Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes?

Guest post by Thomas Fuller
Regular readers will remember that the fuss generated by Michael Mann’s Hockey Stick chart caused an investigation. A U.S. Congressional committee, led by Congressman Joe Barton, asked Edward Wegman to investigate the methods and findings of Michael Mann. (See the Wegman report titled “AD HOC COMMITTEE REPORT ON THE ‘HOCKEY STICK’ GLOBAL CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION” here)
Now Wegman’s work is being investigated in much the same manner by people alleging that Wegman’s work contains plagiarized material.
The investigating institution, George Mason University, is responding to a formal complaint by Raymond Bradley, who was a co-author with Michael Mann of the work Wegman looked into.
One of the anonymous weblogs specializing in climate hysteria, Deep Climate, has been trumpeting charges about Wegman’s work for quite some time, alleging among other heinous crimes that some of the post grads working with Wegman had plagiarized work. Given the source, I had not paid much attention to it.
But if there is a formal complaint, we need to look at it seriously. Wegman’s criticism of Mann’s work is widely cited–his famous claim that ‘right answer, wrong method equals bad science’ is certainly and obviously correct–but it will have to apply to him, too.
I should also note that this is being handled better than Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli’s investigation of the University of Virginia’s grants for Michael Mann–basically because it’s being handled by the institution involved, as it should be.
I don’t like the weblog Deep Climate, and I very much respect the report Edward Wegman put out. I understand what the report said and I agree with its conclusions. So I’m hoping this investigation is thorough, quick and that Wegman’s work stands.
But there’s no way we can ignore this and complain about a lack of vigor in finding out what went wrong with CRU, Climategate and the Hockey Stick. This is bad news (for me). But it is news.
Michael Mann’s Hockey Stick will not be resurrected–there is enough criticism of it from his own colleagues in the leaked emails of Climategate to insure that. But Wegman’s report may sink under the weight of plagiarized material and while that would be a pity, that’s sometimes the way things work.
Let’s watch this and see, and report on the results in a clear-eyed fashion. Just because we have policy preferences and have opinions doesn’t mean we can ignore the facts.
Thomas Fuller http://www.redbubble.com/people/hfuller
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The end does not justify the means! These things cut both ways. Just like the 10-10 video, which some warmistas at least, have had the balls to recognize
Thanks, Mr. Fuller. I agree that this needs to be taken seriously, and the results should fall where they may.
Are there any allegations that any of the substance or results are in question, or is this purely a question of failing to cite sources? Is it Bradley’s work that is in question?
The graph to the left looks like a schematic. Are there no actual reconstructions that can be shown?
WHY are you showing that schematic diagram from the 1990 IPCC report that had limited data basis? It was a sketch to guide discussion based on general concepts, including anecdotal evidence (primarily European, for that matter).
If there is need to verify what I’m saying, here’s the entire IPCC WG 1 First Assessment: http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf (a 28 MB PDF, fair warning)
The figure is one panel of Figure 7.1, on page 202. Here is what is said about it:
“The period since the end of the last glaciation has been characterized by small changes in global average temperature with a range of probably less than 2°C (Figure
7 1), though it is still not clear whether all the fluctuations indicated were truly global.”
“The late tenth to early thirteenth centuries (about AD 950-1250) appear to have been exceptionally warm in western Europe, Iceland and Greenland (Alexandre 1987, Lamb, 1988). This period is known as the Medieval Climatic Optimum. China was,
however, cold at this time (mainly in winter) but South Japan was warm (Yoshino, 1978) This period of widespread warmth is notable in that there is no evidence
that it was accompanied by an increase of greenhouse gases.”
So that’s it. Three references to support the schematic (discussion of the Little Ice Age follows). It isn’t a very good basis for comparison, and seeing it might support some preconceptions that should be better supported than by one sketchy curve.
Oakden Wolf.
do you know the full story behind the graph? Did you read the mails. Its an interesting example of hiding corrections to save face
I agree with your underlying argument. However, allowing any given home university to investigate and be the ultimate adjudicator on alleged wrongdoings by its faculty is tantamount to giving the rabbits the responsibility to guard the lettuce.
The “fox guarding the chicken coop” analogy somehow seems more appropriate, although it fails in its ability to reflect universities’ politically correct aversion to blood on the walls. And that it unfortunately exactly what it required.
If Wegman et. al is tainted, let’s get to the bottom that ASAP and draw the appropriate conclusions. If that turns out not to be the case, those who made the allegations should be fed to the foxes in the most public manner possible.
Yeah, if Wegman did not properly attribute where the material came from, it could be bad for him. My question is how bad? If one of his grad students made the mistake, who pays the price, both Wegman and the grad student, just Wegman, or just the grad student.
Nobody is claiming the material is wrong, just that it has been copied without attribution, right?
With the graphs I can’t understand why Michael Mann’s more recent work (2008?) that seems to support the concept of a Medieval Warming Period is never quoted. Is it not big enough or is there another reason?
Having read DC’s and John Mashey’s assertions for quite some time, it is clear that they are on a witch-hunt. They have found a number of definitional descriptions which correspond closely to some text book definitions. What proportion do these inproperly attributed phrases comprise of the entire Wegman report? Vanishingly small. Does their exclusion in anyway damage the substance of the report? Not the least. Yet these two have decided that descending into a McCarthyist “outing” and attempting to destroy the career of someone who committed the “crime” of exposing the statistical errors of Michael Mann is their best avenue. I’m guessing they won’t be happy if the institution’s investigations are done in private, are explained in a 5 page report and none of the investigators read the Wegman report.
In a sense their efforts in this area serve as an excellent example of what is wrong with Climate Science. Any sense of proportionality has been removed. Their objective is kill the messenger, since they have failed so comprehensively to damage the message.
It is sad to see John Mashey has not listened to his own advice that he freely gave when touring on behalf of MIPS corporation, “your mileage may vary”, no such reservations are allowed if one is reviewing climate science.
In a decade or two, when this hysteria is over and none of their predictions have not eventuated, history will judge them harshly.
Bradley is raising a complaint on the notion that Wegman’s report contained bits that may have been plagiarized from another source (or simply not adequately referenced). If the allegations were true, would that then diminish the weight of Wegman’s conclusions, or simply give Wegman a black eye for improper referencing/crediting? If the complaint was that Wegman made up things out of whole cloth that went directly to strength of his conclusions, there should be major concerns about the entire matter, including the possible importance of MBH98. What is Bradley’s possible motivation? Plagiarism seems to be a different matter than falsified or corrupt data and flawed process.
The “criticism” of the Wegman report – plagiarism? Well – that is bad.
But if this is the “criticism” then presumably the key conclusions (shoddy statistical ‘algorithms’ used by Mann et al and peer review cliques in the ‘hockey team’ publications) are accepted by the warmies.
This is exactly the problem with PSU’s investigation into allegations against Mann. They wanted to shield him and so broke almost every rule that they, and the state government, had set up for such investigations. The same can be said for the investigation into Phil Jones’ colleague (cant remember his name offhand) and the wandering Chinese weather stations. Universities (and I say this as a member of faculty myself) have abrogated the right to make their own investigations. It will be interesting to see how they handle allegations against Wegman and whether the same ‘easy line’ is taken as has been seen in other investigations. I hope not.
Let the facts guide the investigation. But while the investigation proceeds elsewhere, we should ponder why it is that Bradley is involved in this. Wegman is not a tree-ring specialist – he’s a statistic expert. He was given the Hockey Stick review based on his being the head of the NAS stats section.
Legal definition for “plagiarize”: ” to copy and pass off (the expression of ideas or words of another) as one’s own ”
Is not it true that an investigative report is not an “original work”? Isn’t the purpose of any report to use the language and framework of the work under question, to analyze it for flaws, and tear it apart? We are not talking about poetry of tree rings, don’t we?
Was the Wegman report ever presented as “original work”? Did the committee claim the treemometer method as their own? In the particular Bradley case, the report simply describes their methodology. What could be possibly wrong with this? But I guess you never know in the world of lawyers…
“In a decade or two, when this hysteria is over and none of their predictions have not eventuated, history will judge them harshly.”
I can’t see any point in waiting.
I’m sure Wegman could get a cushy job with Heartland, or CEI, or one of those other lobbying groups if the university deems the charges of plagiarism to be valid. ..
And Tom, it is never “a pity” that shoddy science is discarded. Science is supposed to be objective, whereas the Wegman report and his Congressional testimony was clearly biased towards certain outcomes (discredit Mann, provide “skeptics” with blank ammunition to be repeated ad nauseum, and delay action on greenhouse gas emissions.)
Congratulations to John Mashey and Deep Climate for exposing the shoddy scholarship of the Wegman Report.
Steven Mosher asked me:
do you know the full story behind the graph? Did you read the mails
Probably not, since I’m not sure what the “mails” refers to. Feel free to enlighten me. Steve McIntyre has a discussion of where he thinks the graph came from (dated 2008): http://climateaudit.org/2008/05/09/where-did-ipcc-1990-figure-7c-come-from
Let the data speak for itself. So much of this controversy is driven by altered data. Whenever one sees the emphasis on “norming” or “homogenizing” or even “averaging”, we all know now that the data has been falsified. NOAA started it, but it has now become a global phenomenon of greedy morons pretending to do science while in fact doing make believe.
The real problem is that we have habitats and environments that need serious attention while these schemers suck up the energy.
It appears that New Zealand has finally realized that NIWA was a criminal enterprise. Well so is NOAA, NASA, and Mann, Hansen, etc.
Wegman, and/or his grad students may have plagiarized material.
Let’s keep this in perspective. The material, wherever it came from, buried the Hockey Stick and we have to keep that to the forefront.
What happens to Wegman and/or the grad students should be seaparate and appropriate to whatever they actually did.
This is a totally different case than, say,
http://www.informath.org/pubs/EnE07a.pdf
where the DATA used in the paper was possibly fraudulent!! In this case there are no allegations of the methods or data used, whatever their source, as being incorrect and the Hockey Stick is still dead.
If there was plagiarism I would bet on the grad students. I hope that Mr. Wegman is exonerated, but, if he actually did plagiarize he must pay. Let me stress one more time, that would in no way change the result of the Hockey Stick being found faulty!!
Oakden Wolf says:
October 8, 2010 at 10:27 pm
WHY are you showing that schematic diagram from the 1990 IPCC report that had limited data basis? It was a sketch to guide discussion based on general concepts, including anecdotal evidence (primarily European, for that matter).
Because it was used in the Wegman Report I guess.
Doug in Seattle says:
October 8, 2010 at 11:17 pm
Let the facts guide the investigation. But while the investigation proceeds elsewhere, we should ponder why it is that Bradley is involved in this. Wegman is not a tree-ring specialist – he’s a statistic expert. He was given the Hockey Stick review based on his being the head of the NAS stats section.
Bradley complained because sections of his work were copied in the Wegman Report without attribution.
So now the besieged make a desperate sally to try to disrupt the slowly gathering forces that encircle them. Well that is what a sally port is for and much good may it do them.
The fortress is undermined, its walls crumbling beneath their feet, and they know it.
What they do not understand is the firepower they are facing.
The bow and arrow is old and a potent weapon but it was the English who turned it into the first modern mass firepower weapon: and devastated France with it. It was not that the idea was new it was the technology.
The ancient Romans devised the first highly organised infantry army and they knew all about light and heavy cavalry and indeed pikes as well as bows and arrows. They also had excellent artillery and understood the idea of mass firepower but had no way to achieve it.
They could have defeated any army until Crecy when the English showed what true mass firepower with the longbow could do. No Roman general would have had any answer to that nor at the time did anyone else for a hundred years.
And it was the massed firepower of the longbow that emasculated the fortress. Up till then a great siege was needed to keep the enemy in his castle and prevent a breakout so the forces were about equal. But it only took a handful of longbowmen to confine the enemy behind his defences and so allow the army to roam free and take what they would.
What you are now seeing is much the same thing.
For over one hundred years the MSM in many forms, the press, the films, books, the TV and wireless have controlled information and the elites, especially politicians, have shrewdly used this to their advantage.
What T’Internet and the WWW has done is put this information into the hands of us all: and the blogosphere has started to organise. It is a messy process and of course these elites are trying to control it. They understand the threat. But they have no answer as of yet.
This little battle over AGW is merely a curtain raiser, like Crecy, a slight flexing of the muscles. Of the common man and woman who will not be put upon. The decisive battle, Agincourt is still some time away.
Although I shall not live to see them there are very interesting times ahead.
But this kind of counterattack so very late in the day tells you just how short of any effective ammunition the defenders of AGW, the politicians, the rent seekers, even the so called scientists are and how little they understand of the new battleground on which they must fight.
Kindest Regards
Here is the analysis from Deep Climate
http://deepclimate.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/wegman-bradley-tree-rings-v20.pdf
Having looked at Bradley’s work the first time today and having learnt most of what I know of Dendroclimatology from other sources I can’t say that I would have used much different wording when writing a background section on it. One would hope that they were describing the same thing the description would not be too different. I think on this basis alone it’s difficult to make a case of outright plagiarism especially since Wegman includes information not in the Bradley paper e.g. that carbon dioxide availability can confound the temperature signal.
I should also note that this is being handled better than Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli’s investigation of the University of Virginia’s grants for Michael Mann–basically because it’s being handled by the institution involved, as it should be.
Here’s the problem with Tom’s thinking.
UCLA Cans Professor James Enstrom for Thought Crimes.
And the results after a REAL investigation was conducted?
BREAKING: SFO Chronicle says “Faulty science behind state’s landmark diesel law” – an error of 340%
So why did it took Bradley years to notice this? Why the timing? There are always politics behind this kind of matters.