While we wait for NOAA to update their ENSO meter on the WUWT sidebar, Bob Tisdale is way ahead of them. Visually, the La Niña seems rather obvious in the image below:
More is available at the WUWT ENSO page
Weekly ENSO Index Drops Below The La Niña Threshold
by Bob Tisdale
This post will serve as the Mid-August 2011 SST Anomaly Update
NINO3.4
NINO3.4 SST anomalies (a commonly used El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index) have dropped significantly below the -0.5 deg C threshold of a La Niña Event. They are presently at approximately -0.74 deg C.
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies
GLOBAL
Weekly Global SST anomalies rose since the last mid-month update, but made a minor dip last week. Global SST anomalies usually lag NINO3.4 SST anomalies by a few months so the global SST anomalies should be nearing their seasonal peak for this year, before they start to respond to the depressed NINO3.4 SST anomalies. For the week centered on August 17, 2011, Global SST anomalies are +0.169 deg C. I’ve also included a shorter-term graph so that the most recent wiggles are visible.
Global SST Anomalies
################################
Global SST Anomalies – Short Term
SOURCE
Reynolds OI.v2 SST anomaly data is available through the NOAA NOMADS system:
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite
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Well that’s Hansen’s shirt gone. Perhaps he’ll go for double or nothing and put up his trench coat?
Anthony: Is the ENSO meter on the sidebar still operational? Weekly NINO3.4 SST anomalies haven’t been at zero for 8 weeks.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst.for
Bob, yes sure is, it is from http://www.noaawatch.gov/ and it is the same on their web page.
Ugh. I hope this doesn’t mean another dry winter here in Texas :/
UK Sceptic says:
August 22, 2011 at 7:01 am
“Well that’s Hansen’s shirt gone. Perhaps he’ll go for double or nothing and put up his trench coat?”
LOL.
Is the hat gone?
La Nina returns … but what about the global sea temperatures measured by ARGO buoys ?
It seem impossible to find the graphical representation of the data after 2008 … why ? Does the ocean temperature continues to drop and it’s not political correct to show this result (a little bit like CLOUD experience in CERN) ?
Well, there goes the “Super El Nino.”
Better luck next year, Mr. Hansen.
.
.
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And… thank you, Bob!
Unfortunately it appears that the ENSO meter was last updated August 4th.
It would be nice to get a record La Nina this year just for fun. How about an anti-1998 el Nino? How about -4? Would that make the warmistas think?
Do we know (can we back-calculate) the ENSO values for the 1940-1976 global decrease in temperatures previously found in the land records .. before NASA-GISS manipulated the records that is?
Can any data/proxies be back-calculated for the 1880-1915 decline in land temps?
I hope this doesn’t mean another round of extreme flood events for the Midwest. Is that likely? If so, when?
La Niña probably means continued drought, so I’m thinking of having my lawn fiberglassed, or go the Brady Bunch route and try Astroturf. The lawn people don’t speak English, so they’ll likely keep mowing it.
A hurricane would help.
Mike in Houston
Jimmy H:
“How about an anti-1998 el Nino? How about -4? Would that make the warmistas think?”
That it is MUCH WORSE THAN WE THOUGHT.
🙂
Bob the swiss says: “La Nina returns … but what about the global sea temperatures measured by ARGO buoys ?”
The Reynolds OI.v2 SST anomaly data used in this post is satellite-based, and it’s supplemented by in situ observations from ships and buoys. As far as I know, the buoys include the ARGO surface readings.
The ARGO data is also used in the NODC’s Ocean Heat Content and Thermosteric Sea Level data:
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/
I presented ARGO-era Ocean Heat Content data through 2010 in a post earlier this year:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2011/03/argo-era-nodc-ocean-heat-content-data-0.html
And, of course, if you have the appropriate software (also available through the following link), you can download the raw ARGO data directly from their website:
http://www-argo.ucsd.edu/
Bob Tisdale,
Thanks for your El Nino/La Nina stuff.
John
RACookPE1978: Regarding your August 22, 2011 at 7:40 am questions: If you’re looking for Sea Surface Temperature data before all of the adjustments by NOAA or the Hadley Centre, the source data (ICOADS) is available through the KNMI Climate Explorer, under the heading of “SST”:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/selectfield_obs.cgi?someone@somewhere
If that’s not what you’re looking for, you’ll need to clarify your questions.
Oh [rude word]. This is not what Texas needs. Another year as dry as this one and agriculture in the Texas Panhandle will be teetering, as will municipal water systems. Even the irrigated crops are struggling, and the dry ground may have contributed to a massive water pipeline failure that has cut several cities’ water supplies in half.
Re the Texas comments I’ just an old school Paramedic but if we build/dig a canal/pipeline from the northern plains that flood to Texas would that help the economy and the farmers in both regions ???
Just my 2 cents John G
@Medic That would make too much sense
Please, don’t pray for a record LN just to annoy the carbon cultists. LN kills people in the Northwest, through snow-collapsed roofs and snow-shoveling heart attacks.
Can anyone provide me with a link of Hansen predicting an El Niño or “Super El Niño” for the coming 12 months or so? Thanks a lot in advance!
To Bob Tisdale :
Thanks for the links.
Re: Question about the sidebar ENSO graphic.
The graphic on the sidebar might be based on info/input from CPC.
The latest from the Climate Prediction Center has:
Niño 4 …… -.2°C
Niño 3.4 … -.7°C
Niño 3 …… -.5°C
Niño 1+2 .. -.3°C
These are the latest WEEKLY values. However, “CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/-0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.”
The previous values were:
[April, May, June] AMJ = -0.2 (posted July)
[May, June, July] MJJ = 0.0 (posted August)
I suspect that when the CPC updates their MONTHLY values in a couple weeks and posts them for the period JJA (June, July, August) in early September, we’ll see them announce not only a negative value but that they see the existence of La Niña conditions.
Whoops … I forgot … for those who aren’t regular denizens of these here parts, the latest info from the Climate Prediction Center is here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
I trust someone has sent a memo to James and Makiko.