While the Waragamba dam overflows in NSW, and the Sydney Morning Herald reports…
‘Unprecedented amount of rain’: flood evacuations after Sydney dam spills
![dam169-408x264[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/dam169-408x2641.jpg?resize=408%2C229&quality=83)
The quotes that warmists claim don’t exist
By Andrew Bolt
I’ve already written about the deception in this piece by Anthony Sharwood, who falsely claims sceptics accuse alarmist scientist of saying it “would never rain again”.
The accusation is inherently preposterous. Never rain again? In fact, the accusation – and the truth – is that many warming alarmists claimed we’d get less rain, with some even tipping a “permanent drought” and empty dams. See the quotes here.
But I’ve since been sent even more quotes that suggest Sharwood was hoodwinked by the National Climate Centre – or that the NCC itself is incapable of proper research.
Let’s focus on the highlighted part of Sharwood’s defence of climate scientists:
Dr Karl Braganza of the National Climate Centre… says that any prediction whatsoever of higher or lower rainfall as a result of climate change is complete bunkum.
That’ll come as a surprise to those who promoted the straw man argument that the climate scientists all told us in the midst of the drought that it would never rain again.
In fact, the reputable scientists never said anything of the sort.
“I have trawled everything we put out to see if someone from one of our offices said anything like this, but no, we definitely never put out statements that it would never rain again,” says Dr Karl.
“The scientists at the BoM (Bureau of Meteorology)and CSIRO made continuous statements that the drought will end, and that [the dry spell in the 2000s] wasn’t permanent…”
Here’s all of that in a nutshell. No one reputable ever said it wouldn’t rain again. All they said is, it’s getting warmer and we don’t really know what comes next. Maybe it’s more rain. Maybe it’s less. We’re still working on that.
No predictions were made about future rainfall? Any predictions were “bunkum”? “We’re still working on that”?
The barest research of statements by the Bureau of Meteorology or the CSIRO by Sharwood or Breganza would have revealed all that to be nonsense. Spokesmen of both warmist insitutions said exactly what Breganza denies. Examples:
The Sydney Morning Herald in 2008:
IT MAY be time to stop describing south-eastern Australia as gripped by drought and instead accept the extreme dry as permanent, one of the nation’s most senior weather experts warned yesterday.
“Perhaps we should call it our new climate,” said the Bureau of Meteorology’s head of climate analysis, David Jones….
“There is a debate in the climate community, after … close to 12 years of drought, whether this is something permanent. Certainly, in terms of temperature, that seems to be our reality, and that there is no turning back….”
The Bureau of Meteorology’s Jones to the University of East Anglia in 2007:
Truth be know, climate change here is now running so rampant that we don’t need meteorological data to see it. Almost everyone of our cities is on the verge of running out of water and our largest irrigation system (the Murray Darling Basin is on the verge of collapse…
The Bureau of Meteorology’s Jones in The Age in 2008:
Should Victorians view this drought as climate change? This drought is now far beyond our historical experience. It is very difficult to make a case that this is just simply a run of bad luck driven by a natural cycle and that a return to more normal rainfall is inevitable, as some would hope.
Climate change caused by humans is now acting to make droughts more severe and increasingly likely… Regardless of the underlying cause, the drought provides Victorians with a snapshot of a hot and dry future that we all will collectively face.
The Age in 2009:
A three-year collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO has confirmed what many scientists long suspected: that the 13-year drought is not just a natural dry stretch but a shift related to climate change…
‘’It’s reasonable to say that a lot of the current drought of the last 12 to 13 years is due to ongoing global warming,’’ said the bureau’s Bertrand Timbal.
‘’In the minds of a lot of people, the rainfall we had in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s was a benchmark. A lot of our [water and agriculture] planning was done during that time. But we are just not going to have that sort of good rain again as long as the system is warming up.’’…
CSIRO in June 2010:
Climate model projections for the coming decades indicate an increased risk of below average rainfall for south-eastern Australia….The current rainfall decline is in part attributed to climate change, raising the possibility that the current dry conditions may persist, and possibly intensify, as has been the case in south-west Western Australia.
CSIRO press release in October 2010:
Senator Wong said the findings of CSIRO’s South-West Western Australia Sustainable Yields (SWSY) Project were sobering… The research, which will inform key water planning and management decisions for Perth and the entire south-west of the state, found the region could face a 24 per cent reduction in surface water yields by 2030 under a median future climate, according to CSIRO project leader, Dr Don McFarlane.
CSIRO newsletter in 2007:
Southern Australia will continue to experience a reduction in rainfall in winter and spring, the impact of which will be magnified by increased temperatures…
“Our results provide strong evidence that rising temperatures, hence increasing evaporation due to the enhanced greenhouse effect, impact on Australia’s water resources, in addition to any reduction in rainfall.”
What could partially offset this is an increase in summer rainfall in south east Australia
And if the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO really had no idea if global warming would bring less water or more, why did they not say so when politicians built hugely expensive desal plants in expection of less rainfall, or warned farmers to prepare for more droughts?
Fact is, they called it wrong. And warmist scientists and journalists don’t want you to know it.
Why?
Climatologist Stewart Franks has written to Breganza to ask if he’d known of some of these statements. We will try to let you know how he responds.
(Thanks to reader Bob.)
UPDATE
However, it turns out that it is not just Flannery that has been making incorrect statements – many supposed experts including prominent commentators from the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO have been making equally incorrect statements. In principle, these people should really know better….
The mistake that Tim Flannery, as well as the numerous expert commentators made, was that they confused climate variability for climate change. The future impact of climate change is very uncertain, but when one “wants to believe”, then it is all too easy to get sucked in and to get it spectacularly wrong.
Breganza has responded to Franks. I do not feel licensed to quote from it, but as I understand it, his argument is that the quotes I’ve produced don’t come from oficial documents but scientists speaking unofficially to journalists without context or the ability to correct errors.
I cannot say I’m impressed.
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Keep doing this… keep reminding them of their statements, which were swallowed hook, line and sinker by a gullible media that force-fed it to the public. This is why I say, DON’T MUZZLE THEM… in fact, not only let them get both feet into their mouths, but make sure NOBODY FORGETS.
Their own words, their own ridiculous alarm-raising, will be their undoing.
Yeah, Australians won’t know what rain is… Canadians won’t know what ice is… Britons won’t know what snow is… really, really stupid statements, from all involved, and well documented. Can’t walk away from them.
Climate scientists won’t know what Science is… THAT’s a statement I stand behind…
This is the opposition leader in Australia, Tony Abbott. He hates the carbon tax, he will repeal it, axe the climate commissioner and clean green energy subsidies.
Go you Beauty!
I see this all the time. Careful speaking to allow ‘plausible deniability’ somewhere down the line. Yet they know exactly what they are doing. Fraudsters.
billions in mothballed desal plants is only the beginning of the damage done by the Alarmists in Australia. the modus operandi in the following link should sound familiar. all u need to know is Hedley Thomas of The Australian newspaper was/is the only reporter getting to the bottom of this very expensive story, relating to the severity of the Brisbane floods last year, and the BOM’s raw data was hardly the place to be looking for an accurate picture:
10 Feb: Australian: Jared Owens and Rosanne Barrett: Wivenhoe w(a)rning to ‘get on front foot ‘ with The Oz
A HYDROLOGIST who independently assessed Wivenhoe Dam’s compliance with its manual was hired after praising the efforts of dam engineers and urging them to “get on the front foot” against scrutiny by this newspaper.
Brisbane hydrologist Greg Roads told Queensland’s floods inquiry yesterday he stood by his March review of Wivenhoe operations, saying the engineers carried out their duties in compliance with the dam’s operating manual…
Mr Roads was quizzed over his email to SEQWater principal hydrologist Terrence Malone four days after the flood peak on January 13, saying it “looks like you guys did a great job”.
Mr Roads was responding to an email from Mr Malone thanking him for “supportive comments” he gave in an article published in The Australian that day.
“I think (reporter) Hedley Thomas has smelled blood,” Mr Roads wrote, copying in Mr Malone’s fellow engineers John Tibaldi, Robert Ayre and John Ruffini.
“I advised (SEQWater dam and weir planning principal) Barton (Maher) yesterdays (sic) that you guys will need to get on the front foot with him. It shouldn’t be me!”
Six weeks later, Mr Roads was commissioned to review the engineers’ compliance, sending his report to Mr Tibaldi on March 9.
Asked how he could have judged the engineers’ work before seeing SEQWater’s account of its actions, Mr Roads said he was intently following raw data on the Bureau of Meteorology website as the disaster unfolded…
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/wivenhoe-wrning-to-get-on-front-foot-with-the-oz/story-fn59niix-1226267178158
Sounds like Breganza is resorting to the Zeigler defence.
Those with longer memories will recall how Nixon’s press secretary Ron Zeigler, when pressed on apparent conflicts between Nixon’s continuing statements on Watergate, declared that the latest statement was ‘operative’, and that all the earlier statements were ‘inoperative’.
I guess the quotes listed above are all now inoperative ?
A Maunder like moment would really mess with some Professional Career’s.
Damn this internet thingy. It makes it far to easy to dredge up inconvient quotes.
Here in my part of New South Wales, Australia, we have seen the Sun once so far this March and are only up to three times the March average rainfall in the first 7 days. And if you want to see what good rain will do to a half complete dam have a look at –
http://www.actew.com.au/Our%20Projects/Enlarged%20Cotter%20Dam/DamCam.aspx
BOM/CSIRO rainfall map here: http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/trendmaps.cgi?map=rain&area=aus&season=0112&period=1960
Note the start date is 1960. Change that to 1900 and you will see the long-term trend is wetter, not drier. The period 1900-50 is drier than the period 1951-2000. OTOH the climate models say that the reverse is happening. Quelle suprise!
“The mistake that Tim Flannery, as well as the numerous expert commentators made, was that they confused climate variability for climate change”.
—–
It’s a universal phenomenon. But surely by now, Mr. Flannery and his stooges in the media are saying that “no,no, we always said that climate change = floods”. Or at least, that this is “man-made climate *disruption* – expect more droughts and/or floods, er, and any other type of weather, and they’re all our fault”.
AGW is a shape-shifting monster that has co-opted the weather, any weather, to it’s cause. My deep sympathies to the Aussies.
We’re also paying for three useless desalination plants. Not much change from $10 billion. Which Dr Flannery is at least partly responsible for in my view.
The biggest, in Melbourne, is ‘way over budget and has not yet been completed because it has been raining so much the builders haven’t been able to work on it. Irony, what irony?
I have a similar story brewing over at my site.
I know, I haven’t posted anything in 6 months,
but there really hasn’t been anything to post about.
I am working on a larger story at the moment and
it takes up a considerable amount of my energy.
So, for now, I thought I would include this story as a sidebar
to this story you just posted Anthony.
Just like Flannery is being caught telling lies and half-truths,
another story of double speak comes from Terry Marsh.
Marsh is the lead scientist at CEH and if we didn’t know better,
we could say that he has changed his tune on Climate Change.
But fortunately, Al Gore’s internet has the real story of
lies and deceit that has become synonymous among alarmists.
I call the story,”Following the Trail of Nonsense.” I thought I would
work of one of your stories and use a similar line.
I hope you don’t mind.
Its a simple article. Man supports CAGW. Man gets paid millions supporting CAGW
with quotes of its worse than we thought. To, Oh, by the way, rising sea levels and flooding
in the British river ways is a NATURAL PHENOMENA!
http://climate4all.wordpress.com/2012/03/06/following-the-trail-of-nonsense/
You will find it entertaining.
I can only hope that there comes a rebuttal from Marsh.
Things could get interesting.
Good Day!
…And. we have desal plants at Adelaide, Melbourne and Brisbane & a now axed pipeline from the Murray to Melbourne, a temporary dam to prevent salt accumulating in the lower Murray River Lakes, also now dismantled…all these items at huge costs…when rivers and dams have been full or nearly full for close to;2 or 3 years. Much of NSW-NE VIC resembles an inland sea, green grass abounds in the outback and this is the third year in a row of floods and record rains in many areas of Central and Eastern Australia.
As I sit here in Sydney, it is just after 8pm and it is raining. In fact it has been raining almost every day for a few weeks now, and I do not mean drizzle. It is rain. Saves me having to water the garden I suppose …
I think we may have to become used to years without a summer, just like this year.
“…..his argument is that the quotes I’ve produced don’t come from oficial [sic] documents but scientists speaking unofficially to journalists without context or the ability to correct errors…”.
Oh, of course, there I was, thinking it was the mentioned scientists’ fault that we’re stuck with these white elephantine desal plants, or the credulous politicians’ fault, and all the time it was the journalists’ fault. Oh, it’s so obvious now. I’ve seen the light! Well, they must be punished then, mustn’t they?
Seriously though, what a pitiful excuse.
Here is the definition of failure –
(Dr.) David Jones, of the Australian BoM, February 2009:
“VICTORIA is likely to come under the influence of another El Nino within the next three years, exacerbating the drought and the likelihood of bushfires, a senior Bureau of Meteorology climate scientist says.
David Jones, the head of the bureau’s National Climate Centre, said there was some risk of a worsening El Nino event this year, but it was more likely to arrive in 2010 or 2011.
“We are in the build-up to the next El Nino and already the drought is as bad as it has ever been — in terms of the drought, this may be as good as things get,” Dr Jones said.”
http://www.theage.com.au/national/drought-and-fire-here-to-stay-with-el-ninos-return-20090216-899u.html#ixzz1nrZUq1ik
February, 2012 Australian BoM:
“Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Peter Newham said February rainfall tended to come in bursts, and this was second year Victoria had received a February drenching as a result of the La Nina weather conditions.”
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/weather/torrential-downpours-cause-flash-flooding-20120228-1tzjo.html
Give that man a medal:
http://www.bom.gov.au/quarterly-focus/archive/index-ozdaymedal.shtml
On top of all that we have now some very expensive desalination plants that ‘cannot be stopped’ and with the dam overflowing, their output sort of just runs back into the ocean.
”his argument is that the quotes I’ve produced don’t come from oficial documents but scientists speaking unofficially to journalists without context or the ability to correct errors.”
I’m sure they can show how they attempted to correct the false impression that had been created. Or not.
The fellow has amazing nerve. If there was not a ‘scientific’ expectation for a decrease in rainfall, various state governments would not have spent billions on desalination plants. The Queensland state government has now mothballed theirs. The New South Wales state government is investigating it’s contractual arrangements to see if it can mothball it’s one. The Victorian State government’s plant has not yet been finished, because construction delayed due to wet weather. If no experts were warning against dramatic and short term reductions in rainfall, why the huge rush to build these plants and who exactly did these various governments actually listen to? Are we expected to believe they acted against the recommendations of experts?
A previous discussion on Australian drought predictions by the CSIRO
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/09/13/climate-disaster-declining-rainfall-rising-sea-levels/
It contains a rather precise prediction from CSIRO scientists.
“CSIRO statistician Dr Yun Li and climate physicists Professor Jianping Li and Juan Feng from the Chinese Academy of Sciences remark that since the mid-1970s south-west Western Australia has seen a 15-20 per cent decrease in average winter rainfall, from 323 mm in 1925-1976 to 276 mm from 1976-2003.
South-west WA – a vast area which includes Perth, the Margaret River wine region and the West Australian wheat belt – receives most of its annual rainfall during winter from passing cold fronts and storms. However, since the mid-1970s, the number of storms in the region have decreased leading to less rainfall with the drier conditions being exacerbated due to more high pressure systems entering the area.
Modelling suggests a decrease in mean annual rainfall of 7 per cent and a 14 per cent reduction in surface water runoff in the period 2021 to 2050 relative to the period 1961 to 1990. If current climate trends continue, south-west WA will potentially experience 80 per cent more drought-months by 2070.”
However, in the last couple of years we have seen annual rainfall in southwestern Australia return to long term average levels. And as I observe in the thread above, we saw a similar period of low rainfall early in the 20th century, after which wetter periods returned.
I also recall another thread which unfortunately I can’t find where I debated a CSIRO scientist who stated that the CSIRO advised the Western Australia government in the 1970s not to extend the agricultural areas eastward as in the future these areas would not receive enough rainfall to make agriculture viable due to ‘climate change’.
When its hot and dry its due to ‘Climate Change’.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/01/29/us-australia-heat-idUSTRE50S0OA20090129?feedType=RSS&feedName=environmentNews
When its cold and wet it’s due to La Nina
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-01-04/la-nina-leads-to-third-wettest-year-on-record/3758114
There is quite a bit of historical revisionism going on among associate Team members in Australia at present. A notable acolyte is David Jones of the formerly esteemed Bureau of Meterology (quoted above), who was a bit player in the Climategate 2 emails:
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/climategate_2_how_the_bureaus_david_jones_showed_sceptics
Mr Jones has been quiet of late – perhaps he is baling water out of his house and yard, as large parts of eastern Australia are currently flooded. But he still has his well paid job at public expense advocating for The Cause.
Thanks for giving a plug to Andrew Bolt, who has copped years of odium as an alleged Gaia-hating, grandchild-destroying shill of Big Fossil Fuel. And they are some of the nicer things that his opponents have said about him.
Breganza has responded to Franks. I do not feel licensed to quote from it, but as I understand it, his argument is that the quotes I’ve produced don’t come from oficial documents but scientists speaking unofficially to journalists without context or the ability to correct errors.
So that CSIRO press release in October 2010 and the CSIRO newsletter in 2007 don’t count as “official documents”? **face palm**
“Breganza has responded to Franks. I do not feel licensed to quote from it, but as I understand it, his argument is that the quotes I’ve produced don’t come from oficial documents but scientists speaking unofficially to journalists without context or the ability to correct errors.
I cannot say I’m impressed.”
The newspaper is an official document. If there is something written factually incorrect then the jounalists and editors are up for libel or fraud if they don’t print a redaction or correction. The people who provided the quotes did not protest on the written word so it is fact that these people said what was written.
Everybody in Australia knows that the Australian climate teamsters are fools anyway.
What goes on in Australia by the climate science community is a disgrace. Reputable science organisations have these taxpayer sponsored get-togethers during a 7 year drought and conclude:
-They suggest that global warming, being caused mostly by humans, is causing a permanent shift to drier conditions in Australia. They say this so that more deslanation dams are built, and less dams (at least 2 were mothballed-one in Victoria, one in NSW), using taxpayer funded money (most of which comes frrom mining, which they are also generally against).
-The Murray Darling river system they claim is in dire straits, during the 7 year drought, again, they claim, being caused mainly by humans causing a shift to permanent drought. (It promptly flooded the last 2 years). They assumed, like a really bad investor, that a past trend simply means that such a trend will continue. Perhaps, instread of taking money from the taxpayer, every climate science initiative has to involve personal money invested by climate scientists-I wonder then if they would be investing their own money buying back water for the now naturally flooded Murray-Darling Basin.
-Tim Flannery claimed the dams would never be full again, partly because of the permanent shift to drier conditions, and partly because the soil was too hot (the have since nearly all filled and flooded). Never have I seen a reputable scientist be so stupid, and so out of balance. If he cant correctly assess the (lack of) relationship between soil temperature and water runoff, then how can he correctly assess the relationship between something like CO2 and temperature. (The answer is he can’t, he has made a career mostly out of pandering to the prejudices of the left (you know green good, mining bad; renewable energy good industrialisation bad ; irrigation and dams bad desalination plants good etc etc), which is now causing him trouble when people are actually checking his now defunct claims).
-They claim the drought was unprecedented, it wasnt. There was a 7 year drought from 1895-1902 called the Federation Drought, and Plimer correctly showed longer droughts up to 10 years or more which have occurred further in the past.
-They failed to acknowledge that the drier conditions and less cloud cover was also contributing to the apparent temperature warming, the 7 years of drought were particularly warm partly because there were less cloouds and less rain.They never mentioned this anywhere, attributing the 7 year warm period to humans and C02, without looking at the cloud cover. The last 2 years have been noticeably cooler in Australia, which they now correctly note is partly because there is more clouds and more rain. (So when its cooler its because of clouds, but when its warmer its not because of less clouds, but because of C02).
Amongst other things, Flannery has claimed and got wrong in the past:
-in the 1990s in the book the Future Eaters he claimed that Aaustrlaia shoudn’t invest in mineral resources because they were in decline and likely to run out soon. They have since boomed.
-in 2011 in the book the Natural History of Planet Eearth he claimed that mineral desposits (he doesn’t say which ones) are created by microorganims taking minerals out of sea-water-on behalf of gaia- to make the oceans clean, which are then sometimes uplifted and taken out the hills to poison the water again by miners. Most mineral deposits are formed by nature itself-by tectonic and magmatic (ie volcanic) processes, and have nothing to do with micoorganimss in the sea In fact in the entire book, about the geology of the earth, he doesnt mention volcanoes hardly or at all, because in general volcanoes do not generally sit well with the ideology of the green movement. How you can write a book about the geological history of the planet without mentionng volcanoes is beyond me. He also suggests and support the idea that gaia made the crust through the action of microorganisms as a kind of shell, and the atmosphere as a kind of cocoon, which we are now destroying. He also claims mining is the biggest threat to humans and the enviroment, (his standard few pages against mining in virtually every book he writes so as to pander to the prejudices of the green left, something bad must be said about big, bad, evil mining which is going to make the sky fall down and destroy the world. He never once mentions what mining does for Australia, and the world in general (e.g. funds for hospitals, schools, welfare etc), nor that societies are simply unsustainable without it).
A scientist not happy with the general climate science comunity in Australia.
T
This guy make me angry everytime he’s on a newscast, or ABC propaganda show. He’s on AU$180k p/a, part-time, for this drivel. Victoria, New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland have all deployed desal plants due, largely, to his advice. Here in NSW the desal plant output has been reduced from 250M/l to only 40M/l per day, yet our water bills rise to pay out the contracts to private operator. If ever Flannery is dicovered to have “vested interests” in desal plants, he’ll pay for it dearly I am sure. Gillard and The Greens really have doing themselves and the country a huge diservice. Anyway, Tim reminds me of this Harry Enfield character…