Coldest July in history for Anchorage?

From the Alaska Dispatch and the weather is not climate unless it’s 100 degrees outside department comes this report:

Could this be the coldest July in history for Anchorage?

According to the National Weather Service, Anchorage, Alaska is experiencing record cold temperatures this month. Usually July is Anchorage’s hottest month, but it’s been warmer the last few days in Barrow, 800 miles to the north on Alaska’s Arctic coast, than it has been in the state’s largest city.

The Weather Service posted this graphic today on Facebook, along with narrative:

From the NWS Facebook page:

Who’s colder today: Anchorage or Barrow, Alaska?

By Alaska’s summer standards, it’s been cool in South-Central Alaska this month and especially this week. (By lower 48 standards, it’s flat out cold). It’s been so cool in Anchorage that for the past two days (July 11 and 12) high temperatures have been colder than Barrow, the 9th northermost city in the world, which is more than 700 miles to the north of Alaska’s largest city.

On July 11, Anchorage had a high temperature of 56º. July 12 topped out at 54º. Both days set records for the lowest maximum temperature. And for all of July thus far, no day at the Anchorage Forecast office has seen a daily high at or above the average (65-66º). [Climate log: http://bit.ly/N6aIAZ]

Moreover, July is normally the warmest month of the year on average in Anchorage. This July is the coldest on record (so far) by more than 1.5º with an average monthly temperature of 52.7º. The coolest July on record occurred in 1920 with an average monthly temperature of 54.4º.

==================================

h/t to Poptech

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68 Responses to Coldest July in history for Anchorage?

  1. AlaskaHound says:

    Indeed, we experienced snow and sleet right up to June 5th this year and the snow in the 3500′ – 6000′ range is quite delinquent along the Chugach, Alaska Range and the Wrangell mountains.
    Folks do not remember so much snow on the mountains this late in the year and since the mid-range snowpack is now heading for a second year without melting, we’ll be seeing glacier growth coming along quite nicely.
    Also, the northern hemisphere permafrost is in it’s 5th year of growth, with the depth and temperature profiles looking more and more like a coming glacial period.

  2. Tim Clark says:

    Negative PDO.

  3. lizp4 says:

    I thought they said this about LAST year’s temps, too. It’s been a few chilly summers here for a while. Yesterday in Wasilla, it was 54.

  4. Bill Hough says:

    James Taranto explains it best: “Seriously, though, when we point out cold weather to mock global warmists, we’re satirizing the sort of cherry-picking arguments that global warmists routinely put forth. When it’s hot in July, it’s global warming. When it’s cold in January, climate isn’t weather. You science-hating idiot.”

  5. Joseph Bastardi says:

    Welcome to the cold PDO get used to it. Lower 48… scarce cold next 5-7 years overall ( this winter cold, but most not too bad) then look out, the 60s and 70s return

    there is nothing new under the sun. what has come before will come again, we are in the 50s now in the period of a pdo flip to cold and though not exactly the same, similar results can be affected.

    God help us if solar cycle theories are correct

  6. Deekaman says:

    It’s weather. Nothing to see here. Why? Because they say so.

  7. Wagathon says:

    Achtung Granate

  8. Jim says:

    Not enough asphalt tarmac at Anchorage International Airport. If they expand the tarmac, I’m sure they’ll be as warm as Miami in no time.

  9. Mariana Britez says:

    dont you know its global warming hahahaha

  10. Poptech says:

    I take it Mr. Gore is informing us Mr. Watts is not reporting enough on record cold temperatures. We should oblige him.

  11. Sou says:

    Just proves what lots of your guest bloggers and commenters have been telling us. We’re heading for another ice age. None of this global warming nonsense in that part of Alaska this month.

    To be confirmed when the ratio of record highs to record lows around the world drops below one. I think it’s been on average one record low to two record highs for the past few years, but it’s bound to flip the other way any day now. Not helped by continental USA this year (we can ignore that, it’s just weather), but the UK has been a bit cool and wet the past month or so (that’s more proof that global warming is about to reverse).

  12. William Abbott says:

    I just got back from fish camp up near Dillingham on the Nushugak River. My finger tips are still numb from the cold. It was s-o-o-o cold fishing. Forties every day with wind and rain. Fishing was good but I was never warm the whole eleven day trip (except when chopping wood)

  13. SteveSadlov says:

    This is a testament to just how cold the North Pacific Cold Pool is. To be honest, even down here in the upper 30s N, and even though the ENSO meter says “El Nino” there is absolutely no hint of El Nino. We get the odd warm day but in general we continue to run normal to colder than normal. On and on it drones.

  14. It can’t be cold in Alaska right now, MSNBC reports that;

    “A massive landslide sent tons of rock and debris tumbling more than five miles down a glacier in Alaska, the National Park Service reported in an event that could be yet another sign of a warming world.”

    http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/13/12722446-5-mile-long-landslide-in-alaska-national-park-warming-eyed-as-possible-culprit

  15. Terry Jackson says:

    The Kenai has seldom been above 52, and some highs have been in the 40′s since mid May. There were a few days over 70 back in June. Mostly overcast and very cool. And there is no airport or UHI within 20 miles of me.

    The King salmon (Chinook) is the lowest ever recorded. Last year the greeting was Happy Juneuary, and it is cooler this year.

  16. Tsk Tsk says:

    Joseph Bastardi says:
    July 13, 2012 at 6:41 pm

    there is nothing new under the sun. what has come before will come again, we are in the 50s now in the period of a pdo flip to cold and though not exactly the same, similar results can be affected.

    God help us if solar cycle theories are correct
    ————————————————————————————-
    But you don’t understand. It’s different this time. We just need more government to solve our problems. “Fairness” will push back the glaciers.

  17. Richard111 says:

    Something strange going on. Last night the BBC reported birds that normally migrate in the autumn are arriving in the UK now. In mid July! The report said the birds were mainly from Iceland.
    Barrow webcam still showing a lot of sea ice with local air temp at 41F.

  18. Steven Mosher says:

    No doubt the ice will be fine then.
    sarc off

  19. pat says:

    Another sign of runaway global warming. Or as Gore would say “Runway Global Warming”.

  20. Poptech says:

    Tsk Tsk, “But you don’t understand. It’s different this time. We just need more government to solve our problems. “Fairness” will push back the glaciers.”

    ROFLMAO.

  21. Poptech says:

    Steven Mosher, “No doubt the ice will be fine then.”

    I try not to weigh in on any debate about how the ice is feeling.

  22. John F. Hultquist says:

    Sou says:
    July 13, 2012 at 8:12 pm
    Just proves what lots of your guest bloggers and commenters have been telling us. We’re heading for another ice age.

    Have I been reading some other set of guest bloggers and commenters? I thought from all the reading that Earth is in an ice age. No? Some say within this ice age there have been interglacial periods – even saying Earth is currently in such a thing. And a name: Holocene or, perhaps, MIS 1. Within this, they say, there are cool periods (see little ice age) and warm periods (see medieval warm period), and transitions.

    Joe B. @ 6:41 is, as always, a bit terse but is suggesting recent entry into a PDO induced cool period. Others, as Joe suggests, think Earth’s Sun might be involved to produce cool periods (see Maunder minimum). Still, such cooling would be within the current warm interglacial, and not a “another ice age.” (see “In defense of Milankovitch”, by Roe)

    Note in the graphic there was a “previous lowest maximum” in 1987 that was just 2 degrees higher than the current observation. If either of these events “proves” anything – what that is escapes me.

  23. Jimbo says:

    We were told that the UK was to expect a drier than normal spring. What we got was lots of rain. Now the Guardian et al are trying to explain how global warming climate change could explain the cold wet summer so far.

    The findings make it much more likely that we will soon – within the next few years – be able to discern whether the extremely wet and cold summer and spring so far experienced in the UK this year are attributable to human causes rather than luck, according to the researchers.http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/10/extreme-weather-manmade-climate-change?newsfeed=true

    By the way is the UK drought (caused by global warming) over yet? You can’t win against any religion.

  24. mosomoso says:

    Mr. Bastardi’s comment caught my eye. I’ve lived mostly on the NSW coastal strip and I have strong memories of the period from the fifties to the seventies. In spite of some very high heat around 1960, with drought and bushfire, my first decades were spent in a moist climate. The climate recalled by my parents and grandparents from their youths was very different. Australia had its own version of America’s dustbowl thirties, and, after the wet 1890s, we were in overall rainfall deficit till around the year of my birth, 1949.

    However, for much of my life, temperate eastern Oz was a pretty humid place dominated by oceanic winds. That all changed in the early eighties, and, despite some floods and sharp winters, inland westerly winds were dominant, and thunderstorms in winter did not happen. Drought and fire held sway.

    In 2007, there was an unmistakable change, and oceanic winds began to dominate again. The El Nino of ’09 had a completely different complexion to those of previous decades, we now get thunder every winter – even in droughty August – and the weather resembles more and more that of my childhood in the fifties.

    Yet this enormity is only lightly discussed. The constant moisture has been all around us for five years in my region, the change of dominant wind patterns is blatant, unmissable. This climatic shift is not the elephant in the room; it’s the elephant herd in the phone booth – yet it simply does not rate with our data-torturing climate experts. I know not to see complex things in terms of simple mechanisms – I leave that to our Green Betters – but isn’t it time for a lot more talk about PDO? Like, a LOT more talk about it?

    Anyway, Mr. Bastardi, you definitely have my attention.

  25. John F. Hultquist says:

    Terry Jackson says:
    July 13, 2012 at 9:06 pm
    The King salmon (Chinook) is the lowest ever recorded.

    See PDO. One phase (the current one) seems to coincide with increased runs from Oregon north to southern B.C. and decreases in Alaskan rivers. The other phase produces opposite results. Recent news articles chronicle this phenomenon. If you can explain why you can win a prize.

  26. Berényi Péter says:

    Don’t worry, Anchorage’s missing heat must be hiding in the pipeline. Request money to take readings there.

  27. Steve C says:

    Coldest July in Anchorage. Roasting heat in parts of the continental US and Europe. And: “Britain on course for wettest ever July as more downpours forecast”, says the Telegraph:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/9398090/Britain-on-course-for-wettest-ever-July-as-more-downpours-forecast.html
    Sounds like what Piers Corbyn was warning us about a couple of weeks ago! It should be a fun Olympic Games in London if this lot holds up. This is an ‘interesting’ summer indeed.

  28. Garry Stotel says:

    We have obviously reached a tipping point, another 5 years and it will be too late…

    I mean nobody will buy the AGW crap anymore. They need another guilt trip idea FAST!!

  29. Jeez, you’ve broken my dream.

    Last night I was dreaming it was so cold this July that snow had fallen again… crops could not grow … well the weather here in the UK has been solid rain, rain, rain, and more rain for weeks.

  30. Richard111 says:
    July 13, 2012 at 9:55 pm

    Something strange going on. Last night the BBC reported birds that normally migrate in the autumn are arriving in the UK now. In mid July! The report said the birds were mainly from Iceland.

    That’s a major wound in the side of AGW, since many greenies became warmists after seeing bird migration patterns shifting…

    … but will anyone ever ‘fess up to have been taken for a ride, or to have shouted without checking the science??

  31. Kelvin Vaughan says:

    Jimbo says:

    July 13, 2012 at 11:46 pm

    By the way is the UK drought (caused by global warming) over yet? You can’t win against any religion.

    Oficially finished last week. We can water our flooded gardens with hosepipes now!

  32. Kelvin Vaughan says:

    Lucy Skywalker says:

    July 14, 2012 at 1:55 am

    Jeez, you’ve broken my dream.

    Last night I was dreaming it was so cold this July that snow had fallen again… crops could not grow … well the weather here in the UK has been solid rain, rain, rain, and more rain for weeks.

    There was a frost in Scotland last week!

  33. Phil Govier says:

    Lucy Skywalker says:
    July 14, 2012 at 1:59 am
    Richard111 says:
    July 13, 2012 at 9:55 pm

    Something strange going on. Last night the BBC reported birds that normally migrate in the autumn are arriving in the UK now. In mid July! The report said the birds were mainly from Iceland.

    That’s a major wound in the side of AGW, since many greenies became warmists after seeing bird migration patterns shifting…

    … but will anyone ever ‘fess up to have been taken for a ride, or to have shouted without checking the science??

    Yes, this Wildfowl & Wetland Trust site (see link below) is 10 miles up the road from me on the west cost of Wales (west coast of the UK). They are reporting migratory birds arrival in numbers now in July that would normally not be seen here for another several weeks.

    http://www.wwt.org.uk/news/all-news/2012/07/news/news-llanelli/bad-weather-continues-to-affect-birds/

    “Interesting” times ahead I think….

    WelshSkeptic

  34. jono1066 says:

    Is there a wee bit of translation software out there that auto converts deg C to deg F ?

    As non scientists and non proffesionals us skeptics could baffle all the technical people in Europe and elsewhere around the world by using a wierd temperature interval to describe events.

    sarc off

  35. Rhys Jaggar says:

    ‘Jimbo says:
    July 13, 2012 at 11:46 pm
    We were told that the UK was to expect a drier than normal spring. What we got was lots of rain. Now the Guardian et al are trying to explain how global warming climate change could explain the cold wet summer so far.

    The findings make it much more likely that we will soon – within the next few years – be able to discern whether the extremely wet and cold summer and spring so far experienced in the UK this year are attributable to human causes rather than luck, according to the researchers.http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/10/extreme-weather-manmade-climate-change?newsfeed=true

    By the way is the UK drought (caused by global warming) over yet? You can’t win against any religion.’

    Jimbo – the drought was officially declared over when all the remaining water authorities lifted their hosepipe bans on 9th July. The Environment Agency has said that, short of a long, prolionged hot and dry spell for the remainder of the summer, the risk of drought returning is small.

    We have restored groundwater levels in the summer, which is apparently very unusual, save in some areas of sandstone which traditionally take much longer to replenish after rainfall, river levels are high and reservoirs mostly full. Our 12 month rainfall levels are around average, although the past 3 months have been 250% of average.

    We are officially back to normal and would appreciate some dry and sunny weather in August and September.

  36. Kelvin Vaughan says:

    Joseph Bastardi says:

    July 13, 2012 at 6:41 pm

    God help us if solar cycle theories are correct

    Dont worry we can grow tomatos faster with this equipment.

    http://www.bullybeef.co.uk/co2_control_equipment.htm

  37. Rhys Jaggar says:

    My prediction is this: sea ice around Alaska will remain high in years to come courtesy of the PDO going negative. Sea Ice around Svalbard, Western Greenland and the Northwest of Russia will remain low until 2020, when the AMO flipping will slowly see that start to increase.

    Sea ice minima will bumble along the bottom this decade and start to rise significantly in the 2020s, radically if SC25 is radically weaker than SC24 as some predict. Glaciers will continue to advance in Alaska.

    Rising CO2 levels will help equatorial forests to regrow slowly which will be either aided or prevented by the policies of ranchers, governments and corporations. Rainfall will continue to increase in the southern Sahel.

    Governments will start to consider which regions of the earth are best suited to making up any shortfalls in staple crop harvests in Canada, the Northern USA, Ukraine, Russia etc. They will be monitoring the northern extremities of the Sahara, parts of the Southern USA and Mid-West etc etc and planning for migrations southward as high latitude climates become temporarily inconsistent with sustainable agriculture.

    The world will not end, but humanity will have to adapt.

    It might be a good idea to think about how to do that rather than having intellectual wanking competitions about ‘climate change’.

  38. mwhite says:

    “Steven Mosher says:
    July 13, 2012 at 10:57 pm
    No doubt the ice will be fine then.
    sarc off”

    http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/brutal-bering-sea-ice-blocking-arctic-supply-ships

    “Brutal Bering Sea ice blocking Arctic supply ships”

  39. Eric Webb says:

    I might have to disagree a little bit with Mr.Bastardi, I think, despite the cold PDO, the next 5-7 years and their corresponding winters will still be relatively cold, at least colder than what we have experienced the last 15-20 years in warmer PDO. However, if he’s comparing the next 5-7 years to the decades that follow, I certainly agree, especially considering that we get both the PDO and AMO to cool and the solar cycles to plummet to levels similar to the Dalton and perhaps the Maunder minimum, could get very interesting. I’m fairly confident though, that we won’t see any significant warming over this time, because the large scale climate factors are pointing towards a cooling, and it has absolutely nothing to do with CO2.

  40. Michael Schaefer says:

    And while we are at it:

    Here in Germany, Central Europe, temps are 10 degrees Centigrade below average for this time of the year for the third week in a row and it’s raining cats and dogs all the time, occasionally interrupted by short, but strong thunderstorms, only.

    But, I know: Weather is not Climate, unless Al Goredom says so…

  41. mogamboguru says:

    Wagathon says:
    July 13, 2012 at 7:14 pm

    Achtung Granate
    —————————————————
    LOL!

  42. mogamboguru says:

    John F. Hultquist says:
    July 13, 2012 at 11:48 pm

    Terry Jackson says:
    July 13, 2012 at 9:06 pm
    The King salmon (Chinook) is the lowest ever recorded.

    See PDO. One phase (the current one) seems to coincide with increased runs from Oregon north to southern B.C. and decreases in Alaskan rivers. The other phase produces opposite results. Recent news articles chronicle this phenomenon. If you can explain why you can win a prize.
    ————————————————————————————————-
    Okay, here’s my application for the prize:

    a. “increased runs from Oregon north to southern B.C.” = Blocking High repositioned by southerly relocated Jetstream directs wetter-than-average winds to the coast from Oregon north to southern B.C., thus substantially increasing precipitation –

    and

    b. “decreases in Alaskan rivers” = less snowmelt over Summer due to reduced temps leaves more residual snow in the Alaskan Range, equalling a reduced water-supply for Alaskan Rivers, while the Alaskan Glaciers will grow simultaneously -

    And vice versa.

    How did I fare?

  43. Matt Skaggs says:

    The Puget Sound region has been a solid 3F below normal all spring and into the summer. We were under a cold gray trough basically the entire month of June. Our glaciers will advance for the second year in a row. They advanced last year due to a ridiculously cold spring. Artist’s Point at Mt. Baker, a big parking lot with a big view, never opened last year due to snow. This year the glaciers will continue their advance due to very high snowfall and low insolation during the longest days.

  44. Anthea Collins says:

    We are told, here in the UK, that our current unsummer weather is due to the southerly position of the jet stream. Would this be the case for other areas such as Alaska? And if so when the jet stream moves north will we be back to “global warming”?

    Anthea

  45. pinetree3 says:

    62 in Barrow. Wow. Thats unreal.

  46. phlogiston says:

    Current Arctic ice is a little paradoxical. Its thicker on the side near Greenland and east Canada where temperatures are record high, and apparently very thin on the North pacific side where temperatures are very low.

    With all the major climate datasets in the hands of AGW activists, I wonder if they will continue to report year-on-year Arctic ice decline until icebergs start showing up in Manhatten and the Thames estuary.

    News from the real world shows unusually heavy sea ice in the north Pacific:

    http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/brutal-bering-sea-ice-blocking-arctic-supply-ships
    http://iceagenow.info/2012/07/sea-ice-delays-shell-alaska-drilling/

    And disruption to bird migratory pattern in the UK which isnt due to warming

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-south-west-wales-18779775

    Again in the real world. the tongue of cool water continues to extend off the Peruvian coast westward, south of the equator, such that the Nino index supposedly rising toward el Nino has just dipped. I still think that the ENSO nonlinear oscillator is finely balanced and could tip one way or the other, and that a triple-dip La Nina is still a strong possibility.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.gif

  47. mysteryseeker says:

    We must keep in mind though all of this is very interesting. But keep in mind as one of the previous comments stressed “weather is not climate.” The fact that it is very cold in Alaska cannot be pointed to as proof of climate change in either direction. To do so is to be just as foolhardy as those saying the heat waves in much of the rest of North America is tied to global warming. And I agree the present cold phase of the PDO is likely involved in the cold Achorage temperatures. Rod Chilton.

  48. Owen says:

    Joseph Bastardi says:
    July 13, 2012 at 6:41 pm
    Welcome to the cold PDO get used to it……..God help us if solar cycle theories are correct.
    ————————————————————————
    Mr. Bastardi, With the current cold cycle of the PDO and an inactive sun, we should be returning to the ave global temperatures of the 60′s and 70′s? And the arctic sea ice will return? And the NH snow cover anomaly will recover? And Greenland land ice will stop melting? And the ocean heat content will start decreasing? And the sea level rise will level out and then decrease? Good luck with that one. When I see the arctic sea ice recovering (as you predicted over a year ago), I will start putting faith in your predictions.

  49. “…By Alaska’s summer standards, it’s been cool in South-Central Alaska this month and especially this week. (By lower 48 standards, it’s flat out cold). It’s been so cool in Anchorage that for the past two days (July 11 and 12) high temperatures have been colder than Barrow, the 9th northernmost city in the world, which is more than 700 miles to the north of Alaska’s largest city…”

    This story was written BEFORE it went through the Mann-o-matic – the corrected version will be picked up worldwide.

    “…It’s been so hot in Barrow (the 9th northernmost city in the world), that for the past two days (July 11 and 12) high temperatures have been warmer than Anchorage, which is more than 700 miles to the SOUTH…”

    See, it all depends on your perspective. If all you’re expecting to see is hotter than normal, you’ll find it. Just pick the right cities.

  50. Phil. says:

    phlogiston says:
    July 14, 2012 at 8:37 am
    Current Arctic ice is a little paradoxical. Its thicker on the side near Greenland and east Canada where temperatures are record high, and apparently very thin on the North pacific side where temperatures are very low.

    Not paradoxical at all, the gyre pushes ice to the Greenland and Northern Canada where piles up, that’s normal although it’s been greatly diminishing over the last several years.

    News from the real world shows unusually heavy sea ice in the north Pacific:
    Although you linked to a report concerning Baffin Island, probably a couple of thousand miles away.

  51. Phil. says:

    mwhite says:
    July 14, 2012 at 4:32 am
    “Steven Mosher says:
    July 13, 2012 at 10:57 pm
    No doubt the ice will be fine then.
    sarc off”

    http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/brutal-bering-sea-ice-blocking-arctic-supply-ships

    “Brutal Bering Sea ice blocking Arctic supply ships”

    So bad it’s blocking supply ships 2,000 miles away!
    (sarc off)

  52. mogamboguru says:

    Anthea Collins says:
    July 14, 2012 at 7:10 am

    We are told, here in the UK, that our current unsummer weather is due to the southerly position of the jet stream. Would this be the case for other areas such as Alaska? And if so when the jet stream moves north will we be back to “global warming”?

    Anthea
    —————————————————————————————————-
    The jet stream “going south” is something you would expect from a cooling world, Anthea. It’s the effect, rather than the cause of the actual cold and wet weather in the Northern Hemsphere. So, if I were you, i wouldn’t sell all my warm clothes on eBay only because the Met Office says so…

  53. phlogiston says:

    Sou says:
    July 13, 2012 at 8:12 pm
    Just proves what lots of your guest bloggers and commenters have been telling us. We’re heading for another ice age. None of this global warming nonsense in that part of Alaska this month.

    To be confirmed when the ratio of record highs to record lows around the world drops below one. I think it’s been on average one record low to two record highs for the past few years, but it’s bound to flip the other way any day now. Not helped by continental USA this year (we can ignore that, it’s just weather), but the UK has been a bit cool and wet the past month or so (that’s more proof that global warming is about to reverse).

    Such deep sarc normally gets missed on blogs. BTW what global warming do you mean? Global temps have slightly cooled since 1998. But I guess they will shoot back up any day now. Its just a matter of waiting for el Ninot.

  54. phlogiston says:

    Phil. says:
    July 14, 2012 at 12:45 pm
    mwhite says:
    July 14, 2012 at 4:32 am
    “Steven Mosher says:
    July 13, 2012 at 10:57 pm
    No doubt the ice will be fine then.
    sarc off”

    http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/brutal-bering-sea-ice-blocking-arctic-supply-ships
    “Brutal Bering Sea ice blocking Arctic supply ships”

    So bad it’s blocking supply ships 2,000 miles away!
    (sarc off)

    This one’s a bit closer:

    http://iceagenow.info/2012/07/sea-ice-delays-shell-alaska-drilling/

  55. phlogiston says:

    mosomoso says:
    July 13, 2012 at 11:47 pm

    In 2007, there was an unmistakable change, and oceanic winds began to dominate again. The El Nino of ’09 had a completely different complexion to those of previous decades, we now get thunder every winter – even in droughty August – and the weather resembles more and more that of my childhood in the fifties.

    Yet this enormity is only lightly discussed.

    It is well known by those who understand oceanography and climate (i.e. Bob Tisdale) that a major climate shift took place in 1976-1977, stemming from a shift in ENSO-related ocean behaviour in the Pacific. It may be that another such change occurred in 2007.

    Sea ice anomalies show a clear change in winter to summer oscillation – a sharp increase in magnitude of oscillation, at 2007:

    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png

    This hints at a change in regime of some sort. In the last year or two of the UAH global temperature record, oscillation has also sharply increased:

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_June_2012.png

    It is well known that over much longer time glacial-interglacial timescales, climate instability and oscillation is greater during periods of declining global temperatures, than during warming periods. It is interesting to speculate that – if the climate system shows fractal characteristics (linked to nonlinear quasi-chaotic dynamics) then such a pattern – greater oscillation and instability while temperatures fall – could also be seen on much shorter timescales also. (A fractal system is one in which patterns repeat at many scales.)

  56. Mary says:

    When I lived in New Hampshire, the TV meteorologist frequently pointed out that when it is unusually cool in Alaska, it is almost always unusually warm in New Hampshire, and vice versa. The heat wave in the east and the cold weather in Alaska fit in with this observation.

  57. Tootn says:

    Cold now, warm tomorrow, and vice versa. Everything’s global warming/climate change, though. Washington DC heat, Anchorage cold, UK lousy summer, Balkan record heat… I’m happy to leave this one post and say that I won’t be reading any more weather stuff on here, nor any of the politics, just the science.

  58. agimarc says:

    Re: Mary @ July 14, 2012 at 3:58 pm

    One of the things we see up here is the notion that there is only so much cold air to go around, though it usually only happens in winter. When it is brutally cold up here, it is nice down south. When the cold drops south, it warms up nicely up here (Anchorage).

    Of course the problem comes when the Ice Age hits and it is cold everywhere and there is more than enough cold air to go around. Meanwhile, gardening is taking a moderate hit up here as the warm weather plants are confined to greenhouses (which we have a lot of) or simply do not do well. The rest of the plants are either doing well or are late. The other thing that colder weather does to gardening is to encourage us to target colder weather tolerant plants – gooseberries, strawberries, raspberries, currants, trollius, broccoli, lettuce, spinach, blue poppies, etc. Live and learn and roll with the punches. As long as we aren’t under half a mile of ice like we were 6,000 years ago, I suppose I am a happy camper. Cheers -

  59. barry says:

    Regarding the science, I’m reading lately about record hot days compared to cold over large data samples (all USA, globe), and over time. Obviously in a warming climate, there are going to be, statistically, more extreme hot events than cold, and this is what we are seeing in spades. I am definitely NOT reading that there was record heat in (x) city, therefore AGW – not from serious, scientific sources. Of course, weather extremes at a single location for a single (half) month tell you nothing about overall climate change. I suppose that kind of specious argument may appear in tabloids or similar. Then, what is the point of the top post? It’s nothing to do with climate or trends or scientific analysis. In the context of this blog, and judging by the majority of following comments, the implication is that a record cold day is a thumb in the eye to AGW. But it certainly isn’t, and there is an opportunity here for the hosts to disabuse followers of that notion.

  60. HenryP says:

    barry says
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/13/coldest-july-in-history-for-anchorage/#comment-1032908

    henry says
    barry, the happenings in Alaska are not a single event of one month or so. According to my table for means in the link quoted below – added up together, it already got 1.5 K colder there in Anchorage, in total, on average, since 2000. And I have two weather stations there spying for me and both weather stations are telling me the same story… !! See here:
    http://www.letterdash.com/henryp/global-cooling-is-here

    If you stare yourselves all blind looking at average temps on earth, you would not (easily) pick up on a significant trend. There is just too much ‘weather noise”
    Look at the development of maxima:
    + 0.36 K/decade since 1974
    +0.29 K/ decade since 1980
    +0.14 K /decade since 1990
    - 0.16 K/decade since 2000
    Now put that in a bi-nominal plot (parabolic)
    and what you get is correlation coefficient =rsquare=0.998
    Is that perhaps significant for you?
    Do the maths excercise and see for yourself that we entered in a cooling phase since 1995.

    Obviously all the dr’s and and prof’s here making their livelyhoods out of AGW or ACC refuse to look at the maxima….there must be a reason?
    But how long do they think they can hide the truth and what will the final cost be to humanity, in terms of wasted crops in the areas that are cooling down faster than elsewhere?

  61. Kelvin Vaughan says:

    agimarc says:

    July 14, 2012 at 8:32 pm

    Meanwhile, gardening is taking a moderate hit up here as the warm weather plants are confined to greenhouses (which we have a lot of) or simply do not do well. The rest of the plants are either doing well or are late. The other thing that colder weather does to gardening is to encourage us to target colder weather tolerant plants

    Have you tried enhancing the CO2 level in your greenhouse. You can get kits on line.

  62. HenryP says:

    Kelvin Vaughan says
    Have you tried enhancing the CO2 level in your greenhouse. You can get kits on line.
    Henry says
    That’s funny. You are funny. As long as you remember that the CO2 is added to greenhouses to stimulate growth, not to trap heat.

    Although, somehow I think the cooling that I observe happening there is probably not a laughing matter.
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/13/coldest-july-in-history-for-anchorage/#comment-1032955

  63. Terry Jackson says:

    July 15, 2012, central Kenai Peninsula, 11;30AM local time, temp is 44F with a brisk wind.

  64. SteveSadlov says:

    RE: Richard111 says:
    July 13, 2012 at 9:55 pm

    Something strange going on. Last night the BBC reported birds that normally migrate in the autumn are arriving in the UK now. In mid July! The report said the birds were mainly from Iceland.
    Barrow webcam still showing a lot of sea ice with local air temp at 41F.
    =====================================================

    Back during the warm 90s the birches near our place would start to turn in September and become bright with color in November. The following decade this shifted a month earlier. Thus far this decade, a month earlier yet.

  65. HenryP says:

    Henry@steve
    I wish I coulld give good news but my results from Alaska are frightening.
    If it gets too cold you have to pack up and leave.

  66. Paul K2 says:

    Well, another blown forecast. The average Anchorage July temperature climbed above the record low. Since the Anchorage temperatures generally increase over the month of July, and the remaining ten day forecast is for higher temperatures, the July average temperature will likely end the month in the range of 55.5 to 56.0 deg F, over one degree higher than the record low. Somebody was way too early with this mistaken forecast…

  67. HenryP says:

    Paul K2 says
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/13/coldest-july-in-history-for-anchorage/#comment-1039023

    Henry@Paul
    According to the records of two weather stations from that area it already cooled by as much as 1.5 K (=1.5 degree Celsius) in Anchorage since 2000
    If I were you (and living in Alaska) I would pack up and go, because it is going to get a lot colder yet…
    (there is about 33 years of cooling yet to come)http://www.letterdash.com/henryp/global-cooling-is-here

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