From NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Facebook page, a silver lining to the heat wave/drought of 2012:
Check out these 2012 numbers from NOAA SPC, showing only 757 confirmed tornadoes as of September 21. That compares to an annual average of 1,300 tornadoes, and 1,692 that touched down last year as of late September.
SPC writes:
“After a busy start, tornado events in the U.S. in 2012 have dropped well below the expected normal. The preliminary total of 757 tornadoes is about 400 tornadoes below what might be expected in a typical year. This chart shows that in late 2011, the annual running total was over 400 tornadoes above normal. This depicts the dramatic variability that can occur in tornado numbers from one year to the next.”
I’d call this an “inconvenient truth” when compared to Al Gore’s latest pay for play bloviation:
Al Gore hopes to show links between climate change and the effects of extreme weather worldwide with an online and social media-fueled event built around the idea of “dirty weather.”
Gore’s advocacy group, the Climate Reality Project, announced Sunday that its second multimedia “24 Hours of Reality” event will occur Nov. 14-15 and bear the title “The Dirty Weather Report.”
Gore still hasn’t fessed up to the “24 hours of reality” lie he foisted on the public last year with his Climate101 video where he faked the results of a CO2 experiment in post production because it couldn’t possibly ever work on its own.
I located all the exact same props and replicated his experiment, and proved beyond the shadow of a doubt that the end result of that experiment presented to the viewer was faked.
See my findings here.
I wonder how much fakery we’ll see this year?
h/t to A. Scott for the SPC graph
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Wasn’t Algore in Antarctica at the start of this record run. They’re keeping him out of the Arctic intentionally.
Al Gore is the gift that keeps on giving. Great comedic relief in a world full of stress. Thanks big Al!
What’s up with the link to a Facebook page? It makes me cringe …
REPLY: NOAA SPC uses this as public outreach – perfectly legit. See the URL on the graph for a non FB source – Anthony
Just waiting for the oft used warmist ‘excuse’ – that it’s just been a quiet year and it’s caused by natural variation, circulation patterns etc, etc….Then, next time it’s higher again, it will be all ‘man-made’ – kinda sad that the majority of them never see the fact that the supposed anthropogenic signal (if there at all) can never really be seen above and beyond the relatively massive NATURAL variation !…….. and of course, this applies to the vast majority of climate ‘events’.
I want to see all these type of reports emphasising that basic fact but somehow they never do……..
Who is Al Gore?
That facebook page, with the image(s) carrying the stamp/imprimatur of NOAA (their ‘shield’ or emblem) as well as that of NOAA’s NWS Storm Prediction Center all denote some elevated level of authority and authenticity … is there a problem with that?
.
It’s clearly sign of AGW. Everything is.
Someone might come with theory that we’re going to face climate extremes in the form that there will either be extreme weather or extreme lack of it….
😉
A response to a Jeopardy ‘answer’ in the category of buffoons, failures or failed presidential bidders … right?
“This man –
a) fielded a failed presidential bid in 2000 and
b) went on to become a laughing-stock in the ‘weather’ and climate business for his demonstrated ability to call-up, invoke or otherwise ‘make happen’ something now referred to as “The Gore Effect *”“.
.
.
.
Anthony, I hope you don’t scare Algore away this year. Last year was sooo much fun watching you deliver the monumental smackdown to his “24 Hours of Reality”.
This years “The Dirty Weather Report” has a name already ripe for smashing story. He should dress up in a clown’s outfit with face paint and all to better identify with the audience he targets.
I beginning to believe that he may be part of a vast right wing conspiracy to discredit the CAGW movement. November seems to be a time for climate related science.
What is “…inflation adjusted annual running total”?
I have nothing against the NOAA info, it is the Facebook page I object too. I can understand why people use it but I don’t like Facebook, that’s all.
John Blake said on September 25, 2012 at 8:03 am:
The less-successful half of the pairing that made the 2000 US Presidential election an adolescent-level joke:
Which would you rather see on the world news nearly every night?
Bush or Gore?
Bonus question: Does anyone here know who was Gore’s also-ran running mate on the ticket, without looking it up?
Hey, here’s one that missed the Lewandowsky survey: The 2000 Presidential Election was stolen from Al Gore by operatives in the pay of Big Oil to keep President Gore from transitioning the US economy to clean renewable energy.
mkelly says:
September 25, 2012 at 8:36 am
What is “…inflation adjusted annual running total”?
When these annual adjusted values are plotted, we see that the linear upward trend is removed from the data. Removal of this upward trend is desirable because the increase in tornado reports over the last 54 years is almost entirely due to secular trends such as population increase, increased tornado awareness, and more robust and advanced reporting networks. By removing the upward trend and making the broad assumption that 2007 represents something closer to reality for annual tornado numbers, we can attempt to answer the question, “what constitutes a normal year with respect to modern-day tornado reports?”
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/adj.html
Ah, but Anthony, you are forgetting, if the climate system warms, it’s Climate Change, if the climate system cools, it’s Climate Change! Not forgetting the UK Wet Office’s highly detailed Climate Change effects, “some regions will experience warmer temperatures, some regions will experience cooler temperatures, some regions will have more droughts, some regions will have less droughts, some regions will have more rain, some regions will have less rain”. It truly is unbelievable that they expect anybody to believe the bovine faecal nature of the puter models! Oh & as for Wikipidea’s “unseasonable cold weather phenomena and meetings associated with global warming”. Trusty 1925 Pocket OED, phenomenon: Object of perception, observed or apparent object fact or occurrence; remarkable person or thing, a wonder. Phenomenal: cognizable by the senses, concerned with phenomena, evidenced only by the senses, out of the common, remarkable, extraordinary. No mention of anything wrong, or bad, or disastrous, or dangerous, just unusual really!
And don’t forget: Al Gore and his followers are trying to steer the course of the first upcoming US presidential candidate debate next week: “Gore’s Climate Reality Project begs Debate Moderator Jim Lehrer: Ask Romney and Obama about Climate Change” http://junkscience.com/2012/09/13/gores-climate-reality-project-begs-debate-moderator-jim-lehrer-ask-romney-and-obama-about-climate-change/
I can only understand an “inflation adjusted” value (number) ONLY if that number were for “amount of damage reported” or “value of insurance paid cases” or the like.
Even “number of deaths” or “number of injuries” HAVE to be unique with respect to inflation over time, unless somehow the NOAA are going to assume that there are more emergency responders nowadays, and so its “easier” to get medical attention today than earlier (people are more likely to go to a hospital rather than use a band aid at home or just “suck it up”?) .
But “number of tornadoes” could only be “inflation adjusted” if they are going to exclude all of the little tornadoes or aerial tornadoes (that don’t touch ground) which are in the database only by radar reflections of the “hook”.
In earlier times, if no ground damage reported, no tornado. Now, “one radar return” = “one tornado”. But is this “inflation” ?
For some reason the headline of this post made me think of Al and Tipper, when he claimed the movie “love story” was made about them.
Isn’t the ACE number down by quite a bit in recent years as well?
Kev-in-Uk says:
September 25, 2012 at 8:02 am
—
Anything that’s above normal is caused by global warming.
Anything that’s below normal is merely natural climate variation.
Heads I win, tails you lose. It’s post normal science.
John Blake says|September 25, 2012 at 8:03 am|Who is Al Gore?
Al Capone’s simple brother-in-law. Every time he tries to run a scam it seems to go hilariously wrong.
Obviously the warming is reaching all layers of the atmosphere, resulting in less variation between the layers. This reduction in energy differential is reducing the number of electric storms, tornadoes, and hurricanes along with their severity.
Philip Finck says:
September 25, 2012 at 10:10 am
Why does it say `inflation adjusted number’? Why would you adjust the number of tornadoes for inflation. I must be having a `stupid moment.”
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
My understanding is that they adjust the numbers based on a set of assumptions regarding observation effectiveness. We have more people per unit area now, and more sensing equipment, so we tend to observe tornadoes today that would have never been detected at all 50 years ago. Hence the “inflation”.
So no, you’re not having a stupid moment, but the commenter right after you appears to be afflicted with something similar or worse.
Tornadoes? Are the absent ones termed Gornadoes? Lots of them around it seems.
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
September 25, 2012 at 9:09 am
Bonus question: Does anyone here know who was Gore’s also-ran running mate on the ticket, without looking it up?
—————————–
Certainly, Joe Lieberman whom I thought would have been a better choice for the top of the Democrat ticket that year.
Slightly off topic. I just downloaded for myself a pre-publication article that discusses the potential linkage of the sun with earth warming. Here is the link
http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13519&utm_medium=etmail&utm_source=The%20National%20Academies%20Press&utm_campaign=NAP+mail+new+9.25.12&utm_content=Downloader&utm_term=
All you have to do is register for free and you can download. Enjoy.