Hot in Europe – Cold in South America

By Steve Goddard

NCEP is forecasting temperatures far above normal for the next week in Europe. I don’t think I have ever seen the Europe map so red before. This is a reflection of very warm sea surface temperatures west of Europe over the last month, as seen in the video below.

Meanwhile, South America is expected to be equally far below normal.

Sea surface temperatures west of South America have been running well below normal (developing La Niña.)

The Met Office should have stuck with their barbecue summer forecast. Sooner or later it was bound to happen.

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87 thoughts on “Hot in Europe – Cold in South America

  1. The ancients had a word for the effects you are describing: weather.

    Who knew that it might be hot in summer while at the same time being cold in the antipodean winter.

    Obviously more research is needed.

    Please send money.

  2. The Met Office should have stuck with their barbecue summer forecast. Sooner or later it was bound to happen.

    Indeed, even a broken watch is right twice a day.

  3. Greetings from the currently overheated Central Europe – Pilsen, Czechia. It’s up to 36 deg Celsius in our cities but it’s kind of pleasant if you have access to swimming pools etc. We expect thundestorms and cooling as early as tomorrow but we could have tropical – above 30 deg C – temperatures for the big part of this week.

  4. If the cause of the above normal temperatures in Europe is above average sea surface temperatures west of Europe, why do England and Norway look so normal? Why is the hottest spot around Archangel and north-central Russia south of the White Sea? Interesting that the temperatures around the Mediterranean look so normal.

  5. “The Met Office should have stuck with their barbecue summer forecast. Sooner or later it was bound to happen.”

    I’m surprised they didn’t.

    That’s what they practice, throw enough out there and something is bound to be right.

    More snow, less snow
    Hotter, colder
    Wetter, drier
    More ice, less ice

    You name, they have it covered.

    Love the link that RGates posted.
    Now they ever have the next ice age covered.

    Keep in mind this is New Scientist, ok. But the fact that they printed it says it all.

    http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19155-soaring-arctic-temperatures–a-warning-from-history.html

    “”At that time, CO2 levels are thought to have been close to current levels – around 390 parts per million – but global temperatures were around 2 to 3 °C warmer than today.

    It was the last warm period before the onset of the Pleistocene glaciation,

    and is used by climate researchers as a model for our future climate.””

  6. This is interesting, especially since central South America has seen above average temperatures last week:

    And so has Europe:

  7. The Met Office just refuse to issue seasonal forecasts now. Not because they were a contrary indicator, of course not. No – it was because the stupid public couldn’t understand them.

  8. Coastal Europe, Iceland, Ireland, the UK and Norway appear to be mostly neutral to negative anomaly; no barbecue there. The higher Atlantic SST effects central Europe how, by a change in the jet stream? High pressure?

  9. Be that as it may, NASA-GISS has anounced that the 12-month running-mean global temp has reached a new record in 2010, despite the recent solar minimum. But wait, didn’t NASA fake the moon landing, too?

  10. Unrelated to this, but the surfacestations.org front page hasn’t been updated in almost a year. Did it get past the 82% at that time?

  11. Cold winters usually tend to bring warm summers. Winter here ( The Netherlands )was colder then the last ten.

  12. Luboš Motl says:
    July 12, 2010 at 10:45 am

    Greetings from the currently overheated Central Europe – Pilsen, Czechia. It’s up to 36 deg Celsius in our cities but it’s kind of pleasant if you have access to swimming pools etc. We expect thundestorms and cooling as early as tomorrow but we could have tropical – above 30 deg C – temperatures for the big part of this week.

    huh. you must be getting our summer. cold here in california-

    http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2010/07/record-cold-at-lax-airport-as-july-gloom-continues-in-southern-california.html

    Unusually cold temperatures in Southern California continued, with Los Angeles International Airport setting a record low on Friday.

    LAX got to only 67 degrees, breaking a record set in 1926, according to the National Weather Service.

    http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/jul/06/grsq-dreary-clouds-last-until-mid-week/

    The temperature only reached 62 degrees in Oceanside Harbor. The record “low high” for this date is 65. That record was set in 2002. The harbor averages a high of 74 degrees this time of year.

  13. Cool Guys over at Un RealClimate unaffected by European Weather.
    “The long-awaited and surprisingly thorough Muir Russell report (readable online version) was released this morning. We’ve had a brief read through of the report, but a thorough analysis of this and the supplemental information on the web site will have to wait for a day or so.”

    Our Gav and his mate Mickey Taker are over the moon with Lord Muir of the Wash?
    So I says:-
    So this is cheering news boys?
    When someone says delete the emails they mean save the emails? Obvious see.
    When someone uses a trick to hide the decline they mean delete the inconvenient data? Well I never.

    The report has as much value has the Widgery Report and Hutton Report?

  14. Best greetings from Jülich in Germany. This morning there was…a sandstrom over the city. No, the sand wasn’t blown away from Africa, but from the next open cast mining.

  15. Roald says:
    July 12, 2010 at 11:01 am
    “But wait, didn’t NASA fake the moon landing,”

    What have you been smoking?

  16. Notice that the base period for anomaly calculation is 1901-2000 CRU data set.
    If you watch these things over a month or two, you’ll see them going off the deep trend end.
    If it’s below normal, they’ll forecast snowball hell.
    If it’s above normal, they’ll forecast fire & brimstone.
    The grandmaster climate system easily crushes the hapless program.
    The GCM’s are novice at the game, not being able to think more than 2 moves ahead.

  17. If only there were some way to look at the global average temperature over a period of time to find out if these regional temperature fluctuations were part of a larger trend.

  18. Cold winters usually tend to bring warm summers. Winter here ( The Netherlands )was colder then the last ten.

    the problem with this claim is a simple one: the winter in the northern hemisphere was WARM, not cold.

    and the summer is also warm.

    your rule is not a good explanation for the heat.

    ———————-

    comparing Europe with South America is fine. but Steven could have mentioned the rest of the world, at least in one sentence.

  19. Here in Greece we have had a cool June and a cool July up to now, temperatures rarely over 32degrees and mostly in unusual 27 28C. People are commenting that is September weather and not July.

    It has been an air conditioned summer, i.e no need for it, since the nights are cool.

    July usually hits over 37C for days, often reaches 40 and sometimes 45, so I think their anomalies are off.

    Just listened for Athens and it gives 37 maximum tomorrow. I am by the sea and I doubt it will be 34C

  20. We have had a pleasant warm summer with plenty of sunshine hours here in the northern UK. This has more to do with the jet streams moving south of us than sst’s being high though.

  21. Do we have a greater disconnect from the tropics than previously?

    A European summers/winters usually have many Atlantic lows, bringing cooler moister weather in the summer, and warmer moister weather in the winter.

    Now we have very few Atlantic lows, giving a cold dry winter/spring, and a hot dry summer.

    Is the same happening in the S. Atlantic – I have not been following the weather patterns there.

    .

  22. I forecast heat waves from 12th June, 27th June, another slight uplift from 3rd July, and had forecast a brief drop in the 2nd week of July, and a further moderate heat wave starting around mid July. It would be expected that any drop now would be quite dramatic in the S.H. with it being like N.H. February for them. This current drop is already being noticed in Europe, with temp`s dropping and rain increasing.
    This was last week in S.America;
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/wctan15.gif (Roald)
    what will it be like in a week or two? the solar signal moves fast.

  23. Richard says:
    July 12, 2010 at 11:07 am

    Cold winters usually tend to bring warm summers. Winter here ( The Netherlands )was colder then the last ten.

    Well, for Greece, I have noticed that if the winter is mild, the summer is cooler than usual.Our winter was mild and I was foreseeing a cool, i.e. no heat waves above 37, summer. Lets see how it turns out. Twenty years ago we hit a week of maximum 45C . That was something, but I do not remember the previous winter.

    Maybe there is a law of conservation, “you get so much heat energy for the year, distrbute it well” :)

  24. Today’s SST map shows the developing La Nina pretty well and some of the points Steve is making.

    Related to South America, the Peru-Humbolt current which flows up the Chile/Peru coast from the southern ocean to the equator and partially into the ENSO area as well has really cooled off in the past week. There are a few 1.5X1.5 degree blocks which are -5.0C. This is certainly going to impact temperatures in the southern half of South America in the weeks ahead. The forecast is for it to cool off even more.

  25. Roald

    Roald says:
    July 12, 2010 at 11:01 am
    Be that as it may, NASA-GISS has anounced that the 12-month running-mean global temp has reached a new record in 2010, despite the recent solar minimum. But wait, didn’t NASA fake the moon landing, too?

    The following is graph through June 2010 of the UAH satellite average global temperature. It has a running 13 month average. At the end of June the running average was still below the 1998 peak caused by the mother of all El Ninos. I don’t know what data NASA is using or how they’re massaging it to get a record.

  26. @Brad Johnson (11:22 am)
    If only there were some way to look at the global average temperature over a period of time to find out if these regional temperature fluctuations were part of a larger trend.

    You can build your own anomaly maps for specific time periods using GISS data here: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/ Use different timeperiods and compare (on multiple tabs)

    Or if you dont’t mind looking at trend data you can look at the maps used to generate this post: http://diggingintheclay.wordpress.com/2010/01/18/mapping-global-warming/ Link to interactive versions of maps here: http://www.climateapplications.com/MapsGISS.asp

  27. I live in middle part of Norway and i can definitely confirm that we have been running below normal for most of this summer. Been below normal for all months this year with exception of april.
    Same with north western parts of norway as well.

  28. Europe in the red ? In my part of Europe there were October temperatures until a couple of days ago, and even today it was not very hot, definitely not July hot.

  29. rbateman says: {July 12, 2010 at 11:18 am}
    “Notice that the base period for anomaly calculation is 1901-2000 CRU data set.”

    Yes I did notice that right away. I also noticed it actually said:

    “Normal temperature derived from CRU monthly climatology for 1901-2000″

    Is this just egghead speak for “temperature records” or is it temperature that has been estimated via whatever method suited them at the time?

  30. @anna v
    We were just saying here too over the weekend that the weather (Northern UK) is more like September than July.
    Twenty years ago we hit a week of maximum 45C . I remember that. Friends who went to Greece and said it was more of an experience than a vacation. I was writing my PhD thesis and was very glad I had elected not to go with them.

  31. Sunday night was the coldest since records began in 1947 in the centre of New Zealand’s North Island. Lovely clear midwinter skies and brass monkey temps.

  32. Tom in Florida says:

    I noted that as well. If they calculated these anomalies from that whole period then everywhere will be RED.

  33. Two sides of the same coin: High Pressures.
    In winter, deep freeze; in summer, heatwaves. And this is not what the Global warming world is supposed to look like…

  34. The Pacific dumped its heat last year via high surface temperatures. Now it looks like the North Atlantic is doing the same thing. This should show up in the average ocean temperature data not far down the road. Average ocean temps have been falling for several years, and will probably show a sharp drop this year.

    Since 99% of earth’s heat carrying capacity is in the oceans, the average ocean temperature IS the earth’s temperature, within about 1%. We know definitively that the earth is cooling because the oceans are cooling. If only we had better ocean temperature measurements.

    Question: I recently came across a statement that the satellite SST measurements use sea surface height to measure the temperature of the top 700 meters of ocean water (pretty much all the water that is subject to temperature mixing). Is this correct? I’m pretty sure this was from Pilke Sr. last month, but the link to his PDF is no longer functional so I can’t check (http://www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/R-334.pdf).

    In the discussions I have seen of ocean temperatures I have never come across this crucial tidbit before. Shaviv, for instance, has been looking at the use of tidal gauges for measuring temperature-driven expansion of the oceans, but his post on the subject last year made no mention that satellite “surface temps” actually measure the average temp of the top 700 meters:

    It turns out that there are three different types of data sets from which the ocean heat content can derived. The first data is that of direct measurements using buoys. The second is the ocean surface temperature, while the third is that of the tide gauge record which reveals the thermal expansion of the oceans. Each one of the data sets has different advantages and disadvantages.

    If Pilke (?) is correct, then it seems we actually have quite a detailed measure of average ocean temperatures, but NOT a good measure of actual, you know, surface temps. Which is it?

  35. Hello all,

    we hit 37degC here in north-eastern Austria ( between Vienna and the Czech border ). As I was coming home from the shops in the nearest town, I noticed that the tarmac on the main road in the next village was melting. Tsk it has only been laid a couple of years :-)

    Luckily my house is made of stone and was a pleasant 24 degC when I struggled home.

    Late May and early June were terrible – it was just like November. We have the same weather as Lubos above and are expecting thunderstorms and the heat to continue for a few days yet.

  36. Really, heat way?

    Up until the last week we had almost 15C after midnight. For almost a week now we’ven’t gone as low as 23C after midnight. Funny thing is this usually happens around every mid july to beginning of august for a week or so every year. This is partly why the socialist of old stopped all work during july because it’s always too friggin hot to work in july, but of course it went along with the unions wanting vacations for the workers which was the main point. :p

  37. sod

    If you happened to live in Nunavut, the winter was “warm.” (Warm meaning -20C instead of -25C.) For most of the rest of us in the Northern Hemisphere, it was a cold winter.

  38. Dave Springer says: July 12, 2010 at 11:50 am

    Roald

    Roald says:
    July 12, 2010 at 11:01 am
    Be that as it may, NASA-GISS has anounced that the 12-month running-mean global temp has reached a new record in 2010, despite the recent solar minimum. But wait, didn’t NASA fake the moon landing, too?

    The following is graph through June 2010 of the UAH satellite average global temperature. It has a running 13 month average. At the end of June the running average was still below the 1998 peak caused by the mother of all El Ninos. I don’t know what data NASA is using or how they’re massaging it to get a record.

    If you look carefully at the UAH graph, you’ll see that the running 13 month average doesn’t extend beyond the beginning of 2010, and it’s above the January 1998 reading.

  39. Hansen was also crowing about record temps in 2007 – before La Nina hit.

    What he doesn’t like to talk about is that temperatures have risen much slower than even his most conservative warming scenario.

    Who cares if it is 0.01 degrees warmer than some other year? Especially when temperatures are about to plummet.

  40. anna v says: July 12, 2010 at 11:34 am

    Here in Greece we have had a cool June and a cool July up to now, temperatures rarely over 32degrees and mostly in unusual 27 28C. People are commenting that is September weather and not July.

    It has been an air conditioned summer, i.e no need for it, since the nights are cool.

    July usually hits over 37C for days, often reaches 40 and sometimes 45, so I think their anomalies are off.

    Just listened for Athens and it gives 37 maximum tomorrow. I am by the sea and I doubt it will be 34C

    I may be wrong, but according to the Greek National Meteorological service, the average temperature for July in Athens is 32°C and 33.5°C for Nea Filadelfia:

    http://www.hnms.gr/hnms/english/climatology/climatology_region_diagrams_html?dr_city=Athens_Hellinikon

    And if you can trust NOAA, then June was pretty much normal in Greece:

  41. http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

    Here in UK the CET anomaly, halfway through the 7th month is still negative and no remarkable daily highs have been reached.
    Notwithstanding that AGW is barely mentioned in the MSM, the coalition government continues it’s renewable obligation taxation increases programme unremarked, and wilfully pushes wind and wave power whilst neglecting the putative nuclear providers, whose first station cannot now be readied until 2018.
    The lights will go out long before that: indeed, without the French Interconnector supplying us nuclear powered electricity on a daily basis, the lights would be going out already.
    This is what you get when you elect career politicians. Wind, Hot Air and then brownouts. God help us.

  42. Roald says:
    July 12, 2010 at 1:03 pm
    “[...]If you look carefully at the UAH graph, you’ll see that the running 13 month average doesn’t extend beyond the beginning of 2010, and it’s above the January 1998 reading.”

    As El Nino is over, the 13 month average can only drop from where it’s now. So it won’t get as high as in 1998.

    Since 1998, CO2 concentrations have risen by about 20 ppm, from about 368 to 389 today. But it hasn’t led to higher temperatures. IMHO this is a clear sign that a negative feedback counteracts any LWIR-trapping properties of CO2.

    (GISS reports record temperatures, but they get their data from airports. They’re irrelevant.)

  43. anna v says: at 11:45 am

    Well, for Greece, I have noticed that if the winter is mild, the summer is cooler than usual.Our winter was mild and I was foreseeing a cool, i.e. no heat waves above 37, summer. Lets see how it turns out. Twenty years ago we hit a week of maximum 45C . That was something, but I do not remember the previous winter.

    Maybe there is a law of conservation, “you get so much heat energy for the year, distrbute it well” :)

    Its a rule of thumb the farmers use here but it seems to be very accurate.
    Since the annual temperature doesn’t rise it seems logical that cold winters and hot summers eliminate each other thus keeping the temperature level.

    @ Sod : Trust me , it was a cold winter here. I’ll send you my energy bill as proof if want.

  44. Very cold in South Island New Zealand.

    Otago (S.I. Province) is in the grip of a persistent cold snap that has seen many towns in the region record air frosts nearly every day of the past three weeks.
    The air frost temperatures were “pretty severe” even for July in Otago and were near record in places, Niwa climate scientist Georgina Griffiths said.
    Dunedin Airport’s -6.7degC yesterday was the second-coldest July air temperature recorded at the site since 1947, and the -7.2degC at Queenstown was the third-coldest since 1871.

  45. Watching these prediction models get it all wrong is getting fun. Locally our hurricane forecasters were hyping it up, you know we are all going to die. They are now silent.

    What the predictions do is drive up people’s insurance costs, because they are based on what the NHC says is likely to happen.

  46. Steve Goddard – FWIW here in west central Florida during Jan/Feb/Mar daily highs ran about 5 degrees C below the recent norm, and lows ran about 2 degrees C below, and we had several freezing nights. Some of our tropical shrubbery died, and colder than normal waters killed a lot of near surface corel farther south, to say nothing of chilled iguanas falling out of trees. April/ May were pretty normal. first half June was warmer than normal, followed by second half cooler, and July so far is about normal. Overall we are likely to have a pretty cool year for Florida.

  47. Positive Weather Solutions correctly predicted a freezing winter 2009-10 and a BBQ summer. Now they are saying this coming European winter will be the same as the last.

    Give them the trophy if they get it right again.

  48. tarpon says:
    July 12, 2010 at 1:35 pm
    Watching these prediction models get it all wrong is getting fun. Locally our hurricane forecasters were hyping it up, you know we are all going to die. They are now silent.

    What the predictions do is drive up people’s insurance costs, because they are based on what the NHC says is likely to happen.””””

    Yea but the NHC predictions are a moving target. They constantly adjust them, so by the end of the season, danged if they aren’t right again.

  49. All of this reminds me greatly of the explanation of the observable universe according to Socrates and Ptolemy. The motions of “heavenly bodies” were explained by concentric crystalline (the “perfect” substance) spheres rotating at different angular velocities. Planets were not attached to the spheres themselves, but to circles attached to the spheres. (Termed “epicycles”)

    As time passed, more and more epicycles, themselves attached to epicycles, had to be devised to explain observed movements. Circles within circles.

    Devise circles and more circles, and you will soon find yourself running around in circles. Which is about where we are right now regarding global warming/cooling.

    As far as considering the temperatures in other parts of the world, last I looked there were and are darned few thermometers to be “read”, and the confidence level that any of these few thermometer readings where there are thermometers to be “read” are done with any accuracy or discipline should be small to zero. That these few thermometer readings represent average temperatures over huge land masses is an absurd concept. With all of the government money spent here in the US on temperature measurements, Anthony and crew have demonstrated that even here there are significant problems in “getting it right”.

    This site of Anthony’s is by far the best site to get any factual information about the global temperature condition, and the science involved, and is the most informative of any of them.

    Thanks again, Anthony.

  50. 11:30PM, Prague, CZ
    25.5°C outside
    31.5°C inside

    All windows are opened, but I can’t get the temperature down. :(
    I need some A/C asap.

  51. We have been experiencing brass monkey weather in souther Australia, too. Surprise – it’s winter here! But it feel unusually cold to me, and I’ve been here for 81 years. Weather and seasons don’t seem to figure in the crazy modelling of the AGW crowd.

  52. I don’t care whose summer we’ve been getting by mistake here in the very south of England, we are just grateful to get two weeks of uninterrupted sunshine!
    My veggie garden has rushed to catch to to where it should be and the roses are a delight to behold.
    Had a BBQ this evening, nice thick steaks, mine done to French blue, hers to medium. Very pleasant Cab Sav on the side made a meal in the English gloaming an absolute experience. Had a thrush serenading us. Nice.

  53. Would someone please keep track, and post something in about a week to show how well/wrong these predictions were? There doesn’t seen to be any accountability to these predictions. Having spent a total of 11 years in Europe, I know it can be unseasonably warm at times, but it usually cools down quickly.

  54. sod says:
    July 12, 2010 at 11:31 am

    Cold winters usually tend to bring warm summers. Winter here ( The Netherlands )was colder then the last ten.

    the problem with this claim is a simple one: the winter in the northern hemisphere was WARM, not cold.

    and the summer is also warm.

    your rule is not a good explanation for the heat.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Sod, If last winter in the NH was so warm how do you explain this?

    The “homogonized” and “adjusted” and “cherry picked” temperatures may have said it was a “warm” winter, Mother Nature and the news show what a big lie that was. Just like this graph. http://i31.tinypic.com/2149sg0.gif

    “UP to 20 million farm animals may die in Mongolia before spring as the fiercest winter in living memory grips the country, International Aid Agencies warned today.” (half of Mongolia’s entire herd—may perish, , a quarter of a million animals and livestock died each week…

    http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/million-farm-animals-freeze-to-death/story-e6frfku0-1225827780294#ixzz0tW2MH0HM

    Snow cover 2008 vs 2010: http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/New%20Image.GIF

    The USA had snow in all fifty states.
    Lots of new cold and snow records in the USA this past week: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/13/lots-of-new-cold-and-snow-records-in-the-usa-this-week/

    Severe snowstorms batter China: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/28/world/asia/28iht-china.1.9543336.html
    “Severe snowstorms over broad swaths of eastern and central China have wreaked havoc on traffic throughout the country, creating gigantic passenger backups, spawning accidents and leaving at least 24 people dead, according to state news reports.

    In many areas, where snow has continued falling for several days, the accumulation has been described as the heaviest in as many as five decades.”

    In Canada, several all-time snowfall records were set during winter, reaching more than 550 centimetres (cm) in many locations, including Quebec City. In Toronto, it was the third snowiest winter on record for the past 70 years. At the end of January, Prince Edward Island was struck by one of the worst ice storms in decades.
    “Canada freezes as snow storm strands thousands”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/13/2770207.htm

    Long Range forecaster Mark Vogan predicts worst cold outbreak of the current decade for the northern plains down to Florida near when December ends.

    http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/2009/12/50-below-zero-air-too-close-for-comfort.html

    Snow in Florida. Deep freeze in the deep south: http://www.examiner.com/x-11224-Baltimore-Weather-Examiner~y2010m1d9-Snow-in-Florida–Deep-freeze-in-the-deep-south

    “Wintry weather sweeping across the Northern Hemisphere has slowed coal deliveries in parts of the U.S. South, where Texas is braced for record electrical demand and Florida eased truck rules to help farmers move their crops. “ http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3aMFGtaK37w

    The storm also may produce a record snowfall for Baltimore, which has 21 inches of snow so far, according to the National Weather Service…. http://edition.cnn.com/2010/US/weather/02/05/winter.storm/index.html

    “Freak snow storm covers southern France” http://www.english.rfi.fr/france/20100505-surprise-snow-southern-france

    Temperatures were glacial across Europe over the weekend, kills 22 across Europe

    Freak snow falls in Spain strands 6000. March 9, 2010. AFP. A freak snowstorm dumped more than a metre of snow on the Pyrenees mountains. Spanish snow leaves 250000 without power

    BBC News – Big freeze tightens its grip on England
    major snow storm – bitterly cold united kingdom

    Heavy snow claims over 30 lives in north China

    A major snowstorm has battered Russia’s Pacific island of Sakhalin since New Year’s Eve, stranding almost 60 cars on the main highway… Snowfall in St. Petersburg breaks 130-year record… Heavy snow covers Moscow

  55. Roald says:
    July 12, 2010 at 11:01 am

    Be that as it may, NASA-GISS has anounced that the 12-month running-mean global temp has reached a new record in 2010, despite the recent solar minimum. But wait, didn’t NASA fake the moon landing, too?

    No.

  56. John Barrett says:
    July 12, 2010 at 1:01 pm

    ….Late May and early June were terrible – it was just like November. We have the same weather as Lubos above and are expecting thunderstorms and the heat to continue for a few days yet.
    ____________________________________________________________
    Same here in North Carolina. Cold in April and May and didn’t really get summer until June. It is still not as hot as it was in 2004. We are having a lot of thunderstorms the last couple of weeks which keep the temperatures down.

  57. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8492333.stm

    Scotland records coldest winter
    The past two months have entered the record books
    Scotland has suffered some of the coldest winter months in almost 100 years, the Met Office has confirmed.
    By combining the temperatures of January and December it showed they were the coldest since 1914 – the year data started being logged.
    Elsewhere, it was the coldest December and January in Northern Ireland since 1962/63 and the coldest in England and Wales since 1981/82.

  58. Steve –
    The deep blue of the South American map is at the top and mostly east of the mountains. Along the west coast the area is white, that is, normal. So the south-central blue (below normal) area, being east of the mountains ought not to be overly influenced by the Humboldt Current. Would not the Brazil Current be of more influence in this region? The Falkland Current would be a cool influence but that area is not part of your map.

  59. @roger says:
    July 12, 2010 at 1:17 pm

    http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

    Here in UK the CET anomaly, halfway through the 7th month is still negative and no remarkable daily highs have been reached.
    _______________________________________________
    0,11C behind after such a cold winter means a lot of catching up has taken place from April onwards. Its been years since we have had a number of days in the low 30`s.

  60. Sod, If last winter in the NH was so warm how do you explain this?

    The “homogonized” and “adjusted” and “cherry picked” temperatures may have said it was a “warm” winter, Mother Nature and the news show what a big lie that was.

    all datasets show the northern hemisphere far above the average last winter. it is a fact. and you can not contradict it, by citing weather events.

    if you think that GISS is manipulating their data, just take a look at Roy Spencer and UAH:

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/03/february-2010-uah-global-temperature-update-version-5-3-unveiled/

    the last winter was hot in the NH. it is a fact.

    REPLY: SOD, Dr. Spencer released V5.3 in response to issues raised here and elsewhere (on some blogs you frequent) about seasonal variations in the data, especially spring. I personally talked to him about the issue at ICCC2. You haven’t the faintest idea of what you are talking about. You are just spewing for the sake of saying something negative about “adjustments” in the context of UAH.

    I suggest you go somewhere else you [self snip]. You have proven time and again you are incapable of adding anything useful here. -A

  61. Christchurch New Zealand ,
    We had a -6.2c frost the coldest in 3 years .
    July avg sofar -1.4c on normal.

  62. Despite the BBC TV weather people warning us last week of health risks associated with a coming heat-wave, my max-min thermometer in my back yard (an Urban Heat Island by definition) eventually struggled up to a max of 30C before cool weather sunk the mercury again. We have enjoyed a couple of weeks of evening barbecues and warm nights, but I am carefully watering all of our plants as the forecast rainfall just does not eventuate – we were supposed to have ‘torrential’ rain overnight, but both of my rain gauges agree at 1.3 cc, marginally above a ‘trace’.
    Sure, 30C is uncomfortably warm for suburban London, but hardly life-threatening.

  63. Roald says:
    July 12, 2010 at 1:11 pm

    Well, I suppose am reporting how people see the current weather and remember past weather. I suppose that in the averaging over a month the extremes that remain in memory and the series of days off the average are erased.

    Everybody has been commenting on how cool this summer has been. Possibly if we hit a series of 37C we will be within the average for July which is not out yet.

    Mind you Hellenicon is a former airport near the sea.
    N.Philadelphia is inland and a heat trap, always warmer than our thermometers.

  64. It must really grind you, Sod, that the hot NH winter was perceived as cold. And it must grind you yet further that some alarmists used the snow as proof of ‘anthropogenic climate change’ even though such as Michael ‘Only in it for the Glory’ Tobis knew it was just the jet stream.
    ==========================

  65. This is similar to the temperature drop from July 7th 2009 (which I predicted) and gave a rapid drop in S. Hemisphere temperature with hundreds dying from cold in S. America. Being caused by a drop in the solar signal, the N. Hemisphere also cooled, which led to significant floods in many places in the N.H. for the middle 2 weeks of July.

  66. Roald

    If you look at the raw data ahead of where the 13-month rolling average line ends you’ll see it’s been quite a bit cooler in 2010 than in 1998. The 13-month rolling average this year will not exceed 1998. I suspect NASA had just a moment in time where the previous 12 month average bested 1998 so not wanting to let a press release opportunity get away unexploited…

  67. Mark

    Cook is confusing interpretations of gravity data with “actual measurements.”

    Sea level is (closer to) an actual measurement, and disagrees with the interpretations of gravity data.

  68. The Hurricane heat potential is looking pretty wimpy in the Gulf, Atlantic, and Caribbean, too.

  69. John F. Hultquist says:
    July 12, 2010 at 6:07 pm
    Steve –
    “The deep blue of the South American map is at the top and mostly east of the mountains. Along the west coast the area is white, that is, normal. So the south-central blue (below normal) area, being east of the mountains ought not to be overly influenced by the Humboldt Current. ”

    John, the issue is from which direction does the weather come from? Between 25N and 25S, the weather moves East to West. Below 25S and above 25N the weather primarily moves West to East. Every location is a little different than these numbers.

    In South America, it is mainly anything below 20S that is affected by West to East weather. The Andes do provide some blocking, but it is still going to be influenced by the ocean conditions west of the continent.

    Today, Argentina is rationing natural gas usage because of the colder weather.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100713-713336.html

  70. From the “European Weather Is Not Climate Except When You Look Long Enough Dept.” If you don’t already have this link you may want to take a look. The most interesting part, to me, was the inability to see a short term ‘trend’ (much like our predicament today). But there was one, and I guess, there still is!

    http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/wxevents.htm

    (Per Website Manager: “This site attempts to collect together in one place the most notable events in our ‘weather history’ across the British Isles. It has been built up in a rather ‘ad-hoc’ fashion, initially just for the latter third of the 20th century, then worked backwards as and when I stumbled across data etc., and of course kept up to date as far as possible.”)

  71. Hi, there! I am from Brazil. Sao Jose dos Ausentes to be more precise. We had -7 C last week and are having +1C now with a -10C real feel on account of the wind. We are used to cold in southern Brazil at this time of the year. But not for so many days in a row.
    Regards…

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