From the Weather is not climate unless we say it is department: Over at Climate Progress, paid propagandist Joe Romm wails about “journalistic malpractice” from Michael Mann’s words in a tweet:
The wailing (Jan 31st and again Feb 4th) was because the LA Times didn’t use the words “global warming” or “climate change” in a story about the mild winter in the USA. But Romm and Mann both ignore the much bigger story of a bitterly cold winter in Europe with snow reaching into northern Africa which has caused nearly three hundred deaths. Conversely, there doesn’t seem to be any deaths associated with the mild winter in the USA that Romm and Mann are wailing about. You can decide who’s committing “journalistic malpractice”.
Rutgers Snow Lab has the current NH snow extent:
Romm’s buddy, Dr. Jeff Masters puts the temperature departure in Europe and Alaska in perspective with the continental USA:
And here’s a CNN story from today about the severe winter weather in Europe:
Situation ‘tragic’ as winter weather blankets Europe (Snow Reported as far south as Algeria in Northern Africa)
By the CNN Wire Staff
updated 12:23 PM EST, Sun February 5, 2012
London (CNN) — Heavy snow left several Italian villages paralyzed and without power as winter weather and cold temperatures spread across Europe, the mayor of one village said. Many of the 32 villages in the Aniene Valley, near Rome, lost electricity on Friday when an electric pylon fell because of the snow, said Piero Moscardini, mayor of Vallinfreda. The valley, home to about 50,000 people, has received some 100 cm (39 inches) of snow, Moscardini said. “It’s the worst snow since 1956,” he said. “The situation is tragic. We need the Army to save us.”
Ambulances cannot traverse the roads, he said, and some villagers cannot reach their stables to feed livestock. Meanwhile, deaths continued to increase from the cold. In Romania, four people died on Saturday and another six on Sunday, authorities said. A total of 34 people have died since the cold snap began in late January. Nineteen national roads and one highway remained closed on Sunday. More than 30 cities and villages are isolated, authorities said, and power outages were reported in 200 cities and villages. More than 3,000 employees belonging to the Interior Ministry were involved in rescue operations, as hundreds sought refuge in temporary shelters and hundreds more were hospitalized because of hypothermia.
In Poland, TVN Poland said a total of 53 people have died, eight of them in the past 24 hours. The victims are mainly homeless people, according to the report. Heathrow Airport, one of the world’s busiest international airports, canceled about half of its flights Sunday, its owner said Sunday — about 260 more flights than it expected to cancel as of the night before. Between two and four inches of snow fell on London overnight, as the British capital became the latest European city to be hit by winter weather wending its way west. Drivers in both London and Rome will need to worry about ice as temperatures rise slightly, then fall again to below freezing, CNN meteorologist Tom Sater said Sunday.
Full story here
People stand in snow in front of the Colosseum on Saturday, February 4, in Rome.
A boy and his mother skate on the partly frozen Elbe River as the skyline of the eastern German city of Dresden is silhouetted in the background on Thursday, February 2. A cold snap kept Europe in its icy grip, pushing the death toll past 150 as countries from Italy to Ukraine struggled to cope with temperatures that reached record lows in some places.
A man pets a dog next to frozen sea waters in Constanta, Romania, on Wednesday, February 1. Temperatures plunged to -34 degrees Celsius (-29 degrees Fahrenheit) in central Romania, where eight people died due to cold-related causes, according to local media.
Freshly plowed snow frames a road in Bucharest, Romania, on Friday, January 27.
iReporter Cosmin Stan sent in this photo from Bucharest, Romania, on Thursday, January 26. “The problem was not the quantity of the snow, but the strong winds,” he told CNN.
There seems to have been a lot of warmCold in Europe and Asia and Western North America and Australia and South America and Africa over the last few years. These are Regional changes confined to only Europe and Asia and Western North America and Australia and South America and Africa, and thus are not Global warmCooling indicators.
Don’t confuse weather with climate.
Weather is anything that involves warmCold or warmCooling in general.
Climate is almost everything else including: Drought, Flood, High Wind, No Wind, Tornados, Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Forest Fires, above Average Temperatures.
The media (and the climate scientologists) linked the heat wave in Russia in 2010 to Global Warming (climate) but they are not linking this warmCold snap in Europe to anything other then a spot of bad luck (weather). This media presentation illustrates the difference between climate and weather.
Climate often includes Arctic Sea Ice (which was decreasing until 2007).
Climate Does Not include Antarctic Sea Ice (which has been above average for years) or Global Sea Ice (which is also above average) or Ocean temperatures or the Sun or any actual measured data from nature taken before 1970 or after 1998.
Snow in Rome? Now that is something.
…and all of that means what? Here in above normal Nebraska we finally got a storm that produced some measurable snow — about 10″, but I suspect that was a radar estimate because all the pavements are/were well above freezing and much of the snowfall melted quickly. As it was, I had about 5″ of very heavy wet snow in my driveway. I’m glad I have a two-stage snow thrower; it was hard enough shoveling the spots the snow thrower can’t reach. Not that much cold with the passing of the low pressure system either. Today is a pretty moderate day: it’s cloudy and the temperature did not crack 32F, but IR coming through the clouds produced considerable melting anyway.
Brrrrrrr! Reminds me of The Big Freeze in UKLand in 1962/3. Much toastier in Southern Tasmania. It’s rather nice having been one of the “rats leaving a sinking ship” as my mother so wisely put it in 1965.
Mr. Mann, who hasn’t displayed much in the way of intellectual depth so far, now succumbs to “some temperatures are more important than other temperatures” thinking. Fact is that the winter in Alaska has been brutal. IMO, the failure to mention global cooling in most news stories constitutes a greater journalistic malpractice — people are dying.
Shows how Romm and Mann cherry pick, no mention of all the deaths in Europe, maybe we don’t count as much as Americans?
But then, they would spin it anyway they could, despite the fact that here, cold kills more than heat,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16855184
Ironically, all of my tutorials with students have been cancelled tomorrow! Reason? Too much snow and ice in my part of Southern England! At least it gives me time to catch up with my reading.
[snip – blog policy violation – Anthony]
Meanwhile, back at the (post-soviet) ranch…
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/02/03/russian-gas-under-pressure/
Cmon Dr Mann, playing the local weather game? Et tu??? I am surprised as a climatologist not being aware of the rapid drop off in Global temps, . here so you dont get accused of what is going on around the entire globe.
http://policlimate.com/climate/cfsr_t2m_2011.png
notice the trend now is DOWN since the PDO flip in 2008, no longer just leveled off as it had done since the great nino of the late 90s, a product of the warm PDO. BTW There will be a nino response later this year and winter, like 09-10, and I suspect once Hansen wakes up he will declare temp spiking super nino is on the way. As per cold PDO’s The globe will warm a bit and the US will freeze next winter. Will you then blame warming for the snow? As a climatologist you should know if you want to think locally YOU BETTER LOOK GLOBALLY ( interesting in that all the studies I read out of China find no hockey sticks there with the proxy tree rings.. but we will stick with the current global cold and making sure you are aware of this drop off. I am sure someone at PSU will ask him about the rapid enso response down like this globally in your talk this week, so you see I am trying to help.
Retweeting Heidi Cullen blaming AGW for earthquakes and Irene.. that was kind of weird too.
Was AGW responsible for Irene weakening and not being as bad as Carol, 1944, 1938, etc.
I believe Dr Cullen thinks the earth is really “pissed off” if I remember that.
.
Hopefully we have not destroyed our reliable energy capacity because we are going to need it in the coming decades. It takes more to heat, than to cool homes and business. As I said 4 years ago, and will continue to say, we will back to temps of the 70s by 2030. Unfortunately, those kind of temps need alot of energy to fuel an economy… the kind that people can make money so they can help with university professors getting grants to fund their studies. Doesnt grow on tree rings, you know
again check the link out , so you dont get ambushed using the warm US winter ( btw likely to change and last into March) when the rest of the globe is cold
About 8ins of snow fell here in East Anglia yesterday and shows no sign of thawing. I’m glad of it as the flies had started hatching and I’d been killing mosquitoes all winter! It’s been very mild here til now – we hadn’t even had a hard a frost and my geraniums only stopped flowering in late January. It’s tragic though to see the images on TV of the homeless in Eastern Europe inc Russia surrounded by all that snow and ice, and people walking past children giving no money to help them
Mild winter in the USA? Just ask the folks in Alaska.
In related News…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2096277/Global-warming-James-Delingpole-claims-green-zealots-destroying-planet.html?ito=feeds-newsxml
It is now winter in the UK as expected for this time of the year.
Unfortunately a couple of weeks ago crops, plants in general thought it was spring!
We’ve had a field of rape seed in flower – nothing to pollinate it and now wrecked by cold.
European wheat fields are usually covered by snow early in winter but it was too hot therefore no snow. Now -20C therefore dead wheat.
Some experts make silly predictions off the cuff which then get endlessly repeated. It will always be cold in winter (its he angle of the sun!) if its cold and the atmosphere holds enough water then it is likely to snow rather than rain – simple really!
We just had
-9C Friday
30mm snow by 9pm Saturday,
now 5pm suday +5C and 1mm snow left. Not even time to build a snow man!
This is all called weather not climate!
[SNIP: Policy. -REP]
I love you Joe (Bastardi)!
It is disappointing that Dr. Mann would tweet something as stupid as this. But then, doesn’t it really display his understanding concerning climate?
As my Grandma used to say “The proof is in the pudding”.
Well, Dr. Mann, by his tweet, gives us more proof of his lack of knowledge concerning climate verses weather.
This demonstrates the sorry state that Climate Science has become, a very sorry state.
Mann and Romm ought to know the meaning of “global” by now. I certainly do not agree with the idea of a global average temperature but they seem to like it. So why, when Mann’s home state of PA is having a warmer winter, doesn’t he calculate a global average temperature rather than proclaim AGW based on US temps?. When the rest of the northern hemisphere is freezing I think it negates the warm winter PA is having. And it’s not even unprecedented. The winter of 1916 was even warmer in PA.
This also raises the question?……..
How in the world did Dr. Mann everrrrrrrrrr get past peer review? Is peer review now the definition of sloppy acceptance of consensus?
@Patrick Guinness: I’ll see your snow in Rome, and I’ll raise you an Algeria.
I have to ask the question, as I don’t know the answer to it:
What is Dr. Mann’s PHD in? Surely it can’t be climate related…..it just can’t be.
Don’t confuse weather with climate.
We don’t. But we do observe that the global January anomaly is pretty low.
Oh. I see Joe Bastardi has made the same point.
it is more impressive the snow in Majorca. Second largest snowfall on records. The largest one happened in 1959. Majorca is an island in the balearic archipelago further south than Rome.
http://www.abc.es/20120204/deportes-futbol/abci-nieve-palma-201202041624.html
It seems those two clowns (R&M) did not get the memo that there was a LaNina this year…
It would seem Joe that Money DOES GROW on tree rings for those guys… but the golden cow is about to turn to lead for these buffoons.
I’m getting the feeling that the MSM has finally clued into being conned for all these years, by the various Warmistas, made to look like idiots, made to carry their fear mongering water, magnify their boiling planet hysteria and they figure it is now time to pay back Mikey & the rest of Team.
Payback from the media can be a very nasty experience once they turn on you.
As the old saying goes . . . never pick a fight with someone who buys ink by the truckload
‘Don’t confuse weather with climate’., the last bits missing it should read
Don’t confuse weather with climate, expect when such a confusion can be used to support ‘the cause’ then its OK.
Here in the Netherlands there was a meeting today of the 22 departments that make up the “Koninklijke Vereniging De Friesche Elf Steden”, to discuss the condition of the Ice on the canals and lakes in the province Friesland.
The last time that this happend was 15 years ago, wich resulted in the 15th Alvestêdetocht (Eleven City Ride), a 200 km long skating marathon and a rare event because since 1890 it has been organised only 15 times and another 25 times it was called off, the other 82 winters since 1890 they did not even bother to look at the condition of the ice, that if there was even ice to begin with.
In the last 50 years only 4 of them have been organised, 1963 (the worst conditions ever, of 10.000 riders only 69 made it to the finish), 1985 and 1986 where perfect, 1997 was also cold, but unlike 1963 there was hardly any snow on the ice and very mild wind.
Warmed up, it is now -6C where I am at about 58N in Sweden which seems to have the Swedish people all bundled up. The railroads up North in Sweden shut down because of the cold, the same is true for Norway.
The day is becoming long and dusty, as battle weary Roman Centurion Antony, rides along the valley of death, seeking truth. His Lorica glints in the Sun, polished to finery by his ever faithful comrade, Eschen.
Long his quest has been a Mann, committed crimes against Empire so foul, Kings would waste legions for the demise. With a heart of rose ‘n steel Antony tracks his quarry unnervingly.
Suddenly, from the corner of his eye, the centurion sees a round baldness behind a tree. Could that be a Mann. It is.
Antony charges, his mount nays high, Spatha drawn as he rushes towards his prey. Up pops a Mann from behind the tree, eyes mystified by the onslaught.
A still coolness meets the air as Antonys’ blade scalps that Mann.
Virgins, feasts and debauchery are gifts offered for the Centurions favor. Centurion Antony, a man of truth will not be victim of such grants as rides to his next conquer.
Hail Antony!
Mann did have 17 retweets.
It can be blamed on AGW. Article in Independent on Saturday on how below normal sea ice (Barents and Kara Sea) was causing the high pressure system. Apparently the models saw this coming……?
Oh, I forgot, Mike, just wait for Al to come back from Antarctica. 😛
Laugh. What else can you do at anything Mann says? Anyone silly enough to believe that global warming causes global freezing deserves only ridicule.
And don’t forget the significant flooding they’re now getting in Australia:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16866168
This has been a recurring problem in Australia for about a month now.
It seems to me as if the last 3 winters are getting worse and worse!!!! Never mind, it’s just the weather (unless it’s warmer winters, in which case it’s a SURE sign of GLOBAL WARMING).
Sarc aside, more people may die in colder winters as the governments of the world spend billions to try and cool a non-warming planet instead of spending it on blankets and food.
Why would someone like Mann and Romm want to advertise their ignorance….
This goes counter to other things they have both said.
Camburn says:
February 5, 2012 at 4:02 pm
Remember, “peer review” requires “peers”, which by definition indicates why Mann’s garbage science is accepted by… well… garbage scientists. (But hey, they get the same favorable treatment from Mann for their garbage, so they keep doing it and everybody on “The Team” is happy.)
LOL! Gladiators I salute you.
I remember snow in the Med about 2 years ago. What is going on; is THIS climate change?
You’d think anyone with a sort of scientific or technical mind would be able to put it together without knowing details of the Arctic Oscillation or similar cycles. He should be able to form a mental picture of a “blob of winter” centered on the North Pole, and should be able to visualize this year’s blob sliding less over North America and more over Eurasia than it usually does. Same size blob, just moving in a different way. That should be the starting hypothesis for a scientist; that should be the trigger for his curiosity and passion.
Instead, Comrade Mann is only passionate about maintaining absolute 100.0000000% ideological purity in 100.00000000% of media outlets. He’s more concerned with catching and punishing his minions who dare to omit his Official Magic Doctrinal Formula.
Thus proving what we already know: he’s a Stalinist tyrant, not a scientist.
Let us look back at what some senior climate scientists were saying about snow in the UK just 12 years ago…
—
Monday 20 March 2000
[Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past]
[According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.]
[David Parker, at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Berkshire, says ultimately, British children could have only virtual experience of snow. Via the internet, they might wonder at polar scenes – or eventually “feel” virtual cold.]
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
—
The Internet does not forget all the Global Warming predictions that have been made by ‘Climate Scientists;’ and that the media has published as fact. The falsifications of their predictions are legion; nature did not get the memo.
“The wailing (Jan 31st and again Feb 4th) was because the LA Times didn’t use the words “global warming” or “climate change” in a story about the mild winter in the USA.”
Well, that is very shocking indeed. The LA Times is about the worst newspaper in the USA in global warming gullibility. Or they are getting government moolah to “educate” the public on climate change. Or they have deep insecurity of being an outsider to the chattering class establishment. Whichever, they are completely entangled in global warming scams and cap and trade.
“Camburn says:
February 5, 2012 at 4:00 pm
As my Grandma used to say “The proof is in the pudding”.”
I am sure your Grandma never said that. She would have used the original, proper, quotation.
“The proof of the pudding, is in the eating”
Here around Boulder, Colorado the record snowfall for February was just broken. Records are meant to be broken. I wouldn’t call it a “year without a winter.” Climate scientist without a brain is equally asinine.
Snow in Rome is really unusual.
That said, it’s global averages, and multi-decadal trends, that define climate. Not year-by-year variation, or local effects.
January was freezingly cold with much snow in northern Japan. After a short moderate weather from yesterday to tomorrow, freezing days are coming again on Wednesday and beyond.
Where’s AGW? (though of course I know weather is not climate….).
Well actually we have had some fatalities from tornadoes that formed in the warmer air in the USA this winter.
Fred from Canuckistan says:
February 5, 2012 at 4:22 pm
Payback from the media can be a very nasty experience once they turn on you.
As the old saying goes . . . never pick a fight with someone who buys ink by the truckload.
Speaking of which, there doesn’t seem much being said about the Titantarctic Mission….
His doctoral committee is either as incompetent as he is or is hiding in shame.
I found this (a frozon auto on Lake Leman, Switzerland):
http://blogimg.goo.ne.jp/user_image/5c/7c/3af8deefdd71389decaa5478bab5b8ce.jpg
“”Speaking of which, there doesn’t seem much being said about the Titantarctic Mission….””
Slow down, we can’t handle all the Gaiety we already have.
Don’t worry, be happy, we will get to the rest soon enough.
I keep telling you guys. Anything that comes out of TWITter is a TWIT, not a tweet.
Been a nice couple of days in Western Washington. Welcome change from three weeks ago when we had a rare 9″ of snow that hung around for three days when temps were an unseasonably low mid 20s.
May I suggest the admins take another peak at comment
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/05/tragic-winter-weather-in-europe-doesnt-fit-the-mannian-narrative/#comment-885285
i don’t often see phrases like “take them out” and “genetic slag”. i think i know what they mean though.
[Reply: OK, I peeked as you suggested. And I did it during the Super Bowl, which is going above and beyond. Because interrupting the SB is far more important than thermogeddon destroying the planet. Didn’t see anything earth-shaking or actionable in those comments, although I don’t know what ‘genetic slag’ means. And maybe someone is proposing that someone ‘take them out’ to lunch.☺ In any case, we moderate lightly here, and the cited examples seem at most to be venial sins. ~dbs, mod.]
[Further Reply: The efforts of moderator dbs and myself crossed. I never over-rule his judgement, but I think I know what was meant, too. That post is snipped. -REP]
sadly they do love the name playing game……. facts don’t matter….. deaths don’t matter….. all that matters is $$$$ in funding to keep jobs going even if they produce false results……. I do detest this sport!
CLIMATE DISRUPTION…… hummmmm I thought that happened every time we had a La Nina or El Nino. But I also thought they were perfectly natural changes which occur on a semi regular basis and had done so for (perhaps) millions of years. Oh wait a minute, now I get it – you cannot tax a natural event, so you have to come up with a way of making it a devastating climate event caused by human activity, then you can tax it! It all makes perfect sense now.
http://justmeint.wordpress.com/2012/02/05/what-is-in-a-name/
Yep, this is climate change… Winter, Spring, Summer, Fall… repeat At Neuseaum.
The LA Times article was written by “Eryn Brown is a science and health writer for the LA Times.”
…..she has a whole pile of other articles that would make Mann and Romm proud
Guess the wheels are off the wagon if one of their main promoters doesn’t stick to the script…….
Saw a headline floating by on Twitter with an estimate that the cold has killed half the Ukrainian winter harvest.
https://twitter.com/#!/newsua/status/166256150638104576
Cold is not a joking matter.
“One person is dying every five minutes due to cold weather this week, as Britain reels from a winter death rate twice as high as some of the world’s coldest countries, according to the Department of Health’s Chief Medical Officer. Many of the dying are elderly. Pensioners groups described the figures as “shocking.””
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/9055933/Snow-to-fall-in-London-as-bitterly-cold-weather-grips-Britain.html
Up here in Canada, our lovely non-nonsensical bureaucrats we have up working for Environment Canada released a report that claimed Canada had a ” fairly warm winter.”
While I’m sure it was nice from their hotel room in Florida, where they most certainly wrote the report, the rest of the country was under snow, and suffering from lower-then-normal temperatures. In fact, here on the West coast, I believe cold-related fatalities are up, although we don’t have the numbers yet. (I’ve already heard of a few reports of fatalities among the homeless.)
Funny how the bureaucrats forgot to mention that.
Robert @ 4:30 PM on 2-5 –
Fifty some years ago I remember reading “Hans Brinker and the Silver Skates” (Disney also did a movie based on the story). It is one of the many stories, historical fiction and fact, I’ve read through the years detailing life during the little ice age. During that time, life for the middle class (what there were of them) and the poor was extremely hard. One of my biggest criticisms of these so-called “climate scientists” is they appear to have absolutely no idea of what has occurred on this earth during recorded history. And to me, this ignorance makes it impossible for them to correctly interpret anything that occurred in prehistoric times. It also shows how little awareness people like Mann and others have of the hardship cold imposes on the poorer sectors of our population.
Snow in Italy?
Heck, it’s snowing in North Africa, south of the Mediterranean!
Here is a picture from Tunisia, taken this Saturday (yesterday).
http://www.tunisienumerique.com/meteo-tunisie-20-centimetres-de-neige-a-ain-draham/101733
Is this the Gore effect? Did Al go to Tunis recently to lie on the beach?
(A maiden screams: “Help! He’s dying! Push him back in the water!”)
[Moderator’s Note: the efforts of Moderator dbs and myself kinda got crossed. That comment is gone. -REP]
From this document produced by DEFRA (Department for Environmental, Food and Rural Affairs), a UK government department,
that assesses the impacts of climate change in the UK.
A warmer climate will result in between 5,700 and 36,000 fewer winter deaths JUST IN THE UK.
Anyone that’s been paying attention knows that the mild winter in the US AND the cold winter in Europe are both the result of climate change. The only thing that isn’t due to climate change, apparently, is normal weather. But normal weather doesn’t make the news.
I couldn’t help but laugh seeing all the snow in the UK because we all know that it doesn’t snow in the UK anymore (except for the last 3 winters of course!).
Snow in Rome???
Good; for a moment or two I thought that seriously questionable material was going to be allowed to stand un-rebutted.
And you just know how I hate that unbased, mind-fluff, con – spira – cy – based stuff …
.
What is it with these people. We have to see several (like a decade or two) weird winters before we can say anything about what is going on with climate. Blocking highs happen- subpolar jets get diverted north or south of their normal trajectories and warm or cold ensues. That’s weather – if you don’t like it wait, it will change. Same thing in summer, a blocking high moves the subtropical jet north or south and WEATHER gets weird. It would be laughable if it weren’t such a well known COMMON event.
Now as for those global trends with the negative temperature numbers, they may mean everything, something, nothing, or have no relevance to anything whatsoever. I think we need to keep refining our measuring techniques and watch. There are no tipping points (the honest geologic data indicates it has been warmer, colder, higher CO2, lower CO2, almost completely covered in ice, and completely ice free), so if the data later becomes clearer (without manipulation) that something NEEDS to be done we can do it. Until then, the CAGW folks can all take long walks off short docks into deep water (preferably partially frozen) for all I care. They ceased to be scientists the moment they began being politicians demanding global authoritarian governance.
1a. Here in our corner of the northestern inland area of Ohio we haven’t
had a record high or a record low temperature for roughly the past
eight or more months.
1b. Here in our corner of the northestern inland area of Ohio we have
had record amounts of average monthly rainfall for roughly the past
eight or so months.
2a. The BBC has done a really good job of covering the big chill in eastern
Europe, especially the Ukraine this last week. Without editorializing about
global “anything” and sans comments from the usual hockey stick supporters,
they have repeatedly mentioned a number of European records of the past 27
years for cold and snow being buried by the current Arctic cold weather outbreak.
3. In view of the recent world wide weather news and any implications
all these short term reports might have for true scientific climate observations,
Mike Mann and Joe Romm seem sadly and perhaps intentionally myopic.
Mike and Joe seem to be short sighted as well as nearsighted at the same time.
seem terribly myopic.
While one has to be careful not to take localised extremes and claim them as proof for or against Global Warming, the sum of all the events seem to show the Global Warming theory is becoming shaky. Last year, Auckland (New Zealand) experienced snow for first time since 1939. This summer New Zealand had snow falls in the South Island. They are, while not unheard of, not a usual occurrence. The summer in the North Island has been colder and wetter. As we are currently experiencing a La Nina pattern, more rain was expected. However La Nina conditions should also bring warmer than normal temperatures and while I have not seen the figures I think that has not been the case. Sydney, on the other side of the Tasman, experienced the coldest first week of summer since 1960.
J. Felton says:
February 5, 2012 at 6:07 pm
Up here in Canada, our lovely non-nonsensical bureaucrats we have up working for Environment Canada released a report that claimed Canada had a ” fairly warm winter.”
While I’m sure it was nice from their hotel room in Florida, where they most certainly wrote the report, the rest of the country was under snow, and suffering from lower-then-normal temperatures. In fact, here on the West coast, I believe cold-related fatalities are up, although we don’t have the numbers yet. (I’ve already heard of a few reports of fatalities among the homeless.)
Funny how the bureaucrats forgot to mention that.
j. Felton,
I also live in Canada (Southern Ontario). My pond froze on Dec-18th (about 10 days later than normal). There is no snow on the ground (very unusual). It has been a very mild winter.
Plus you live in the Florida of Canada so go back to your roses. It never snows in Vancouver – well unless you call 2″ a snow fall.
Seriously, you can’t walk outside your house and summarize the world’s weather by what you feel. Plus I miss Joe Fortes so I may be grumpy.
If you want info on temperature trends in the NH winter look at the AO index. It has been positive most of the winter, hence the relatively warm winter in the NH up to about two weeks ago. Two weeks ago it turned negative. This allows the upper level winds to dip south in the NH bringing cold to somewhere in the NH. Unfortunately for Europe, it seems to be bringing arctic air to them at the moment.
European cold snap, 2012: 300 deaths
European heat wave, 2003: 35,000 deaths.
Do they write the script as they go along?
In Jan 2010 it the big freeze in Europe was within natural variability as reported in the Independent in Jan 2010:
“The Met Office’s Barry Gromett said December and January’s cold weather was “within the bounds of natural variability” within a global trend of rising temperatures – in which 2009 is set to be the fifth warmest year on record.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/no-conflict-between-big-freeze-and-climate-change-1858530.html
Now it’s the melting ice in the Arctic:
“A growing number of experts believe complex wind patterns are being changed because melting Arctic sea ice has exposed huge swaths of normally frozen ocean to the atmosphere above.”
“The current weather pattern fits earlier predictions of computer models for how the atmosphere responds to the loss of sea ice due to global warming,” said Professor Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. “The ice-free areas of the ocean act like a heater as the water is warmer than the Arctic air above it. This favours the formation of a high-pressure system near the Barents Sea, which steers cold air into Europe.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/science-behind-the-big-freeze-is-climate-change-bringing-the-arctic-to-europe-6358928.html
Looks like Professor Stefan Rahmsdorf has all the bases covered now as we can expect more European big freezes. Wonder if his models can tell us when we will get another US big freeze, when the La Nina will end, when the next one will occur, when we can expect the next drought in Australia and what the English Summer will be like?
The Cold PDO gave us back to back La NIna, coupled with the low solar output which funnels the cold Arctic air down to lower regions in the Northern Hemisphere, the result is all before us. Changes to ozone in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere influence the planetary wave that breaks up the polar vortex which in turn shapes the AO and jet streams.
The AO has been positive this winter which gives some areas warm conditions, the QBO has been holding back the planetary wave since early last year but has now turned, which should make a negative AO more likely (neg AO at present), which should give us more massive winter conditions over Western Europe and parts of the USA.
There is a good chance for a triple back to back La Nina next season. Watch the Nth Pacific warm pool in the next 6 months.
http://tinyurl.com/2dg9u22/?q=node/224
Scientist: ‘Gulf Loop Current is broke’ -“Mini Ice Age” on the way Europe – Jul 21, 2010
http://youtu.be/syD80ez0d-M
“The gulf loop current is broke. “They have finally done something they can’t fix”. Take appropriate action (do not panic). This “climate change” will take place in 1-2 years, so there is not much time. God help us all and pray for love and peace to all life.
Hard science, current data shows *loop current broken*and worsening. Report by National Institute
Nuclear Physics etc… Links:
http://www.colinandrews.net/GulfStreamBroken.html
http://www.associazionegeofisica.it/OilSpill.pdf
http://www.cleancaribbean.org/docs/COREXIT_9500_UsCuEg.PDF
http://argo.colorado.edu/~realtime/welcome/ “
J Fischer says:
February 5, 2012 at 7:14 pm
European cold snap, 2012: 300 deaths
European heat wave, 2003: 35,000 deaths.
———————————————————-
It is an interesting read, the Europeans who died in the 2003 heat wave. It says more about how people treat the elderly than anything to do with the weather.
Andrew30: Don’t confuse weather with climate.
JF: I agree with you 100% on that on. But what about the” Punters in the cold”? What do they think? Maybe saving face is one of the reasons for the religious fever attached to people who believe that CAGW is the new holy gospel. Who knows? I have never managed to understand fanaticism and properly never will. Now very importantly on that point of face. All this cold weather has given the people who more or less believed in CAGW a way out. “Without losing face”.
Just my 2 bob’s worth.
What is to be feared the most is not the cold or the heat of La Nina dominant patterns, but the drought in major food growing areas. We had better be storing up. In particular, wheat and other dry land products that translate into basic food stuff need to be stored up.
The version I like is a new one (an “incongruous conflation”): “The devil is in the pudding.”
RE: “King of Cool says:
February 5, 2012 at 7:15 pm
Do they write the script as they go along?”
The answer is, “Yes.”
I’m pretty sure that ice-free water in the arctic would not create high pressure, but rather low pressure. Ice-free water is warmer, and causes air to rise, which created an area of lower pressure which the rising air has just departed from. High pressure, on the other hand, is created by cooled air sinking, and pressing down.
Therefore, when they state, “The ice-free areas of the ocean act like a heater as the water is warmer than the Arctic air above it. This favours the formation of a high-pressure system near the Barents Sea, which steers cold air into Europe,” I can’t help but feel they are making it up as they go along.
I am thinking of writing a parody of this sort of “science,” making things up as I go along, as a joke for WUWT readers.
After a relatively mild January here in the UK, the winter weather has now brought us sea ice off the English Channel coast at Sandbanks, Dorset – see the clip below:
The Independent: Saturday 04 February 2012 Steve Connor
Science behind the big freeze: is climate change bringing the Arctic to Europe?
A loss of sea ice could be a cause of the bitter winds that have swept across the UK in the past week, weather experts say.
Really Steve! Please say more? Notice the word “is” and the “could” and excuse me pal but who are the so called weather experts. Oh must be Michael E. Mann
Then click here http://thecomingcrisis.blogspot.com/2012/02/science-behind-big-freeze-is-climate.html and then have a read and a good giggle then click at the end “Read More”
Funny eh? Watermelons at the “”The Coming Crisis”
Pamela Gray says: February 5, 2012 at 7:36 pm
What is to be feared the most is not the cold or the heat of La Nina dominant patterns, but the drought in major food growing areas. We had better be storing up. In particular, wheat and other dry land products that translate into basic food stuff need to be stored up.
Agree in part Pamela – whether dought or cold, we need to store adequate grain.
Let’s talk predictive track record.
None of the IPCC’s scary predictions of runaway global warming have materialized.
We predicted in 2002 that global cooling would occur, as follows:
“If solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2 (as we said), we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”
Stay tuned… Faites vos jeux!
Kyoto hot air can’t replace fossil fuels
Allan M.R. MacRae
Calgary Herald
September 1, 2002
The Kyoto Accord on climate change is probably the most poorly crafted piece of legislative incompetence in recent times.
First, the science of climate change, the treaty’s fundamental foundation, is not even remotely settled. There is even strong evidence that human activity is not causing serious global warming.
The world has been a lot warmer and cooler in the past, long before we ever started burning fossil fuels. From about 900 to 1300 AD, during the Medieval Warm Period or Medieval Optimum, the Earth was warmer than it is today.
Temperatures are now recovering from the Little Ice Age that occurred from about 1300 to 1900, when the world was significantly cooler. Cold temperatures are known to have caused great misery — crop failures and starvation were common. Also, Kyoto activists’ wild claims of more extreme weather events in response to global warming are simply unsupported by science. Contrary to pro-Kyoto rhetoric, history confirms that human society does far better in warm periods than in cooler times.
Over the past one thousand years, global temperatures exhibited strong correlation with variations in the sun’s activity. This warming and cooling was certainly not caused by manmade variations in atmospheric CO2, because fossil fuel use was insignificant until the 20th century.
Temperatures in the 20th century also correlate poorly with atmospheric CO2 levels, which increased throughout the century. However, much of the observed warming in the 20th century occurred before 1940, there was cooling from 1940 to 1975 and more warming after 1975. Since 80 per cent of manmade CO2 was produced after 1940, why did much of the warming occur before that time? Also, why did the cooling occur between 1940 and 1975 while CO2 levels were increasing? Again, these warming and cooling trends correlate well with variations in solar activity.
Only since 1975 does warming correlate with increased CO2, but solar activity also increased during this period. This warming has only been measured at the earth’s surface, and satellites have measured little or no warming at altitudes of 1.5 to eight kilometres. This pattern is inconsistent with CO2 being the primary driver for warming.
If solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.
The last big Ice Age, when Canada was covered by a one-kilometre-thick ice sheet, ended only about 10,000 years ago, and another big one could start at any time in the next 5,000 years. Mankind clearly didn’t cause the rise and fall of the last big Ice Age, and we may not have any ability to control the next big one either. …
Allan MacRae says:
February 5, 2012 at 6:10 pm
Snow in Italy?
“Heck, it’s snowing in North Africa, south of the Mediterranean!
Here is a picture from Tunisia, taken this Saturday (yesterday).
http://www.tunisienumerique.com/meteo-tunisie-20-centimetres-de-neige-a-ain-draham/101733
Is this the Gore effect? Did Al go to Tunis recently to lie on the beach?”
No, he had a much bigger job to do, freezing the Antarctic where temps run 15 degrees below average since his ship arrived.
Gore’s Antarctic friend needs your help with his tomb
http://motls.blogspot.com/2012/02/gores-antarctic-friend-needs-your-help.html
We did have snow in Thredbo (Australia) this summer.
http://www.news.com.au/travel/news/a-snowy-summer-for-thredbo/story-e6frfq80-1226242343088
It has happened before, but not often.
@TokyoBoy
That frozen car photo from Switzerland is real, but apparently it is from Jan. 2005:
http://www.hoax-slayer.com/ice-storm-photos.shtml
@ Steve from Rockwood
Glad to hear you had a milder winter in Ontario. Most of the country didn’t. Have relatives all over who got pounded by the snow. Out West, we’ve had a rising amount of snow in the last couple winters. (And yes, I’m aware it’s still nothing to complain of when compared to the rest of the Canada.)
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/science-behind-the-big-freeze-is-climate-change-bringing-the-arctic-to-europe-6358928.html
“The current weather pattern fits earlier predictions of computer models for how the atmosphere responds to the loss of sea ice due to global warming,” said Professor Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. “The ice-free areas of the ocean act like a heater as the water is warmer than the Arctic air above it. This favours the formation of a high-pressure system near the Barents Sea, which steers cold air into Europe
JF:Oh I am so sorry my page did not load: See it is on the computer model. So it has to be true!
Hmm “Climate Attribution?? Maybe?
Video of Rome under the snow
http://video.repubblica.it/dossier/neve-emergenza-maltempo/roma-il-video-dall-elicottero-della-polizia-1/87369/85762
Some quotes on this thread:
“Last year, Auckland (New Zealand) experienced snow for first time since 1939.”
“Even North Africa has been affected by the chill, with children who had never seen snow playing snowball fights in high-lying districts of the Algerian capital Algiers. Roads to several villages in the mountainous Kabylia region near the coast were cut by snow.”
“According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”
Which places did Dr. David Viner have in mind? : -)
Those really wanting to understand how the Arctic-like cold could be shifted so far south should review this video:
http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/36000/36972/npole_gmao_200901-02.mov
This video was from 2009, but the exact same thing happened a few week or so ago. Some may recall the large “bubble” of warm air that was forced up from the troposphere into the Arctic stratosphere a few weeks back. It was even commented about here on WUWT.. Arctic stratospheric temperatures soared, and, more important, the normally closed Arctic vortex broke down and forced cold air down over latitudes further south.
Of course, Arctic Sea ice extent continues below normal, as some areas of the Arctic have been quite warm this winter (not unlike the past few winters). Of particular concern is the dramatically low sea ice in areas such as the Barents sea (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.6.html) and Kara Sea (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.7.html) which are incredibly low in sea ice for this time of year, and the perpetual high pressure that is associated with this open arctic water is forcing a lot of of the colder air south. In a very real sense, the poor people of Europe are getting the weather and especially the cold that the regions near the Barents and Kara seas should be getting. .
Looks like the diabolical Koch Brothers and Evil Big Oil have finally perfected their Weapons of Mass Cooling, and are using them to punish the EU and fool the public into ignoring the Planetary Fever. Poor Mann and the other Climate Champions, operating in a world built on impeccable integrity and transparency and pure goodness, never expected such a low trick and never saw this coming. Now they are dazed and confused. Since they are working so tirelessly to save us, we really should try to be nice to them. Maybe put them in a home.
If I had 5 cents for every time alarmists associated weather events with climate change I’d be retired a rich man in Tahiti sipping mint juleps in a beach chair under a white canvas beach tent by the supposedly unprecedented rising sea side.
KR says:
February 5, 2012 at 5:25 pm
. . . “That said, it’s global averages, and . . . trends . . .”
Please desist!
Try something like — ‘long term pattern of characteristics’ — and then list those characteristics shown to be important. Pattern is an important concept in this. Before lots of weather stations, the patterns of vegetation were used to draw boundaries and explain climate.
http://www.blueplanetbiomes.org/climate.htm
[“This includes the region’s general pattern of weather conditions, seasons and weather extremes like hurricanes, droughts, or rainy periods. Two of the most important factors determining an area’s climate are air temperature and precipitation.”]
In contrast, put one foot into a bucket of ice water and the other foot into a bucket of hot water. On average you should be very comfortable. I will spare you the example of the average human’s appendages.
R. Gates: “and the perpetual high pressure that is associated with this open arctic water is forcing a lot of of the colder air south.” The perpetual high pressure seems to be gone now: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t30_nh_f00.gif
Quiet sun this past week. How’s the cloud cover?
In Sweden we have had -42.7C (Kvikkjokk) and with inofficial readings of -48C.
Lowest ever recorded temp is -52.6C
Joe Bastardi says:
February 5, 2012 at 3:38 pm
. . . (btw likely to change and last into March) when the rest of the globe is cold ”
Are you going to throw this thought out and let it hang?
I don’t disagree with you. However, once in awhile I check the CPC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
and their One and Three month maps seem to be following a standard “repeat” progression based on multiple past-year after effects of ENSO (I think). That’s somewhat like shooting a rifle at Mr. Moon, and based on the first hundred yards of trajectory, predicting a hit.
So, Joe, say a little more.
Heh,
Climate is what you expect, Weather is what you get.
Maybe, just maybe, predicting the “climate” is actually a really HARD problem, so those folks with some modicum of self respect don’t attempt it……….
Cheers, Kevin.
Joe Bastardi said:
” As I said 4 years ago, and will continue to say, we will back to temps of the 70s by 2030.”
——–
Doubtful, at least not on a decadal basis. Granted, we could get a few really big volcanic eruptions around that time frame, that, if one was cherry picking data, you could say, “look, we’re as cool now as the 1970s!” But on a longer-term basis decade over decade and the century looks to be showing warming, not cooling.
R. Gates says:
February 5, 2012 at 9:14 pm
Those really wanting to understand how the Arctic-like cold could be shifted so far south should review this video:
You have it all wrong. The SSW event is not caused by a bubble of hot air from the Arctic zone. Planetary waves that travel up from the equator are allowed to travel to the northern polar vortex, if the conditions are right. The QBO is a big factor that has just entered its easterly phase which is now complementary to the planetary wave. It is thought changing ozone levels in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere also encourage this phenomenon. The weak science behind this media article suggests warm water in the Arctic (hard to imagine) creates warm rising air that forms a high pressure zone. Normally warm rising air creates a low pressure zone?
R. Gates says: February 5, 2012 at 10:26 pm ……
Maybe you should quit being a worrier, for your mental health.
Apparently, the cold spell in Europe is a consequence of global warming: Open water in the arctic north of Europe directs cold air south. And we all know what the lack of ice in the arctic has been caused by.
Since the winter before this cold spell was fairly mild most places in Europe, this cold spell will make the winter pretty normal on average. So what we really can conclude is that global warming also causes normal temperatures.
Actually, the statement “global warming causes ” can be quite correct. Everything in weather is connected.
Michael E Mann certainly likes his split infinitives. Is there anything at which he is competent?
NASA: Stratosphere Influences Winter Weather
http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/36000/36972/npole_gmao_200901-02.mov
Polar vortex spliting appears to be affected by intensity of geomagnetic field.
Siberia field is getting stronger, Hudson bay weaker. Strong field drives the winter temperatures down.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC1.htm
Sea ice looks similar to 2007 sea ice coverage. Was it cold in Europe then?
I made a comment at the following that includes a picture:
http://channel9.msdn.com/Forums/Coffeehouse/Slip-Sliding-Away-The-Joys-of-Global-Cooling/7639196083ac4af79a889fee0065df07
If the cold which hit not only Europe, but for a while most of Eurasia, was due to warm Arctic sea water, I think we have a clear case of negative feedback…
Sorry, sort of off topic, but over at Gocomics it looks like Garry Trudeau has started a week long blitz at Global Warming Skeptics, or maybe just this one strip. http://www.gocomics.com/doonesbury/
Maybe someone could post a few of the ‘facts’ to counteract his strawman facts?
More problems for the EU Warm Plan:
“BEIJING – China’s airlines are not allowed to pay a charge on carbon emissions imposed by the Europe Union (EU), and neither to hike freights nor to add other fees accordingly without government permission, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) said Monday.
The CAAC said in a statement that it had been authorized by the State Council, China’s Cabinet, to notify the ban to all domestic airlines.
The statement said the EU’s decision to charge flights into and out of EU airports for carbon emission “runs contrary to relevant principles of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the international civil aviation regulations.”
The EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme, which has taken effect on January 1, is one of the widest-reaching measures adopted by any country or regional bloc to regulate emissions of greenhouse gases blamed for climate change. It is estimated that around 4,000 airlines will pay the EU for their carbon emissions.”
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012-02/06/content_14543325.htm
No end in sight here in the Balkans. It’s snowing again today and the temperatures didn’t increase at all. It’s -15 to -10°C and it will snow tomorrow as well. On Wednesday it will stop snowing and it will get colder (-20 °C)! Then on Friday, it will start snowing again. Most places already have ~1 m of snow, some 2 m. Thousands are cut off in villages.
Gates,
If you check out the sea-ice graphs, you’ll notice that recent records show the least amount of ice in early February occurred in the year 2006. However 2006 was also the year that had the most ice in September.
If you check out the Navy animation at http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrf_nowcast_anim30d.gif
you get an idea of how the ice is moving. Any place the “red ice” is moving towards “blue” ice, ice that is moving is piling up against ice which is not. This creates pressure ridges as big as 30 feet tall, which also extend as far as 270 feet downwards, (because 90% of an iceburg is under water.)
Conversely, any place you see “red” ice moving away from “blue” ice, a “lead is formed, which is open water, even in the pitch dark during the dead of winter. These leads swiftly freeze over, as even during a “warm spell” it is thirty below.
If you check out the arctic temps at http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php you will notice there have been a lot of “warm spells” this winter. This is a sign of “mixing” caused by wind. When it is calm it is colder, because the cold air can sink and settle when it is cold. The wind is a sign of a positive AO.
The first half of this winter was “warm” and windy at the pole, which means there were more than usual pressure ridges and leads formed. I doubt the difference in “volume” this creates can be measured, because both the thick ice of pressure ridges and the thin ice of leads are often hair thin or thinner, when viewed from outer space. I would argue much more ice is formed when it is windy, because more open water is exposed to freeze, and also wind chill causes more cooling than calm.
In conclusion, even the “warm” part of this winter, (before the cold hit Europe and the sea began to freeze along the arctic coast,) may have had ice being blown north from the Barents Sea and piling up towards the pole in a manner like 2006, which leads to less ice now, but more ice in September.
In any case, arctic sea ice is too shoved about by winds and currents to be a very good measure of cold or warmth.
Pamela Gray says: February 5, 2012 at 7:36 pm
Don’t worry, the warmists will convert all the “excess” food stuffs into ethanol and store it in fuel tanks for later use. That will solve the problem. It will also have the beneficial side effect of making both fuel and food more expensive. /sarc
J Fischer says:
February 5, 2012 at 7:14 pm
European cold snap, 2012: 300 deaths
European heat wave, 2003: 35,000 deaths.
——————————————————————————
Put on your swim suit and get out of your front door for half an hour.
After that, we’ll talk again.
Minus 17 to minus 20 degrees C here in Schwerin, eastern Germany, actually. It’s about 15 degrees C COLDER over here than on average for this time of the year – and that’s after two consecutive years of record-breaking snow-loads and longevity of cold, already.
When does weather become climate again?
Talking of tragic.
Global warming is happening? It’s real?
I don’t know about a planetary emergency but the UK is sure heading for another.
It is not unusual to have snow in North Africa. There are ski resorts in Algeria and Morocco.
You can go to the Google maps and see snow in Morocco.
There are a line of Mountains along the North eastern coast stretching fro Morocco to Tunisia.
The Atlas mountain range and the Sahara Atlas Range.
See this wiki entry on the Atlas – even the leading image has snow.
I have worked in Algeria in the midst of the Tell Atlas range and have been trapped in snow more than once. One of our crews was isolated by snow for two weeks in the town of Tiaret Algeria.
“J Fischer says:
February 5, 2012 at 7:14 pm
European cold snap, 2012: 300 deaths
European heat wave, 2003: 35,000 deaths.”
Mendacious and evil nonsense. What do you base your 300 on? Some headline in the Independent or Guardian? Last year’s excess winter mortality (in the UK alone) was as follows:
“Key findings
There were an estimated 25,700 excess winter deaths in England and Wales in 2010/11, virtually unchanged from the previous winter
As in previous years, there were more excess winter deaths in females than in males in 2010/11
Between 2009/10 and 2010/11 male excess winter deaths increased to 11,200, but female deaths fell to 14,400
The majority of deaths occurred among those aged 75 and over; however, deaths in this age group fell between 2009/10 and 2010/11, whereas deaths in persons aged under 75 increased
The excess winter mortality index was highest in Wales in 2010/11, whereas in the two previous winters it was highest in the South East of England.”
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/subnational-health2/excess-winter-mortality-in-england-and-wales/2010-11–provisional–and-2009-10–final-/stb-ewm-2010-11.html
Official statistics show how more people die of cold each year than of warmth. It’s tendentious interpretations like yours that actually lead to a lack of concern for deaths from cold.
Actually, unless the whole of February is really brutal, Europe’s winter won’t be regarded as an especially cold one.
December and January were pretty mild, it’s only since the beginning of February that the brutal cold has set in.
Europe might be shivering, but here in an Aussie summer…temps have been well below average for the most part of the summer season. And this summer is just like the last four or five, ie, we’ve NOT had a typical summer. We had two days of summer here in Sydney over the w/e. Summer ends in just over three weeks. My guess is there will be some more cold records being broken this winter…just in time for Al Gore to release his proof the Antarctic is melting.
The Independent, February 4, 2012: A dramatic loss of sea ice covering the Barents and Kara Seas above northern Russia could explain why a chill Arctic wind has engulfed much of Europe and killed 221 people over the past week.
Studies by scientists at the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research have confirmed a link between the loss of Arctic sea ice and the development of high-pressure zones in the polar region, which influence wind patterns at lower latitudes further south.
(http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/science-behind-the-big-freeze-is-climate-change-bringing-the-arctic-to-europe-6358928.html )
The US National Snow and Ice Data Centre in Boulder, Colorado, wrote in January 5, 2012:
While temperatures were above normal in the Kara and Barents seas, the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation tends to keep the coldest winter air locked up in the Arctic, which keeps the middle latitudes free of frigid Arctic temperatures and strong snowstorms. This weather pattern helps to explain the low snow cover and warm conditions over much of the United States and Eastern Europe so far this winter.
Some scientists have speculated that the negative Arctic Oscillation pattern of the last two winters was in part driven by low sea ice extent. The recurrence of the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation so far this winter, following a near-record low summer sea ice extent, suggests that other factors play an important role. (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ )
– I also think that other factors play an important role;
– If it is true that a warmer zone of a relatively small extent (Barents Sea) can trigger colder temperatures in large areas around it, the global temperature will likely decrease as one can ascertain at this moment. The extreme cold in large parts of Europe and Asia is not a proof of global warming, as some scientists suggest.
TerryS says: February 5, 2012 at 6:14 pm
“….A warmer climate will result in between 5,700 and 36,000 fewer winter deaths JUST IN THE UK.”
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
And those figures are based upon the assumption that people will be able to keep themselves warm, ie, that electricity supply during winter will be reliable and affordable. However, due to the UK’s present energy policy the spectre of unreliable and intermittent winter electricity supply looms large, so too the fact that many people (not simply confined to low income or those on fixed income albeit that these two classes will be hardest hit) will be unable to afford to keep themselves warm. Thus one can expect that if there is no global warming the winter death rate in the UK will increase, not decrease.
The UK would do very well out of globing warming and the UK government, for the benefit of its citizens, should promote policies that lead to global warming. This is the best way future for the UK. Just imagine if Scotland could be more like the Midlands, the Midlands more like the South East and the South East more like the Channel Islands. Lovely. Think of the benefit to farming, viniculture and tourism Politicians, what are you waiting for?
Rhys Jaggar says:
February 6, 2012 at 2:26 am
Actually, unless the whole of February is really brutal, Europe’s winter won’t be regarded as an especially cold one.
December and January were pretty mild, it’s only since the beginning of February that the brutal cold has set in.
The use of the word “brutal” tells the story. We are supposed to be warming on a rapidly accelerating rate according to the alarmist media and AGW science brigade. It also is important to realize that “brutal” weather patterns happen in different parts of the globe selectively. The jet stream is unable to bend down to all locations at once, it has controlling factors.
Winter is not over yet, the stage is set for more “brutal”
Rhys Jaggar says: February 6, 2012 at 2:26 am
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Rhys has a valid point.
I must admit that here in Spain, to date, we have had a beautiful winter. In December temperatures were typically 19 to 22 deg C with 5 or so days being 22 to 25 deg C and in January typically 17 to 20 deg C with a few days about 22 deg C. It has also been very dry with only one wet day in January, and possibly one in December. It has felt quite warm in the sun and between 11 am and 4 pm such that on most days it has been shorts and T shirt, or even no T shirt. On many days I could have sun bathed, but the pool although visually enticing, is very cold.
It is still warm during the day typically about 16 to 17 deg C (today might be a little warmer) but now damn cold at night about 2 deg C (one night was meant to be down to 0 deg C). The houses over here are not well insulated so they get very cold very quickly.
There is no snow on the mountains near me as there has been during the last 2 or 3 winters, but this is probably explained by the fact that there has been all but no rain, very dry.
Freath3 says:
February 5, 2012 at 7:18 pm
Scientist: ‘Gulf Loop Current is broke’ -”Mini Ice Age” on the way Europe – Jul 21, 2010
http://youtu.be/syD80ez0d-M
“The gulf loop current is broke. “They have finally done something they can’t fix”. Take appropriate action (do not panic). This “climate change” will take place in 1-2 years, so there is not much time. God help us all and pray for love and peace to all life.
Hard science, current data shows *loop current broken*and worsening. Report by National Institute
Nuclear Physics etc… Links:
http://www.colinandrews.net/GulfStreamBroken.html
http://www.associazionegeofisica.it/OilSpill.pdf
http://www.cleancaribbean.org/docs/COREXIT_9500_UsCuEg.PDF
http://argo.colorado.edu/~realtime/welcome/ “
—–
That is quite frankly nonsense. The Loop Current breaks off and forms eddies all the time. It is normal behavior. The maps on that page even show past eddies that have broken off and drifted west to the Texas/Mexico coast.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loop_Current
“A related feature is an area of warm water with an “eddy” or “Loop Current ring” that separates from the Loop Current, somewhat randomly. These rings then drift to the west at speeds of about 5 cm/s (0.18 km/h or 0.11 mph) and bump into the coast of Texas or Mexico.”
This little nitwit is a real repugnant parasite, a tapeworm on the taxpayers.
For the American NorthEast, which he is no doubt referring, winter began OCTOBER 29 this past year. And let me tell you something, after 10 inches of global warming and massive tree destruction, blackouts, accidents and other disruption, it can never snow again for all I care.
I remember we caught another lucky break back in 1981 or so, likewise in I think 1975, where we were temporarily spared dramatic snow totals for a season sandwiched between multiple hellacious snowfall years. Those of us that do not occupy an Ivory Tower know better than to look a gift horse in the mouth.
It seems that this Mann is another kind of gift horse, however we are stuck looking at his ass.
I have just tried to leave a post on the LA Times website referring to Mr Mann, all three have been deleted. The first post received a response saying it was under mediation then I placed a second post and then it and the first just disappeared the third likewise. Clearly anyone who cares to contradict their God like fervour for Co2 induced AGW are not welcome, lets all sing America the land of the free, remember hand on chest, this is a democracy!!
Mods, a Mulligan if I may (do-over from prev. post) TIA _Jim
In whom would I place more trust? Joe or Gates …
A Peanut Gallery occupant (a guesser?) with zero _skill_ in the predictive meteorology biz or someone actively engaged in the field?
No brainer … go with ‘Gates’ …
/Major sarc
.
And downunder, at least in supposedly sunny Sydney, the cool spell continues. I’ve had to wear shoes & socks at times these last few weeks I mean, really, how bad can it get? We’ve had a few days slightly, and only very slightly, above the average, the rest are well below.
There is also a lot of rain, and people are getting flooded out all up the east coast. That is what a double la nina will give us, here on the west Pacific rim. I hope never to see it again, and some warm weather arrives soon! I am losing my tan!
Moving to the tropics this year with any luck….
tokyoboy says:
February 5, 2012 at 10:49 pm
R. Gates says: February 5, 2012 at 10:26 pm ……
Maybe you should quit being a worrier, for your mental health.
——–
No worries at all. This is a most interesting time to be studying and observing the climate. Highest greenhouse gas concentrations in at least 800,000 years (probably much longer) versus a quiet sun— what more could you ask for? We will know so much more in 20 years than we know now. Very exciting times…hardly a time to worry. Unless of course things really are worse than most here at WUWT suspect…
European cold snap, 2012: 300 deaths
Those are the people, who were found frozen on streets or in makeshift shelters. So far, no one was counting people, who died of cardiac and respiratory ailments exacerbated by freezing temperatures.
In the death toll of 2003 heat wave not many people dropped dead directly on streets and the thousands counted died due to worsening of their already fragile health and dehydration.
These victims remain yet to be counted for the current freeze.
Isn’t Tweeting itself an indicator of arrested development? I thought it was for teenage girls and others unable to shut up.
Ian W says:
February 5, 2012 at 6:05 pm
Whenever I see a story with a headline “one death every X minutes” I tend to assume either bad math or misleading statistics. If you read the linked article, the actual body of the text says:
So first of all, the normal winter death rate in England and Wales is 1,560 per week more than the typical non-winter week. Winter death increases could be due to all sorts of reasons not directly attributed to cold: auto accidents, house fires, breaking one’s neck while skiing, etc. At at all times other than war and natural disasters most of the dying are elderly, so I have no idea why pensioner groups would consider this “shocking”.
Now Professor Davies “expects” a substantial increase to 2,000 per week over the non-winter death rate due to the extreme cold. So the actual increase attributed to the extreme cold would be 2,000 – 1,560, or 440 per week. This works out to one extra expected death every 23 minutes. In a normal winter, one extra person dies every six and a half minutes; Professor Davies expects one extra person to die every 5 minutes during the period of extreme cold. Keep in mind extra means in addition to the non-winter death rate, which the article does not give.
So, not only bad math and misleading statistics, but no actual data: just expectations as well.
Tragic winter weather in Europe doesn’t fit the Mannian narrative
Nothing fits the Mannian narrative. It is ALL Mann made. GK
See
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2097292/Big-freeze-Europe-shows-signs-letting-Venices-famous-waterways-ice-over.html
Canals frozen in Venice & Holland!!!!!
Actually, this can all be explained quite well with the phrase climate extremes caused by AGW warming and CO2. It just requires the explanation in each separate venue at a time and from a distance of course. All extremes all the time r us, until you are told otherwise and with no debate since the debate has ended.
The most remarkable characteristic is the snow cover in Turkey. While snow there is not uncommon, complete coverage especially near the coasts is. Now we see the origin of the Santa Clause figure (St. Nicolas, an Anatollian Christian).
Its only a warm winter in the US if you’re not in Alaska. If you do include Alaska, is it still warmer in the whole US?
My guess is that anAL GOREtentive is on an extended European speaking tour
You guys keep reporting on all these extreme global weather anomalies but can’t recognize the one constant other extreme anomaly – the size of the human foot print on this little ball of mud.
The party is over, time to go to work on living with-in our means. Make your own food. Ride a bicycle as much as possible. Work from home. Do something to make your life simpler. Go to bed with the sun set.
@Geoff Sharp
http://tinyurl.com/2dg9u22/?q=node/224
@M.A.Vukcevic
Polar vortex splitting appears to be affected by intensity of geomagnetic field.
Siberia field is getting stronger, Hudson bay weaker. Strong field drives the winter temperatures down.
Maybe you 2 should get together and try to unify the solar/terrestrial cycle thingy?
Just from reading both posts, it appears there may be a relationship between the solar AM and terrestrial geomagnetic shifting.
Worth looking at this relationship, IMHO…
Check out this story (referenced by Daily Bayonet).Note this bit: “But as Europe huddled indoors for warmth, Russian gas giant Gazprom said it could not satisfy western Europe’s demand for more energy.”
Relax folks, normal service has been resumed, and not only is global warming responsible for the “Year without a winter”, it is now also responsible for the brutal winter conditions in Europe.
http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2012/02/06/Sea-ice-loss-said-driving-European-chill/UPI-37981328575253/?spt=hs&or=sn
It was predicted by “models” years ago, seemingly. Anyway, not all of Europe is suffering the GW induced cold weather at the moment. Here in south-east Ireland its a beautiful, mild, spring-like morning,
I promised to eat my hat if Feb did not go cold:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/08/solar-cycle-24-length-and-its-consequences/#comment-859562
RE: tom says:
February 6, 2012 at 5:20 pm
“You guys keep reporting on all these extreme global weather anomalies but can’t recognize the one constant other extreme anomaly – the size of the human foot print on this little ball of mud.”
FYI: You are not Bigfoot, nor is our planet a little ball of mud.
“The party is over, time to go to work on living with-in our means. Make your own food. Ride a bicycle as much as possible. Work from home. Do something to make your life simpler. Go to bed with the sun set.”
Be my guest. It is a wonderful learning experience. I tried it, back in the early 1970’s. It sounded so nice: Instead of a dreary job, and only fishing on the weekends, I could fish all week long, and eat fish. It turned out to not be easy, even in the summer. Winter absolutely sucked.
You ought to study the breakdown of the Native American infrastructures, in pre-Columbian societies. The Mayan and Anazsazi and numerous Mound-Builder societies all went through horrific crashes, without Europeans to blame. It doesn’t take much, and in fifty years a whole people’s “footprint” is just dust in the wind.
It is madness to be trying to replace an infrastructure that works with one that, at the very least, is untested. Things could turn into a horrific crash, without a Little Ice Age to blame.
Caleb says on February 7, 2012 at 10:25 am
Only for those who do not stand to benefit from that replacement (oh, and the fools they have convinced but who will be cut out of the game.)
RE: Richard Sharpe says:
February 7, 2012 at 10:42 am
“Only for those who do not stand to benefit from that replacement (oh, and the fools they have convinced but who will be cut out of the game.)”
I imagine there are some foolish enough to believe that they could “benefit” from a “reduction in the population of the world,” leaving only a half-billion survivors. They likely imagine they themselves hiding in some safe place, with a small army to protect them, and a nice stash of food. However the problem with such a genocide, (and that is what it is,) is that six and a half billion do not go quietly into oblivion. Also a “small army” can turn on its leader.
And so on and so forth. It is an interesting mental excersize to think of all the ways such a sick “utopia” could fail to account for every contingency, and face things back-firing. When you erase six and a half billion people, there is a great likelihood you have eraced some vital idea or answer it turns out you yourself greatly need. (The example of Germany’s need for scientists to make the A-bomb in WW2 springs to mind. They erased the very geniuses they needed.)
I think a lot of the worry about over-population is absurd. The people most worried have plenty of space and food, and have seldom actually experienced living in a crowded village. I myself feel people are wonderful, and that there are compassionate solutions to problems created by over-crowding and famine in certain parts of the world. For the most part, “The more the merrier,” within limits. It seems the world has shown people recognize “the limits,” and are able to level off population growth, in all but the most desperate situations. Therefore the answer is to end desperation, not to seek a desperate solution.
To replace an infrastructure that works with one that, at the very least, is untried is a desperate solution. It is a straw grasped by desperate people. The question is, what are they so cotton-picking desperate about? Are they but grandmothers, seeing a mouse and screaming? (I probably offended grandmothers; sorry.)