Brrrr…

This is interesting. Midday temps in the USA and Canada:

BTW every one of these temps comes from an airport thermometer.

Since the snark patrol will say “so what, it’s cold” my point is that I produce this map, and I don’t recall seeing this extent of the CONUS colored purple. Usually SoCal and South Texas at least have some warmth. The temperature difference between Miami and Atlanta is also striking.

Of course just a couple of days ago, there were high temperature records set ahead of the arctic outbreak:

Click image for interactive view

73 thoughts on “Brrrr…

  1. What I see is Winnipeg more than 20 degrees warmer than here! as is Great Falls yet we have no big warming in our forecast?

  2. It seems strange to have a reord high temperature right next to a record low temperature. Must be all that global warming.

  3. The Records Map is an interesting one but it really has me thinking about how the pointing to record temps or precipitation to prove anything is so questionable. Record high temps will be beside record low temps just a few miles apart. It kind of puts a damper on the signficance of these “records” when they are viewed in this manner.

    We are in the very early stages of gathering information about the weather/climate. What Mark Twain said about science is what we can say about the weather and climate.

    “One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact

    Our record of “weather records” is a mere trifle.

  4. I can foresee that 2011 will be the hottest year on record regardless (after data treatment in their GIGO SuperComputer).
    /sarc

  5. I will agree that the temperatures in south Texas are extreme. Brownsville’s temperature usually falls somewhere between Orlando and Miami. But it is not unusual for Dallas or Atlanta to get a inch or two of snow and have it stay on the ground for 48 hours. In the late Nineties, Atlanta had snow on the ground and below freezing temperatures for ten days straight. That just blew all of us away. Atlanta natives could not have imagined such a thing.

    Can someone recommend a website that has weather fronts on the home page along with a menu for temperature and all the other good stuff? Wunderground had that but has just remodeled and now makes you search for stuff.

  6. Actually with 18 in Moosonee (on James Bay) and 36 in Winnipeg, it is actually quite warm for February in the north.

  7. I would be interested in a short study to see how many record highs are set in El Nino vs. La Nina years. Or El Nina…

    My intuition says that there should be more record highs, but it’s hard to know because the global temperature rankings are based upon annual averages of monthly averages. Are the extremes really getting more extreme? The Meehl et al. paper that is cited so often about increasing number of record high/ record lows, and the ratio — only goes back to 1950. The sample size needs to be quite large, perhaps 300-years in order to have a robust set of daily highs and lows that reflect the climate at a given time. Unfortunately, since the climate has never remained the same, you have to get your bootstraps on — and make up data. Sigh.

  8. For a long time the blocking pattern meant that the cold plunged down into the middle of the country, and up in the northeast corner we were tucked out of the way, and even benefited from a sort of back-wash of the mild, maritime air that warmed western Greenland and Hudson Bay. I think they had more below zero mornings in West Virginia than in New Hampshire, last winter; and Portland, Maine had forteen straight months of above Average Temperatures.

    Alas, the times they are a changing, and last month, despite the first two days being 17 degrees above normal, the cold even reached Portland, and the arctic blasts in the second half of January resulted in a month slightly below normal, and Portland’s streak was broken.

    The snow here in Southern New Hampshire is getting so deep it is really getting to be a pain in the butt. I’ve got better things to do then pull snow off my roof with a snow-rake. 4 to 8 more inches predicted for tomorrow, and more for next week, too.

    I blame the quiet sun. I haven’t a clue of the mechanics involved, but it seems the “home grown” cold air from Canada, (as opposed to the Siberian air that gets here due to “cross-polar-flow,”) is just that much colder.

    The worst part for New Hampshire is that even a change in the pattern, bringing warm air flooding across the south and up the east coast, (as is more typical of a La Nina,) just puts us on the northern edge of a whole lot of moisture, and we can still get snow even if temperatures are above normal. (For Concord, New Hampshire the normal range of temperatures is now 32-10, which gives you an average of 21 (F). So it could be ten degrees above average, and the average would still be 31, below freezing.) I expect snow, snow, snow, and then bad spring floods.

    May can’t come too fast for me.

  9. That color between Kansas City and Dallas is very close to the color of fermenting Cabernet Sauvignon. The thought occurs that the USA’s climate and vinous knowledge are at about the same level and can be improved with collaborative investigations and education. Grow grapes, grow!

  10. Please don’t get me wrong, I am definitely an AGW sceptic but what happened to the forecast of the Corbyn group’s “Europe freezing over and one of the 3 coldest Winters in 100 years?”

    Sure, there was a cold snap some weeks ago but was has resulted since?

    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=EuropeanSummary

    Or is Piers still rattling the bones?

    Looks like he might have some explaining to do as to what has changed. That might be good, I would like to see more detail on his methods rather than just his bagging when he gets it right.

    More co-operation, less conflict perhaps all round ?

  11. funny bit about airport weather stations, depending on the model and agency responsible for the care and feeding of them, the operational limits are anywhere from +/- 1f to +/-2.7f.

  12. Southern Alberta is in the midst of a very nice chinook, 9C at my house (48 F), but we are about to get a cold draft starting tomorrow…and then right back into cold. But, its just weather….

  13. Theo Goodwin says:
    February 4, 2011 at 11:06 am

    Can someone recommend a website that has weather fronts on the home page along with a menu for temperature and all the other good stuff? Wunderground had that but has just remodeled and now makes you search for stuff.

    Here’s the new location on Weather Underground:

    http://www.wunderground.com/maps/

    Look under current conditions.

  14. Greetings from Tucson, AZ. Overnight low of 15 deg F. High was 36. This must also be “consistent with” (fanfare) GLOBAL WARMING.

    They take us for fools.

  15. It may be cold in most NA locations, but here in Alberta, we are pulling out our shorts. It is 9°C here!

  16. My wife is visiting a friend in New Mexico and some of the problems she’s had haven’t made it on to the news media I see.

    For a while Interstates 25 and 40 were both closed due to snow. These are major roads around Albuquerque, which was supposed to be a one night stop for Paula. Among the many low temperature records are several daily and all-time record lows, some by rather large amounts (those might not have long histories though). Santa Fe broke the daily record by 11°F (6°C) and equaled their all time record with a -18°F reading. (-28°C or so. Mental math.)

    See http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abq/?n=cliquickfeaturejan31-feb03_2011 for an analysis by the NWS.

    I see there’s a hard freeze warning in Tuscon AZ and environs today.

    Irony – Kitt Peak (home of major solar observatories) New Feb 3 record -2F, old record 18F in 1970). That’s the biggest offset listed the Tuscon NWS office.

  17. Mom2girls says:
    February 4, 2011 at 11:40 am
    classic.wunderground.com is still there. I don’t like the redo either.

    Of course, just like Coca-Cola. Yep, Classic for me. Thanks. By the way, do you see any rhyme or reason to the change?

  18. After 60 hours or so of below 0 F temps it’s finally OK here in CO Springs, near 40 F I think. Warm enough that we’ll be able to dry the basement out after the pipe burst Wednesday. Several weeks of contractors stomping through are looming, unfortunately.

    Mark

  19. Winter in Toronto, or as we Canuckistanis refer to it . . . the Center of the Universe.

  20. Theo: No idea for the change. I was surprised when I reloaded my home page there and got the new one. I’m an old fogie though and don’t like change.

  21. yep, I’m through with Kris Kuyper. He said a low of 32 the other night – when I got up the next morning my porch thermometers both registered mid-20’s and all my porch plants were very badly burned. If I’d known, I would have brought them in, and I would have covered my potatoes, which were also very badly burned.

    From now on, I will trust my own bones, which tried to tell me, but I listened to Kuyper! Doh!

  22. Chinook on in Calgary @8.7 C and looking good. Even Edmonton is at 6 C this afternoon. If this is AGW (like everyone else I too daydream) I suggest we north of the 49th need more, a whole heap more. I guess we will just need to live with the Jet laying a little south of us dragging all that warm air in from the Pacific.

  23. A little south of Calgary Alberta in Medicine Hat we have 6c today. 3 days ago we had
    -35c and tomorrow is supposed to be a high of -9c with 20-30cm of snow in the next 36 hours. >sigh< looks like our nice little chinnok was a bit short lived. We have had twice as much snow this year compared to normal for this time of year and the worst part is aside for a couple very short chinooks we haven'' had any melting. Anthing that does melt during the dy just turns to ice overnight. We had our first snow of the season in October and I haven't seen my lawn since.

  24. A more detailed map (maybe include twisterdata.com on your resource page) at http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=394&sounding.y=104&sndclick=n&prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=02&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=18&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=small&archive=false

    A quick summary forecast for
    * northern tier contiguous USA
    * Canada
    * Alaska
    * most of Greenland
    Includes colour-codes for temeperatures at 1800Z (1:00 PM EST) of the following day at… http://text.www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/jet_stream/index_e.html

  25. Looks like Winnipeg is in for colder than normal temps next week.

    I don’t know how to read charts but I enjoy looking at them.

  26. Tom T says:
    February 4, 2011 at 1:43 pm

    I’ll second that! The Gulf near my island home just reached 70°F for the first time since December. Running 5 or more degrees colder than I recall in my last ten years here for this date.

  27. Who is collecting that information? I live in the thumb of Michigan and can assure you there has been no RAIN or any facsimile thereof from Jan 28-Feb 4. It’s been colder than a titch’s wit.

    Rain? OMG.

  28. We were hoping for snow here in Houston, but all we got was a nice glazing of ice. Good for tow truck drivers, bad for mosquito larvae. I stocked up on instant hot chocolate, and I’ve got my (CO2 generating) candles ready for the next rolling blackout.

  29. Great editorial in snow bound Massachusetts….

    http://www.bostonherald.com/news/opinion/op_ed/view.bg?articleid=1314036

    “Reliable forecast under the weather” By Michael Graham

    ‘Meet the global weirdos. They’re the ones telling you that all the snow outside is proof that it’s getting warmer. Only, they don’t call it “warming” anymore. ‘

    My in-laws live in suburbs south of Boston… so much snow you can’t throw it high enough at the end of the driveway. They seem to get a break…. rain… but it can’t go anywhere and floods the roads, and THEN the temperature plummets!

    Regards,
    Bob

  30. Well Anthony, you ain’t just whoofin’.

    That map is still recording the warm one or two day from south Texas upward into Colorado that occurred about six days ago. Just wait till tommorrow or the next and that map will paint a really different picture!

    Trevor: it isn’t melting in the south plains either so no wonder it’s not melting up there in Canada. ☺

  31. Once The Met Office has got at it, the temperatures on the chart will be homogenised, value added, and then you will feel much warmer.
    At present in England, it is blowing a real storm and has been for the last two days, this of course is due to globa.climat…….rution, oh heck you fill in the reason.

  32. Neville gave a link to Andrew Bolt. Here are a few of Bolt’s words:

    “Wrong, Ross. We have actually seen all this before, and worse. Nothing new here at all, expect this shameless scare-mongering.
    But the trouble is that we no longer remember our past, and that’s what the warmists are exploiting: our deep forgetting.
    Take Channel 10 host George Negus, who told viewers this week that with an “apocalyptic” cyclone and floods in Queensland, and blizzards in the US, our climate had gone “haywire”.
    How easily even Negus, who has reported so much history, can forget.”

    Bolt lists several serious natural disasters.

    Truer words were never spoken. Climate Apocalypse is the daily drumbeat of the MSM, the Marxists, the Greens who are not Marxists, and the Warmista. This daily drumbeat is a horrid wrong that is being done to Western Civilization.

  33. http://www.sciencedaily.com/videos/2006/0205-harder_rain_more_snow.htm

    Harder Rain, More Snow
    Meteorologists See Future of Increasingly Extreme Weather Events

    February 1, 2006 — While raising average global temperatures, climate change could also bring more snow, harder rain, or heat waves, meteorologists say. Computer models based on climate data from nine countries indicate every place on the planet will be hit with extreme weather events, including coastal storms and floods.

  34. King of Cool says:
    February 4, 2011 at 11:52 am
    Please don’t get me wrong, I am definitely an AGW sceptic but what happened to the forecast of the Corbyn group’s “Europe freezing over and one of the 3 coldest Winters in 100 years?”
    ==========================================================

    You got a two week reprieve. Check your weather forecast for the next fortnight and get your skis out.

    http://www.timeanddate.com/weather/uk/london/ext

    Wayne in freezing rain about to go into the deepfreeze with more snow again Alberta, Canada

  35. Wow look at all those hot temperatures!!! Must be global warming!

    Oh, that’s Fahrenheit…

    When is the US going to join the rest of the world and scientific community?

  36. “Usually SoCal and South Texas at least have some warmth.”

    Before warming up slightly today in San Antonio, we had 48 hours where the temperature did not get above freezing. Been here 30+ years and don’t remember
    that occurring before.

    Last night some moisture from the Gulf mixed with the low temps, and sections of South Texas got freezing rain and/or snow.

    Does San Antonio UHI show up in these radar screen captures?

  37. So, this is how an ice age starts?

    And, for the record, we have light snow indicated on the KFWS WSR-88D moving south into the county to my north as it ‘rotates’ about a center in Oklahoma …

    .

  38. Here in NW Arkansas, we had a record high on Saturday in the mid 70s. A blizzard on Tuesday, Record low around -5 on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. And today on Friday, they were calling for a dusting to 1 inch of snow, instead we got 5.5 inches.

    And of course they dont salt or plow the roads…so all the roads are SOLID ice…. im from Michigan, and im terrified of driving here even with an inch of snow, 3 days after the main blizzard, and the MAIN roads, even the interstate was snow covered, to grooved ice…and now we have another half foot about on top of it…..oh..and snow on Sunday….and another major storm looks like Wednesday still too early to figure out that one though…

    This really sucks, ive missed 4 days of work already cause of this crap.

  39. It will be interesting to see how any years of continuing increased cold that the CO2 Global Warming Believers will say, “Weather isn’t Climate!!!”. How many years of cold and at what point do these believers begin to question the Global Warming Theory?

  40. Wonder what those temperature anomalies will look like when they’re smoothed with GISS’s 1200km filter? Of course anything more than 5 standard deviations from the norm are removed, first 8-{

  41. King of Cool

    Piers Corbyn said he didn’t take the westerly into account well enough for January. Do you know anyone who is better than 85%? Please tell me about them if you do.

  42. jrwakefield says:
    February 4, 2011 at 4:57 pm

    Wow look at all those hot temperatures!!! Must be global warming!

    Oh, that’s Fahrenheit…

    When is the US going to join the rest of the world and scientific community?

    =============================================================

    We tried metric system in the 70’s. We didn’t like it. It’s over.

  43. Nothing unusual about this winter’s cold, except that cold air has poured into areas where it is rarely cold (New Mexico, Texas, Mexico). Although this winter has averaged slightly below the latest 30-year “normal” in Minnesota, it is still warmer than all of the past 30-year normals, and in the Twin Cities the number of sub-zero nights is less than half of the long-term average.

    The arctic has been very warm this winter, along with Siberia. A below-normal winter has not been seen in the arctic since the mid-1990s. Weird.

    By the way, carbon dioxide traps heat.

  44. I was looking at some weather news for my town over at weather dot com, and stumbled into the blogs by thier expert meteorologists. Found a recent posting by Stu Ostro that discussed some problems in computer based weather modelling.

    What surprised me was not that there were bad results, but rather they clearly admitted major problems in computer modelling even something as simple as predicting weather 2 weeks away. Now enlarge this to predicting Climate using the same flawed models.

    I understand that this is not news here, but maybe they are begining to acknowledge that it’s time to go clothes shopping, not merely because its cold, but that they dont have any on. The First Step to correcting a problem is admitting that you have a problem. Call it a sign that some of these folks are entering the 12 step program to kicking the AGW habit.

    One quote is here, but you gotta read the whole thing, and they give some graphs and links there.
    “….Now detailed forecast graphics and data are available out to 10-16 days (and easily accessible to anyone with a computer and an Internet connection). That can be both a blessing and a curse. It has brought tremendous advances in the ability to give people a heads-up about high-impact weather events relatively far into the future, but also can lead to an unrealistic expectation of certainty and precision very far in advance; and it can even create a viral frenzy over every possible storm, some of which reach their full potential or even “overachieve,” while others end up “underachieving” or not ever even happening at all. Those models’ realistic-looking visualizations can lead to an illusion of accuracy and predictability…”

  45. Al Gore should consult the UEA supercomputer (aka GIGGLES the Supercomputer) for a fresh 3 month forecast.

    Rumor has it, last time they asked GIGGLES, it said “Take my wife, please!”

  46. jrwakefield says:
    February 4, 2011 at 4:57 pm

    Wow look at all those hot temperatures!!! Must be global warming!

    Oh, that’s Fahrenheit…

    When is the US going to join the rest of the world and scientific community?
    —————————-
    This is why carpenters from Ontario can’t get a job in BC; they think a 2X4 is a 50.8 X101.6.

  47. I’m not sure what time of day these were recorded but Saskatoon got up to +3C = 37F today [with occasional light rain]. So we beat Atlanta. Sorry Georgians, but that kind of makes me giggle.

  48. Gordon in Minnesota

    If carbon dioxide traps heat, could you explain to me why no engineers have ever developed a system wherein ‘pure’ CO2 is pumped through something like a solar array, thereby trapping and amplifying solar energy?
    Think of all the energy we could generate from this harmful waste product…the trapped heat could be used to drive steam turbines and generators – wow!

    My god…why has no one thought of this before…Carbon Dioxide Traps Heat….so let’s use it to do just that, let’s use its heat amplification/trapping ability, which is so SIGNIFICANT that at 400pm it can warm an entire ATMOSPHERE – so imagine its heat trapping capacity, pure and at atmospheric pressure…it must be awesome!

    And there’s no shortage of carbon dioxide…it’s like the ultimate in recycling, the more CO2 we trap the more energy we generate…my god this is wonderful…CO2 saves the day!

    Hurray!
    Uhmm.

  49. It’s always Marcia, Marcia says:
    February 4, 2011 at 6:35 pm
    King of Cool

    Piers Corbyn said he didn’t take the westerly into account well enough for January. Do you know anyone who is better than 85%? Please tell me about them if you do.

    I am sceptical about this claimed 85% success rate. I followed Corbyn’s forecasts for a while and I reckon he was right arounfd 60% of the time.

    The fact is we (in central england) haven’t seen so much as a single snowflake fall since a week before chistmas.

    [Reply - it’s not the snow most of us will remember, but the extreme and prolonged cold – a week before Christmas, temperatures in Central England were lucky to get above freezing during the day and the thaw really only set in three days after Christmas. ~jove, mod]

  50. “Oh, that’s Fahrenheit…”

    Fahrenheit is actually better for everyday personal use. It gives finer gradations in temperature. Celsius is too crude and the gaps between marks too large. Celsius is like trying to thread a needle with mittens.

  51. BBC were today headlining new of freezing weather in Mexico:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-12370717

    Temps down to -18 C (0 F), coldest period for 40 years.

    “There have been cold temperatures in the past, but nothing that has lasted for so many days. It’s been 40 years since the city has seen an emergency like this,” city’s civil protection chief Efren Matamoros told Reuters news agency. (Quoted from BBC article.)

  52. John Finn says:
    February 5, 2011 at 3:55 am

    [Reply – it’s not the snow most of us will remember, but the extreme and prolonged cold – a week before Christmas, temperatures in Central England were lucky to get above freezing during the day and the thaw really only set in three days after Christmas. ~jove, mod]

    Quite – but Corbyn had predicted much of the same for january. This clearly never happened. In the last fwew days we’ve had daytime temperatures into double figures (Celsius). February is also part of winter. This winter will probably end up “colder than normal” but it doesn’t look like being the record breaker that was being suggested a while back.

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