This week was a true roller coaster ride with Arctic Sea Ice. It is best summed up by looking at the JAXA graph for extent, shown below:
Below, see the area of interest magnified.
I’ve added the 5 million square kilometer line for reference.
The roller coaster ride actually looked for a day like it might cross the 2009 line, but soon turned down again, ending this week at 5,142,813. Here’s the recent JAXA data
08,28,2010,5342656 08,29,2010,5352500 08,30,2010,5348281 08,31,2010,5329375 09,01,2010,5332344 09,02,2010,5304219 09,03,2010,5245625 09,04,2010,5192188 09,05,2010,5142813
Source: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv
JAXA sea ice area has dropped to 2008 levels:
JAXA AMSR-E Sea Ice Area – click to enlarge
Sea ice concentration from JAXA:
While JAXA shows extent now lower than 2009, DMI and NANSEN plots show it to be about even. The differences in observing sensor/platform AMSRE -vs-SSMI and methodologies at agencies are in play.
Above: Danish Meteorological Institute Arctic Sea Ice Extent – 30% or greater. Note that while this graph shows 30% concentration at the cutoff point, it is valuable to compare.
Above: NANSEN Artic ROOS- Sea ice extent 15% or greater – click for larger image
The differences appear to be in the low end of concentration, the 15% to 30% range. It suggests that the brief gains we saw may be wind related, blowing floating ice around, compacting it when winds are strong versus allowing expansion when winds are weak.
Temperature, after holding near freezing, now appears headed sharply downward.
Above: Danish Meteorological Institute – Mean Temperature above 80°N
Some light refreezing may take place before the end of September, which could minimize the ability of wind to sharply change extent like we saw recently.
With all these variables in play, choosing a winner will be as much a game of luck as of skill. Based on what we’ve seen, it seems probable that it will come from the middle of the pack between 2008 and 2009.
From SEARCH:
The estimates from the scientific community range from 4.0 to 5.6 million square kilometers, with 8 of the contributors suggesting a September minimum below 5.0 million square kilometers, 3 contributors suggesting a minimum of 5.0 million square kilometers, and 5 contributors suggesting a September minimum above 5.0 million square kilometers. Two contributors forecast a September minimum below that of 2007 at 4.0 million square kilometers and 3 contributors suggest a return to the long term downward linear trend for September sea ice loss (5.5 to 5.6 million square kilometers). None of the contributors indicate a return to the climatological sea ice extent of 6.7 million square kilometers.
Including all 18 contributions gives a September ice extent minimum of 4.8 +/- 0.77 million square kilometers, with a range of 2.5 to 5.6 million square kilometers.
Individual responses were based on a range of methods: statistical, numerical models, comparison with previous observations and rates of ice loss, or composites of several approaches.
In the end, the northern waters will refreeze once again, the various passages will become choked with ice and the curves will begin their climb towards annual maximum. Ice melts and sublimates when the temps (air and water) warm up and ice reforms when temps are lowered. Will we have learned anything from another cycle, other than our own mortality and the fact that this dance will continue long after the six billion of us now living will have returned to star dust?
Technical note: SEARCH estimates are supposed to be based (and will be judged) on the NSIDC extent figures, not the IJIS figures. There’s not much to choose between them, however the NSIDC graph does seem to be reading a little below IJIS, and is already below 5 million sq km.
Mike, you are completely missing the point.
As usual.
Yes the sea ice will return every winter even after there is none in summer. However the impact of a summer absorbing sunlight instead of reflecting it, on the warming of this planet, will return many millions of us to dust much, much sooner than would normally be the case.
Or do you just not care about the other 6Billion 999 million 999thousand and 999 people in the world?
Well its been an interesting diversion, checking the IARC-JAXA and NOAA sites daily as well as this site twice a day or more however it proves nothing does it? Ice comes and goes, forms and reforms and gets blown around by wide and moved by currents.
RGates was proven wrong because he chose to play the forecaster from an ideological perspective and its to be hoped he learned a valuable lesson but so was I and others too, PIOMAS was utterly wrong and PIPS was fairly right, the NOAA dudes were wrong and others were right(ish) and all the super duper models were dead wrong and the UK met office just continued to be a sad pathetic joke.
I was tempted to think that this melt season would be the death blow for the AGW industry but its clear that the death will from a thousand cuts and not a long drop and short stop.
So wrong and right we all of have hopefully learned valuable lessons and thanks to this site our education continues apace, a free site for free thinking sceptics contributing,sharing and receiving knowledge and so the motto should be ‘we aint all that but at least we are learning’.
Whilst the area will vary, depending on wind and ocean currents, it would be good to know how thick the ice is compared to other years. It must be ice volume that has more bearing on climate than area which could be thin but of great extent but low volume. We must also remember that water temperature has much more effect on ice than air temperature and in 2007 it was discovered that warmer water had entered the Arctic from the Pacific. So not due to climate change as we were led to believe by the alarmists.
So, two steps forward and one step back in a strong El Nino year. My estimate for 2011 is 5.6M km2 on Jaxa Sea Ice Extent, just below 2006 and ahead of 2005, as a result of El Nino sucking out all the heat out of the atmosphere, and the PDO shift sending colder waters to the Arctic. Will we see record sea ice extent in the Antarctic?
It is always interesting to learn about the various approaches to measurement and to see the resulting difference in the graphs. I still wonder which conclusions anybody can draw from it.
One thing I would like to see is the incorporation of the “Limit of permanent pack ice” line into these nice modern pictures of the artic. This line is for example shown in “The Times Atlas Of The World”, ed. 1997, and presumably in other atlasses and maps as well. Are these “old” informations considered at all in modern climatology? The cartographers must have had some facts about the reality in the areas they covered, I suppose.
The incorporation of this line should clearly show open water, where the line had been – if the stories of the continously retreating artic ice are correct.
It would be very nice if someone could point me to pictures/maps/etc. which show the actual ice cover and the “limit of permanent pack ice”. Preferably an established limit, that has been used in respectable maps. And if possible just a simple picture of the area on a clear, sunny day – I happen to have reservations about pictures/graphs which are constructed form highly sophisticated, complex (and thus potentially fault riddeled) sensors respectively calculations.
Last not least: Thank you for this excellent site! It is the source of information about climate I use and trust the most.
So Joe Bastardi was spot on. He predicted summer melt in spring to be between 2008 and 2009, but then strong refreeze and continuing summer recovery in style “two steps up, one step down”.
Yeah, we have learned that if we act like pigs and wait for some cosmic force to clean our house for us, they will likely throw us out with the bathwater, leaving nothing for our kids.
In case you haven’t guessed, i am an alarmist, [snip]
Showing August forecasts (August of this year) for September (of this year) is a bit ridiculous; anybody should be able to get that right. One should look at the June forecasts to see who really understands what is going on.
Note: SEARCH does not use the gold standard (JAXA), or even the notoriously honest Norwegian or Danish data, but some US produced numbers (by the same people who also take part in the competition). And their prognisis are for the September mean, not the minimum.
Speculating on Sea Ice extents and areas is good sport.
Especially if one does not have to visit the places where those 2 cams are.
Sure am glad it ain’t me.
I agree. Here is a geological perspective about carbon.
http://www.theamericanscholar.org/what-the-earth-knows/
While 15 % ice extend means little more than fractured, icy clutter on the edges of the arctic ice cover, Nansen’s 30 % ice extend seems to me to give a far better “feel” of the shape of things in the Arctic.
And in that, the arctic ice extend seems to be quite well on it’s way back to normal.
Mike Sphar: There speaks a man of wisdom. This AGW hoo-hah is born of Man’s belief that he has become so powerful that he is the cause of variation in Nature.
There is conjecture that a black hole is at the centre of our galaxy. Has anybody told the polticians? They’ll want to find out whose fault this is, and what to do about it!
I think we’ll see a quicker re-freeze than previous years, and thicker ice again next year.
It will be interesting to see what happens in the next week, currently there is still southerly winds blowing from the Russian side so that might compact / melt the ice to some extent. I doubt we will get anywhere near the 2008 Jaxa extent wise level though.
Andy
Hold on, wasn’t the North Pole supposed to be ice free this summer ?
Funny how we are being told it’s the hottest weather ever since time began but the North Pole isn’t cooperating.
NeilT I don’t think your argument about reflectivity is valid until the sea ice melts already in June. Now the arctic sun is already very low in the sky, at those angles even open water will reflect most of the weak sunlight.
mrjohn says:
September 6, 2010 at 5:28 am
Hold on, wasn’t the North Pole supposed to be ice free this summer ?
But look at the Cryosphere Today images right now – a small hole right in the middle – OMG THE NORTH POLE IS ICE FREE!!!
Sea ice extent data on its own only tells part of the story. On my site:
http://www.climatedata.info/Discussions/Discussions/opinions.php?id=8582852482576247641
I have also plotted the variation in ice thickness. This shows that whilst 2007 had the lowest extent the lowest thickness was in 2008. The thickness recovered in 2009 and looks to be continuing its recovery this year.
If you have a problemwith the link, go to:
http://www.climatedata.info/Discussions/Discussions/opinions.php
…and click in “Thesis 3”
NeilT says:
“Or do you just not care about the other 6Billion 999 million 999thousand and 999 people in the world?”
———–
Neil, you’re implying you care and yet you don’t care about me! There are actually 7 billion and one people on Earth, not counting those in the space station.
I honestly think you guys are trying to measure at the wrong times. You’re looking at the extremes, highs and lows.
One thing is consistent, the May/June and Nov/Dec levels are just about always constant.
No matter how wacked out the levels are in March or September, the extremes, it always goes back to almost the same in the middle, May/June and Nov/Dec.
1st year on this site & have learned A whole lot . I have a tremendous respect for the minds that contribute here & even just on this latest thread with just 18 responses I could quote quite a few that I like.
THE WIND!..I learned that this is such a tricky player & I think that next year there will be a greater grasp on this factor. I agree that we should Identify the solid Ice mass & seperate that from the broken up stuff & then come up with some better F-casting tools for the compacting /wind shift which will have to be added to the much more accurate thickness value…..anyway obviously My posts here have been just a playful entertainment for me but the “Rocket Sturgeon” will return next year after retreating into my homework studies dungeon & come back strong next year!..While I’m still playing..the ice will slow to a trickle after the 6th & reach a min on the 12th…Word!..
“mrjohn says:
September 6, 2010 at 5:28 am
Hold on, wasn’t the North Pole supposed to be ice free this summer ?”
No, I believe Al Gore in his great alarmist wisdom predicted a forecast of a prognosis for an ice free arctic death spiral in summer 2012. So we will see in 2 years. I wonder if Phil. has already booked his Carneval cruise to the Northpole for that year.
NeilT-
Huh? Arctic ice conditions alone will not kill you, relax. Also, remember there is an Antarctic where we are at or near record highs for ice. meaning the global sea ice extent has varied little since 1979. Why don’t you read that in the papers?
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg