,Countryfile, they are now comparing temperatures only back as far as 1910….. The meteoroligist in the Telegraph, Philip Eden, questioned this with the Met. Their response was that this is only for public consumption. The Met itself uses longer term figures! As the Scots say: Ay! Right!

  153. It is said that public servants rise to their level of incompetence … Slingo has been quite successful in that regard. I can only assume that, like our Flannery clown here in Australia, the UK government needed a climate clown to do its bidding take the fall when the music stops.

  154. Caleb says:
    “In actual fact, the winter got worse as the ice reformed.”

    I don’t think so, the most obvious recovery is at the end of Feb into early March, that was a warmer period in the UK. The ice reduces again slightly in the colder part of March, than recovers as it warmed early April. If March had been much warmer, the ice extent would up where it was in March 2012.

    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/klibild?WMO=03522&ZEITRAUM=08&ZEIT=13042013&ART=MAX&LANG=en&1365939478&ZUGRIFF=NORMAL&MD5=

  155. Wow! I didn’t think this cross post would attract such attention.I wrote to Paul after I did some number crunching on Excel with the CET figures, he kindly credits me on his original post. It showed just how ordinary our recent 4 years of winter was, yet Slingo seems to be panicking. It really annoys me when we get the wrong information, or rather information skewed one way or another.We get the headlines that say coldest March since whenever but again look at CET and there were plenty of colder temperatures for March than our recent UK temperature.

  156. Prof Slingo and some bloggers here seem to be implying that there is something wrong with the UK weather with last 5 -6 colder winters . The only thing that seems wrong is the MetOffice predictions for warmer winters and the CRU forecast of disappearing snow. There were similar multi year cold spells around 1917, 1929,1940,1947, 1963, 1979, just to name a few The Met office own graphs show the mean winter temperature to be mostly below the 1981-2010 averages from 1927 to 1987. Uk got spoiled by the warm spell between 1987 and 2007 which happened previously around 1910-1930

    So it is quite normal for UK to have cold winters at least half the time and sometime even longer . Prior to about 1860, the winters were cold for at least a hundred years in a row. The cold winters are returning because, the solar cycle has been declining since 2000, the global oceans SST is declining, .Arctic Oscillation is mostly negative, there are more frequent SSW events and the jet stream pattern is changing. We are experiencing the pattern of 1880-1910 when we had similar situation with three low solar cycles and cooling oceans. That is why many of the winter records of this year are comparable to those about a100 years ago. The future trend of UK winters will most likely be cooler winters like the pattern of 1880-1910. It does not mean that every winter will be cold but the overall trend is more likely to be cooler than warmer

  157. herkimer

    I am regularly forecasting these deviations in land temperatures and jet stream position from solar factors, at very long range. So it seemed sensible to me that ice extent would be altered *after* the short term solar impact on the AO/NAO and jet stream position.

  158. I think many of you haven’t thought this through. Slingo should have her employment renewed for 5 years, and her bonus doubled. It will take many more idiotic comments like hers, to bring the religion of AGW to its knees and ultimate death. We need more like Slingo, shovel in hand, to dig this grave, and finally bury the ACG monster. She’s her own worst enemy.

    It’s hard to be patient, but science and mother nature are quickly debunking the theory of AGW, and we will once again call “climate change” just “weather”. Science will always triumph over speculation and conjecture.

  159. The attched statistics below might put the Uk winters in a clearer perspective.
    During the last two decades 1990-2010 there were only 6 winters[30%] below the 1981-2010 average winter temperature of 3.8 C for all areas of UK . During the 100 year period 1910-2013 there were 58 winters . [58 % ] During the last cold spell period of 1962-1987, a period of 26 years ,there were 19 winters [73%] So typically colder winters are part of the UK climate not just global warming . There have been 41 winters since 1910 colder than the 3.31 C the average temperature the last 2012/2013 winter in UK

    So when Prof Slingo says “If you look at the way our weather patterns have behaved over the past four or five years, we’re beginning to think that there is something happening. ” the something that she refers to is more correctly in my opinion a return to Uk typical winter flucuations and not the global warming winters that she perhaps predicts .These colder winter periods 1880-1910, 1962-1987 and again post 2007 happen when solar cycles are low , global SST are declining , AO is mostly negative and there are fewer strong climate altering El NINOS. These are further supplemented by volcanic eruptions ,sudden stratospheric warming, jet stream changesdipping further south and blocking, all of which can lower the winter temperaures further regionally when they occur

  160. The general public here in the UK mostly has sufficient common sense to shrug their shoulders at the nonsense spouted by the Met Office. But our politicians these days are sadly deficient in that quality – and many of them on the make from green policies.

    This is why it is so important to expose the lies and obfuscations from the likes of Sligo: politicians in need of taxes and climatologists in need of grants form an impenetrable loop

  161. It seems to me that Scientist are graying the edges of research/facts to borrow from religion and ask us to trust their conclusions based on faith. Science is not hit or miss and so far, global warming theorist devise a reason to solve mysteries like exceptionally cold winters vs explaining them with fact. So, until they have their facts straight, I’ll just shrug it off as a green machine gone wild.

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