Guest post by David Archibald
Solar Cycle 24 has already seen five consecutive colder winters. This is a link to a post about a German meteorologist who has seen the light. Eventually people will work their way back to where all the energy comes from. The amount and type of energy coming from the Sun varies on time scales up thousands of years. Now that we are somewhere near the peak of Solar Cycle 24, let’s see how things are progressing.
Figure 1: MF, TSI, F10.7 Flux and Sunspot Number 2009 – 2013
From Dr Svalgaard’s site, this figure shows that the F10.7 flux is hovering around 100, which is the breakover point between sea level rising and sea level falling. In turn that also means it is the breakover point between the planet warming and the planet cooling. Given that activity will drop once we pass solar maximum, cooling is in train from here.
Figure 2: Heliospheric Current Sheet Tilt Angle 1976 – 2012
The heliospheric current sheet tilt angle was at 70.6° as at November 2012. Solar maximum occurs when it reaches 74° – so a little bit further to go.
Figure 3: Ap Index 1932 – 2013
The Ap Index has fallen back below the levels of previous solar minima.
Figure 4: Solar Wind Flow Pressure 1971 – 2012
The solar wind flow pressure has also seen its peak for this cycle.
Figure 5: Oulu Neutron Count 1964 – 2013
The neutron count is likely to trend sideways for another year before rising to a new peak for the instrumental record.
Figure 6: Interplanetary Magnetic Field 1968 – 2013
The Interplanetary Magnetic Field appears to have peaked for this cycle.
Figure 7: Solar Cycle 24 Sunspot Number compared to the Dalton Minimum
This chart compares the development of Solar Cycle 24 with the Dalton Minimum. The Solar Cycle 24 is tracking Solar Cycle 5 very closely.
Figure 8: Solanki Sunspot Number Reconstruction 9455 BC to 2035 AD
The data is from Solanki et al 2004 “Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years”, courtesy of David Evans. A projection to 2035 is included based on Livingstone and Penn’s estimate of an amplitude for Solar Cycle 25 of 7. The average annual sunspot number in Solanki’s reconstruction is 28.7. The average annual sunspot number for the second half of the 20th century is 72.
Figure 9: Solanki cumulative sunspot reconstruction
This graph takes the data from Figure 7 and is additive relative to the average sunspot number over the period of 28.7. It shows that solar activity trends for thousands of years at a time.
Figure 10: Steinhilber et al TSI reconstruction 7,362 BC to 2007 AD
Similarly, Steinhilber et al reconstruction TSI relative to 1,365.57 W/m2 with data courtesy of David Evans.
Figure 11: Steinhilber et al TSI reconstruction cumulative
This graph takes the data from Figure 9 and plots it cumulatively. It also shows that solar activity trends for thousands of years. The Steinhilber reconstruction does show the beginning of the Dark Ages cold period and the Little Ice Age quite accurately.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Thanks David Archibald
In the next ten years Temps are going to get real cold REAL COLD and if the next sunspot cycles are as low as 24 then we may have next ice age starting.
[snip . . the link is reporting the file doesn’t exist . . mod]
This is a daily Solar and quake report. A must watch. Check out his previous videos.
It seems to me that Figures 9 and 11 do not agree: http://www.leif.org/research/Solanki-Steinhilber-Disagree.png so perhaps one should draw hasty conclusions.
not draw hasty conclusions, of course
I would disagree with Dr. Archibald’s analyses to a degree, what matters it is the polarity of the solar magnetic cycle in relation to the Earth’s magnetic field variability.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/EarthNV.htm
Dr. Dr Svalgaard has closed a number of his presentations with “we’re in for interesting times.” Be it blessing or curse is yet to be seen.
In 2020 we will know how it all turns out.Everybody a little more patient.
OK I understand that the sun provides the energy to drive the climate system. but it appears complicated, looking above, so do we fullt understand it?
A few might but most still cling to the premis that it is all down to CO2, the sun provides but -18C (-49C if you believe the Trenberth AR4 graphic) to a flat earth. This is obviously total rubbish. Reality is far better coz its the SUN.
Finger trouble! Fully not fullt and it IS the SUN.
Sorry folks but time tells so many tales.
Looking forward to walking on the River Thames again ……. The last time was when I was 3 years old during winter of 1963 ….. Maybe when that happens again and all the daft wind turbines have frozen solid the British Government might get the picture that the climate is heading north not south .
@David A.: Solar Cycle 24 has already seen five consecutive colder winters
Colder that what?
By what measure? Give a link.
An interesting paper about regional cloud cover changes vs. solar activity by Voiculescu et al 2012:
http://cc.oulu.fi/~usoskin/personal/Voiculescu_ERL_2012.pdf
Verdict: Both CR count and UV intensity has significant effect on cloud cover over tropics. Total effect of solar minimum (higher CR count and lower UV intensity) is definitely causing cooling due to increased cloud cover.
Okay, this might be a really good time to ask “What is the Ap index?”
I know it is some derived index from magnetic fields, but could someone provide a brief, but meaningful, definition?
Thanks, in advance.
REPLY: The Ap planetary index for measuring the strength of a disturbance in the Earth’s magnetic field. The index is defined over a period of one day from a set of standard stations around the world.
vukcevic says:
February 25, 2013 at 6:30 am
what matters it is the polarity of the solar magnetic cycle in relation to the Earth’s magnetic field variability.
No, that matters not. Your ‘correlation’ is spurious.
Thanks you David, very useful compilations – much appreciate your work.
“The heliospheric current sheet tilt angle was at 70.6° as at November 2012. Solar maximum occurs when it reaches 74° – so a little bit further to go.”
Have we since hit it? http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Tilts.gif
The dark line in the above plot looks to have hit the 74 deg mark.
Politicians do not give up manipulative tools such as CAGW easily. Only when it is forced upon them. Job security is far more important than honest service, so after 15+ years of no significant heating it is time those of us who have a say, vote out ALL politicians involved in this scam to control energy and lives. I would push for prosecution of the offenders but for the feeling that most politicans are not bright enough to see the truth.
That helps! So the greater the disturbance, the greater the dip in the Ap index?
Dr. Svalgaard,
It seems you’re in disagreement wth the idea that cooling is postively correlated with solar activiity as measured by sunspots? IS that correct?
Slightly off topic.
Last night I watched the BBC programme ‘Wonders of Life’ prseneted by Professor Brian Cox (high energy particle physicist). He briefly mentioned the faint sun (ie., the sun in the early years of the formation of earth). He said that whilst the amount of photons emitted in the visible range were far less than today (I cannot recall whether he put a figure on it, he might have mentioned something like 70%), the sun was producing far more high energy photons in the UV range. He gave the impression that the sun was very active in that range, and far from the sun producing less energy, if anything it was producing more energy ( since UV photons have far more energy than IR photons).
He did not go into much detail, merely raising the point to suggest that conditions (high intensity of UV) was very inhospitable to life during the early years after earth aquired an atmosphere
I wonder whether this is fully taken account of in the so called faint sun paradox.
Stephen Rasey: see the link at the top of the post.
In relation to Figure 7
A German site “Die Kalte Sonne – The cold sun” has published a similar graph.
http://kaltesonne.de/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/frank1.gif
It compares the average of Solar Cycles 1-23 with Solar Cycle 5 and Solar Cycle 24 until January 2013.
I’ll believe were heading for a cold period when I see it. Until then, it’s just another prediction, like CAGW.
Leif, Why dont you go ahead and give a thoughtful critical analysis supporting or not the post by Archibald. That would be a lot better than you snipping at everyones comment about the post. Several things will happen if you do this. First, we can all learn more about the subjuct, two we dont have to scroll through a bunch of tripe between you and everybody else, three you make a prediction about the future and lay it all out just like Archibald thereby getting some skin in the game. If you could do this we could all benefit including you.
MC
A couple basic questions:
How do we square the record high temperatures — “hottest summer on record, etc.” — of the past decade with a cooling trend, or at least a no warming trend, over the same period?
And with the rise in Arctic temperatures and consequent loss of sea ice there?
Thanks!