This is something you really don’t expect to see this far into solar cycle 24.
But there it is, the Solar Dynamics Observatory satellite shows the sun as a cueball:
The Ap index being zero, indicates that the sun’s magnetic field is low, and its magneto is idling rather than revving up as it should be on the way to solar max. True, it’s just a couple of data points, but as NOAA’s SWPC predicts the solar cycle, we should be further along instead of having a wide gap:
The Ap index generally follows along with the sunspot count, which is a proxy of solar activity.
And here’s the daily Ap geomagnetic data. The Ap is bumping along the bottom:
![solar[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/solar1.gif?resize=582%2C498)
The long term Ap has been on a downtrend, ever since there was a step change in October 2005:
The overall data looks pretty anemic:
This page is normally updated once a day by Jan Alvestad. All values are preliminary.
[Solar Terrestrial Activity Report]
h/t to Joe D’Aleo and thanks to Jan Alvestad for keeping this data and plotting it.
Solar and geomagnetic data (last month)
| Date | Measured
solar flux |
Sunspot number | Planetary A index | K indices (3-hour intervals) | Min-max solar wind speed (km/sec) | Number of flares (events) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STAR | NOAA | STAR | NOAA | Daily low – high | Planetary | Boulder | C | M | X | |||
| 20101222 | 77.7 | 12 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0-0 | 00000000 | 00001100 | 287-381 | |||
| 20101221 | 77.9 | 12 | 0 | 1.3 | 1 | 0-3 | 01001000 | 11101100 | 347-457 | |||
| 20101220 | 77.9 | 12 | 0 | 8.5 | 8 | 3-18 | 13222223 | 13222223 | 346-479 | |||
| 20101219 | 80.9 | 11 | 0 | 1.4 | 1 | 0-6 | 10000002 | 11000112 | 345-415 | |||
| 20101218 | 80.5 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2 | 0-5 | 11001001 | 11101211 | 353-446 | |||
| 20101217 | 81.6 | 11 | 11 | 3.1 | 3 | 0-7 | 21001111 | 31001221 | 383-524 | |||
| 20101216 | 84.1 | 11 | 23 | 4.6 | 5 | 0-9 | 21210111 | 21220221 | 433-567 | |||
| 20101215 | 86.9 | 22 | 11 | 8.9 | 9 | 3-27 | 34111111 | 44222211 | 544-655 | 1 | ||
| 20101214 | 90.3 | 34 | 33 | 11.1 | 11 | 5-18 | 12233323 | 13233323 | 491-757 | 1 | ||
| 20101213 | 87.7 | 49 | 46 | 5.4 | 5 | 2-9 | 22200022 | 32211212 | 385-611 | |||
| 20101212 | 89.4 | 52 | 23 | 3.8 | 4 | 0-15 | 00001312 | 00001422 | 293-445 | |||
| 20101211 | 86.9 | 23 | 25 | 0.9 | 1 | 0-3 | 00000001 | 01001001 | 284-354 | |||
| 20101210 | 88.4 | 40 | 33 | 0.3 | 0 | 0-2 | 00000000 | 00000110 | 321-349 | |||
| 20101209 | 86.8 | 54 | 22 | 1.8 | 2 | 0-3 | 11000001 | 11200110 | 341-404 | |||
| 20101208 | 87.2 | 48 | 22 | 2.8 | 3 | 0-7 | 11001021 | 12111222 | 337-445 | |||
| 20101207 | 87.1 | 31 | 34 | 3.9 | 4 | 2-7 | 10102111 | 01112211 | 342-385 | |||
| 20101206 | 88.5 | 28 | 35 | 2.4 | 2 | 0-4 | 00011111 | 01121121 | 269-351 | |||
| 20101205 | 87.9 | 42 | 47 | 0.8 | 1 | 0-4 | 00000001 | 00011101 | 270-274 | |||
| 20101204 | 87.4 | 52 | 48 | 0.6 | 1 | 0-3 | 00100000 | 00101010 | 270-314 | |||
| 20101203 | 86.8 | 47 | 27 | 1.1 | 1 | 0-5 | 01000000 | 02000000 | 270-337 | |||
| 20101202 | 86.5 | 38 | 32 | 2.6 | 3 | 0-6 | 21001000 | 11000110 | 339-360 | |||
| 20101201 | 86.5 | 44 | 25 | 1.8 | 2 | 0-4 | 10000011 | 10100210 | 338-358 | 1 | ||
| 20101130 | 86.4 | 36 | 24 | 3.0 | 3 | 2-4 | 01011110 | 12021110 | 345-402 | |||
| 20101129 | 82.5 | 24 | 31 | 3.1 | 3 | 0-5 | 00111110 | 01221111 | 348-437 | |||
| 20101128 | 80.1 | 34 | 34 | 6.1 | 6 | 0-12 | 22101231 | 23212221 | 384-460 | |||
| 20101127 | 76.5 | 38 | 11 | 11.9 | 12 | 0-67 | 00001164 | 00001243 | 294-520 | |||
| 20101126 | 76.2 | 12 | 23 | 1.6 | 2 | 0-4 | 00001111 | 00001110 | 344-390 | |||
| 20101125 | 77.9 | 25 | 22 | 3.6 | 4 | 2-6 | 12111110 | 02112110 | 382-477 | |||
| 20101124 | 75.8 | 23 | 11 | 4.4 | 4 | 3-6 | 11111122 | 11221221 | 426-518 | |||
| 20101123 | 75.3 | 12 | 12 | 7.8 | 8 | 3-15 | 21311332 | 21312321 | 452-537 | |||
This page is normally updated once a day by Jan Alvestad. All values are preliminary.
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Is anyone besides me worrying about the real consequences of a severe, long term minimum? I want to cheer as the aun goes quiet and the globe cools, but a good part of me is quite apprehensive as to what this could mean to mankind.
No no! It’s not zero! We just can’t measure it with our current instruments! Wait, wait, here’s a better device, ok, now we can go back and re-measure, re-calibrate, recount and restate all of the numbers again, as far back as we want! I mean, had we had this device back in 2010, surely we would’ve counted it…
/sarcasm
Science is a bitch, sometimes.
Now here would be a great time to get some geo-engineering project proposals to break up blocking highs over Greenland. The cost of a hard winter in North America and Europe has got to be billions and billions. For greenies just think how much extra fossil fuel is being used to keep a billion people in heated dwellings.
Of course Greenlanders might have some objections. Their heating bills are substantially reduced and who knows – if it keeps up they can keep cattle like the Vikings once did. Maybe even grow apples too.
In the meantime people who aren’t old enough to remember what the winters were like 40 or more years ago are getting their first taste. Hey look, Mikey doesn’t like it!
Max amplitude 50-60. Carbon copy of the Dalton. Interesting times, indeed…..
i guess more cosmic rays must be getting in!
@DoctorJJ “Is anyone besides me worrying about the real consequences of a severe, long term minimum? I want to cheer as the aun goes quiet and the globe cools, but a good part of me is quite apprehensive as to what this could mean to mankind.”
You SHOULD not be. You SHOULD be worried about Global Warming, not a bit of cooling. Think of the havoc Global Warming WOULD have caused throughout Europe and Brittan, had they got the expected and forecast warm winter, and not the few inches of snow and slightly cooler temperatures that they are having.
Whose afraid of the big bad snow and ice?
Al Gore explained it to me best. He said that man’s use of fossil fuels is causing the sun’s spin to go out of whack, which makes… I can’t remember it all, but the important thing is that we need to stop using oil. He sounded pretty confident about it.
Wal Thornhill writes:
“Sunspots are dark instead of bright, which is prima facie evidence that heat is not trying to escape from within. And the Sun’s corona is millions of degrees hotter than the photosphere. These simple observations point to the energy source of the Sun being external. Add to this the dominant influence of magnetic fields on the Sun’s external behavior and we arrive at the necessity for an electrical energy supply. It is the “subtle radiation traversing space which the star picks up,” and which Eddington immediately dismissed because his gravitational model required energy to be generated at the core of the star to bloat it to the observed size.”
Eugene Parker writes:
“[T]he pedestrian Sun exhibits a variety of phenomena that defy contemporary theoretical understanding. We need look no farther than the sunspot, or the intensely filamentary structure of the photospheric magnetic field, or the spicules, or the origin of the small magnetic bipoles that continually emerge in the supergranules, or the heat source that maintains the expanding gas in the coronal hole, or the effective magnetic diffusion that is so essential for understanding the solar dynamo, or the peculiar internal rotation inferred from helioseismology, or the variation of solar brightness with the level of solar activity, to name a few of the more obvious mysterious macrophysical phenomena exhibited by the Sun.”
More from Wal Thornhill …
“Countless billions of dollars have been wasted based on the thermonuclear model of stars. For example, trying to generate electricity from thermonuclear fusion, “just like the Sun.” The thought that solar scientists have it completely backwards has not troubled anyone’s imagination. The little fusion power that has been generated on Earth has required phenomenal electric power input, “just like the Sun!” The Sun and all stars consume electrical energy to produce their heat and light and cause some thermonuclear fusion in their atmospheres. The heavy elements formed there are seen in stellar spectra. It explains why the expected solar neutrino count is low and anti-correlated with sunspot numbers. It explains why many stars are considered “chemically peculiar.” Get the physics right first and the mathematics will follow.”
(These quotes come from “Our Misunderstood Sun” at http://www.holoscience.com/news.php?article=ah63dzac, and are intended to remind people that putting sugar sprinkles onto a turd does not make it taste or smell any better. We need to be looking at errors in the foundational assumptions that go into these models.)
REPLY: “And the Sun’s corona is millions of degrees hotter than the photosphere. These simple observations point to the energy source of the Sun being external. ”
Really? What rubbish. – Anthony
Not yet. CO2 is still increasing, so we should be ok :p.
I don’t suppose this will do anything to stop the flood of legal immigrants from New York to Texas. A little 2010 census humor there.
What’s behind the rise of Texas?
[link was missing target URL, so I edited out the HTML that was broken. -MOD-e]
You know this Solar Cycle reminds me of that Monty Python Dead Parrot Routine.
So is old Sol pining for the fjords?
The graph is too noisy to take any kind of “aha” moment… it’s still very possible for the graph to catch up to the prediction. Check the spikes.
DoctorJJ says:
December 23, 2010 at 10:10 am
“Is anyone besides me worrying about the real consequences of a severe, long term minimum? I want to cheer as the aun goes quiet and the globe cools, but a good part of me is quite apprehensive as to what this could mean to mankind.”
The effect I think would be best described as sobering. Humbling might fit well too.
This is mother nature giving us a bitch slap. At least it isn’t a supervolcano, large asteroid strike, or record setting coronal mass ejection. There’s far worse that can happen. At least we can probably predict an asteroid strike and do something to prevent it. And we could prepare for a big CME. Supervolcano – we’re probably screwed, glued, and tatooed there.
The very least of my worries is global warming. World War III ranks above global warming. Hell I’m cheering for global warming! Call me weird but I prefer plants and animals to barren ice and rock.
re; missing link to CNN article
Darn. I hate when that happens.
http://www.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/12/23/navarrette.texas.growth/
Leif, any insights? Is this just a temporary flagging? I would have to guess it is, but it is nonetheless worrisome.
It reminds me a bit of an old car I used to have that would have a problem starting up in cold weather. There was always that worrisome moment of “will she?”/”won’t she” as I listened to the motor turn over, trying to catch. I feel much the same here with Old Sol. I hope she starts up again.
Re: “REPLY: “And the Sun’s corona is millions of degrees hotter than the photosphere. These simple observations point to the energy source of the Sun being external. ”
Really? What rubbish. – Anthony”
Anthony, you’re making a critical error here.
REPLY: “And the Sun’s corona is millions of degrees hotter than the photosphere. These simple observations point to the energy source of the Sun being external. ”
Really? What rubbish. – Anthony
Perhaps it would be better to say that they point to the distinct possibility that the current model of the sun’s function is incorrect.
How many denials are we going to hear from the AGW crowd when the price of firewood and heating oil skyrockets during the next mini-Ice Age??? Oh, that’s right… it’s all just ‘climate change’ and ‘local weather’.
@anthony
Do you think we’re in for an increase in La Ninas due to the solar slumber?
They cause droughts here in Texas. Bad ones. This one is no exception. California gets the floods instead. I’d rather have floods than droughts.
We in the UK have just had a trial run. Won’t be so bad as long as we don’t expect to go anywhere or do anything.
Hopefully nature will give us another couple of winters trial preparation to adjust to the changes.
Anyone for skiing on the Kent coast?
I’m thinking ski-doo trecks along the Thames, past the Houses of Parliament.
I tell ya, I’m really starting to believe there is such a thing as universal karma.
Is the curve of Predicted Values the original, adjusted, adjusted adjusted prediction?
For comparing of solar cycles 1…24 I made a small diagram http://www.dh7fb.de/ssnano/image003.gif in this way:
I took the monthly ssn-data from here http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/greenwch/spot_num.txt and the data of the beginning of the solar cycles and constructed an “average solar cycle”. After this I calculated the monthly anomaly of solar-cycles 1…24 and the “accumulated SSN Anomaly” (ASSNA) since the beginning of all the cycles after 23 month ( December 2008…November 2010) are the data for the diagram. I’ll update the figure every month. Maybe it’s interesting to see the development of SC24 in relation to the cycles b4 .
best wishes and merry Xmess DH7FB
@teh article
> The Ap index being zero, indicates that the sun’s magnetic field is low.
Actually, the Ap index (and its logarithmic cousin Kp) are strictly measures of fluctuations in the Earth’s magnetic field, not the solar magnetic field. It is a measure of tiny changes in the Earth’s magnetic field, caused by interaction with Earth’s ionosphere and plasmasphere, and indirectly with the Sun through interaction with the solar wind, a magnetized stream of electrons and protons.
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/geomag/kp_ap.html
These magnetic perturbations of the Earth’s magnetic field (~ 50,000 nano-teslas [nt]) are on the order of a few nt. A magnetic storm is a period of high fluctuation, as much as 500nt, caused by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and such.
Think of geomagnetic storms as magnetic “quakes”, analogous to earthquakes, except the magnetic field is trembling, not the ground.
So the title of this article “Solar Geomagnetic Ap Index Hits Zero” is a misnomer and should read “Terrestrial Geomagnetic Ap Index Hits Zero”, and even that is a bit redundant, geomagnetic says it all
The really frightening thought is this:
If this low internal solar activity really is a valid correlate with a cooling Sun delivering less energy to the Earth, and if it lasts for some time, and if we really are facing a rapid global cold snap analogous to a Maunder or Dalton minimum, there is no course of action that would be LESS well suited to that than the current model of investing heavily in windmills for electric power. To say nothing of relying on agricultural crops for vehicle fuels!