Snow will come to California’s Sierra Nevada a bit earlier than usual.
Ryan Maue adds: “as this storm pulls eastward, it will “bomb” out or explosively deepen over the Great Plains and move into the upper-Midwest. The barometric pressure will fall to 962 mb 955 mb according to the most recent GFS forecast, making it one of the deepest northern United States continental extratropical cyclones since 1979 for the 30-day period between October 15 and November 14. This will clearly be a historical storm and an extreme event: evidence of global warming La Nina.”
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
407 PM PDT SAT OCT 23 2010
…POWERFUL PACIFIC STORM TO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AND LASSEN PARK…
.A POWERFUL PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN…SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS TO THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND LASSEN PARK AREAS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY…TAPERING OFF LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT.
CAZ068-241245-
/O.NEW.KSTO.WS.W.0014.101023T2307Z-101025T0600Z/
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-
407 PM PDT SAT OCT 23 2010
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY ABOVE
7500 FEET…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR HEAVY SNOW…AND BLOWING SNOW
WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR WESTERN PLUMAS
COUNTY.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 6 INCHES TO A FOOT ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 7500
FEET IN WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY…WITH SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW
OCCURRING ON TOP OF MOUNT LASSEN.
* ELEVATION: ABOVE 7500 FEET.
* TIMING: SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AND WILL BE HEAVY
AT TIMES.
* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: LASSEN NATIONAL PARK.
* WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH.
* IMPACTS: PERIODS OF SNOW AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS CAUSING
BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES ABOVE 7500 FEET.
ALTHOUGH THE WINTER CAMPGROUND MAY EXPERIENCE RAIN…SNOW WILL
OCCUR ON THE ROAD TO MOUNT LASSEN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.
&&
$$
CAZ069-241245-
/O.NEW.KSTO.WS.W.0014.101024T0600Z-101025T0600Z/
WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
407 PM PDT SAT OCT 23 2010
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 PM PDT SUNDAY ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR THE WEST SLOPE NORTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR THE WEST SLOPE OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ABOVE 7500 FEET.
* ELEVATION: ABOVE 7500 FEET.
* TIMING: RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA
INCLUDING SONORA PASS ON HIGHWAY 108…EBBETS PASS ON HIGHWAY
4…CARSON PASS ON HIGHWAY 88…AND ECHO SUMMIT ON HIGHWAY 50.
* WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH.
* IMPACTS: HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
POOR VISIBILITY…AND POSSIBLE ROAD CLOSURES OR DANGEROUS
TRAVELING CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS
ACTIONS…
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL…KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT…
FOOD…AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
&&
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Awww.. this can’t be good. During the last several years here in Southern New England I ‘ve been able to postpone turning on the furnace until early November…. had to fire it up this week… but that’s not climate, just weather, right? RIGHT?
You can only talk about weather when its a warm issue. Early snowfall means nothing. Just natural variences we are told. Actually I feel it’s really a sign of things to come this winter and winters to come.
RyanMaue: early snowfall over Siberia is very important for winter climate. It was a critical component to the record negative Arctic Oscillation last year and the brutal Northern Hemisphere winter.
Ah, more CO2 than last year, will result in more snow.
I blame all that CO2 myself.
must be really heating up..yep..thats global warming for you .
( sic )
Ian
Well,
Here in Colorado we’ve been enjoying an extended summer. Of course its all due to AGW – but next week we’re supposted to get that storm hitting the coast now. But, I agree, that’ s just weather….\sarc off\
Mike
We’re sitting here on the Sonoma Coast and we’ve already gotten about 2 inches of the 0.3 inches predicted for the day….
A case can be made pretty easily that the downstream effects of Super Typhoon Megi from the last week explosively invigorated the midlatitude jet stream. An atmospheric river of high-specific humidity air flows eastward across the Pacific aka the pineapple express. This is only the beginning of a brutal NH winter. My secret plots that keep track of forecast hemispheric/global temperatures show that the lingering El Nino temperature anomalies are long gone, and both hemispheres are now below the 30-year normal/climo averages.
Early snow from global warming, right.
I am in the region of NW Calif. on the track to Lassen Park vis Redding, CA.
Been showering since yesterday, getting heavier.
It all starts on the Pacific NW coast. Look out the rest of you.
La Nina begins its rally, like a late-inning come from behind ball game.
This could be a wicked winter in the US from La Nina.
If the GFS is a “perfect prog” it would be an “Edmund Fitzgerald”-type storm.
Behold the power of the Al Gore effect!
‘Winter’ type low pressure cells have been hitting the Pac. NW since this summer.
The local meteorologist had made note of them as highly unusual.
Now, they are packing.
And so it begins.
*****
Jimmy Haigh says:
October 23, 2010 at 6:00 pm
I blame all that CO2 myself.
*****
I blame all that CO2 ON myself! Well … me and Al Gore. Ahhh … me, Al Gore, and Nancy Pelosi. Wait! Me, Al Gore, Nancy Pelosi, the President and his entourage, the First Lady and HER entourage, and every actor in California. Yeah, that’s it!
It seems the NH and SH. Interesting times!
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
Nothing like a big storm to awaken the, sometimes dulled, senses.
A rather early snowfall is forecasted for Tuesday/Wednesday in Sapporo, the capital of Hokkaido, Japan, due to cold air coming down from Siberia.
Devils HATE warming…..this should make us think about….. Was Al Baby, a failure also as a “666”? 🙂
Ryan Maue says:
October 23, 2010 at 6:14 pm
What are you using for temperatures to create those maps?
Ryan: NCEP GFS deterministic forecast, 2-meter temperatures. Climatology is based upon the NCEP CFSR reanalysis, recently released which uses essentially the same numerical model as the GFS. As close to an apples-to-apples comparison as you can get with gridded historical and forecast data. The climo is based upon the mean temps for a 21-day centered period on the date in question, averaged over 31-years: 21×31 = 651.
The low (now 969 mb) is off the coast of WA State and headed NE.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?fronts-ir
There is rain on the west side of the mountains and snow is expected by Sunday evening in the Cascades. We think of Halloween as the date to see snow on the eastward extensions of the mountains – between Ellensburg and Wenatchee. So it seems to be a week early this year – if it happens. Oregon seems to be impacted more than WA.
The PDF, here
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
shows the PNW to be wetter than usual in a La Niña winter but with rather average temperature. That is a scenario for snow in the Cascades as the air masses move of the Pacific Ocean. When the wind is more out of the north the PNW is colder but without extra snow. Let’s check back in March to see how this works out.
Just for reference, this link should point to the latest MM5 North Pacific Animated Forecast Loop for surface temperatures, winds, and isobar curves for the next 72 hours in 3-hour increments. Currently, (12 UTC Sat 23 Oct 10) it seems to be predicting that a new blob of cold air will come out over the arc of the Aleutian Islands.
MM5 North Pacific Animated Forecast Loop
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d1_slp+///3
Lassen is a great Park. owned a place nearby once
ahhh, something wicked this way comes…
Ryan Maue says:
October 23, 2010 at 6:14 pm
“This is only the beginning of a brutal NH winter. My secret plots that keep track of forecast hemispheric/global temperatures show that the lingering El Nino temperature anomalies are long gone, and both hemispheres are now below the 30-year normal/climo averages.”
I just ordered two tons of pellets for my pellet stove. Just in time, I think. (I live in New Hampshire – it’s rare, but not out of the question, to see snow on Halloween).