UAH Global Temperature Update for Nov. 2011: +0.12 deg. C
By Dr. Roy Spencer
The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for November, 2011 remained about the same as last month, at +0.12 deg. C (click on the image for the full-size version):
The 3rd order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.
Here are this year’s monthly stats:
YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2011 1 -0.010 -0.055 0.036 -0.372
2011 2 -0.020 -0.042 0.002 -0.348
2011 3 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342
2011 4 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229
2011 5 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043
2011 6 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233
2011 7 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204
2011 8 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155
2011 9 +0.289 +0.304 +0.274 +0.178
2011 10 +0.116 +0.169 +0.062 -0.054
2011 11 +0.123 +0.075 +0.170 +0.024
Since last month I predicted another temperature fall for November, which did not occur, I will admit that I should have followed my own advice: don’t try predicting the future based upon the daily temperature updates posted at the Discover website.
FYI, I’m making progress on the Version 6 of the global temperature dataset, and it looks like the new diurnal drift correction method is working.
[Reminder: Since AMSR-E failed in early October, there will be no more sea surface temperature updates from that instrument.]
What happened to that “Super La Nina” we were supposed to see making temperatures plummet? I was expecting a large drop for November.
“The 3rd order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.”
But I can’t help hoping that we’re heading for a half-degree of cooling, to the great discomfiture of the Global Warming brigade.
Quite a large divergence from RSS.
Jos D’Aleo, on Icecap.us, reported a lower temperature via RSS. 0.033C and the AMO was negative.
Thanks, Dr. Spencer — I had to laugh at your comment about Excel’s 3rd order polynomial.
And, to my eye, a 1st order polynomial would show a constant warming… 😉
Thanks for the update Doc. I have to chuckle because I had predicted the same. I’m always thrown into a state of consternation when you and RSS diverge. They showed a drop of 0.056°
To theFlying Orc. The super La Nina, IF there is going to be one, is only just developing. See http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/
and look at the 30 day and 90 day averages of the SOI. If a super La Nina develpops, I understand these values need to be around 30.
Jim Cripwell –
Thanks, I thought we were supposed to be in one already, and that it was a partial cause of the drop over the last few months. What did cause the steep drop over the last few months?
Not to worry. Pelosi has assured us that the combustion of Methane does not produce Carbon Dioxide.
Perhaps someone should apprise Algore of the immediate danger of the Arctic Ocean bursting into flame which would melt the Aortic Ice and cause an uncontrollable and disastrous rise in sea level.
I see the need for another government mandate: Ingest a Beano tablet before each meal.
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Giant plumes of methane bubbling to surface of Arctic Ocean
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow/giant-plumes-methane-bubbling-surface-arctic-ocean-163804179.html
Russian scientists have discovered hundreds of plumes of methane gas, some 1,000 meters in diameter, bubbling to the surface of the Arctic Ocean. Scientists are concerned that as the Arctic Shelf recedes, the unprecedented levels of gas released could greatly accelerate global climate change
“The Aortic Ice”. Wonderful typo.
If the Aortic ice melts we all gonna drown.
So those plumes of methane is that something new or only just discovered, not explained very well. If natural nothing new here, funding goes poof.
Dr Spencer
Thanks for posting the data.
As DR (see December 15, 2011 at 11:57 am) and suyts (see December 15, 2011 at 12:04 pm) observe the RSS data showed a drop of some 0.056° such that there is quite some divergence. Obviously this is just 1 months of data but do you have any explanation for this duvergence?
I would appreciate your views.
I must admit I expected November to be lower especially in the SH and the Tropics. There is a medium strength La Nina refusing to leave.
I’d like to know how the global figure is arrived at. Is it a weighted average of the 3 hemispheres (NH SH TRP)?
Not sure it is to do with a super La Nina, but the west coast of Australia has been experiencing a radical shift in rainfall patterns this year, suggesting something (very) unusual is happening.
Looking at the RSS data, the lower stratosphere has been steady since ~1995. Isn’t an increased greenhouse effect meant to lower stratosphere temps?
I must also confess to being totally baffled by the latest number. If one just compares November 2007 to November 2011 on ch05, it is clear that 2011 is a fair bit lower than 2007. Comparing the RSS for these two months, it went DOWN from 0.126 in 2007 to 0.033 in 2011. However with UAH, it went UP from 0.06 to 0.12. That is a difference of about 0.15. To put this into some sort of perspective, the difference in the Hadcrut3 data set between the 2nd warmest (0.482) and 12th warmest (0.352) is only 0.13. WUWT?
“Ed Scott says:
December 15, 2011 at 1:36 pm
Russian scientists have discovered hundreds of plumes of methane gas, some 1,000 meters in diameter, bubbling to the surface of the Arctic Ocean.”
There has been speculation that this sort of thing may have been responsible for sinking ships in the Bermuda triangle.
I posted the following comment on Dr. Spencer’s blog…
One interesting item… if you plot the 12-month running means for UAH versus RSS since they started in the late 1970’s, the RSS 12-month running mean has *ALWAYS* *ALWAYS* *ALWAYS* been warmer than the corresponding UAH 12-month running mean. But, after 33 years, it looks like that streak is about to be broken next month. Not only the first annual temps RSS-cooler-than-UAH, but also the first ever 12-month running mean RSS-cooler-than-UAH. For the last 8 months (April-to-November) RSS has been cooler than UAH (or UAH has been warmer than RSS).
The *ONLY* previous times there have been 2 or more consecutive RSS-cooler-than-UAH months was…
July-September 1980 (3 consecutive months)
March-June 1985 (4 consecutive months)
This might conceivably be for real, But I suggest looking into it more deeply. Something seems amiss here.
We suspect that most of the differences between RSS and UAH are due to different treatments of diurnal drift of the satellites. RSS uses a climate model for those adjustments, while we adjust (force) satellites which have orbital drift to match simultaneously operating satellites which do not drift. (John Christy might have additional views on this, but he is in the hospital with a blood clot in his pulmonary artery. He’s doing better now, and should be released in a couple days.)
This is why we are working hard on the new diurnal drift adjustments. We want our adjustments to be the best possible, and based upon observational data rather than on climate models.
Urederra says:
December 15, 2011 at 1:55 pm
Ed Scott says:
December 15, 2011 at 1:36 pm
Perhaps someone should apprise Algore of the immediate danger of the Arctic Ocean bursting into flame which would melt the Aortic Ice and cause an uncontrollable and disastrous rise in sea level.
“The Aortic Ice”. Wonderful typo.
If the Aortic ice melts we all gonna drown.
——————————————————————————————
My spell checker seems to work well. There seems to be an occasional glitch in the context checker.
Arctic ice melting could said to be loosely (very) analogous to aortic bleeding.
For the many posts above that are creating strawman arguments about the La Nina …
… first, the current La Nina is a very weak event. It is only going to get to around -1.25C in the next few weeks versus a Super La Nina event which must be below -2.5C (and there has not actually been a Super La Nina event in the record EVER to date).
… the 3 month lag in the temperature response to a La Nina means that November temperatures are still responding to the August La Nina values which were only -0.64C.
… Temperatures will reach a low point around March, 2012 when the full impact of the La Nina and the negative AMO will be felt.
The UAH numbers will get into the negatives in short order.
Ed Scott says:
December 15, 2011 at 1:36 pm
“Russian scientists have discovered hundreds of plumes of methane gas, some 1,000 meters in diameter, bubbling to the surface of the Arctic Ocean. Scientists are concerned that as the Arctic Shelf recedes, the unprecedented levels of gas released could greatly accelerate global climate change”
Following the links in the story you linked to it seems the Russians are ascribing these methane “fountains” to a decline in the “East Siberian Arctic Shelf”.
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/shock-as-retreat-of-arctic-sea-ice-releases-deadly-greenhouse-gas-6276134.html
But as I recall the “East Siberian Arctic Shelf” has, except for a handful of occasions, disappeared in each of the melt seasons since the satellite records began. The retreat is certainly greater in recent years, but what evidence exists suggests there has been open water in these areas for about as long, and perhaps longer, than we have been paying attention.
A recent work on this topic, produced by folks who are fairly obviously not AGW skeptics, notes the potential problems of melting methane hydrates on the seafloor, but even they admit it is unlikely to have much influence on the climate.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2011GL047222.shtml
Rising Arctic Ocean temperatures cause gas hydrate destabilization and ocean acidification
Abstract
Vast amounts of methane hydrates are potentially stored in sediments along the continental margins, owing their stability to low temperature – high pressure conditions. Global warming could destabilize these hydrates and cause a release of methane (CH 4) into the water column and possibly the atmosphere. Since the Arctic has and will be warmed considerably, Arctic bottom water temperatures and their future evolution projected by a climate model were analyzed. The resulting warming is spatially inhomogeneous, with the strongest impact on shallow regions affected by Atlantic inflow. Within the next 100 years, the warming affects 25% of shallow and mid-depth regions containing methane hydrates. Release of methane from melting hydrates in these areas could enhance ocean acidification and oxygen depletion in the water column. The impact of methane release on global warming, however, would not be significant within the considered time span.
Ed Scott says:
December 15, 2011 at 1:36 pm
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Sorry to burst your Methane bubble, but Methane concentrations in the atmosphere have stabilized or will stabilize very soon (probably because the oil and natural gas industry are no longer simply releasing it to the atmosphere as they once were – and it will stabilize at a lower level than the theory predicted just 10 years ago for example – the theory was always based on Methane stabilizing since it has a short lifetime).
Barrow Alaska which is the bellweather Methane monitoring station on the planet since its trends lead the world.
http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/6004/ccggbrwch44nonedailyall.png
Global since 1981.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi_2011.fig2_med.png
Please check out the factual information before posting scary stories from now on.
Dale says:
December 15, 2011 at 2:36 pm
Looking at the RSS data, the lower stratosphere has been steady since ~1995. Isn’t an increased greenhouse effect meant to lower stratosphere temps?
Yes but the lower stratosphere is dominated by ozone which has been going down, the upper stratosphere is dominated by CO2 which is where the temps are decreasing.
Check out ‘Clough and Iacono’.
Another thrilling installment! I can’t wait for next month’s! And that polynomial fit is so entertaining as well. Really, we are spoiled.