Notes on the faked Heartland document

UPDATE: there’s even more evidence that the document was faked. The Koch Foundation and The Atlantic weighs in in update 3 below.

As a follow up to the post Notes on the Heartland Leak, I’ve prepared some notes on the PDF document “2012 Climate Strategy” that Heartland says in their press release is a fake among the other documents distributed. They say specifically that:

One document, titled “Confidential Memo: 2012 Heartland Climate Strategy,” is a total fake apparently intended to defame and discredit The Heartland Institute. It was not written by anyone associated with The Heartland Institute. It does not express Heartland’s goals, plans, or tactics. It contains several obvious and gross misstatements of fact.

Here is a screencap of the top part of that document, which was printed, and then scanned, unlike any of the other documents which were direct to PDF from word processing programs:

There’s been a lot of scrutiny in comments on various blogs, and I’ve given some scrutiny to the document as well, comparing it with other documents in the set. I’m in agreement that this is a fake, here is why:

1. It is the only document in the set that appears to have been scanned rather than produced by a PDF document publisher such as Adobe Distiller 8.0 or 8.1 which were both in document properties on other documents. For example compare the two document properties side by side. I’ve placed arrows marking distinct differences:

2. The metadata in document properties in the document said to be faked have been sanitized. Why cover tracks? This could possibly be due to the leaker not knowing how to remove other metadata in standard PDF, but knows if he/she scans it on an Epson flatbed scanner and saves it to the scanner’s memory stick/flash drive port, there will be no personally identifiable information.

3. One of the first questions I asked Joe Bast of Heartland when I saw this printed then scanned document was “do you not shred your trash”?  His response was, “there’s no need, all the communications are done electronically by email”. That suggests a paper copy never existed in the Heartland office. The fact that none of the documents contains any personal signatures lends credence to this.

4. It doesn’t read like a strategy document, as it mixes strategy with operational details and commentary.

5. It gets the operational details ( budget) wrong – especially the points about my project, rounding up to $90,000 from a very specific budget number of $88,000. This suggests trying to inflate the number for a purpose. There’s no evidence of rounding budget numbers in any other document in the set.

6. Key sentences are rather clumsily written and some make no sense. This contrasts with purposeful language in the other documents. This one sentence in particular has gotten a lot of attention:

His effort will focus on providing curriculum that shows that the topic of climate change is controversial and uncertain – two key points that are effective at dissuading teachers from teaching science.

I can’t imagine pitching “…dissuading teachers from teaching science.” to a board of directors at a meeting. It is a sure recipe for a public relations nightmare.

7. There are punctuation errors throughout it, suggesting it is not a professional document. There’s an overuse of commas for example. The formatting is different than other documents in the set, with a left justified title. All other Heartland documents have a center justified title. Fonts for titles don’t match either. The “2012 Climate Strategy” document has a different font.

8. The “2012 Climate Strategy” is the purported “smoking gun” that provides commentary and context missing from the other factual documents. Without this framing document, the other documents and what they contain, are rather bland. Without it, there’s not much red meat to dangle in front of people that would tear into it.

9. The document misrepresents the positions of Andrew Revkin and Dr. Judith Curry. This seems to come from a point of speculation, not from a point of certainty.

10. Most of the documents were prepared by Joe Bast, listed as author “jbast” in the PDF document metadata and done around 8AM on Monday, January 16th. One document, “Board Directory 01-18-12_0.pdf” has an author “ZMcElrath” ( a Heartland employee according to the Budget document) and was created on Wednesday January 25th at 1:04PM, within working hours just like all the others.

The document in question the “2012 Climate Strategy” has a timestamp of Monday, Feb 13th, at 12:41PM, just one day before “DeSmog Blog” released the documents on their website. The timeline disparity doesn’t make a lot of sense for documents that were supposedly mailed to a person posing as a board member (according to an alleged email snippet on Keith Kloor’s website) to trick someone at Heartland to email them the package of documents. Here it is:

Dear Friends (15 of you):

In the interest of transparency, I think you should see these files from the Heartland Institute. Look especially at the 2012 fundraising and budget documents, the information about donors, and compare to the 2010 990 tax form. But other things might also interest or intrigue you. This is all I have. And this email account will be removed after I send.

It would have had to have been sent sometime between 12:41PM Chicago time on Monday Feb13th and Tuesday Feb 14th 16:39 (Pacific Time) when the first comment appeared on DeSmog Blogs first post on the issue. According to David Appell’s blog, Keith Kloor says it was sent yesterday (Feb 14th), which is after the creation date for the “2012 Climate Strategy” memo of “2/13/2012 12:41:52 PM. Which means DeSmog blog had the documents only a short time.

Appell also writes: Desmogblog Had Leaked Docs For Only an Hour

I guess I’m behind on this, because this afternoon Politico reported that Desmogblog received the documents yesterday (2/14) and “The blog posted them about an hour later without contacting the Heartland Institute for confirmation.”

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=5826D160-4705-4D72-A0BB-44C8C2EDA7DC

So they received them after the suspicious memo was scanned (according to its metadata). Which doesn’t prove its not fake, but at least the timeline isn’t inconsistent.

Appell also thinks the document makeup is suspicious and does his own metadata analysis.

Summary:

All the above evidence, plus Heartland’s statement saying it is a fake, taken in total suggest strongly that the “2012 Climate Strategy” document is a fake. From my perspective, it is almost if the person(s) looking at these said “we need more to get attention” and decided to create this document as the “red meat” needed to incite a response.

Indeed, the ploy worked, as there are now  216 instances (as of this writing) of this document title “Confidential Memo: 2012 Heartland Climate Strategy” on Google at various news outlets and websites.

The question to ask then is this: who benefits the most from the existence of such a document? A disgruntled employee? Hardly. Such things often backfire. And, who would know best how to craft such a document for maximum public impact? I think the answers are there, but the question needs to be asked. From what I hear, Heartland is going for criminal prosecution and/or civil liabilities on this one. They certainly have a case.

All of those news outlets and bloggers that regurgitated this document and the claims in it without checking for the veracity of it first are going to have some defending to do to. The Guardian seems particularly vulnerable for their “publish first, ask questions later” tactic.

UPDATE: At Lucia’s Blackboard, commenter Duke C. have been delving into the faked memo. What he has found is quite interesting:

Duke C. (Comment #89877)

February 15th, 2012 at 9:55 pm

Steve McIntyre (Comment #89815)

February 15th, 2012 at 4:31 pm

If you look at the Document Properties of the various Heartland documents, the Confidential Memo has a date of Feb 13, 2012 whereas the other documents date from January. In addition, the agenda source (for example) refers to a p: drive and an origin in a *.wpd document, while the Confidential Memo does not have these features.

The Confidential Strategy Memo and the Form 990 were both scanned, possibly from the same source. There are similarities in the Metadata. Both were created under PDF Version 1.5, with the same Extensible Metadata Platform Core:

xmlns:x=”adobe:ns:meta/” x:xmptk=”Adobe XMP Core 5.2-c001 63.139439, 2010/09/27-13:37:26

The other 6 pdfs show a different core version:

xmlns:x=”adobe:ns:meta/” x:xmptk=”Adobe XMP Core 4.0-c316 44.253921, Sun Oct 01 2006 17:14:39

The Form 990 linked at DeSmog shows August 02, 2011 as the last modified date. The 990 linked at Heartlandinstitute.org shows December 06, 2011. Scanning artifacts indicate that both are identical.

All of this is, of course, circumstantial evidence. but I’m not ready to rule out that the Strategy memo wasn’t scanned at Heartland.

================================================

Duke C. (Comment #89887)

February 15th, 2012 at 11:03 pm

More on the Strategy memo-

EPSON Scan

2012-02-13T12:41:52-08:00

2012-02-13T12:41:52-08:00

2012-02-13T12:41:52-08:00

Hmmm……

That’s Pacific Standard Time, if I’m reading it right.

=================================================

Duke C. (Comment #89888)

February 15th, 2012 at 11:07 pm

Oops. with html tags removed:

rdf:Description rdf:about=””

xmlns:pdf=”http://ns.adobe.com/pdf/1.3/”

pdf:Producer EPSON Scan /pdf:Producer

/rdf:Description

rdf:Description rdf:about=””

xmlns:xmp=”http://ns.adobe.com/xap/1.0/”

xmp:ModifyDate 2012-02-13T12:41:52-08:00 /xmp:ModifyDate

xmp:CreateDate 2012-02-13T12:41:52-08:00 /xmp:CreateDate

xmp:MetadataDate 2012-02-13T12:41:52-08:00 /xmp:MetadataDate

=================================================

According to the “contact” page at Heartland, they have no west coast offices:

The Heartland Institute

One South Wacker Drive #2740

Chicago, Illinois 60606

312/377-4000

map

Telephone Phone: 312/377-4000

Fax: 312/377-5000

Other offices 1728 Connecticut Avenue NW #2B

Washington, DC 20009

Phone: 202/525-5717

AdministratorP.O. Box 10330

Tallahassee, FL 32302

Christian R. Camara3900 Pearce Road

Austin, TX 78730

Julie DrennerP.O. Box 361195

Columbus, Ohio 43236

Alan Smith

Now who do we know on the West Coast in the Pacific Time Zone? One major player in this mix is in the Pacific Time Zone according to their “contact” page.

In the Heartland budget document “(1-15-2012) 2012 Heartland Budget.pdf ” in section 3, there’s also reference made to an employee that was let go that works out of the west coast home office. These are places to start asking questions.

UPDATE2: It seems Andrew Revkin, one of the first to publicly post about the documents without checking the veracity first, now agrees to the possibility of a fake (h/t A.Scott) :

“looking back, it could well be something that was created as a way to assemble the core points in the batch of related docs.”

Source: http://blog.heartland.org/2012/02/andrew-revkin-finds-journalism-religion-after-posting-fraudulent-document/

UPDATE3: 11:15AM 2/16/12 Megan McArdle at the Atlantic has even more evidence it is a fake. (h/t Bart)

It seems that the Koch Brothers had nothing to do with climate donations to Heartland, but they confirm they did donate for health care campaigns. Koch confirms in a press release that their contribution was for health care, not global warming:

The [Koch] Foundation gave just $25,000 to Heartland in 2011 (the only such donation to that organization in more than 10 years) and that funding was specifically directed to a healthcare research program, and not climate change research, as was erroneously reported.

McArdle writes:

Unless there’s an explanation I’m missing, that seems to clinch it–why would health care donations show up in their climate strategy report?  Unless of course, it was written by someone who doesn’t know anything about facts of the donation, but does know that the Kochs make great copy.

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February 15, 2012 11:47 pm

Shall we start a fund to send Leo Hickman to some proper journalism classes?

juanslayton
February 15, 2012 11:56 pm

I believe this part is from the smogger, not the cover e-mail:
It both corroborates and is corroborated by the leaked Heartland documents, which reinforce Mashey’s conclusion that Heartland is a for-profit public relations and lobbying firm that is operating with non-profit status by misrepresenting the nature of its activities in its own tax filings.
REPLY: Yes correct, excess of the pasted text fixed, thanks, Anthony

February 15, 2012 11:59 pm

Maurizio Morabito (omnologos) said February 15, 2012 at 11:47 pm

Shall we start a fund to send Leo Hickman to some proper journalism classes?

The Git commenced Journalism at UTas back in 2004 and lasted all of two lectures and one tutorial. It was, being kind, useless. The only classes where critical thinking was taught and practiced were Philosophy, History and Geology.

February 16, 2012 12:01 am

Anthony, your points:

6. Key sentences are rather clumsily written and some make no sense.
7. There are punctuation errors throughout it, suggesting it is not a professional document. There’s an overuse of commas for example. The formatting is different than other documents in the set,

Were the giveaways for me. It’s very amateurish.

Richard111
February 16, 2012 12:03 am

I really, really would like to see the Guardian humbled.

sHx
February 16, 2012 12:04 am

I think there is pretty much a consensus among climate skeptics that the term climate denialist/denier is used on purpose to draw parallels between skeptics and the Holocaust deniers.
Now we have a document which is so fraudulent it instantly brings to mind The Protocols of Elders of Zion forgery.
What is worse is that the climate doomsday cult and its followers expect people to believe the narrative is true even if the document itself is forged.
This is like saying “just because the protocols proved to be forgery doesn’t mean Jews aren’t out to get you”.
The hypocrisy, the duplicity, the ignorance, the gullibility, the hard-headedness, the closed-mindedness and the malevolence of the CAGW True Believer would put any anti-semite to shame.

February 16, 2012 12:04 am

Also:

His effort will focus on providing curriculum that shows that the topic of climate change is controversial and uncertain – two key points that are effective at dissuading teachers from teaching science.

Anyone who knows David Wojick’s writing would immediately know that there is no way he’d be involved in anything as silly as this.

Hari Seldon
February 16, 2012 12:04 am

Wonder if the UK Guardian will publish this analysis ?

Bob Koss
February 16, 2012 12:10 am

Duke C. over at Lucia’s seems to have found a time stamp on the strategy memo showing a Pacific coast creation time for the scan. Comments 89887-89888.
Isn’t Heartland only located in D. C. and Chicago?

Alan Wilkinson
February 16, 2012 12:17 am

I’m presuming this “memo” was not signed? It is inconceivable such a document would be circulated to a Board without an author, particularly since it uses the first person pronoun. However, it is equally unlikely that a forger would put a name on it since that could not only immediately reveal it as a fake but open those publicising it to defamation suits.
This also supports the fake claim.

Konrad
February 16, 2012 12:18 am

In recent news – – –
A bungling Iranian bomber blew off his own legs when he hurled a grenade at Thai police outside a Bangkok school – which bounced off a tree and then exploded at his feet.
A bungling climate alarmist tried to spice up boring stolen documents from the Heartland Institute, but had their amateurish fake exposed, blowing off the story’s legs.
– – –
I don’t think the fools involved in this sordid affair are going to get a big thank you from their former friends at the Biased Broadcasting Cabal or the Leftardian.

Sandy
February 16, 2012 12:24 am

James Delingpole will almost certainly run with this. Supports his Watermelons book too.
Should be most entertaining.

JJ
February 16, 2012 12:29 am

This from Heartland:
How did this happen? The stolen documents were obtained by an unknown person who fraudulently assumed the identity of a Heartland board member and persuaded a staff member here to “re-send” board materials to a new email address. Identity theft and computer fraud are criminal offenses subject to imprisonment. We intend to find this person and see him or her put in prison for these crimes
Indicates that they know exactly when the theft occured. The time stamp on the email from the duped staffer to the theif would establish that. If that time is prior to 12:41PM on Feb 13, then the Strategy document clearly didn’t originate at Heartland.
Also, check the PDF modified dates. They are all Feb 14, 2012. Span 3 hours from 11 am to 2 pm. What was changed vs. the originals as recieved?

cb
February 16, 2012 12:31 am

Is it not highly amusing that this mysterious Defender of the book-cookers, himself cooked the books? A liar telling lies in order to defend the Liars of Mann-kind? But this is of secondary importance: obviously the truth would have come out very quickly.
Do not let the TRUE objective of all this be lost from view: firstly to try and strip the Heartland Institute itself of its financial backers, and secondarily but most importantly to make people more wary to back ANY similar group. This would be classical if the Defender where the CIA – there is a term for this exact thing, but I cannot recall it at the moment. In any case, all else is secondary to this purpose – the clear and obvious Goal, of this as-yet unidentified Defender of the Manns.
I know this is all obvious, but I have yet to see this issue raised to the centrality it requires.

CodeTech
February 16, 2012 12:32 am

It’s as authentic as the document purporting to show G. W. Bush shirked his Vietnam obligations,
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/bush-papers-were-faked-admits-cbs-6161169.html
and 0bama’s birth certificate (yeah, whatever, the one produced was a hastily re-issued copy).
and 0bama’s Nobel. Wait, that was authentic. But… as useless as (insert simile here)
Pretty much anyone can see the obvious things pointed out here (ie. different fonts, different style, different everything), and the “smoking gun” of “dissuading teachers from teaching science” is something that only exists in the warmists wettest of wet dreams.
“WE” (ie. skeptics) actually WANT teachers to teach Science. Science is something completely different from anything to do with AGW doctrine, so fittingly championed by a divinity school dropout and his favorite hockey team.
Science teaches us to question things, to adjust a hypothesis when observation no longer matches, that correlation is NOT causation, that an average is supposed to include current data, not just ideal data from some arbitrarily defined past dataset, that messing with real-world data to create a predetermined result is wrong, that adjusting historical data to match a hypothesis is criminal, and on and on.

February 16, 2012 12:32 am

It will be interesting to see how long it takes for this to unwind. It doesn’t feel like it will have a long shelf life.
Anthony have you setup a dedicated pay-pal donation for the funding of this project yet? I believe that quit a few people would like to donate to help “Free The Graphics”. Just a Thought.
Good Luck, and know that faked documents vs real ones, is noticeable to the average person once they get a chance to see the story develop.

Alan Wilkinson
February 16, 2012 12:33 am

Question: are there any facts in the faked memo which could not have been extracted from the other documents or otherwise publicly known?

February 16, 2012 12:34 am

Is it just me or do all the letters written by warmists have poor sentence structure, grammar and punctuation?

Ian_UK
February 16, 2012 12:37 am

“The ”2012 Climate Strategy” is the purported “smoking gun” that provides commentary and context missing from the other factual documents.” – just like the “45 minutes” dossier issued by the Labour government here in the UK. They never learn. The poor writing also suggests a younger person, a result of the drop in educational standards in recent years.

February 16, 2012 12:45 am

Sandy on February 16, 2012 at 12:24 am said:
James Delingpole will almost certainly run with this. Supports his Watermelons book too.
Should be most entertaining.
————
Prepare for a shock, he’s endorsing Obama instead :
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100137740/why-im-rooting-for-barack-obama/

Latimer Alder
February 16, 2012 12:47 am

I agree that this is a fake. Leaving aside the technical stuff, it just doesn’t have the ‘look and feel’ that such a real document on such a topic would have, The other exhibits show that Heartland’s internal workings are pretty professional, that they have a house style, that they are used to being exact in their work and run their office in an organised way.
It is (to me at least) inonceivable that a senior staff member would write such an important document (for if real it would be the strategic plan) for internal consumption in a style so far removed from the norm.
But we must assume that the faker believed that their rather inept attempt at a forgery would be taken at face value. What can this tell us about his/her identity?
1. They are not at all familiar with the ways, habits and mindset of senior staff in any institution. The ‘ambience’ is wrong, the phrasing is wrong, the general tone of the document is wrong for the way those guys work. Compare and contrast the fake with the thoroughly researched and argued real ‘Fundraising Plan’ to see the difference.
2. We can rule out any of the established pro-AGW groups like Greenpeace or WWF or those sort of guys. They may be very misguided, but they are not naive. They would do a professional job that would last more than 24 hours of scrutiny.
3. There is (I think) no factual detail in the fake that cannot be gleaned from the other released documents. No further supporting detail, no ‘mood music’. It is, in essence, just a rehash of the other documents with a supposedly disobliging commentary added to it. We can conclude that this is unlikely to come from a Heartland insider or disgruntled employee – unless at a very junior level like security staff, cleaner or janitor.
4. The faker is familiar with the ‘Climate Wars’. And some of the phrasing betrays their own position ‘We pay to undermine the official UN IPCC reports’ is a tell. As is ‘other contributions….from corporations whose interests are threatened by climate policies’. And of course ‘two key points that are effective at dissuading teachers from teaching science’.
I’d guess (no surprises here) that the faker is to the far side of the pro green, anti corporation side of the debate.
5. The wording and phrasing seems to be (though wrong for the supposed purpose) consistent throughout. This is not a document that has had multiple editors, or at least had had one overriding editor to impose the uniform style. But my feeling is that it was done by one individual
6. The faker must have assumed that he would get away with it – that his fake would be accepted. He has a high regard for his own abilities, and probably little regard for those of others.
7. This was an opportunistic fake, not a planned scam. Once he/she had obtained the real Heartland documents and found them to be thoroughly dull, they needed something to spice their adventure up a bit. And this is the result. I doubt that they spent more than a few hours constructing it, and the timeline shows that they were keen to get rid of the evidence asap. Not for them the patience of a two-year wait for Climategate 2.
My best guess is that this was done by a bright individual working alone, with no actual experience in large institutions. A ‘greenie’ with a computer and a scanner. Not an insider. One with a high regard for himself, but not a mastermind planning their every move ten years ahead.
I’ll leave others to consider what ‘profile’ this may fit, but my personal view is tending to the spotty youth working away alone in his bedroom. Or a disgruntled middle-aged loner.
Time will tell.

Alexander L.
February 16, 2012 12:47 am

Heartland Institute Budget for 2013.
Volunteer Donations: 2.1 million.
Fund-Raising Donations: 3.7 million.
Payments from news outlets after winning in courts: 92.4 million.

MarcH
February 16, 2012 12:49 am

Just wondering if the scanned image contains any incriminating information. Perhaps a lettermark?
some image processing software might come in handy.

February 16, 2012 12:50 am

A rational person would endorse someone only after they knew who the opponent was. Very strange, coming ftom Delingpole.

Scarface
February 16, 2012 12:52 am

Hi Anthony,
Since the Heartland Institute emailed the documents to the false email-account, please try the HI to forward that email to you so you can compare the original documents with the published ones. The truth will come out very quickly!

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