George Monbiot has published a story in the Guardian with a strong dose of reality:
He goes on to say that maybe it’s time to give up “magical thinking”.
I hope that by laying out the problem I can encourage us to address it more logically, to abandon magical thinking and to recognise the contradictions we confront.
I’ll say. While I disagree with a lot of what Monbiot says, he does know enough not to lie to himself when things really aren’t going in his favor. He also hits on why the green/warmist movement is becoming so unpopular:
It is a campaign not for abundance but for austerity. It is a campaign not for more freedom but for less. Strangest of all, it is a campaign not just against other people, but against ourselves.
Monbiot does have some realist sense about him, so I find it encouraging that he’s writing about the pickle the greens and warmists find themselves in. I recall during Climategate when he was the first to come out with a statement saying that the issue needs to be addressed square on:
Confronted with crisis, most of the environmentalists I know have gone into denial. The emails hacked from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia, they say, are a storm in a tea cup, no big deal, exaggerated out of all recognition. It is true that climate change deniers have made wild claims which the material can’t possibly support (the end of global warming, the death of climate science). But it is also true that the emails are very damaging.
The response of the greens and most of the scientists I know is profoundly ironic, as we spend so much of our time confronting other people’s denial. Pretending that this isn’t a real crisis isn’t going to make it go away. Nor is an attempt to justify the emails with technicalities. We’ll be able to get past this only by grasping reality, apologising where appropriate and demonstrating that it cannot happen again.
And, as he wrote there, many have continued with the “storm in a tea cup, no big deal, exaggerated out of all recognition” meme. Except the public knows better, and warmists are losing, and losing big. His article this week though is well worth a read, because he’s pretty well come to the conclusion that warmists and greens have painted themselves into a corner with demanding energy policy changes, while providing for no alternatives of substance, and the public is having none of it.
All of us in the environment movement, in other words – whether we propose accommodation, radical downsizing or collapse – are lost. None of us yet has a convincing account of how humanity can get out of this mess.
Dogged reality bites – coming soon to an election near you. Canada this week, Australia soon, and the USA in 2012.
The way out, George, is the same as the way in. Let the free market decide. Shoving mandates down peoples throats like that dimwitted liar Julia Gillard is trying to do in Australia simply won’t work, and she’ll find herself knocked on her butt come next election. She must think people are too stupid to notice or care. People will embrace energy saving technology, but it takes time. And, the solution must have more value, not less. The modern world wasn’t built in 100 days, and neither will the postmodern.
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“Canada this week, Australia soon, and the USA in 2012.”
Unfortunately, unless we can somehow FORCE an election here, down-under, its actually quite a while until the next election.. and if we can’t stop this idiotic tax, I suspect a whole lot of economic pain as well.
Further.. if money isn’t wasted now on such costly idiocies as wind turbines, solar farms and other money sinks, there will be more funds available to investigate more economically sensible alternatives, should they ever really be needed.
I think there will be a ‘lag’ in the response of green-centered MSM as the defeat becomes obvious to THEM. It’s probably obvious to them now, but it will take a while to come out of denial. Like someone noted in the previous post about Lund University, do they look out the window? They spend so much time pushing the flagging agenda, that they don’t notice that decomposition has set in, and that the vultures are circling.
The pity of the Australian situation is that too many scientists contributed to public confusion. For all I know – because there are many scientists here more specialised than I am – many of the scientists copping some criticism might be quite correct. However, there are likely to be some who have been incorrect, yet they have failed to retract hypotheses when they discovered them to be wrong.
The political mess is one matter, but of more concern is the strange philosophy of scientists who guard their data, do not seek outside help to improve it and do no write corrections. Their unswaying obedience to the mantra is behind the strength of the political response.
We are used to erratic decisions from generalist politicians, but we are filled with trepidation if future generations of scientists do not learn how to conduct themselves with professionalism.
“People will embrace energy saving technology, but it takes time. And, the solution must have more value, not less.”
Exactly. I do not in the least claim to be an environmentalist. I think it is a polluted word. But I bought a used natural gas powered car with a state of Utah $2,500 tax credit and fill it with $1.27 per gallon fuel. I bought a fuel-efficient furnace. I recently added insulation to my home with a tax credit.
Why? Zero thought for the environment but all about saving myself money.
Frame your argument in terms of real economic savings for the individual, if you can. Not some nebulous future global environment disaster.
Gee! If only George Monbiot were to read Bob Carter’s book (as well as other excellent publications, of course) maybe he would realise that burning fossil fuels is not such a problem.
Monbiot, like Trenberth, occasionally touches base with solid reality. Not often enough, unfortunately.
Instead of chasing fairies in the bottom of the garden, how about solving real problems: hunger, malaria, and bad water in the Third World? The present economic crisis, despite the rosy picture painted by politicians, is still with us. The eco-nut movement is proposing to attack waste with…more waste, in a grim, grey Socialist hell. .
“The way out, George, is the same as the way in. Let the free market decide. ”
Amen, Brother, Amen!!!! And ‘Don’t let the free market hit ya, on the way out!’
There are only 4 forces in nature.
Man’s worst inventions are still Greed and the Lust for Power, neither of which advances any hope of a brighter future.
Not really very realistic, still a lot of the world is going end stuff.
Good observations, Anthony. Much of my problem with the greens is how they attempt to force things to happen that can only happen naturally, over time, as events change (I often tell one of my favorite environmentalist friends that “you can’t force the love”).
We still, believe it or not, have plenty of oil, plenty of natural gas, plenty of opportunities to employ nuclear power, water power. As long as these things exist, and can be produced and distributed economically, there will be NO economical alternatives that anyone can persuade anyone to adopt. It is the nature of our modern society. Only when the horizon genuinely changes will there be a real ability to focus on alternatives. That, I say, is at least 200 years (if not more) down the road.
Creating a phony crisis to get people to adopt your policy solutions, at great expense and loss of freedom, is at best a charade. At its worst, it is Communism, Fascism, and Pol Pot-ism all wrapped into one.
Oh the irony!
History shows us that wherever large-scale collapse has occurred, psychopaths take over. ….
All of us in the environment movement, in other words – whether we propose accommodation, radical downsizing or collapse – are lost.
This part is good for what it realizes is missing, but still misses the big stuff.
Simon Fairlie …. exposes a remarkable but seldom noticed problem: that most of those who advocate an off-grid, land-based economy have made no provision for manufactures. … I’m talking about the energy required to make bricks, glass, metal tools and utensils, textiles, ceramics and soap: commodities that almost everyone sees as the barest possible requirements.
Somehow he does not mention all the wind turbines, photovoltaic panels, DC/AC inverters, and all the high tech computerized grid monitoring equipment to make them all play nice. Going 100% renewable will be a very high tech world, unless your plan is to live like it was 1650.
The problem for the Australian prime minister is that she wants to have her way (to tax human sourced carbon dioxide emissions) AND to have a consensus on this issue, before she acts.
That is proving rather difficult when 60% of the population now oppose such a tax and their numbers are swelling daily as people catch on to what’s involved.
There is however an elephant in the room.
The idea is that this proposed tax is not the end, merely the first bitter episode.
The idea is that the tax will be increased year by year, until the electricity generators fail and shut down, until the bulk of road and rail transport rust away and all farm animals are banned.
A low carbon future awaits.
Yum yum.
Goodie goody.
What will crack first?
The ecomony?
The Green – Independents – Labor coalition?
The Prime minister’s resolve?
Politics in Australia is very interesting at the moment.
(In the meanwhile the strength of our national ecomomy hangs on a slende thread.)
Will common sense come charging in to save us all at the last moment?
Watch this space – do NOT fall asleep!
This is fun.
I do believe that G.M. is sincere in wanting what is best for the environment, AND humankind, hence his willingness to support nuclear power. Ironically, though very much a CAGW skeptic, I like the “believers” agree that we need to end our dependence on fossil fuels, albeit on a different timescale.
As an alternative to coal, that we should be pursuing nuclear energy is a no-brainer. Perhaps by working with people like George we could have a sensible outcome, even if we disagree about the models. There have been stranger bedfellows.
Anthony, I thought you showed admirable restraint in your description of Julia Gillard (via Andrew Bolt). Many of us down under would have gone further – a lot further.
Keep on punching – the blows are starting to tell.
Mr. Monbiot clearly seems to know who he is up against. See
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2010/dec/02/cancun-climate-change-summit-monbiot
Cancún climate change summit: Is God determined to prevent a deal?
“Now He’s at it again. Last week, just before the resumption of last year’s failed climate talks, the UK recorded its lowest temperature for 25 years, just down the road from where I live. “
Quite frankly, Moonbat and the Greens tend to give man more power than he has.
A good VE8 eruption, a X class Solar flare, Coronal Mass Ejections, i.e. a Carrington
type event. Humbling when you think about it…
Japan’s Earth quake is a good example…
A quick cautionary tale, why I’m no longer a believer in big government!
As A Canadian I care about Australia and it’s future.
We Canadians have always identified with Australians, and we have suffered for many years with the Leftist tax and spend government’s, public broadcasters (CBC) like ABC who always spin the socialist line.
They have longed for Cap and Trade and Carbon taxes. And they love and sign up for every pronouncement and regulation that comes out of the UN and the IPPC, the EU or the loony Global warming the end is near crowd?
Our governments have been determined control us though punitive tax and fees schemes starting with the liberals (socialists in sheep’s clothing) in the late 1960s, they invented big government, big spending, interference with our lives and huge crippling deficits.
Till the IMF called and told Canada it was weeks away from going broke just like in New Zealand.
We went through years of austerity, a collapsing 56% dollar, higher taxes and no increase in wages and sky-high prices for everything FOR 15 YEARS!!
We have had a Minority government for some time and it is NOT the way to go for ANY Country financially (Witness most of Europe) Leftist government’s always go the same root and are always the first in line to commit the long suffering taxpayers to crazy tax and spend scams, as is happening in Australia today.
We Canadians have dodged the global warming bullet/nuts, and now have a steady majority Conservative government and no crazy Carbon Tax / ETS plans for the next 4 + years, thank god.
Good luck Australia and America, you’re going to needs it for all our sakes!
Best wishes to all.
Dave.
The potential for clean, renewable energy generation is almost unlimited. The Sahara Desert alone receives enough solar radiation to, theoretically at least, meet the world’s energy needs 1000 times over. Don’t like Solar? Take your pick from Nuclear, Hydro-electric. Wind, Wave or Tidal power. It’s all out there.
The problems as of now are cost, collection, storage and distribution. Technological solutions to these problems almost certainly exist, and seeking out these solutions should the world’s No.1 priority. If George Monbiot would like to move the debate in this direction, he will have my full support (Yikes!)
The potential rewards are enormous – a utopia of cheap, clean renewable energy for all. The people win. the environment wins and, best of all, the polarised and possibly unsolvable debate, about man’s impact on the Earth’s climate, becomes pretty much irrelevant.
(Reading this back, I think I must have over-dosed on Kool-Aid.) Sorry.
Monbiot is an engaging personality (on TV) who writes really well but I don’t buy his gloomy vision of our future as fossil fuels become more and more expensive.
Not long ago paleo-Monbiots were predicting dire consequences owing to the diminishing availability of the whale oil that was used for lighting. The predictions were entirely wrong as kerosene turned out to be an excellent substitute for whale oil at a tenth of the price.
Monbiot’s vision of our energy future will also be proved entirely wrong. My guess is that electricity generated by nuclear power will fill the gap when fossil fuels fail us.
Following the GFC it seems ‘austerity politics’ is the norm worldwide (well at least in the moribund developed countries). Who isn’t belt tightening? The present UK government seems like a case in point, if the US legislature can get something agreed it’s going to be on similar lines. I had started thinking that the misanthropic, austerity politics of the greens would have started to chime with a wider audience given the times we are living through. I guess there’s only a certain amount of room on that particular bandwagon.
In the end Monbiot stills shows that he is at heart a Green with the “the planet’s real nightmare: not too little fossil fuel – but too much”
He wants us to have to ration. He wants us to have to live less well. He wants us to deny to the Third World the advantages we have.
At heart he is in the hair shirt brigade. The Middle Ages had flagellants, and we have Greens. They want to hurt, and they want us all to hurt with them.
And, just like the flagellants, their evidence is as much faith based as reality based.
It’s not CAGW that is the real danger, but the idea that it would be good for the world to regress. That somehow doing with less is more moral. That suffering is inherently good.
Monbiot shouldn’t be given any credibility, he’s come out with too much dross in the past to be taken anywhere near seriously. He’s also guilty of ensuring that some comments made to his blog never got published (not mine, I hasten to add). The man is as guilty of alarming the public and letting them believe complete nonsense as many others – and must be remembered for this. Back-peddling now is not good enough George.
Werner Brozek
“UK recorded its lowest temperature for 25 years”
Maybe it was in December last year, but I heard on the wireless this morning that the UK has a heatwave and bush fires, no rain in sight.
The Moonbat’s piece reveals a previously unsuspected gift for humour.
Or at least, I ASSUME it is humour.
It certainly had me laughing until I was gasping for breath.
He suffers from a similar problem to the Royal Academy of Engineering report:-
http://www.raeng.org.uk/news/releases/shownews.htm?NewsID=553
Mind boggling conclusions. But no check of the reality of the initial premise.