Solar Geomagnetic Ap Index Hits Zero

This is something you really don’t expect to see this far into solar cycle 24.

But there it is, the Solar Dynamics Observatory satellite shows the sun as a cueball:

The Ap index being zero, indicates that the sun’s magnetic field is low, and its magneto is idling rather than revving up as it should be on the way to solar max. True, it’s just a couple of data points, but as NOAA’s SWPC predicts the solar cycle, we should be further along instead of having a wide  gap:

The Ap index generally follows along with the sunspot count, which is a proxy of solar activity.

And here’s the daily Ap geomagnetic data. The Ap is bumping along the bottom:

Graph by Jan Alvestad

 

The long term Ap has been on a downtrend, ever since there was a step change in October 2005:

The overall data looks pretty anemic:

This page is normally updated once a day by Jan Alvestad. All values are preliminary.

[Solar Terrestrial Activity Report]

h/t to Joe D’Aleo and thanks to Jan Alvestad for keeping this data and plotting it.

Solar and geomagnetic data (last month)

Date Measured

solar flux

Sunspot number Planetary A index K indices (3-hour intervals) Min-max solar wind speed (km/sec) Number of flares (events)
STAR NOAA STAR NOAA Daily low – high Planetary Boulder C M X
20101222 77.7 12 0 0.0 0 0-0 00000000 00001100 287-381
20101221 77.9 12 0 1.3 1 0-3 01001000 11101100 347-457
20101220 77.9 12 0 8.5 8 3-18 13222223 13222223 346-479
20101219 80.9 11 0 1.4 1 0-6 10000002 11000112 345-415
20101218 80.5 0 0 2.3 2 0-5 11001001 11101211 353-446
20101217 81.6 11 11 3.1 3 0-7 21001111 31001221 383-524
20101216 84.1 11 23 4.6 5 0-9 21210111 21220221 433-567
20101215 86.9 22 11 8.9 9 3-27 34111111 44222211 544-655 1
20101214 90.3 34 33 11.1 11 5-18 12233323 13233323 491-757 1
20101213 87.7 49 46 5.4 5 2-9 22200022 32211212 385-611
20101212 89.4 52 23 3.8 4 0-15 00001312 00001422 293-445
20101211 86.9 23 25 0.9 1 0-3 00000001 01001001 284-354
20101210 88.4 40 33 0.3 0 0-2 00000000 00000110 321-349
20101209 86.8 54 22 1.8 2 0-3 11000001 11200110 341-404
20101208 87.2 48 22 2.8 3 0-7 11001021 12111222 337-445
20101207 87.1 31 34 3.9 4 2-7 10102111 01112211 342-385
20101206 88.5 28 35 2.4 2 0-4 00011111 01121121 269-351
20101205 87.9 42 47 0.8 1 0-4 00000001 00011101 270-274
20101204 87.4 52 48 0.6 1 0-3 00100000 00101010 270-314
20101203 86.8 47 27 1.1 1 0-5 01000000 02000000 270-337
20101202 86.5 38 32 2.6 3 0-6 21001000 11000110 339-360
20101201 86.5 44 25 1.8 2 0-4 10000011 10100210 338-358 1
20101130 86.4 36 24 3.0 3 2-4 01011110 12021110 345-402
20101129 82.5 24 31 3.1 3 0-5 00111110 01221111 348-437
20101128 80.1 34 34 6.1 6 0-12 22101231 23212221 384-460
20101127 76.5 38 11 11.9 12 0-67 00001164 00001243 294-520
20101126 76.2 12 23 1.6 2 0-4 00001111 00001110 344-390
20101125 77.9 25 22 3.6 4 2-6 12111110 02112110 382-477
20101124 75.8 23 11 4.4 4 3-6 11111122 11221221 426-518
20101123 75.3 12 12 7.8 8 3-15 21311332 21312321 452-537

This page is normally updated once a day by Jan Alvestad. All values are preliminary.

[Solar Terrestrial Activity Report]

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DoctorJJ
December 23, 2010 10:10 am

Is anyone besides me worrying about the real consequences of a severe, long term minimum? I want to cheer as the aun goes quiet and the globe cools, but a good part of me is quite apprehensive as to what this could mean to mankind.

Bruckner8
December 23, 2010 10:11 am

No no! It’s not zero! We just can’t measure it with our current instruments! Wait, wait, here’s a better device, ok, now we can go back and re-measure, re-calibrate, recount and restate all of the numbers again, as far back as we want! I mean, had we had this device back in 2010, surely we would’ve counted it…
/sarcasm
Science is a bitch, sometimes.

Dave Springer
December 23, 2010 10:25 am

Now here would be a great time to get some geo-engineering project proposals to break up blocking highs over Greenland. The cost of a hard winter in North America and Europe has got to be billions and billions. For greenies just think how much extra fossil fuel is being used to keep a billion people in heated dwellings.
Of course Greenlanders might have some objections. Their heating bills are substantially reduced and who knows – if it keeps up they can keep cattle like the Vikings once did. Maybe even grow apples too.
In the meantime people who aren’t old enough to remember what the winters were like 40 or more years ago are getting their first taste. Hey look, Mikey doesn’t like it!

MattN
December 23, 2010 10:30 am

Max amplitude 50-60. Carbon copy of the Dalton. Interesting times, indeed…..

peterhodges
December 23, 2010 10:34 am

i guess more cosmic rays must be getting in!

Richard
December 23, 2010 10:43 am

@DoctorJJ “Is anyone besides me worrying about the real consequences of a severe, long term minimum? I want to cheer as the aun goes quiet and the globe cools, but a good part of me is quite apprehensive as to what this could mean to mankind.”
You SHOULD not be. You SHOULD be worried about Global Warming, not a bit of cooling. Think of the havoc Global Warming WOULD have caused throughout Europe and Brittan, had they got the expected and forecast warm winter, and not the few inches of snow and slightly cooler temperatures that they are having.
Whose afraid of the big bad snow and ice?

December 23, 2010 10:48 am

Al Gore explained it to me best. He said that man’s use of fossil fuels is causing the sun’s spin to go out of whack, which makes… I can’t remember it all, but the important thing is that we need to stop using oil. He sounded pretty confident about it.

Chris Reeve
December 23, 2010 10:49 am

Wal Thornhill writes:
“Sunspots are dark instead of bright, which is prima facie evidence that heat is not trying to escape from within. And the Sun’s corona is millions of degrees hotter than the photosphere. These simple observations point to the energy source of the Sun being external. Add to this the dominant influence of magnetic fields on the Sun’s external behavior and we arrive at the necessity for an electrical energy supply. It is the “subtle radiation traversing space which the star picks up,” and which Eddington immediately dismissed because his gravitational model required energy to be generated at the core of the star to bloat it to the observed size.”
Eugene Parker writes:
“[T]he pedestrian Sun exhibits a variety of phenomena that defy contemporary theoretical understanding. We need look no farther than the sunspot, or the intensely filamentary structure of the photospheric magnetic field, or the spicules, or the origin of the small magnetic bipoles that continually emerge in the supergranules, or the heat source that maintains the expanding gas in the coronal hole, or the effective magnetic diffusion that is so essential for understanding the solar dynamo, or the peculiar internal rotation inferred from helioseismology, or the variation of solar brightness with the level of solar activity, to name a few of the more obvious mysterious macrophysical phenomena exhibited by the Sun.”
More from Wal Thornhill …
“Countless billions of dollars have been wasted based on the thermonuclear model of stars. For example, trying to generate electricity from thermonuclear fusion, “just like the Sun.” The thought that solar scientists have it completely backwards has not troubled anyone’s imagination. The little fusion power that has been generated on Earth has required phenomenal electric power input, “just like the Sun!” The Sun and all stars consume electrical energy to produce their heat and light and cause some thermonuclear fusion in their atmospheres. The heavy elements formed there are seen in stellar spectra. It explains why the expected solar neutrino count is low and anti-correlated with sunspot numbers. It explains why many stars are considered “chemically peculiar.” Get the physics right first and the mathematics will follow.”
(These quotes come from “Our Misunderstood Sun” at http://www.holoscience.com/news.php?article=ah63dzac, and are intended to remind people that putting sugar sprinkles onto a turd does not make it taste or smell any better. We need to be looking at errors in the foundational assumptions that go into these models.)
REPLY: “And the Sun’s corona is millions of degrees hotter than the photosphere. These simple observations point to the energy source of the Sun being external. ”
Really? What rubbish. – Anthony

Robinson
December 23, 2010 10:52 am

Is anyone besides me worrying about the real consequences of a severe, long term minimum?

Not yet. CO2 is still increasing, so we should be ok :p.

Dave Springer
December 23, 2010 10:52 am

I don’t suppose this will do anything to stop the flood of legal immigrants from New York to Texas. A little 2010 census humor there.
What’s behind the rise of Texas?
[link was missing target URL, so I edited out the HTML that was broken. -MOD-e]

By Ruben Navarrette Jr., Special to CNN
[snippage – go to link for full article]
It makes for quite a sea change. We are seeing the transfer of influence and prominence away from what has long been considered the power corridor of Boston, Washington and New York and toward the Sunbelt.
Texas is the buckle in that belt. If you want to catch a glimpse of the future, you don’t go to Alexandria or Syracuse or Worcester. You go to Austin, Houston or San Antonio.
A generation or two ago, Americans left the Northeast and headed west to California in search of the Pacific, milder climate, bountiful farmland and a spirit of tolerance. Now, they’re still leaving the Northeast — but also leaving California — to head to Texas in pursuit of lower taxes, less government regulation, lower home prices and a spirit of independence.

December 23, 2010 10:53 am

You know this Solar Cycle reminds me of that Monty Python Dead Parrot Routine.
So is old Sol pining for the fjords?

Luis Dias
December 23, 2010 10:55 am

The graph is too noisy to take any kind of “aha” moment… it’s still very possible for the graph to catch up to the prediction. Check the spikes.

Dave Springer
December 23, 2010 11:04 am

DoctorJJ says:
December 23, 2010 at 10:10 am
“Is anyone besides me worrying about the real consequences of a severe, long term minimum? I want to cheer as the aun goes quiet and the globe cools, but a good part of me is quite apprehensive as to what this could mean to mankind.”
The effect I think would be best described as sobering. Humbling might fit well too.
This is mother nature giving us a bitch slap. At least it isn’t a supervolcano, large asteroid strike, or record setting coronal mass ejection. There’s far worse that can happen. At least we can probably predict an asteroid strike and do something to prevent it. And we could prepare for a big CME. Supervolcano – we’re probably screwed, glued, and tatooed there.
The very least of my worries is global warming. World War III ranks above global warming. Hell I’m cheering for global warming! Call me weird but I prefer plants and animals to barren ice and rock.

Dave Springer
December 23, 2010 11:06 am

re; missing link to CNN article
Darn. I hate when that happens.
http://www.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/12/23/navarrette.texas.growth/

Madman2001
December 23, 2010 11:14 am

Leif, any insights? Is this just a temporary flagging? I would have to guess it is, but it is nonetheless worrisome.
It reminds me a bit of an old car I used to have that would have a problem starting up in cold weather. There was always that worrisome moment of “will she?”/”won’t she” as I listened to the motor turn over, trying to catch. I feel much the same here with Old Sol. I hope she starts up again.

Chris Reeve
December 23, 2010 11:14 am

Re: “REPLY: “And the Sun’s corona is millions of degrees hotter than the photosphere. These simple observations point to the energy source of the Sun being external. ”
Really? What rubbish. – Anthony”
Anthony, you’re making a critical error here.

Archonix
December 23, 2010 11:15 am

REPLY: “And the Sun’s corona is millions of degrees hotter than the photosphere. These simple observations point to the energy source of the Sun being external. ”
Really? What rubbish. – Anthony

Perhaps it would be better to say that they point to the distinct possibility that the current model of the sun’s function is incorrect.

Gerry
December 23, 2010 11:17 am

How many denials are we going to hear from the AGW crowd when the price of firewood and heating oil skyrockets during the next mini-Ice Age??? Oh, that’s right… it’s all just ‘climate change’ and ‘local weather’.

Dave Springer
December 23, 2010 11:18 am

@anthony
Do you think we’re in for an increase in La Ninas due to the solar slumber?
They cause droughts here in Texas. Bad ones. This one is no exception. California gets the floods instead. I’d rather have floods than droughts.

Nigel Brereton
December 23, 2010 11:23 am

We in the UK have just had a trial run. Won’t be so bad as long as we don’t expect to go anywhere or do anything.
Hopefully nature will give us another couple of winters trial preparation to adjust to the changes.
Anyone for skiing on the Kent coast?
I’m thinking ski-doo trecks along the Thames, past the Houses of Parliament.

Baa Humbug
December 23, 2010 11:26 am

I tell ya, I’m really starting to believe there is such a thing as universal karma.

R. Shearer
December 23, 2010 11:28 am

Is the curve of Predicted Values the original, adjusted, adjusted adjusted prediction?

December 23, 2010 11:29 am

For comparing of solar cycles 1…24 I made a small diagram http://www.dh7fb.de/ssnano/image003.gif in this way:
I took the monthly ssn-data from here http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/greenwch/spot_num.txt and the data of the beginning of the solar cycles and constructed an “average solar cycle”. After this I calculated the monthly anomaly of solar-cycles 1…24 and the “accumulated SSN Anomaly” (ASSNA) since the beginning of all the cycles after 23 month ( December 2008…November 2010) are the data for the diagram. I’ll update the figure every month. Maybe it’s interesting to see the development of SC24 in relation to the cycles b4 .
best wishes and merry Xmess DH7FB

John Day
December 23, 2010 11:33 am

@teh article
> The Ap index being zero, indicates that the sun’s magnetic field is low.
Actually, the Ap index (and its logarithmic cousin Kp) are strictly measures of fluctuations in the Earth’s magnetic field, not the solar magnetic field. It is a measure of tiny changes in the Earth’s magnetic field, caused by interaction with Earth’s ionosphere and plasmasphere, and indirectly with the Sun through interaction with the solar wind, a magnetized stream of electrons and protons.
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/geomag/kp_ap.html
These magnetic perturbations of the Earth’s magnetic field (~ 50,000 nano-teslas [nt]) are on the order of a few nt. A magnetic storm is a period of high fluctuation, as much as 500nt, caused by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and such.
Think of geomagnetic storms as magnetic “quakes”, analogous to earthquakes, except the magnetic field is trembling, not the ground.
So the title of this article “Solar Geomagnetic Ap Index Hits Zero” is a misnomer and should read “Terrestrial Geomagnetic Ap Index Hits Zero”, and even that is a bit redundant, geomagnetic says it all

Chris Thorne
December 23, 2010 11:35 am

The really frightening thought is this:
If this low internal solar activity really is a valid correlate with a cooling Sun delivering less energy to the Earth, and if it lasts for some time, and if we really are facing a rapid global cold snap analogous to a Maunder or Dalton minimum, there is no course of action that would be LESS well suited to that than the current model of investing heavily in windmills for electric power. To say nothing of relying on agricultural crops for vehicle fuels!

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