Guest post by Thomas Fuller
Before I start, I’d like to remind readers that as a guest poster, the opinions I voice here are not those of Anthony Watts, and should not be taken as having been endorsed by Watts Up With That.
I am going to propose an idea based on my position as a Lukewarmer regarding climate change. I fully expect to get a lot of criticism from commenters here, and I welcome it. My idea is new (at least to me), and if it is a good idea it will be sharpened by your criticism–and of course, if it is rubbish, best to know quickly, right?
I think the debate on climate change needs some new ideas and criticism too. So blast away–but please bring your A game. I neither need nor want to see the equivalent of ‘you suck, dude.’
Families, businesses and yes, even governments, need to make plans for the future. Those plans used to include assumptions about the physical environment, although most of those assumptions were passive acceptance of the status quo. However, it is now difficult to make assumptions because various theories of climate change and its effects have people wondering if their homes will be threatened by sea level rise, drought, hurricanes or floods.
Because of the competing number of possible futures (the IPCC has many scenarios and many more have been pulled from the science fiction rack and offered up to us), people are somewhat paralyzed by too many choices. I think it is time to recognize that all of use engaged in the debate about climate change are not doing the rest of the world any favors. We are making their life more difficult because they cannot make plans with any confidence.
If there is one dataset that I trust regarding the Earth’s climate, it is the measurement of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. It has been freely available for examination, it is replicated by measurements in more than one site, and in my mind survived criticism from people such as the late Ernst Beck. I trust the numbers.
The numbers show that concentrations of CO2 were 315 ppm in 1958, when Mauna Loa started measuring. Concentrations now are 390 ppm. That is a rise of 19%. The central question in climate change is, ‘What is the sensitivity of the earth’s atmosphere to a doubling of the concentrations of CO2?’ Is the atmosphere easily influenced by CO2, producing more water vapor and adding to temperature rise, or is the atmosphere largely indifferent? Despite protestations from both sides, the honest answer is we don’t know now, and we are not likely to know for another 30 years.
Temperatures appear to have risen globally, although the accuracy of the data is not yet fully determined. The rise since 1958 appears to be about 0.5 degrees Celsius.
If these were the only statistics available to us, we would quickly conclude that the sensitivity of the earth’s atmosphere to all human-related activities might well be 2.5 degrees Celsius. This would lead to the supposition that, if concentrations of CO2 rise to about 600 ppm, which certainly seems possible, that the Earth’s temperature will rise about another 2 degrees C. Since it’s based on measurement of temperatures, it can be presumed to include all the effects we are having on temperatures, not just CO2.
And I am arguing, no–proposing, that we do exactly that. Attempts to refine models and measurements have been unsuccessful and have served to heighten suspicion and muddy the debate. I have seen very credible arguments for sensitivities that are both higher and lower, but these arguments are based on data or models that have much higher levels of uncertainty associated with them, ranging from differing ways of measuring tropospheric temperatures to analysis of varves from Finnish lakes.
I don’t see undisputed data that will allow us to do better than the 40 years of good data we have now. So I think we should provide a ‘rough and ready’ estimate of 2 degrees C climate change this century to the public, business and politicians, so they can start making plans for the future.
It should obviously come with an asterisk and error bars, and should be presented as ‘crude, but the best we can really do at this time.’ Much like earlier and simpler climate models have often done better in handling projections of future climate, our rougher and cruder metrics may serve us better for now.
We need to stop throwing sci-fi fantasies out as plausible outcomes. We need to provide a range of outcomes based on measurements that we trust.
We also need not to be distracted by elements of the debate that have only served a political purpose. Current temperatures are not unprecedented. There was a MWP and a LIA. Sea level is rising at 3 mm per year. The ice caps are not going to disappear this millenium.
None of that really matters. Temperatures are rising, and more quickly than they have often in the past. (Yes, they have risen this quickly on occasion.) It is the speed of change and the numbers of people those changes will affect that are actually of more concern than the total temperature rise. The people in developing countries are actually more vulnerable than the last time there was a big quick rise–hunter gatherers didn’t have homes and could just move out of harm’s way, and they were few enough in number that they would not have been labeled ‘climate refugees.’
So, I call for all those involved in the climate debate to throw down their weapons, embrace this practical solution as being of use to the rest of the world, climb aboard the Peace Train and sing Kumbaya. Right.
No, have a look at this–tell me if it’s remotely possible that the skeptic community could sacrifice its current temporary, but very real advantage in the debate and agree that a rough metric that acknowledges warming but puts sane boundaries on it would be of use to the rest of the world.
Again, I’d like to thank readers who have made it this far for listening to a different side of the debate in a forum where you are more comfortable seeing the failings of your opponents exposed. If you find the gaping flaw in my logic, my idea can die quickly, if not quietly. If you see merit in my proposal, any indication of such would be warmly welcomed.
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“The rise since 1958 appears to be about 0.5 degrees Celsius.”
From 1910 to 1940 temperature rose by about .5C.
There was a similar rise after the end of LIA.
Please explain why 1 out of the 3 was caused by CO2, 2 out of the 3 were caused by ReasonX and not CO2, and why you believe the 1 you think was caused by CO2 was not caused by ReasonX.
Please offer proof.
Since [CO2] historically (climatically speaking) follows temperature change and not the other way round, perhaps the question is whether we should be looking at other sources of delta T? (More causative rather than passive in nature.)
The charging elephant is undisturbed by your ability to shoot the fly from his shoulder.
The speech by Vaclav Havel in the post directly preceding this one could almost be a direct riposte.
“Many of us came to the conclusion that the case for the currently promoted anthropogenic global warming hypothesis is very weak. We also know that it is always wrong to pick a simple, attractive, perhaps appealing scientific hypothesis, especially when it is not sufficiently tested and non-contentiously pushed forward, and to base ambitious, radical and far-reaching policies on it – without paying attention to all the arguments and to all the direct and indirect as well as opportunity costs associated with it. “
Not much to say from me, apart from thankyou for your ideas, presented in an ‘approachable’ style. I’d like to think that (unlike the censorious Joe Romm and his cronies), WUWT has always welcomed rational and reasoned debate.
Whilst I don’t agree with your point of view, I still look forward to the comments people will make about your post and the debate it will generate.
Tom, I consider myself a lukewarmer too, but I can’t go with this idea. What happened 1958-1977? (answer: C02 went up and temperature went down) What happened 1880-1940? (answer: temperature rose quickly and it is agreed C02 could not played a significant part)
I do believe C02 is contributing to warming, but as to how much? I don’t know. I do know I would not be comfortable assuming it is more than 1/3 based on the data we have now. Not saying it couldn’t be more (and, indeed, maybe even more than 100% if you assume the cooling of the 60s/70s might have continued without it!), but I’m not comfortable assuming it based on current data.
And that means that costly efforts to limit C02 could be aimed at the wrong problem, and all that money you could have used on either the right problem, or helping people adjust to climate change, is now gone. “Opportunity Cost” is a big issue here on getting it right what we need to be addressing.
What if temps go down to 1970’s level in 10 years or so as some believe, doing so without the decrease of carbon emissions that the current theory of AGW would have us believe? What then? Will the pro-AGW climate scientists give their mea culpa and say they were wrong, or will they try to come up with excuses and theories as to why their pronouncements were waaaaay off? Funny feeling it will be the later.
I can stretch to agree that we disagree.
You write:
“Temperatures are rising, and more quickly than they have often in the past. (Yes, they have risen this quickly on occasion.) It is the speed of change and the numbers of people those changes will affect that are actually of more concern than the total temperature rise. The people in developing countries are actually more vulnerable than the last time there was a big quick rise–hunter gatherers didn’t have homes and could just move out of harm’s way, and they were few enough in number that they would not have been labeled ‘climate refugees.’”
My view:
“Temperatures are changing , as they have often in the past. The speed of change are smaller than change of season and will not have any affect that are actually of concern. Especially not the total temperature rise. The people in developing countries are actually less vulnerable than the last time there was a big quick rise, just because they are developing countries. Hunter gatherers didn’t have this knowledge and could not just move in right direction, in right time’”
That make a difference.
Tom,
In principal, yes. I would be willing to see us discuss a 2.5o policy. This means I would like to see what costs should be imposed, whether for mitigation or adaptation.
As to the great debate, I would like some closure on it, but realize it is unlikely to simply see AGW promoters busted like the murderer in an Agatha Christie mystery.
But we should get, for an end to the great hot air debate, a full and thorough audit of of the promoters who received so much public largesse.
The flaw is that you assume that the rates we are seeing will continue for the next 90 years, as if CO2 controls the climate – CO2 thermostat control. This has not been proven, so even if the concentration of atmospheric CO2 continues to increase at the same rate, we do not know what effect that will have on the climate. There are many good reason to believe that temps are going to begin to go down based on non-CO2 influences, and have been flat for 10 years. If temps go down while CO2 continues to go up, the whole theory is falsified and we should not be planning for a 2 degree rise, but instead reevaluating the role of science in policy making. Besides does anyone really think the warmist will give up “sci-fi scenarios”. If the skeptics gave into a 2 degree rise, the warmist will say see they are right and here is what will happen if you don’t give into global governance over your life………….pick your doomsday scenario.
Cain’t go fer it, Bubba (at least I didn’t say, “you suck.”) 🙂
In 1958 we were in a Negative PDO, and AMO. We got the run-up when we transitioned to a Positive PDO, AND AMO.
Now, we’re moving back into a Negative PDO, but with a Positive AMO.
There just isn’t nearly enough information to go making serious changes to the World’s economy. Let’s take another look in, say, 2030. Maybe we’ll know a little bit more, then. (It would be hard to know “less.”)
One problem I have always had is the aversion to nuclear power as a solution. People truly concerned with CO2 should be pushing the hardest for nuclear power to replace all fossil fuel power plants.
Planning for the future will involve nuclear power. Get the warmists on board with nuclear instead of wasting time with the expensive and low energy “green” options.
We never talk about the winners…the vast areas of northern US, Canada, Europe and Asia whose agricultural prospects will improve or become possible with 2degC warming …. the expansion of the citrus belt, the modest reduction in “coping with winter” costs, the net energy savings
(less heating vs modestly more cooling, etc). The net costs may well be positive with warming in this range. How about “managing” rather than “coping”. Also a look at population maps 100 years ago suggest that any “climate refugee” movement will be dwarfed by the scope of the natural demographic changes that have occurred as lifestyles have changed.
When looking out a century its well to remember that the enlightened city planners of a century ago were wondering what cities would do with all the horses**t.
PJB has hit upon the central problem involved in coming up with any kind of rough agreement on actions to be taken – the idea that any actions at all are required depends upon whether or not CO2 is actually the cause, and not the effect.
But it is certainly possible that the heating has occurred for a completely different reason (ie, the Sun) and that CO2 levels have been the *effect* of the temperature rise, not the cause. If this is true, than any efforts to restrict CO2 are worse then useless, because they squander valuable resources on a wild goose chase.
You say it could be 30 years before we know for sure. So, come back and ask me in 30 years. Till then, observe only – there is, there can be no firm justification for any action under this level of uncertainty.
The inaccuracy of global temperature data has certainly been determined.
Kudos, this is your best post yet.
I disagree with a few things, but that being said, you came out swinging, and in a civil method came out with an outcall for discussion on something that is indeed relevant. When the scare mongering is over, what should we do? Obviously policy makers need to know IF this science can predict to some degree of accuracy and if it can, making plans never hurts.
Back on topic, I would caution that 2 degrees as a figure like you said is probably a little high compared to the warming that we have experienced since the end of the LIA. From the crude models I drew from the end of the LIA until now, it seems we have warmed a total of around 2.5 degrees (this figure is actually 2.4 in my own models.) As you said, the error bars should be included, but in not modeling the future I can also accuratly depict the error, and this is + or – .7 degrees. This is based on interpolation I had to use to complete the models to 1850 and of course the filling in of the data. Note, that UHI effects might increase or even decrease the error (I am not sure how it will effect things….)
The question here, is like you said, what is the actual sensitivity to a doubling of CO2. Natural effects seem to say that over 100 years (this is just me doing some simple math) that over 100 years we can expect to see about 1.6 degrees from natural variation if solar effects remain the same. (disclaimer since obviously this is something that I do think needs more study.)
Your 2 degrees I might have missed, but what is the time period? Because as I noted, natural variation since 1850 (I started here with some interpolation.. (yes this can be just as bad, but note that I do not extrapolate future trends either..)) is 1.6 C over a century, and if we double over 200 years, this means the CO2 + other human effects is less then natural variation. This assumes the climate is stagnant so to speak since the LIA (leaving out 60 year cycles…) and just the general warming since then.
This might seem like nit-picking, but a two degree difference is something to note with some issues since I showed that there is some natural variation to account for in there. It could be that natural variation is smaller and the effect on the model is mostly human activity and land usage change (including CO2 since 1850). It could be the opposite, but I would tend to think that at this stage in the game, our policy leaders need to know that we have no idea what effect we have on the climate. (This might be my opinion, but I find it hard to untangle natural variation from human effects from my work and what I have read) ———– This means I disagree with a message for policy leaders except for what we can expect from (“well done”) models.
As for policy leaders:
Investing in research and development: Good thing. Increasing the efficiency of energy devices is never a bad thing. Perhaps even in alternative energy that has not been invented yet. Pure science, that is something I love.
Investing in efficiency by itself: Might be good, might be bad. Look up Jevon’s paradox, this has hit us more then we want to admit with efficiency issues. Simply increasing efficiency does not mean we use less energy. This is why its called a “paradox”
Effects: These can not be predicted today. Dustbowl from the 1930’s shows that even though our temperatures from the 1990’s were similar, we have no idea why we didn’t suffer the same effects in the midwest. This is just one example of attempting to find a local solution, which I would hazard to guess is what we would call an impossible problem today.
Basically, just be ready for the worst mother nature can throw at us through good fire-fighting training; flash-flood training for first responders in arid regions; Education of what to do when disaster X approaches. Make sure any area that gets hit by hurricanes has good evacuation protocals and such. Other then that, mother nature will throw at us what she will. The best bang for our buck is preperation and training of both personal and civilions.
Mitigate our effect through intelligent money, keep our fire fighters and such funded, and educate the citizens on how to handle crisis. In addition, help other countries industrialize so they too can reach our level of industrialization and do their own work at that point when they have enough wealth to minimize their effect on the planet.
Not sure if that leaves me apart from some sceptics, but in the end I think that states my opinions the best. Keep up the good work, posts like this really make people think ( at least me…)
Unless there is a full showing of what raw data has been choosen to calculate global average temperatures, what adjustments (and their reasons) have been made, and what form of averaging the actual calculations have used, how can we have a scientific discussion on the subject. Has there in fact been a rise in global temperatures over the last 100 years? I would guess yes, and if I had to bet, that is probably where I would place my money — but do we have scientific evidence of a recent temperature rise? Not without open data and open methodology.
Facts first, then we can have an open discussion. Hiden data, hiden adjustments, hiden calculations, hiden software — no discussion.
Do your own research on the last 70 years. All city and town news outlets have been recording very accurate temperatures. Use ( http://www.wolframalpha.com ).Type in search box: Average Temp Marion Ohio click current week and click all. A chart from 1940 to 2010 shows a falling temp of -0.03 deg. F per year. The same is true for Kenton and Lima and a lot of other towns that did not put there thermometer on the cement in a parking lot, or on the roof like Columbus.(I guess that makes it man made.)Type in search box: Average Temp Wisconsin Rapids, Wisconsin click current week and click all. A chart from 1940 to 2010 shows a falling temp of -0.087 deg. F per year. I’m an old fart that remembers orange groves at the Florida, Georgia border. If we were in global warming all temperatures would be going up. This sample is every where, even England. Warming would be nice! I would love to have our orange groves back again! Some deeper water would not hurt anything either.
I think, Mr. Fuller, that you should read another post on these pages – the Vaclav Klaus speech. I think his views address the realities, both on the scientific issues and those of adaptation to normal climate variation, and are much more to the point than yours here. Also they are probably more congenial to the uncarbonated amongst us, me included. I certainly, at this point, don’t intend to ‘climb aboard the Peace Train and sing Kumbaya.’
I can except that the trend over the last about thirty years is likely to continue in the future. But does that imply any need for individuals and governments to “plan” to deal with this trend?
I think not. When one looks at the possibility of “risks” associated with the continuation of such a trend, one quickly finds there is little actual evidence of any substantial risks. The sea level changes that we already need to plan for due to subsidence are much more serious, and the challenges of most “natural disasters” are contingent upon some links to warming which, for the most part, appear to be completely non-existent.
But the best plan for the future is always to maximize productivity, growth, and become wealthy and healthy enough to be able to deal with whatever the future throws our way.
Hi all,
Thanks for comments so far. I just want to point out that I am proposing a 2 degree temperature rise this century from all causes, not just CO2.
Does that make a difference to how you perceive this?
Reasonable on the face of it and, as with other contributions by Mr Fuller, there is much that one can agree with. Many who contribute to this blog are concerned about environment, energy, population etc.
However, there is still no evidence of any kind that CO2 is the main driver of global temps and in the last decade (at least) there has been no temp rise despite a linearly increasing CO2. In addition none of the sequelae predicted by the IPPC have been realised.
Until there is a complete retraction of the AGW hypothesis by scientists and more importantly politicians, no progress will occur on far more important and real problems facing our world.
Possibly, maybe JeffId at the Air Vent has what could be a beginning of the end of GCMs
For 400,000 years (according to the Vostok ice cores) the temperature and CO2 has risen and fallen as we enter and leave long ice ages. Since there were no significant numbers of humans 100,000 years when this last occurred, what caused CO2 and temperature to go up?
The current rise in temperature is occurring right on schedule.
So why do think the causes from 100,000 years ago are not causing temperature and CO2 rises that are occuring now?
I do not think it is possible to say “there will be 2 degrees warming +/- 0.2”
One can say, “there will be 2 degrees warming +/-1.0” and cover all possibilities, but in that case one had as well ask the Ouija board.
Unless one studies in detail what is happening I do not think a skeptic who has looked into the physics will accept smaller errors.
So far models are unsuccessful in describing real temperatures . The data range from 13.5C ato 14.5C (assuming they are not doctored), and the models range from 12 to 16C and the majority have a discrepancy of at least 1C from the data.
What use is it to predict the anomalies when the absolute values are off? Energy is connected with the absolute values, not with anomalies, and any effects, deleterious or beneficial of raising the temperature by 2 degrees will depend on the absolute numbers .
If the models cannot predict absolute temperatures how can one trust they are getting the anomaly slope the same way that nature has? And if the details are not to be trusted how can one say if the effect of a rise in temperature will be bad or good? A graduated raising of the night temperatures, leaving the tropics fixed and giving higher temperatures at night for the high latitudes will be good for agriculture etc and will not have a gross effect on melting of ice etc. , for example.
It is a blind man’s buff, or bluff.
If the Vostok ice cores suggest that our interglacial will come to end end and plunge us into the next regularly scheduled ice age, should we not do everything possible to keep the planet warm and delay the next ice age?
I am reminded of the postulate…the nobleness of a cause is often far different than the motives of those pushing the cause. Not necessarily about your motives.
I am also reminded of Shakespeare…”Much ado about nothing”.
That said, I am no expert. I don’t claim to be an expert. I don’t even play one on TV. I am your average citizen trying to weed through the debate. From what I have read the perceived warming is less than the margin of error in calculating these measurements. Therefore, I am of the camp that we need a greater time period to make observations and to determine a trend if any.
That is my 39/1,000th of 1%… because that is all it’s worth.