Joe Bastardi paid a visit today in Sea Ice News #30 and left a comment with a forecast.
Joe Bastardi says:
Keep in mind that while I forecasted a warm summer in the arctic, the forecast I make
is for NORTH of the arctic Circle. I was not forecasting for exclusively the area north of 80 north.
I think we will find that it was a warm summer overall north of the circle, but we had a nice [ice] cube in the middle!
In addition the sea ice forecast I made was for a min between 2008 and 2009, after a rapid spring melt, a leveling off, which is close to where it wound up. Remember I have been debating publicly and visibly the death spiral people on this matter.
My forecast for next year is for sea ice to melt only to levels we saw back in 2005, or 06. If I had to put a number on it, I think it would be around 5.5 at its lowest.
The ice is coming back, will do so in forward and back steps, with forward defeating the back steps. I am on record as saying we will be back to 1977 levels by 2030. The real problem would be is if there is no corresponding drop in the southern hemisphere sea ice. Like the 70s, cries of ice age will start again. So my forecast for next years melt is for 5.5.
Book it now Anthony.. cheers and Happy Thanksgiving JB
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“Nice is cube”?
REPLY: He meant ice, fixed thanks -A
I have a feeling we can take his prediction to the bank
Mr. B.
Thanks for the bottom line.
Paul
“The real problem would be is if there is no corresponding drop in the southern hemisphere sea ice. Like the 70s, cries of ice age will start again. So my forecast for next years melt is for 5.5.”
God forbid we fall for cries of an ice age again, although I wouldn’t be surprised. You don’t know an ice age has occurred until you are 100 years into it. Just like you don’t know an economic bubble has occurred until it has popped. Well, not an exact analogy.
People and nations should look forward to adaptation to changing conditions of the colder variety and adapt however. If the solar minimum doesn’t abate soon, much colder conditions should be anticipated.
Let’s hope that Antarctica’s ice edge, which in several places extends beyond the “average” line, stays away from the South American horn. With our cold Pacific, we don’t need the Circumpolar Antarctic current to invade the Atlantic to a greater degree than it already does.
Read this this morning. Put it down as made in November and let us see who comes closest, but only enter the predictions made before April 1st/
Terry
What no death spiral? Quick call Mark the prophet of doom for an enforced re-education. Maybe a trip to Cancun on the governments expense.
I think Joe is more or less right on and I suspect the Antarctic will not shrink much if any and it to may grow. This of course comes at a time when I am working on a couple of resource development studies in the mid arctic region.
Put me down for less than 4.0 for a new record low.
Darn! Melt the ice caps! Tropics from pole to pole!
Much more pleasant.
Please indulge me on the eve of a revolution.
If you feel you are being inconvenienced by the national op-out day, just think about how inconvenienced the people who fought the American Revolutionary War for you felt.
Deja vu?
2010 Redux?
My guess, at this time, is 5,499,999 km^2, if it goes below 5.5E6, I’ve bested Joe B.
Brian H says:
November 23, 2010 at 8:20 pm
Darn! Melt the ice caps! Tropics from pole to pole!
Much more pleasant.
——————–
Oh man, I hear ya. I’m in Eastern Canada and while we had a very mild winter last year and so far this year, the Jet Stream is now well south and temperatures have dropped suddenly and we now have snow on the ground. The West is getting it bad. I’d go for some tropical weather right about now.
My favourite sentence is this:
“The ice is coming back, will do so in forward and back steps, with forward defeating the back steps.”
It’s so refreshing to see that instead of hearing how the current year is the X’th lowest year on record completely disregarding any possible recovery. And the South Pole is a good thing to mention as well. Should not the South Pole be going in backward steps too? The fact that it isn’t leads to some strange discrepancy.
Arctic Sea Ice Area Anomaly appears to have entered a unusually uniform annual cycle during the last three years, i.e. a shrinking anomaly from Oct – March and a growing anomaly from April – September:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png
I will be interested to see if the Arctic Sea Ice Area Anomaly continues to shrink until around March 2011, and where it peaks…
The Russian have been saying we are heading into an ice age for quite some time… we know some will blame CO2 for it though!!!
Cool spell hitting California the next couple of nights.
Lancaster is expecting a low of high teens to low 20’s, and Paso Robles (wine country) is expecting low 20’s for Wed & Thurs nights.
When Joe speaks of a warm or cool Arctic summer, is he referring to temps? If so, what data is he using to verify? I sure hope it isn’t GISS.
I say we put up a chart of predictions.
invite steve goddard to predict, walt meiers, tamino,
Agree Steven Mosher.
I’m going for 4.75 extent as per JAXA measurement.
I think Joe said Alaska and Russia would have another cold winter, so that will be interesting to watch to see if it comes out right.
Andy
I love this guy. He is a Weatherman. lol. Fearless. Makes money on being right, not on being an alarmist.
Anthony, you got your first prediction. Bank it.
The Republic of The United States of America!
I guess that would make us RUSA.
If the chant ever became popular, R-U-S-A, R-U-S-A, that would make Aaron Russo really really proud.
“The real problem would be is if there is no corresponding drop in the southern hemisphere sea ice. ”
Yes, that most certainly would be a problem. A rather big problem.
Mankind has been griping about the weather since the dawn of time.
Only recently have some begun to panic over the weather.
There will be genuine cause for concern should the Antarctic Circulation get diverted or impeded.
I expect a rise too, slightly above 2009 levels. The little solar activity, the PDO, the AMO… everything is ponting to a recovery. The drop in 2010 didn’t come unexpected, as we have not seen yet 3 years of continued rise, and it had risen the 2 years before. However, if it doesn’t rise next year, that will be quite a surprise for me. As much a surprise as to make me rethink about this whole issue and wonder whether the arctic ice is really in a “death spiral”, no matter how slow, fast, beneficial or inconvenient.