X class flare CME arrival updated

From Spaceweather.com

The CME launched toward Earth by yesterday’s X-flare is moving faster than originally thought. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab have revised their forecast accordingly, advancing the cloud’s expected arrival time to 09:17 UT (5:17 am EDT) on Saturday, July 14th. Weekend auroras are likely.

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Mike Bromley the Kurd
July 13, 2012 11:44 pm

I wonder if we’ll see any here in Iraq….? That would be a treat.

July 14, 2012 12:08 am

Hopefully Oregon will have some. I have only seen it in Alaska in Sept. 2008.

July 14, 2012 12:23 am

And as usual, north west England is clouded over – sigh…

Mike McMillan
July 14, 2012 1:09 am

I’m buying extra batteries for my transistor radio. I already have tinfoil and bottled water.

July 14, 2012 2:28 am

I am reading this announcment under my bed

July 14, 2012 2:32 am

Finally! I have somehow managed to miss a whole series of Aurora over the years. Tonight, we’ll be at the cottage, off of Parry Sound, Lake Huron, where the nearest town is 30 miles away! Just wish the camera was good enough for night photography…

July 14, 2012 3:46 am

Predicted big solar events are always fizzles. Big solar events only happen when they’re not predicted.

Gary D.
July 14, 2012 3:58 am

There were different predictions in the space weather forecasting between NOAA and NASA for this event which were discussed in a Washington Post blog.
There is an interesting reply from NASA to the WP blogger at the bottom of the article, here are two excerpts:
“NOAA’s methods have more test and validation history and so properly make up an operational system. NASA’s job is to continually improve the state of the art in space weather understanding.”
“Those that depend on space weather information are always advised to consult (NOAA’s) official predictions. Those that enjoy witnessing the progress of science and our nation’s ability to continuously improve on its prediction capabilities will also enjoy following the work of the NASA researchers as they enable the creation of our nation’s next generation prediction systems.”
It sounds like space weather forecasting is an area NASA is trying to expand into, another being climate forecasting (troublemaking).
What NASA appears to be abandoning is space exploration. Which leads to the question: What use then is NASA? All they are now is a NOAA wannabe.

July 14, 2012 5:23 am

I wonder if this might mean it is more intense than Leif originally though, just more concentrated.

Doug Huffman
July 14, 2012 6:40 am

Aaron, are you clear on the meanings of intensity and concentration? Intensity is concentration, specifically in space or time. Concentration is the more general term for the ratio of stuff to not-stuff.
The Carrington Event of 1859, Solar Cycle 10, induced auroras visible in Hawaii and Cuba. It was of arguable X-Class magnitude, sometimes X-25 to X-55!

July 14, 2012 8:04 am

Well, this CME event has not completely ‘killed’ radio; just scored a 2,083 km spot to a station off to my northeast on 6m WSPR (wsprnet.org for more info):
2012-07-14 14:52 WBxyyy 50.294440
SNR=-15 dB

Brian H
July 14, 2012 8:19 am

Hm, lost internet service for a while last night. Wonder if a wee surge blipped something. A modem/router reboot re-established service. So it wasn’t even a micro-Carrington, I guess!

July 14, 2012 8:43 am

Brian H says July 14, 2012 at 8:19 am
Hm, lost internet service for a while last night. Wonder if a wee surge blipped something. A modem/router reboot re-established service. …

What might be termed an ‘upset’ in the local device (cosmic ray cross just the right transistor in a logic gate and at *just* the right moment?); not quite a similar event happen to one of my two DSL routers: one device ‘forgot’ an important parameter and would not connect … this was after a power down and power up cycle; after some detective work and with the correct parameter(s) back in ‘her’ all was well …switched to the other (what was a backup or spare) after that though …
Chalk it up to a 1 in a ‘millyun’ event in any case with an unknown root cause affecting either the ‘executing’ firmware or the hardware directly.

July 14, 2012 8:50 am

10m band is recovering now from event; WSPR spots showing up from up and down the east coast and midwest to the south now and some spots by stations trans-equatorial to S. America (e.g. to Brazil and Uruguay) … I am still getting an occasional spot here in the US on 6m as well.
WSPR homepage: http://wsprnet.org/drupal/
“The Weak Signal Propagation Reporter Network [WSPR] is a group of amateur radio operators using K1JT’s MEPT_JT digital mode to probe radio frequency propagation conditions …”

July 14, 2012 3:48 pm


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