One of the great things about Internet, technology, and personal weather stations today is that I can sit comfortably in my home in California and watch the storm progress on the other coast. This map from Weather Underground suggests that Irene isn’t packing hurricane force winds as it makes landfall in North Carolina, and is rapidly weakening.
click image to enlarge
When I look at the station with the highest wind speed on the map above, it is rather surprising.
Maybe there are hurricane force wind speeds nearer the eye?
Nope.
So what we have here at this point appears to be a tropical storm. By the time it reaches New York, it may very well just be a tropical depression on par with a Nor’easter in intensity.
The next NHC bulletin will probably see a further downgrade in this storm, which now looks to be not as bad as forecast at this point. This is good. Storm surge for the outer banks will of course be an issue, but the fact that we are still getting automated station reports from there is encouraging.
If anyone needs help reading the weather station surface plot symbols for wind, see this.
UPDATE: TWC seems to concur. If they have a reporter standing on the beach, then I suppose it isn’t all that bad:
UPDATE2: latest from NHC, it’s still a hurricane, that’s our story and we are sticking to it:
BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 200 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011 ...IRENE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.5N 76.3W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE UNITED STATES BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN...AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC * NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE * UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IRENE CROSSES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL- STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. A WIND GUST TO 67 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT LANGLEY AIR FORCE BASE IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A DROPSONDE RELEASED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
UPDATE3: From a comment left on Goddard’s site:
Out of the local NWS office in Morehead City, NC:
First, in the northeast part of the eyewall at landfall, and about 30 minutes before your radar map posted above…
0719 AM HIGH SUST WINDS CEDAR ISLAND 35.00N 76.33W
08/27/2011 M90 MPH CARTERET NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
CEDAR ISLAND FERRY TERMINAL REPORTS SUSTAINED WINDS 90
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 110 MPH.
Secondly, in the southwest (weakest) part of the eyewall…
1035 AM HURRICANE ATLANTIC BEACH 34.69N 76.74W
08/27/2011 CARTERET NC TRAINED SPOTTER
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 101 MPH.
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So I think what we have here is a narrow area of hurricane force winds, and a broad area of tropical storm force winds associated with this storm. Near the eyewall it would of course be quite dangerous, whether or not Irene can sustain hurricane intensity will be the question of the day.
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UPDATE4: That question seems to be answering itself, just over a 90 minutes after I posted the first images, we see the eye disappearing:
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NOAA seems committed to overstating the intensity of this storm to the bitter end. We will see at 2pm EST…
The latest NHC track is moved west some 30 miles in New Hampshire. The NWS forecast had the remnant eye moving over me near Concord, now the track looks like it’s over our yurt on Mt Cardigan. My wife was already planning to go there tomorrow AM for the storm, I may go with her.
Is it a hurricane?
One thing about the Wunderground data – the stations with the highest wind may not have power. 🙂
Also, the anemometers are likely not at the 10 meter height that I think is the NWS standard, the difference between 2 meters and above treetops is often remarkable.
And, that’s one heck of a dry slot – that’s murder to a hurricane.
A Nor’easter in intensity is nothing to sneeze at! It certainly feel like an intense time in NYC right now with transportation shut downs and evacuations.
Another application of the Uncertainty Principle. I wonder how much this will have cost? And how much loss of credibility in NOAA and MSM?
I was worried that Gore might use Hurricane Irene in his 14 September Alarm-fest. He might, still. If observation is that the storm is no worse than many others, then New Yorkers might find him less credible, too.
With a number of places as far north as Hampton, VA currently (1:40 ET) reporting sustained winds in excess of 45mph, I’m doubting the veracity of WU’s numbers near the eye.
It will still cost million and and already has.
Follow-up: those 45mph winds are about 125 miles from the current location of the eye.
Way too much land coursing to remain a full strength hurricane. But it will bring in a lot of moisture and it looks like it is hell bent on chewing up a lot of oceanfront. This will be very property-destructive.
I think Joe B is trying to resurrect the wow factor but as usual every meteorological organisation seem to over hype the situation, I’m just glad it didn’t hit the UK as UKMO with it’s pathetically over the top warning system would have had the popiulation committing suicide.
However Fox News are doing their best to put some life into the hurricane but as pointed out its really on the cusp off being a tropical storm. Could it deepen further though once back over warm water?
Daniela says:
“It certainly feel like an intense time in NYC right now with transportation shut downs and evacuations.”
Transportation was needlessly shut down, and people totally ignored the evacuation orders, crowding the beaches instead.
After a piddling earthquake caused a run on Depends, and a windy rainstorm shut down America’s biggest city, It looks like the thumbsuckers have taken control.
If you like, you can reply, “But what if ___________.”☺
Steve Goddard made Drudge by mocking NOAA that Weather Underground only showed winds of 33mph at landfall. His claims got so ludicrous that Joe Bastardi wrote in to refute him by listing a number of places where sustained winds have easily hit hurricane force, asking Steve and other posters not to give skeptics a bad name by continuing to mock the hurricane before it’s barely begun.
REPLY: For Goddard to call it a “phony” is clearly wrong. It is simply losing speed quickly and running out of moisture. As Ric points out, look at the dry sector to the east. It may regain some strength after leaving NC. – Anthony
Watching Fox News has been fun. There seems to be a sort of wan tone to it all…the hyperverbs are still there, “pounding”…”lashing”…but the background images aren’t too convincing. One commentator started off standing splay-legged as if bracing against the blast, but by the end of his segment he was standing with heels together. Once she gets over land, she’ll be losing her bluster. There’ll be a few buckets of rain, but I’m wondering if we’ll see the newsreel clips from 1938 any more (one of those unprecedented blows). In a few days there will be a lot of rain in New Brunswick (the province).
Perhaps they should have named it … Hurricane Fizzle.
Lots of rain … localized flooding a concern
Strong winds, but nothing like I’d expect from a respectable hurricane
Then there is the storm surge to watch out for along the coast.
Maybe the media can find themselves a decent scandal on this slow news day …
It is a hurricane. I live in Nashville,NC which is about 3 miles west of I-95 near Rocky Mount. Electricity was lost at 11:30 this morning. No landline phone, so probably a tree fell on a main. Cell phone still works which is how I am able to post this. Sustained winds have increased in the last hour. My rain gauge says 3.5 inches, but I know it is probably close to 4 inches. A storm about a month ago dumped 5 inches in 3 hours so I know there is going to be some flooding down river. I never thought it would be this bad; but I’ve been in much worse.
Steve Goddard was only pointing out the obvious. He couldn’t find any proof of sustained hurricane force winds at landfall. Certainly, six hours after landfall this does not appear to meet the qualifications of a hurricane. There is nothing ludicrous in his claims that I can see…
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/08/27/noaas-phony-hurricane-coming-on-shore-with-33-mph-winds/
But . . . but . . . exponentially increasing wind speeds!
& widdershins death spirals!
& tipping points!
I’ve had the same screen up as Anthony for the last few hours, but have been monitoring pressures, rather than wind speeds, as these IMO are likely to be more accurate.
The lowest I can find right now is 28.43 inches (966 mb) at Cresswell,about 20 miles to the north of the storm’s centre.
Is it me or is the “official” reaction by government authorities to the storm (mandatory evac, staying is illegal, write name and SSN on your arm with a sharpie, and other scare tactics) reminiscent of “Close Encounters” or better yet, a scene from The Haunting (the good one from 1963), “So there won’t be anyone around if you need help… We couldn’t hear you. In the night… No one could. No one lives any nearer than town. No one will come any nearer than that… In the night. In the dark.”
The pressure is so low without the windspeed, because it is not 100 percent tropical anymore-its a hybrid noreaster and tropical system.
Check. That should be 963 millibars.
I think some are ignoring the fact that the barometric pressure has been sustained at 950mb since last night. This is equal to a cat 3 storm. It is dangerous to downplay this situation. Also, the eye will soon be over water.
If you click through on a lot of those stations you find the wind speed to be the last measured before power loss. A lot of these were at 4 – 6 AM.
I don’t know what type of weather stations Wunderground is using, but the “personal” stations using inexpensive cup anemometers are not going to be terribly accurate in high speed winds. These also do not respond quickly to gusts so the readings are more of an average.
NOAA owned/operated station at Duck Pier showing ~55kt gusts, offshore buoys with 20+ ft waves.
REPLY: Note one of the examples I gave was a MADIS station, which is in fact a professional station with an RM Young Aerovane IIRC for that location – Anthony