It has been awhile since I posted a Sea Ice News. This one is a two parter. NSIDC’s Monthly Sea Ice News comes first, followed by some images and content I find interesting. Kudos to NSIDC for flagging the AO instead of “climate change” for the low January extent. – Anthony
From NSIDC:
Arctic Oscillation brings record low January extent, unusual mid-latitude weather
Arctic sea ice extent for January 2011 was the lowest in the satellite record for that month. The Arctic oscillation persisted in its strong negative phase for most of the month, keeping ice extent low.
Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for January 2011 was 13.55 million square kilometers (5.23 million square miles). The magenta line shows the 1979 to 2000 median extent for that month. The black cross indicates the geographic North Pole. Sea Ice Index data. About the data.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data CenterHigh-resolution image
Overview of conditions
Arctic sea ice extent averaged over January 2011 was 13.55 million square kilometers (5.23 million square miles). This was the lowest January ice extent recorded since satellite records began in 1979. It was 50,000 square kilometers (19,300 square miles) below the record low of 13.60 million square kilometers (5.25 million square miles), set in 2006, and 1.27 million square kilometers (490,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average.
Ice extent in January 2011 remained unusually low in Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait (between southern Baffin Island and Labrador), and Davis Strait (between Baffin Island and Greenland). Normally, these areas freeze over by late November, but this year Hudson Bay did not completely freeze over until mid-January. The Labrador Sea remains largely ice-free.
Figure 2. The graph above shows daily Arctic sea ice extent as of January 31, 2011, along with daily ice extents for previous low-ice-extent years in the month of January. Light blue indicates 2010-2011, green shows 2005-2006 (the record low for the month was in 2006), and dark gray shows the 1979 to 2000 average. The gray area around the average line shows the two standard deviation range of the data. Sea Ice Index data.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data CenterHigh-resolution image
Conditions in context
Air temperatures over much of the Arctic were 2 to 6 degrees Celsius (4 to 11 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal in January. Over the eastern Canadian Arctic Archipelago, Baffin Bay/Davis Strait and Labrador Sea, temperatures were at least 6 degrees Celsius (11 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than average. Temperatures were near average over the western Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Scandinavia.
As in December 2010, the warm temperatures in January came from two sources: unfrozen areas of the ocean continued to release heat to the atmosphere, and the wind patterns accompanying the negative phase of the Arctic oscillation brought warm air into the Arctic. Near the end of January the negative Arctic oscillation pattern broke down and turned positive, which usually favors ice growth. It is unclear how long it will remain in a positive mode.
Figure 3. Monthly January ice extent for 1979 to 2011 shows a decline of 3.3% per decade.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data CenterHigh-resolution image
January 2011 compared to past yearsJanuary 2011 had the lowest ice extent for the month since the beginning of satellite records. The linear rate of decline for the month is –3.3% per decade.
Ice extent for the Arctic as a whole increased at an average of 42,800 square kilometers (16,500 square miles) per day through the month of January, which is about average.
Figure 4. This graph shows the ice extent in Hudson Bay from late November to the end of January, for the last five years. This year, Hudson Bay froze up substantially later than in previous years. MASIE data.
—Credit: NSIDC /NIC MASIE ProductHigh-resolution image
Slow regional ice growth
In contrast, regional ice growth has been particularly slow compared to past years. Hudson Bay did not completely freeze up until mid-January, about a month later than normal according to Canadian Ice Service analyses. The Labrador Sea region is still largely free of ice, except in protected bays along the coast. Normally at this time of year, ice extends several hundred kilometers from the coast all the way to northern Nova Scotia.
Figure 5. These images show high and low atmospheric pressure patterns for January 2011 (left) and the January 1968-1996 average (right). Yellows and reds show higher pressures; blues and purples indicate lower pressures, as indicated by the height of the 850 millibar pressure level above the surface, called the pressure surface. Normally, the pressure surface is nearer to the surface around the pole, winds follow the pressure contours around the pole (the polar vortex), and cold air is trapped in the Arctic. This year, the pressure pattern is allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic into the mid-latitudes.
—Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA/ESRL PSDHigh-resolution image
Potential links with mid-latitude weather
While the Arctic has been warm, cold and stormy weather has affected much of the Northeast U.S. and Europe. Last winter also paired an anomalously warm Arctic with cold and snowy weather for the eastern U.S. and northern Europe. Is there a connection?
Warm conditions in the Arctic and cold conditions in northern Europe and the U.S. are linked to the strong negative mode of the Arctic oscillation. Cold air is denser than warmer air, so it sits closer to the surface. Around the North Pole, this dense cold air causes a circular wind pattern called the polar vortex , which helps keep cold air trapped near the poles. When sea ice has not formed during autumn and winter, heat from the ocean escapes and warms the atmosphere. This may weaken the polar vortex and allow air to spill out of the Arctic and into mid-latitude regions in some years, bringing potentially cold winter weather to lower latitudes.
Some scientists have speculated that more frequent episodes of a negative Arctic Oscillation, and the stormy winters that result, are linked to the loss of sea ice in the Arctic. Dr. James Overland of NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) recently noted a link between low sea ice and a weak polar vortex in 2005, 2008, and the past two winters, all years with very low September sea ice extent. Earlier work by Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University and colleagues also suggested a relationship between autumn sea ice levels and mid-latitude winter conditions. Judah Cohen, at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., and his colleagues propose another idea—a potential relationship between early snowfall in northern Siberia, a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, and more extreme winters elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere. More research on these ideas may shed light on the connections and have the potential to improve seasonal weather forecasting.
Further reading
Francis, J.A., Chan, W-H., Leathers, D.J., Miller, J.R., Veron, D.E., 2009. Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.
Overland, J.E., Wang, M-Y., 2010. Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus 62A, 1-9.
Cohen, J., J. Foster, M. Barlow, K. Saito, and J. Jones, 2010. Winter 2009-2010: A case study of an extreme Arctic Oscillation event. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L17707, doi:10.1029/2010GL044256.
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NSIDC is correct about Hudson Bay. It took a longer time to freeze up this year.
JAXA extent shows 2011 about the same as 2010 right now – click for a large image
I would also add this NSIDC image, which shows that some of the areas missing ice extent are well outside of the Arctic circle, south of Greenland. This is consequence of the Arctic Oscillation and weather effects in the region.
I do find the NAVY PIPS ice thickness data interesting though. I’ve animated the Feb 1st plots from 2007 through 2011 together:
The way I read it, above 80°N to the pole, we have an increase in thickness and an increase in expanse of thicker ice since 2009. The pressure ridges from wind driven ice pushed up against Greenland also seem to have minimized a bit on 2011. If this is the case, this may have some implications for the 2011 summer minimum.
You can plot individual dates here and do your own comparisons.
See more on the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page here
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“I do find the NAVY PIPS ice thickness data interesting though.”
Great post and perspective on the “ice loss”.
What ice loss and how in the world can they refer to -10 to -30 F as warm? They are right about the Hudson Bay and Davis Strait but we’ve had a High positioned near the Davis Strait for most of the winter and SST slightly above freezing.
The stories about how open water in the Arctic are causing extreme winter weather is nonsense. What open water, the Arctic froze over very early this year and, as the Navy plots show (via your great animation), has increased in ice thickness over previous years.
The AO connection is interesting but they haven’t updated the AO anomaly chart on their site since November so its been difficult to follow. I guess its secret “stuff” ; )
AO:
http://ioc-goos-oopc.org/state_of_the_ocean/atm/ao.php
What do you think about the fact that the NSIDC, on its main image, has depicted the Sea of Bohai as ice-free the last two years even though Chinese media has reported it as half ice-covered?
I know the Sea of Bohai is not in the Arctic, but when the NSIDC portrays a section of the world’s northern oceans as blue, when in fact some 35,000 square kilometers are icebound, doesn’t that call in to question their data?
Arctic sea ice appears to be doing fine; increasing in thickness and spread in recent years. Sea ice loss has occurred almost entirely in the southerly regions, well beyond the Arctic Circle. When discussing this subject, would it not be more correct to refer to “Northern Hemisphere” rather than “Arctic” sea ice?
Another negative feedback system fighting GW: Less polar ice means more heat escapes the ocean, heats the air, then is radiated out to space. Warmer air temps for now, less heat in the system in the long run.
Also a negative feedback for GW: Lack of ice in the Arctic may raise albedo this winter, but so what?……There is no sunshine in the winter up there. Meanwhile, more cold and snow in the mid-latitudes, lowering the albedo where the sun still shines.
Along with increased tropical thunderstorms (if they are really occurring) and increased cloud cover as the warmer oceans transfer moisure to the air, many of the Earth’s climate subsystems seem to have negative feedbacks built in, as it were.
Makes sense, since the Earth’s climate has been quite stable for eons, hence must be dominated overall by negative feedback.
It’ll be interesting to see where this puts the sea ice extent trend line over the next few years.
Could this data support the idea of global warming?
The fringes of the icecap are obviously more susceptible to weather patterns, like the AO, and are not very informative about climate. Even the core of the cap is susceptible to atmospheric and ocean oscillations, but perhaps not as much as the periphery. Since the core of the cap has been thickening for the last 4 years, I believe it is safe to say that the current trend is in opposition to the AGW theory.
John from CA;
AO data is regularly updated here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml
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I’ve already posted this in tips and notes, but Cryosat-2’s data was released on the 1st:
http://earth.esa.int/object/index.cfm?fobjectid=6842
There’s a hell of a lot of it though, so I think there’ll be a long wait for reality to replace the models.
An excellent update…though I would still be suspect of putting too much stock in projecting anything based on the PIPS 2.0 model data. It is after all, just a model, but fortunately we’ll have real CryoSat 2 data in the near future and then can get some meaningful estimates on sea ice volume.
2011 will definitely be a very interesting year for Arctic Sea ice.
As usual the cart before the horses: now the atmospheric circulation is caused by the change in ice coverage when in fact this is the reverse. Since it warming so much, perhaps they’ll explain the 1045hPa high pressure on the entire continental US…
Looking at the “Sea Ice Page” here at WUWT, the ’07 comp to ’11, on the
“Chryosphere” today section, is it my lyin’ eyes or is there a thicker ice pack?
Is the quiet sun causing the negative AO or
Is the negative AO a result of a ‘warmer’ Arctic or
Something else ?
The Polar Ice Center has a new movie showing an arctic sea ice thickening model/movie from March to September 2010 based on the PIOMAS model.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/zhang/IDAO/seasonal_outlook.html.
They say “The ensemble predictions are constructed by using the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric forcing from the previous 7 years (corresponding to 7 ensemble members) and the PIOMAS retrospectively estimated, with assimilation of satellite ice concentration data, ice and ocean conditions at a given date at which ensemble predictions start.”
It clearly disagrees with the PIPS2 model and sounds like they are using GCM’s. I have to believe that if researchers have already released ocean surface topographic maps of the Arctic Ocean from cryostat 2 data then sea ice volume maps have also likely beeen made but are for some suspicious reason have not been released.
On the polar ice site is an NAO vs sea ice volume hindcast model that appears to tell us from past history that the sea ice volume should build during NAO.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/zhang/IDAO/retro.html#NAO
With the current NAO looking like it did in the 1960’s we should be building ice.
http://ioc3.unesco.org/oopc/state_of_the_ocean/atm/nao.php
I predict that the PIOMAS model will soon be headed for the same circular file that the CRU climate prediction model is now.
Interesting paper signalled by world climate report:
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2011/01/31/arctic-ice-tipping-point-rejected/
Based on reports here, the okhotsk sea has experienced unusually thick ice for the time of year. If the Russians, experts at navigating ice-bound seas, are getting their ice-breakers stuck then what does that tell us?
kwinterkorn says:
February 3, 2011 at 8:00 am
“Another negative feedback system fighting GW: Less polar ice means more heat escapes the ocean, heats the air, then is radiated out to space. Warmer air temps for now, less heat in the system in the long run.”
The decrease in ice coverage in Winter is around 10% since 1980, thats 10% more sea surface to lose heat.
The decrease in ice coverage in Summer is around 30%, thats 30% more sea surface to GAIN heat from the Sun
The balance of which is greater will be down to the relative temperatures of the ice and open ocean in winter which will affect the amount of energy radiated proportional to T^4 (T in Kelvins).
And the relative albedo in the solar spectrum of ice/ocean when absorption of energy is happening in the summer.
Has anyone got figures or a link for these energy flows?
Sea ice volume buildup is something the climate modelers desperately want to avoid because of its effect on their global heat budget. Hansen etal. used sea ice volume loss to explain some of the missing heat. In other words if the TOA imbalance is 1 watt/meter and the ocean can only account for .8 watts/meter then they want say that .2 went to melting the ice. If the sea ice volume builds rapidly then the ice is releasing heat and then needs to be subtracted from their estimate of heat accumulation in the ocean.
For instance if Argo demonstrates that there has been no accumulation of heat in the ocean for several years while the sea ice volume is rapidly building then then this heat released by the building ice must be subtracted from the Argo calculations to reveal cooling. Somebody recently estimated that up to one trillion cubic feet of ice may have been added over the last two years. Maybe somebody here can calculate how much heat was released in terms of watts/meter.
Rapid sea ice volume buildup will turn AGW on its head.
OK, I give up, not sure what I’m looking at. Where is the Sea of Okhotsk on the first sea ice extent map?
Does the PIPS animation mean that multiyear ice is also increasing? There was a time when all we heard about was its decline.
YOU’RE ALL WRONG! I heard this on BBC Radio 4 today:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/series/costearth
According to this programme, we’re well on the way to an ice-free Arctic with lots of mineral extraction opportunities arising.
That’s interesting! What about the Antartica Ice?
REPLY: Covered in our Sea Ice page 24/7/365, note the link at the end of the article – A
R Gates
“It is after all, just a model, but fortunately we’ll have real ………. data in the near future and then can get some meaningful estimates….”
Just about sums up my scepticism about the whole global warming industry.
izen says:
February 3, 2011 at 9:23 am
“Has anyone got figures or a link for these energy flows?”
The linked paper discusses the energy flux in the arctic in detail.
http://nome.colorado.edu/HARC/Readings/Barry2.pdf
One thing that is missing in this discussion is the heat flow from the sea water to the sea ice during the melt season which would cool the sea water. The melt flux is considered to be part of the albedo!
As an off topic side note, while Arctic sea ice is low, the Great Lakes are freezing to a degree greater than predicted.
The North American Ice Service has a report predicting the seasonal outlook for the Great Lakes for winter 2010-2011 at:
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/special/great_lakes/2010/seasonal_outlook/text_with_graphics/great_lakes_seasonal_outlook_2010-2011.pdf
The report discusses the bases for the prediction and Page 8 shows the predicted ice cover for February 1 2011.
Actual ice cover for February 1 2011 can be observed online.
Eastern lakes:
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/special/great_lakes/2011/charts/composite_east/el110201color.jpg
Western Lakes:
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/special/great_lakes/2011/charts/composite_west/wl110201color.jpg
Erie has frozen solid already and the other lakes also exhibit greater freezing than predicted. It appears that this La Nina is bringing colder temperatures over the Great Lakes and more severe than normal ice conditions contrary to the predictions on page 4 of the report.
Future updates to actual ice cover can be tracked at:
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/products/great_lakes.html
richcar 1225 says:
February 3, 2011 at 9:36 am
“Somebody recently estimated that up to one trillion cubic feet of ice may have been added over the last two years. Maybe somebody here can calculate how much heat was released in terms of watts/meter.”
In 2008 GODAS added the OLR anomoly for the arctic into their monthly briefing.
For Nov. 2010 the anomoly was ~10 W/m^2 positive for OLR. [Page 21]
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_2010_12.pdf
For Dec. 2010 the anomoly was ~5 W/m^2 positive for OLR. [Page 20]
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_2011_01.pdf
The full archive is available at:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_archive_pdf.shtml
FergalR says:
February 3, 2011 at 8:07 am
John from CA;
AO data is regularly updated here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml
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Thanks FergalR!
Myrrh says:
February 3, 2011 at 9:36 am
OK, I give up, not sure what I’m looking at. Where is the Sea of Okhotsk on the first sea ice extent map?
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Sea of Okhotsk is the top portion of figure 1 above the Bering Strait.
Key location for extreme up and down welling and proposed in one study I ran across as a key location for iron seeding the Pacific. Lack of seasonal ice in the Sea of Okhotsk was tied to decreased seasonal iron in the Pacific.